Stock Gumshoe Contest — Win $100 For Your Idea

By Travis Johnson, Stock Gumshoe, October 11, 2008

Welcome to the weekend after the worst week I can ever remember seeing in the stock market. I can’t do much to make you feel better about that, but I can give you a chance at $50 or $100 if you’ve got time to share an idea with the rest of us.

Famous investors of yore have shared lots of thought about what to do in these times, and most of them revolve around buying when everyone else is selling. Rothschild suggested that we buy when there’s blood in the streets, Buffett tells us to be greedy when others are fearful.

Well, today I wouldn’t be surprised to see at least a pinkish tinge to the sidewalks … and judging from my correspondence, people are as fearful now as they were after September 11, 2001 (for different reasons, of course). Who knows if it’s the bottom, but there certainly aren’t many enthusiastic buyers.

This market crash could hardly have come at a worse time — millions of Baby Boomers are hoping to retire over the next 10 years, and for those who were trying to goose their returns with a bit too much stock exposure those dreams of life on the road in a Winnebago may be pushed back a bit.

But if you’re like me, you can’t help but feel that in all this pain there may lie a bit of opportunity. And we know that in the short term, the market makes lots of mistakes as it rides emotional waves of fear and greed … so where does the opportunity lie?

Heck, maybe all our fear is misplaced and the fact that the Dow turned around late on Friday to move up 1,000 points or so (from intraday lows to intraday highs, at least) means we’re all fine, the last seller has left the building, and we’ll all be rich. No?

Now’s your chance to be the next Rockefeller or Buffett, though your rewards will be quite a bit more limited than theirs. I’m asking you to suggest a stock or other investment that you are tempted to buy right now, whether or not you can bring yourself to actually do so.

And I’ll award $50 each to two submissions — one whose idea sounds most interesting to me or is best presented, and the other to the person who suggests the stock that does best between now and election day. That’s only three weeks, so it’s a crazy time frame, but if I wait much longer I’ll forget to keep track. You can still come back and take some bragging rights if you make a good longer-term call.

And yes, the same person can win both if that’s how it works out. So you might just win a hundred bucks if you’ve got the magic October touch.

One catch: I’ll only reward the money if at least 20 people submit ideas.

The rules:

  1. You can submit only one idea, unless you fool me by using two different email addresses or accounts. Enter your idea in the comment form below.
  2. Submission deadline is Monday morning, before the stock market opens in NY. If you believe you’ll get great insight from the Asian markets on Sunday night, or the premarket Monday morning, feel free to wait until the last minute — 9:30 EST is the deadline Monday morning.
  3. If two of you have the same idea, the first one submitted gets credit.
  4. The Stock Gumshoe short ban is in effect — these have to be long positions in either exchange-traded debt or equity. You can choose an ETF or closed end fund if you like, but not a short or ultrashort ETF, or a short position in anything. And no, there’s no ticker for “coffee can in the backyard,” though I suppose you could pick the GLD ETF if you like.
  5. You can submit just a stock ticker if you want, but if you’d like to explain yourself please keep it fairly brief — no more than a couple paragraphs. You’ll have to explain yourself for a chance at the first $50.

I know that many of you wouldn’t part with your money right now no matter what, even if it was Mother Theresa at the door trying to sell you a bar of gold for a dollar, but I know most of you have at least a little temptation — who thought that GE would be in the teens? Or that Microsoft would trade at a single digit PE and have a dividend yield that’s actually worth looking at? And who knows, is something going to happen this weekend that changes everything?

So … what’s your stock market temptation?

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231 Comments on "Stock Gumshoe Contest — Win $100 For Your Idea"

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Scott B
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October 12, 2008 4:07 pm
I’ll go with CHK. Natural gas is a relatively plentiful domestic energy source and is being unleashed and developed in fields all over the country – from barnett to marcellus, to fayetville and haynesville – and not to mention the bakken. It is relatively clean burning, in wide use by utilities, business, and homes, and is being heavily promoted through the pickens plan as a “bridge” to hydrogen fuels. CHK has fallen some 80% from their highs of 90 days ago and the winter (and likely higher nat gas prices) is only now arriving. They *could* be an easy double… Read more »
Dan
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Dan
October 12, 2008 4:18 pm

ETFC based on the good possibility that they will be bought out by GE. GE needs to get qualified for GOV’T subsidization by owning a bank.

stefano
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stefano
October 12, 2008 4:39 pm

well i bought a lot of drybulkers and i’m out of money actually but there are some very good deals in the space
if i must to chose only one i say nm
too cheap today
but there are some others like drys or exm excellent companies
and some hig dividend payers like gnk ocnf prgn free sblk
i’m loosing 40% to 70%
in this stuff and i’m still confident
i’m very sad because i could not buy more
money is all in
good luck to everybody

Bob White
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Bob White
October 12, 2008 4:39 pm

PEP…All this makes me nervous and I eat and drink when I am nervous.

New Trader
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New Trader
October 12, 2008 4:47 pm

Got late into the contest and many of my favorites got picked. I’d say APL (was named in Gumshoe after some teaser pumped up natural gas co in PA). Another idea is to buy equities with good monthly dividends, like RCR. This is like after-Xmas crearance sale.

rumpole
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rumpole
October 12, 2008 5:43 pm

Bank of America for the 3 week pop. Seems to me that since the financials have been at the core of the problem, they have the potential for most movement (obviously so far down). Longer term I like Trinity (TRN), which seems to me to be in a lot of great spaces, rail cars, wind towers, infrastructure.

Jan Upton
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Jan Upton
October 12, 2008 5:49 pm

Petrol One, PTLNF.PK – Highly speculative, Canadian oil explorer – oil and gas concessions in Gabon, Africa. Well capitalized. Memorandum of agreement complete on refinery to be built in Niger – press release should be out soon.

Wayne
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Wayne
October 12, 2008 6:07 pm
I have Diana Shipping (DSX). This is the only stock I have that I haven’t bee trading. I bought it at $30 and then some more at $13. It closed Friday at $14. This is a strange one as the yield is better than 25% at these prices. Someone figure this out- Q3 2007 EPS $.45/share Q3 dividend $.58/share Q4 2007 EPS $.49/share Q4 divident $.60/share Q1 2008 EPS $.70/share Q1 dividend $.85/share Q2 2008 EPS $.76/share Q2 dividend $.91/share Q3 and Q4 estimates are $.75 and $.73 Like I said I can’t figure this one out but it’s paying… Read more »
Gravity Switch
Admin
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October 12, 2008 7:17 pm
Some interesting stuff, folks — and an overwhelming response, which is great to see. Some stocks I own or have looked at in that list, too. Keep ’em coming for the next 12 hours or so — will pick the best idea based on my opinion on Monday sometime for the first winner, and will use Friday’s close to track all of the picks to see who is the second winner on Election Day. I hope we’re all winners … but now I’m getting a little greedy, I’d like some of my favorites to get just a leeeetle bit cheaper.… Read more »
jerry1ne
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jerry1ne
October 12, 2008 7:24 pm

UVSS-should double each week til contest end. Some risk because of alerts. World needs more lerts ; )

Mark
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Mark
October 12, 2008 7:46 pm

Alright I am about as amatuerish as they come but I like NYMT, they got out of selling mortgages and just buy quality paper(if there is such a thing right Now). I also like Maverick oil, a very small oil play in the states. I also like RBK (ADR’s) and Ford , they are dirt cheap and I do feel they will make it out of this mess.
Love your email
mark

Mark
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Mark
October 12, 2008 7:47 pm

umm that was RBS not RBK, did I mention amatuerish

Sloaf
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Sloaf
October 12, 2008 8:34 pm

IBM.

IBM stock always goes back up to the 120 range…..eventually.

Al Cafiero
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Al Cafiero
October 12, 2008 8:39 pm

You cannot buy too much of this.

Metanor: MTO in Canada Meaof in usa. @ $.46

They are produvcing gold and it is priced at a junior explorer level.

jim t.
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jim t.
October 12, 2008 9:04 pm

Since we’re only talking three weeks, my bet would be that RIG will have a nice bounce. They’ve been the red-headed step child of the energy family recently, and it’s just about time for the investing world to see it as a Rita Hayworth instead of a Carrot Top.
For longer frames, the Irish banks will be solid – in three years we will wish we bought IRE and AIB now

coal burnerzzzz
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October 12, 2008 9:25 pm

HOKU big contracts already prepaid, next year wild be awesome ,another stock to consider CBAK Good Luck!!!

Rob L.
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Rob L.
October 12, 2008 10:15 pm

ARA

Aracruz (ADR’s). I calculate the value of these ADR’s at somewhere north of $60. But here it sits, trading around $12-13, with a safe dividend of $3.31 paying us well over 25% to wait for a recovery. Once-in-a-lifetime stuff.

Wynne
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Wynne
October 12, 2008 10:50 pm

My idea is to buy Penn West Energy Trust (PWE) for the dividend. The yield went up a lot this week. I bought shares at just over 17 this week and it closed at 14.33. But, I think it will come back and it pays out every month. If I had a lot of money, I’d buy more.

JGunnlaugson
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JGunnlaugson
October 12, 2008 10:59 pm

BA
Boeing
Perhaps the workers will settle the strike due to the economic crisis. Will they do it before the US election? They should.

BBuzit
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BBuzit
October 13, 2008 12:50 am

I would not purchase any stocks at this time. moving in and out of equities daily (long and short) untill the market is responding positive. If I had to leave money in the market it would probably be in a food stock,(GIS) I can see this stock breaking new highs within the next three weeks considering the state of the global economy.

Wei Ding
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Wei Ding
October 13, 2008 2:50 am
I am thinking about ZN Oil and gas in Israel Dallas based Zion Oil and Gas Inc. is offering an opportunity to purchase Units at $10.00 per Unit. Each Unit consists of: One Share of Zion stock and One Warrant.After they close the public offering the share of stock will trade on the AMEX under the ticker symbol ZN, identical to Zion’s currently traded common stock. What makes the current offering special is that the Warrant received with the Unit purchase allows the purchase of one additional share of common stock for $7.00 at any time between the final closing… Read more »
Pedro
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Pedro
October 13, 2008 4:13 am
VIX Index Options – symbol (^VIX on Yahoo Finance) Specifically Put options, because the swings have been so parabolic, the only SURE thing is that Volatility will die down (Therefore, I hope!, the Puts would increase exponentially in value). You could be more conservative & buy a Straddle of Calls & Puts in the further out months & wait for the combined value of both ( Calls & Puts ) to eventually surpass the Cost of both. If you can buy as far out as possible, you can sell “Covered Calls & Puts” around your orignal position of Calls/Puts that… Read more »
yogi
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yogi
October 13, 2008 7:13 am

OMAG.OB

Billion $+ Property Development agreement to be signed anytime now.

JimVarney01
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JimVarney01
October 13, 2008 7:41 am

DEO – Diageo Brands. Their price is low right now but with the phenomenal market share they have with their top brands they are still making a ton of dough. With these troubling times there’s a lot of people drowning their sorrows, I just hope they still buy the premium diageo brands.

MilesH
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MilesH
October 13, 2008 8:14 am

CNXT
Raised earnings guidance 9/30, stock went up, then down with market. Could go up again with solid financials.

Paddythe prang
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October 13, 2008 8:30 am

My choice is Jin on the TSX It should see a big bounce

spreadtrader
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spreadtrader
October 13, 2008 8:52 am

First Cash Financial Services (FCFS)……pawnshops, baby!

katachthonios
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katachthonios
October 13, 2008 10:22 am
TBSI – Yes the BDI is down and so is TBSI, but their price to book is .5, their P/E is 1.6 and they just had record profits last quarter (twice the previous years!) and because they have a different business model from other dry bulk shippers their value isn’t as dependent on the BDI (they had a silly run up to $70 at one point – I’d say fair value is $25-$30). The only thing I don’t like is no dividend (like say PRGN or EGLE – which have, at current prices 30+% dividends) but they reinvest the money… Read more »
Gravity Switch
Admin
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October 13, 2008 10:46 am
Yep, I think it actually works out to about $2,300 — who knows, we may get there, they continue to talk about more stimulus programs, and we’ll probably see public works funding increased, too. My oldest daughter is 4, I was going to ask her if I could borrow $5,000 directly instead of letting the government lend it out on her behalf … but she doesn’t have it yet (damn child labor laws!). I’ll have to let her take out one of those credit card offers she gets in the mail so she can help to fund my new big… Read more »
Danny
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Danny
October 13, 2008 11:15 am

AAPL would be one of my choices but someone already picked that one…. so i will pick GOOG.

I am also all for the fair Tax idea.

evan
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evan
October 13, 2008 8:56 pm

Nobody likes Panl-Universal Display–but me?

Rick Stone
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Rick Stone
October 13, 2008 9:14 pm

POTASH CORP SASKATCH INC ( TSE: POT )
JUST BECAUSE !!!

martin
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martin
October 14, 2008 4:03 am

hi, i love your site, best thing on the screen,
….
my pick is ENER, energy conversion devices;
why does nobody ever talk about them, or did I miss it?

greetings from italy
martin

Gintaras Lescinskas
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Gintaras Lescinskas
October 15, 2008 5:00 am

My choice is ProShares UltraShort Russell2000(TWM).

Computer Guy
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Computer Guy
October 25, 2008 11:07 am

CEF Central Fund of Canada. They buy gold and silver bullion and sit on it. If you think gold and silver are going to appreciate during times of inflation, you might check it out.

http://www.centralfund.com

Disclosure: I have approximately half of my IRA in this fund.

ME3tv
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October 11, 2008 9:33 am

Gold may have had its run with last year’s inflated raw materials. Now the word is “deflation” and maybe gold will be stable as a “safe haven” but not run up so much because of depression type economy and de-flation.

Clint
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Clint
October 12, 2008 8:39 am
Gold is a hedge against inflation and the dollar dropping. The dollar is stronger now since the world still sees the US as safer, and we are in a period of severe deleveraging (deflation). I believe hedge funds and other very large investors/speculators have run up the value of so many commodities, including gold, (like ME3tv said) that the usual market wisdom doesn’t apply right now. Gold may still come up in early 2009 but I don’t believe the predictions of $3000 gold will come true anytime soon. Just my opinion. A complete meltdown would change everything (in which case,… Read more »
Albert Galick
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Albert Galick
October 11, 2008 9:37 am

Almost forgot my disclosure: I own NXG

Also, I know of no legal action, so a better speculation would have been tax loss writeoff.

farley 5
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farley 5
October 11, 2008 10:05 am

Fair Disclosure – I just bought this one Thursday. None of my clients have this due to the risk.

Brad M
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Brad M
October 11, 2008 12:30 pm
Gandalf14, I am about 70% cash and have been for over 6 months. That is not to say that I haven’t lost money in the insane market because I have. Most of the money I left in the market was in dividend paying preferreds and MLP. Both of which have had their respective heads handed to them of late. I am curious why you think that having cash right now will translate into millions down the road. Can you eloborate? Do you really think this mess of a stock market is going to turn around any time in the 5-10… Read more »
Wayne
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Wayne
October 11, 2008 1:24 pm
I am your age with similar problems. My 401K is being transferred into a Scottrade Taxable Account slowly so as to keep taxes down and re-invested for cash return. Subscribe to “Personal Finance.” I think the other premium offerings of KCI are too expensive for me, but subscribe to all their free on-line newsletters. Look at MLP’s and Canadian Trusts. Good dividends as a monthly/quarterly trickle, and Neil George will give you a decent list of pre-screened suggestions. Read the new book by Alex Green, “The Gone Fishin’ Portfolio.” If the listed funds survive the current chaos, they offer good… Read more »
Sandi
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Sandi
October 11, 2008 1:46 pm

I love this stock and huge divident and just bought more to price average. But the word seems to be lower for a while. Hope you’re right!

Gravity Switch
Admin
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October 11, 2008 2:23 pm

Oooohhh, sucking up to the judge — I like it!

Ron Schoenfeld
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Ron Schoenfeld
October 11, 2008 2:29 pm

Great opportunity at these prices and I wouldn’t be surprised if a much larger company buys them out. Their technology according to some doctor friends is amazing and another friend used it to treat prostate cancer having six treatments rather then the normal 40 to 50 with great results.

Eric Sensiba
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Eric Sensiba
October 12, 2008 12:26 pm

ARAY is a great pick not only because of management and stock price but more importantly for the usefulness and marketing of the product itself. One-of-a-kind!

Foolster
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Foolster
October 11, 2008 2:41 pm

What I bought Friday was UYG not UFG. I hit send before check and validate.

Vincent Fertitta
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Vincent Fertitta
October 11, 2008 2:55 pm

Another nobrainer, you have metioned is ABB. Also buy QQQX, index on the nasdaq with a huge Div. I bought these on the market pullback around 1:45 cdt time yesterday. Already own Prgn, Pwe, Line and others.

Graham Jervis
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Graham Jervis
October 11, 2008 4:48 pm

i do

Scott Johnson
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October 11, 2008 4:50 pm

I use Scottrade. I was looking at changing to someone who offers dividend reinvestment. But in talking to one of their brokers, they should be offering dividend reinvestment by the end of the year.

TV Guy
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TV Guy
October 11, 2008 4:57 pm

Hey Scott…as posted above…the Gumshoe has set “American Election Day” as the deadline for the pick that “does the best between Monday morning and then”….and of course the deadline for all submissions is: before the markets open this Monday morning. I think I have this right?
Your vote would be : MGI…and the race is on.

elissa S.
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elissa S.
October 11, 2008 8:21 pm

This is a very interesting pick. They report 11/5. Can’t wait to see their numbers!

pagan
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pagan
October 11, 2008 8:28 pm

that gov money will be going in execs pockets
AIG has lost trust world wide.

S.MSC
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S.MSC
October 18, 2008 11:52 am

Word is, that on Tuesday, October 21st, the 156 billion dollars (or so) in CDS’s taken out on Lehman will have to be paid to the contract holders. Unfortunately, AIG is the backer. Sure you still want to own this…

Wayne
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Wayne
October 11, 2008 10:43 pm

I like to pick where my dividend money goes. Most of the time I do not want it to just stay with the original source. Several of the CE funds buy your new shares for you at Market or NAV, whichever is higher. Going price can be well below NAV. I can also pick up dividend money from a ‘growth’ investment paying 3.0% and buy shares of an MLP paying 9.0%. (That happens from “diversification.”)

Parker
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Parker
October 11, 2008 11:40 pm

Brad…don’t be sad….be a happy lad….you haven’t been had….check out SDS, SKF, DXD and SJF…your money will grow with the Dow going low….but have your finger on the trigger..as the spring tightens…be ready to press and change your discretion as the market can turn in either direction!……Good Luck nonetheless…….just do your best….remmember to never use your markers…..invest with care so long….Parker

John Christensen
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John Christensen
October 12, 2008 5:30 am

That looks like catching a falling knife. Good luck.
I am in GLD for the long term because I have faith in our government, they will continue to screw things up and gold will hold value while the US$ continues falling.

farley 5
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farley 5
October 12, 2008 8:57 am

At 7 MPG, the Brutis must fly off of the shelf!
😉

David
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David
October 12, 2008 11:14 am

>>how about the government inject us with the 700 billion, that translates into 297,000 for each individual,<<

Thomas, I think you’re about 2 decimal places off (high) in that calc (assuming 305M pop.)

Dan
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Dan
October 12, 2008 11:20 am

Hells yeah, Larry! I own about 20,000 shares of this stock, and I have great faith in thorium as a future fuel. In the near term, as uranium runs low and fusion isn’t yet up and running, thorium will provide the electricity for which our civilization has an insatiable thirst.

TV Guy
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TV Guy
October 12, 2008 3:26 pm

BOB…did the Google…but the web site gets a tad vague…can you tell me the ticker on this (and unit cost) to update your sumission idea.

Thomas Beyer
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Thomas Beyer
March 25, 2009 11:21 am
How sustainable is this 10% IGW REIT distribution and ever increasing valuation in light of FALLING commercial rents and FALLING commercial shopping center valuations ? Consider: a shopping center with a NOI (net operating income) of $600,000 and a yield (or CAP rate) of 6% used to be worth $10M. Now, assuming a flat rent (a big if !!) and higher mortgage rates for shopping centres the yield would be 8%, or a valuation of $7.5M. Assuming a mortgage of $5M, the equity would drop from $5M to $2.5M .. a 50% drop in equity (or unit value) .. NOT… Read more »
Sam
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Sam
October 12, 2008 6:51 pm

Thank you!!
I’ve held APWR since March and it has driven me nuts. Glad to see there are others that have not given up on it.

Gravity Switch
Admin
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October 13, 2008 10:48 am

You’re off to a good start this morning with this one!

Gravity Switch
Admin
11
October 12, 2008 7:09 pm

Percentage gain.

Big Mo
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Big Mo
October 12, 2008 8:07 pm
As far as a compelling reason to buy BBND, they have a proprietary compression algorithm that works, and works well. Some of the other “big boys” in the industry can’t say the same, at least not nearly on the same par that Big Band Networks boasts. So the choice for the AT&T’s, Comcast’s, etc. of the world is to either A: Outlay one heck of a lot of money to put in new infrastructure to increase bandwidth, or B: put in a Big Band solution to increase compression on existing bandwidth. Providers that don’t increase speed in one fashion or… Read more »
Big Mo
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Big Mo
October 12, 2008 8:12 pm

Perhaps, Dave, but the price of copper has tanked lately. Regardless of how big they are, I wouldn’t be one to invest in this one at today’s copper prices. Yes, increased demand may drive up the price, but now you have two things to hope for instead of one. Food for thought…

David
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David
October 12, 2008 11:21 pm

FRO’s dividend is 38.7% at the current stock price of ~$31. TDAmeritrade’s assessment of PWE: “PWE’s dividend is not sustainable. Over the past 12 months the company paid more in dividends than it earned. Over time this cannot continue.” (same comment for FRO, by the way).

spreadtrader
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spreadtrader
October 13, 2008 9:33 am

Oh, this is the “longer term call”. This will do best over the next two years. You may as well throw darts to pick what will do best between now and the election.

Gravity Switch
Admin
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October 13, 2008 10:27 am

I like that they’ll probably be selling their gas to Japan and Korea where LNG still gets good prices, and not to the U.S., where prices are so cheap the producers are trying to wrangle a way to get around the government’s effective prohibition on increased exports.

Gravity Switch
Admin
11
October 13, 2008 10:28 am

Whoever it was that snuck in and picked up some BRKB at $3,000 at the open on Friday morning should stop buying lottery tickets — that’s all the luck one person deserves. Just goes to show, when things go manic and there are no buyers, sometimes you can buy low volume stocks at ridiculous prices.

Gravity Switch
Admin
11
October 13, 2008 10:42 am

… as long as they stop losing money on currency bets and derivatives that they originally thought might be “hedges” — similar problems with some Brazilian stocks, including Sadia (which I own).

Elissa Stein
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Elissa Stein
October 13, 2008 11:01 am

sadia is a buy, here.

David
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David
October 13, 2008 11:49 am

Wow…..gonna be hard to beat!

Oliver R.
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Oliver R.
October 13, 2008 1:09 pm

Don’t know where you are getting your information from, but last time I checked PXP is in the oil and gas business and should not be moving according to movements in gold.

Oliver R.
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Oliver R.
October 13, 2008 1:12 pm

Bought Zixi in 2006 at .75 and sold it at $5 close to year end last year. Have been interested in rebuying, but I’m still waiting.

JGunnlaugson
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JGunnlaugson
October 13, 2008 10:43 pm

Rick
I hates yer stock
but I Love your style

JGunnlaugson
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JGunnlaugson
October 13, 2008 10:45 pm

Bob
Me too
so is Jolt Cola still listed??
There WERE better times.

vicky caskey
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October 28, 2008 1:08 pm

Thanks Wayne

Nan
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Nan
November 1, 2008 6:37 pm

Two green thumbs up for your post Charlie! Our investment in our hens has probably given us a 600% return! LOL. But lately a big rat snake is swallowing some profits, still, we’re beating the pants off the S&P.

ken
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ken
November 8, 2008 12:27 am
Ryan
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Ryan
January 31, 2009 6:27 pm

I’m feeling pretty good right about now.

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