Comments on: Double Your Money Shorting Japan http://www.stockgumshoe.com/2009/02/double-your-money-shorting-japan.html Frustrated or intrigued by email teasers from investment newsletters and advisers? We solve them and track their performance here ... so stick around, participate and subscribe (it's free)! Sat, 20 Mar 2010 16:05:24 -0500 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.8.4 hourly 1 By: John Sloan http://www.stockgumshoe.com/2009/02/double-your-money-shorting-japan.html/comment-page-1#comment-8011 John Sloan Fri, 27 Feb 2009 18:54:53 +0000 http://www.stockgumshoe.com/?p=1157#comment-8011 HI Travis and all read Hsu note in his China Strategy - thanks for bringing it up here. 1 seems to me that Japan economy depends on exports which of course are impacted by value of the yen. When yen rises exports are hurt, when yen falls exports are helped. Currently yen has risen - Japanese exporters are hurting. But what happens when Japanese government pushes value of yen back down - export companies will be helped again 2 - the problem with the double inverse ETF is simple - it is the standard math that to equal a down move one has to gain a larger up move. A down of 40 percent requires an up of 67 percent - a down of 50 percent requires an up of 100 percent just to get even. These funds are recalculated daily - not long term. so their downs always require a larger up and gradually over time a series of equal downs and ups result in ultimate down. HI Travis and all
read Hsu note in his China Strategy – thanks for bringing it up here.
1 seems to me that Japan economy depends on exports which of course are impacted by value of the yen.
When yen rises exports are hurt, when yen falls exports are helped. Currently yen has risen – Japanese exporters are hurting. But what happens when Japanese government pushes value of yen back down – export companies will be helped again

2 – the problem with the double inverse ETF is simple – it is the standard math that to equal a down move one has to gain a larger up move. A down of 40 percent requires an up of 67 percent – a down of 50 percent requires an up of 100 percent just to get even.
These funds are recalculated daily – not long term. so their downs always require a larger up and gradually over time a series of equal downs and ups result in ultimate down.

]]> By: Rod Thompson http://www.stockgumshoe.com/2009/02/double-your-money-shorting-japan.html/comment-page-1#comment-7950 Rod Thompson Sun, 22 Feb 2009 20:26:05 +0000 http://www.stockgumshoe.com/?p=1157#comment-7950 The mechanisms of the Ultra short are a daily return, over the long haul they perform misserably, compared to the ETFs that are designed to double on the upside. As a result, you need to be in at the market peak (lowest price for a short) and get out during a big slide when you make quick $, as the value will dwindle in a sidways market, they make money during the slide, then it's all over. There are ultra shorts who lost value last year even though the Dow etc plunged by over 35%. You are better off shorting the long sided version of the same ETF. The mechanisms of the Ultra short are a daily return, over the long haul they perform misserably, compared to the ETFs that are designed to double on the upside. As a result, you need to be in at the market peak (lowest price for a short) and get out during a big slide when you make quick $, as the value will dwindle in a sidways market, they make money during the slide, then it’s all over. There are ultra shorts who lost value last year even though the Dow etc plunged by over 35%. You are better off shorting the long sided version of the same ETF.

]]> By: StockGumshoe http://www.stockgumshoe.com/2009/02/double-your-money-shorting-japan.html/comment-page-1#comment-7943 StockGumshoe Sun, 22 Feb 2009 13:23:06 +0000 http://www.stockgumshoe.com/?p=1157#comment-7943 Nice trades, Dons and Jim -- clearly, it's not that UltraShort ETFs don't ever work, it's that they don't always work as people expect. Nice trades, Dons and Jim — clearly, it’s not that UltraShort ETFs don’t ever work, it’s that they don’t always work as people expect.

]]> By: Jim http://www.stockgumshoe.com/2009/02/double-your-money-shorting-japan.html/comment-page-1#comment-7942 Jim Sun, 22 Feb 2009 06:51:46 +0000 http://www.stockgumshoe.com/?p=1157#comment-7942 My account is up 65% since January 1st using SKF, SRS, and TWM. I buy them just after they start an uptrend and sell before they peak. I avoid holding them on OPEX. My account is up 65% since January 1st using SKF, SRS, and TWM. I buy them just after they start an uptrend and sell before they peak. I avoid holding them on OPEX.

]]> By: Dons http://www.stockgumshoe.com/2009/02/double-your-money-shorting-japan.html/comment-page-1#comment-7941 Dons Sun, 22 Feb 2009 06:02:56 +0000 http://www.stockgumshoe.com/?p=1157#comment-7941 Funny, I bought ultra short materials SMN early 2008 and made 100% ten months later. Funny, I bought ultra short materials SMN early 2008 and made 100% ten months later.

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