Comments on: “#1 Pharmaceutical Trade for This Year” Stephen Leeb

By: bob

bob — Sat, 20 Jun 2009 20:28:30 +0000

THE SHOE WILL ALWAYS BE THE MASTER.

By: gary

gary — Fri, 19 Jun 2009 04:16:28 +0000

Keep an eye on Arena (ARNA). They are expecting another answer from FDA in Sept, 09.

By: Health care researcher

Health care researcher — Thu, 18 Jun 2009 11:00:56 +0000

I may be able to add a few useful observations. First, an oral version of an injectable insulin IS a big deal. Second, getting the substance through the gut, unharmed by the stomach acid is the key trick. Third, I can relate from my own research that it is definitely possible to do. So the down side? I can confirm some of the BIG players have been working on this for many years. The main hurdle has been to get a solidly protected patentable version, actually, rather than the task itself. From my experience, the FDA tends to hold up approval of these break-throughs by smaller firms until one of the Big guys has a competitor drug to launch (let’s say I’m cynical after seeing this coincidental dual approval scenario play out over many years). So I would say just play this by the charts, but not on the fundamentals that they will make a zillion dollars or even that they will be bought out by some Big Player. Fact is, if it weren’t for the trial costs, our own obscure dinky research firm could launch a product (but let me emphasize that I have NO DOG in this race — just providing some information that might be helpful, I hope).

By: Bruce

Bruce — Thu, 18 Jun 2009 04:25:40 +0000

First of all, with regard to Leeb. If I remember correctly, and I am pretty sure I do, his “personal Finance” Newsletter had a miserable record its last couple years of publishing. So he moved on to something else. Nice work if you can pull it off.

With regard to “emerging pharma” companies, they are a real crapshoot. I made some pretty good money on Dendreon DNDN when I bought some just before their first FDA review. Then, rather than walk away with some profits, I bought some call options on DNDN because I KNEW it would explode when they got their next FDA approval for their prostate drug. Well the FDA rejected it, and my profits evaporated.

I also lost a little money on Arena this year. They also had an anti obesity drug that some were touting as a “slam-dunk”. Well…it didn’t pass review, so that didn’t work out either.

One conclusion I have come to is that if these “emerging ” drug companies really had such a promising thing going, why wouldn’t a large company like Pfizer or Lilly come in, buy them up, fire all employees except those absolutely necessary, and reap the resulting profits ? the answer is that NOBODY knows how these drug approvals are going to play out at FDA.

I love these newsletter guys.

On a serious note though, I do like Dan Sullivan of the Chartist. At least he invests in exactly the recomendations he makes, and there is no hiding or switching or recommendations that “disappear” if they go bad. His long and successful record is out there for all to see.

By: Tim

Tim — Thu, 18 Jun 2009 02:31:07 +0000

I think these small pharma plays are a mixed bag that could require a lot of patience. I own a similar, but smaller pharma that I bought back when I was trying to be my own “gumshoe” and guessed wrong and got a “close but no cigar”. I decided to hang with it anyway since it was a small slice. My research showed it had similar drugs in the pipeline- so what the hey! It sat there for about four months, then it just doubled in a few days on a huge buying spike. I haven’t found out why yet- but not complaining. At least now I don’t have to gumshoe on my own anymore. especially since my track record sucks, even though I do occasionally pull one out of the dirt. Keep up the good work real gumshoe!