Comments on: Bill Mann “Great Argentine Land Grab”

By: Barry Hatfield

Barry Hatfield — Fri, 11 Jul 2008 03:45:56 +0000

Argentina is back to the same gvmnt debt-to-GDP level as when it crashed, circa 2002. Their farmers are unhappy with the 40% export tariff, so agriculture – which ought to be boming – is not doing that well. Both are negative for the peso. Better to wait until after the next crash.

By: StockGumshoe

StockGumshoe — Tue, 11 Mar 2008 18:51:43 +0000

Good point, Ponce. I like timber, too, particularly as a hedge (I’ve held Rayonier for years in the “timber” portion of my portfolio). I have no idea what the timber business is like in Argentina, though I do know that the pulp business is huge in South America because they can take advantage of fast-growing eucalyptus instead of using pine as we primarily do in the U.S. The big play on that is a Brazilian company, Aracruz Cellulose (ARA on the NYSE).

By: Ponce Nilo

Ponce Nilo — Tue, 11 Mar 2008 18:28:07 +0000

Timber is a good hedge against fast changing economies. If it does not sell during housing crisis it just keep on growing. Trees in Argentina grows 3 times faster due to warmer climate. If timber is good investment in the US then it would be much better in Argentina. Land is also very cheap there by comparison. Sjuggerud is big promoter on timber. His old teasers says that this is the secret investment of the super rich including Harvard and gain averages about 15% a year.

By: StockGumshoe

StockGumshoe — Tue, 11 Mar 2008 14:56:54 +0000

Thanks for the comment, Wayne — I imagine the Brazilians are saying the same thing about North America these days after seeing their investments evaporate with the falling dollar, but point well taken. The continent’s history does give pause to many investors, in some countries more than others.

By: Wayne

Wayne — Tue, 11 Mar 2008 14:44:05 +0000

Whenever South America is mentioned I recall a commentary by Cramer on “Mad Money.” Nevermind that Cramer IMO seems to sing different songs on different days: his objective is primarily to make the audience ‘Think’. What he said was that investments in South America must always be short-term. Everything there tends to turn around in unexpected ways much too often and too quickly to leave any investment for long or unwatched.