Going Splunk

By Travis Johnson, Stock Gumshoe, October 1, 2012


I’m tempted to buy some puts in Splunk (SPLK) following the presentation by Zack Buckley late this morning — he brought the shares down by 5%, but his brief look at the business model and the growth prospects, and the accelerated revenue recognition that makes the business look better than it is, point to some substantial concerns with everyone’s favorite data-management IPO.

Still, shorting stocks that are growing revenue at 50-80% is really, really hard and can quickly become painful — had some thoughts about buying puts because they’ve already had big insider selling and they have a lockup expiration in two weeks that could bring more selling in to play, but I’ll have to look over the company a bit more. I’d heard all the good things about their growth rate but have never read their filings … looks like Zack is making a play to be David Einhorn, Jr. and I’ve seen short ideas being among the most interesting so far this year, but his presentation was far less substantive and persuasive than Einhorn’s have been over the past two years so I’ll have to research it more on my own.

Quick note on it from Barron’s here. And yes, CNBC is roaming the lounge outside the conference and reporting on most of the sound bite-worthy pronouncements, but they have for some reason not invited me on the set. Out of respect for my personal need for privacy, no doubt. Which I appreciate.

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