And second, I've had a lot of questions about the Irregulars service lately -- the Stock Gumshoe Irregulars (name shamelessly stolen from Sherlock Holmes' Baker Street Irregulars) is the Gumshoe membership program -- Irregulars are folks who have decided to support Stock Gumshoe financially, in order to keep the Gumshoe goodness flowing.

And it used to be that the Irregulars did so solely out of the goodness of their hearts, but in the last couple months I've been developing a special website that's just for the Irregulars -- so now they get a little something extra, whether they want it or not.

What's on the site? Two main things:

First, I do a more in-depth writeup, once a month, of a stock that I think is a compelling buy. I've done two of these so far, both of which are trailing the S&P, so do note that (unlike the Carrot Trader folks) I claim no particular ability to pick perfect entry points in stocks -- my analysis is based on fundamentals, and on long term holding periods of at least a year, with a preference for several years. I can tell you that I have personally done well in the market, but there's no way for you to verify that so it's largely a pointless claim ... and I'm not likely to double your money every year with my ideas. I hope these ideas will help everyone make money, but they are certainly not foolproof or guaranteed, and most of the time the stocks I'm interested in will be more volatile than the overall market, which means that both up and down moves are likely to be more pronounced. So far they're down moves, a few ticks worse than the S&P's performance over the last six weeks.

Second, I provide some additional commentary on the stocks that have come up in this space -- sometimes just some thoughts to try to tie things together, sometimes a comment on news items. Stuff that's generally not exciting enough for a full Gumshoe article, but that folks who follow those particular companies might find interesting.

And third, I disclose my full portfolio and share my buying and selling decisions. I've beaten the S&P500 over the long term with my portfolio, but not dramatically -- and certainly, my stocks have fallen badly this year along with everyone else's, and I'm probably too patient with many of my losers. I haven't checked my personal portfolio versus the S&P for the last few months, but it's probably underperforming so far this year. Still, I've had several folks ask about this, and it's here if you want it. I explain my buys and sells, and keep an updated list of all of my individual stock holdings. Since investing is always very personal, let me just be clear that there's no reason to think that the stocks I own will be appropriate for your needs.

So ... the Carrot Trader service just started up in earnest last week and I have no idea how they're going to perform. They have a very different timing perspective than I do, which might mean it could give you some good perspective that's quite different from mine (for example, the last stock I purchased personally had a "carrot sell" indicator two days before).

My Irregulars service started at the end of May, and, likewise, I have no idea how my favorite stocks are going to perform, confident though I am that they're good ideas with compelling potential. The Irregulars site is still in beta, mostly because the email service is not yet working well, so you might not get any email alerts from that site -- but the site is accessible and is being updated a few times a week, and the monthly stock writeups are happening now, with the next one scheduled for the end of July. I hope to have email alerts (no more than one per week) enabled for the Irregulars by the time the next monthly "best idea" article gets published, but it's possible that hope will not be realized for a bit longer yet.

You can sign up as an Irregular by clicking on the Irregulars Only link at the top of any page on the site, or by using this link here for membership signup. It's $49 a year, or $4.50 a month if you prefer to take it slow. Credit card payments are processed automatically through PayPal, or if you prefer you can sign up by mail with a check (Stock Gumshoe, PO Box 9751, Washington, DC 20016 -- don't forget to include your email). If you are one of the rare few who contributed in the past but didn't get an email notifying you that you have access to the private site, let me know and I'll track down your info.

There are a bunch of Irregulars already who are active in reading and commenting here, so perhaps they'll let you know if they think the new premium site is worthwhile or rubbish -- I promise not to edit any comments from them that might appear below, as long as they're not genuinely offensive. I doubt anyone has tried the Carrot Trader service yet, but if you have you can certainly feel free to comment on that as well.

And of course, you certainly don't HAVE to sign up for either of these services -- these are both bonuses on top of the regular Stock Gumshoe site and email alert, and the regular free site is not changing. I thank you for considering these pricier wares, but I also want you to know that I really appreciate all Gumshoe readers, whether you contribute or not, and I hope you'll continue visiting this space and spreading the good Gumshoe word.

Well, that ought to be enough shameless salesmanship to keep the lights on -- on to some teaser writeups next, so stay tuned!

full disclosure: I receive compensation for any Gumshoe readers who sign up for the Carrot Trader service.

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Article published July 15, 2008 ⋅  Email This Article ⋅  Print This Article ⋅ Subscribe to Free Daily Update

1. Any chance we can find out who the member is? Obviously we have a couple of well respected readers of your forum who know the T.A. side things very well.

   If they want to remain anonymous, I can certainly understand that.

   Thanks

   [Reply]

   

   StockGumshoe Reply:
   July 15th, 2008 at 12:37 pm

   Hi Alyosha — I don’t believe the folks behind Carrot Trader have been active forum participants, or have participated otherwise in the site, they’re just readers and they use the stock universe I gather here as their jumping-off point for their analysis. They might have participated on the site without me noticing, but I’m pretty sure they’re not affiliated with any of the more active forum folks you’re probably thinking of.

   [Reply]

   Posted by Alyosha | July 15, 2008, 11:57 am

2. To anybody who has been thinking about it but hasn’t joined yet, the Irregulars site is well worth the $4.50 a month. And no, I’m not a shill for the Gumshoe…just an average Joe trying to sift through the madness like everyone else. The honesty and quality are the same you get from the free site.

   [Reply]

   Posted by Jim | July 15, 2008, 1:44 pm

3. Aloysha and Jim,
   To be honest, I learn almost as much from the comments of the posters, as I do from Gumshoe,,, It is the intelligence and insightfulness of the readers of this column, As well as Travis himself, who make this site a Gold mine. Just my two cents.

   [Reply]

   Posted by EYOUNG | July 15, 2008, 1:55 pm

4. The carrot trader site is a joke!!! I signed up for it to check it out and promptly requested to be cancelled. I sure hope they honor my request. There was no place on the actual site to access a member section where I could request the cancellation. I had to “reply” to the automatically welcome email I received from them.

   [Reply]

   

   Carrot Trader Reply:
   July 15th, 2008 at 4:07 pm

   Hi Chris – thanks for your emails and feedback. The easiest way to cancel is directly through your PayPal account. We’ve added our phone number also should there be additional questions.

   As I told you in our emails, possibly your confused about the signal generation routines and interpretation We’ve been at this market timing for 25+ years and have very successful timing products.

   [Reply]

   Posted by Chris | July 15, 2008, 2:51 pm

5. Gumshoe

   What a brutal year! Schwab did an analysis for me and told me that last year I made 39%, so far this year I lost 14%. This is only July so I have the rest of the year to give back the rest. Sooner or later I’ll stop listening to advice. Your articles are the only reading these days that make any sense to me.

   [Reply]

   Posted by Raymond Finberg | July 15, 2008, 2:59 pm

6. I enjoy the site and the input of others. Just joined the irregulars as you know and find the added info i nsightful.
   We all do our DD when purchasing a stock but one of the toughest things is to know when to sell. It’s easy to say sell the losers and ride the winners but on your losers you always hope this last down day will see a turn-around. On the winners you are afraid that the next day will take away the gains you just made. Stop loses sound good but they can really kill you iif a stock tanks (you can end up selling way below your stop-loss). Any thoughts?
   Again, I really appreciate your efforts.
   Trevor

   [Reply]

   Posted by trevor peasland | July 15, 2008, 6:16 pm

7. To The Honorable Stock Gumshoe:

   Do you have a clue about Investment U’s “Shadow Stock Trading Strategy”? The teaser mentions Horacio Marquez, who supposedly has 25 years of financial experience. The service is on “sale” now for only $1,250 for the first year. The potential gains mentioned are staggering, of course.

   Have you ever studied this one, or would you consider it now?

   [Reply]

   

   Doug Reply:
   July 28th, 2008 at 11:45 am

   I have also been wondering what these “shadow stocks” are. Has anyone subscribed to this or know what its about?

   [Reply]

   Posted by Monnie | July 15, 2008, 8:58 pm

8. I’m an Irregular, and I can say I’m very impressed with both the quality and the quantity of information. I don’t how many WPM the Gumshoe can type, but it must be a lot. I don’t know how he can crank out such volumes of quality material day in and day out here and on the Irregulars site as well, and still have time to do all of his research. Gumshoe, are you sure you’re only one person?

   [Reply]

   Posted by Big Mo | July 15, 2008, 9:29 pm

9. Shoe–I sent a 60.00 check 6/12/08 and have not received e mail confirmation. The check has cleared my bank on the account of Barney Palmer & Associates, [xx]. Would appreciate a reply and I would like to be an Irregular if possible. Barney Palmer.

   [Reply]

   

   StockGumshoe Reply:
   July 18th, 2008 at 1:12 pm

   Barney, I removed some of your personal info from this comment just for your privacy. I’ve tried to email you this info a couple times, please check your spam filter for messages from admin@stockgumshoe.com or travis@stockgumshoe.com, or contact me on one of those addresses and I’ll send it again.

   [Reply]

   Posted by barney palmer | July 18, 2008, 8:38 am

10. Big Mo – Has to be more than one person. We learned in the Forum that the Thinkolator is actually five Cray Supercomputers wired in parallel. StockGumshoe’s IT department must be massive alone.

    [Reply]

    Posted by farley 5 | July 18, 2008, 9:00 am

11. I am interested to ferret out the merits of the carrot system and read their site completely (I think). my question is: are they looking only at the gumshoe universe of stocks or can I put in my portfolio and have their system help me with timing on other stocke not menti0oned in gumshoe.
    thanks.

    TJ

    [Reply]

    

    StockGumshoe Reply:
    July 19th, 2008 at 5:43 pm

    Hi TJ — I think that for this service they just look at the “Gumshoe Universe”, but they may offer other similar services … I’d ask them directly, or perhaps they’ll comment here.

    [Reply]

    

    Carrot Trader Reply:
    July 22nd, 2008 at 4:29 pm

    Hi TJ – Carrot Trader looks at the “Gumshoe Universe” only. The system algorithms are based on Prime-Line’s “Prime-Align” real-time scan software, and also the Prime-Line Matrix… see Prime-Line.com for further information. If you’d like a Radar preview of the signals for your portfolio email us with the symbols.

    [Reply]

    Posted by T Jenkins | July 19, 2008, 4:27 pm

12. Hi All @ Gumshoe,
    Do you have any info on
    ETF Master Trader.
    Thanks you have saved me from a few sucker plays.
    Lee

    [Reply]

    

    Lex Reply:
    August 19th, 2008 at 8:31 pm

    ETFMT is the real deal. I’ve done better than 600% gain in a year

    [Reply]

    

    elle maye Reply:
    November 8th, 2008 at 6:11 pm

    I did the ETFMT, but chose not to renew the “gotchya for more” CASH alerts. In theory looked great. Does not work in this market – they’re boasting first three months only,through early Sept, after which the so-called “system” did not pan out. Too many signals and whipsaws. I’m glad I decided to observe rather than invest on most of these alerts.

    [Reply]

    Posted by Duane Lee | August 19, 2008, 12:30 pm