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Real Wealth Report by Larry Edelson.

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I just finished watching a video by Larry Edelson. He is selling a newsletter called the “Real Wealth Report”. He claims that the US and China are working together to devalue the dollar so the US doesn’t have to go bankrupt. He wants us to shift or investments to natural resources and food because that is what China will purchase. The website for the video is: http://finance.uncommonwisdomdaily.com/reports/RWR/DEC-VSP/dec-vsp-49.php?ccode=&em=&sc=AGORC&ec=4955103

What do you think of his predictions and recommendations?

Ben

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11 Responses to Real Wealth Report by Larry Edelson.

    • I think Larry might be right on to claim China will soon be the new economic power and leader, and the Yuan will soon be a reserve currency. But, i see a problem with the devalueing the US Dollar scenario. Now i am no expert but wouldn’t intentionally devalueing the Dollar mean that people’s buying power will go down with higher inflation, which would cause GDP to fall (people will buy less with less Dollars) , which would cause higher unemployment, which will cause less tax revenue, which will cause an end result in less Dollars to pay back the debt with ?? In the video, Larry claims the Gov is intentionally devalueing the Dollar so that it will take less Dollars to pay down the debt, but to do so will result in a worser case scenario as i described if i’m correct. To pay down the debt the US needs more tax revenue and less spending. Taking this into consideration, I believe there is more in the works than just devalueing the Dollar. I believe Americans are being made to pay to the rest of the world for our success, our advancements, and our ways of living which is far better than most parts of the world. I also think that the US might be making a deal with China, to help China advance towards a reserve currency as repayment for the debt the US owes to China as to avoid a confrontation later down the road between the US and China as a default on the US debt might be inevitable.

      • Gary, I don’t mean to be insulting, so don’t take it that way.
        Devaluing the dollar causing a reduced purchasing power, which leads to price inflation, is exactly right. BUT, that also means all prices go up. We’d have the DOW at 20,000, Gold at 20,000, and GDP (before inflation adjustment) through the roof.
        BUT, the government would continue to grossly under-report inflation. It might be at 17% and they would claim 10%. THEN, GDP would be adjusted down by this smaller inflation rate before the inflation-adjusted, official GDP figure would be reported. Thus, rather than buying ‘less with fewer dollars’, as you say, we would actually be buying less with MORE dollars. Then with the mis-reporting of the inflation rate, they might be able to falsely claim that we are actually buying MORE with more dollars, i.e., GDP will be reported as positive, when it really isn’t. (Right now, if you apply the current method of calculating inflation to periods of recession 30+ years ago, and then use that to adjust the GDP back then, you will see those past recessions disappear as negative GDP turns positive.) THEN we will have the situation where they’ve added another zero to all the salaries and transactions in the US, and be pulling in that many more dollars without raising tax percentages, not that they wouldn’t do that too. Thus the original debt looks more manageable with ten-times more revenue. But I haven’t seen any indication that anyone outside of TEA Party candidates are calling for actual balancing of budget immediately so that we aren’t continuing to add debt every single year. Balancing in thirty years is a joke, when every single Congress will have to uphold that plan every year going forward. Thirty years from now, Congress will be saying they’ll come into balance in just another thirty years.

      • “I think Larry might be right on to claim China will soon be the new economic power and leader, and the Yuan will soon be a reserve currency. ”

        Pure and utter hogwash. The value of the yuan is continually altered by the Chinese govt. There is no way that any industrial nation would use such volatile currency as a reserve. So long as the Chinese govt maintains capital controls on the conversion of the yuan this currency will remain unattractive to central banks. China would need to develop a strong open bond market before it could ever become a reserve currency.

        Hell, even Hu Jintao openly stated that while he sees the international currency system being dominated by the US dollar as a thing of the past he also stated it would be a long process before the yuan would be accepted as a reserve currency.

        Right now China is dealing with explosive inflation and hit it’s highest level in 28 months back in Nov. The only reason the Chinese inflation rate has dropped since is because of a weakening demand for their exports.

  1. Well I call it the invest in commodities with yield and yield in commodities currencies. themes.
    One of those themes is “The 8on3r” portfolio so dubbed as per the Farm Lobby’s tool from the heart of the corn belt, the Congressman from the OH-8th. Early on in the Presidential primaries he was outed by Tim Pawlenty for having snuck an increase in, in the farm subsidies program called VEETC. The Volumetric Ethanol Efficiency TAX CREDIT from 38 to 45cents, into the tax compromise on extending the DUMYA/DUMBO tax cuts. Caught with his hand in the cookie jar during a campaign season when the politicians love to prevaricate, pontificate on & rail against Farm Subsidies and Foreign aid as wasteful spending. So the Congress and The 8on3r” eliminated the whole VEETC subsidy in its entirety, but then of course retained the ethanol tax of 10% on Brazilian ethanol. Spending according to the most ambitious among the prevaricators that if eliminated would solve our national nightmare of 88% of all spending that goes to entitlements and Defense. Foreign aid and Ags subsidies none the less combined contributing in total to less than 1/2 % of all spending. But the electorate does not want to hear cuts to their butter so telling these lies makes them feel better and vote for the ones who will preserve what they deserve and have coming to them like Mediscam Rx_D with no revenues EVER, to ever pay for it. So we have a driver for ags with a friend in Wash, DC. So we have patched together an equity income portfolio of these themes . ADM which has been long struggling and pays a near 2% dividend. ADM recently rising sharply in this latest Sell in May consolidation. as Edelson’s outlook demonstrates legs. We then for income add the corn belt foot printed REIT structured HPCCP of HBAN. HBAN sits on a commodities economy driven by salt& coal mining. A nascent O&G E&P industry focused on the Marcellus and Utica shales. # new steel plants have opened in OH to supply piping to the O&G industries of the area and up into the Dakotas. And is of course then right in the heart of the Corn Belt. As per the price the HPCCP has already been discovered but can be watch listed for dips towards $26. Then you have the VVC the strong dividend paying utility that is an Indiana ute but does in fact service the OH-8th as well. The ~$2 Billion market cap making it an ideal candidate to be one of the next in that area of the country to be acquired . We also include the EDE in the same strategy though down in the MO ARK regions. The best watermelons come from Arkansas. Then the AG Growth international AGGZF the storage containers bins and grain handling equip manufg company that the Gum Shoe may have exposed as one of Rodger Conrad’s teases as of late. AGGZF just missed by 3 cents but improved by 5 cents, Qtr over Qtr on earnings. The earnings projections for the next quarter are 60 cents a share vs the 42 cents just made. Earnings for 2013 are estimated to be a near 50% increase. AGGZF with the strong near 6% yield as well. So then some other derivatives of, if you give a mouse a cookie… We find the channel trader LNN which is nearly 90% dedicated to pivoting beam irrigation technology. Another small cap that is a target for a VMI, DE, or maybe an AGCO. Below $58 LNN is a sure bet in the PPS channel to make $70 and then get taken out near $80. So then we have the record 14 billion corn crop in the ground now and prices are as per this teaser Edelson’s surmise generally holding up rather well. Even corn has resisted revisiting the YTD lows in there futures, so far. Soybeans have soared from Dec’s $10.50 to the recent $14 .50 +. Soybeans being more moisture intensive to cultivate (LNN) are being crowded out by drought resistant strains of corn which farmers feel more comfortable in. So we expect some strong crop yields in 2012 and then would speculate that the farmers flush with cash are not just going to upgrade their farm infrastructures but also invest in fertilizers for next year. Currently the Fertilizer theme is seasonally depressed? I just added 100 to (SOIL) on Friday at $12.75. The other pick then would be CF (BARRONS). CF is SOIL’s #2 holding at just over 6%. In the same vein we would look at (MOO ) which just broke below $50 in this current consolidation correction. So then you get a more diverse and some overlaps to the other ideas but some good farm machineries like DE in that one, along with Monsanto(MON) and ( DD ) the seed companies and then Monsanto working on more environmentally friendly pesticides . Pay no attention to Egypt behind the curtain! They are down to about 6 weeks worth of food and hard currency to buy food. So what? Well Egypt is our dear friend for the control of the Suez canal which is of vital strategic importance to the US wars against the Mujahadeen in SW Asia.. So we will be stepping up food aid massively to EGYPT, sorry George Clooney. So it is the USDA that buys the grains for the US foreign aid we all hate and they will buy only the best quality as the shipping takes a toll any way. To polish the grains requires the Aeration processes by the machines built by (AGGZF) and that mostly requires some volumes of Nat Gas. So in addition to the aerations Nat gas is a major feed stock into certain types of fertilizers. So I have included the channel trader RRC in “The 8on3r” portfolio. RRC again on the top of the aquisitions target lists. While nat gas is continued to be depressed but has had a great rally as of late back to $2.40, the stealth profits in the NAT Gas wells are the NGLs which are generally in the same price range volumetrically as a BBL of oil. Then you have the purveyors, and we like CAG for yield as well. Then the Obscure SISCO of Eastern Canada Colabor for yield as well. Keeping in mind that at some point in the price spikes of the grains the purveyors may be pinched and might need to be traded . So RRC a major player in the Gas fields of the Marcellus shales. That is my general group of ags themes that can generally be combined to produce a combination of stocks and weightings to produce a 4.2% yield. Buying on the dips of course. We can add to that other less well followed or overlaps like AGCO, TITN, CSQPF, CNH, The agribusinesses CERGF, AGRO, & CRESY, the wide ranging Nat Resource plays of Sprott (SCPZF)that also include some investments in farm land.
    Imagine the nerve of those Egyptians increasing tolls on the canal at the same rate as the tolls are increasing on the NJ toll roads and bridges? Then we must also feed our “friends” in Pakistan . While prosecuting Wal-Mart for violating the Foreign corrupt practices laws in order to be able to effectively do business in Mexico, the US pays out several million a month in cash for “tolls” all along the supply “roads” along the near 300 miles route from Karachi to SW Afghanistan. Oh everything OK…Something for me? Oh that is all you pay? Maybe big problems with the road , you wait and we will look into…..It takes a lot of soybean meal to grow Chinese tilapia for Mrs Pauls. Argentina’s crops this harvest have been hit with flooding and drought Brazil has had drought as well so the harvest from the Western hemisphere so far in 2012 is a disappointing one which is supporting prices.

  2. The Nat resources is a very much bigger theme to cover. Right now we are seeing an increased interest on Nat Gas on a valuation scenario. But with the price in North america now recovered to $2.40 from <$2.00 majors investment news letters are starting to add the theme. One this last week urged his income investors to buy SJT. Now I don't know maybe he does shave that many subscribers but SJT got a pretty good pop at the end of the week. Personally I do not like the Issues with SJT on the depletions. I am a buyer of=n dips and so as they were buying SJT I was adding to MARPS a slightly larger tranche than I had previously sold near a month ago with a $26 handle on a valuation concern. So MARTPS got a fill of awash order at $27.22. Then Copano (CPNO) a sort of LLC structured MLP, missed revenues and EPS while also announcing a $190 million 65% expansion in capacity to it's Houston receiving, storage (incl some LNG storage) and distribution facility. It has also announced more long term agreements on Eagle Ford shale gas. So Copano got knocked way back and a wish order filled . Never Go all in, so I had another wish order fill on Friday at $29.12. I now own it for a total cost basis of $30.13 as CPNO finished Fri 5/11 @ $29.62 with a 7.77% yield. My yield is 6.8% on the two tranches so far, I am ready to go in twice more on some lower valuations as I truly believe in the company. Part of that belief is in the whole North American Gas market being about to succumb to global market forces. We are about a year away from the first LNG cargoes going out of the Kitimat and Sabine Pass export facilities. There is an increasing interest in adapting more of our US and North American energy intensive infrastructures to Nat Gas as well. On Friday after noon Barclays came out with a Reiterate "Equal Weight" on CPNO with a price target of $31. So in addition I like the RRC as a channel trade with incremental accumulation from the mid $50s to $70. Along with the MARPS coming in, CHKR had a nice move down towards a better valuation. Maybe CHKR re-acting to a small dividend decline or just the name having an association with CHK? I think CHKR is properly separated from CHK in it's structuring. The newer WHZ is another I like and would await a dip on valuation. Never the less RRC is a poor yielder and so is the ETF (FCG). I really like FCG as the three major partners of the Kitimat project are all in there and more heavily weighted. FCG has acted promptly and demoted CHK to its's last place in weighting holding. Another Nat gas yield idea is FRHLF which like Capano is LLC structured but then operates a lot like a trust owning multiple gas assets mostly in Canada. Canada one of the qualifying commodities currencies. So with some weighting by your own metrics we can own FCG and an RRC and still have a strong 4.75% yield on a total portfolio. .
    Perhaps related but really more of a yield in a commodities currency story is another of Roger Conrad's teases. Capstone infrastructure. MCQPF/CSE.TO which is more of a utility . Trading was halted last week as good news was pending. Capstone had a ST debt over hang which along with some poor results due to projects it purchased in Northern Europe outside the Euro currency countries that needed injections of capital to upgrade them and do planned maintenance and repair that the sellers had fallen back on, and a 40% tariff hike on their principle power generating plant's nat gas supply they had fallen way back in PPS and had already provided guidance that the distribution was unsustainable. So they sold 20% of their 70% stake in the Great Britain Bristol Water to a Japanese syndicate. They retain 50% of the company but with the currency leverage in the Loonie, since the purchase Capstone gained a small profit on the sale and will use the proceeds to retire some of the near term debt it has been facing. So the annual meeting the first week of June, and the dividend is a goner at 15 to 17 % . But according to Rodger Conrad the distribution will only be cut by 40%. That would leave Capstone in relatively decent shape debt wise and on the payout ratios. If the rate ends up at +9% that is supported by earnings then the stock should push up towards $7 or a yield of nearer to 7%? Some of that 40% increase on the pipeline tariff should be offset by the lower avg price of the Nat Gas over the last few quarters and going forward. Capstone like a lot of other Smaller cap utes has been aggressively investing in Alt/Renew energy projects as well which are then mostly amortized against installation cost as the fuel costs are generally minimum.
    Valener is another Nat Gas ute that should develop into a buy scenario this next week if you are not too weak kneed and afraid to buy on the dips based on a temporary situation?
    Northland Power is just too good. I sold some on the valuation concern at $17.64 and it stubbornly resists this consolidation correction. Alta gas which is also holding a very small piece of Kitimat by virtue of their takeout of PNG.TO/ Pacific Northern Gas, is another great ute with it's strong markets in Alberta where tar sands mining and bitumen processing into synthetic crude are very nat gas intensive. CPL in Brazil. FAX if you are NOT too worried about the Aussie $ continuing to plunge? While there is renewed enthusiasm by some for forest products as in Ray James making Rayonier (RYN) a top pick the total returns in the medium term on ACAZF & CFPUF with their permanent unfair trade advantages over the US competitors have no US peers for total return and then yield in the commodities currency does not have to be a commodity theme. Both BP and RDS/B nipped at 5% yields at their intraday lows on 5/10, so if this consolidation continues then those look like good bets as well. SDRL is another in the Noaky along with STO. STO is possibly going to have an ncrease in reserves with some finds and deals it has done of late with The Gangsterocracy Russians, the Tanzanians, and the interest they may have in the Brazilian off shore oil reservoirs. It is a bit late to discover the MLP asset class but pull backs on AMJ, AMLP, and MPLI may work out. KYE is the CEF and it is also joined by MTP. KYE more diverse than the MLP sector alone. The GDPAN another way to get yield from a Nat gas recovery. The health care REITs in Canada have been strong performers Chartswell is a REIT but Medical facilities is LLC structured. There is the more complicated Partnership structure of Brook field Renewable power. BRPFF but that like Alta Gas has had a big sun up. The ETFs (EIDO) and (GULF). Gulf is 70% weighted into QATAR so it is one way to get QATAR exposure. Indonesia and QATAR are the number one and number two LNG suppliers to Japan the globes 3 or fourth largest economy. There are also the LNG players themselves and the heir apparents. So Cheneire, Golar, and Teekay three that have both common share offerings as well as MLP structures. BG Group of Greatbritain but that currency is not too sound against commodities currencies? Then you have AES which you can get yield in by participating in a combo of AES and AES-D . AES has an import and storage facility in MD not that far from the the Marcellus and Utica shales gas resources. so it could undertake a similar conversion as seen currently at Sabine pass. Then there is the similar receiving and storage facility of Emera's in New Brunswick. EMERA with a typically lower dividend as most US utes. AES builds these Turbo Gen Gas Turbine (jet engine with a power take off flange) sets globally in island resort nations and in geographies with strong metals mining resources but weak hydrocarbon resources. They typically turn over operations of the power plants and then retain some MLP like interest in operating the LNG receiving terminals, gasification, and pipelines up to the power facilities.
    I am willing to participate in special situations as I see them in commodities related themes with out yield for the purposes of trading but I think it is the yield that keeps you a bit calmer when things like a CPNO seem to blow up . You look at a oe year chart of a CHKR and have to realize that you need to exercise patience and never wade in all in try to do it in at least 3 tranches. If you get in at a near low and the stock rises there will almost always be a reversion to the mean. It looks like patience in ADM is starting to pay off.

  3. Demand the reinstatement of the GLASS-STEAGALL ACT after removing the Obama money manipulators.
    It is not our debt, it belongs to the banks that illegally gamble with trillions of $$. They are intentionally bring down the dollar, attempting to redistribute wealth and power to other nations (not locally but nationally) a financial Coup d’Etat. Remove Obama.

  4. No person has commented on the Biggest Plan from Washington and the NeoCons. If you want to learn the truth try by watching Youtube Interview of Aaron Russo (Reflections and Warnings) done by Alex Jones. Yes, I know you might think Alex Jones is a nutcase, BUT WATCH THE VIDEO ! About 1 hour 30 minutes. It will be the best time you ever spent.

  5. The whole story is very misleading. The overall picture is one of the US falling into decline, and while we have problems in this country – primarily debt, lets not go overboard. Yes, the chinese have more workers but their 810 M workers are 81% of their (estimated) working age population. the US has 160 M workers that are 72% of the working age population. Not as big a difference as the number seems to be. At a wage ratio of 6.5 to 1 the Chinese labor force adds $810 M directly to their GDP, the US workers add $1.04 B directly to our GDP. They still have a way to go yet. China’s unverifiable growth rate is 9.2% or .011% per worker. The US is currently struggling along with a 1.7% growth rate or .0106% per worker. American labor is just more efficient and that is why they are worth 6.5 times more. Rising real cost of oil (whether in dollars or yuan) are going to place constant pressure on China to hold down wage growth or continue to lose manufacturing dominance. china is betting and betting big on commodity dominance, both to ensure the smooth and low cost continuance of their dominace in world manufacturing. But that bet like all bets has two edges. continued world wide recession or depression will continue to depress demand (whether caused by EU monetary weakness or some other factor). A depressed demand could just as easily cause China to become a commodity seller (at a loss) or to manufacture products for less gain than the cost of (previously purchased and stockpiled) input commodities. In as much as the trust level of any Chinese financial reporting is highly suspect, investment in China or Chinese companies should be made as part of a balanced portfolio with these investments in the role of “high risk” high growth stocks or junk bonds and limited to the amount the investor is comfortable losing if everything goes south while invested.

  6. I want to make a comment here about his recent Power Portfolio, because I joined that in the very beginning and regret it. The service was not cheap at $2K for 1 year or $3K for 2 years, and its past the 30-day money back period. So far every closed trade was a stop loss. The portfolio went from an opening value of $200K, down to $193K in a couple months. There were roughly 5 or 6 stop losses which caused the $7K loss, and now there are only a few open positions in the account of which half of them are below water. Each time, he said he knew which way the market was going, but his crystal ball is pretty lousy at short term trading. He seems to be changing his model due to market corrections and volatility. Buffet is right that 90% of these guys do not beat the market. Now they’re upselling on the Weiss Inner Circle. Why?
    I enjoy his articles/commentary/videos and the Real Wealth Report has brought some long term investors profit. So if you’re reading Larry, focus on helping people save long term and get out of short term trading. Its ruining your followers.

  7. Larry

    I am a subscriber to real wealth report. Why do I not receive the pubs you are ofering to new sign ups?
    Al the 30% 53% and 73% stock gains were not called out in real wealth as BUYS this past year. All you have repeatedly said was HOLD.

    Regards,

    Jerry

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