Comments on: “Operation Global Rescue #2: A VERY Precious Commodity”

By: destry

destry — Fri, 12 Sep 2008 05:12:41 +0000

While I would defer to “nomad67″, on doings in Argentina; I have owned Cressy for awhile. I think I’ll keep it…All the “pros and cons” are
worth considering…And, to my mind, one other thing…Cressy is a majority family owned company.
If my experience with Mexico, offers any valid insight…The more powerful the family…The more protected their wealth and holdings are against
currency fluctuations, inflation, and political turmoil. Having said that; And being prepared to have “nomad67″ disagree, Cressy does offer the patient, long-term investor, an excellent foothold on the future of agriculture…Which, I firmly believe, will be one of the major crisis industries
of the next several years.

By: nomad67

nomad67 — Tue, 09 Sep 2008 22:52:45 +0000

I’m living in Argentina since 2003, i can confirm what gumeshoe says about the inflation, it’s between 20 and 30%, i agree with DT on the peso and the land, land and properties are now overvalued, i bought land in the Mendoza region in 2004, it went from $1500/ha to $10000/ha by 2008, (unfortunatly i sold to early) the average land in most of the provinces useful for plantation is now worth between $5000 and $10000/ha. Argentina is known to have a crise every 10 year, on the next one it’s worse buying. If CRESY realy has its land in its books at the mentioned price it’s worth a look, it’s only strange the stock is so bitten down and has such an ugly charts, i will follow it though.

By: DT

DT — Tue, 09 Sep 2008 19:38:08 +0000

With a PE and P/cashflow of mid 30’s I don’t know why anyone would buy into it. The P/BV is about 1 but who is valueing it? I would be very careful with this company as the Peso is being sustained by the Government – although historically properties have been tagged at USD prices, when the tide goes down, ALL goes down. It may be the exoticness (if such word) of owning in Arg. – like a Ferrari, oil changes cost a heck of a lot more than changing the oil on a GM.

With the geopoilitical issues and government, I would stay away from ARG for now as property seems to be overvalued at this time.

By: todd

todd — Tue, 09 Sep 2008 16:27:41 +0000

Guess I should have noted quarterly results before i posted above as see your land sale figures correct(as always). I did not realize that cresud owned land way up in Salta – this is about as far away NW of BA as you can be while still in same country. Does still look like interesting speculation.

By: todd

todd — Tue, 09 Sep 2008 16:17:30 +0000

Thanks for reminding of this one again Gumshoe. I have not played with this one for a few years, but it is volatile – much like the country where the land is – and did spend quite a bit of last winter in Argentina. No doubt it got hammered into spring due to crazy govt inspired strike. You know there a real problem when ag pxes at record levels and govt actually tries to put through policies that decrease production. you have piqued my interest though as even though chart looks like heck have to think this one of cheapest options on future ag growth in the world. I will also be checking on your figures of land sales as have to think these cheap. I believe that all of the land that cresud owns is in/around BA and this land is all worth significantly more than $225/ha – I would say more than 10 times this. If it is indeed on the books at $7 there is even more of a cushion on this equity. I would be interested if any other readers have more info on this. Thx for all your hard work.