by Travis Johnson, Stock Gumshoe | October 23, 2012 3:03 pm
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No dice on the final buy just yet — I was really hoping that AAPL would have a disastrous quarter because of the sales cycle and get sold down by 10% so I could buy some more really cheap. Still, seems foolish not to think this is at least a fair price now, with the world’s best hardware company and best retailer just launching new products in all of their key segments in time for the holiday season. It will put extra weight on the holidays (their first fiscal quarter, the fourth quarter for everyone else), so the stock should be very volatile when they get close to announcing earnings again in a few months, but this is still a stock I want to have near the top of my portfolio — cheap and dominant.
Hope you are feeling better soon, while weathering the storm. Yeah–I too bought a small bite of AAPL, but the recent shakeup in management might drive this down more. I’m a life-long fan of Apple products, but was not pleased with iOS6 experience–the four-hour download, their screwed up maps and Apple’s willingness to make it too easy for their users to mistakenly give their personal information to everything from Verizon Navigator to Facebook by an inviting keystroke. That is quite a changed image this firm is producing for itself.
Travis, I am with you on this one. I am still kicking myself for not buying when the stock dipped to around $540 or so a month ago. I have been a long time Apple stockholder (of course I didn’t buy nearly enough back then). I’ve added to my position over the years, and I am looking to add more. I am waiting for more of a pull back. $550 or less would be ideal (I would love to buy in the high 4’s but I don’t see that happening).
And I am not sure if you noticed, but a “contributor” (with a short position) to Seeking Alpha released a pretty negative report on a company you profiled a few weeks back – DDD – which didn’t stock from popping after earnings. Anyway, keep up the good work.
Thanks Ryan — DDD’s an easy one to poke holes in, it’s expensive and an investment in it counts on a transformational change over time. But it’s not as easy as poking holes in Amazon, which just reported losing money again and still went up, so the world has room for more unusual situations than you or I might imagine.
Yes, I was hoping for the $550s too, a nice 10% pullback from where it was earlier this week. We might still get there, I expect we’ll hear plenty of conflicting reports about volumes of iPads sold, and their margins will take a hit this quarter because the iPad Mini is lower-margin than the regular iPad or the iPhone, but they’re going to sell $50 billion or more worth of stuff this quarter. $50 Billion. With 25% profit margins, or something close to that. That kind of performance is remarkable, and the reason it’s so cheap is that people think it can’t continue … but they’ve been saying that for years. Growth will slow down, but it would have to slow down a hell of a lot to make Apple look expensive.
It’s 200 day is $590 so that would be a great buy point. You’ll notice the bounce off that today. I don’t think it will break that unless the institutions start to bail.