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Now it’s your turn …
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As we roll into another weekend that follows yet another ridiculous week, I thought it might be helpful for me to learn a little something about what you, the thundering herd of faithful Gumshoe readers, are thinking these days … so I’ve got three quick questions for you:
First, I’d like to know a little something about my readers, if you don’t mind …
[poll=7]
And it would help me in my decisionmaking, as I look for ads and investments to write about, if I knew what you most liked to read about …
[poll=8]
And finally, let’s have a little fun playing Nostradamus — where do you think the market is going? We’ll assume that the Dow is the barometer for the market, since most media outlets persist in referring to the Dow instead of to broader indexes …
[poll=6]
Thanks for your help and your answers! I’ll write a little note about the results in one of the daily emails after enough folks have had a chance to respond. I hope you’re all having a great weekend, free from the endlessly scrolling red stock ticker …
Click Here and enter the ticker for your free Trend Analysis of this or any other stock, ETF or commodity, courtesy of INO.com (one of my advertisers) — after entering one symbol, they’ll send you info about adding your whole portfolio to the system so you can track the trends, (this is all free — and they’ve also got a free 10-session “boot camp” trading course available by email if you want to check it out).
The author will always disclose any direct long or short equity, debt or option position in any stocks written about as of the day of publication, and will not trade in any stocks mentioned for three days (72 hours) after publication. Full disclaimer is at the bottom of the page.
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Discussion
51 comments for “Now it’s your turn …”
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Am just learning to get into Options e-trade.
tt
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Mahkel Reply:
November 22nd, 2008 at 7:07 pm
tt tan,
I’ve been playing with options per e-trade for a year or so, and I’m interested in a correspondent who likes selling covered calls on a no-nonsense basis. Let me now and write to jmichaelmaile@yahoo.com.
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I think I am in the same boat as a lot of other readers in that I am retired, would like to be drawing on my investments, but they are under water and I feel it more important to reduce my living standard now and hope to restore it later, rather than trying to live at the same level and erode the investment base. Consequently, I look more for investments to avoid (not necessarily scams, but perhaps close) and letter writers to avoid; and, in that regard I find your research to be quite helpful. You save me a lot of time and effort. Yet, I do look for good investments that fit my bias, which favors foreign investments, but solid ones, with long term promise for continued and growing dividend income, etc.
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Glenn Ellis Reply:
November 22nd, 2008 at 10:55 am
Reflects my sentiments exactly. Have wasted a lot of time and some money with superfluous promotions. Would appreciate more guidance to the useful sources of investment advice, whether free or not. My basic problem, where does a complete novice go to become knowledgeable enough to be able to invest wisely in the current market, without losing an arm and a leg?
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Charles Sebrell Reply:
November 22nd, 2008 at 11:25 am
That you sought out Gumshoe suggests you are not necessarily a novice… Just the same, by the time most of us learn to invest wisely, the “current” market is no longer current, etc. Lord only knows how much sand I’ve pounded down rat holes. So, I then return to basics, namely value investing. A good source for the basics is Benjamin Graham, Value Investing. He and David Dodd have written a treasure trove of good advice. A current source of good insight is to read John Hussman’s weekly commentary on his investment funds (best to go back several weeks in his archive to better understand his approach) at hussman.net. There is a lot more out there and one could easily spend days and days reading, the trick, I submit, is to know good stuff from not so good stuff, let alone the really bad stuff.
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theaccusersgift Reply:
November 22nd, 2008 at 12:03 pm
a) http://www.amazon.com/Gone-Fishin-Portfolio-Wealthy-Agora/dp/0470112670/ref=pd_bbs_sr_1?ie=UTF8&s=books&qid=1227373319&sr=8-1
b) http://www.amazon.com/Live-Without-Outliving-Your-Money/dp/0470226501/ref=sr_1_1?ie=UTF8&s=books&qid=1227373347&sr=1-1
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Carol Talbot Reply:
November 22nd, 2008 at 8:51 pm
I’m in no danger of retiring as I don’t have money put away – a different lifetime and so on. However, Charles’ second paragraph aptly defines many of my ideas and interests.
I think the first question on the Gumshoe “vote” makes one very large assumption – the readers have money, and many do, but I think you need to be aware that there are people such as myself, both old and young, who read Gumshoe and a number of other newsletters (we read for free because we don’t have the spare money to invest, therefore there’s no sense in our financially subscribing to newsletters).
Carol
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Like the setup of the survey. Quick response. Cool.
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well I am obliged to comment, nothing much to say but that i enjoy your site, your information and your gumshoe-lickin’ talent as a sleuth debunking the getrichquick newsletter industry.
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I am retired in Canada. Have switched out of Mutual
funds to Income trust REIT div at 10.5% The income
suplements our Pensions.
Bob F.
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I love your site. You come across as knowledgeable and honest. Please keep up the great work!
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Milton Laiza Reply:
November 22nd, 2008 at 5:38 pm
Agreed. Straightforward and plenty smart
Old Beginner
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I want to complete my answer to question 2 and add :
1)Whatever the heck the mighty Gumshoe feels like writing about …
2)Income stocks with big dividends (ie, Verizon or Frontline) (46%, 92 Votes)
3)Foreign stocks (ie, China Life Insurance or Petrobras)
Have a nice week end.
Thank You,
Jean Samson
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I am mostly interested in non US stuff.
Canada, Euro, Australia, & sectors of *mature* Asia (Singapore & Hong Kong).
Sadly, USA is not a place to be invested in for many many years until trade deficiets are back under control.
The trade deficiet was one of the causes of the ‘87 crash at a paltry 10 Bn, and now it’s just plain ugly. Can’t borrow/print forever.
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First question was hard for me in that both my wife and I have retired in the past 6 months we still do consulting work for our prior employers and fortunately have not had to tap into any retirement savings. Like all of your readers we truly appreciate you sharing your knowledge, research and investment insightfulness.
Respectfully,
Eric
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Not like me to do this, I tend to be a fly on the wall. However this needs saying, of all the stuff I own my worst are from financial letters I have paid for. Since finding this site I have reduced by costs and been somewhat more effective in what I buy. The informed responses by readers is as effective (and appreciated) as the well documented reads created by the his lordship The Gumshoe. Thank you all. One last thing, I have read over and over that you can do no wrong in this market…. so why am I so concerned?
Highest regards,
Lee
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Very cool Survey. FYI, I just opened my 1st 401k account at DOW 7550!!! I couldn’t reason with starting it till now, so I’ll do my best to help prop up stock prices for you guys. A word of note, I picked the largest cap fund, with all money in stock, and all investments in the US. Spartan fund with Fidelity. Very low fees too. On a side note, I also sell homes. I have sold 9 homes in the last 3 months in Florida. So whether I am doing my part to help out multiple markets or not, times are not all that bad. Thanks for your insight and sleuthing gumshoe. You save me lots of time.
Dan
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I am 68 years old . I am retired and have played the market two years. I have mostly lost money until the last 2 months. I have been shorting the market mostly. I subscribed to those that teased me and I mostly lost money with them. This is the reason I really enjoy gumshoe. You have saved me a lot of money just in the last few weeks by your down to the truth advice. Thanks, I will pass this on to my sons and I will probably subscribe to your service soon. A fellow laborer is worthy to get paid for his service. Thank you again.
Sincerely,
Frederico
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Gumshoe,,, In a Word,,, YOU ROCK~!
Eugene
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Frederico said it best. I’ve been suckered by the offers, but,didn’t promise the get rich quick, more so the 12% and double talk from the “Pro’s”.
I PAY for the subscription as Frederico says, the labor is worth the 5 bucks… that’s nothing. The bank takes than in service fees at an out of town atm. Go Gum Gooooo!!!! And Thanks
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Thanks for all the work and the down to earth
advice. After subscribing in vain to several teasers over the years the balance is negative. If you would have been there earlier I certainly would have done better.
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I am retired but have a good federal retirement. I listed the money as “play money” because I do not need it to live even though I’m not too rich or young to care. I have both a small IRA and a Roth IRA that I started about 10 years before retirement. So if I finally make a bundle then I’ll buy some grown-up toy with the money. I typically do swing trading and occasional day trading as one is only allowed 3 round trips (day trade) in a 5 day period with an IRA.
The only service I subscribe to is the BullTrade daily e-mail ($29.99/month). They are doing pretty well with their advice. Of course you can’t beat the Gumshoe so that is why I am an irregular. This is the best $4.50/month you can spend. Gummy does great research on these teasers and I certainly don’t want to see the Gumshoe go away because not enough people sign up to help support this great free service. One needs to know what not to buy as much as they need to know what to buy!!!!
Good luck everyone,
Wayne
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My husband retired a year ago but still does consulting for his old company. I manage our vineyard and another small business. We could not live on this without dividends from his 401K. Fortunately, last January we sold all our mutual funds and invested in foreign stocks that paid high dividends. Still huge losses of course but the dividends make it possible for us not to drawn down in this horrible market. I am curious what the Canadian income trust REIT is the previous writer referred to? I really appreciate the comments of others as well as the astute ferreting out of the facts buried in these ridiculous investment marketing creations. Thank you Gumshoe! When I actually have some cash to invest again I will be an irregular.
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maregal Reply:
November 22nd, 2008 at 6:44 pm
Since you are interested in Canadian REITS check out the Canadian Edge.com site. Roger Conrad seems to have his head on straight. He has a whole letter on the canadian trusts if you are interested in those as well (some of which are reits)
Good luck.
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In surveys, as in speeches, brevity is a virtue. Thanks for that. The one category of investment that you didn’t list that I’m most interested in is value investing. Also, although I think the DOW will be up 15% by inauguration day, I think that over the next very few years we’re in for a paradigm-changing transformation of our world society. Let’s hope it’s in the direction of freedom rather than the way it’s been going: global corporatism and the security state. Actually, I’m an optimist in that I feel that the ongoing evolution of human beings and human society is unstoppable– like water accumulating over time, until it overcomes all obstacles and flows to where it’s destined to go. But enough lyrical philosophizing…
Shifting the focus, I wouldn’t mind some tips on using stop losses, especially trailing stops. I’ve heard 25% mentioned as a good trailing stop in these markets. If I’d used that, I’d have lost much less. I’d appreciate some knowledgeable guidance on this.
Lastly, I just came up with a simple system using a chart of SPX with its 40 and 80 day simple moving averages. Had I done this last year, I’d have been out of the market and shorting it on Jan. 2, ‘08. If anyone is interested in the details, let me know.
I’m new to your service, but so far I like it very much. I’ve even bought a couple of companies that you “decoded” (albeit too early). When I’ve made back some of the money I lost this year, I’ll donate something out of gratitude.
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I appreciate what you do and enjoy your sense of humor while doing it. I have subscribed to some teasers, but I always use Investools to check them out before buying. Most do not pass the buy requirements of Investools, so I don’t buy. I probably would have made money had I purchased Put Options! Keep up the good work, and please keep your sense of humor.
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Just for you folks who say you will become an irregular “sometime”, if I can spare the money you can too. I am 72 living on a perilously fixed income and taking only the annual minimum required distributions from my IRA. But I cannot in good conscience allow Gumshoe to provide me his analysis of the many eletter “teasers” without a small, and I mean small, contribution. Gumshoe asks so little for so much!! Come on, folks, support his work, which involves a lot of his time, for all his readers’ enlightenment.
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Your Qs are too rigid; put in an “other” category.
(I’m retired, except for the 10 hrs a day I spend on the internet with stocks, my “Lib”eral lists, and jokes, but my wife’s still working in real estate. Until this year, we lived on our income, but with this disaster, we’re going heavily into our retirement funds.) (pls don’t publish my name)
[Reply]
StockGumshoe Reply:
November 22nd, 2008 at 3:10 pm
You’re probably right, Mort, just trying to get a general sense of a few things and I’m sure I missed some other good options. Appreciate the feedback.
[Reply]
Thanks everyone — interesting info for me, hopefully it will make it easier to focus on things that my readers care most about in the future.
And I appreciate all the other feedback, too, thanks — please continue to comment, ask questions, and share your thoughts so we can all learn from each other.
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Interesting survey. Another 72 year old here. On Question 1:
This is play money, I won’t ever need to use it to live (too rich or young to care), Mastersleuth Gumshoe being younger, respected the elders by not providing choice #6 This is play money, I won’t ever need to use it to live (too rich or OLD to care)! In the 60’s I was in the market, and the only stock I made money on was one I shorted. Later my commodity broker called me up, and told me I sold my position during a downgap. the chart had one blip on the way down, and it was at my bailout. After that I decided I would not be in the market unless I could be IN the market. SOOO After retirement I opened an account at Schwab. I use their tools, msn, morningstar, + others, and an analysis program. With me in the saddle, I have only lost 50% of my account! I KNOW! It is totally amazing how someone can bail out of a shooting star (an argument for stop loss), and fall in love with a DOG. Hmmmm another argument for stop loss. Is there a message here? Anyway The gumshoe has sent me off checking out this and that, and it is interesting, and educational. I also receive some emails that I notice get analyzed. I really enjoy this site, so keep pounding the keyboard, tear the wrappers off, and enjoy.
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I am 72, had a Friend that worked for Smith Barney,
After I had retired I turned my 401K over to him $302,000. He had a “Plan” to keep us going forever,Two years later we live on a fixed income, Where he lives on a GOLF COURSE in Sun City Az. So much for a FRIEND. Gummy keep up the good work trying to learn the pitfalls….
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am 83 nme some good picks buy and hold ni source 100 in 1985 now 600 sh wla 1985 100 now 5000 sh pfe 5sh comsat now 60 lmt unfortunately none been doing that great for the psat 3yr. but u cant have everything i gave away some other winnrs to my kids like wash.mutual oi prgo etc
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I hope the real estate and stock market can turn the corner within the next year.
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I am retired as well. I would love to take a $40,000 investment to the ten times folder, but Google and ISRG come around so rarely nowadays.
I am afraid I am in the “reduce my Standard of living” and “preservation” mode now until this crazy market “wears out” and starts behaving adult.
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I was recently laid off from my job in the mortgage industry and since I am 65 I thought, well OK, I’ll just retire a few months early. No such luck. I have lost 50% of my portfolio value (on paper). My investments are in mutual and ETFs. Had $10,000 worth of CBS stock which is now worht $4000. Like a lot of people I don’t know what to do but hang in there and hope things get better. I get the solicitions from all the Gurus but don’t know enough about stock to do anything. Stock Gumshoe keeps me from risking my savings on some get rich schem. Thanks a bunch.
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Gummy you always have something salient to say. I retired at the end of October and have had more time to really get in and dig on my stocks. I have good stuff but it is still WAY down, drat! I relate to all the retireds comments above. Sure is chastening to have put together a good portfolio and see it trashed. The lesson here for me is to use stops and get out when appropriate. Ah me, as the saying goes, “Too soon old, too late smart”. But the market will again go positive in some future time, and I will be there again and profitable. Meanwhile I’m getting on board learning about options.
Gummy your good information is so helpful. You are a gift to all of us out in investmentland with your insight, humor and plain old honest approach. Please don’t ever change. Thanks a million!! Maregal
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I was just reading the 2008 annual report from the swaps and derivatives chief,and He stated that there were 400 trillion dollars value of derivative instruments this summer,Anyone have an idea as to what that value is presently? Thanks Bruce
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I am a 52 year old woman and retired. I have never owned a new car, never bought clothes that were not on sale, never bought toys like my friends did..boats, sea-doos, weekend homes, super cool flat screen TVs when they cost 10k…I lived within my meens and far below. When I had enough money to put down on a condo I would buy it, when the rents went up I paid an extra amount towards the principal, never spent the extra money on STUFF. Never refinanced to pay for a car or else. I’ve been homeless, less than ten years ago..and rebuilt. My stock market account is called “Vegas money” how appropriate. It’s a gamble.
If I had any kids, I would go and buy real estate in the next couple of years, to leave them a nice inheritance. I have no 401ks, all I have is the fruit of my down to earth living way. My tenants get a reduced rent in exchange for not bothering me. I am not greedy and it works for me.
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I have occassionly used Stop Losses, but almost
always have regretted it. Living on the west coast, the three hour difference can make a big difference in losses. At the opening (while I’m asleep), instead of selling at or
near my stop loss number, I’ve seen an instantaneous very large drop for my sale, and an instantaneous large rise right after. Beware the specialist, he may be out to get you!
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You folks all do yourselves proud.
And it makes me proud to know you’re out there.
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I’m turning 64 in a few months, and have very little to show for my investment efforts due largely to an undisciplined approach. I’m starting a botique nursery in which I hope to invest the profits. The plants I will sell have “offshoots” which I can sell, similar to stock dividends. I just started reading a book about how Buffet invests. Hoping to learn alot and end impulsive trading habit forever.
Bella, I wish you luck and hope you take advantage of these opportune times when you can own great companies while they are so inexpensive, put a little money into some quality dividend paying stocks. It seems the risk is very low now, so it’s hardly gambling.
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Enjoyed the poll. I particularly like the analysys and debunking of the ” great opportunities” offered by the letter writers. Covered call options can provide income on assets that are non income producing.Analyze your holdings, decide if you would sell after a 4-5 point gain. sell near term covered calls. Also, select stocks you would like to buy at distressed prices. Sell the near term puts. You will be paid to buy the stock at your price or keep the premium. The option chain of any security will provide the strike dates, prices and cost factors.Ask your broker for info. There are brochures on option investing available from your broker. On line orders are executed for minimum charges. Bon Chance.
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Enjoyed the poll. What do you think about the ultra shorts etf. They can jam the market down very vigorously esp. between 3 – 4 pm . Are they part of the naked shorts problem. The market moves the most both up and down during this hour.
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Don’t really care, but have fun betting on Call & Put Options. I play daily. Made tons of money, lost tons of money. Right now I would keep playing them down, unless oil creaps up again then play all the exploration companies like BEXP, REXX, NOG, TOG, ETC. I also like AUY for a gold play. It’s cheap right now. Another Penny is GSPG pure speculation play. Could make lots of cash. These guys seem to have an edge with the gold. Lots of shares out, but for .0133 per share buy 10,000 or more. Never know…. Good Luck
Some of the stock I mentioned may not be optionable.Also another lifetime favorite of mine is GLW it is dirt cheap right now, but may still go down. Even the professionals don’t know..
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Your survey might have included a question about knowledge of the possibility of recovering investment losses thru securities arbitration or mediation. If you have followed a recommedation that was “unsuitable” or your account was churned — you may have cause to file a claim. Assuming your broker/dealer is still in business!
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On the subject of Canadian REITs, the high return of oil/gas trusts like AAV, PGH, PVX, and PWE have gone from ~10% to ~20% (after the sizable Canada tax) recently as the stock values have been cut in half while the pay-outs stay constant. As I’m in for the long term, I like these for the income part of my portfolio.
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Thanks Gumshoe for you valued opinion, and debunking the teaser newsletters.
I’m near retirement and got out of the markent in mid Jan ‘08, so since then I’ve been enjoying the plumeting prices, possibly back to a “real level” where I’ll try to buy into things like good little mines with high % resources in the ground and easy mining methods applicable.
The only problem is that when they get really cheap in an over sold market they will probably be taken over and I’ll never see a significant rise that their true value deserves in a normal market.
So maybe there should be an extra alternative in the first group for “people on the sidelines waiting to have a go after they have learned a lot from the Gumshoe”.
Your broard coverage is really useful, thanks very much.
Good work has it’s own rewards.
Following hype does not.
Cheers
John
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Dear Gummy: I just recently came across your website and now I’m addicted. After a lifelong friend (and who we had invested with for years and one very well with leasing) I lost all my husband’s $385,000 insurance money because he misappropriated the funds–don’t know what he did wih them as I got regular paperwork showing the increasing value–but he is dead now at age 66years and I’m still going strong at almost 85 years. The stock market has crushed me but I’m in a few Canadian Trusts, which still pay a good dividend, and in natural resources, which should recover. My big concern is that I have two disabled sons (58 year old twins) and I’m worried about leaving enough to care for them. I think the people who caused this meltdown all belong in prison, doing hard labor, instead of living the good life! We always lived very modestly but helped many less fortunate friends and family–I know my deceased husband would be very sad over our family’s current situation.
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As a relative novice I’m not at all comfortable with short selling or options. I’m sure that there are opportunities for value investing, including especially dividend paying stocks. Sure wouldn’t hurt to benefit from a long shot every now and then to help recoup. Seems to me, however, that the professionals with their inside knowledge and ability to execute transactions in nano speed have the advantage, while the rest of us get in a heartbeat late on “old news”. Still and all, I’m trying my hand at “pattern trading” – a little profit here, a little profit there, and unfortunately some losses (despite best efforts at due diligence reading through the lines of conflicting information).
Gumshoe, you are THE BEST! I’ve learned a whole lot from you and your loyal readers in their comments.
Much good luck to us all, and thanks so very much for all that you do!
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I am retired five years, Wife retired 4 months. The value of our of our deferred compensation accounts dropped over $50,000. BUT I have a good pension and the wife a small one. Not using our deferred yet, in fact moving them to Etrade for greater trading opportunities. Read the Gumshoe daily, am an Irregular of course and hope to move more funds to the children,grandchildren, the utility companies, the local gas stations, the mortgage company, restaurants and of course taxes before we die.
Thanks Gumshoe
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