Comments on: “The Next Stock to Crash” http://www.stockgumshoe.com/2009/03/the-next-stock-to-crash.html Frustrated or intrigued by email teasers from investment newsletters and advisers? We solve them and track their performance here ... so stick around, participate and subscribe (it's free)! Sat, 20 Mar 2010 16:05:24 -0500 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.8.4 hourly 1 By: jay http://www.stockgumshoe.com/2009/03/the-next-stock-to-crash.html/comment-page-1#comment-8835 jay Fri, 01 May 2009 11:01:12 +0000 http://www.stockgumshoe.com/?p=1235#comment-8835 It appears to me that DNDN was manipulated to shake out all the shorts..... see the followin from a good pharma website http://pipeline.corante.com/archives/2009/04/30/dendreons_stock_what_the_hey.php jay It appears to me that DNDN was manipulated to shake out all the shorts….. see the followin from a good pharma website

http://pipeline.corante.com/archives/2009/04/30/dendreons_stock_what_the_hey.php

jay

]]> By: Darrell http://www.stockgumshoe.com/2009/03/the-next-stock-to-crash.html/comment-page-1#comment-8549 Darrell Tue, 14 Apr 2009 15:44:26 +0000 http://www.stockgumshoe.com/?p=1235#comment-8549 Please, up, up, and away to the $100.00 day. Please, up, up, and away to the $100.00 day.

]]> By: StockGumshoe http://www.stockgumshoe.com/2009/03/the-next-stock-to-crash.html/comment-page-1#comment-8548 StockGumshoe Tue, 14 Apr 2009 13:21:17 +0000 http://www.stockgumshoe.com/?p=1235#comment-8548 Well, big news from Dendreon this morning -- and if anyone decided to buy puts on Dendreon or sell the shares short, I imagine they're quite unhappy this morning. Instead of the shares collapsing, as seemed to be predicted by Huang, the premarket trades are giving DNDN almost a 200% jump. Things could always change after they release more details, but investors are clearly now expecting not just FDA approval, but big sales (or a buyout before that happens). http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/090414/dendreon_study.html?.v=1 Serves, at least, as a reminder about the danger of short selling -- if you had sold Dendreon short you might be looking at a margin call from your broker this morning if you hadn't been stopped out earlier, since you wouldn't have had a chance to cover before the news came out ... if you had bought puts, you'd only be out what you paid for them. Both, of course, would have been the wrong bet -- but with very different risk of loss during a big move like today's. Premarket indicators are showing us that the "absolute opposite" that I noted in the article above can always happen (the $20 price I mentioned was just an example, I'm not prescient -- unfortunately) -- there's a reason why short sellers generally have been known for doing more research (and more worrying) than other investors. Well, big news from Dendreon this morning — and if anyone decided to buy puts on Dendreon or sell the shares short, I imagine they’re quite unhappy this morning. Instead of the shares collapsing, as seemed to be predicted by Huang, the premarket trades are giving DNDN almost a 200% jump. Things could always change after they release more details, but investors are clearly now expecting not just FDA approval, but big sales (or a buyout before that happens).

http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/090414/dendreon_study.html?.v=1

Serves, at least, as a reminder about the danger of short selling — if you had sold Dendreon short you might be looking at a margin call from your broker this morning if you hadn’t been stopped out earlier, since you wouldn’t have had a chance to cover before the news came out … if you had bought puts, you’d only be out what you paid for them. Both, of course, would have been the wrong bet — but with very different risk of loss during a big move like today’s.

Premarket indicators are showing us that the “absolute opposite” that I noted in the article above can always happen (the $20 price I mentioned was just an example, I’m not prescient — unfortunately) — there’s a reason why short sellers generally have been known for doing more research (and more worrying) than other investors.

]]> By: StockGumshoe http://www.stockgumshoe.com/2009/03/the-next-stock-to-crash.html/comment-page-1#comment-8453 StockGumshoe Mon, 06 Apr 2009 17:23:24 +0000 http://www.stockgumshoe.com/?p=1235#comment-8453 Thanks -- and good point on the "triple," though I think bypassing the fact that you need to put up collateral for a short sale is probably not the worst of their marketing sins. MELA has been riding a rollercoaster over the past year or so, thanks in some part to all the touting by the late Georges Yared and Marc Lichtenfeld. I hear pretty frequently from both fans and skeptics on this one, I have no idea whether it will get approved or not (or whether, once approved, it will have adequate sales to become profitable). Will be checking in on it every now and then. And a good point about performance -- unfortunately, Hulbert only tracks about 200 of these newsletters and I often write about ones that aren't in his universe. I try to mention it when I can, and to point folks to the Reviews site to get subscriber opinions when I can't. I appreciate the comments -- and that you're able to make a living in this business without making crazy promises, best of luck to you. Thanks — and good point on the “triple,” though I think bypassing the fact that you need to put up collateral for a short sale is probably not the worst of their marketing sins.

MELA has been riding a rollercoaster over the past year or so, thanks in some part to all the touting by the late Georges Yared and Marc Lichtenfeld. I hear pretty frequently from both fans and skeptics on this one, I have no idea whether it will get approved or not (or whether, once approved, it will have adequate sales to become profitable). Will be checking in on it every now and then.

And a good point about performance — unfortunately, Hulbert only tracks about 200 of these newsletters and I often write about ones that aren’t in his universe. I try to mention it when I can, and to point folks to the Reviews site to get subscriber opinions when I can’t.

I appreciate the comments — and that you’re able to make a living in this business without making crazy promises, best of luck to you.

]]> By: Michael Murphy, CFA http://www.stockgumshoe.com/2009/03/the-next-stock-to-crash.html/comment-page-1#comment-8420 Michael Murphy, CFA Thu, 02 Apr 2009 11:39:04 +0000 http://www.stockgumshoe.com/?p=1235#comment-8420 There will be no review committee. Provenge already went to a Biologics division advisory committee on March 29, 2007 that recommended approval. The FDA, under intense pressure from the Oncology division that was angry because Provenge did not go before their committee, insisted on seeing this third Phase III trial data before making a final decision. Dendreon is under a special protocol assessment agreed to by the FDA on May 29, 2007 with specfic targets. If they hit the targets, they get approval. I really appreciate your knowledge and comments on the length of time it could take for serious revenues. There is one more big positive between approval and revenues: A major partnership agreement, at least for Europe and Asia. There is so much DNDN stock sold short that I expect it to trade to $30 to $40 after the trial results are announced, and it probably will be a good idea to sell there, buy back in the high teens/low twenties and ride it back up on the partnership deal. There will be no review committee. Provenge already went to a Biologics division advisory committee on March 29, 2007 that recommended approval. The FDA, under intense pressure from the Oncology division that was angry because Provenge did not go before their committee, insisted on seeing this third Phase III trial data before making a final decision. Dendreon is under a special protocol assessment agreed to by the FDA on May 29, 2007 with specfic targets. If they hit the targets, they get approval.
I really appreciate your knowledge and comments on the length of time it could take for serious revenues. There is one more big positive between approval and revenues: A major partnership agreement, at least for Europe and Asia. There is so much DNDN stock sold short that I expect it to trade to $30 to $40 after the trial results are announced, and it probably will be a good idea to sell there, buy back in the high teens/low twenties and ride it back up on the partnership deal.

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