Golds next bull run? What to buy?Gold looks to be headed higher even with a strong dollar so what are the best ways to play the next bull run in gold? I know Travis has (SAND) in his portfolio but I’d like to know his thoughts as well as yours. Do long term call options make sense for more leverage? I’d like to know what others who believe gold is going higher are buying and what worked best the last time gold reached new highs. Thank you in advance for your input. JB
This is a discussion topic or guest posting submitted by a Stock Gumshoe reader. The content has not been edited or reviewed by Stock Gumshoe, and any opinions expressed are those of the author alone.
Sharing article: Gold advances following highest close in a year $GLD $IAU $PHYS $SGOL $UGL $DGP $GTU $GLL $UGLD $DZZ $GLD http://seekingalpha.com/news/3163136-gold-advances-following-highest-close-year I have not read, have no affiliation with SA , Best2You-Ben
Anyone have an opinion about the merger of True GOld Mining with Endeaver Mining that was announced today?
The deal values True Gold stock(rvref / tgm.v) at US $.43 / Ca $.57 and the stock is currently trading for US $.37 so it would seem that, assuming the deal goes through, you can buy True Gold or rather a portion of EDV.to at a good discount right now.
Maybe there is a reason for the discount?
Haven’t looked at the details or the reason for a relatively wide arbitrage gap, but I like the idea of True Gold merging with a reasonably healthy and larger miner — Sandstorm Gold (SAND), which I still own, has a substantial streaming deal on True Gold’s Karma mine that’s under construction now, anything that increases the chances of that startup happening on time and the mine being well run for the long term is good news.
Hi JB,
There are lots of specific recommendations in the June 28 thread authored by Myron Martin…”A Turning Point on the Horizon?”
A number of contributors have presented their picks and reasoning.
Personally I think that your outlook and objectives need to be clear when deciding your position in precious metals. Why are you interested in a position ?
–Are you protecting yourself from an economic, political, or social disaster ?
–Are you looking for a store of wealth ?
–Are you speculating for profit ?
–Are you making a play in a physical commodity that you think is going to rise ?
–Are you protecting yourself from monetary debasement ?
–Are you simply diverifying your assets ?
There are several ways to invest or speculate in precious metals. Their suitability depends on your purposes and outlook.
1. Physical, non-numismatic gold and silver. Plain Jane coins or bullion.
2. Royalty companies.
3. Large cap miners
4. Small cap miners
5. Exploratory miners, mostly micro-caps
6. Funds backed by physical.
7. Commodity options and futures.
8. Mining or metal based ETFs
9. Rare and numismatic value coins.
For me these are in priority order, and I do not go below #5. My physical holdings are listed as the number one priority, but it is not my largest holding; it is simply the investment I would make first, since I consider it disaster insurance. My largest holdings are in royalty companies, large cap miners, and small cap miners. I do not believe in
funds unless they are redeemable; I do not like ETFS, you can find the best miners yourself; options and futures are a game for professionals; and I do not believe in collectibles, as the market is too thin and you need to be an expert.
SPECIFICS:
Physical: I have physical gold and silver totalling about 5% of my total assets, in coins without numismatic value. I keep them in my possession.
Royalty companies: I have SLW, SAND, RGLD.
Large cap miners: I own NEM & AEM.
Small cap miners: PVG and SSRI are conviction stocks for me. I have a bunch of others
mentioned in prior threads, some might be called exploration companies.
I try to avoid totalling up the whole of them, as I would scare myself and my fellow Gummeratis would label me a gold bug.
$PVG, SSRI and others-Thank you HendrixNuzzles for two awesome posts right in a row. 🙂 I figured I’d get right the middle of them. We really appreciate your sharing and educating us in the precious metals sector. Best2YouAlways-Ben
$PVG – Has left the station on a journey to the mountains. 🙂
Thank you Hendrixnuzzles for sharing your research and links. Best2All-Ben
Hi JB,
Here is a shameless plug of my own book: I am a big believer in $PVG for gold, and in second place for silver, $SSRI. That’s Pretium Resources for gold, Silver Standard Resources for silver.
Both have been extensively discussed in prior threads. PVG is in construction of a mine in British Columbia that will cost 750 to 900 million. Their financing is essentially finished, and they were able to do it in the current god-awful environment. They are nearly finished with financing, this month they raised another big chunk with a stock offer at
$ 5.48. Permits are done. Production will start next year. The mine will have a camp with 900 people, and they are building roads, power infrastructure, and everything else to go with it. And by the way, the largest gold miner in China has a 10% stake. Can you imagine how persuasive your due diligence must be to get a fat check out of the Chinese bureacracy ?
The PVG deposits have yielded drill samples with the most eye-popping concentrations
of gold grams-per-ton that I have ever seen in print. If you read a lot of mining analyses,
you will find that some mines will consider deposits with single-digit grams per ton as viable. Low single digits, in some cases. Well last month, PVG had a drill intercept of
20,000 grams per ton. That is called BONANZA GRADE in the trade. Take a look at the Pretium website, the previous thread discussions., and the recent Pretium Resource press releases.
Now SSRI is a silver miner. Take a look at their metrics and reserves, and see how they compare to other silver miners. Then consider that the entire PVG claim and reserves have huge amounts of silver in them, and that SSRI is in tight with PVG. SSRI has taken a stake in PVG, and will get the silver production from the PVG claim. SSRI is tight lipped about this because the reserves are properly the province of PVG to talk about. I believe that SSRI is undervalued by the silver reserves in the PVG claims.
The fact that SSRI and Zijin Mining (the Chinese) hasvetaken a stake in PVG also speaks volumes about the potential of PVG. Do you think your due diligence, or mine, or the opinion of a newsletter columnist, is going to be superior to that of the geologists at SSRI and Zijin ?
Anticipating the Coming 550% Gold Gains By Gerardo Del Real | Saturday, March 19, 2016: http://email.angelnexus.com/hostedemail/email.htm?CID=33476652336&ch=687E36284878FF4F936E7BCCF4A3356F&h=a2a110e946ae69c97fcb08cf2f9a8022&ei=sGwPMcC7N B2Gold (TSX: BTO)(NYSE: BTG) Canasil Resources (TSX-V: CLZ)(OTC: CNSUF) Lydian International (TSX: LYD)(OTC: LYDIF) GoldQuest Mining (TSX-V: GQC)(OTC: GDQMF) Also provides perspective on “The $PVG deposits have yielded drill samples with the most eye-popping concentrations of gold grams-per-ton that I have ever seen in print. If you read a lot of mining analyses, you will find that some mines will consider deposits with single-digit grams per ton as viable. Low single digits, in some cases. Well last month, PVG had a drill intercept of 20,000 grams per ton. That is called BONANZA GRADE in the trade. Take a look at the Pretium website, the previous thread discussions., and the recent Pretium Resource press releases.” above
Hendrixnuzzles, I want to thank you for an insightful answer to my original question. You, like our favorite Gumshoe, share your reasoning and intelligence freely in order to give those of us with a little less experience an opportunity to perhaps choose a company who will give us a better return on our investment. Thanks again for taking your time to share. All the best to you and yours. JB
$PVG Thanks, Bill. It’s exciting to be able to blather endlessly and find that some people actually like it. Wish my wife felt the same way…HA-ha, just kidding, I’m divorced…
and remember it helps in the stock market when other people go in the same direction as you do, so there is always the chance of a selfish motive.
Say about PVG, this just came across the news wire:
https://mail.google.com/mail/u/0/ui=2&ik=68775b7f98&search=sent&fs=1&view=cv&th=1373d371426ca902#inbox/15355ae689bbc342
More drill samples with grams per ton in the hundreds.
Say…this came across the newswires yesterday re PVG:
$PVG top part of release
VANCOUVER, BRITISH COLUMBIA–(Marketwired – March 8, 2016) – Pretium Resources Inc. (TSX:PVG) (NYSE:PVG) (“Pretivm” or the “Company”) is pleased to report a sixth set of results from the underground infill drill program at the Brucejack Project’s Valley of the Kings. Results continue to confirm the style and grade distribution of the Valley of the Kings gold mineralization in the area currently being tested, which includes the intersection of high grade and visible gold. Reported assays include four intersections grading greater than 1,000 grams per tonne gold. (See Table 1 below for assays.)
Selected drill highlights include:
Hole VU-565 intersected 206.23 grams of gold per tonne uncut over 17.00 meters, including 6,980 grams of gold per tonne uncut over 0.50 meters;
Hole VU-568 intersected 82.01 grams of gold per tonne uncut over 31.00 meters, including 4,060 grams of gold per tonne uncut over 0.50 meters;
Hole VU-573 intersected 39.04 grams of gold per tonne uncut over 23.50 meters, including 1,075 grams of gold per tonne uncut over 0.62 meters;
Hole VU-599 intersected 36.12 grams of gold per tonne uncut over 19.56 meters, including 1,075 grams of gold per tonne uncut over 0.60 meters.
Holes VU-565 and VU-568 were drilled from the 1320 drill bay, hole VU-573 was drilled from the 1310 drill bay while hole VU-599 was drilled from the 1260 drill bay. To date results from 186 holes (33,206 meters) have been reported.
For a plan and section views of the reported drill fans please see the following link: http://media3.marketwire.com/docs/1045917a.pdf.
$PVG drill results…it is fair to all who read about PVG drilling results to be aware of some of the aspects of the PVG deposits that have caused controversy, in the past.
The nature of the PVG deposits are that there are very rich but very narrow bonanza grades underground. The presence, size, and location of these veins is very difficult to predict, and the underground location make it expensive to mine. In many cases the veins are only half a meter thick
Early on in the development of the Brucejack deposits, PVG hired a respected, very conservative geology survey company to calculate their reserves. Because of the variable and random nature of the deposits, the survey company declared that there was NO VIABLE ECONOMIC GOLD in the claim. Basically they said “Look, these veins are too random and unpredictable to base a reserve estimate.” You can imagine what this did to Pretium stock.
Pretium said, “Hey, no, wait a second, if you take a large sample and average it out, the place is loaded with gold. You are wrong, Mr. Survey Company, there’s a potful of gold up there. We are going to get a different geologist !”
In retrospect, the drilling results have confirmed Pretium’s position concerning the
viability of the mine, as opposed to the original geology report that stated “no economic gold deposits.” Pretium’s position seems vindicated, and everything is cruising along: the mine is being built in a civilized country, the regulators, tree huggers and Indian tribes have been pacified, production is scheduled for 2017, and there is plenty of new exploration that will continue to expand the known reserves of Pretium’s claim, which area wise is enormous.
PRETIUM IS…A GOLD MINE !
$PVG…I was reviewing the big numbers on Pretium Resources and would like to point out that the current market capitalization of the company is $ 750 million, this amount being less that the original cost estimates for the $ 900 million mine they are IN THE PROCESS OF BUILDING, which has been financed, and which is fully permitted. The mine surveys have thousands of meters of completed drill samples yielding mind-boggling grams-per-ton assays.
The pro-forma 18 year production estimates are for 400,000 to 500,000 ounces of gold per year…starting 2017, NEXT YEAR. At $ 1200 per ounce, this means the gold production will produce enough capital to pay off the mine in two years. There will also be silver production.
If we imagine gold prices in excess of $ 1200 per ounce, the results get really silly and will make a really fabulous and unbelievable newsletter teaser.
At today’s prices you can buy the mill facility and infrastructure at original cost, AND YOU ARE GETTING THE GOLD IN THE GROUND FOR ZERO.
I can hear the crickets but here is a press release from PVG that summarizes
their activity for the year.
https://mail.google.com/mail/u/0/ui=2&ik=68775b7f98&search=sent&fs=1&view=cv&th=1373d371426ca902#inbox/15363763c2aa7a24
Unbroken string of positives with nary a retraction, backtrack, or disapppointment in view. These guys just completed permitting, approval, and groundbreaking for a 900 person gold milling plant , complete with electric and transport infrastructure, in the middle of the Canadian wilderness. Their claim is enormous and the exploration drilling contunues to add mine expansion targets which is already at an 18 year mine life with over 400K ounces per year. The market cap of the stock, $750 million, is less than the money raised to build the plant and they have $360 cash on hand.
Long PVG
$PVG- Pretivm Announces Exercise of Participation Rights by Orion Mine Finance 5:01 am ET March 11, 2016 (Market Wire)
Pretium Resources Inc. (TSX: PVG)(NYSE: PVG) (“Pretivm” or the “Company”) is pleased to announce that Orion Co-Investments II (ED) Limited (“Orion”) will subscribe for 752,906 Pretivm common shares (the “Common Shares”) at a price of US$4.58 per Common Share in a non-brokered private placement (the “Private Placement”). Pursuant to a subscription agreement dated September 15, 2015 between Orion and the Company, Orion is entitled to maintain its proportionate ownership interest in the Company by participating pro rata in issuances of our common shares. Orion has exercised such rights in connection with the Company’s public offering of common shares that closed on March 1, 2016 (the “Offering”). The total number of Pretivm common shares issued in connection with the Private Placement and the Offering will be 29,136,906 common shares for aggregate gross proceeds to Pretivm of US$133,447,029.
The Private Placement is scheduled to close on or about March 31, 2016, subject to the receipt of all necessary regulatory approvals including the approval of the Toronto Stock Exchange.
Pretivm intends to use the proceeds of the Private Placement (i) to fund development of the Brucejack Project, (ii) for working capital during start-up and (iii) for general corporate purposes.
Orion is not permitted to trade the Common Shares for a period of four months plus one day from the closing of the Private Placement. The Common Shares described herein have not been, and will not be, registered under the United States Securities Act of 1933, as amended, and may not be offered or sold within the United States absent registration or an applicable exemption from the registration requirements of such Act.
About Pretivm
Pretivm is constructing a high-grade underground gold mine at its Brucejack Project in northern British Columbia with commercial production targeted for 2017. $PVG Thx-HN 🙂 Best2ALL!-Ben
$PVG…big money moving into PVG in a year notoriously difficult to raise capital
in mining
Pretium has added a new press release to its website.
[Explanation: The largest gold miner in China is Zijin. Zijin has a 10% stake in Pretium and is permitted to maintain that proportion of ownership when Pretium increases share count. Pretium just did a private placement and Zijin has elected to maintain its proportionate share in Pretium by putting up more capital on the same terms and prices as the new guy.]
VANCOUVER, BRITISH COLUMBIA–(Marketwired – March 14, 2016) – Pretium Resources Inc. (TSX:PVG)(NYSE:PVG) (“Pretivm” or the “Company”) is pleased to announce that Zijin Mining Group Co., Ltd. (“Zijin”) will subscribe for 2,786,849 Pretivm common shares (the “Common Shares”) at a price of US$4.58 per Common Share in a non-brokered private placement (the “Private Placement”). Pursuant to a subscription agreement dated December 8, 2014 between Zijin and the Company, Zijin is entitled to maintain its proportionate ownership interest in the Company by participating pro rata in issuances of the Company’s common shares. Zijin has exercised such rights in connection with the Company’s public offering of common shares that closed on March 1, 2016 (the “Offering”). The total number of Pretivm common shares issued in connection with the Private Placement and the Offering will be 31,923,755 common shares for aggregate gross proceeds to Pretivm of US$146,210,798.
The Private Placement is scheduled to close on or about March 31, 2016, subject to the receipt of all necessary regulatory approvals including the approval of the Toronto Stock Exchange.
Pretivm intends to use the proceeds of the Private Placement (i) to fund development of the Brucejack Project, (ii) for working capital during start-up and (iii) for general corporate purposes.
Zijin is not permitted to trade the Common Shares for a period of four months plus one day from the closing of the Private Placement. The Common Shares described herein have not been, and will not be, registered under the United States Securities Act of 1933, as amended, and may not be offered or sold within the United States absent registration or an applicable exemption from the registration requirements of such Act.
PREACHING TO THE CHOIR…if you follow this thread you probably already believe in gold and silver, but I thought this reprint from Doug Casey was very well put.
Why Gold Is Money By Doug Casey (edited)
…..The dollar is, technically, a currency…a government substitute for money.
But gold is money.
Now, why do I say that?
Historically, many things have been used as money. Cattle…Salt… seashells…cigarettes. So, money is simply a medium of exchange and a store of value.
…..almost anything could be used as money (but) some things work better than others; it’s hard to exchange things people don’t want, and some things don’t store value well. Over thousands of years, the precious metals have emerged as the best form of money. Gold and silver both, though primarily gold.
There’s nothing magical about gold. It’s just uniquely well-suited among the 98 naturally occurring elements for use as money…in the same way aluminum is good for airplanes or uranium is good for nuclear power.
[…] Aristotle defined five reasons why gold is money in the 4th century BCE…Those five reasons are as valid today as they were then:
Money is… something that functions as a store of value and a medium of exchange…What, then, are the characteristics of a good money? Aristotle listed them… good money must be all of the following:
• Durable: …good money shouldn’t fall apart in your pocket nor evaporate when you aren’t looking. It should be indestructible. This is why we don’t use fruit for money… It doesn’t last.
• Divisible: …good money needs to be convertible into larger and smaller pieces without losing its value, to fit a transaction of any size. This is why we don’t use things like porcelain for money – half a Ming vase isn’t worth much.
• Consistent: A good money is something that always looks the same, (…) each piece identical to the next. This is why we don’t use things like oil paintings (or real estate) for money….
• Convenient: … good money packs a lot of value into a small package and is highly portable. This is why we don’t use water for money or copper as essential as (they are) – just imagine how much you’d have to deliver to pay for a new house.
• Intrinsically valuable: (G)ood money is something many people want or can use. This is critical to money functioning as a means of exchange; even if I’m not a jeweler, I know that someone, somewhere wants gold and will take it in exchange for something else of value… This is why we don’t – or shouldn’t – use things like scraps of paper for money, no matter how impressive the inscriptions upon them might be.
(T)here’s a sixth reason Aristotle should have mentioned, but it wasn’t relevant in his age: (Gold or silver as money) cannot be created out of thin air.
…
These are the reasons why gold is the best money. It’s not a gold bug religion, nor a barbaric superstition. It’s simply common sense. Gold is particularly good for use as money, just as aluminum is particularly good for making aircraft, steel is good for the structures of buildings, uranium is good for fueling nuclear power plants, and paper is good for making books…
That gold is money is simply the result of the market (seeking) optimum means of storing value and making exchanges.
GOLD STOCKS…for what it’s worth, the technical indicators have gone strongly positive in almost every gold and silver stock I have. There are strong MA crossovers and very healthy MACD indicators. Most prices are at or above 200 day moving averages.
$PVG…news today
Pretivm – Pretivm Announces Closing of Private Placement
To boil it down, I take this to be extremely positive for the following reasons:
–The mine financing is completed.
–Two big partners, one of which is the largest gold miner in China, have exercised their right to maintain a proportionate share in the company, after the company has issued more stock. In other words, they ponied up more money to maintain their share of the company. You can be sure that their due diligence is going to be better than what we can come up with. There is a four month lockup on the new shares.
Do I need to add: Long PVG ?
$PVG-Long, Thank you hendrixnuzzlezzz 🙂 >>>—Best2You-Ben—–>
Hi Ben. I have found that when owning gold or silver in any form, including mining stocks, I become relatively indifferent to the daily fluctuations of the metal.
In other words, I get some peace of mind from the holdings. I don’t like seeing the prices go down, but I am comfortable that in the end these things are going to keep relative value.
Another thing…everyone has it backwards in pricing. If you want to know the value of things, price them in gold. Gold is constant, it is the other things that are bobbing up and down. Including currencies.
http://pricedingold.com/
Patricia Thanks,,,good asset.
The move to negative interest rates by international Big Government, including China, US, and Europe, will permanently discredit the old argument against holding gold “because it pays no interest”.
Can anyone help me understand why true gold is now .47 per share and the deal was a sell at .43 ?? It has been green for the last week and rising .. Voting should be complete.
Will take a look, Endeavor was on my radar but I haven’t looked deeply into it, and I am not a mining expert. But I’ll see what I can find on the web.
GOLD AND SILVER LONG PERFORMANCE week ending 4/21
Hi everybody. January 19 was the low point for my portfolio. My gold and silver holdings were heading south with no relief in sight, and I had just taken some really bad hits in a few big biotech positions. Wasn’t feeling so good.
Here is the recap of gold/silver stocks I owned at the time and stuck with. All were recommended. I repeat I did not enter at the lows; I had them before. But you can just send me the money you were going to give to Stansberry to me care of Travis. .
This week’s closing prices and 52 week lows and date:
$PVG…$7.36 new highs. Closed at $ 3.995 on January 17.
$SSRI..$8.45, a 52 week high. Closed at 3.80 on January 19.
$AEM…$41.83. On Sept 11 it made a double bottom in September at 22.15,
tested the low but ended above the September low before moving up.
$NEM…32.19, a new 52 week high. Similar to AEM, bottomed in September, tested at 16.31 on January 19, so you have almost a double since then.
$SLW…19.07…not a 52 week high. Terrible laggard because of their tax problems.
On January 20 the stock was at $ 10.52, they only have an 81% gain.
RGLD 57.59, was at 23.33 on January 19.
Those are the big, stable guys. The juniors were:
BCEKF…2.01, a new 52 week high. Could of had it for 35 cents on January 19.
AAU…1.17 plus a spinoff of 31 cents=1.48, versus 1.46. Well it is a 52 week high, and they are an exploration company.
SAND…Closed 4.04. January 20 it was 2.02. You can do the math on this one.
I closed out Klondex and since added FNV and a few others but they were not with me in my hour of darkness on January 19.
Can’t really say I know what will happen in the gold market or the currency or the economy. But one thing that definitely will not happen is me selling out my gold and silver positions in the near future.
5 #Star #Post #Chief – Re: 042116 precious metals Jan thru present 🙂
$EXK Endeavor Silver…a reader was asking about this company. Superficially there are a lot of plusses, only a few minuses; the plusses predominating.
Plusses are that it has 3 working mines, good infrastructure, credible management, good cash, and reasonable reserves. The mines are all in Mexico and there are also four large
potential targets. The mines produced 11 MM Ag equivalent ounces in 2015. There is some gold production that contributes. MC is about$ 400 million. There is a company focus on a new resource they think will be a winner.
The only negatives I can see are that the reserves are not growing from the 200 MM ounce level; but this issue may resolve with the new discovery. Also, the comapny margins were only 9%, so their all-in sustaining costs must be over $ 10 per ounce.
What this means is that the company will generate much bigger profits IF SILVER PRICES GO UP, because then the profit percentage will swell up magnificently since every extra dollar in silver price will drop to the bottom line.
Essnetially I think this is a good mine, provided you believe silver prices will not go lower than they did in 2015. Management appears serious about cost control, which would be essential for their survival were prices to go down.
I would definitely consider the stock myself. The deal recently mentioned I have not researched, but anytime there is a joint effort it means there is something that someone is excited about.
$EXK….The company seems like a solid mid-tier silver miner. There are no major questions for me other than reserves and future silver/gold prices.
This sounds lukewarm but I have a lot of pretty exciting competition I would have to sell to get money to buy EXK. But to put it in perspective,I do like the company better than: conventional stocks, government or municipal bonds, annuities, or any other number of financial assets you can name.
I see the merger for True Gold and $EXK has been approved. The Karma mine is in Burkina Faso in west Africa. Don’t know about it other than it is supposed to be pretty good. I think there is a streaming deal with one of my royalty companies.
Would have to check on the mine, political issues and logistics in the area to make a judgement, but the shareholders approved it.
WRONG INFORMATION. The True Gold merger is with Endeavor Mining, not Endeavor Silver. No connection I can see between Endeavor Mining and Endeavor Silver, I apologize.
I believe (read recently) Burkina Faso has a strong dictator who is in favor with the US but not so much with the people living under him. This sort of thing tends to work out for investments; obviously stability is the element you need to research for confidence.
$PVG news…good news continues…
http://www.pretivm.com/news/news-details/2016/Pretium-Resources-Inc-Valley-of-the-Kings-Infill-Drilling-Continues-to-Intersect-High-Grade-Gold/default.aspx