ZYX Change Method?
by blufox | January 18, 2012 8:23 pm
Is anyone familiar with this service that presumeably uses a unique technical analsysis system to develop longs, shorts, et al? The site is :
http://thearorareport.com/ZYX%20METHOD.htm[1]
I was reading Marketwatch ”Precious metals will fall if IMF sells gold[2]” by the apparent creator of the site, Nigam Arora. I have never run across this site nor him before as I usually never read this type of article, preferring to do my own research and technicals. Thanks,
/* Phil */
Endnotes:
- http://thearorareport.com/ZYX%20METHOD.htm: http://thearorareport.com/ZYX%20METHOD.htm
- gold: https://www.stockgumshoe.com/tag/gold/
Source URL: https://www.stockgumshoe.com/2012/01/microblog-zyx-change-method/
I’m a week into a free trial for this site. I wasn’t impressed with the comments on gold falling to $1200 if the IMF sold gold to raise cash to address the crisis in Europe. It seems implausible based on the amount of gold holdings they have. They’d only raise $140-ish billion if they sold it all, which they can’t come anywhere close to. So any gold sales they could make would raise sums inconsequential to the task at hand. The last time they sold gold, amounting to an eighth of their total at the time, over half the sale was accomplished off market to governments and the rest was sold on the markets over many months, during which time the price of gold went up strongly. I’ve queried Mr. Arora about his logic but no response yet. As for the service itself, too early to tell. I’m agnostic and curious at this early point.
The Arora Report has correctly called every single major turn in both gold and silver markets since I started subscribing in 2007.
They recommended backing up the truck and buying silver when it was at $17. They also told us to sell silver when it was $50.
When gold was at $1900 and everybody, I mean eveybody was saying buy buy buy, they told us to sell half of gold.
Regarding IMF, I trust whatever Arora Report says because they have lots more data and analysis power than most of us do.
Have you reaped reward on any other recs besides those calling precious metals? I would be very interested in what others with a year long exposure to this methodology have to say about the various newsletters, especially the short sell recs. Thanks.
Gold and silver are only a small part of recommendations. The arora Report covers the gamut from equities to currencies to commodities to bonds.
These guys are highly data driven . I have made more money from their services than any other service. I have subscribed to dozens.
The most quick money I made on the short side was when I followed their recommendation and shorted CCJ on Friday at $38 and covered it on Monday at $28.
You have to have some dedication and discipline to follow their method. ZYX method involves more work than other newsletters but it is well worth it.
I’ve quietly outperformed these Gurus my many many miles both simulated and real trade, beating the Indexes consistently month after month.
Thanks, Dennis. I agree with you regarding the sale of gold by the IMF — it shouldn’t depress the price of gold much at all. I appreciate your reply and keep us posted as to your determination of the Arora service.
all my best,
/* Phil */
IMF is selling gold by all measures, but doing it very slowly to avoid a significant impact on price. I have looked at Nigam’s website and understand what he has developed. While I think that some trend systems are fantastic for the emotionally stable and I like Nigam’s theory, I simply don’t believe that any system doing what is proposed in zyx change is mathematically possible for a long period of time. Calling reversals is almost impossible imo, and I have been darn close a lot in my career, but sometimes, like 2011, I have had to wait out 20-30% down periods. So, ultimately, while a mathematical model might work on back-tested data, market dynamics change so fast, and computer traders and hedgies adjust and manipulate so much, that a plain old good judgment and the ability to wait things out when you are fairly certain you have made a good judgment might be a better way. I have just started my own letter at http://www.galpinvesting, trying to use fundamental research and long term (slow signals) technical exits/entries. Take a look, let me know in a couple weeks what you think on the blog section I’m setting up this week. Currently free.
Diva Maria,
I don’t use anyone’s recommendations regarding purchases. Though I do from time to time look at Travis’s discoveries & purchases, and, if they seem interesting and worthy I examine them in detail and purchase same: CIOXY, COR, AOI, PEA, REL, ALS, SND, SSL. I am a long term investor whose portfolio has 78% in the following commodity areas: Agriculture, Energy, and Mining, The remaining 22% is in what I categorize as Banking, Biotech, Pharma, Technology, & Miscellaneous:).
All my best, /* Phil */
Phil,
Could you possibly share a web site or URL for Travis’s discoveries that you mentioned in above?
Thanks
I have been trying out the subscription for a couple of months.
His research may be good, but the results he publishes are not right…
His picks are fair but he has taken positions based on his fundamental research which is often exactly the opposite way the stocks go. Since he often pick stocks that trade at a low volume, it is difficult to get in and out at the levels he says he has got in.
He does not use options to hedge the positions. (Selling covered calls/ getting into a position by selling a put and we cannot usually do that as the volume is low.
$70 a month for long picks and another $70 for short picks are far too expensive for information that is available free at many websites like Seeking Apple; tasty trade; shadow trader etc
Do not reccomend
What are you smoking? In my years with The Arora Report, I have done hundreds of trades. Only twice out of hundreds, I had difficulty in getting the stock for short sale. Do AAPL, JPM,WMT,GLD, SLV, SLW, ABX, WAG, INTC, INFA, RHT etc. seem like low vlume? They trade millions of shares.
Greg, you are missing something.
Believe me I am cheap, I do not like to spend money. After my 3rd month, I quit all four of their subscriptions because I came across chartpatters.com that claimed to do everything arora’s 4 services did for 20% of the price. After trying six different cheaper services over the next year I returned to The Arora Report.
Their performance is great, they are honest about losing trades and they follow trades from beginning to end.
They do not trade options, but I have often used options to execute their stock recommendations.
Compared to other services I have tried, you do have to bring more intelligence and effort to the table and be willing to learn their system. This service is certainly not suitable for those who are not serious investors or looking to get rich quick or do not pay attention to detail.
It’s good to hear from somebody who’s had good experience with Arora. I am thinking of joining too, and have studied their website and comments carefully. One thing I cannot find is, do his positions need to take much price action AGAINST him while he waits for them to turn a profit? Coz if one is shorting, there may be significant margin calls since he doesn’t seem to use stop losses much. So I’d really like to know about the volatility of his model. Thanks.
You are right about shorts. Arora does a great job of risk control, but you will have to learn their techniques. It is a combination of tranches, stops, and quantities . Stops are used about 80% of the time. Rest of the time other techniques are used.
I like it coz nothing worse than stop hitting and stock reversing.
They provide details of how to manage trades.
if you get on board, carefully read guidelines and you will do just fine.
Thanks for your feedback Jack.
Jack, I totally agree about getting stops hit just to see price move back in my direction again. Nothing worse. But just to clarify about shorting, if you don’t mind, would one get many margin calls if I were to follow Arora’s trades exactly and within the right percentages that he recommends for my portfolio size? Also, can his returns be truly replicated if I follow exactly what he instructs? Thanks so much for your help, since I cannot find anybody else who has had so much experience following Arora’s advice.
Excellent points Greg. Thanks. I avoid stocks that don’t have at least 100,000 share avg volume.
donspeaks, I have done better than them on some trades and worse than them on other trades. On the average I have great returns. I have never had a margin call. Arora does not take leverage.
Hi Phil,
I came to your page here while googling on this so called Mr Nigam’s claim released a few hours ago on forbes.com (see link below).
http://www.forbes.com/sites/greatspeculations/2013/02/07/gold-traces-bullish-chart-pattern/
Any 2 years old child can draw a triangle like that. Seriously!
I’m surprised that forbes would allow this to be published on their site!
Anyways, my point here is similar to your earlier post on January 2012:
“I have never run across this site nor him before as I usually never read this type of article, preferring to do my own research and technicals.”
So, I am just wondering where you are now, 1 year later (and wiser) and whether you have any good tips/websites to recommend on research for gold (pun intended)?
I have a 20 years horizon to buy some physical gold (not much anyways) and I would like to know I should wait or just go in straight away.
Thanks for your help,
Not-Jack-Not-John (and not Ni(gan)gam-style either)
sorry couldn’t help it 😛
Hi Not-jack etal,
Here’s how my portfolio is laid out in terms of the percentages per area:
Agriculture: 17.14%, Finance 10.11%, Biotech/Pharma 4.76%, Tech 2.11%, Energy 26.37%, Base Metals 13.24%, Precious Metals 18.77%, Misc 7.5%.
In Gold and Precious metals: AUY, EGO, GFI, GG, GNT, LYSCF, MDM, MUX, PAL, SLW, TGB, AXR.TO, GPD.TO, SSL.TO, SVL.V. average holding period for the latter 1.57 yrs.
The only other person/site I follow and read is Donald Coxe, whose talks are on Friday at 11:00am but available afterwards at his site. They are currently free of charge but I expect he will be charging for the talks fairly soon. http://www.coxeadvisors.com
The Arora Report called the right call to buy gold and silver.they sold silver at the top and then gold at the top. This is all documented at seekingalpha.com. l started subscription after verifying the calls. So far I have traded 16 of their calls. All made money. I subscribed beause arora had a call to buy palladium but he has cancelled the call. He has not answered my email. Does anyone know of another service about palladium. I think palladium is going to double and want to buy now but want to see analysis.
Nver mind.i found The Arora Report analysis on Palladium. I was not looking at the right place. Arora also has an article on palladium on market watch.
I’ve subscribed on and off over the last few years. Probably made more money than lost following his trade orders. Sometimes his buy range is too constrictive and you won’t be able to go long or short, but then he closes out that position at some future time and trumpets his victory, when his rec probably initially came out after the move in the stock beyond his range. I think what keeps me coming back to him is that he is like an artist with his recs. Very unconventional and contrarian which I like. I usually just pick the midpoint of his rec range for long or shorts and if the stock hits that point I buy his recommended allocation (this tends to be more conservative than buying a tranche at the upper end and average up or down as the stock moves). Use of stops is probably a good thing especially on the short side. Some of his short recs I have not been able to borrow through Etrade, so that reduces some of the riskier trades as well. All in all, a very interesting service but takes more daily management of positions.
With Arora Report for full eight years. Made money every year. So far in 2016 up 36%, market up 6%. Arora has to be one the best stock picking newsletter around. It does take more work than other newsletter I have been with at different times and sometimes they are contrary. Good risk control. Highly recommend if you are intelligent and hard worker. If you do not want to work hard, arora is not for you.
My other letter is Zack. It is easier than arora to use . It is good but most picks lose money. Zack is much slower than arora to get out when a stock goes south. Not renewing.
Also tried cramer, it did ok. Good information overall.
Have checked the “intelligent” box.
What is your definition of “hard worker”?
Anyone else experienced with Arora’s services? Input is welcome.
Thanks
I have been following The Arora Report for a long time. I subscribe to their free service. They have made lots of good calls. I have been waiting for black Friday sale on The Arora Report to subscribe to the paid service. There was no sale. It was full price on black Friday. Do they have a Christmas sale or do you guys pay the list price?
I see that all the positive comments are from a “Guest” user. Hmm..
Is anyone a subscriber to Arora Report? Is it worth the money?
Guys be careful a lot of fake good reviews out there on this.
Anyone have a recent review of Arora newsletter ?
I’ve subscribed to ZYX “Buy” Mar – July 2020. Here’s my take:
* he has made some good calls and bad, mostly good.
* you get a full portfolio of ‘buy’ recommendations updated frequently but in order to achieve best results must wait for ‘buy zone’ which is normally 10-40% below current price. Several stocks for instance entered this buy zone only in the Mar 2020 lows
* he provides a full archive going back years, and it is searchable. But it is difficult to use, and I have not personally verified performance
* he is a prudent/cynical investor who advocates holding a significant portion in cash and/or hedges
* additional courses such as “Hedge the Risk” do not offer sufficient value in my opinion as they explain hedging techniques but do not explain when to use which technique nor when to buy or sell your hedges
* you get 2x emails daily, at least, with a general take on the market behavior and relevant news. For example he cautioned against the virus and suggested more hedges in Feb
* it is suitable for active investors who can trade weekly if not daily
* he hasn’t respond to my emails, not as a subscriber or course purchaser
* he offers a free month trial, why not give it a go and decide for yourself?