Another Hot Australian Biotech: Is Biotron Right for Your Portfolio?
by DrKSSMDPhD | April 5, 2014 12:41 pm
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Source URL: https://www.stockgumshoe.com/2014/04/microblog-another-hot-australian-biotech-is-biotron-right-for-your-portfolio/
Happy Easter to all.
Maybe this is the right time to review an other Aussie Biotech;
Clinuvel Pharma ticker CUV .
Could get very interesting in the next months
Why?
BTW Happy Easter to you too.
Well their lead drug SCENESSE is up for EMEA review in june.
My field is Electronics, so I have a hard time going into specific scientific details.
But as far as I can Judge this is worth taking a closer look at.
Louis: I really am not trying to be rude or difficult…..but this was my point in asking Why? The idea here is that someone introduces us to an interesting new subject by presenting their DD to date (not just by tossing in another ticker into the morass.). Tempted by what you say, others may pick up the baton, dig still deeper and feed that collective data back, so that everyone benefits, espec you. It’s the single benefit that comes from brainstorming. KSS’s field is unfathomable bio, but he has a darned good go at simplifying the science so that lesser mortals can comprehend. Go on, have a bash….you can do it.
Morning Allan, I went to seeking alfa (1st time ever)… kind of interesting site.
I did a search on Regado.. and low and behold thier are people on thier talking about how Dr.Kss of GS has recommended RGDO……..
Am i missing something here…. Why would an irregular member (probably before he or she has even taken a position) go hype it on SA ????
This does not sit well with me …. Dr Kss has shown us Irregulars an oppurtunity thru his hard work and now its hyped over at SA…. Markets not open till after the weekend…
Are u in the UK ????
Hi JZ
Yup….I live in blightey, on a boat in Central London. Bliss!! Im a plumber, so trust me I know all about the minutiae of bio research. Ask away!!
I do have a loooot of medic clients though, inc one of the best heart surgeons in the world. We often talk about his plumbing probs in terms of veins (pipes), heart (pump) blood (water), drugs (rust inhibiting chemicals), valves (er…valves). He reckons we basically do the same job…..except the consequences of getting it wrong are somewhat trickier…..his mistakes just conveniently die….mine sue!! Cant wait to grill him on Regardo. I can almost see his eyebrows lifting ! Then I’ll ask him about some obscure plumbing technique, just to demonstrate which of us is the more alert. I love being a plumber….everyone expects you to be dim. Ha ha….never underestimate an opponent.
I dont do SA either….there is just too much blather, so I never know who to believe.
Its v likely that someone there is also an Irreg. Everyone likes to look smart, and if they are credited with a new find, they get thanked. Ego rush!
However, what I think you meant is that you dont want this info to escape onto the wider internet…..you want a private club (me too!). But its tricky. GS doesnt have ‘private rooms’, but even if it did, it would only take one double agent subscriber and the info would be out there again. Its both the beauty and the beast of the internet……….once information escapes, theirs no getting it back.
Damn you’re funny as hell…. i was born in Slough (the arm pit of England)
Its too bad that any Irregulars would provide info to SA, and ya i understand its not controllable.
I use to live on a boat in Vancouver, similar rainy winter conditions. I found the dampness really affected my bones and joints. Hope you don’t feel joint pain, if so , its time to be a land lubber mate.
Come on Man City ….(or Liverpool, Chelsea)
You were born in Sluff? Then you must love curry. I live 4 miles down the road in Chiswick. (google earth w4 2ug.)
BTW boats are no more damp than the £2mil riverside flats…..unless they’re leaking (which most do). I get zero damp coz I’ve had a new bottom fitted. Now thats some wind breaking transplant!!
Not long till you start getting (mis)quoted somewhere on the net. Prepare for unrequited fame JZ. (and watch what you say if your jobs on the line…..Im just a plumber, so they cant sack me!)
yep ill take care to word my posts appropriately.
Ok i gotta go grab my flight… nice chatting mate… Cheers
Alan “Its v likely that someone there is also an Irreg. Everyone likes to look smart, and if they are credited with a new find, they get thanked. Ego rush!” I was just about to chime in with this as thy why someone would potentially damage their/their group’s investment but you said it far more eloquently than I could. Tak!
JZ, I understand your concern and hope the same. I checked that SA thread, it started 1/8 with 412 followers and 27 comments. The impact is very minimal in this case.
Luv a good curry mate… but i do miss the fish n chips… I travel to London every now and then. Don”t miss the crowds and cues, but do miss the magical energy that”s in the air and unique to London. Chizzy Lad aye, Good on Ya
I thought Dr KSS knew who this sleazeball was regurgitating false info on SA. Perhaps it is time to block him/her?
I dont think KSS knows their username on GS….yet. So block who? Oh, the guilty always return to the scene of their crime………ok frenchy, own up!! 🙂
Dr. KSS is sharing ideas that he thinks are compelling, and explaining the science behind their drugs — we’re not trying to keep deep dark secrets about which stocks are mentioned (if we were, the name of the stock certainly wouldn’t be in the title of this particular piece, which is free for anyone to see), but we would like to keep the text of his work private. I think his words and explanations are valuable and I don’t want to see his full articles copy-and-pasted everywhere, but we can take care of that because it’s illegal. Sharing a stock ticker or mentioning a recommendation certainly isn’t illegal or against any terms of service, and I don’t think it’s really a big deal at all. The value is in an understanding of a company and its prospects, not in the stock ticker.
After all, I spend most of my time revealing “secret” stocks touted by newsletters — they, of course, open themselves up for this by making ridiculous promises in their ad pitches, but the long-term value any newsletter or analyst provides is the education, explanation, monitoring and analysis of stocks, not necessarily the hot stock ticker of the moment.
Yep, makes sense… am i allowed to ask how many Irregular member GS has… you dont have to answer its only my curious and investigative nature… LoL
Sure, you can ask. 🙂
“More than 1,000” is the number we are willing to share.
Well said Travis!
So you’re gonna spend big dosh suing Mrs Jones?? The whole idea of keeping a secret on the internet is laughable. As you say…..Gumshoe was founded on busting supposedly ‘secret ‘ info. So long as its author is intelligent enough to know that their comments may go viral…then that adds to the checks and balances over the quality of what they write. And if it helps to spread the word about what they’re missing by not spending a whole $49 on joining GS, then hopefully we’ll get even more educated comment here….win win.
Theres no hiding place on the net. Publish and be ….creditted.
In addition, many of Dr.KSS’s comments have been posted on HotCopper and sometimes in a not too pleasant manner. But that is what one would expect in such media.
Well said Alan: At the risk of being crucified on Good Friday–I was the one who made a couple posts on the two most recent Regado article threads on SA. I was actually trying to help GumShoe by making a subtle plug that others interested in Regado can read a very good article especially regarding the science of Regado by joining the premium Gumshoe service for $49 (much cheaper than the premium SA fee–of course I didn’t say that or SA would likely have removed the comment).
Neither of these Regado articles are brand new and I don’t have a huge number of people following my comments on SA so I highly doubt very many people are buying thousands of shares based on those comments. I didn’t quote any phrases or sections of the new article either.
As Travis wrote I don’t think it’s a big deal at all and it may bring a handful of new subscribers to the Irregulars. I’m a pretty transparent guy with little to hide. I highly doubt that my comments are market movers–perhaps one day?!
Keep praying David.
Thanks David. Moving markets is a mixed blessing, to be sure, especially if you’re not allowed to profit from those moves or it brings the SEC knocking on your door. As I said, your actions don’t bother me at all — and I appreciate the desire to spread the word on our lovely little community here.
I feel like Ariadne trying to sort out the thread to save her lover–who then dumped her.
A few comments on this wild and woolly thread:
Philip Frost is a mad AND bad stock manipulator rather than a scientist and Opko is his vehicle. He more or less owns it because he buys to support the price. It has just switched to becoming Opko Bio Research, with the same ticker symbol and since it is listed in Israel as well as the USA people are trying to figure out what its target company may be as it raised lots of funding recently.
I ran into a US based IR with a PhD in biochemistry who covers Benitec and Biotime and Antisense, among others. Josh Drumm. His NYC phone is disconnected (why? is biz that bad?) but you can reach him by email at jdrumm@tiberend.com
And in case nobody noticed the reason that Questor rose was that insiders knew there was going to be a complex tax-evading merger into Mallinckrodt, MNK, which we own. It was spun off by Covidien about 16 months ago. Both are Irish. This gives QCOR lower taxes.
to Linnea Due, good to see you again. You are going to have to bite the bullet and go to a broker which offers global trading. They all charge you for it, but my fave is E-trade which only charges if you go to the foreign market; not for the thinly traded American Depositary Receipt or ADR. These exist for almost all the foreign stocks mentioned in this tangle (AKA thread). Happy Easter
Vivian: Thanks for saying outright what I have always felt about Frost.
A physician friend who is likeminded (he has burning contempt as I do for deception, whether it is intentional or self-deception) and I are gathering data to write a stinging rebuke to the medical community regarding Acthar, the ACTH injectable gel that Questcor markets and charges confiscatory highway robbery prices for. We are convinced it does NOTHING prednisone doesn’t do, but does it at 30 times the cost (or more). The studies in support of its use are quite weak, and its advocates are a dubious bunch that also probably believe in magic beans and unicorns.
Dr. KSS and JZ and Travis – I don’t know (sad, as I was an attorney who did practice in the field) if this violates any SEC, etc. rules OR any etiquette, but I have enough faith in Dr. KSS (and anyone with whom he’d work) that I think we’d love a heads-up before any such article is published. Me, I’d do what I personally have never done: SHORT the damn stock. I am loath to damage innocent others [shareholders] as a way to get ahead, but I have SUCH contempt for those who use pseudoscience and knowingly WRONG science to bilk and damage people, that yanking the wind from such sails would give me great satisfaction.
Great explanation Travis and Alan. Too bad those SA lurkers don’t have the courtesy to wait till we back up the truck. Alan, look forward to seeing your plumbers crack in OZ when we are all rich. JZ thank you for all you do for us, and please sign me up for your options seminar. I really look forward to it and I know many of our brethren and sistern do too. BTW, Alan are we all moving to the new Dr KSS thread now?
“Sistern” (lol)? What say ye, grammarians ?
If a “sistern” (sic) is a place to store water then a “brethren” must logically be a place to store hot air. My wife would probably agree with that logic : )
Sorry, a place to store water is a cistern……….. I speak as an English speaking plumber. As for brethren……. dunno. But I already like your wife…. take good care of her or Ill make a take over bid. 🙂
“Brethren” is a perfectly good word. It is one form of plural for “brother” and can be used when referring to a group.
All of us Irregulars are “brethren”. Like it or not! :>)
“Sistern” is a perfectly good word, too. It’s the phonetic pronunciation and spelling of “cistern”. By using “sistern”, you were making sure that we know how to pronounce the word in case we need to read your comment aloud.
Otherwise, us non-plumbers might say “kistern”.
In case it matters – as a pedant’s response – sisTREN IS an acceptable parallel to brethren.
Courtesy is in short supply among the ego centric. Yes, I guess we are all moving….but I will start the usual Regado Eyes and Ears discussion/chat room, so that all consequential research (and ephemera ) can be posted there to keep the new thread less cluttered. (Im a natural optimist)
Well guys, the bus has moved on to the KSS Regado thread. As always, theres a new discussion/chat room so that anything less than earth shattering, can be posted there, to hopefully keep the main thread clutter free. Heeeeeeer’s Jonny:
http://www.stockgumshoe.com/2014/04/microblog-regado-eyes-and-ears-discussionchat-room/
Those of you that have holdings or a interest in Cubist Pharma (CBST) may find this interesting. A recall of one of their drugs, Cubicin:
http://www.dddmag.com/news/2014/04/breaking-news-cubist-recalls-cubicin-lot?et_cid=3891718&et_rid=674872822&type=cta
Looks like it is just a recall of one lot of the drug that might have some particulate matter in it–no biggie but if the market panics, great buying opportunity for CBST.
All QRXPY longs who are locked in before the ADCOMM review, here is an interesting read!
http://seekingalpha.com/article/2147293-hidden-australian-life-sciences-growth-stocks-revealed-scott-power
To James Fernow: about THAT article and Provectus and PV-10: HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA!!!! Not laughing at you, but HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA! I know that author, and HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA!!! I have dealt with that author and HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAAHA! “Surgical Oncology”…..best oxymoron of all time…HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA! Rose Bunghole for cancer….HAHAHAHAHAHAHA! “Nobel Prize” for this work as hinted at….secret insider knowledge imparted by someone who cannot be named, someone speaking in a fierce whisper…….”.pssssst, hey mack, wanna buy a stock tip??? I have it on good authority Moffitt applied for a Nobel Prize for Rose Bengal”…….HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAAHAHAHAHA! You can send in an application for a Nobel Prize, yeah, if you log onto the Close Cover Before Striking Institute website, fill in a form, send a money order along with 10 Cheerios boxtops and complete an application: “My work deserves a Nobel Prize because: (dropdown menu, check all that apply): (1) I always floss, (2) I always open doors for ladies, (3) doggoneit, people like me!, (4) I have never removed any “do not remove this tag” tags from ANY mattresses.”
You can fool all of the people some of the time, but PVCT investors are the subset of those you can fool all of the time. PVCT, ummhmmm, in that biotech mecca Knox veee-ille Tennessee. When your work is so crummy that you have to retrench by floating a couple of posters at AACR with boondoggling putative “immune” mechanisms for how your non-agent (an insecticide) works……seriously, Rose Bengal always behaves JUST THE WAY Provectus wants it to behave…..immune-potentiating here, immune-suppressive there, Cures cancer, cures psoriasis. They can’t decide if it causes necrosis, apoptosis or an immune response….they have put out posters arguing all three, and when conflicting data emerge, they bury the old posters. They’ll feint and hedge and dodge….ANYTHING to keep from starting phase III. People do not seem to understand that getting orphan drug designation does NOT mean the FDA thinks your agent has value, but only that you are chasing something rare, an uncommon condition. This stock is controlled by a tiny cloister of boogie-woogie bubba boys who are all utterly soused on their own Rose Bengal-colored Kool-Aid. When I feel down or lonely and need to laugh, I always log onto the PVCT website and it never fails to bring on the hilarity. To an oncologist, to a bioscience PhD, to a critical thinker, this work is so far off base as to just be dismissible without much comment. I urge you not to be suckered in by this. I truly am not jumping on you, or on anybody, but this is among the most easily debunked plays in biotech.
Doc – I have to add my personal “HA” to this. Along with everything else, you are a pisser.
Hark; Do I perceive an emanation from yon rightly gored & bare gummed rose bengal tiger?/ Yea,,, Tis one both loud & foul,,, and thereby hangs a tail,,,,,,
Frank – re Post 451 —
“The time has come,” the Thinkolator said, “to think of many things.
Of shoes — and ships — and sealing wax — of cabbage heads,” and investing.
“And why the sea is boiling hot,
and whether” PVCT wull rot.
” ‘I weep for [it],’ the Walrus said: ‘I deeply sympathize.’
With sobs and tears he sorted out those of the largest size,
Holding his pocket-handkerchief before his streaming eyes.”
“Beware the Jabberwock, my son,” the markets that tank, the stocks that crash.
“Beware the juju bird, and shun the Frumious” comments brash!
So take your vorpal stock in hand:
Long term manxome gains ye seek–
Then rest by the Tumtum tree,
And at Gumshoe do more than peek.
It’s a loooooong weekend, folks! :>)
Pockets – see what happens to you when you have to stare at all those open tabs on your computer! I’m starting to worry about you.
But on the bright side, if your day job doesn’t work out, you and Frank can recite poems in the park. Just keep your eyes open for the guys with the nets.
KennyG– re Post 451 –
Thanks for keeping tabs on me. I need all the help I can get! :>)
Dr. KSS, thank you! I would not have a way of knowing the illegitimacy of the claims about PV-10 without your post. Much appreciation. I am humbled by how you have gone the extra mile for patients and by how you take the time to share your knowledge.
The more about I think about this, the more I think “Damn! Those shysters sure have their slick-sounding story down to a fine art!”
At the unfortunate expense to the long holders, this looks like a good stock to short! Great insights doc.
Anj; How would one go about shorting PVCT?
The 6month chart looks like a pump & dump curve in Jan 2014 for PVCT . Most gas already left balloon.
Hmm!…..time to take my 30% Bengali profit, methinks.
Finally, here’s some technical good news from the Nasdaq Biotechnology index — The first link below shows a candlestick chart that yesterday gave two favorable signals. There was a clear candlestick “gap up”, and a moving-average “golden cross” after the “death cross” that occurred around the first of March, with a continuing decline of the average since then –until yesterday
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$NBI&listNum=
The next link below shows a P&F chart with a “low-pole” buy signal of rising “x boxes” followed by a bullish rise at 2460, one “box” above the previous column of rising x boxes. However, note the descending trend line colored red. This indicates there may be strong resistance for a rise above 2480. But if that red line is penetrated, this could signal more good news to come.
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.pnf?c=$NBI,P&listNum=
In checking my Biotech account at Fidelity around noon today, I was delighted to note ten strong rises since yesterday that were above 10%, and one miserable decline of 15.6% for MDFZF (Medifocus. Anybody know a reason for this deadly drop, particularly during a strong market-rise?
There were lots of other gainers, but my best rises (in alphabetical order) were for BDSI 11.5%; EXC:DE (Epigenomics) 13.2%; ECYT 11.1%; GNFT:FR (Genfit) 10.1%; ICPT 16.7%; IDRA 18.3%; MRNA 21.3%; OMER 10.1%; OPHT 10.2%; QURE 10.1%; RUNC 14.2%. Generally such strong risers make good buy candidates, at least during the next correction.
I noticed that Benitec had dropped slightly, offering what seemed a buying opportunity, so I bought some more BNIKF at E Trade (as suggested in some previous comments, thank you) instead of from Fidelity, thereby (for once) I escaped that onerous $50 Fidelity foreign-commission overcharge
Dr. KSS — has there been any recent news on Benitec?
Regarding No. 452, as an update to the minimal technical analysis I posted yesterday, please note that the links still work OK and if you use them again today, they will show the latest data on the Nasdaq Biotechnology Index. The upper one will show a new red candlestick indicating a small drop in the index, but the lower P&F chart is more interesting. If you click on the link, you will see that the big rising column of black “x boxes” has reversed into a falling column of red “o boxes”, and currently has recovered slightly from a bottom at 2400 into a slightly improved value of around 2400.
It will not represent a bearish pattern until it falls to around 2330, but hopefully it may reverse upward again, but such a possible upward reversal will not be confirmed unless and until it reaches 2430 (as conditions now stand). However, to reconfirm a bullish pattern the index must reach or exceed 2470, but first it must penetrate an extension of the red downtrend line that (in effect) should now be extended into the box at 2460. So 2460 may become a new hazardous barrier to any further upward recovery. It is unfortunate that the prior rising column did not get to 2470 and at least bump into the red descending trend line, so having reached only 2460, barely one x box above the prior rising column of x boxes. In P&F analysis, this pattern can represent a “bull trap” when the column reverses immediately after only one higher x box.
But today’s falling action may be in sympathy with today’s falling Nasdaq market which coulee be normal after such a rapid recent rise. Some natural consolidation may be in order now.
Just in case I was overly exuberant yesterday about the market in Biotech stocks, I am pasting below a P&F chart for the Nasdaq:
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.pnf?c=%24COMPQ,P
You may notice that the P&F connoisseurs who created this Nasdaq chart have put a bearish red-colored PO (price objective) of 3500 based on the pattern configuration of the chart. This is probably based on the latest down-column of “O’s” showing a dangling “O box” at 3950, and being one box lower than the red “2” (at 4000) shown in the prior down column of O’s. P&F predictions can be wrong, but I bring this up because if Nasdaq were to drop about 15% according to this very bearish PO, the Nasdaq Biotech index will likely fall also.