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Stock Gumshoe Contest — Win $100 For Your Idea
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Welcome to the weekend after the worst week I can ever remember seeing in the stock market. I can’t do much to make you feel better about that, but I can give you a chance at $50 or $100 if you’ve got time to share an idea with the rest of us.
Famous investors of yore have shared lots of thought about what to do in these times, and most of them revolve around buying when everyone else is selling. Rothschild suggested that we buy when there’s blood in the streets, Buffett tells us to be greedy when others are fearful.
Well, today I wouldn’t be surprised to see at least a pinkish tinge to the sidewalks … and judging from my correspondence, people are as fearful now as they were after September 11, 2001 (for different reasons, of course). Who knows if it’s the bottom, but there certainly aren’t many enthusiastic buyers.
This market crash could hardly have come at a worse time — millions of Baby Boomers are hoping to retire over the next 10 years, and for those who were trying to goose their returns with a bit too much stock exposure those dreams of life on the road in a Winnebago may be pushed back a bit.
But if you’re like me, you can’t help but feel that in all this pain there may lie a bit of opportunity. And we know that in the short term, the market makes lots of mistakes as it rides emotional waves of fear and greed … so where does the opportunity lie?
Heck, maybe all our fear is misplaced and the fact that the Dow turned around late on Friday to move up 1,000 points or so (from intraday lows to intraday highs, at least) means we’re all fine, the last seller has left the building, and we’ll all be rich. No?
Now’s your chance to be the next Rockefeller or Buffett, though your rewards will be quite a bit more limited than theirs. I’m asking you to suggest a stock or other investment that you are tempted to buy right now, whether or not you can bring yourself to actually do so.
And I’ll award $50 each to two submissions — one whose idea sounds most interesting to me or is best presented, and the other to the person who suggests the stock that does best between now and election day. That’s only three weeks, so it’s a crazy time frame, but if I wait much longer I’ll forget to keep track. You can still come back and take some bragging rights if you make a good longer-term call.
And yes, the same person can win both if that’s how it works out. So you might just win a hundred bucks if you’ve got the magic October touch.
One catch: I’ll only reward the money if at least 20 people submit ideas.
The rules:
- You can submit only one idea, unless you fool me by using two different email addresses or accounts. Enter your idea in the comment form below.
- Submission deadline is Monday morning, before the stock market opens in NY. If you believe you’ll get great insight from the Asian markets on Sunday night, or the premarket Monday morning, feel free to wait until the last minute — 9:30 EST is the deadline Monday morning.
- If two of you have the same idea, the first one submitted gets credit.
- The Stock Gumshoe short ban is in effect — these have to be long positions in either exchange-traded debt or equity. You can choose an ETF or closed end fund if you like, but not a short or ultrashort ETF, or a short position in anything. And no, there’s no ticker for “coffee can in the backyard,” though I suppose you could pick the GLD ETF if you like.
- You can submit just a stock ticker if you want, but if you’d like to explain yourself please keep it fairly brief — no more than a couple paragraphs. You’ll have to explain yourself for a chance at the first $50.
I know that many of you wouldn’t part with your money right now no matter what, even if it was Mother Theresa at the door trying to sell you a bar of gold for a dollar, but I know most of you have at least a little temptation — who thought that GE would be in the teens? Or that Microsoft would trade at a single digit PE and have a dividend yield that’s actually worth looking at? And who knows, is something going to happen this weekend that changes everything?
So … what’s your stock market temptation?
———–
Looking to learn? There are plenty of good trading courses out there, but for traders just starting out, they’re a bit pricey. Here’s an alternative — and an “on the house” preview!
The author will always disclose any direct long or short equity, debt or option position in any stocks written about as of the day of publication, and will not trade in any stocks mentioned for three days (72 hours) after publication. Full disclaimer is at the bottom of the page.
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231 comments for “Stock Gumshoe Contest — Win $100 For Your Idea”
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CF
I love the fundamentals on this stock. Solid earnings and earnings growth and no debt. A single digit PE too! This sector got creamed recently and I think that this stock is way undervalued. And I bought 1000 shares on Thursday, so I am putting money where my mouth is!
[Reply]
(AAPL) It is a good buy and nothing has changed
about it’s fundamentals, except it is much cheaper.
[Reply]
Well, I got out of all stocks I owned and bought 2/3rds in GLD and 1/3 in cash. With all these Billions being pushed into the market I can only think of “inflation” as in the German Mark and Italian fiat 50 years ago. No gold standard.
Joke’s on me however as Gold is going down.???
[Reply]
ME3tv Reply:
October 11th, 2008 at 9:33 am
Gold may have had its run with last year’s inflated raw materials. Now the word is “deflation” and maybe gold will be stable as a “safe haven” but not run up so much because of depression type economy and de-flation.
[Reply]
Clint Reply:
October 12th, 2008 at 8:39 am
Gold is a hedge against inflation and the dollar dropping. The dollar is stronger now since the world still sees the US as safer, and we are in a period of severe deleveraging (deflation). I believe hedge funds and other very large investors/speculators have run up the value of so many commodities, including gold, (like ME3tv said) that the usual market wisdom doesn’t apply right now. Gold may still come up in early 2009 but I don’t believe the predictions of $3000 gold will come true anytime soon. Just my opinion. A complete meltdown would change everything (in which case, physical gold is what you want) but right now, it’s the fear driving things. Lowering ratings is adding fuel to the fire, as well as mark-to-market which, despite Friday’s change, still applies and isn’t crystal clear.
[Reply]
AAAAAAGGGGGGGGGHHHHHHH Once again those brilliant graduates from Harvard and Wharton have conned the general public into ‘buying their crap’. Cramer may sound crazy but he isn’t too far off – Kellog, Caterpillar and if you are a gambler Morgan Stanley – Kellogs a staple, Caterpillar is global and unless the world hits a depression it will continue to grow and finally one of America’s ‘last standing’ investment banks. If the Chines pony up the Billions then the stock will triple and one last word, be careful of Muni Bonds because they too could fail
For those with cash, enjoy your new millions, because they are coming Thx RS
[Reply]
Brad M Reply:
October 11th, 2008 at 12:30 pm
Gandalf14,
I am about 70% cash and have been for over 6 months. That is not to say that I haven’t lost money in the insane market because I have. Most of the money I left in the market was in dividend paying preferreds and MLP. Both of which have had their respective heads handed to them of late.
I am curious why you think that having cash right now will translate into millions down the road. Can you eloborate? Do you really think this mess of a stock market is going to turn around any time in the 5-10 years? It looks like they have really screwed the pooch this time… Hope I am wrong…
Brad
[Reply]
Parker Reply:
October 11th, 2008 at 11:40 pm
Brad…don’t be sad….be a happy lad….you haven’t been had….check out SDS, SKF, DXD and SJF…your money will grow with the Dow going low….but have your finger on the trigger..as the spring tightens…be ready to press and change your discretion as the market can turn in either direction!……Good Luck nonetheless…….just do your best….remmember to never use your markers…..invest with care so long….Parker
[Reply]
Buy PRU or LNC.
Insurance companies have been trashed along with anything financial. Both the above have options available. If you think they will evaporate with the rest of the market, you can buy insurance on them in the form of a put option.
[Reply]
Fanni Mae, only one way from here!
[Reply]
I like prospect capital (psec) because of the dididend potential
[Reply]
NFP
Solid cash flow from life insurance premiums. Excellent management. The only reason the stock is so low currently is because of the word “financial” in its name.
[Reply]
ken Reply:
November 8th, 2008 at 12:27 am
dividend to be suspended http://www.reuters.com/article/marketsNews/idINBNG39181320081105?rpc=44
[Reply]
Knightsbridge Tankers has my vote (VLCCF). A low price earnings ratio coupled with very little long term debt makes this an attractive buy. And the dividend ain’t to shabby either.
[Reply]
John Christensen Reply:
October 12th, 2008 at 5:30 am
That looks like catching a falling knife. Good luck.
I am in GLD for the long term because I have faith in our government, they will continue to screw things up and gold will hold value while the US$ continues falling.
[Reply]
What is cheap? Is KO, XOM cheap? I have zero idea of what the US government is doing: buying banks; buying 79.9% of AIG; tossing in billions here-and-there.
Some say we have deflation, othes are adamant about inflation. Home prices going down, unemployment going up.
CF, AAPL are named as “cheap”? There has to be some names off the beaten path that are a lot cheaper.
My “cheap” stock? Who knows. I’m going to watch “You Don’t Mess with the Zohan” and think about it.
[Reply]
Beard Company, BRCO. I began buying this company in may at $0.50 per share and its now trading in the $4.00 to $6.00 range. BRCO owns a 23% interest in an Alaska Mining venture named Geohedral LLC in which I also have an interest. Geohedral has filed claims on 52,000 acres of black sand property and will complete core tests and assays in early spring. The existing known reserves have a net asset value exceeding $35 per outstanding BRCO share (9.4 million shares). These sands contain iron, titanium, gold and silver reserves. With completion of core tests, the expected net asset values could quadruple to well over $120 per share. Google BRCO and do you own diligence. This is one of a kind!
[Reply]
FRO
Very high dividend yield, fleet is all double-hull, oil will still be transported by sea in large amounts. Day-rates are down a lot, but come winter, should rise again. Re-invest the huge dividend, and You’ll do just fine.
[Reply]
Sandi Reply:
October 11th, 2008 at 1:46 pm
I love this stock and huge divident and just bought more to price average. But the word seems to be lower for a while. Hope you’re right!
[Reply]
CS, DSUP, FRE, FMD
Get ‘em while they are cheap. Cemex, and Dayton superior will be among those that grow in the coming “depression” because governments will depend heavily on public works (roads, bridges) to keep people employed from the construction industry (which will be stagnant for a few years). FRE may be slow to crank up but once the banks are trusted again – money will flow as houses change hands and a large inventory of homes gets worked off. Those homes loans will have to go through the Freddie Mac machine (now owned 80pct by us taxpayers). The 20pct free market owners of stock in FRE will see that company stabilize and the value of the stock rise – perhaps dramatically. The govt. will ease out of its ownership as things improve. FMD is banking but specialized in student loans. This will be a critical resource for a lot of people that need to get re-educated or newly educated while they are otherwise unemployed the next few years.
[Reply]
SNDK
The SanDisk board recently turned down a $26 buyout offer from Samsung. SNDK had a low of 14.55 and closed at 15.92 yesterday. I suspect the board has something going on, because Samsung could be buying a lot of cheap shares here.
[Reply]
Northgate Minerals, NXG
This gold/copper miner has been diving for 6 months. Many stories behind the dive: Kemess South copper/gold mine winding down, no Kemess North approval; copper/gold price reversals on “end” of Asian miracle; but the big news, I think, is that they have $73M (face value) in auction rate securities structured by Lehman on their balance sheet.
Latest dive below $1 is due, I believe, to emotion about the Lehman CDS valuation of less than $.09 on the dollar to creditors. However, their alphabet soup exposure is ARS, not CDS, which are still paying interest. Upside possible from govt. guarantees, legal settlement, buyout, and of course metals breakout.
[Reply]
Albert Galick Reply:
October 11th, 2008 at 9:37 am
Almost forgot my disclosure: I own NXG
Also, I know of no legal action, so a better speculation would have been tax loss writeoff.
[Reply]
Bunge, BG
Everybody’s gotta eat. This is a vertically in-
tegrated agribusiness with the main focus on soy beans. Also in the fertilizer business.
[Reply]
National City/NCC is a $2 stock that is reportedly now adequately capitalized to endure this debacle. Wall Street Journal reports they are in talks with several banks to be acquired. Either scenario points to a situation where upside seems to outweigh downside risk. For contest purposes though, it may not play out by the election.
[Reply]
GM and GE, I know that’s two, but at today’s prices we are in a “two-fer”; two for the price of one. Anyway, a “billion” years ago a good friend, who was about 18 years old at the time, borrowed $500.00 from his dad and bought 1,000 shares of Chrysler, yep, 50 cents a share and ready for the toilet. That gamble started him on the road to becomming a multi-millionaire. There are many “Chryslers” out there ready for the plucking.
Sooooooo, Why GM and GE? They are huge and,in my opinion, under priced.But the “real” reason I am buying a lot of these is because they both start with the letter G.. GEE WHIZ! (this is as good of a reason as I’ve heard from the “experts” lol
[Reply]
TRA – Extremely low P/E with fantastic production/ demand. Just above 52 week low. Tremendous upside potential.
[Reply]
Avalon Ventures (AVVTF)
This is a mining company involved in mining rare earth elements (REEs). These are essential in many modern applications.
REEs are essential to the manufacture of Hybrid vehicles. However the world supply of REEs comes mainly from China, and Avalon’s most interesting prospect is in Canada. It is also cash rich for its size – a huge bonus during a credit crisis, Further, judging by past deals they have a really smart management.
[Reply]
NYX-8.2 pe,4.2 Div, with a peg of .40. Down approx 70% from high, what more could you ask for.
[Reply]
BHI, having dropped from 90 in July to the low 30’s as of Friday. Revenues and earnings both growing, buying back shares, pays a safe dividend, and has about twice as much cash as short term debt.
[Reply]
PCR, price 17 after hitting a low under 15, no debt,forward pe of 4.4 $15 of cash/share,enterprise value of .02.
[Reply]
Warning! Stock picking contests are NOT investments. They are for stocks that folks think will go up BIG TIME. Along with that comes RISK. So here it is:
IOC
This risky stock has been trashed along with everything else. They Drill for Gas in Papua New Guinea. They do upstream, refining, LNG, and downstream. Pre-Announced yesterday. Will it pop in 3 weeks? DK!
[Reply]
farley 5 Reply:
October 11th, 2008 at 10:05 am
Fair Disclosure – I just bought this one Thursday. None of my clients have this due to the risk.
[Reply]
StockGumshoe Reply:
October 13th, 2008 at 10:27 am
I like that they’ll probably be selling their gas to Japan and Korea where LNG still gets good prices, and not to the U.S., where prices are so cheap the producers are trying to wrangle a way to get around the government’s effective prohibition on increased exports.
[Reply]
PWE (&/or AVV) – Prime West Energy Trust and/or Advantage Energy Trust. Two Canadian oil and gas trusts with good fundamentals, paying off debt instead of increasing dividends during boom time. Panic selling lowering prices to where they probably were when oil was $18/bl whose dividends as a result are now above 20% – eligible as qualified dividends, with the 15% Canadian tax retrieveable using US foreign tax credit form. Hey – where else can you get 25% dividend?
[Reply]
David Reply:
October 12th, 2008 at 11:21 pm
FRO’s dividend is 38.7% at the current stock price of ~$31. TDAmeritrade’s assessment of PWE: “PWE’s dividend is not sustainable. Over the past 12 months the company paid more in dividends than it earned. Over time this cannot continue.” (same comment for FRO, by the way).
[Reply]
PAYX, dividend above 4, no debt, plenty of cash on hand. Strong earnings. Very good time to be bullish on this company.
[Reply]
AUY
Who knows if it will work. It’s complete guess work with this market.
[Reply]
BRK.B…
why not tap into a sure winner at a bargin price ?
berkshire is a very great buy right now, if a bit on the pricey side) and over ten years has had stellar returns and gains in share value…the stock spreads its investments across a broad segment of the market and is definitely vested in technologies for the future..safe and sane ain’t bad !!!
[Reply]
StockGumshoe Reply:
October 13th, 2008 at 10:28 am
Whoever it was that snuck in and picked up some BRKB at $3,000 at the open on Friday morning should stop buying lottery tickets — that’s all the luck one person deserves. Just goes to show, when things go manic and there are no buyers, sometimes you can buy low volume stocks at ridiculous prices.
[Reply]
AVP – Avon Products
During bad times nothing like a small expenditure to make one feel better. Strong base of loyal customers. Baby-boomers. Dividend. Lower priced cosmetics.
[Reply]
Nobody has mentioned Canadian Royalty Trusts. The largest is Penn West Energy Trust (PWE) and is trading as of Friday’s close at a yield of 24%. I believe this distribution will remain stable and is paid monthly.
[Reply]
I would suggest stock purchase of Campbell Soup CBP as a long term buy.
[Reply]
BTU – Peabody Energy, way down from its high of $88, now $28. The price of coal is still high. I know about deflation and all, but this “black gold” is a necessity for more and more utilities overseas. Demand is still way up, and so will the price be too. The devaluation of the dollar will probably help too. PE of 14, future PE of 4. Practically a limitless supply of a necessary commodity with an lengthly expensive startup cost.
[Reply]
My nomination would be BUD. InBev has announced it will buy BUD for $70/share. They announced this before the financial markets fell apart, but the deal is still going through. Now BUD sells for less than $60, so if the deal happens, it is good for more than $10/share. InBev says it will sell warrents to finance part of the deal. If you think this has merit, you buy BUD which, by the way, is still having a good year.
[Reply]
I’ve been increasing my position in XLF since the bloodletting began. If I could afford it, I’d buy more on the theory that if the financial sector doesn’t ever rebound, we’re all in the crapper anyhow. (I’m such a small-timer that anyone can safely ignore my advice.)
[Reply]
GRMN – Low Debt. Good Cash Flow. Current Ratio of 3.14. They have their eye on the future. Why is this stock going down? I am buying up as many shares as I can afford. I’ll pat myself on the back 10 years from now.
[Reply]
FRO here also–price has come down from ~70 to as low as the high 20’s (sob–by not waiting an extra hour, I paid high 30’s instead of low 30’s for most of my current position), and the dividend, should it continue more or less as it has, is drool-worthy. I am thinking more long-term with this.
[Reply]
Maybe a gun and a mask is the answer. If you get away with it you have your nestegg. If you get caught, your retirement worries are over!
[Reply]
FXI
No way an entire country is worth 70% less than it was a year ago. They have trillions of dollars hoarded for a rainy day. They own trillions in USA govmint treasuries to use as political leverage. (Lord, please don’t let them cash them in.) They kill their crooks and liars. They have cheap labor. They have no Democrats advocating for tax and spend freebies in order to buy votes. They have a monolithic central committee that controls all rather than the octopi like governing structure that we are watching flail away. They don’t have CNBC polluting their minds. They don’t have ideologues critiquing their every move. While we have peaked, they are just getting started. They don’t mind playing dirty and being chummy with scum if it serves their interest. They have a unified population that has tasted the good life and will never go back to an agrarian, 3rd world way of life. They’re what we were from 1880 to 1928.
[Reply]
GERN
Mccain or Obama both will improve the outlook here.
[Reply]
Ryan Reply:
January 31st, 2009 at 6:27 pm
I’m feeling pretty good right about now.
[Reply]
GM – pre-bankruptcy sale?
** Auto industry icon, not only in the US but the world.
** Pool of skilled/experienced engineering talent.
** Savvy buyers waiting in the sidelines – Jap/China auto company; private equity.
** Buyer of last resort – US Govt?
[Reply]
AIG…………the government is backing this one with billions of dollars….and it’s a steal at less that $2.00 a share. Let the buying begin.
[Reply]
pagan Reply:
October 11th, 2008 at 8:28 pm
that gov money will be going in execs pockets
AIG has lost trust world wide.
[Reply]
S.MSC Reply:
October 18th, 2008 at 11:52 am
Word is, that on Tuesday, October 21st, the 156 billion dollars (or so) in CDS’s taken out on Lehman will have to be paid to the contract holders. Unfortunately, AIG is the backer. Sure you still want to own this…
[Reply]
wow, We got out of the market entirely in 1999 because we thought there would be a Y2K meltdown. We put all our $ in a self directed IRA, invested in a high risk off shore boutique hotel, which was fraught with fraud, and luckily we got out by the skin of our teeth and got our intitial investment back after three years, but took a beating on the cost of the maintenance fees on the IRA. We didn’t use it for other things. We made good profits in Real Estate investing and got out at the peak. We have no debt,own our home, cars, and have a measley 135K in Ira CD’s/ I have been speculating on paper only with stock and really like Visa (V), could have doubled my investment if I had cashed out then, but it is back down to a little above what I paid for it.($44)
We are so unsavvy about the market. Had a really bad experience with a financial advisor, so don’t trust them. We are 65 and 70. In remarkably good health, but we know that what we have is not going to see us through another 20 years or so and we do expect to live that long or longer.OUr 135K IRAs matures next month, shortly after the elections, and we don’t know what to do with it!! what would you do?
[Reply]
Wayne Reply:
October 11th, 2008 at 1:24 pm
I am your age with similar problems. My 401K is being transferred into a Scottrade Taxable Account slowly so as to keep taxes down and re-invested for cash return.
Subscribe to “Personal Finance.” I think the other premium offerings of KCI are too expensive for me, but subscribe to all their free on-line newsletters. Look at MLP’s and Canadian Trusts. Good dividends as a monthly/quarterly trickle, and Neil George will give you a decent list of pre-screened suggestions.
Read the new book by Alex Green, “The Gone Fishin’ Portfolio.” If the listed funds survive the current chaos, they offer good monthly cash dividend returns. I prefer the ETF versions which are also listed in the book.
Do not forget, 2% max of your average annual new money for advice and fees, 4% max of your portfolio in any single security.
Gumshoe, my entry is ATP-UN.TO (TSX).
[Reply]
vicky caskey Reply:
October 28th, 2008 at 1:08 pm
Thanks Wayne
[Reply]
Tempted to buy ISRG, Intuitive Surgical.
If I had to buy it would be PGH, Penngrowth Energy Trust due to high dividend yield to be collected while waiting for a price recovery.
[Reply]
Encana…ECA on the Canadian TSX and same symbol on NYSE I believe. Natural gas prices and the general downturn have hammered prices for this stock…but with a good solid dividend, growing production in both oil and natural gas this one will go up…sometime soon.
[Reply]
westinghouse air brake technologies (NYSE:WAB) We all need freight and transit rail lines.
[Reply]
WWE For those of us non-elitists out there. Price has held steady,even through these troubling times . Between $13 & $16. Not a bad dividend also,was raised to $0.36/share.They have expanded into Europe,China,India, Mexico,& South America.Guys & gals follow their story lines,essentially soap operas(telenovelas) with sweat.Legions of loyal fans worldwide & they just keep on buying those PPV’s,Action Figures,Apparel,DVD’s,etc.
[Reply]
SI
They can build the hospital, equip the hospital, transport the baby boomers to the hospital. Repeat.
[Reply]
buy BBT Solid bank–we all need banks swinging 20 to 30% in recent days, but really seems to bounce back. Buy on a drop and don’t panic! Pays good dividends if you want to hold long term
Just my opinion, all risk are your own!
[Reply]
NASDAQ:SPWRa SunPower – alternative energy is a major need. Sunpower is near it’s 52 week low and a solid company. Also like Dell, again solid company near 52 wk low.
[Reply]
PXP—Plains Exploration
If you believe, as I do, that gold will be the hedge in this market, then I think this is a great choice. 1. They are quite profitable. 2. The Chairman of the Board (insider trades) has sold in the high 40’s and 50’s and bought $10 million worth in the mid-thirties in late September. Obviously he is under-water on those but the stock moves with gold prices and gold has dropped, comeback, then traded a little sideways lately. I don’t think gold has been the flight-to-safety that it should be yet but if the equity market moves down again, especially medium-term, which I think it will, gold will have a nice move up and so will this company. You could buy GLD but its a bit rich for my budget. Personally, any rally in the markets, which would be short-term for sure and PXP will fall a bit more, then I’m buying PXP and probably some longer-term calls. If gold goes to 1200 in the next 12 months this will be a very nice opportunity stock.
Good Luck to everyone. Some interesting picks in this contest.
[Reply]
Oliver R. Reply:
October 13th, 2008 at 1:09 pm
Don’t know where you are getting your information from, but last time I checked PXP is in the oil and gas business and should not be moving according to movements in gold.
[Reply]
Ship Finance International Limited (SFL) – They own a lot of ships and lease them to different shipping companies for long periods of time. Should give them steady income. And they were spun off from FRO and have a profit sharing deal in place, so if FRO does well, so does SFL. SFL also has a good dividend.
Disclosure: I own SFL
[Reply]
FNM. I figure that at just over $1.00 a share (Friday close at $1.08), a dime increase is almost 10%. The graph on this puppy looks like a heart monitor, and maybe it is! $2.16 a share is a 100% increase, and I think it will do that, especially since George and company want to go out on the upswing. Or else, nobody will visit his presidential library.
[Reply]
Buy AAPL -It is grabbing market share really quickly and is on top of the list that people would want to buy now that is cheap.
[Reply]
FRE.
Freddie Mac is so low right now it has to look up to see bottom. Can’t go anywhere but up.
[Reply]
For years attempting to choose a single issue just doesn’t seem to be the smart play. Earning s can be good now, but just watch what happens if management mentions a possible slow down in the future. The averaging of buckets of stocks in the ETFs seem to work much better these days.
If the market is going to have positive attitude for a minute, then the Russell ETF (IWP)ISHARE RS MC GR INDX, has good volume so you can get in AND out and the chart has a recent slope that puts the 50% point at 40-ish; almost $10 above current levels. A return to Labor Day (that just doesn’t seem that long ago) pricing is $20.
[Reply]
…rich companies like IMMR. Immersion will rock when others continue to roll.
[Reply]
SKF. This financial ultrashort shoud continue to climb asmore banks fold.
[Reply]
MOO Market Vectors Global Agribusiness ETF
It’s still like being back in the ’60s with computers. This is an industry that is very much in the beginning of its cycle.
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Bigstring Corp us otcbb has found a way to retrieve sent emails, limit views, and prohibit the saving of same and forwarding as well.MSN news yesterday had an article on how unretrievable accidently sent emails can cost millions. These guys have apparently solved the universal problem.
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I sold an investment, in which I had lost confidence, and invested in agriculture: a load of crap from the local dairy, seeds from the local seed company, clear drop cloth from walmart, and some rebar from lowes. Miraculously, I “made” a 60% reduction in my summer food bill, and using the rebar and drop cloth now have a “winter” garden that I suspect will “make” even more. The return on the original investment was, so far, about 400%. I may diversify this winter with some hens if I can sneak them into the subdivision. I even did some foriegn investing with a row of chinese cabbage. Sort of a diversification/hard asset play.
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Nan Reply:
November 1st, 2008 at 6:37 pm
Two green thumbs up for your post Charlie! Our investment in our hens has probably given us a 600% return! LOL. But lately a big rat snake is swallowing some profits, still, we’re beating the pants off the S&P.
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I placed the entire stock listings of NYSE, AMEX and NASDAQ on the wall, stood back 15 feet and threw a dart. GMO apparant winner! (AS GOOD A WAY TO PICK STOCKS AS WHAT THE EXPERTS HAVE DONE FOR ME!!)
Not yet in production but with the demand for their product Molybdenum, and proven and probable reserves of over 1.5 billion pounds this could be an excellent short and long term investment. Like everything else, the stock has plummeted and is now below $2.00. For those who don’t know, Moly is utilized in steel to produce stainless and high strength steel (it’s also utilized in a wide variety of other things including oil and natural gas drilling and refining).
I do own shares of GMO and although I know there are hundreds of other opportunities out there now, I am buying more(nothing ventured, nothing gained)!
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MO Altria, A no brainer. 7.6% div. Solid international company. Down from 79.
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Vincent Fertitta Reply:
October 11th, 2008 at 2:55 pm
Another nobrainer, you have metioned is ABB. Also buy QQQX, index on the nasdaq with a huge Div. I bought these on the market pullback around 1:45 cdt time yesterday. Already own Prgn, Pwe, Line and others.
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PVX, pays a 23%(!!!) return that is only taxes at 15% because its a return of capital. Onlty risk is oil going to $50.
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I’m looking at Coke, Wal-Mart, Disney, and Exxon-Mobil. All these companies are world dominating franchises and will be here for a very long time.
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C yes Citigroup don’t laugh! that 9% div. will be protected with the “almost free” money from JPMorgan when they settle for breach.
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COS.UN. Canadian Oil Sands
Yah, lots of “talk” about alternative energy…lots of talk about OIL…up/down/sideways….the foundation (like it or lump it is oil) and the heart of that operation for many years to come is “the oil tar sands”.
COS is an energy trust and a combination of the “biggies” like” Suncor, Syncrude and Imperial Oil. For those in the States….get familiar with those names !! Here is Canada they are staples.
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My entry is WMT – Walmart
When the going gets rough, WMT is everyone’s best friend!
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Running Fox Resources (RFXRF o-t-c or RUN tsx.) Micro-cap Canadian resource co., price down close to 90% off its highs last year, but unlike most of these sort of companies, RUN has solid revenues from gas sales and oilfield services to help fund its exploration & expansion. Recent insider purchases of private placement. Prospective for oil, gas, gold & uranium, & working in environmental remediation. A steal at this price level, and so small that any significant buying interest will cause a skyrocketing price. Note: I own some, and this rec is made with Farley 5’s comments (#24 above) in mind.
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Accuray, Inc (ARAY)
Sitting at low for the year, will report earnings just before election deadline. I think it will be positive and will ignite share price. Solid company, great management and unique product: CyberKnife. Zaps cancer tumors anywhere in the body in outpatient situation.
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Ron Schoenfeld Reply:
October 11th, 2008 at 2:29 pm
Great opportunity at these prices and I wouldn’t be surprised if a much larger company buys them out. Their technology according to some doctor friends is amazing and another friend used it to treat prostate cancer having six treatments rather then the normal 40 to 50 with great results.
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Eric Sensiba Reply:
October 12th, 2008 at 12:26 pm
ARAY is a great pick not only because of management and stock price but more importantly for the usefulness and marketing of the product itself. One-of-a-kind!
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My top pick is COP, poised to gain if crude goes up, and when it goes down, poised to gain because of its many ancillary businesses. Is cash rich (approximately $12-13 per share is cash) has a position in Lukoil, synthetic fuels and chemicals, and a healthy dividend of $ 1.88. Has been beaten down from the mid’ $90’s to the mid- $40’s. I believe the long term thesis that crude prices will start to rise again, and that emerging markets will grow, despite current economic issues, which are short term. COP is poised to profit, and this is a wonderful opportunity to start nibbling and be patient.
Hey, Gummie, if you pick me, you can keep your prize, because I would just use it to become a stock gumshoe irregular, anyway!
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StockGumshoe Reply:
October 11th, 2008 at 2:23 pm
Oooohhh, sucking up to the judge — I like it!
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Don’t go ultra short, go ultra long, the financials UYG – Proshares ultra financials. The banking sector has been oversold. The Fed is going to reinflate the financial sector big time. Why not place your bet with a Fed that is cutting interest rates down to next to nothing. I bought UFG Friday @7.71 per share.
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Foolster Reply:
October 11th, 2008 at 2:41 pm
What I bought Friday was UYG not UFG. I hit send before check and validate.
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I would buy 4 stocks in different industries:
MOS – FPL – BMY & NCTY and I’d dollar cost average on all four for the next 12 months.
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CDE, Coure de Alenes mining company. I have been watching this company for six months, it has hit bottom this week. I keep waiting for silver’s moment to arrive…it’s getting closer. CDE should be good for 400-500% gains when it happens.
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THINKER70! No matter what the oil price does, up or down and “opinions” (guesses really) are all over the map, the fact remains that it still has to be transported! DEMAND is not likely to ease by much, particularly in the growing economies in Asia, China and India in particular, and much of that crude is coming from Brazil and Venezuels, (long hauls) so a tanker company with double hulled vessels, still one third family owned with a history of 58 profitable quarters and a share price at half of NAV, a 5% dividend and strong share repurchase program seems a good bet1 I am talking about the Greek (famous as shippers) Tsakos Energy Navigation TNP/NYSE Co. the Tsakos family has developed since the 1880,s!
This is the latest pick from Chris Mayer editor of Capital and Crisis, a wily seasoned ex banker with a great track record of picking excellent value plays after extreme due diligence research!
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elissa S. Reply:
October 11th, 2008 at 8:21 pm
This is a very interesting pick. They report 11/5. Can’t wait to see their numbers!
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Cheez!! $50/100 buxx…Are you trying to bribe us or buy us off?? Ha Ha! Actually, After the awful downturn taken in the last weeks, your offer is kind of refreshing!! Cheers!
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with $13.1 mil in cash ad the indications read favorable at this time.
Zix Corporation provides Internet-based applications in a Software-as-a-Service model to connect, protect, and deliver information, enabling the use of the Internet for applications requiring security in the healthcare, finance, insurance, and government sectors primarily in the United States. It operates in two segments, Email Encryption and e-Prescribing.
Between now and it’s October 28th earnings release it is my hopes it will be per centages above it’s Friday 10/10/08 close of $1.54.
Please resarching ZIXI if you consider this recommendation in any way.
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Oliver R. Reply:
October 13th, 2008 at 1:12 pm
Bought Zixi in 2006 at .75 and sold it at $5 close to year end last year. Have been interested in rebuying, but I’m still waiting.
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I like JPM i.e JP Morgan
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Hi Travis,
my Idea would be to Sell Puts on great companies and then should more fear enter the market and my puts are exercised i would gladly but the company on the cheap. Well, you said to pick one idea, ok then, i would sell the 12.5 strike price Puts on EPE and pray that they would be exercised, cause EPE is a wide moat company with free cash flow, they just raised there dividends, they are trading like an oil company which makes no sense, and their yield is currently at 10%!!! So, to get free money by selling puts and hope more fear grips the market so that my put is exercised at 12.5 would be a great investment. i can do this with a ton of other high quality stocks, but you said to mention only one. i hope this qualifies.
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Petrohawk Energy – HK. Closed Friday @ $9.74, down from an alltime high of $54.49 July 2nd. This is a technical trade. Friday gave a doji candlestick, with stochastic well below 25% and the close one standard deviation below the 20-day MA. Natural gas closed at $6.52. While I realize natural gas inventories grew in the last reporting period, we are going into fall and winter. HK is ideally positioned to rebound from what I think was an overshoot to the downside, probably caused by 401-k and mutual fund selling. A rebound rally should be in the offing.
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GE Son-in-law a designer for nuclear division. He says word is that the Dems say build only 10 power plants in the next 10 years but GOP says build 40. Election should grow or stay GE Nuclear Div. Other side of GE good buy now but I am novice at this. Waiting, I guess to see which way to go. May buy some anyway. Any help appreciated.
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an etf tracking the top 50 china stocks,
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I have collapsed my RRIF or whats left of it. Holding cash to invest by Nov/08 in a Canadian IGW REIT Pays monthly 10.5 % increases the NAV value is not listed on any stock market payments are Div.Very little tax. Called League Assets Corp.
http://WWW.league.ca To get Blue Book of Groups ETHICS.
Bob F.
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TV Guy Reply:
October 12th, 2008 at 3:26 pm
BOB…did the Google…but the web site gets a tad vague…can you tell me the ticker on this (and unit cost) to update your sumission idea.
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Thomas Beyer Reply:
March 25th, 2009 at 11:21 am
How sustainable is this 10% IGW REIT distribution and ever increasing valuation in light of FALLING commercial rents and FALLING commercial shopping center valuations ?
Consider: a shopping center with a NOI (net operating income) of $600,000 and a yield (or CAP rate) of 6% used to be worth $10M. Now, assuming a flat rent (a big if !!) and higher mortgage rates for shopping centres the yield would be 8%, or a valuation of $7.5M.
Assuming a mortgage of $5M, the equity would drop from $5M to $2.5M .. a 50% drop in equity (or unit value) .. NOT an increase !!
If you give me $100,000 I too can give you 20% .. no problems .. for 5 years .. then oops .. we have a problem !
Ask yourself if a 10% distribution is attainable from cash-flow of properties alone .. or does it have to be augmented by re-finance of (falling !!) asset values and cash by new investors ?
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TRA i.e. Terra Industries. Trading under $20 with a trailing PE of 4.71, expected to earn $6.80 next year giving the company a forward PE of 2.9, announced a buy back program, recently started paying a dividend, great balance sheet, sitting on $8.19 per share in CASH!!!! All the ducks are in a row.
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It can’t get any better than SBR. dividend wise and tax wise.
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SRS – is a small dunk, I have been upside down on this ETF for the past 6 months, expecting that Commercial Real estate is going into the toilet. Just sold for minimal % gain. Next week should be consolidating and witin a few weeks once the euphoria, the sugar rush is gone this ETF will take off.
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I’m with Mr. Gumshoe on this. I like GE and will probably buy more, but I will put even more into Cemex. It has been a bumpy ride down to its current P/E of 2.7 I have lost a lot of money along the way, but I believe in its future. Not by Election Day 2008 but maybe by 2010. At some point, financial meltdown or no, they’re going to have to start repairing roads and bridges again. Think of the Works Progress Administration launched by FDR in 1935 to put people to work, most of them building roads, bridges, and public buildings. All of which requires a lot of cement. We are probably not in for a reprise of the Great Depression, but building infrastructure is much better as an economic stimulus than sending everyone a check, as GWB has done. When that happens, Cemex shares will skyrocket.
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StockGumshoe Reply:
October 13th, 2008 at 10:42 am
… as long as they stop losing money on currency bets and derivatives that they originally thought might be “hedges” — similar problems with some Brazilian stocks, including Sadia (which I own).
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Elissa Stein Reply:
October 13th, 2008 at 11:01 am
sadia is a buy, here.
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Well, this retired old widow isn’t scared…..when I saw that a good dividend paying stock , Provident Energy, was headed down to $4.45 , I bought it! I may have been the only one buying yesterday, but I am happy with that.
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ETFC = E*Trade Financial, go ahead and laugh, but the shorts could get caught on a pop when things turn around. Lots of them already got out, but at 2 bucks, this is ripe. Besides, half of you use them as your broker I bet.
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Graham Jervis Reply:
October 11th, 2008 at 4:48 pm
i do
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Scott Johnson Reply:
October 11th, 2008 at 4:50 pm
I use Scottrade. I was looking at changing to someone who offers dividend reinvestment. But in talking to one of their brokers, they should be offering dividend reinvestment by the end of the year.
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Wayne Reply:
October 11th, 2008 at 10:43 pm
I like to pick where my dividend money goes. Most of the time I do not want it to just stay with the original source. Several of the CE funds buy your new shares for you at Market or NAV, whichever is higher. Going price can be well below NAV. I can also pick up dividend money from a ‘growth’ investment paying 3.0% and buy shares of an MLP paying 9.0%. (That happens from “diversification.”)
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MGI second only to Western Union and has been hit hard due to derivatives. Transfers to foreign countries had increased since their write-downs, until a hiccup this last month. Price is down better than 95% off its 52 week high. When the market turns, this should start going again. Looking at the trend in income, lost 1B plus in 4q 2007, lost 361M 1q2008, and made 15M 2q2008. I bought 1000 shares.
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Scott Johnson Reply:
October 11th, 2008 at 4:49 pm
What is the time frame to determine who had the best pick?
Also, I am waiting for funds to finish transfering from an old 401K so that I can buy GE. I have been looking at it for about the last two months. At these prices it is just too good to pass up. If GE were to spin-off its financial sector, it would double in no time. I would rather it hold onto the financial sector and reinvest my dividends at this low price for awhile and double when the financial markets are stronger, which may be awhile.
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TV Guy Reply:
October 11th, 2008 at 4:57 pm
Hey Scott…as posted above…the Gumshoe has set “American Election Day” as the deadline for the pick that “does the best between Monday morning and then”….and of course the deadline for all submissions is: before the markets open this Monday morning. I think I have this right?
Your vote would be : MGI…and the race is on.
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GLD – yes, it’s already been mentioned (darn, there goes my $50!!), but I think it is the ultimate hedge in this market. I’ve already lost $30K in my 401-K this month – YIKES!! – but at this point my time horizon has also gone out another 5 years… LOL. Gold is down now (I think) because plenty is being sold to deal with redemptions of funds (and/or because it has, relatively speaking, held it’s own), but just try and buy some from any local coin or bullion shop – they’re running out! That being said, I don’t think it will be the best performer by E-day, but I certainly feel safer holding it now than just about anything else…
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GUMMY, man maybe you should offer money more often. i’ve got a good idea- how about the government inject us with the 700 billion, that translates into 297,000 for each individual, that’ll jump start the economy. anyway #17 took mine (NCC), so i’ll present you with dejour enterprises DEJ- excellent O&G play. so if you don’t give me the $50 give it to John over at aisle #17. later gumman, thomas baines
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David Reply:
October 12th, 2008 at 11:14 am
>>how about the government inject us with the 700 billion, that translates into 297,000 for each individual,<<
Thomas, I think you’re about 2 decimal places off (high) in that calc (assuming 305M pop.)
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StockGumshoe Reply:
October 13th, 2008 at 10:46 am
Yep, I think it actually works out to about $2,300 — who knows, we may get there, they continue to talk about more stimulus programs, and we’ll probably see public works funding increased, too.
My oldest daughter is 4, I was going to ask her if I could borrow $5,000 directly instead of letting the government lend it out on her behalf … but she doesn’t have it yet (damn child labor laws!). I’ll have to let her take out one of those credit card offers she gets in the mail so she can help to fund my new big screen TV.
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ALL
Allstate has been painted with the same brush as AIG, but they have no mortgage exposure. I bought it on Thursday at clearance sale price.
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NAT
They will continue to transport oil, and they are required to return profits as dividends. (Currently 23.4%) Reinvesting those dividends compounds the fun….and your profit!
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Re contest. I believe Agrium (manufacturer of fertilizers world-wide will be the best stock to buy between now and US election. It is at a considerable discount at the moment and should rise soon.
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Going with Wells Fargo (WFC) the upside is great in 3-6 months if the Wachovia deal doesn’t yield more surprises than anticipated. They now have more of a presence in the south & northeast as well as a ton of programs & products to offer to existing Wachovia clients. If its good enough for Warren B. Then i am OK with it, plus my son works for WFC & with a lot of positive comments going forward. LUV da site gummy
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Currently watching GE and Apple. Ge is a great global company and the price has dropped beyond rediculous. Apple, company is gaining ground with computers, ipods, and iphones.
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Look at ADM. Selling $2 under tangible book. $2 billion in the bank. Everybody has to eat. Been around since 1902.
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JAV Javelin Pharmaceuticals …..The Chart looks good to me !
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For contest I would go with Decker Outdoors, “DECK”. I feel that this co. is not only strong, but is positioned well going into the end of the year. People will cut back on many things in this economy but all the teen girls will still get their Uggs for xmas. I own it and was fortunate to pick up more at 80 last week. (2nd pick is MHS also a steal at current price)
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GLW
Corning Glass has been around since dinosaurs roamed the earth. It pays a dividend and seems to be a calming presence in this sea of uncertainty. Ya, it’s gone down to bargain price, but I had a little cash and bought 35 shares of it on Friday. I saw the Asian markets were taking a dive on Thursday night, so put a buy order in for Friday morning. It’s more about averaging for me. I now own 300 shares at various prices–some high and some low. It may sound like a boring company–glass? No, they make fiber optics and all kinds of technologically necessary stuff. In any event, I’m keeping my fingers crossed in this wild wild wild market. I do think that with the election of a new president, things will change, just on the thought that things are a changin’. Thanks for reading.
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My bet is on PXX on Toronto Stock Exchange.
A solid little oil & gas company that has good revenue, but has lost 3/4 of its market value this year. Election day may be too quick for recovery but wild things are happening these days so who knows.
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APWR
This stock has been killed recently (what hasn’t), but the fundamentals are pretty strong. They are a small-cap Chinese stock whose business involves distributed power generation and wind turbines. The wind business is the interesting part and they have a lot of signed orders for business this year and next (they have a couple of different customers and one is focusing on the Inner Mongolia region, which I guess is one of the Saudi Arabias of wind in China).
Their CFO recently got let go, which helped to clobber the stock even more. The CFO left due to him working part-time at another company for a brief period of time when he first began his employ at APWR.
If this stock hits its projected sales, backed up by the order backlog, it is selling for a ridiculously cheap PE for the growth you can attain in an alternative energy field in the world’s most populous country hungry for energy. Put it all together and I think you may have a very nice reward for the risk you take.
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Sam Reply:
October 12th, 2008 at 6:51 pm
Thank you!!
I’ve held APWR since March and it has driven me nuts. Glad to see there are others that have not given up on it.
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StockGumshoe Reply:
October 13th, 2008 at 10:48 am
You’re off to a good start this morning with this one!
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David Reply:
October 13th, 2008 at 11:49 am
Wow…..gonna be hard to beat!
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I think the stock to buy is FEED. We all need to eat and this Chinese company has a very interesting niche. One of the few stocks I saw go up in value one day last week. It’s a long shot, but I wanted to be in the contest!
Calamity Jane
Phoenix, AZ
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What other good old stock but Fannie Mae ( fnm )
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I see Grimme has Fannie Mae…I will go for Freddie Mac as my pick
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I don’t have time to read every posting, but read enough to see that people are stillbanging their heads against the wall, hoping their stock will go UP! Eventually they will, but
since we’re in a recession and teetering on the brink of a depression,
I’ll stay with what has been making me money all year–the double inverse ETF’s.
DXD, QID, SMN, SRS, FXP, and especially
SKF.
If you can’t be at your computer most of the trading day, these are risky on days when we have these brief but violent reversals, but the trend is down
and will stay down until there is solid evidence of a recovery. Continued desperation bandaids applied by Washington aren’t inspiring much confidence, are they?
Oh,I have to narrow it to one for the contest? Okay. SKF
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Gumshoe, please clarify in your rules whether “stock that does best” means percentage gain or dollar gain.
If you mean percentage gain, my vote is for BBND. Big Band Networks is way underpriced in my opinion, and has a tech solution in the cable market that is being embraced both domestically and overseas. I believe that AT&T is looking at them as well. So put me down for BBND. And yes, I own the stock.
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StockGumshoe Reply:
October 12th, 2008 at 7:09 pm
Percentage gain.
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Big Mo Reply:
October 12th, 2008 at 8:07 pm
As far as a compelling reason to buy BBND, they have a proprietary compression algorithm that works, and works well. Some of the other “big boys” in the industry can’t say the same, at least not nearly on the same par that Big Band Networks boasts. So the choice for the AT&T’s, Comcast’s, etc. of the world is to either A: Outlay one heck of a lot of money to put in new infrastructure to increase bandwidth, or B: put in a Big Band solution to increase compression on existing bandwidth. Providers that don’t increase speed in one fashion or another lose customers (including the gamers who demand near zero latency.) Lost customers equates to lost monthly revenues. I think as Big Band gets more and more contracts the demand for their technology will snowball, especially if AT&T gets on board as rumored. This should easily be a $8-$12 stock in my humble opinion.
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I agree with Don. On the Canadian side I would suggest HMD-TSX, HED-TSX, HQD-TSX, HJD-TSX and my suggestion for Gumshoe is: HED-TSX
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PCU-Southern Copper Corporation is a highly integrated copper producer.
Worlds largest publicly traded copper mining company based on reserves and also a large producer of molybdenum, silver,zinc and sulfuric acid is produced as a by-product. Low cost operations whose growth can be financed with internally generated funds. Stock is down about 75% from 2008 high and currently pays a 20% dividend although this will not hold up but a 10% dividend will in the long term term. When housing starts increase in late 2009 and industrial use in 2010, you can easily see a 100% plus gain in 2 years with a great dividend.
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Big Mo Reply:
October 12th, 2008 at 8:12 pm
Perhaps, Dave, but the price of copper has tanked lately. Regardless of how big they are, I wouldn’t be one to invest in this one at today’s copper prices. Yes, increased demand may drive up the price, but now you have two things to hope for instead of one. Food for thought…
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IVAN
Ivanhoe Energy They have a Heavy to light technology. Just signed a deal with Equador with a conference call on Tuesday. As a penny stock it, had a huge pop when they annouced the Canadian deal and should have a bigger pop Wednesday. Downside is they have to raise the cash for both of these deals.
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GOLD WHEATON GLW.VENTURE EXCHANGE Set-up by some the best in the business,the same people who set-up SILVER WHEATON.Despite the slaughter of gold miners recently,GLW is a no-lose proposition
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VE
According to Maslow’s ‘Hierarchy of Need,’ the first absolute human need is: 1. Air; well, they’re not selling air yet, so that brings us to: 2. Water. Veolia Environnement SA is the largest (only?) pure water play on the market, and its way, way down, because of investor panic; go long.
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Sterling Construction Co. Inc (STRL) I’m betting it will be increasingly obvious that Obama is going to win. Traditionally, Democrats have been more willing to spend on infra-structure (bridges & highways) and such spending is a fast way to reduce unemployment.
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WMT
Although I believe that by the election, the stock market will be about 2,000 points lower than it is right now. I believe that Wal Mart stock will be about the same as it is right now or maybe 5 points lower. Several years ago I bought FDX (FedEx) stock at $80 and I sold half of it at $105 and the other half at $110 so I did really well. FDX went to $115 I think and now it’s down to $65. When it hits bottom, it would be a great stock to buy back. But Wal Mart is really a stable stock. Right now, I have NO money in the stock market and I will NOT invest in anything until the economy picks up.
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I like BP Prudo Bay (BPT), Kinder Morgan (KMP) AND BMI. I have liked both companies for a while and didn’t want to buy them becuase I thought they had already ran too much but with the selloff this is when I believe its a perfect opportunity. I was a little upset that Cramer mentioned KMP on his show because it caused it to run up some and then stayed flat when everything was crashing. Not the desired result I wanted for thes MLPs.
BMI – my county changed my kids mother’s water meter because they thought she should have been paying more. I imagine they are going to try and squeeze every penny out of citizens now and this is one way.
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Capstone CS.TO They are combining (it doesn’t say merging) with Sherwood, both are debt free, down about 75% from recent highs, have positive cash flow, copper and silver mines in safe North American location and Silver is set to pop.
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US Geothermal HTM on American Stock Exchange. Alternate Energy Company out of Idaho already producing electricity with plans to expand to other areas. Has dropped a few points the last few months and has now recovered to over $1.
Little or no debt and good management. I good candidate for price recovery as earnings are starting to come in.
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Thpw(otcbb)- Thorium Power, developer of thorium based nuclear fuel designs: Intro of Thorium Energy Independence Security Act in US Senate; Signing of India/US nuclear agreement: Agreements with Russia’s Kurchatov Institute and UAE; Speaking engagements by CEO, Chairman and advisory board member in India, Middle East, Washington,DC and UN Plaza; Qualification and expertise of mgmt; Annual meeting-10/24/08. Recent Insider Buying. Small Cap OTCBB risk!
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Dan Reply:
October 12th, 2008 at 11:20 am
Hells yeah, Larry! I own about 20,000 shares of this stock, and I have great faith in thorium as a future fuel. In the near term, as uranium runs low and fusion isn’t yet up and running, thorium will provide the electricity for which our civilization has an insatiable thirst.
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Thank you Travis for holding this contest. It shows that people still have hope, which is encouraging. And it also gives us many fresh ideas to reaserach/invest in.
My pick is DGP. For all you gold lovers, this is the one. This ETF goes up and down at DOUBLE the rate of the price of gold.
My apologies to whoever took GLD for the contest as you have been mathematically eliminated. IF GLD goes up 10% DGP will be up 20.
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Hello Gumshoe, Since someone already took WMT, I’ll have to change my pick to (A PUT on Diamonds Trust) which is betting that the entire stock market, the DOW will go DOWN. Just look at all the people who are desperate for your $50. (laughing)
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Since this is meaningless and have not seen a home builder lets go with HOV. Shorts will cover one day.
DK as an option
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CROX I don’t care what anyone says about them. They are the most comfortable footware I’ve ever worn in my 62+ years on this planet.
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Wow, What to choose. Solar and alternative power will get big surge through election.Sector down 50to90% With the bailout to include solar incentives how can a common man go wrong.YGE,STP,SPWR,ESLR.So many choices just not enough investment capital.Will consider options for leverage but anyone know any ___good warrants?Really good warrants? Up or down lets make a million together.But my pick and very surprised no one else considered it would be that ever popular. >>>>> .GOOG.
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Better than money in the bank (depending on your bank I guess almost anything is) is gold.
One thing for certain it won’t bankrupt and there are no “creative” accountants or schemes to worry about (see AIG, Enron,etc.).
With this in mind don’t just go gold, double down on it with DGP – Double Gold Long. When gold goes up 40% by year’s end you will realize an 80% gain.
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I like Methanex MEOH. Its off more than 50% form its high close to that much this year. They make methanol, the issue currently yields 4.2%, and the main inputs (energy) have plummeted causing some competitors to preannounce to the upside. The spice in this otherwise boring pick is fact that for about 50 dollars you convert a flex fuel car to burn methanol and gasoline would have to sell at at about 2.25 to compete . There is a group lobbying congress to mandate the 50 dollar change for all new flex fuel cars. We can create methanol without burning our food. It can be made from any biomass waste or coal or nat gas.
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AFFY, just look at the 5 day chart. Huge upside potential with this gem.
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farley 5 Reply:
October 12th, 2008 at 8:57 am
At 7 MPG, the Brutis must fly off of the shelf!
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BRK.B –Berkshire B shares at a 33% discount to fair value (morningstar)
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PPC Why did the chicken cross the road????
“TO buy up some Pligrams Pride”
THis stock is so low with the volume of chickens they produce you cant help but cluck up some shares! You would be foul not to!!!
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Well, if I had to pick just one, it might be BAC, which I have bought a lot of, both in July and last week (around 19-21). They have been beaten way down by fear (”blood in the streets”) but they are one of the strongest banks and when the fear settles out, may have a strong pop followed by a good future. Hindsight will tell… I also got some AIB and STD (the bank, not the disease) since they should recover some when the fear passes.
To set the stage for the rest, I’m about 5 years from retirement at a young age, so while I’ll want more income, I’m not averse to risk either. I’m picking up more ETFs than I have in the past because I don’t know for sure which companies might have toxic problems so among the ETFs I have been buying this past week are PFF, PID, and IHF next week. I’m seriously looking at XOP, PBW, EWZ, and RSX but haven’t made any decision yet since they may run down some more. Except for adding to ones I have, I’m avoiding individual stocks for the most part.
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I will place my entry with AUY
It is selling at a negative production cost. It is a producer with a lot of ounces. If gold stocks take off at all, it will be the producers who will get the first infusion of investment money. But, gold has been successfully held down, but how long can the manipulation trump the fundamentals of excessive money supply?
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I’m betting on Ford F. No one knows what’s going to heal this mess and panic, but I know Alan Mullaly, the Ford CEO…I went to MIT Sloan School with him. So, if I have no confidence in the pundits, I’ll stick with a leader I know, and who has a company that the US would have trouble letting go belly up, AND that’s doing very well in China, by the way.
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DRYS (Dryships) is my pick. Not too many months ago, it was around $131. It closed Friday at $17.84. This is one that can go up very quickly in a short period of time. China and other countries are going to start needing our raw materials, etc. again when things stabilize. I’ve been toying with the idea of buying some soon.
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RYN up 10% Fri, & PCL up 12%
Both available as DRIPs. both pay dividends that
can be automatically reinvested. World will always need lumber. Many institutions of higher learning are invested heavily building their endowments.
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SVA – Probably will not win me any contests, but I have been buying and will continue to buy until the low of my value range is hit.
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What is the best stock to buy right now? Who really knows? Who can claim he can invest like a Buffet or a Pro? I know.. a lot of questions! The market is entering (read “is”) in a recession mode thus down it will go until it reach real bottom. Buying like a Buffet is finding value that over the long run will be profitable… I have to admit, I don’t really like buying and closing my eyes hoping for a great long run! So why should I buy a stock on the basis that it is down.. and still going down? I prefer to wait for it’s real bottom, the market knows better where it will be.
I don’t have the best bargain to offer, but on last friday I bought shares of Weston (WN on Toronto). Why? Because it’s a great business easy to understand; everyone has to eat! It has been a long time since I wanted to buy this stock into my portfolio, but the price was declining mostly on Loblwas’s problem (WN own 60% of L.. the biggest food chain in Canada). Now the wind seems to be changing, the price has stop dropping and WN is perceived has recession proof.
Now I could speculate (I probably will) and give you a stock from witch I think could rally fast, but I would’nt be a holder of it for too long in these market’s condition!
I agree on many good names mentionned above, but I don’t think it is time to pick them up just yet! A rally of at least a 1000 pts on the Dow is very likely, but the credit crisis is far from over.
Anyone for a piece of bread?
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The choices of strategy between now and election day include the typical value method of looking at the most beaten down sectors and finding the healthiest in those groups. This would probably include an unfairly beaten down financial or energy stock. Another strategy, which I call the healthy-survivor method, is to look at the stocks that have actually held up the best during the downturn. These tend to be among the usual bear market survivors – consumer staples or healthcare. The third is to find stocks that will have the biggest upside surprises, with good earnings reports. These could come from any sector. The fourth is to assume the worst and just go with gold.
The healthy survivor stocks are unlikely to gain that much – they’ll just hold steady or not fall as far. WalMart is a good choice using that method, as would BJ’s Wholesale (BJ) or my beloved Church & Dwight (CHD). But as Farley says, these kinds of stocks probably won’t win a contest. So the best candidates for bigger gains would probably come from a beaten down sector or from stocks with an earnings surprise.
One of my favorite things to do is find stocks that benefit from misfortune, and we’ve had plenty of that lately. My choice is Quanta Services (PWR), which is in the crucial sector of infrastructure, and of particular interest for me, in building and repairing power lines. Quanta had a great report in August for their second quarter, and their third quarter is always stronger, particularly after a bad hurricane season, when there are lots of power and cable lines to be repaired. Since Quanta operates in Texas and Louisiana, where there were a LOT of power lines to be repaired, PWR should benefit. Folks have to have their power and their cable TV. The stock is incredibly cheap right now, and analyst target prices range from $30 to $45. If history is any guide, PWR will gain. I originally bought it at $9 a couple of months before Katrina, when I anticipated that it would benefit from what forecasters were saying would be a bad hurricane season, and watched it more than triple. I think it’s time to buy it again.
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CAT it’s so global
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THIS ONE COULD MAKE YOU A MILLIONAIRE>>>> HI RISK. QMNM….Quest Mining…..1 billion tons of coal in the ground…..1 mine producing…mine # 2 and 3 preparing to produce…..The CEO call it the “next Massey”……Priced at an UNBELIEVABLE .002 cents. Why? They are going thru a Bankruptcy….A November hearing should have this taken care of and then LOOK OUT….This baby could fly!
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take a look at the canadian oil trusts, >20% dividends due to the fall of their prices.
brookdale senior living … 30% drop!
NewCastle at $5 witha 20% div
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VE or C
VE because we need water and VE is one of the BIGGEST infrastructure players in the world.
Plus they pay a 3.12(10.20%) div.yield
Citibank they’ve been beaten down a bunch,
more than most of the other financials,
expect a near term run up for C.
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In reviewing the selections above, I would like to recommend buying energy stocks, mining companies, oil trusts and agriculture among other plays — but I am not sure the dividends paid or the earnings previously reported can be sustained.
I believe that any investment made now should be hedged if possible. I would suggest watching CME and ICE as the market makers and government create new markets to trade CDO’s and other commercial paper (including mortgages? and insurance? and derivatives?). I would carefully select a basket of short positions to hedge these investments, (like SH or SDS or SKF). Timing and keeping tight stop losses would be critical in any of these speculative bets. Meanwhile, the NYX, NDAQ and other exchanges may not fair quite as well, but could be tracked for potential invesments when trading activity to the upside increases. For now, they are very risky.
Beyond that, I would agree with Woman with Portfolio – we all need a strategy to get through the election cycle, because that is the wild card affecting all of the markets. The negativity created by the party behind in the polls is compounding the sour mood of the financial markets. Therefore, even buying Walmart, Church and Dwight or Proctor and Gamble in here could be hazardous to your financial health. If you must buy, please use very low limit orders (check the low price swings on Thursday and Friday for your bid price. You will be surprised. For example, Berkshire Hathaway opened @ $3000 for the B shares, well below the closing prices).
Be prepared for more volatility to come. That is the nature of this market – probably until the end of the year and beyond. Don’t bet with money you do not already have, and keep your bets small.
Good luck!
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SILVER, dollars, bags of silver coins, us or canadian,bars, or a junior mining co. if i can qualify one.
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FTEK gets my vote. While coal-fired power plants may be a necessary evil for the immediate future, cleaning up the emissions is clearly a necessary virtue.
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GLD
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Canadian Oil Sands Trust, has a sparkling yield, huge reserves and like several of its kin, has nowhere to go but up. The price of oil has held up well, all things considered. I expect Oil to stabilze around the $90-$95. Yield and safety with an upside, you couldn’t ask for more.
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CDY, Cardero Resources. Please see new situation report on Thurs, or Fri. Prove out on Pampa De Pongo Iron deposit. Rio Tinto has been on the property for a month or so. Another piece of news do out in the next month. Could see $4-6.00/share by year end. Thanks shoe, nice to read you. I have another biggie, BUT you set the rules.
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I have been doing the GUMSHORE routine for 4 years and my accounts are littered with losers. But I leave them in my accounts as a reminder of not being too stupid and I actually had a great time trying to figurte the answers but not necessarily at that expense. How about NEOM from Tobin Smith. To this day I still can’t figure out why they can’t make that technology work.
One spam candidate I got long ago was MVIS,Microvision which is just ramping up production of their always in focus,miniture image projector which can originate froma computer,phone,maybe an ipod. I own a bunch at $5. You can get in at < $2. They also have an auto windshield info projector for speed ,etc.
In affect , my take away from all these spam ideas in that they are painfully early. Best,Roblites
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My solution to the mess is to make usury against the law. If used car dealers, mortgage lenders, credit cards, and any other lender could only lend money at a max of say 5 points above prime, likely none of this would have happened. If you get an interest only loan, you pay too much and if you lose your job, you are out of luck. Banks and other lenders would be careful who they lend to.
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I agree with so many of the above posts, and have a few new names to research. My pick is MET @30.25 with a sl at 25.25 and write the Nov 30 call for $5 if you can get it on the open. If it drops further you can continue to write calls. MET has a huge cash flow from all the life insurance monthly premiums to fund their business. The investments that they own are held for the long term so they are not forced to sell into this market. Their business is expanding in all the emerging and growing overseas markets. Also it is very likely that MET is too big to fail if it came to that point. Buffet purchased GEICO during a similar crash back in the 70’s. I’ve been an investor since 1972 and my overall belief is that most people not those who visit this site of course believe that this market will be like those over the last 20 years. I disagree. The p/es are overstated and the earnings revisions are just starting. As unemployment climbs many people will tap their 401Ks and IRAs to make ends meet. It is wishful that the market will recover quickly. Just like those who refuse to sell their homes at market prices now. That’s not to say we won’t have rallies where you can make profitable trades. I’ve lost the most money going against the wisdom of people like Stan Weinstein. The trend is your friend and don’t fight the tape. I will be convinced when I see a positive change in a/d and a quarter or two of positive earnings surprises. Until then I’m content to stay 80% in cash with FDIC insurance. Sorry for the long post but I have been a loyal reader for a couple of years and this is my first post.
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I’ll go with CHK. Natural gas is a relatively plentiful domestic energy source and is being unleashed and developed in fields all over the country – from barnett to marcellus, to fayetville and haynesville – and not to mention the bakken. It is relatively clean burning, in wide use by utilities, business, and homes, and is being heavily promoted through the pickens plan as a “bridge” to hydrogen fuels. CHK has fallen some 80% from their highs of 90 days ago and the winter (and likely higher nat gas prices) is only now arriving. They *could* be an easy double or even triple from here if things do nothing but just normalize.
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ETFC based on the good possibility that they will be bought out by GE. GE needs to get qualified for GOV’T subsidization by owning a bank.
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well i bought a lot of drybulkers and i’m out of money actually but there are some very good deals in the space
if i must to chose only one i say nm
too cheap today
but there are some others like drys or exm excellent companies
and some hig dividend payers like gnk ocnf prgn free sblk
i’m loosing 40% to 70%
in this stuff and i’m still confident
i’m very sad because i could not buy more
money is all in
good luck to everybody
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PEP…All this makes me nervous and I eat and drink when I am nervous.
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JGunnlaugson Reply:
October 13th, 2008 at 10:45 pm
Bob
Me too
so is Jolt Cola still listed??
There WERE better times.
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Got late into the contest and many of my favorites got picked. I’d say APL (was named in Gumshoe after some teaser pumped up natural gas co in PA). Another idea is to buy equities with good monthly dividends, like RCR. This is like after-Xmas crearance sale.
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Bank of America for the 3 week pop. Seems to me that since the financials have been at the core of the problem, they have the potential for most movement (obviously so far down). Longer term I like Trinity (TRN), which seems to me to be in a lot of great spaces, rail cars, wind towers, infrastructure.
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Petrol One, PTLNF.PK – Highly speculative, Canadian oil explorer – oil and gas concessions in Gabon, Africa. Well capitalized. Memorandum of agreement complete on refinery to be built in Niger – press release should be out soon.
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I have Diana Shipping (DSX). This is the only stock I have that I haven’t bee trading. I bought it at $30 and then some more at $13. It closed Friday at $14. This is a strange one as the yield is better than 25% at these prices. Someone figure this out-
Q3 2007 EPS $.45/share
Q3 dividend $.58/share
Q4 2007 EPS $.49/share
Q4 divident $.60/share
Q1 2008 EPS $.70/share
Q1 dividend $.85/share
Q2 2008 EPS $.76/share
Q2 dividend $.91/share
Q3 and Q4 estimates are $.75 and $.73
Like I said I can’t figure this one out but it’s paying even better than 10% ant my original purchase price.
Also PE 5.1 and PEG 0.3
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Some interesting stuff, folks — and an overwhelming response, which is great to see. Some stocks I own or have looked at in that list, too.
Keep ‘em coming for the next 12 hours or so — will pick the best idea based on my opinion on Monday sometime for the first winner, and will use Friday’s close to track all of the picks to see who is the second winner on Election Day.
I hope we’re all winners … but now I’m getting a little greedy, I’d like some of my favorites to get just a leeeetle bit cheaper. Of course, if you listen to CNBC that might mean the world is about to come to an end.
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UVSS-should double each week til contest end. Some risk because of alerts. World needs more lerts ; )
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Alright I am about as amatuerish as they come but I like NYMT, they got out of selling mortgages and just buy quality paper(if there is such a thing right Now). I also like Maverick oil, a very small oil play in the states. I also like RBK (ADR’s) and Ford , they are dirt cheap and I do feel they will make it out of this mess.
Love your email
mark
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umm that was RBS not RBK, did I mention amatuerish
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IBM.
IBM stock always goes back up to the 120 range…..eventually.
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You cannot buy too much of this.
Metanor: MTO in Canada Meaof in usa. @ $.46
They are produvcing gold and it is priced at a junior explorer level.
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Since we’re only talking three weeks, my bet would be that RIG will have a nice bounce. They’ve been the red-headed step child of the energy family recently, and it’s just about time for the investing world to see it as a Rita Hayworth instead of a Carrot Top.
For longer frames, the Irish banks will be solid – in three years we will wish we bought IRE and AIB now
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HOKU big contracts already prepaid, next year wild be awesome ,another stock to consider CBAK Good Luck!!!
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ARA
Aracruz (ADR’s). I calculate the value of these ADR’s at somewhere north of $60. But here it sits, trading around $12-13, with a safe dividend of $3.31 paying us well over 25% to wait for a recovery. Once-in-a-lifetime stuff.
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My idea is to buy Penn West Energy Trust (PWE) for the dividend. The yield went up a lot this week. I bought shares at just over 17 this week and it closed at 14.33. But, I think it will come back and it pays out every month. If I had a lot of money, I’d buy more.
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BA
Boeing
Perhaps the workers will settle the strike due to the economic crisis. Will they do it before the US election? They should.
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I would not purchase any stocks at this time. moving in and out of equities daily (long and short) untill the market is responding positive. If I had to leave money in the market it would probably be in a food stock,(GIS) I can see this stock breaking new highs within the next three weeks considering the state of the global economy.
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I am thinking about
ZN
Oil and gas in Israel
Dallas based Zion Oil and Gas Inc. is offering an opportunity to purchase Units at $10.00 per Unit. Each Unit consists of: One Share of Zion stock and One Warrant.After they close the public offering the share of stock will trade on the AMEX under the ticker symbol ZN, identical to Zion’s currently traded common stock.
What makes the current offering special is that the Warrant received with the Unit purchase allows the purchase of one additional share of common stock for $7.00 at any time between the final closing of this offering and January 31, 2012. The warrant price stays at $7.00 until January 31, 2012, regardless of the price of Zion stock on the open market during that time.
A $10.00 Unit buys one Share of Zion stock plus the Warrant; giving the right to buy an additional Share of Zion stock at a fixed price of $7.00 at any time between the final closing of this offering and January 31, 2012. The Warrant only gives the right to buy an additional share at $7.00; investors are never under any obligation to purchase that additional share.
The minimum subscription for each person is 100 Units or $1,000 (100 x $10 = $1,000). After the Company has sold a minimum of 325,000 Units, the Units will trade on the American Stock Exchange (AMEX) under the symbol ZN.U. After the termination of this offering, the Units will dissolve and both ZN Stock and ZN Warrants will trade on AMEX. The symbol for the ZN Warrants will be ZN.W.
Investment dollars in the current public offering go directly to Zion to fund future exploration and the planned multi-well drilling project.
If Zion succeeds in its mission of discovering oil and gas in Israel, the potential financial opportunity of participating in this offering will be a handsome profit.
This could also be another source of oil.
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VIX Index Options – symbol (^VIX on Yahoo Finance)
Specifically Put options, because the swings have been so parabolic, the only SURE thing is that Volatility will die down (Therefore, I hope!, the Puts would increase exponentially in value). You could be more conservative & buy a Straddle of Calls & Puts in the further out months & wait for the combined value of both ( Calls & Puts ) to eventually surpass the Cost of both.
If you can buy as far out as possible, you can sell “Covered Calls & Puts” around your orignal position of Calls/Puts that you bought.
I like the idea of selling into Hysteria & buying during boredom.
Good luck all & thanks for your great ideas!
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OMAG.OB
Billion $+ Property Development agreement to be signed anytime now.
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DEO – Diageo Brands. Their price is low right now but with the phenomenal market share they have with their top brands they are still making a ton of dough. With these troubling times there’s a lot of people drowning their sorrows, I just hope they still buy the premium diageo brands.
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CNXT
Raised earnings guidance 9/30, stock went up, then down with market. Could go up again with solid financials.
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My choice is Jin on the TSX It should see a big bounce
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First Cash Financial Services (FCFS)……pawnshops, baby!
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spreadtrader Reply:
October 13th, 2008 at 9:33 am
Oh, this is the “longer term call”. This will do best over the next two years. You may as well throw darts to pick what will do best between now and the election.
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TBSI – Yes the BDI is down and so is TBSI, but their price to book is .5, their P/E is 1.6 and they just had record profits last quarter (twice the previous years!) and because they have a different business model from other dry bulk shippers their value isn’t as dependent on the BDI (they had a silly run up to $70 at one point – I’d say fair value is $25-$30). The only thing I don’t like is no dividend (like say PRGN or EGLE – which have, at current prices 30+% dividends) but they reinvest the money they make right back into the business. Well, run profitable company with ludicrous ratios…
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AAPL would be one of my choices but someone already picked that one…. so i will pick GOOG.
I am also all for the fair Tax idea.
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Nobody likes Panl-Universal Display–but me?
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POTASH CORP SASKATCH INC ( TSE: POT )
JUST BECAUSE !!!
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JGunnlaugson Reply:
October 13th, 2008 at 10:43 pm
Rick
I hates yer stock
but I Love your style
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hi, i love your site, best thing on the screen,
….
my pick is ENER, energy conversion devices;
why does nobody ever talk about them, or did I miss it?
greetings from italy
martin
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My choice is ProShares UltraShort Russell2000(TWM).
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CEF Central Fund of Canada. They buy gold and silver bullion and sit on it. If you think gold and silver are going to appreciate during times of inflation, you might check it out.
http://www.centralfund.com
Disclosure: I have approximately half of my IRA in this fund.
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