Biotech Traders threadMany of the comments on the main bio threads are about day to day trading activity. This thread has been created so as to cut down the quantity of posts on the main bio threads, plus give traders their own space to bat stuff around. There is no thread leader as the thoughts are momentary. So it works like a ticker tape as do the SP’s.
Enjoy
PS Anyone use Candlesticks?
This is a discussion topic or guest posting submitted by a Stock Gumshoe reader. The content has not been edited or reviewed by Stock Gumshoe, and any opinions expressed are those of the author alone.
$PPHM get in! Get ready to take a ride…
Wall Street’s Current Play: ‘Immunotherapy Of Cancer’ $PPHM
http://www.seekingalpha.com/article/2953756
I know it’s not the most current, just trying to bring some positive attention to a Diamond in the rough!
Long $PPHM
$PPHM-Tim Hall: From the yellow tab: am not feeling much when I look at $PPHM….Last year they were claiming this was The Definitive Means to prevent tumor associated angiogenesis. Now they are trying to reinvent it 2/27/15 Best-Ben
Change that TAB color!
$TROV, NVIV, PPHM all posted in the calender when commented on or news broke…check it out! Best2ALL!-Benjamin
ATNM Compelling clinical results enable pivotal Phase III trial.
Iomab-B TheRealDeal Logan-B is the Home Run Drug!!!
$ATNM Potentially faster pathway to a bone marrow transplant with fewer side effects
$ATNM Iomab-B – Blockbuster therapy potential for BMT conditioning….
U Da Man!!!
That was a typo… Let me repeat… Lomab-B is the Home Run Drug!!! Don’t ever forget it!
Let me repeat, Iomab contains iodine, with an uppercase “i”. Do not confuse iI with lL.
$ATNM Actinium Pharmaceuticals, Inc. featured in the European Bio Review’s Winter 2015 Issue http://stks.co/h28z2 #ATNM Very Promising Data!
Courtesy of the great one…. and no I don’t mean Gretzky!
Dr Kaushik Dave is Da Mann Too!!!
Long $ATNM don’t miss the boat, she’s about to leave for a voyage far beneath the imaginable!? How’s that?
Long $ATNM
Lomab-B is the Home Run Drug… that Dr. KSS told us all about!
That’s all you need to remember!
Cheers to the Winners!
Pump up the Volum ! , KennG and AllenB!
http://seekingalpha.com/article/3075206-actinium-pharmaceuticals-an-undervalued-biotech-revolutionizing-aml-treatment
Long $$$ATNM
$ATNM-Tim Hall, This is NOT SA. This is the BEST biotech investment site on the internet! Long stockgumshoe.com and the Bio-team! Best2ALL!-Benjamin
CANDLESTICKS…Benny: I like to use them on targets I like for fundamental reasons.
What’s on your mind ?
Id love to tell you whats on my mind, but Id get too much hate mail.
I use candlesticks too + bollinger bands, 2 x moving avgs, RSI, volume and prayer. But looking at my portfolio, Someone isnt listening !
Back to herding cats, Alan? 🙂 I so agree that the main thread should be investment focused, but most of us on the team can’t resist friendly banter wherever the inspiration strikes. I need organization somewhere, so I think I may try my idea of chronological listings of pertinent info organized separately by each ticker on a locked Google doc, similar to what HiPockets has for the KSS DA Man sheet. Will probably try in MS word, if people can’t read it, will publish it to pdf. There is so much history on these threads, I’m just dying to organize it, but can’t imagine doing all of that on a blog where someone that has been away for a couple of weeks just drops another stray comment in at the bottom. Your organizing efforts are appreciated… I will attempt to post comments in the preferred place.
DLH-Organization and teamwork USING the TOOLS / APPS provided by GOOGLE please see next post…Let’ WORK TOGETHER!…40+ Highly Intelligent BRAINS are BEST synergized by becoming ONE, a TEAM and therby reap SERENDIPITY! Best2ALL!-Benjamin
What a great idea !
Sounds good. If anyone doesnt have MS Word, you can download Libre Office version. It does 99% and its FREE ! (love that word)
https://www.libreoffice.org/download/libreoffice-fresh/
sogiam says: April 18, 2015 at 10:46 am
With the calender set up, Hi pocket’s KSS DA MAN spread and opposeablethumbs BIOTECH articles being ALL google apps and google finance and google docs, It seems to me that ALL these tools should FLOW as ONE…I personally do not have the knowledge required to make it FLOW…do you or Hi Pockets or Opposeablethumb or any one that WE know how to JOIN these tools/apps? Best-Ben
I like how HiPockets linked to the KSS articles from the KSS DA MAN sheet. This is a perfect high level summary, with links to the original an followup sentiment posts by the Dr.
Ben, your upcoming events calendar is perfect for looking into the future, so when events approach we can begin impact discussions on the threads.
For capturing history, to allow someone do a chronological read from beginning to present of initial sentiment, changes in sentiment, how the events on the calendar impacted shares, etc.. I am offering to do a chronological archive for each KSS stock. I totally agree with you, Ben that the tools need to integrate and flow. What if HiPockets adds another column to the google doc archive for that stock to the right of the column containing the KSS comments. It might take a while for me to compile all of them, but I think it would be a great cradle-to-grave read for each stock as it gets recommended to when it ultimately gets dumped or absorbed by BigPharma. I can publish them as I go and give the link to HiPockets for his sheet as soon as I finish each one. What I don’t know yet, but am eager to learn, is the Google docs environment that you guys have tapped into.
In summary, I think the DA MAN sheet is the perfect high-level doc to jump off to the rest of the docs with the detail. Each of us takes a custodian role of one area, and a contributor role to the other tools.
DLH-The FUTURE is what is IMPORTANT. We have to PLAY with the cards dealt US. We all have a pretty FIRM grip on the PAST. AACR is THIS coming week with many CATALYST. Your input in providing a chronological PAST is excellent however With AACR this WEEK I feel our FOCUS should be in the IMMEDIATE, short-term, mid-term and long-term FUTURE!!! Best2ALL!-Benjamin
Thank you Ben, I agree and appreciate your assessment. I will help analyze presentations and AACR releases as best I can.
When I did a lot of spread sheet work on multiple pages in a workbook, I used an excel function that could take cells on one sheet and automatically transfer he contents to
a designated spot on another sheet. It’s been a while since I worked on stuff like that but
type of function would help…you enter or update data on a master and the data is automatically updated onto the other sheets in the workbook.
I wonder if Doc still sees $MEIP doing well in the months and years ahead.
Anybody have thoughts on $MEIP and it’s pipeline?
As I recall, the $MEIP trial results were misunderstood by analysts, and the Doc felt their drug was best used on secondary (relapse?) applications, not on first treatments. I don’t have that post readily accessible. I will look for it this evening as I have more time and report back. I believe even the CEO was having trouble straightening out the misunderstandings…
$MEIP- DLH your recollection is perfect…Now may WE Focus on AACR and the immediate future! I am more than willing to release custodial duty of OUR SGS BIO 2015 calender to Whomever is Best able to JOIN it using the TOOLS available. Best-Ben
Ben, I just accessed our calendar and tried to update the AACR event with the Twitter # and the web url for the event. I can obviously see them on my view of the calendar, can you please confirm that I updated the calendar in a manner that everyone can now see the twitter and web links? Thanks
YDLH- You changed the event…I was Notified by google and Have since INPUT in RED on the 24th for ALL to SEE “INPUT HERE-Do NOT FEAR” from 10-1 p.m. Thanks – Ben
Yeah!!! we’re getting somewhere 🙂 Lawrence also updated an event this a.m. …It works!!!
Ryan, here was the Doc’s last comment on $MEIP:
http://www.stockgumshoe.com/2015/03/the-great-gallic-foie-gras-hack/#comment-4415014
Sadly, he only posted three more replies after that one.
Excellent Ben. A suggestion – the windows interface I see has both a title line and a detail block down lower for each event when I open it. Would it make sense to limit the title block to just event dates and time, but place longer event descriptions, links to web pages or links blog comments in the detail block? Otherwise the singe title line requires careful scrolling to read or copy a link.
DLH- If you click on (open) the event you can see much detail…try it 😉
Hi Ben…
I’ve closed the Kssless World Thread, the Biotech by Hendrixnuzzles thread is pretty quiet, and I’ve made the first moves into my Kss-long segregated account. Also my theological ramblings with Sharon Schreiner are nearly at an end. So I have some free time on my hands.
Accordingly, if there is something I can do to help you and HiPockets, please advise.
I can be a little backward on stuff but once I get the hang of it I won’t be too much trouble.
One thing I’d like to throw out for discussion…I’d like to get some ideas on how I can hedge my growing biotech position. It has sort of zoomed up to a pretty big allocation, which is great as long as biotech is the number one sector. But if there is a downdraft or general market correction, we will all be badly injured.
I think a lot of the value in biotech is in sentiment. And we know from Dr Kss that many of these companies have no future. So when and if sentiment turns against stocks in general or biotech in particular, there will be a lot of nasty surprises. I think the Celladon failure gave a taste of this…everything cruising along nicely, then ZAP ! …80% decline.
Or look at AKAO tthe last few weeks…long term a potential homerun, but in the meantime a bad decline because nothing is going to happen for a while and there’s a shelf dilution. So here’s a GOOD company with GOOD prospects dropping by half in a matter of a few weeks.
This could happen to a lot of stocks that have with burn rates instead of earnings and
good but unapproved science instead of dividends. The worst thing is that sentiment being emotional, the price action will be overly negative and is likely to overshoot fair value to the downside if things get ugly.
Open to ideas.
HN: I wrote this on another thread but it applies.
As I saw it, there are several problems to be overcome with investing.
Problem 1/ You need to limit your investments to those quality companies who have a fighting chance of success. You WONT do better than following KSS’s advice…..period.
Problem 2/ Timing. You will never get in at the lowest ever price 100% of the time. The tactic I follow at least mitigates the problem….buy in and set a trailing stop; buy back when its fallen further than the previous stop, if you still believe. This means you get to own the same amount of that ‘must have’ for less than you were once prepared to pay. Eventually it will bottom and you’ll own it somewhere around that bottom; and when it does pop, you get all your losses back + a nice little bonus.
Alternatively, place a stop limit buy order at the price you stopped out at, that way youll get back in at the same price when and if it ever it recovers, Meanwhile your out if it doesnt recover. Both methods buy you thinking DD time at least.
Problem 3/ BOBS (bugger off binary stox) Far less than 50% of trials are successful, so the odds of an avg win rate on binaries is negative. Better to sell just b4 the decision is announced. Yes, youll be miffed if its a winner, but you can buy back after the pop for the steady ride north as the company starts to see real profits and the institutions load up. Natch youll be pleased as punch if the stock crashes without you still being on board. Then you can get in (if youre mad enough after some DD) at a v low price and cross your fingers.
Problem 4/ When to cash in a profit…’OMG Im sure this is going much higher…..clunk ! The problem is centred in human G R E E D. Im still working on disciplining myself with this one, but candlestix/technicals seem to help. So does never allowing yourself to get married to a stock……dont ever think of it as stock; its money youre playing with and it aint ‘easy’ money to get back, thats for sure. If anyone is investing to help advance the science coz their auntie suffers…far better to make a donation. Profits have to be repaid eventually, so youll be profiting at aunties eventual cost for treatment. So, take a good profit when it presents itself; set a stink bid limit buy for another day and say au revoir Baby. Never look back at what mighta/coulda/shoulda been. Its over….forget it….move on….plenty more fish in the ocean.
Im sure there are other ways to hedge…….options, gold, hard assets etc. I look forward to others advice on those. But I think my strategy can still be incorporated.
Excellent advice. I’m working on my self-discipline and you outline a very workable strategy here. Thank you, Benny 🙂
Hi Benny,
I am trying to formulate a good strategy for hedging within the biotech area.
I do have considerable positions in areas outside biotech, but I think with the huge
role of sentiment and the leading position of the biotech sector in the investment universe, some direct “self insurance” within the sector could be useful.
One reason I am concerned is the gross capitalization of companies that do not cut the mustard, compared to the narrow universe of stocks felt to be worthy of investment consideration by Qualified Opinion. Think what would happen if the marginal small and midcaps suddenly reverted to cash value, like what happened to Celladon. Another concern would be the loss of market cap if the big pharma guys were suddenly valued for revenue and dividends in ratios more in line with ordinary stocks in another sectors.
When Doc was out and we looked at ETFs, I was really shocked at the mindless
methodology of these funds, which are proliferating like crazy all over the world.
The capital in market cap weighted funds is mind-boggling.
This in my opinion already is a “bubble” situation, although I do not think it will
implode on its own, outside of and independently a wider collapse in the financial markets.
Benny –
I sincerely don’t want to throw a wrench into the works, but do have something I would like you to consider. I would very much like to know how “the board” (You, Sogiam, Arch 1, Hi Pockets, Henrinuzzles, Frenchy, Thomas Kelley) go about your/their research on a typical day. That’s presuming there is a typical day.
jk
Dear John,
Flattered that you would consider me “on the Board”, I am fairly new to this site.
I am simply a retired guy who found a lot worthwhile on this site and wanted to reciprocate if possible. A wonderful aspect of this community is that it is voluntary, no one has to do anything they are not inclined to.
To answer your question…when Dr Kss stopped his amazing contributions, thankfully for only a short time, I had just started following him and had initiated some positions in the sector. His absence was very distressing and became an unproductive topic of discussion. His thread quickly degenerated into something that did not serve the investment purposes of the community, and I basically volunteered as a moderator
for continuing the discussions of his ideas. I did not think it was respectful or appropriate to continue the discussion on Doc’s thread, so two threads were created,
Biotech in a Kss-less World, for continuing discussion of Doc’s ideas, and Biotech by Hendrixnuzzles, for discussion of new ideas not mentioned by Doc.
During that month-long period or so, I spent considerable time on the site and in related activities like trying to educate myself and doing research on other sectors of interest to me. It is not an exaggeration to say it was close to a full-time pastime.
During that period, about a month or so, I came to the belated realization
that several members had previously made greater contributions to the readership,
and that their work had created many useful tools for the investment education and
due diligence of anyone interested. Primarily I am referring to HiPockets, Ben, Archuno Benny Hill the Plumber. I do not know the amount of time and energy they devote to this, but it seems considerable. They can speak for themselves.
It was a tremendous relief when Doc returned, not only for our selfish reasons but because there was concern about his well-being.
As he has resumed taking all questions and comments on his own deservedly popular thread , there is no need of amateur moderation from someone like myself.
So I am following along and doing my own research and due diligence, but since Return of the Doc the demands on my time are considerably reduced. The non-Kss bio threads are a desolate and barren wasteland, rivalling only the commodity threads for lack of reader interest.
Hendrixnuzzles –
Thank you for the reply. I am anything but a skilled investor. I search for valid information, and that’s how I came to SG a few years ago; before Dr. KSS. I enjoy good writing and information, and you get both at SG. I also read with great interest the blogs, which Includes what I call The Clubhouse. Exceptionally interesting! I retired 16 years ago, and got into the market because my wife, who is still working, needed to rollover her 401k to an IRA about 5 years ago. I sputtered along, and did fairly well, but the huge jump came after Dr. KSS.
I e-mailed you about helping with your biotech page. I thought it to be a gigantic project, and thought I might be able to help. I felt a sense of relief when Dr, KSS returned safe and sound,
By the way, your comments on biotech ETFs couldn’t be closer to the truth, in my IMHO. I bought one, followed it for a while and found that I was doing much better than the ETF, I thought this would be the case as I cross checked the stocks with my portfolio (almost all KSS recommended), and there was no comparison in gained value. I sold the ETF last week.
Lastly, which is about SG in general. I just finished reading the Notes From Omaha Travis sent out this evening. He is a terrific writer, and in the first Omaha message he wrote about a Chinese company/stock in the meat packing business – WGHPY. Finding information has been a daunting task so far, but I have interest in this stock. Any suggestions?
jk
The annual reports are on PDF on their website.
Hi John,
I’ve been watching WGHPY…it’s very thinly traded but jumped up to the $ 15 range this week. I like their business and am thinking of taking a small position. Any pros or cons you can see ?
OPTIONS TO CUT RISK IN BIOTECH One of my problems in biotech has been selection of entry points. Because the stocks are highly volatile it can be difficult to select entry prices.
To help reduce the risk of poor entries I have started a few positions with buy/writes,
going long the stock but simultaneously selling a call on it. In the biotech sector this seems worthwhile since the option premiums are very high.
On ESPR last month, I went long at $ 100 but sold a May 15 call for $ 7.50. So I have
$ 7.50 insurance in my pocket. If the stock gets called away at $ 100, I make a $ 7.50 profit in one month. If the stock craters, I’m in at $ 92.50 instead of $ 100. If it stays at
$ 100, I’ve earned $ 7.50.
I would also suggest that selling cash covered puts might be a good way to enter,
but it is difficult to let the cash lie around instead of going long. So for me the buy/write
is more suitable.
Dear John,
I also saw Travis’ article on WH Products and have interest in it. I have been looking for a way to invest in food and think this play offers a lot, although I’m unfamiliar with the financials of this type of company so I’m a little lost at evaluating them.
The key things for me, based on what Travis related, are that they are the largest player in China for an important food category. So I like the macro picture…a billion and a half Chinese that are getting wealthier and will be increasing consumption.
Closer to home…I live in North Carolina, and well took note when they bought Smithfield.
As far as more due diligence, I looked at the reports and the numbers make my eyes glaze over also. The stock price action is strong, though volume is a little thin. There’s going to be growth in their business for sure. Sales hit $22 billion a year. Profits were 4-5% on net income of 7-8%. Whether this is good for the industry…I don’t know. Just seems to me that it’s a pretty good situation.
Another aspect that I think is worth noting is that there seems to be a movement by the Chinese government to improve food quality and regulation of production health standards. This will be good for the larger producers, and one aspect of WH group’s acquisition is that they were very explicit about maintaining Smithfields quality control in their operations. I don ‘t think this is a coincidence.
For me, that’s enough to take a bite of pork dumpling. I suppose one could do more due diligence, but I am satisfied and will pay more attention to the stock price than digging deeper into the financials.
To John King re #12: I will echo Hendrixnuzzles by saying that I am flattered that you would consider me “on the Board” as all I do, it seems, is to post a few posts in a drive-by fashion mostly due to my work…
As far as the information I provide, it is mostly derived through paid newsletter subscriptions which is the antithesis of what we strive to do here at SGS…lol! But also subscribe to the company’s website which I own stock in along with typing their tickers at SA, Yahoo and or Google for stock alerts etc…
I do not have time for sleuthing (those titles belong to Glenn Newberry and Sogiam) which are great at it! Hope this helps.
John,
Well I to am humbled to be a part of the “board”. I view myself as an investor. Been investing in Biotechs for about the last 15 years. For 14 of those I was on active duty in the Army. I would do my due diligence invest and hold long term. Didn’t really have time to monitor much which overall worked out ok. I retired last year from the Army and although I still view myself as an investor I have been much more of a trader since, well I now have the time to be more active. I still tend to buy and hold but the only Biotech I currently have held consistently more than nine months is $ATNM. Binaries make me nervous and I bailed on $CLDN at $17 (for example) but that was just a gut lucky move. I avoid IPOs and try to buy as close to a near term dip as possible. Relearning all the time not to buy to much up front of any company. I follow Stock Gumshoe, Motley Fool, Yahoo Finance and of course all the websites and analysts of the companies I have invested in. Stock Gumshoe is by far the best website in my view for a variety of reasons and like many I of course really enjoy the friendship and dialogue that occurs; especially within the many articles written by Dr. KSS. Hooah!
V/R
Tom
$BLUE going long today with a buy/write, June 19 calls are selling for around $ 20.
At the money puts are about the same, may sell one same price and expiration.
Anyone do covered calls on Blue? Premiums look huge
$CALM – Egg prices will be increasing for the next 3-6 months due to the Avian flu. The following is brief research from zacks.com : Cal-Maine Foods, Inc. (CALM) is engaged in the production, cleaning, grading, and packaging of fresh shell eggs for sale to shell egg retailers.
Price gain over the last 4 weeks = 26.8%
Expected earnings growth for current year = 53.5%
Apart from a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy), Cal-Maine has a P/E (F1) of 16.34x.
Best2ALL!-Benjamin
CALM-4:38 pm ET *USDA Won’t Allow Release of Bird Flu Vaccine -Reuters Benzinga
BLFS-
BioLife Solutions Reports Increased Adoption of CryoStor(R) and HypoThermosol(R) Clinical Grade Biopreservation Media Products and Strong Interest in Cloud Based biologistex(TM) App & evo(TM) Smart Shipper at ISCT Conference
PR Newswire
BioLife Solutions, Inc. (BioLife) is engaged in the developing, manufacturing and marketing hypothermic storage and cryopreservation solutions for cells and tissue. The Company’s product offerings include biopreservation media products for cells, tissues, and organs; generic formulations of blood stem cell freezing media products; custom product formulation and custom packaging services; precision thermal packaging products, and contract aseptic manufacturing formulation, fill, and finish services of liquid media products. The Company markets its HypoThermosol, CryoStor, generic BloodStor, SAVSU biopreservation media products and precision thermal packaging products to the biobanking, drug discovery, and regenerative medicine markets, including hospital-based stem cell transplant centers, pharmaceutical companies, cord blood and adult stem cell banks, hair transplant centers, and suppliers of cells to the drug discovery, toxicology testing and diagnostic markets.
Best2ALL!-Benjamin
Very clever of you. All those CAR-T guys have to move the stuff around and I don’t think the cost of packaging is going to stop anyone from getting a treatment that costs a couple of hundred thou, or whatever ungodly number it’s gonna cost.
NBY-7:01 am ET
NovaBay Receives Approval To Market Its Novel Intelli-Case With Hydrogen Peroxide Solutions Dow Jones
7:00 am ET FDA Clears NovaBay Pharmaceuticals’ New High-Tech Device, intelli-Case, for Safely Disinfecting Contact Lenses with Hydrogen Peroxide BusinessWire
Best2ALL!-Benjamin
AVEO-:09 pm ET AVEO Announces Receipt of European Regulatory Guidance Regarding Potential Marketing Authorization Application for Tivozanib BusinessWire Best2ALL-Benjamin