Comments on: Windfall premiums, massive yields — Elliott Gue http://www.stockgumshoe.com/2009/03/windfall-premiums-massive-yields-elliott-gue.html Frustrated or intrigued by email teasers from investment newsletters and advisers? We solve them and track their performance here ... so stick around, participate and subscribe (it's free)! Sat, 21 Nov 2009 05:52:09 -0600 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.8.4 hourly 1 By: Farley 5 http://www.stockgumshoe.com/2009/03/windfall-premiums-massive-yields-elliott-gue.html/comment-page-1#comment-8164 Farley 5 Thu, 12 Mar 2009 17:17:33 +0000 http://www.stockgumshoe.com/?p=1219#comment-8164 Just a note for your due dilligence file. #1. See my comments on Natural Gas in the Forum. #2 CHK just reported they will shut in 7% of their N/G production as I predicted. #3 CHK will cut an additional 10% from their drilling activity. They had 158 rigs last year - today 110. #4 N/G is on the way to low $2.00's putting pressure on CHK. #5 Bottom of trading range is $10 #6 Stock is a 2 out of 5 technicals positive. FYI Just a note for your due dilligence file. #1. See my comments on Natural Gas in the Forum. #2 CHK just reported they will shut in 7% of their N/G production as I predicted. #3 CHK will cut an additional 10% from their drilling activity. They had 158 rigs last year – today 110. #4 N/G is on the way to low $2.00’s putting pressure on CHK. #5 Bottom of trading range is $10 #6 Stock is a 2 out of 5 technicals positive. FYI

]]> By: Bill G http://www.stockgumshoe.com/2009/03/windfall-premiums-massive-yields-elliott-gue.html/comment-page-1#comment-8158 Bill G Thu, 12 Mar 2009 07:48:38 +0000 http://www.stockgumshoe.com/?p=1219#comment-8158 On the CHK convertible preferreds ... why not just buy CHK (today's close 15.61) and sell a JUL 17.50 call (last trade: 2.20)? This looks like about 15% on your money in less than 6 months. It's less compicated than figuring out the convertibles. On the CHK convertible preferreds … why not just buy CHK (today’s close 15.61) and sell a JUL 17.50 call (last trade: 2.20)? This looks like about 15% on your money in less than 6 months. It’s less compicated than figuring out the convertibles.

]]> By: Chris Grande http://www.stockgumshoe.com/2009/03/windfall-premiums-massive-yields-elliott-gue.html/comment-page-1#comment-8153 Chris Grande Wed, 11 Mar 2009 21:55:37 +0000 http://www.stockgumshoe.com/?p=1219#comment-8153 I agree with Farley that these are risky. I am not sure about target price but i would be careful with closed end senior loan funds - first off, loans vs bonds are dumb debt to have on the books (loans are immediately callable, bonds have a maturity) so the the company with the debt is probably not a solid cash flow company such as PG - you're taking an inherent risk by being in the sector in the first place, that is, unless the gov't puts an FDIC program in place for all assets - then you would want to own some gold (in Canada). Chris I agree with Farley that these are risky. I am not sure about target price but i would be careful with closed end senior loan funds – first off, loans vs bonds are dumb debt to have on the books (loans are immediately callable, bonds have a maturity) so the the company with the debt is probably not a solid cash flow company such as PG – you’re taking an inherent risk by being in the sector in the first place, that is, unless the gov’t puts an FDIC program in place for all assets – then you would want to own some gold (in Canada).

Chris

]]> By: Farley 5 http://www.stockgumshoe.com/2009/03/windfall-premiums-massive-yields-elliott-gue.html/comment-page-1#comment-8151 Farley 5 Wed, 11 Mar 2009 17:17:31 +0000 http://www.stockgumshoe.com/?p=1219#comment-8151 You will be able to buy PFN and PFL at $0.50 in the near future. Both are busted and look much lower. No demand there for either one. You will be able to buy PFN and PFL at $0.50 in the near future. Both are busted and look much lower. No demand there for either one.

]]> By: Tom Bates http://www.stockgumshoe.com/2009/03/windfall-premiums-massive-yields-elliott-gue.html/comment-page-1#comment-8149 Tom Bates Wed, 11 Mar 2009 16:55:51 +0000 http://www.stockgumshoe.com/?p=1219#comment-8149 Take a look at ATN common. Or if you want dividends, I like PFN and PFL. Depending on the day, these closed end funds trade at a discount and have a huge yield. Bank loans are currently trading at around 60-62 cents on the dollar. These are non-investment grade loans but typically secured by companies' best assets--cash, inventory and receivables. In the case of liquidation banks typically recover 70 cents on the dollar. So even if 100% of the loans defaulted, the lender should get back 70%. But the loans are trading for less than that just because there aren't enough buyers so when someone has to sell, they get a fire sale price and the assets are marked to market. Take a look at ATN common.

Or if you want dividends, I like PFN and PFL. Depending on the day, these closed end funds trade at a discount and have a huge yield. Bank loans are currently trading at around 60-62 cents on the dollar. These are non-investment grade loans but typically secured by companies’ best assets–cash, inventory and receivables. In the case of liquidation banks typically recover 70 cents on the dollar. So even if 100% of the loans defaulted, the lender should get back 70%. But the loans are trading for less than that just because there aren’t enough buyers so when someone has to sell, they get a fire sale price and the assets are marked to market.

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