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written by reader Golds next bull run? What to buy?

By jbnaples, March 3, 2016

Gold looks to be headed higher even with a strong dollar so what are the best ways to play the next bull run in gold? I know Travis has (SAND) in his portfolio but I’d like to know his thoughts as well as yours. Do long term call options make sense for more leverage? I’d like to know what others who believe gold is going higher are buying and what worked best the last time gold reached new highs. Thank you in advance for your input. JB

This is a discussion topic or guest posting submitted by a Stock Gumshoe reader. The content has not been edited or reviewed by Stock Gumshoe, and any opinions expressed are those of the author alone.

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hendrixnuzzles
April 28, 2016 5:18 pm

BULL MARKET IN GOLD ENTERS 4th MONTH
Hi everyone. The Stansberry thread gets more readers but the originator of this thread asked the question many of us are interested in: What do we buy in the gold bull run ?

The Dow was off today 200 points. Long gold and silver.

My opinion is that we are in a bull market for gold, or conversely a deterioration in the US Dollar, that commenced on or about January 20, 2016. That was the low point for most gold-related stocks. Since then we have had nearly a straight-line increase that
was given an exclamation point today in the markets, after last week’s surprise announcement by China of a quasi-peg of the yuan to gold.

My belief is that we have just seen the gold bull rip off its costume mask. It is standing there bare-headed now, nostrils flared, and it’s snorting. I think there will be a wider realization that the central bank propaganda and action are ultimately destructive of fiat currency value, and there will be an accelerating and widening grassroots demand for precious metals. The bull market is underway. Few noticed. And NO ONE knows for how long or for how high it will go on.

The bull market will be punctuated by soothing words from the powers that be, who will do everything possibly to manipulate, spin, downplay and minimize the implications of soaring metal prices. There will be pullbacks. But the bull is charging and can be seen today’s action. This is the second major “bull day” in recent weeks. It was pretty dramatic.

Below are today’s closing price, increase $, increase % for selected tickers that I consider investments, listed in order of increase. I have other tickers that I would class as speculations, but it is a disservice to readers to include them in the same class as these:

$PVG $7.85 +.44 +5.94% my favorite, rookie wins the one day beauty contest
$SLW 19.87 +1.03 +5.47%
$SAND 4.12 +.21 +5.37%
$AEM 43.23 +1.85 +4.47%
$RGLD $60.22 +1.99 +3.42%
$FNV $68.61 +2.13 +3.20%
$SSRI 8.99 +.29 +3.29%
$NEM $32.90 +.80 +2.49%

Best wishes to everyone.

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faz
Irregular
faz
April 28, 2016 7:28 pm
Reply to  hendrixnuzzles

Yes it’s like the fireworks just keep going and going.. waiting for the pullback for how long now – and newsletter writers keep telling to take profits – and I saw on CanadianInsider.com how some PM miner insiders have been selling into the rise.. but I have held on. Maybe Rick Rule had it right and I should just stop looking at the PMs and miners for a couple of years and just let the cake rise now that its in the oven..

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hendrixnuzzles
April 28, 2016 7:40 pm
Reply to  faz

Let it bake, baby.

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hendrixnuzzles
April 28, 2016 9:27 pm
Reply to  faz

Hey frahman, if there is a grassroots change in thinking with widespread international demand, there may not be a pullback for a long time.

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hendrixnuzzles
April 28, 2016 5:24 pm

Forgot to mention. Gold prices ended around $ 1256, up $ 10.
That’s a whopping 0.8% rise. Is this what It triggers a one day gain of 2 to 6% in the producers of the stuff ?

I don’t think so. There is a change happening in peoples’ perception of value, safety, and the credibility of the international government/banking policies. People can see what a mess has been made.

Have a great day !

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hendrixnuzzles
April 28, 2016 7:10 pm

$ABX, $GOLD, $GG, ETFS and Indexes…Surely some of you are in these other tickers or will have questions or comments about them. I think they are all first-class and worthy of consideration as core positions. But for me there are practical limits to how many positions I can consider, and I do not have any of them. It is more a question of taste and temperment than anything else.

$ABX…I have been in and out of ABX and it is ceertainly a miner that is very important in the sector. Nothing wrong here, however I went with NEM and AEM on account of the fact that ABX has pretty severe debt and financial challenges. It should have super leverage on account of this but at the time I was taking a position, their balance sheet and the risk of the debt load made it less attractive to me than NEM and AEM.

Randgold…another premier producer but I decided to avoid African miners if choices in other jurisdictions could be had. No issue with dissenting opinions.

ETFs/Indexes… they are OK for those who want to be diversified in the sector and in normal times they’ll be fine. But I would prefer to trawl through the holdings, find the positions they believe in, and do the research and picks myself. A lot of these funds are probably just cap-weighted anyway, like they are in biotech…no real thought or analysis, just “match the market.”

I also wonder how they would react in a real bad financial meltdown. Somebody inside one of those funds could go haywire and do God-know-what or forget to unhedge something. Who knows what they do or what controls they have. I’d rather know that I have a slug of Miner X and carload of Royalty Company Y, and have a lot of confidence in the specific companies I own and their prospects. But that’s just me.

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faz
Irregular
faz
April 28, 2016 7:41 pm
Reply to  hendrixnuzzles

If I may chip in on this one, hendrix ?
ABX – I personally wouldn’t touch ABX with a large barge pole. Very suspect company with ex CIA insiders on the board in the past, and an ex Goldman Sachs (aka ‘vampire squid’) bigshot now at the helm. They may have had a role in ‘money laundering’ some large stash of gold that went missing along with some chinese vessel some decades back. No doubt they will do well financially but .. Barrick’s just too ‘dirty’.
Randgold is probably the best single gold miner in the world, and Mr Bristow the best CEO.
Rick Rule often quips that the worst political risk you’ll ever have is the one on your front doorstep – and quotes how Albertastan unexpectedly hiked taxes on miners in the past – mines being also difficult to pick up and drive off with, even in developed countries. So Africa risk is not necessarily worse than Canada risk. Just wait till the implications of Trudeau’s 30$billion deficit spending budget hits the cold light of dawn.
AEM is a keeper like Randgold.
On market cap weighted indexes – yes these are problematic as often large cap is not synonymous with high profitability. The Tocqueville fund and Sprotts gold miner fund have more ‘intelligent’ selection/weighting criteria – but I missed the boat on those, I feel.
Night all.

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hendrixnuzzles
April 28, 2016 7:51 pm
Reply to  faz

Different opinions welcome, that is the point of the forum.
Some people might think the CIA/Goldman connections are a plus.

But we all need reasons to eliminate choices, there are too many anyway. If your criteria work for you, that’s what matters.

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hendrixnuzzles
April 28, 2016 7:53 pm
Reply to  faz

Randgold…I agree it would be my first pick if I overcome my aversion to African countries I know nothing about.

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hendrixnuzzles
April 28, 2016 7:38 pm

A few comments on today’s action.
In my opinion the action today shows a widespread increase in sentiment favoring safety and hard money. It is not your garden variety increase in a normal commodity like cocoa
or soybeans. The reasons I am of this opinion are as follows:

–The move is occurring in the face of efforts by the Yellow Peril Social Economic Imperialist (China) to control prices. China is a huge factor and last week they stepped up to the plate and made a pseudo-move towards redeemability of their currency to gold.
The initial peg was $ 1239 per ounce. But the market has blasted right through this.

–Efforts by the US/EUR/Japan group are more focussed on “negative interest rates”
and “stimulus” policies. The policies are failing, everyone can see it now even with the Chinese co-operating with the G7. They are trying to make a baby by masturbating. The implications are that the currencies involved are headed for the crapper. The presses are runnning non-stop in the form of computerized credits.

–The stock market action and internal fundamentals are ominous.
–There was a marked move away from speculation and risk in other sectors I noticed, meaning the biotech sector. I still have some large positions in the biotech sector but I have pared back some of the positions that I think are really long term plays, or that do not have the potential for really big payoffs.
–Another thing about risk aversion…even within the gold sector, the ACTUAL PRODUCERS got the biggest bumps. The exploration companies, the land banks, the guys who don’t have a deal done or a mill built, they did not do so well today. The market was not so interested in properties that MIGHT produce gold SOMEDAY. The companies that are for sure going to be producing lots of gold, they got the increases.
–No matter what MSNBC, the White House, Harry Dent, or anybody else has to say, there are going to be a billion and a half Chinese, a billion plus Indians, and a couple of billion Muslims who believe in the value of gold and silver as money. Plus Doug Casey and Jim Rickards and Hendrixnuzzles.

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hendrixnuzzles
April 28, 2016 9:53 pm

GOLD RUSH CONTINUES …These things can change in a flash. But gold hit $1277.50 after hours today. At 9:48 EDT 1275.70 bid, 1276.70 ask. Very tight spread.
Silver getting near $18.

The “pullback” forecast by the pundits may be a while in coming. Best to not be too cute.
Long and staying that way.

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hendrixnuzzles
April 28, 2016 10:32 pm

GOLD LONGS & JB…there are too many threads on gold and silver.
Since JB asked the right question in my view, and I have stuck my neck out again and proclaimed a bull market in precious metals, I am going to camp out here with my comments on major gold and silver investments and gold in general, as long as my bull proclamation remains valid and in effect. The exception will be for any junior and exploration miners in blogs authored by Myron Martin.

The subject bull market started on or about January 20. It was tentatively suggested in late March, then confirmed strongly in the last few days.

Unfortunately I entered the sector way early, last year. I lost a lot, so clearly I was an idiot. But now I’m getting healthy fast and my IQ is zooming.

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hendrixnuzzles
April 28, 2016 11:39 pm

Interesting for a few reasons.
First. In October this asset management company moved to fold up their gold fund. But the unit holders voted against it last month, and voted to fold up the energy fund instead ! Grass-roots interest !!
Second. The top holdings of the fund are given, for those looking for highly regarded gold investments. Biggest holdings are GOLD, GG, DGC, AEM, FNV.
Third, the TD Asset Management gold fund is named, for those interested.

Canadian Investors Love Their Precious Metals Mutual Funds
Thursday April 28, 2016 12:05
(Kitco News) – Canadian Investors love their precious metals investments and appear to want to take full advantage of the sector’s new momentum.

At least that was the message sent to TD Asset Management as it was looking to merge its TD Precious Metals Fund into its Resource Fund. The merger and discontinuation of the Precious Metals Fund was first announced in October with the bank holding a unitholder vote at the start of the month.

In an email response to Kitco News, Ana Aujla, manager of corporate and public affairs TD Bank Group, said that unitholders voted against terminating the TD Precious Metals Fund, which left it in tact; however investors did vote to merge the bank’s TD Energy Fund into the Resource Fund.

“TD Precious Metals Fund will continue to be available for purchase by investors,” the bank said in a statement following the results of the vote.

TD did not provide any information on the vote so it is unknown how big of a margin the Precious Metal Fund merger lost by.

It is not surprising that the merger failed as the precious metal sector has seen a significant rally since the start of the year…..

According information provided by TD, the Precious Metals Fund invests in companies that explore, mine and produce precious metals. The fund can also hold physical metal.

As of Feb. 29, 2016 the fund was valued at more than $129 million with a total of 63 investments with 80.5% in Canadian companies. The fund’s top five investments are: Franco-Nevada Corporation (TSX: FNV), Detour Gold (TSX: DGC), Randgold Resources (Nasdaq: GOLD), Agnico Eagle Mines (TSX: AEM, NYSE: AEM) and Goldcorp (TSX: G, NYSE: GG).

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hendrixnuzzles
April 28, 2016 11:49 pm

RE: Gold mine political jurisdictions…this is what you worry about:
http://www.mining.com/kyrgyz-law-enforcement-agencies-search-centerra-golds-office/?

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hendrixnuzzles
April 29, 2016 7:37 am

FIREWORKS SHOW TODAY…gold and silver up strongly overnight.
Metal equities should go bonkers today. Got my front row tickets.
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/gold-heads-for-15-month-high-as-dollar-gets-crushed-2016-04-29

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hendrixnuzzles
April 29, 2016 8:04 am

Careful with options. One can be right about the direction and wrong on the timing. It would be awful to be correct about the direction of the market and still lose money. This is definitely possible without-of-the-money options.

Thanks for your original post. You asked the $64,000 dollar question and I think it is the perfect heading to consolidate discussion of gold and silver during the newly-proclaimed gold bull market. Don’t know how much interest there will be but this is the thread where I am going to post on major gold and silver investments.

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hendrixnuzzles
April 29, 2016 9:05 am

DOLLAR SINKS TO 11-MONTH LOW BOOSTING COMMODITIES AS STOCKS DROP
By James Regan and Stephen Kirkland – Fri, 29 Apr 2016 11:24:06 GMT

(Bloomberg) — The dollar headed for its lowest close in almost a year as signs of slowing growth in the U.S. dimmed prospects for a Federal Reserve interest-rate increase. Stocks fell and commodities extended gains in their best month since 2010.

The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index fell for a second day, while the yen headed for its biggest weekly jump since 2008. Declines in the greenback are proving a boon for raw materials, helping lift gold and silver to 15-month highs. Crude oil has jumped 21 percent this month to more than $46 a barrel in New York. European equities trimmed their biggest monthly advance since November.

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arch1
April 29, 2016 5:13 pm
Reply to  hendrixnuzzles

Even though there is no rationality in the $ drop against the yen and the Euro as all three are racing for the bottom this is a boost for commodities as it sinks in to producers how much fiat currencies are worth less. I think this was triggered by China trying to tie the Yuan to gold. Fat chance/Slim chance I say. It is anybodies guess where this will go.

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hendrixnuzzles
April 30, 2016 9:29 am
Reply to  arch1

Rickards thinks the IMF has done a deal to strengthen yen and euro and cheapen yuan, basically to give China some relief; with the USD maintaining relative position to yuan. With China trying to peg yuan to gold and gold soaring, I don’t know how on earth this could work if they are really trying to do it. Hoping these central bankers run into the wall soon.

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arch1
April 30, 2016 9:56 am
Reply to  hendrixnuzzles

Too much tea drinking. Ayahuasca tea that is. IMF reminds of Slim Pickins at end of bombing run. Might be mushroom tea instead. Dr. Strangelove in action.

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hendrixnuzzles
April 30, 2016 12:07 am

DAILY PRICE MOVES ON GOLD STOCKS OF NOTE
Friday was an enormous day with gold approaching $ 1290.
Long all tickers. ONE DAY Close, dollar change, % change
PVG $8.23 +.38 +4.84%
SLW $20.95 +1.08 +5.44
SAND $4.27 +.15 +3.64%
RGLD $62.62 +2.40 +3.99%
FNV 70.16 +1.55 +2.26%
SSRI $9.39 +.34 +3.76%
NEM $34.97 +1.98 +6.00%…wow
AG $10.64 +.62 +6.19% …wow

Obviously these moves scream BULL MARKET.

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dan62
April 30, 2016 1:35 am

I’m in $KGILF. just checked it was up 7.5% today. Been doing well..

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hendrixnuzzles
April 30, 2016 9:05 am
Reply to  dan62

This was one of Myron Martin’s picks, he’ll be gratified to know.
No position.

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Carlos
Carlos
April 30, 2016 3:04 am

Matt Baldiali’s recs: some include:
Paas, FSM, PVG, NGD, GORO,

Porter and others are rec: NEM NG , AG, and others. These are confirmed by me as I’ve read about them.

I also subscribe to another newsletter mostly JR’s recommended:
Guyana mines, Timmons, Kirkland, LunaGold, Jaguar mining, SantaCruz silver mining,
Lexam PG mining,

disclaimer, I’m invested in a number of the above recs as well as FFMGF and GWSAF
all doing well to extremely well with the recent run up. I think we will be pleasantly surprised with our portfolios if the bull run continues, for a year or so.

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Carlos
Carlos
April 30, 2016 3:05 am

Stansberry recs include:
Paas, FSM, PVG, NGD, GORO,

NEM NG , AG, and others.

from another newsletter mostly JR’s recommended:
Guyana mines, Timmons, Kirkland, LunaGold, Jaguar mining, SantaCruz silver mining,
Lexam PG mining,

disclaimer, I’m invested in a number of the above recs as well as FFMGF and GWSAF
all doing well to extremely well with the recent run up. I think we will be pleasantly surprised with our portfolios if the bull run continues, for a year or so.

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hendrixnuzzles
April 30, 2016 1:56 pm

$PVG…long PVG

Hear what the CEO of Pretium Robert Quartermain said last week at a Swiss gold investment conference:

http://www.europeangoldforum.org/EGF16/company-webcast/PVG:CN/

This mine is going to be LEGENDARY. He showed data from a blind drilling in a new exploration zone within their claim that had an intercept of 8600 grams per ton.
Good old hole SU666.

He “suggested” that when the new probable and proven reserves are done, the mine
will have “much more than seven million ounces [of gold]” proven and probable, and is going to be around a lot longer than the 18 years in the pro-formas.

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dan62
April 30, 2016 4:36 pm

http://incakolanews.blogspot.com
Above is a blog I check out about miners.

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Travis Johnson, Stock Gumshoe
April 30, 2016 6:28 pm
Reply to  dan62

A very interesting guy. And he loves to tear into the Casey/Stansberry folks.

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hendrixnuzzles
April 30, 2016 8:49 pm

Let him tear away. I found PVG from solving a Casey teaser on your site.
Long PVG

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Travis Johnson, Stock Gumshoe
May 1, 2016 1:02 am
Reply to  hendrixnuzzles

True, marketers can be scumbags about the way they sell newsletters and correct about a stock at the same time. That’s why I try to consider stocks independent of the folks who recommend them (and the way in which they’re recommended or promoted).

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hendrixnuzzles
May 2, 2016 10:36 am

Your site is the best value in the investment publishing business. Thanks Travis.

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dan62
April 30, 2016 9:19 pm

$PVG Thanks for the link to the video H.N. I liked the part where he says his shares are from $6 to $10.. The amount they have there appears to be fantastic. So will look for an entrance point.. $456 an ounce to get it out of the ground sounds really good. There’s money to be made even it gold price cools.. Like you said earlier the Chinese owning 10%. This has to be a pretty solid deal..

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hendrixnuzzles
April 30, 2016 10:01 pm
Reply to  dan62

Yes think about the backers…the largest Chinese state miner. A mid-tier silver company. Management. And by the way, the owner named “Liberty” is an investment arm of Liberty Insurance. They raised capital from an insurance company !

Quartermain has capped the stream deal in favor of the stockholders. There are going to be huge additions to reserves. This mine is going to rock and roll.

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dan62
April 30, 2016 10:37 pm
Reply to  hendrixnuzzles

His name is Robert A Quartermain.. Think his middle name is Allen? Ha if it is I’m loading up…

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hendrixnuzzles
April 30, 2016 10:02 pm
Reply to  dan62

I wouldn’t wait too long to enter, it may blast off and never come back.
In the end it won’t matter if you came in at $7.80 or $8.50.

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hendrixnuzzles
April 30, 2016 9:54 pm

PVG and HARD MONEY OUTLOOK

Irrespective of whether one agrees with their macro viewpoints, Casey, Rickards, Stansberry and the hard money folks will be vindicated if gold goes up high enough. The world does not need to fall apart for gold to go up. You do not need to agree with Rickardss politics, or Casey’s economics. Gold just needs to go up.

I have also found that after the teaser is solved, the due diligence starts. Casey’s teaser named seven junior miners, of which three or four were interesting to me and resulted in positions. PVG was best in the group, and little by little I am building a big position in this mine and learning as much as I can about it. Everything that has happened since I started following it has tended to confirm that this mine is going to be an absolute monster. It is beginning to dominate my gold holdings because it has all the boxes checked and the advantages of a big-cap, small-cap, and exploration/development company in one pick. Every time I consider another gold or silver play, it must stack up favorably with PVG, and this is very hard to do.

Why risk money on a low-cost, low-grade 5 gram mine in West Africa, when you have a fully financed Canadian mill under construction that will pour 500,000 ounces gold per year in 2017 , and has millions of tons proven reserves at 15 grams per ton average ?
Why put hopes into an Arctic or Turkish or Argentine explorer with no deal and no mine, when Pretium already has 7 million ounces proven and probable at Brucejack… and lots more to come, that will use the same mill and infrastructure that is being completed right now !? They have an enormous unexplored claim. It is in a gold mine zone adjacent to the biggest gold mine ever built in Canada. And they have 6 new drill intercepts in yet a different area of the claim, where they hit gold on 6 of 6 drills. One of the holes, hole SU666, hit an intercept of 8600 grams per ton. That is 8600. EIGHT SIX WITH TWO ZEROS. EIGHT KILOGRAMS.

Robert Quartermain CEO has 2 million shares. He acquired them at $6 and $10. His interests are aligned with the stockholders.

Looking for negatives and don’t see any….other than the possibility of a deflationary crash in gold prices, or IRS confiscating “windfall profits”, or an earthquake destroying the mine, or a comet dropping out of the sky and landing on the mill.

All the analysts are now on the bandwagon. Hope my friends are too.

The only unknown to me is what will happen to the price of gold. And we should realize, anything can happen.

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hendrixnuzzles
April 30, 2016 10:11 pm
Reply to  hendrixnuzzles

The analysts make me laugh. One sneezes and they all get a mild fever. They are all liking PVG now. Zacks suggested high single digits, the others really stuck out their necks and have prices in the teens. What insightful analysis.

I’m telling you now. PVG will be north of $ 30 within three years. I am making a large bet on this outcome.

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