A Biotech Trading Experiment …

by Travis Johnson, Stock Gumshoe | February 25, 2014 2:10 pm

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Source URL: https://www.stockgumshoe.com/2014/02/a-biotech-trading-experiment/


32 responses to “A Biotech Trading Experiment …”

  1. 2sheps says:

    This is an interesting experiment, Travis. I have two specs that I am currently playing. One is Northwest Biotherapeutics, symbol NWBO. I expect it will announce in March results of a Ph II trial on its immunotherapy candidate DCVax Direct for all solid tumors. We might also get in March an update on their Ph III DCVax-L for glioblastoma multiforme, currently underway in both EU and US. The other spec is Prana Biotechnology, and we are expecting also in March results of their Ph II drug candidate for Alzheimer’s. The same drug was also Ph II tested for Parkinson’s Disease with results released earlier this year. NWBO is probably the easier of the two companies, as their trials will either succeed or fail. PRAN is much more difficult to predict, and so much higher in risk, due to the enormous complexity of neurological disorders and diseases we do not fully understand yet. Given the desperation of people suffering from these diseases, the FDA essentially is lowering the bar almost to the point that so long as there is some measurable, appreciable difference, either physiologically or via memory improvement, and absent dangerous side effects, the probability of FDA at least permitting and designing a Ph III clinical trial is probably at or near 50/50. That is said without benefit of the Ph II Alzheimer’s data to be released next month. I think the odds for an FDA go-ahead and design of a Ph III for Huntington’s disease application is better, at about 60/40. Both of these companies are highly, highly controversial, with a high number of shortsellers. If either hits the target, however, its a moonshot. My hopes lie with NWBO to be a winner, because its closer to completion of its trials. PRAN is only a near-term bet on some positive Ph II data in March, sufficient to at least apply for Ph III acquiesence from FDA. If it gets that far, it still has a very, very long road to hoe, and does not have the money to fund such trials, likely meaning either partnering or numerous secondary/new share offerings will be necessary for years. Good luck to both of us!

    Lisa

  2. nortie says:

    I would greatly appreciate your opinion on BIOL, ERB, SNTI. Thank you

  3. enuhfer says:

    Travis, I am feeling good that you too have had your interest raised by discussions. I have found the discussions recently quite fascinating and rich, especially those on biotec and junior miners, and took a small stake on one of Myron’s recommendations.

    I recently was lured into biotech Bluebird by my broker, which has been recommended on Merrill Lynch as a “buy.” I rose to the bait because I could not believe the P/E that I was seeing. Bluebird climbed immediately and keeps right on going. I bit on Sarepta a while back, mainly because I liked what they were focused on curing. It has done well. I also tried a bit of Ontyx after Agora hyped it and insiders were buying–that became a bitter pill and i am glad it was tiny. Would be interested to hear from Gumshoe folkson these as we have some exceptionally knowledgeable readers and columnists–also very generous in sharing that knowledge. Being in this community is well worth the price of the newsletter.

  4. LostOkie says:

    Hey Travis, welcome to Biotech investing. But be warned, it can get into your blood!! I started “dabbling” in Biotech about 5 years ago. With something quite similar to what you’re doing now. And , , Oh My!, , Today it makes up over half my portfolio. Biotech has been REALLY good to me, especially these last three years. As I’m already so way over-weighted in the sector, I didn’t do much looking at your three picks but I did look at their charts. And looks like you’ve had quite a run of luck on one of them right here first rattle out of he box! Let’s hope it continues.
    Best of luck to ya!
    Keith

  5. ocipka says:

    Hi Travis,Pleased to hear you have at last decided to buy the biotech,however being late to the party is never a good idea.In my opinion you need to think a little more outside the box,looking at companies that have not yet been subjected to the masses,.Original thought is required.
    Once you have mastered the technique,profits will come your way,but be patient.

  6. kurtwalter says:

    I just got a trial subscription to the Prohost Biotechnology site. The contributors seem to be knowledgeable, thorough and successful. Now studying their portfolio; their daily newsletter seems to be informative. I got my trial subscription (paid) from stockfocus.com

    Like every sector the biotech sector needs fundamental knowledge. But unlike sectors like REITs or energy where a limited number of variables are usually sufficient to get a basic understanding of a company the biotech sector is as complex as the science of the human body. I hope Prohost will at least give me a basic understanding of what is happening in specific companies.

  7. rhippen says:

    CTSO – Cytosorbents. Sat on a boat load for a couple of years and finally starting to take off.
    Around .30 now.
    I encourage all to check it out.

  8. herbalix says:

    I am long CTSO as well. Got in earlier this year around .20 and like the way things are moving. Great potential.
    I got into BIOTECH in the beginning of this year and must admit it is very addictive. Do not have any expertise, but have been following one of Travis’s great threat from January 8, 2014, called “This Tiny, Unknown Biotech is About to Unleash Its ‘Holy Grail’ Drug”. Learning as I am moving along just as I have been doing the last 2 years i have been hanging around The Big Gummi. Has been an excellent experience and well worth the time and committment.
    Great fun as well. Thanks to All who make this website move the way it does.

  9. herbalix says:

    Also am long GLYC, ISR, BLT.AX (Bnikf) as well as two BIOtech ETF (XBI and FBT). An ETF in the biotech space might be a good place to start.

  10. greenfire67 says:

    Myrons’ little gems are doing quite well. Already up 46% on Nexgen alone. If anyone has not been paying attention to uranium, it’s on a boom right now, especially the Athabaska region.

  11. wrightpj says:

    Travis, Will you be adding Benitech Biopharma (BLT.AX; BNIKF pink sheets), Rexahn Pharmaceuticals (RNN) and Cellceutix (CTIX) to ‘Travis’ Personal Portfolio’ list?

  12. stock_er says:

    Has anyone heard of the Company Nuvelix? It has had great success in the treatment of inoperable Pancreatic cancer and is due to unseat two of the largest companies that are already FDA approved for the cancer treatment. But Nuvelix (NVLX) treatment has little to no side effects and an this Chicago Investment firm has posted this news statement:
    Lincoln Park Capital (LPC) purchased 8 million restricted shares of Nuvilex, Inc. (OTCQB: NVLX) in exchange for an initial $2 million out of what can be viewed as a $27 million “pot of money” to advance the company’s late-phase pancreatic cancer clinical trials. Notice we said restricted shares, that’s right, LPC has put a great deal of its money on the line with a number of built in protections for Nuvilex. But, is this investment really a risk? It appears the Chicago-based firm knows exactly what the future could hold for Nuvilex, and they’re comfortable with paying a premium price to become a long-term investor right along with many others who believe in the small biotechnology firm.
    Much like its investment with Elite Pharmaceuticals in April 2013 that has since seen that company’s price per share rise to highs of over 500%, LPC could benefit greatly from a much higher price tag when Nuvilex enters late-phase clinical trials, completes those trials and applies for approval with the FDA.
    LPC has at least two members of its team, Dr. Michael Beaubaire and Jonathan Cope, who are biotech savvy and have clearly seen the results from two previous independent Phase II clinical trials using the pancreatic cancer treatment that combines Cell-in-a-Box(TM) live-cell encapsulation with the anti-cancer drug ifosfamide – a treatment recently licensed by Nuvilex. Those results indicated that this combination treatment outperformed Eli Lilly’s long-time single-agent treatment for advanced inoperable pancreatic cancer, Gemzar(R) (gemcitabine), and Celgene’s recently approved drug Abraxane (a nanoparticle formulation of the widely used drug Taxol with albumin) in combination with gemcitabine.

    Results from the Cell-in-a-Box-ifosfamide combination in patients with advanced pancreatic cancer included almost a doubling of median survival time from 5.7 months for Gemzar to the 11 months seen with the combination; this compares to the 8.5 months seen with the Abraxane-gemcitabine combination. The results also included a 100% increase in the one-year survival rate as compared to gemcitabine versus a 59% increase for the Abraxane-gemcitabine combination.

    The results obtained with the Cell-in-a-Box-ifosfamide combination are even more noteworthy given that only one-third of the dose of ifosfamide normally used to treat other types of cancer was used in the Phase II pancreatic cancer trials. It is likely that this lower dosage also contributed to the fact that there were no significant side effects from the Cell-in-a-Box-ifosfamide combination. However, there were significant and severe drug-associated toxicities seen with both single-agent Gemzar and with the Abraxane-gemcitabine combination.

    LPC realizes that if these results can be repeated in Nuvilex’s planned late-phase clinical trials, then the FDA approved treatments developed by biopharmaceutical giants Celgene and Eli Lilly will surely be unseated as the “gold standard” treatment for advanced inoperable pancreatic cancer. Keep in mind Eli Lilly has parlayed gemcitabine into more than $10 billion.

    Nuvilex owns the exclusive worldwide rights to use the Cell-in-a-Box technology to develop treatments for any type of cancer and for treatments for diabetes as well. The technology has already shown equally amazing results in animal studies in both breast cancer and diabetes. So, it doesn’t stop at pancreatic cancer for Nuvilex or any investor with a position in the company’s stock, and that includes Lincoln Park Capital.
    It’s trading at about $.40 per share but after the Phase III trials are repeated as the Phase II trials were. Does anyone think this could be a winner? I also discovered that their “cell-in-a-box patent can be used to treat several other diseases as well.
    Any thoughts about this company??????

  13. Kris Prasad says:

    Larry, go the thread that is referenced in the first para of this post by Travis and see post 239 where it is mentioned and then #240 where DR.KSS posits his opinion

  14. Elliot says:

    I’m addicted as well, so far unsuccessful. Long BNIKF

  15. stock_er says:

    Dr.KSS,

    I’m down 5.78% on BNIKF and up 77.80% on NVLK. When is this big explosion going to happen? Nuvilex is getting some pretty big heavy hitters on board lately. Sounds like a paradigm shift is coming not only with pancreatic cancer but several other life threatening diseases as well. Looks like the proverbial gusher will be hear very soon.

    Nuvilex’s announcement this week was filled with a number of monumental headlines, so here are the major takeaways from the news:
    — Translational Drug Development or TD2 will conduct preclinical and
    clinical studies for Nuvilex that seem aimed at the overall management of
    pancreatic cancer (further explanation below)
    — Dr. Daniel Von Hoff who just led NASDAQ’s Celgene to FDA approval for its
    advanced inoperable pancreatic cancer treatment will now play a pivotal
    role in these studies done for Nuvilex at TD2
    — Nuvilex now has access to TD2’s Pancreatic Cancer Research Team (PCRT)
    which consists of 65 Oncology Clinicians, Surgeons and Researchers who
    are member-investigators of the PCRT and who represent 45 clinical
    research sites worldwide
    These are amazing headlines for any biotechnology firm, but for Nuvilex and its investors they represent a blockbuster achievement. The company has attracted world renowned oncologist Dr. Daniel Von Hoff, and that is no small feat given he’s likely extremely selective about the projects he works with in pancreatic cancer, a field he’s basically been writing the textbook in for years.
    But, let’s pay close attention to this week’s press release for what it said and didn’t say. At Stock Market Media Group, a full service investment relations firm focused on research and content development, we surmise the release is actually bigger than first thought. Here’s what the company did say.
    “TD2 will conduct preclinical and clinical studies in support of the development of Nuvilex’s pancreatic cancer and other treatments utilizing Cell-in-a-Box technology.”
    We first thought the company was naming its Contract Research Organization (CRO), but at second glance it doesn’t seem to be saying that at all. If that were the case, why would the company say “in support of the development of Nuvilex’s pancreatic cancer and other treatments”? It is the use of “other treatments” that leads us to believe there is something even bigger going on here.
    Then we took a longer look at Dr. Von Hoff’s quote from the release:
    “The Nuvilex team presents us with a new tool to employ against the symptoms and invasive properties of this very challenging cancer,” said Daniel D. Von Hoff, M.D., Chief Development Officer of TD2. “Our Pancreatic Cancer Research Team (PCRT) colleagues are enthusiastic to begin clinical trials with this approach.”
    From this quote, we don’t see words like survival rate, or median survival time, so we think Dr. Von Hoff and TD2 feel like Nuvilex has a treatment that can do more than first thought from the results of two independent Phase II clinical trials. It appears that when Dr. Von Hoff says “a new tool to employ against the symptoms and invasive properties, ” he may have other ideas that make Nuvilex’s pancreatic cancer treatment an even broader remedy than even Nuvilex or Austrianova imagined.
    What is clear is that Nuvilex is attracting some of the biggest names in cancer treatment development. Nuvilex’s news is as good as it gets for a biotech with hopes of furthering a pancreatic cancer treatment, and investors couldn’t have asked for a more impressive group to support the development of the company’s treatment.
    Dr. Daniel Von Hoff along with his team at TD2 have been shaping the path of cancer drugs at an alarming rate. With Dr. Von Hoff, Nuvilex gets a man who has been called the “voice of pancreatic cancer,” and yes, he’s the very same Dr. Daniel Von Hoff who just led Celgene to FDA approval with its drug Abraxane(R) plus gemcitabine, and the same Dr. Von Hoff who began Eli Lilly’s clinical trials with Gemzar(R) (gemcitabine) both for advanced inoperable pancreatic cancer, and both became the “gold standard” for the disease.
    TD2 is a world-class drug development service, specializing in getting the newest and best oncology treatments to cancer patients as quickly as possible. TD2 calls itself The Precision Oncology CRO(TM) and uses the slogan “Your Drug’s Journey Begins Here.” TD2 has managed and conducted more than 60 early-mid phase clinical studies and has worked with more than 350 biotech and pharmaceutical companies worldwide, so its interest in Nuvilex is great news for the Maryland biotech’s future.
    And, when a leading figure in pancreatic cancer, does in fact, choose to work with Nuvilex, he must feel the company’s treatment can have an impact on the overall management of a disease that he’s played a pivotal role in fighting against for many years now.
    Well see what the next few months bring. I am long on both but feel Nuvilex has the superior technology with their delivering methodology.
    Good luck!

  16. stock_er says:

    I wasn’t trying to put the Doc down but he did say to stay away from Nuvilex because it was a pump and dump stock. Which I don’t think is the case here. I maybe wrong but it’s making money and attracting some pretty important people who is backing it. That alone says something. As I said before, they are both in my portfolio.
    Just my $.02. :o)

  17. stock_er says:

    I was referring about NVLK. Please read my post #15 several posts up from here. I know it’s quite lengthy but covers a lot too. Just thought it was an interesting read that mentioned a lot of renowned doctors not only in the field on pancreatic cancer but diabetes, breast cancer, and branching out the procedure to other debilitating diseases also. I thought it was very interesting and wanted to share.

  18. paulamichelle says:

    Hello this seems to be a better newsletter from what I can tell because of its unique style ,I haves tried a trial of Ernie’s calendar to do biotech trading using the FDA calander as well as gleaning bits of info about ad comes FDA reports stage 3 trials and orphan status but still would love any advice or information that could help me learn how to trade in this area .i also am interested in IPO’s in this and other areas thanks

  19. klnix420 says:

    GT Biopharma Inc, ANY THOUGHTS?

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