by xiexgp | December 23, 2013 10:39 am
This is premium content. To view this article (and to have full access to the rest of our articles), sign up. Already a member? Log in.
Source URL: https://www.stockgumshoe.com/2013/12/microblog-thoughts-from-myron-year-end-reflections-on-economic-realities/
Copyright ©2024 Stock Gumshoe unless otherwise noted.
Myron-
Any thoughts on the complete tanking of Collossus Minerals? Are they toast or an attractive speculation at $.04?
No Crystal Ball here, but I have been in and out of Collossus for quite a number of years since it was first profiled on 60 Mns. I currently own some stock again and am hopeful that I will again make some profits as I did previously.. My thinking is that the resource is simply too big not to get developed eventually. That being said, the TIMING is difficult, if Colossus can not raise the money directly to develop the project then somebody with better market credit will probably step in and buy it out at a premium. My further thinking is that with the cost of production for most miners now exceeding the current market price there is very little downside risk but tremendous upside potential given the demand for precious metals from the East, China in particular. IF Colossus has enough cash to survive until the market turns positive and sentiment towards the sector changes then it will enhance their chances of raising the necessary capitol, OR they will get taken over at a nice premium. As per the 2 takeovers/mergers mentioned in my column, even a takeover bid @ .10 would produce a very worthwhile profit, but yes this is definitely “speculation” territory. For someone who has not been there before, I can appreciate that it appears to be a highly risky venture, but having had experience with this type of situations before I am hopeful the outcome will be positive. The best approach, don’t bet more than you can afford to lose.
Mr. Martin,
While I am a relative newcomer to the investing world, and I am not the brightest bulb in the chandelier, I do pride myself on eventually being able to figure things out. I have read Mr. Grahams book, twice, and continue to learn from it. I also read every link, paragraph and page yourself and the Mighty Gumshoe publish. So I am confused when I read IBC’s financial statement, and they are covered in red ink. As a matter of fact, a majority of the JR. Miners all show losses, and claim as much in their statements. Due diligence and Mr. Grahams philosophy would not have us purchasing these stocks. What makes your conviction so steadfast?
I mean not to criticize your recommendation, but rather to learn what methodology you use to pick a winner out of what appears to be a cache of losers. I understand there is a great amount of speculation involved, but I have noticed somewhat of a trend in your picks, and have made purchases based on my own investigation of the companies, but I still wonder why, as their share value withers away and goes to money heaven. As I said, I would appreciate understanding what you see in IBC, or how you went about learning where to look to make this recommendation. Thank you for your insight and information.
Thank you for your thoughtful feedback Tim, maybe the best answer I can give you is that I look beyond a companies financial statement to visualize where “breakthrough technology” can take them. I view IBC as a “game changer” stock. Look how quickly the price jumped when their press release announced the potential for a contract for parts for the F-35 fighter jet. This is only one of many potential contracts for their ground breaking alloys of beryllium based parts for the military for which they have little or no competition. 2) Mgmt. and directors and key investors can carry the company until the stock price reaches a point where they can raise expansion finances at a reasonable cost.
3) Agreements with Universities give them an edge in developing additional game changing technology such as safer uranium fuel, again being in the forefront of a needed change.
Granted, there could be competition from thorium, but since the beryllium enhanced fuel can be used in existing reactors its chances of being adopted FIRST would appear to be quite good. 4) Check how many companies that appeared near bankruptcy went on to become huge successes, Apple becoming immediately to mind.
5) These speculative stocks IN TOTAL should probably constitute no more than 10% of your total portfolio. 6) Market sentiment can change just as fast as the weather, when it does stocks like this can give you a quick double or triple.
Mr. Martin. Thank you for the reply. One thing I have learned, is one should not stop learning! Your thought process is a learning experience, and it will help me by identifying other areas of research I can do into a company. While in the course of working to educate myself in the investment field, I have subscribed to and cancelled from several newsletters. I DO NOT forsee myself cancelling the opportunity to be an “Irregular”, and I just paid for my subscription to the PumpandDump.com site. Out of all the information swirling about, these 2 sites haven proven to be reliable, honest and accurate. I appreciate it very much.
Many thanks for your articles, Myron. Wishing you a very happy holiday.
I agree with Mr. Colmerauer… including his very diplomatic articulation. I like the idea of IBC but would love to have a better understanding of it’s economic potential. I noticed that Yahoo finance has one analyst giving a one year target of $0.90, but with PE and EPS both “N/A”, I wonder how the enthusiasm is justified.
By the Way, Myron, I love your comments as I have an interest in miners, especially Junior Miners. However, all my plays are down from purchase time except for Dynacor Gold Mines and Brigus Gold. Dynacor has been rising steadily in spite of the beating in gold. It’s up 48% since my purchase.
Peace and Love everybody.
Random set of end of year thoughts here, but hoping for feedback/debate once you’re bored with cold turkey sandwiches.
While I have the utmost respect for Myron’s research and skills (certainly he has been v indulgent of my silly q&a’s…..thanx M), he, and his legion ilk, seem to imagine that if/when fiat crashes, the world will inevitably revert to the old precious metals as standard currency. Surprisingly little changed in the human way of life between caveman and the industrial revolution. But mankind has moved on immeasurably during the last 2 centuries. Can you imagine we will ever revert to an Amish world of horse and cart existence, trading a grain of gold for a piglet? We have all been conditioned to NEEDING a regular dose of some Johnson and Johnson drug and air con. Will that need ever vanish just coz the $ crashes? You cannot turn the technology clock back. Even if the crash comes, if there’s a need for electricity, someone WILL still be generating it, or we will all have to retrain to make our own candles. So, some shares WILL always be as good (or better) than gold. But how will we pay for it?
As we all know, gold is a fairly rare, useless, indestructible substance…..perhaps that’s been its strength? But these days, if the crunch came, would you sell your edible pig for a grain of useless gold? Well I suspect not unless everyone agreed that the same grain of gold would buy another pig. Gold is/was simply a gentleman’s agreement of stable value which relied on its rarity. But it aint so rare these days.
Are there better bases now ? I’ll utter the scary word Bitcoin here and most of you will immediate write me off as a looney. But BC’s (or something like) have the potential to be the new international gentleman’s agreement for stable value. Sure at the moment they are just fools gold with unstable value…… but could something like it become an agreed store of value that cannot be manipulated by governments/banks, or see more dug up by anyone other than everyone? Wasn’t that the stability gold offered….a store that no one could manipulate coz its rarity gave it stability of value?
Ask yourself this question ‘Whats fundamentally wrong with fiat?’ My answer is that it can no longer be trusted ……. it’s hardly rare if the Fed can print twice as many notes tomorrow for no more cost than the paper its printed on. It can be (and very much is) manipulated/devalued. IF (and that’s a huge IF)…… we could all settle on something that could not be manipulated by anyone, OTHER THAN BY EVERYONE….wouldn’t you prefer to store your value there? Gold? Well they dig more of that stuff up everyday, so given the laws of supply and demand, it can never be perfectly stable. Unless the Fed et al gain control of BC (debatable….. like the internet, its too distributed to be fundamentally controlled by any one body.) the total quantity of BC’s is eternally fixed, so the value could (eventually) be stable against all commodities….but not the $). But it wouldnt be the BC that was unstable against the $. It would be the $ that was unstable against the BC !
The present problem with BC is that everyone is presently thinking back to front. We all look at how many $ we can get for a BC. But who wants $’s that devalue every year?. It only takes a slight change of thinking to adopt BC as THE stable base and the question becomes how many unstable/fluctuating/manipulable $ will it take to buy one stable BC…….the standard just like gold used to be. But in the future we may ask, How much dig-up-able gold will it take to buy one stable BC? Indeed, how long till the manipulated $, and the useless gold has no relevance as currency? I suspect it will only take a tiny twist of fate.
OK, maybe Im a dreamer……but mankind has a way of turning dreams into eventual reality . If mankind has ever proved anything its that: Cometh the need…cometh the solution !
BTW I dont own any BC and wont take a position probably till too late. !!
Any comments about Banro Corporation. its trading AMEX $0.43. It has two main projects. 1st one (Twangiza)started producing Gold in Oct 2011. it produces 100,000 OZ/Year. the Second one (Nayoma ) it has completed construction in 4th quarter this year 2013. Itis going to double the company’s proruction and companies expection will be 240,000 Oz/year in 2014.
Its website is :www.banro.com. both assets located Democratic Republic Of the Congo. I thought its a value that needed to be profited by all of us.
Very informative, thanks for the overview and resources.
I continue to enjoy your column Myron and look forward to your thoughts for 2014. I was particularly grateful for your recommendation of REED which has done very well… so much so that I wonder if you would still recommend it at its current price.
Cheers
Noreen Towns
Mr. Martin,
I havea been following IBC for several weeks and have missed the recent jump in price. Am I too late to get in on some good potential return?
Hey Myron, Jim Skelton here, the Resident Blind Squirrel of Gumshoeland. I’ve just read through your post and the comments here and wanted to add my small voice to the discussion on a couple things.
First, I am continually amazed at the breadth and depth of your knowledge of mining and minerals. Nowhere else have I found such a complete and widespread source of knowledge on these topics. So, Thanks, Myron, for the contribution you make to the site. It’s invaluable in many ways.
I noticed several mentions of one or another specific stocks here that you had profiled during 2013. One is missing, and I don’t understand why. That is Mason Graphite (MGPHF). I can’t recall exactly when it popped up on your screen, but it caught my attention. I bought in sometime in late October or early November at $0.28 p/s. Within about 5 weeks it was trading at $0.98! My position was small, some $2,500 .00 initial investment, but the dang thing was UP ~ 250% from that purchase date. Holy Cow! It became, nearly “overnight” as they say, the best performing stock in one of my portfolios for all of 2013. It began a decline as we approached year end, profit taking I assumed. I bought more at ~$0.75 as it fell, thinking that once the profit taking was over, the rise would restart. Didn’t work out like that, though, as I’m sure you know. When it fell to $0.63 p/s, and the profit on that initial position was now down to some +140%, I sold those shares to lock in the cash. The other lot I kept and still have.
So, THANKS big time for giving me the best I had in ’13. I don’t know for sure what is causing this pullback – any thoughts you may have would be appreciated – but I’m not going to give up and give in on this company and the vast potential I believe it offers when the production gets underway soon.
Last, please keep those comments re fiat currencies, Central Banks, and wht some believe to be hurtling at us in the way of currency collapse courtsey of the Fed and other world Central Bankers. I still don’t have as good anunderstanding of that as I ought – but have some physical metal to provide a little protection if it plays out as you suggest. Educate us, Myron. If that is indeed the future, we ALL had better make accomodation for that eventuality.
Wishing you a prosperous 2014 – good health, good friends, and good investment choices. What more could a fella ask for ?
Sincerely,
The Blind Squirrel