My mind remains confused by the comparisons of all these newsletter performance evaluations that tells us how great their recommended stock performance was when they had average return of say 20% while the DOW gained 30%. What am I missing? Just buy a DOW index fund and make 30% right? Seems to me a newsletter evaluation that was 40% gain over the DOW 30% would be an impressive winner and warrant the praise of being an outstanding newsletter. HELP. I do not understand.
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I think you understand it pretty well! Newsletters and active managers have a devil of a time beating the market anytime, but it’s even harder when the market is in bull mode. I’ve seen a few of those ads that say something like, “see our 2014 picks because our 2013 picks included several 20% winners!”
Relative returns and opportunity costs are important, but so is your perspective — if you buy a newsletter looking for an education, some interesting ideas, and perhaps some amusement, you’ll find many that you probably like … if you buy looking for a portfolio to follow precisely that will beat the market most years, you won’t find many, if any, that please you.