The ABR Indicator Signals Stock Moves With 85% Accuracy

By pereca30001, June 3, 2013

This is a discussion topic or guest posting submitted by a Stock Gumshoe reader. The content has not been edited or reviewed by Stock Gumshoe, and any opinions expressed are those of the author alone.

I just received an email from Uncommon Wisdom to watch a teaser video for their Blue Chip Option Alert service. In the video, stock analyst Tony Sagami talks about the ABR Incicator (that is what he calls it…I don’t know if that is it’s real name or not.). He says it is found on the stock sheets of big, safe, trouble free companies. He says it tells ”what % of a company’s revenue is coming from this source and he calls it the ABR indicator. He indicated that the higher it is indicates that a stock is about to make a short term move. He then goes into using options to increase your returns.
Now I was wondering if anyone knows what this indicator is and how effective it really is in signaling moves. I didn’t really want to pay $1,600 a year just to see if it really was a useful tool or not. Any ideas out there.
Thanks ahead of time for any help at all.

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45 Comments on " The ABR Indicator Signals Stock Moves With 85% Accuracy"

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tructor
Member
7
June 3, 2013 10:25 am

I wonder about Sagami’s “ABR Indicator” also. He is a member of the usually reliable Weiss Group. Thanks

rmuthup
Irregular
0
rmuthup
June 12, 2013 2:08 pm

“…usually reliable”, and “weiss group” are two phrases that I thought I would never see in a sentence together.

Their recommendations based on impending financial doom/cataclysm in from 2008-2012 were injurious to your financial health!

BH
Guest
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BH
June 12, 2013 2:23 pm

Which services did you subscribe to? The Uncommon Wisdom products have done very well… I don’t see a problem.

Warf
Guest
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Warf
August 5, 2013 9:52 am

Agree ,their metal predictions are spooky good.

Havanese
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0
Havanese
June 27, 2013 10:45 am
Since no one has actually answered the original question, the “ABR” Sagami refers to is his own term for something like “Asian Business Reference,” or something like that. I don’t remember the exact term, and don’t want to have to sit through another long video to find out. Basically, the “indicator” refers to the percentage of business a company does with Asia. You can find this out by reading its annual report. Guess what? If a company did a lot of business with China in the last 10 years, it probably did very well. That’s all the “indicator” tells you.… Read more »
advantedges
Member
56
advantedges
June 3, 2013 7:03 pm

Robert – was that sarcasm we heard with your Weiss comment? That group has missed this market since 2009, but has ridden gold and silver down the past year — reliable?

John Z in AZ
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0
John Z in AZ
June 4, 2013 4:31 pm

The Average Brokerage Recommendations (ABR Indicator) is stock research class 101
Save your money, paper trade before you decide to follow others recommendations

BH
Guest
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BH
June 12, 2013 2:25 pm

John, ABR does not stand for Average Brokerage Recommendations did you just make this up? You clearly didn’t get this from his promo or his service…

Jeff J
Guest
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Jeff J
June 6, 2013 5:03 pm

john z,
Don’t think so. I can’t see Average Broker Recommendation tying up with this statement from Sagami’s teaser (and the opening post) :

‘Put simply, it shows you what percent of corporate revenue is coming from a certain income stream … one that mostly large companies have access to.’

Bob K.
Guest
0
June 11, 2013 10:55 am

The Weiss Group has a cash flow problem. Otherwise, why do they constantly tout one another’s services. They remind me of another street industry. Their services are not inexpensive.

BH
Guest
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BH
June 12, 2013 2:17 pm

Can you substantiate they have a cash flow problem? Or was this just something you made up?

alainbm
Member
1
alainbm
June 13, 2013 10:22 am

All the financial newsletter publishers aggressively cross market their newsletter so I doubt that its a sign that they have a cash flow problem based on that fact.

BH
Guest
0
BH
June 11, 2013 3:22 pm
I love how folks just make up that a company has a cash flow problem. Uncommon wisdom was spun off from Weiss Group. Weiss Group doesn’t have a cash flow problem. Weiss is a very rich man. ABR is also not what was made up in the above comment. Uncommon Wisdom Daily products have an average of 25% returns year to date. I subscribe to all of their products and laugh when I see all the garbage printed here. Stock Gumshoe has turned into a place were competitors bash each other under the false identity of “customers” but notice no… Read more »
rmuthup
Irregular
0
rmuthup
June 12, 2013 3:43 pm

I respectfully disagree. I, for one, subscribed to their Money and Markets (Nilus) and their recommendations were widely off the mark.
I was also tired of receiving their endless predictions of Armageddon – Greece, France, Italy, Portugal etc. etc.
I remember that their ‘hits’ included recommendations of Hecla Mines, shorts such as EUO, RWM, etc.
Could you please post what the portfolio percentage returns for the past three years have been for their flagship newsletters as you have subscribed to them?

BH
Guest
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BH
June 12, 2013 4:34 pm
Your logic doesn’t even make any sense to me, but I read almost exclusively Uncommon Wisdom Daily and Stansberry & Associates. Money and Markets analysts and researchers have NOTHING to do with the research done in Uncommon Wisdom Daily… Analysts only work for one company, there is not any analyst or researcher that works for both groups. To be honest I don’t really know what Money and Markets is publishing currently, but it is totally unfair for you to try to lump it all in the same bucket casually when they are completely separate research firms. That’s like saying that… Read more »
al brad
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0
al brad
June 12, 2013 5:18 pm

Yeah, uh, “BH”, you’re a “shill”. Anyone can google these newsletters advice and ROI tracking – and “25% ytd ROR off UWD recc’s”?? That’s an all out lie. I hope all that read this do their own due diligence, which should always be done prior to investing one’s funds.

BH
Guest
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BH
March 24, 2014 4:27 pm

Blue Chip Options ended the year up 56% which is the metric that counts.

BH
Guest
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BH
June 12, 2013 6:44 pm

The Product Blue Chip Options Being discussed is at a 30% gain year to date as of today. I dont know the specifics of the rest of the products off hand but I just calculated the gains from Tonys product of which this conversation is about and verified myself. As for the other products the last time I checked many were up there but I honestly dont know the exact average after this past week or two.

Westy
Guest
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Westy
August 1, 2013 10:57 am

No one does because they never present YTD, 1-3-5 year returns for their products. I lost a ton of money with Larry Edelson’s Real Wealth. His system didn’t work worth crap in 2011-2012. Yet he still touts huge gains by always factoring in golds run from 2001 on. This is the third newsletter Tony has started this year. First Global Resource Hunter, then Resource Millionaire, now Blue chip option alert. I canceled my Global Resource Hunter after hes started the next newsletter and the update advice started to disappear.

Options Trader
Guest
0
Options Trader
September 10, 2013 10:07 pm

Westy can you check your info, I don’t think Tony had anything to do with Global Resource Hunter or Junior Resource Millionaire… Also Larry doesn’t work for Uncommon Wisdom anymore. Try Money and Markets.

BH
Guest
0
BH
June 12, 2013 11:37 pm
Most of the services were around the 20-30% range a few weeks ago when I last examined the services (not taking into consideration brokerage fees, etc), but many have come down some since. So let me retract my guesstimate of 25% and allow me give you the exact service YTD %’s instead for the services individually, Blue Chip Options is at 29.93% YTD. International ETF Trader is currently at 17% YTD (was 20% a few weeks ago), Junior Resource Millionaire is at 15.65% (Was 25% a few weeks ago), and The Infrastructure Report and Global Resource Hunter reports are doing… Read more »
BH
Guest
0
BH
June 13, 2013 10:40 am

If you are new to investing I would recommend reading books on stock valuation like “The Intelligent Investor” by Ben Graham. I always tell new investors to start with books and tell them not to make a real trade for the first year until they are confident in their ability to “price a stock” or at least begin to discuss multiples and peer groups and understand how the “market” prices things. Again options are not for new to investing folks in my opinion.

alainbm
Member
1
alainbm
June 13, 2013 11:07 am

I’ll second the book recommendation and add to look for the version which has a commentary from Jason Zweig. I’ll also second to stay away from options for the foreseeable future.

charlie981947
Member
0
charlie981947
August 18, 2013 1:45 pm

IMO options are the only way to trade. Learn about “Leaps”. Options allow you to control more shares at lower prices so the opportunity for profits, and losses, is enhanced. To give you an example Larry Edelson, Money and Markets recently recommended Kinross (KGC). Aug 5 price was 5.10, today 5.92 for a gain of 16%. Jan 2015 $5 leaps acquired at 1.35 last traded at 2.00 for a gain of 48%. Assuming someone was intent on buying KGC would you rather own the stock or the options. Options for me

L Acaster
Guest
0
August 5, 2013 2:51 pm
I subcribed to this service but found that the stocks take quite a while to gain and usually drop after the recommendation, and may or may not appreciate. I am down 3 grand due to the one stock I purchased since that was his overseas recommendations. I lost thousands in 1989 with Weiss because he was good in a down market, but not good at all in a sideways market in options, and his touted return of 189% for the year took a huge turn at that point. I am just letting my Real Wealth run out and not subscribing… Read more »
Clay
Guest
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Clay
August 17, 2013 5:13 pm

I joined gold & silver trader the last half of June 2013. Net gains have more than doubled 3 year subscription requirement. Several purchases are up 10-12%+ in less than 10 days. Larry is off to a great start on this one.

Randall
Guest
0
August 17, 2013 9:09 pm
I got on board with Weiss and company in 2006 with one of their “Lifetime Memberships”. Cost me 8k and I fluked a good return on a double leveraged financial ETF in the crash and recouped it. Pretty soon after I stopped following Weiss advice. They sometimes get lucky and then they refer to that advice over and over. They never mention their bad advice. Their YTD return info for their services is not very impressive, and that statement has held up for 8 years. Following a 20 day MA crossover almost universally beat their advice for the past 7… Read more »
Jeff B
Guest
0
Jeff B
August 17, 2013 9:51 pm
Reviewer BH is obviously a paid Shill. Some of the other reviewers sound bogus too. I subscribed to Larry Edelson’s Real Wealth Report (RWR) for 2 years. If I followed his advice, I would have lost a lot of money. He continually recommended shorting gold and silver during it’s massive rise in 2010. When it hit about $1800, he said he was wrong. After it dropped from its high and started heading down again, he once again recommended shorting. His long term views are intriguing, in the short to medium term he does not fare well. For the period from… Read more »
Jeff B
Guest
0
Jeff B
August 17, 2013 10:50 pm

In 2006, Weiss Research, Martin Weiss and Larry Edelson were fined $2.1M by the SEC for advertising 400% returns on premium service newsletters ($1,000 to $5,000 annual subscription rates), while subscribers actually lost money. Sound familiar?
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/newsletter-publisher-weiss-pays-21m-to-settle-sec-claims
http://www.sec.gov/litigation/admin/2006/ia-2525.pdf

optiinstrader1
Guest
0
optiinstrader1
August 18, 2013 12:57 am

Neither Martin Weiss or Larry Edlestein work on or for Uncommon Wisdom. If you are looking for them moneyandmarkets.com is the right place which is a different outfit.

clay
Guest
0
clay
August 18, 2013 11:15 am

the auto trader process took $$$ and made trades for clients automatically and the client had no input or review in the process. why would anyone do that?

regarding losses never being shown and negatives not being discussed Larry has stated that 70% of purchases will be losers but will be mitigated by sell stops which is what he’s doing. he also publishes spreadsheets showing all trade recommendations with enough information to determine dates of entry and exist, purchase and sell prices and ROI. I’ve created my own to include commissions.

clay
Guest
0
clay
August 18, 2013 11:03 am

when you lost money with Larry did you follow all of his specified trades or were you selective? when you placed orders did you also set sell stops at his specified prices. when you had gaining trades did you raise sell stops to the levels he specified?

of the trades i’ve made so far just over half are losers but the loss was contained with sell stops. the gains are being controlled by raising sell stops.

Jeff B
Guest
0
Jeff B
August 18, 2013 5:19 pm
I precisely followed all of Larry’s recommendations for 2 years, with 1 exception. I considered shorting gold and silver in 2010 too risky. Had I followed that recommendation, I would have lost a lot. As it stands, I broke about even. I have followed Money and Markets, as well as the Uncommon Wisdom folks for years. I see a consistent pattern of hyping a new premium service, then later learning of subscribers losing large amounts of money (in addition to the high premium subscription fee). There a lots of stories here on Stock Gumshoe of people incurring substantial losses. The… Read more »
Clay
Guest
0
Clay
August 18, 2013 5:51 pm

Thank you for your input. I iparticate in their hard asset alliance and intend on buying into gold & silver bars as I think those will gain significantly in next several years.

Did you find Larry more knowledgeable in areas like metals and less in others or are your comments across the board?

Jeff B
Guest
0
Jeff B
August 18, 2013 9:30 pm
Larry’s macro economic view of metals is useful, as they are on a general uptrend as a result of monetary policy. The problem I see is that he tries to trade short to medium term moves in metals, and is usually wrong. When he recommends shorting metals, and they go up – you can lose some big bucks. Sean Broderick is their other metals guy, and his track record is similar. In 2010 when gold was about $1300, Larry advised shorting it – and steadfastly told his subscribers every week gold was going to tank – and that he was… Read more »
Clay
Guest
0
Clay
August 18, 2013 10:21 pm

I’ll monitor my trades very closely. Check back every month or so and I’ll tell you how I’m doing. Thank you for your input.

Rod Harrell
Guest
0
Rod Harrell
August 26, 2013 8:44 am
The indicator is probably named after the geographic Regionality of its Greatest Revenue Source, ie. “ASIA BACKED REVENUE”, thus; ABR indicator. China’s Stock market woes is probably a result of a Chinese YUAN Strengthening Trend which began upon its float on the Foreign Exchange Market and the controlled widening of the daily trading band, as I’ve said before, a Country’s Currency Index and its Stock Indexes have an opposite correlation, as the Country Currency Index Strengthens, The Country’s Stock Index Declines and Vice Versa, as the Country’s Currency Index Weakens, the Country’s Stock Indexes Appreciate as a general rule of… Read more »
Rod Harrell
Guest
0
Rod Harrell
August 26, 2013 9:27 am

Another thought on the indicator name, it could be APPLE Based Revenue, but then again maybe that’s another idea that can be explored, maybe even narrow it down to a Product Based Revenue indicator, but that would require SEC Rules to require Public Corps to detail their financial reports, probably won’t ever happen… But if you ever had a Hot Product from any company to follow, an indicator to find the revenues linked to that product would be a plus…

rodmt5harrell
Member
0
rodmt5harrell
August 26, 2013 9:42 am
http://www.zacks.com/help/about_abr.php ABOUT ABR RANK IN INDUSTRY You should always place your money in the best stocks in the best industries. When you understand the value of brokerage research, then you will start that journey by first exploring the Industry Rank by ABR list to find those top industries. Step two leads you here, to the ABR Rank in Industry, where you will find the most attractive stocks in those hot industries. What is the ABR? As the name implies the ABR will show you the Average of Brokerage Recommendations on a given stock. The benefit is that you quickly get… Read more »
rodmt5harrell
Member
0
rodmt5harrell
August 27, 2013 8:31 am

Perhaps somebody should work on a fundamental indicator named “EPSPT”, Electronic Payment Systems Product Tracker, OR “VMCPST”, Visa Mastercard Product Sales Tracker. The data already exists without divulging privacy of the purchaser, I’m only interested in the numbers of specific products sold in real time, and that data can be traced down to all components of a product and each component’s manufacturers and sales, distribution related companies and can be used for better projections of quarterly & annual manufacturer & retailer profits by industry, by company, by products, and thereby produce better data for better share price projected forecasts.

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