Gold vs Dollar. Edelson vs Dent

By freejon, June 9, 2014

Right now I am receiving promotions from two sources.
One is Larry Edelson (via Weiss) who claims a good track record in forecasting gold and precious metal movements. He says that the bottom for Gold is fast approaching and that the coming conditions will send it to $5000 in three years, citing ”War cycles” that will run until 2020 as the core reason.
The other is Harry Dent, king of the demographics, who shows all the ”bubble” graphs, a description which also applies to the shape of gold prices. He makes a strong economic argument that we are about to experience major deflation. While others expect the money-printing to eventually trigger inflation and a dollar collapse, Dent says that we would be in deflation if it were not for QE and that the end of QE will see the start of massive deflation. He also says that the dollar will not collapse because all other major countries have also done QE, so there is a ”race to devalue” in place which the dollar will survive, relative to other countries. He sees a gold price that will be half or less, in the same timeframe that Edelson says will be triple.
They can’t both be right- can they?

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7 Comments on " Gold vs Dollar. Edelson vs Dent"

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John Mauldin has coined the phrase muddle through recovery. What is going to happen is that they are both wrong. Gold is a commodity that costs about $800 per ounce to get out of the ground. At $1200-$1300 per ounce numerous new mines are opening. So as the new mines start operations the price is going to drop until some of the mines close. I see gold as being stuck trading between $2000 to $1000 per ounce for the foreseeable future. When it approaches the low end buy the junior miners. When it approaches the high end sell the junior… Read more »
Bob W
Actually most gold miners are struggling to make a profit with gold at $1300, when you count all the costs. That’s why their stock prices are in the toilet. However, with gold stocks above ground vastly exceeding the quantity mined each year (a situation very different from base metals) new gold mined could stay at low levels for a long time without driving the price up — most demand is met by moving gold from one bin in a vault to another. Nobody has a crystal ball for gold prices, although $5000 in three years sounds like a good prediction… Read more »
I partially agree and disagree with above two comments. Mining costs for most gold mines are near or at current gold prices. Silver costs are more variable among different minies but most silver mines are multi ore mines, and lower resource prices of other minerals currently drag down profits – a situation unlikely to change near term without explosive world growth – don’t see it. The mining industry has been forced by shareholders to an all-in-costs accounting approach including development and overhead, and some mines are below profit breakpoint. There are three impediments to sharply higher gold prices in the… Read more »

It was Samuel Goldwyn, head of Goldwyn Studios, formerly of MGM, who said, “Include me out,”

Rick M
First of all Shoe, I am really p#ss#d. I wrote a relatively length comment, and it was all deleted when I clicked on the CLICK HERE IF YOU WANT TO SUBSCRIBE TO THIS THREAD. So, this is the abbreviate version. Larry Edelson couldn’t predict himself out of a paper bag. I just got his latest promo, and on p1 it says the next dark chapter will NOT be triggered by hyperinflation or a bond market collapse, yet on p6, he states, “Plus the Feds wild money printing has created a veritable powder keg of inflationary pressures. The slightest spark could… Read more »

Good point at the end. Why this strange number (310 days moving average) and what charting site do you use for gold? Thanks.

robert roby

just buy great dividend paying stocks and see you in 25 years when you are rich.