Thoughts from Myron—Drill Baby Drill
by takeprofits | May 7, 2014 4:00 pm
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Source URL: https://www.stockgumshoe.com/2014/05/microblog-thoughts-from-myron-drill-baby-drill/
Well, here you get some proof that we don’t tell Myron what to write or control the opinions of our columnists 🙂
I wrote some about the ad from Porter that Myron links to here, my reaction to the ad is a bit more skeptical — particularly regarding the timing of the end of the dollar as the globe’s reserve currency, which may come but will likely come with a long whimper, not a bang on July 1 or July 24 or whatever date is predicted. I agree the dollar is likely to lose value over time, as it has for almost 100 years, but predicting the moment that will come, or betting your portfolio on that moment, is not so easy.
Enterprise Group looks interesting, though — haven’t looked at them before. Thanks Myron.
considering that Canada is in a real estate bubble I am negative on any construction co., even if focused on pipelines. And if the USA is really gonna sink into the muck who will
Canada sell all its oil carried by them pipelines to? who will buy the oil the wonderful drilling rig finds if the US dollar is toast.
This article is illogical. Canada is the tail wagged by the Greenback. Sorry but it is true. I am
not a red white and blue booster but I don’t think the Canadian stock market and economy can detach from the Land of the Free and the Home of the Brave.
Actually I think Travis is a lot more skeptical than he lets on, and perhaps justifiably so. I am certainly not stuck on any predicted date, in fact NOBODY can predict the future with absolute certainty. Just because I quoted Porter I do not necessarily endorse Porter’s date, prediction. I am much more interested in the FINANCIAL FACTS that Porter researched, they are not easily disputed and perhaps I give him more credence because of having tracked his record for well over several decades. As far as creditability is concerned I certainly think Porter has a better track record than the Federal Reserve, but I would never stake my investments solely on any one mans crystal ball gazing. That being said, Travis doe’s acknowledge the dollar’s loss of purchasing power, so it is not just “likely” it is inevitable! Under a fractional reserve banking system, interest is never created, it is only made possible through inflation i.e. an ever growing debt pyramid as borrowings at all levels continue to exceed loans paid back. It is a mathematical certainty that new loans MUST also cover the accumulated interest, otherwise there will be defaults until the system self destructs due to a lack of available capital. Two % inflation will destroy a currency in approx. 50 years, and every fiat currency in history eventually returns to its intrinsic value of ZERO. We are about due for a new world reserve currency now that the fiat currency experiment since Nixon closed the gold window in 1971 has been exposed for the colossal failure it is. Forces the FED, can not control will soon force interest rates higher, and the debt pyramid will then rapidly become un-servicable and collapse the whole Ponzi scheme.
http://thecrux.com/is-the-gold-bull-market-over-read-this-and-decide-for-yourself/
Vivian: Your question is certainly justified, but you have opened a can of worms which is not that difficult to answer. I have observed over the years that trends in the U.S. usually show up in Canada 2-3 years later. In Canada, A Real Estate Bubble is only in the beginning stages of being acknowledged to a very limited degree so far. While the U.S. is indeed Canada’s biggest customer, we do have alternatives. Perhaps you are not aware that in the past year China has invested BILLIONS in Canadian oil sands projects, the very underpinnings of which will be the support for pipeline construction to take our crude to the West Coast (and possibly the east coast) for export to China since Obama apparently keeps stalling the Keystone Pipeline.
Counterpoint, we have lots of alternatives in the field of energy, and yes we can detach ourselves from the anemic greenback and I would say the U.S. is long past being the “Land of the Free” it is now closer to a budding dictatorship. See how many years it takes until you have price controls, seizures of Retirement Savings, and /or forced investments in Myra’s mismanaged by government, martial law and other loss of traditional freedoms.
Yes we in Canada will suffer along with you in time, but once the U.S. dollar declines as the world learns the U.S. has traded away its wealth, (gold in Fort Knox) the whole world economy will be disrupted and visionary’s like Porter Stansberry, Mike Maloney, Jeff Updyke, Simon Black, Jim Sinclair, and dozens of other Billionaires in countries all around the world will be vindicated regardless,of the precise timing with which things unravel.
Martin; I must agree with you in most respects. Economists do not practice science,,,,mathematicians do. Just as it is mathematically impossible to borrow your way out of debt,,continuing to create money out of nothing is bound to fail. Not only are the presses running but every time you use a credit card or take out a bank loan money is created in our fiat system. That can only deflate the value of existing money until it approaches zero at which point it will collapse. As to dictatorship I think we more have a tyranny by the bureaucracy which tends to stifle initiative as things grind to a halt.
fa
Speaking purely to the mathematics, It is definitely NOT impossible to borrow your way out of debt. No judgement — just math.
Brad; I would love to see your proof. Please instruct us. fa
Its quite simple. One way would be to borrow money to start a business. If you were successful you could pay off your debts and maybe even more. A super simple way would be if you owed $1000. Borrow 1000 go to the casino, put 1000 on black. You stand a 47% chance of winning 1000, which you could pay back both debts and be debt free. You can make up your own mind as to whether these are intelligent choices, but there is no doubt it is mathematically possible.
Brad; In both cases you cite, borrowing does not reduce debt,,,you are depending on some other thing which may or may not happen. The borrowing has zero to do with it. I would advise you to ask someone you trust to explain how reality works. Perhaps the loan officer where you bank. definitely do not ask whomever taught you such nonsense for they must have been idiots.
I may not have stated my position clearly enough Brad, I was speaking in reference to our monetary system in total. I agree that under certain temporary & extraordinary circumstances an individual could theoretically borrow his way out of debt, but not society as a whole, as our whole economy is debt based, see additional explanation further down.
First you want to talk math . Then you want to talk reality. Please make up your mind.
You want your math to fit into your model of reality. Good luck with that!
Hey Frank way back when did you ever hear of the math term “VARIABLE”? Look it up!
PS The people who taught me such “nonsense” were excellent mathematicians!
Myron and or others: any thoughts on a small African drilling company called Geodrill? It appears to be well positioned and well managed.
Have heard the name. but have not looked at it seriously. Every column seems to generate inquiries about stocks that are competitors to ones that I profile. Here is the lates press rease from Energold. http://www.energold.com/s/NewsReleases.asp?ReportID=652928&_Type=News-Releases&_Title=Energold-Drilling-to-Hold-First-Quarter-2014-Results-Conference-Call-on-May…
Myron, or others, have you taken a look at Petromanas. They have what looks like a very interesting play in Albania and have Shell as their drilling partner. But the company is very, very small and has a boat load of shares outstanding, and lots of warrants and options as well. Any thoughts?
I own Bankers Petroleum with assets in Albania which I have owned years ago and have bought it again over a year ago for a second run. Will take a look at Petromanas.
Myron, just wanted to congratulate you again on the Balmoral recommendation, it’s been swimming against the current of lower gold prices for a while now. I suppose the news the other day was a big reason why.
Balmoral remains one of my top picks among the explorer class and I never doubted that when the price was in the .30,s They have excellent land holdings and are well financed and mgmt. has a successful background of previous success which is why I seek out top notch management teams on which to place my investment bets. Maybe I am making a mistake by not shouting from the rooftops as the big boys in the business do when they have picks that tripled in a year. I can only emphasize that my specialty is “picking them early” while they are still volatile, but I can see the long term potential. Some of the stocks I have profiled have the potential to double or a triple in a day when the market turns rational again.
I have no thoughts on this particular recommendation, but when it comes to Porter Stansberry, I find him intolerable beyond belief (and I have previously subscribed to a number of his newsletters). Where I HAVE found him useful is in being a contrarian to his advice, i.e. I buy whatever he’s against and sell (or stay away from) whatever he is pitching. He certainly has a right to pitch whatever he likes, but I much prefer realistic optimism to his doomsday brand of pessimism.
As for the borrowing yourself out of debt question, while I am opposed in general to debt, I have been successful borrowing on margin at 3% and investing in solid dividend stocks paying from 5% to as much as 15% (mlp’s, reit’s, etc.) However, I never borrow more than I can afford to lose if the market takes a Stansberry dump.
Maybe I am misinterpreting what you are saying Cecil, but that has certainly not been my experience over the past decades I have been reading Porter, but in case any other subscribers are associating your opening remark with my stock picks, I assure you the quotes from Porters column have absolutely nothing to do with either of them. I realize Porter is a controversial figure, viewed by some as you put it, as a “doomsday brand of pessimism” others may regard him as simply being a “realist” along with dozens of other highly successful and wealthy people who “see the hand writing on the wall” in respect to a debt burdened economy. As I previously wrote, others may not be as specific (rightly so) on particular dates, but still see the same warning signs. I too am “generally opposed to debt” but under our present system one literally has at best, little choice except to borrow for some things, (car, house prime examples) and since our currency or medium of exchange is “literally borrowed into existence as debt” it speaks to your comment on borrowing your way out of debt. Smart individuals may temporarily swim against the tide but collectively it is impossible because of a simple fact 99% of people have probably never given a thought. Since our “counterfeit fiat money” is borrowed into existence as DEBT we can never under the fractional reserve banking system ever get out of debt. The debt pyramid MUST of necessity continue to grow because only the principle of a loan is ever created, never the interest, so the only way sufficient currency remains in circulation to allow an economy to function is if it is replaced by new borrowing that not only REPLACES loans paid back, but also the accumulated interest. How do you think the U.S. ended up $17 TRILLION in debt, and how do you think it can ever be paid back? When has the nation ever had a balanced budget let alone begun paying back what for the average taxpayer is a burden of unfathomable debt. The idea that everybody can somehow through the “magic of compounding” be a net recipient of interest is a total illusion. Simple mathematics should tell you that, WHO PAYS the interest if everybody is receiving it? People in general do not realize it, but the reality is they are participating in the biggest and cleverest Ponzi scheme ever devised by man, and they all come to an END EVENTUALLY central banking just hasn’t quite hit the wall YET! My question to you Cecil is this, what is the most realistic approach, acknowledging the obvious problems we face and doing everything possible to prepare for what is surely staring us in the face and face being labelled a pessimist, or should we “whistle past the graveyard” and pretend we will never die, and be known for our optimism by denying the obvious. Out of curiosity, how do you think Porter built the fastest growing and most successful newsletter publishing Co. in the business if he is as bad as you make him out to be? He may have made some bad picks, eventually everybody does, but didn’t you make the final decision to buy what he was suggesting.
Well said, and……one pushes people through fear or greed. Hence Porter works on the fear of government and missing out on opportunities. Thats why we love gumshoe…..just info!
I bought Petromanis at .13, sold too early I think?
My thoughts on our economic and financial system. There is nothing wrong that a very conservative interpetation of the Judeo-Christian Tenth Commandant wouldn’t solve.
Considering China’s belligerence of late are there any stocks you recommend curtail exports of metals again?
The two that I have are FMETF, and AVCVF.
Hi MYRON—i was wondering is i could have your thoughts on LMRMF. Would you consider this price a good entry point? What are your thoughts on AVCVF> Thank You–William
Sorry for the delay Wm. Since I rarely buy over the counter I do not recognize OTC stock symbols and rarely have the time to look them up, NAMING companies will get a faster response. A small stake under .05 is a reasonable speculation. Having just raised over $5.M. recently I am prepared to give them another 6 months to a year to see what they do with that money. They have excellent connections in the industry and talented management and their projects are worth a few hundred dollar speculation if you have the patience.
American Vanadium likewise qualifies as a “critical and specialty metal” that has been holding a channel between. 55 – .58 and has been as high as .72 and patient investors should do well buying near the bottom of its range, but again, be prepared to hold 6 mths. to a year.
Hi MYRON—i was wondering if———-correcting my mistake. HAPPY ANNIVERSARY
Hi Myron: I am wondering if you or someone would know the answer for this question.
I bought 5 Augusta #AZC Sept 14 $2.50 Call options a while back when you wrote about them along with some other great picks. It was back when Hud bay had made an offer which they ignored.
Now with the offer accepted my holdings finally are showing green by about $100.
The merger is set to take place on Thursday and I cannot seem to get an answer on what would happen to my options. My broker could not find anything that clearly stated one way or another if they would convert to Hud Bay or become non-negotiable. My question is in your opinion would I be better to sell the call options to close for a profit or exercise my and take the AZC shares and let them convert hoping the Hud Bay goes up?
Thank you for any light you can shed.
Tom
As you know, I am not allowed to give personal financial advice. In my experience and observation I can only say that in case of takeovers, options usually get adjusted to match the surviving companies shares. So happens I was looking at Augusta to-day as a possible recommendation and now I guess I will have to did a little deeper to determine whether I would buy Hudbay which is also involved with another stock I profiled (VMS Ventures).
They seem to be a stable , well run company with adequate finances focussed on copper, but I have not yet done sufficient research to make a judgement on whether I would want to own the company at to-days prices, good luck making that decision in your personal circumstances. You can never go wrong taking a profit, but the market reaction can vary depending on how the transaction is viewed in terms of fairness, frequently the acquired companies stock price goes up if investors think the offer is fair and sometimes the acquiring company gets punished if investors think they are paying too much. I suggest watching the markets stock price reaction for clues to possible future trend.
Thank you Myron: I appreciate your prompt response. The thing I cannot seem to get an answer to is if I hold the option through the merger if the calls will automatically convert to Hud Bay at the offer price. I put a call in to Hud Bay and they said they would get back to me with the answer. My broker didn’t know TDA. AS it stands right now it seems taking the profit would be the most prudent thing to do. I can always purchase Hud Bay I suppose when and if I choose.
Thanks you
Tom