I noted in my original post that Seadrill had been downgraded by a couple analysts, causing the drop by a few percent today at the time of NY’s open.
There was also at least one upgrade, I’ve since learned — there’s an article about it here if you’re interested. Deutsche Bank upgraded them, with a target price of 210 Krone.
What does all this mean? In general, I’d say analysts are nervous about being aggressive before the earnings announcement, especially because of the recent run up. We should know more after earnings, whether good or bad, and the analysts will probably converge a bit more in their estimates. Earnings will still be quite small relative to the share price, since not many of the newbuilds are actually in use yet, so comments about the future will be what matters.