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written by reader Golds next bull run? What to buy?

By jbnaples, March 3, 2016

Gold looks to be headed higher even with a strong dollar so what are the best ways to play the next bull run in gold? I know Travis has (SAND) in his portfolio but I’d like to know his thoughts as well as yours. Do long term call options make sense for more leverage? I’d like to know what others who believe gold is going higher are buying and what worked best the last time gold reached new highs. Thank you in advance for your input. JB

This is a discussion topic or guest posting submitted by a Stock Gumshoe reader. The content has not been edited or reviewed by Stock Gumshoe, and any opinions expressed are those of the author alone.

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investor101
Irregular
April 30, 2016 11:51 pm

First of all thanks to Hendrix Nuzzles and others for the wonderful insights about the metals. I am a new investor and learning by trial and error, first by subscribing to some really unnessary newsletters and losing a lot of money. Don’t remember how I found Travis last year, but immediately became an irregular and so very grateful for each of you sharing and caring about others. I too have some mining stocks that have been mentioned and I am beyond thrilled to see them going up, these miners need some good news! I love all things gold and in the Bible you will find that Jesus got Peter to go and get a GOLD coin out of a fish’s mouth to pay their taxes! That is good enough for me.

Now my question is……how much to buy of each stock, how many different ones to diversify and Casey said when you are up 50% to take some profit and I find I don’t want to or quite understand how to do this. If I liquidate some of the shares then what if it really takes off and I get left behind? Also I am not sure how long to hold these positions as I understand they are so volitile. I would greatly appreciate any suggestions from any of you as to what you are doing or thinking at this time. I hate to be needy, but everyone has to start somewhere.

I absolutely hate Harry Den’t newsletter! I do pray he is not right in his analysis about gold going down to $400!!! Maybe he works for the govt and knows they will do anything to control and tax away our profits. Who knows, it is such a crazy world we live in.

Thanks to all. Karen

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hendrixnuzzles
May 2, 2016 2:28 am
Reply to  investor101

Hi Karen, Personally I am not looking for trading profits on most of my gold positions. I am looking for insurance and protection from unpredictable outcomes in our national financial and economic scene. And I look at gold royalty stocks as being equivalent to saving in a money market or government bond. I would rather have my extra $ 5,000 funds socked away in FNV or SAND at low prices, than I would in a money market fund. But that is what I am comfortable with, though it is not for everyone.

So the right allocation depends on your outlook. Most advisors will suggest 5% to 15% of your assets be held in hard money assets or cash. Some will suggest more. You must find what you are comfortable with.

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dan62
May 1, 2016 12:24 am

If you figure out the definitive answers to those questions let me know.. Balance is the best way to chug along..
I like the being invested in North American miners.. Gives me peace of mind.. Other parts of the world I don’t know how stable they are.. ( kinda like if you can’t go take a piss on it once in awhile don’t buy it…

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hendrixnuzzles
May 2, 2016 2:29 am
Reply to  dan62

No definitive answers are out there. Only your answers.

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hendrixnuzzles
May 2, 2016 2:39 am
Reply to  hendrixnuzzles

If one is really unsure about what is going to happen, then diversification is appropriate. When you start developing an opinion about what is going to happen or what is likely to happen, then you can consider becoming less diversified, depending on the conviction of your beliefs and the perceived chances of certain things occurring.

For example, I believe that the government and central bank policies are eventually going to result in failure, and awful things for paper currencies. I am not on a politcal crusade to change anything, I am just trying to see clearly what is happening. I believe that politically these policies will be continued even though they are ineffective.

I don’t see how it can be otherwise, although the timing is uncertain and how it plays out cannot be known. But my outlook creates certain logical actions in my investments.

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Yoopert
May 1, 2016 2:49 pm

Thanks to all who have been contributing to this discussion! I have been lurking on the sidelines for awhile and decided to join. It is refreshing to find a discussion where everybody acts respectful and helpful. I am blessed enough to have gotten in on many of these stocks discussed in January. I have subscribed to investment services in the past and have learned that I do best if I do my own research and investigating. Discussions such as this are very helpful. I look forward to future discussions and contributing in a positive way if I am able.

investor101
Irregular
May 1, 2016 4:05 pm

Thanks Dan, I guess that is why it is a big crap shoot, isn’t it? But…the dice are loaded in our favor with a decent find and excellent proven management. Agree with ng I do like PVG and also AG. I just don’t like the thought of being dropped in the grease if they know something beforehand and dump their shares. Guess I need to be diligent and watch this account every day. I started my own account with Ameritrade because the vulture financial managers we have had made plenty of money and we were not!! Just sick of it all in this precarious environment and especially of all the target marketing. If you want to know the rest of the story sign up for $2000-2500 or more!!! Thanks to all of you I feel like I will get a better education from all of you with your sharing of failures and wins. Thank you, Travis I am so grateful for your hard work and making this available for people like me.

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investor101
Irregular
May 1, 2016 4:16 pm

Question… Does anyone think it worth $1450 to invest in Casey’s International Speculator newsletter for a year as we see the metals market change?

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faz
Irregular
faz
May 1, 2016 7:00 pm
Reply to  investor101

Hi investor101…
I did subscribe to it.. and sadly lost far more than the lifetime-subscription (am seriously considering not continuing it…)
With hindsight I’ve learned you can find out many good stock picks without spending a dime on a subscription.
There are a number of free newsletters, and nowadays it’s easy to look at the holdings inside the various funds. For example, if you go to the SEDAR website you can see the official forms that Sprott has to fill out detailing what miner stocks they hold in their various funds. (That’s a much better quality list than say, the GDX/GDXJ indexes, which include large-cap rubbish stocks.) For US-based firms there is the EDGAR website.
And I have also found that Casey do NOT cover some really good miners. For example, they have ignored Mandalay even though it has been paying a 5% dividend during the recent horrible bear market. Imagine that – a gold miner in a gold bear market, paying yields one expects from a telecom / utility – what kind of profitability will it see once the gold price recovers ?! I think they also seem to have ignored NevSun. Can’t understand these blindspots.

So I would recommend getting onto youtube.com and searching for talks by these characters:
– Adrian Day
– Rick Rule
– Erick Coffin (Hard Rock Analyst)
– Micky Fulp (Mercenary Geologist)
– Gwen Preston (Resource Maven)
– CEO.ca
A recent post by hendrixnuzzles (thanks hendrix!) led me to this list of miner presentations recently in Zurich (you can find good talks by Mandalay and PVG and more):
http://www.europeangoldforum.org/egf16/egf16-webcast/company-webcasts-alphabetical/
(Note on Patience: Due to the volatile nature of the mining stocks, some paid service might issue a recommendation first to their premium subscribers, and LATER release it to a wider audience.. only to see that the price drops to a better entry point! Ironic.)

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hendrixnuzzles
May 2, 2016 2:44 am
Reply to  investor101

I think you can get more than enough great precious metal investment ideas for $49 on Stock Gumshoe. You can also get tons of ideas by looking at the positions of the funds, who detail for you the tickers and relative positions they have in their portfolios.
Tickers you can get for free, and your own research is again for free.

So…why bother spending $ 1450 ? If you are really rich, this amount might not bother you.
There are lots of people to whom $1450 isn’t that much, you have to remember the newsletter publishers want to get these people even if you are not one of them.

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Karen
Irregular
May 1, 2016 10:11 pm

Dear frahman, thank you so much! Looks like I will be very busy. I want to learn and try to take care of our own money we have worked hard to earn. Of course I am antsy anticipating doing this. I made a notebook and have been looking every morning on Yahoo finance to see where each of my positions are, so hopefully I will be able to catch a falling stock if it isn’t one I want to keep and sell immediately. I have read that it isn’t good to do a trailing stop on my brokerage account, seems like newsletters like you to SUBSCRIBE again to Tradestops! Anyone here using that service and is it worth the high price? I thank you for taking the time to help me become a better investor!

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arch1
May 2, 2016 2:57 am
Reply to  Karen

Karen When things are slow and volume of trades are low day traders that get bored will go stop hunting. They will begin selling until stops are triggered sell a little more into that to add to snowball effect and before it drops too much will make one or two large buys at bottom,which shoots price back up. That is often done before a buy into something to clear stops and gain rebound momentum to drive stocks higher. You can often see stocks drop a little just before they shoot up. Such gaming is perfectly legal and has the effect of the small investor buying high and selling at bottom. That is why mental stops are best, especially near binary events ie good or bad news that trigger price moves.
In my experience with newsletters I have lost far more by following their recommendations than I have gained from them. I have sampled nearly all the newsletters and spent thousands and have found very small value for the money in any,,,with the sole exception of Gumshoe.
Never go all in on rosy promises,,they often have unseen thorns. IMHO

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hendrixnuzzles
May 2, 2016 10:52 am
Reply to  Karen

FINDING GOLD INVESTMENTS AND PERSONAL ALLOCATIONS
If you are looking for good ideas, here are some suggestions:

1. Go to the Swiss conference website I referenced and check out the list of firms who presented there. There are presentations the companies made at the conference, and these firms all ponied up presentation and conference fees to present their companies to a sophisticated international audience.

2. Go to your broker’s page on any market cap gold fund or index, and drill down to their holdings, which will be listed.

3. Go backwards on the gold threads on Stock Gumshoe and trawl for tickers and ideas.

Now a lot of readers have asked about allocations. Here is what I suggest:
Step 1. Look at post above dated March 8, and ask yourself how much money you want in the sector, and WHAT YOUR REASONS ARE.
Step 2. When you have arrived at your comfort level on exposure, allocate the money between these ideas based on your reasons for being in the sector:
Tranche A…physical non-numismatic gold and junk silver, for disaster insurance.
Tranche B…gold and silver royalty companies
Tranche C…Big cap miners
Tranche D…speculations…micro-cap and small cap miners and exploration companies
Tranche E…trading capital

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hendrixnuzzles
May 2, 2016 10:53 am
Reply to  Karen

FINDING GOLD INVESTMENTS AND PERSONAL ALLOCATIONS
If you are looking for good ideas, here are some suggestions:

1. Go to the Swiss conference website I referenced and check out the list of firms who presented there. There are presentations the companies made at the conference, and these firms all ponied up presentation and conference fees to present their companies to a sophisticated international audience.

2. Go to your broker’s page on any market cap gold fund or index, and drill down to their holdings, which will be listed.

3. Go backwards on the gold threads on Stock Gumshoe and trawl for tickers and ideas.

Now a lot of readers have asked about allocations. Here is what I suggest:
Step 1. Look at post above dated March 8, and ask yourself how much money you want in the sector, and WHAT YOUR REASONS ARE.
Step 2. When you have arrived at your comfort level on exposure, allocate the money between these ideas based on your reasons for being in the sector:
Tranche A…physical non-numismatic gold and junk silver, for disaster insurance.
Tranche B…gold and silver royalty companies
Tranche C…Big cap miners
Tranche D…speculations…micro-cap and small cap miners and exploration companies
Tranche E…trading capital

Or you may just decide to invest in a gold fund or market cap index.

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hendrixnuzzles
May 2, 2016 2:21 am

My opinion on the newsletters is that none of them can be followed blindly.
To me they are informative entertainment and provide ideas that need to be investigated. One should pick a budget for subscriptions and education that are appropriate to your means.

I tend to look for newsletters with authors who have an outlook and philosophy I agree with. But the investment picks can be horrible and the sooner you realize that NO ONE HAS THE ANSWERS OR A CRYSTAL BALL, the better off you will be. These guys are in the publishing and subscription business.

For example, I like Sean Hyman and his newsletter is cheap. But his picks last year were dreadful. His picks were off 70-80-90 percent. But now some Hyman’s picks are ready to rumble. I love Rickards as a book author, but some of the picks he recommends for trading are atrocious. Dr. Kss in his field is better than all of them put together, he’s entertaining and educational, and his advice is essentially for free; and Travis offers the very best value one can hope for in STOCK GUMSHOE.
I love Casey’s outlook and philosophy but his urgent communications about the imminent demise of Western Civilization may be prmature, and I am not going to invest in his Argentine housing development unless ARTH hits $ 10 and ZFGN his $ 70.

The value is not related to the subscription price. One cannot say with certainty what is a good value, because we all have different situations and ideas of what we want from the newsletter. I just budget a certain amount for these services and let it go at that.

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hendrixnuzzles
May 2, 2016 3:12 am

$PVG…I am easily entertained and spend a lot of effort following this company. So I will post updates on it. Some things I have noticed:

1. The staff at the Brucejack mill site was originally going to be 900 people. This has been reduced to about 500. At the same time they have announced capex savings from the original construction estimates. The original figures to get the mill working were over $900 million, they are now going to GET IT DONE for under $700 million. These guys are building a mill, roads, power lines, a mining camp, and an underground mine in the middle of the Canadian wilderness ON TIME AND UNDER BUDGET.

2. Pretium recently spent a lot of money on lawyers to develop a shareholder rights plan.
This allows them to keep control in the event of a hostile takeover. Why do you think they would be worried about this ? I’ll tell you why. They are about to make a series of announcements that are going to send the company value through the roof. That’s why.
Such as what, you might ask ?

3. They just announced a new exploration zone in which the first six drill holes all returned intervals of visible gold. They have reported data on eight drilling programs,
but have not yet done a revised resource estimate from the data. When they do, you can expect a revision up of the proven and probable reserves. See #2 above.

4. They have computerized block mining plans showing on their website from 2013.
There are no updates to these from all the positive drilling over the last three years. But the mill says they have nearly finished the mine plan for the first three years of operation So why have the computerized plans not been updated in three years ? See #2 above.

5. They have some new drill holes that indicate a potentially dramatic new finds. See #2 above.
6. All their financial pro-formas and calculations were based on $ 1100 gold and
$ 14 silver. Guess what, these are not the current prices of gold and silver. So again, new
calculations are going to be published at some point in the not-too-distant future. Best to be long in advance.

7. They don’t need to raise money anymore, thank you very much.

8. Concerning new figures. In the Swiss conference, Quartermain “suggested” that he mine life is going to be substantially longer than 18 years. New finds coming.

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hendrixnuzzles
May 2, 2016 11:56 am
Reply to  hendrixnuzzles

$PVG…long PVG…impact of higher gold and silver prices
Hi everyone. Looks like gold is headed for $ 1300. It may go higher, it may go lower. But for a moment let’s pretend that gold gets over $1300 and stays there.

What would this do to PVG ? Well PVG is going to produce 500,000 ounces of gold per year starting next fall. The forecasts are based on $ 1100 gold. So with $ 1300 gold,
PVG yearly income after starting operations will be better than forecast by a tidy $ 100 million dollars ($200 price increase times 500,000 ounces).

On the reserve side, PVG has proven and probable reserve assets of 7 million ounces.
A revaluation of the reserve value at from $ 1100 to $1300 would add one billion four hundred million to the reserve asset base (7 million oz x $200 per oz price increase).

I have outlined my reasons for suspecting that PVG is about to make a series of announcements that will dramatically affect the value of the company:

The most important announcement will be the revision to proven existing physical reserves and mining plans based on drill results for which the data has already been published.

The second will be revised proformas that take current gold and silver prices into consideration.

The third will be announcement of new target zones within the existing claim that have the potential of multiplying the resources and extending mine life using the original capex.

Any one of these developments will send the stock price into orbit. Any one of them could double the stock price. And I think all three developments are likely to occur this year. This is the basis for my crazy-sounding fearless forecast of a stock price north of
$ 30. It is not at all far fetched to envision this stock going to a market cap valuation 2 times, 4 times, or even 6 times current value.

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arch1
May 2, 2016 12:24 pm
Reply to  hendrixnuzzles

This might be a decent entry point by selling puts. One $8 lot and one @ $9.
yield roughly $1.60 with price on underlying at $8.12 on the May16 that settles May 18th.
IMHO

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hendrixnuzzles
May 2, 2016 2:34 pm
Reply to  arch1

I agree but tactically the options should be your icing on the cake.
I would get get long. And in this case I am breaking my own recommendations by buying some long dated, out of the money calls. But the money is small compared to my core long position in the stock.

I bought some September 6.00 calls for 2.50. I think the revision to the mine plan and new reserve estimates will be announced in May or June. So I am paying 50 cents over intrinsic value to get a position that may explode by $5 or $6 on events that I am pretty sure are going to happen.

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jayneq
Irregular
jayneq
May 2, 2016 12:26 pm
Reply to  hendrixnuzzles

Pre-market opening, Gold was a tad over $1300. It will be interesting if it beats the gold high from last year at 1307.
Long $PVG.
HN, Thank you for all your helpful suggestions and tips… definitely find them useful and educational.
Jayne

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hendrixnuzzles
May 2, 2016 2:24 pm
Reply to  jayneq

You are welcome. I feel an urgency to be correct in my assessment of PVG for the sake of those who are persuaded. Remember the entire thesis is based on higher gold values, which may or may not occur. There is also a risk of government intervention in gold instruments.

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hendrixnuzzles
May 2, 2016 11:24 am

$BRIZF…long speculation…something is up. The price gapped up to 3 year highs today. Have no idea why.

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hendrixnuzzles
May 2, 2016 12:11 pm
Reply to  hendrixnuzzles

Brazil Resources announces NI 43-101 gold resource for the Island Mountain deposit within the Whistler Project, Alaska
PR Newswire8:30 AM ET, 04/18/2016
Brazil Resources announces completion of Geophysical Survey on its Rea Uranium Project, Western Athabasca Basin

It’s hard for me to get excited by a gold deposit at .5 grams per ton. I am in the stock for the uraqnium but U308 is still dead in the water. One positive is that I could visit the site when I go skiing at Whistler.

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investor101
Irregular
May 2, 2016 12:36 pm
Reply to  hendrixnuzzles

Please do because I own this stock too. Bought because of the positive accolades by Rick Rule, of Amir the CEO Also for the uranium source as an additional plus. I believe Casey likes it too. Should be very valuable in the long term.

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hendrixnuzzles
May 2, 2016 2:16 pm
Reply to  investor101

It could be a really long time for uranium prices to move up. I am long CCJ, UEC BRIZF, but these are speculations on the price of uranium and the sector is dead as a doornail. I have reduced holdings since I think there are compelling opportunities elsewhere. But I like being able to cover a complete energy sector with one or two stocks. and I don’t think there is a lot of downside at current prices.

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investor101
Irregular
May 2, 2016 12:32 pm

WOW!!! Can’t thank you enough Hendrix, Arch, Dan, Frahman…and all others for the valuable info and direction you provide for me to study and learn. I have been reading StockGumshoe a long time,I am an Irregular, but have never had the moxie to post.
I want to learn as much as I can to help us in our retirement years. We have an oilfield service company and fighting to keep our doors open since August, 2015. What a battle! Looks like we are going to have to call it a day in the sun. Have had to let people go and the ones still with us, cut salaries in half, including ours. Been in business since 1982 so it is very hard to just close it down, we are a small company and everyone is like family. My husband has given me the ok to take over the portfolio, and boy has that been something, the things these advisors had put us in shows me they took their share, put us in mutual funds so they could take their share and we just kept paying and paying and paying until I called a halt and said enough! Now it is all on my shoulders and I have got to do a decent job of this. Talk about crash courses! That is where I am at today.

Years ago I took $25,000 and opened the brokerage account, as a hobby and sideline. Didn’t have any idea what I was doing, but bought stock I liked and never sold any. Not having a lot of money I held very small positions, every time I look at the portfolio today I could kick my own self!! Would you believe I bought 25 shares of Amazon (because I ordered from them and liked them) at $55.28!!! I also bought Enron another small portion and lost all of that…just saying I like to buy something I believe in and would like to be long term. I don’t like getting in and out of trades.

I have collected mint sets for years, so I guess that is where I get my love for the silver and gold from, of course, I love gold jewelry too. In November I started accumulating some gold stocks and they are all up now, which makes me very happy. I am studying as fast as I can so that I might make better and informed decisions. I am so very grateful to all of you, especially Travis, for helping me in this endeavor and so generously sharing your expertise with a beginner that needs a lot of help. May each of you be blessed abundantly for your giving! Karen

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hendrixnuzzles
May 2, 2016 2:19 pm
Reply to  investor101

Karen, best of luck to you and your family. You have a lot of responsibility and it is not “play money” for either of us.

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hendrixnuzzles
May 2, 2016 2:58 pm

$PVG…A skeptic is converted….long PVG
Hi here is a true anecdote that happened this week.

One of my best friends, who I have known for over 50 years is a crusty, curmudgeonly, opinionated, skeptical, hard boiled, straight-shooting exploration geologist. Let’s call him Mr. Cranky Geologist. His background is mostly in oil -ferrous materials. He is an executive in Thermo Fisher, a great company and a Doc long.

Before allocating more money into PVG, I thought “…hmmm… I got as buddy in the geology business and mass spectometers, and I really don’t understand magmitic porphyry vulcanism very well. Maybe Mr. Cranky geologist would take a peek at the PVG deposits and let me know what he thinks.”

So I send Mr. Cranky Geologist some assay results from PVG drill hole SU666. ores. One of the new ones. He sends me back an email and says, “Look, you are nuts to invest in a start-up gold mine in the Canadian wilderness. I’m telling you as a friend, stay clear of this rotten business. If you got the gold bug then just go buy yourself some ABX.”

So I send him back an email saying “I agree with him in general, but not in this case, would you please look at this link to Robert Quartermain’s presentation at the Swiss gold conference?”

Heard nothing from him for a day or two. Next email was a thank you note because
Mr. Cranky Geologist called his broker and bought a boatload of PVG.

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hendrixnuzzles
May 2, 2016 5:02 pm

Investment style, diversification, and a benefit of Posting on the Stock Gumshoe threads

Hi everyone, I have found that after casting a fairly wide net in terms of investment choices,
I have had a tendency to consolidate my assets into a smaller number of picks on which I have developed, for various reasons, very strong convictions.

I think what happens is that I develop a more complete understanding of the company. investments in other companies become less attractive, simply because I do not know as much about them as I do the target, nor do I have the same level of belief. So for me there has been a tendency to become less diversified over time, with bigger positions in a smaller number of stocks.

Of course it remains to be seen if this strategy will work, or if I will be right or wrong about the stocks selected.

My biotech allocation is mostly in speculative clinical companies of the type examined by Doc. If I wanted to play safe I would have more big pharma. Right now in biotech my whales are ARTH and ZFGN.

In the hard money sector, I believe in having physical gold, large cap gold miners and mid-cap silver miners, royalty companies, and some speculative small caps and exploration companies. In this sector I have become increasingly bullish on PVG, and I am reallocating money from big cap and speculative miners into PVG. I believe PVG will transition to being a big cap, and I like everything about it.

Today I sold off NEM and put most of the proceeds into PVG. There is nothing wrong with NEM, it is a blue chip big-cap gold miner and is great as a foundational pick in the gold sector. But I want to be massively long in PVG, without adding more exposure in total to the gold sector. I consider the timeliness and upside of PVG to be compelling. So bye-bye NEM. Still long AEM and RGLD. My royalty stocks (SAND, FNV, SLW) are untouchable and I have added to SAND recently.

I took a SMALL slice of the NEM proceeds and bought long-dated calls on PVG.

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hendrixnuzzles
May 2, 2016 5:17 pm
Reply to  hendrixnuzzles

I forgot to mention: I like to post on SG because it forces me to think clearly about my motivations and reasoning for making these investments. I feel that if I cannot explain and justify the reason for the move in a public forum, then my thinking is not clear enough to be putting real money into the market. When I put out an idea and my reasons, I know that there are a lot of smart people out there who will jump in and play devil’s advocate. At least, I hope so.

Having no dissent is not a substitute for being right on the pick, but at least we can get the potential negatives out in the open. On any of these stocks, I appreciate hearing the opposite point of view if you disagree.

My whales and my perceived chances are as follows. I will not get shaken out of these positions until it is completely clear that the investment basis is shot.

ZFGN…Doc thinks the odds are very strong that the hold will be lifted. So do I. So I think there is an 80% chance that this stock will go up 6, 8, 10 times or more. It is already selling for cash value, how much risk can there be ?

PVG…I will be very, very surprised if this stock is under $ 30 in 2 years. I want as much of this as I can get. The bad things that can happen are that gold prices go down, or there is
government/central bank action to suppress gold prices or confiscate gains in the sector.

ARTH…my own thinking is that this is a 50/50 bet. But the payoff is so enormous I’m OK with odds below a ZFGN or PVG. There are a lot of things that can go wrong. But bottom line, I’m in for the long haul. Will not sell until it is priced in dollars.

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arch1
May 2, 2016 5:28 pm
Reply to  hendrixnuzzles

I cannot fault your reasoning. We are in a bit of an anomaly right now in that the Market and the gold price are both up. I think that is just a recognition of the decline of the Dollar as money from all nations is invested in the US. As dollar declines that should make market price rise measured in dollars when purchased in other currencies. IMHO
So this current rise may not be sustained for long. In the long run Yes.gold will rise.
Everyone has a wild card in the IMF and its manipulations.

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dan62
May 2, 2016 5:24 pm

Here is a link to an Elliott wave guy’s blog I like to check. He gives an update on all the markets. He is usually pretty close. No one is dead on all the time..
http://carlfutia.blogspot.com/2016/05/guesstimates-on-may-2-2016.html?m=1

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hendrixnuzzles
May 3, 2016 12:03 am
Reply to  dan62

I want to learn more about Elliott Wave as a chart tool. What is interesting is whether the phenomenon, if it is real, has its underpinnings in human behavioral psychology or in naturally occurring statistical tendencies such as Fibonacci ratios.

As I understand it, it simply describes fairly common chart results. So it is describing
behavior but does not really explain why it “works”.

If in fact it is just empirical observation of tendencies in human behavior, it is less valuable because it is founded solely on correlations without really explaining why the
charts behave as they do.

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SoGiAm
May 3, 2016 2:58 am
Reply to  hendrixnuzzles

HN if I recall correctly, DBMD is our expert on Elliott Waves. Best-Ben

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gard
Guest
May 3, 2016 9:16 am
Reply to  hendrixnuzzles

“No need to wonder why, we’re all goin’ to di”
If it works(now)then it works

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gard
Guest
May 3, 2016 9:17 am
Reply to  dan62

thank u Dan

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gard
Guest
May 3, 2016 9:18 am
Reply to  gard

Dead on is a contradiction

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arch1
May 3, 2016 9:25 am
Reply to  gard

Dead as a door nail means what??? Hint… Think clinched. Dead on arrival does not necessarily mean dead on departure. Still,,,dead is not living.

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gard
Guest
May 3, 2016 11:24 am
Reply to  arch1

Here here!!!

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gard
Guest
May 3, 2016 5:31 am

Short and long Nugget and Dust, just pick the right time

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hendrixnuzzles
May 3, 2016 7:02 am
Reply to  gard

Thanks, Gard.
For those who are unaware, NUGT (bull) and DUST (bear) are funds that are designed to generate 3 TIMES THE MOVEMENT on a daily basis of underlying direction of gold.

Because they are so highly leverage they are off-limits in conventional IRA accounts.

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hendrixnuzzles
May 3, 2016 7:03 am
Reply to  gard

Thanks, Gard.
For those who are unaware, NUGT (bull) and DUST (bear) are funds that are designed to generate 3 TIMES THE MOVEMENT on a daily basis of underlying direction of gold.

Because they are so highly leverage they are off-limits in conventional IRA accounts.

Say Gard, what’s your opinion on the timing, right now ?

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gard
Guest
May 3, 2016 9:12 am
Reply to  hendrixnuzzles

I am long nugt

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gard
Guest
May 3, 2016 5:33 am

Gold’s bumping $1300 and Black Gold is bumping $46.44 What a ride

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gard
Guest
May 3, 2016 5:33 am

I am long SRPt on the rise

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arch1
May 3, 2016 5:42 am
Reply to  gard

Look at the one year chart. Don’t let the $SeRPenT bite you. 🙂
Good fortune to you.

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gard
Guest
May 3, 2016 7:18 am
Reply to  arch1

Sarepta does’t bite in my humble imho lol Good am Arch
Serendipity. They looked to c what was falling off the end of the electrophoresis gel and low and behold they found……micro RNA. The master of command and control. serpent or god your choice u have free will

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gard
Guest
May 3, 2016 5:44 am

How come we don’t have a thumbs down 4 things we disagree with???
Not that I dis… w/ ….
Dow in Eu @ 17,830 …come on all u big string men let’s get up to 18,000 again
Come on AT MN atnm, u can grow again
Way down yonder in PVN (or wqs it ..g wiz)
Got his self in a terrible JAM
Way dn yonder in VIET NAM

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gard
Guest
May 3, 2016 5:45 am

BDM

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gard
Guest
May 3, 2016 5:51 am

Looking for a cure to the common cold. and schizamatosis Way down Yonder in the outback of Aussieland

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gard
Guest
May 3, 2016 6:26 am

b the 1st 1 on ur block 2 have ur boy come home in a box. That’s Time-dependent Schrödinger equation When the Hamiltonian operator acts on a certain wave function Ψ, and the result is proportional to the same wave function Ψ, then Ψ is a stationary state, and the proportionality constant, E, is the energy of the state Ψ.
That’s the cat-in-the-hat /box

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arch1
May 3, 2016 6:35 am
Reply to  gard

How is the weather in Alvin? We have not yet had the first snow of May here.
Did you know that the 1937 Galveston hurricane was the largest ever to hit the 48 states? In 1937. In Oregon a Cannabis proprietary firm has run the complete genome on their proprietary strains anticipating an attempted take over by Monsanto . I think insanity is only a matter of degree, Do you have a thought? 🙂

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gard
Guest
May 3, 2016 9:11 am
Reply to  arch1

1st I have many thgts same as u. Insanity is not sanity yes that is the same, but a contradiction, a not not. And yes I did know about do know about Galveston, duh, it’s just 30mi.s away. Go there all the time, an exageration! I have a had an Oregan State Univ. on my ass. lol
The weather here is the weather here, Cloudy cool humidovercast but the sun is out and it will evaporate soon.

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arch1
May 3, 2016 6:59 am
Reply to  gard

F**K was Avant gard at the time. Now for many it is just punctuation while thinking of what next to say.

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hendrixnuzzles
May 3, 2016 7:16 am
Reply to  arch1

A unique word that has many uses.

VERB…covers a variety of actions real and metaphoric besides coitus. Can be transitive or intransitve. “He’s FKKING up.” “That newsletter author can go FKKK himself.”
NOUN: “She’s a good FKK.” “”You are a stupid FKK.”
ADJECTIVE: “This FKKING stock keeps going down.”
ADVERB: “I getting killed on these FKKING lousy Turkish puts.” ” Get the FKK outta here.”
EXCLAMATION: “FKK!” “What the FKK?!”

Can’t think of applications as a pronoun or preposition. But having application in five different parts of speech is pretty impressive. What the FKK.

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investor101
Irregular
May 3, 2016 11:18 am
Reply to  hendrixnuzzles

Pretty interesting this morning and have had to have a lot of patience which is very short at this time! Don’t use the word in my evebryday speech , but sure could this morning with all these email alerts!! Moderator needs the ability to delete, delete….just saying!

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gard
Guest
May 3, 2016 11:29 am
Reply to  investor101

Patience is a virtue and being investor101 u need patience. Just sayin’
Wellcome to the ………….world of invewting

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gard
Guest
May 3, 2016 11:31 am
Reply to  investor101

delete delete delete. Preservation of capitol. Love the company, not the stock, they are all the same

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gard
Guest
May 3, 2016 11:32 am
Reply to  investor101

I’m at 10;32 that’s cst in Houston. where r u?

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hendrixnuzzles
May 3, 2016 7:52 am
Reply to  arch1

RICK RULE ON GOLD INVESTMENTS
A contributor expressed respect for Rick Rule’s opinion in the metals sector. I knew a little about his background and accomplishments but had never heard him speaking so I surfed a few You Tube videos to hear what he had to say.

One idea he had was contrary to my own investment viewpoint but I am reconsidering my sector allocations on account of it.

My viewpoint up to now has been that I want a strong emphasis in large cap miners, royalties, and mid-tier miners, with a smattering of speculations on explorers and developers. I was not really excited about resources that do not have near-term prospects for production.

Rules point of view is that the very biggest gains will be undeveloped properties with huge amounts of metal in the ground that are currently not economically feasible to extract. He conceptualizes the purchase of low price but aggregate high value
in-ground resources as essentially behaving like an option on the underlying commodity. The value now is low and one can acquire cheaply. But when the commodity moves up, the value of the resource explodes.

Rule explains that when the prices are low, it is best for the companies to DO NOTHING.
Efforts to produce deplete reserves at low prices, and incur high G&A expenses and reduced returns for shareholders. Essentially current shareholders are diluted.
Plus the resource has less of the commodity to sell when the good times come back.

His reasoning seems sound but I would be reluctant to allocate a really large portion of my gold investments into explorers and developers. I think for me there would be discomfort if over 20% of my metal holdings were in this type of company. Right now I am probably at 5%.

I think the main thing would be to make sure that the deposits are large. The bigger the better. It’s also good if the price of the underlying commodity does not have to move a great deal to make the project feasible; and that the jurisdiction and infrastructure requirement do not present unusual challenges.

It so happens that PVG qualifies for this class of pick, because until recently the MC was only equal to the cost of making the mill. The in-ground reserves were valued at ZERO by the market. Another of my speculative picks that fits this idea IS BCEKF. They have only two projects in Peru. There is no mill, no production. Just a lot of silver, lead and zinc in the ground, and one of the projects is tarred by legal problems with the government.
But the in-ground silver reserves are pretty big and the value of the company will zoom if silver keeps going up. I noticed a familiar face on the website…NOLAN WATSON of SAND sits on the board of BCEKF. Liking that a lot.

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arch1
May 3, 2016 8:00 am
Reply to  hendrixnuzzles

I am leery of Peru because of the volatile political state and the demonstrations /riots of the locals who see mining as antithetical to their way of life, I think $PVG has much more potential in a friendly environment. I just sold some Hl at a profit to buy a bigger holding in $PVG…..

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hendrixnuzzles
May 3, 2016 8:19 am
Reply to  arch1

Agree Bear Creek does have the jurisdiction issue, and scars from legal squabbles to prove it. I normally stay away from companies with these types of issues.
But the profile of the company fits Rules concept on in-ground resources at cheap prices, with no ongoing expense load to dilute shareholders. I’s just a waiting game.

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gard
Guest
May 3, 2016 9:05 am
Reply to  arch1

PVG has 2squaared or doubled since march and is really on a tear

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gard
Guest
May 3, 2016 8:27 am
Reply to  hendrixnuzzles

Watch out 4 them Royal’s they will take money from u. Long BPT mayb they can give it back? “I was not really excited about resources that do not have near-term prospects for production.” ad get rid of the nots and ” I am really excited about resources + have near’term pro’s 4 prod” elye am wrkin on +

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gard
Guest
May 3, 2016 8:37 am
Reply to  gard

I am long USEG.

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gard
Guest
May 3, 2016 8:29 am
Reply to  hendrixnuzzles

I agree on 20 &5

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gard
Guest
May 3, 2016 8:31 am
Reply to  hendrixnuzzles

I agree totally. hey if r=r’s then r=r’s

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gard
Guest
May 3, 2016 8:35 am
Reply to  gard

or r’s=s

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gard
Guest
May 3, 2016 8:38 am
Reply to  gard

and therefore r=s

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hendrixnuzzles
May 3, 2016 8:40 am
Reply to  hendrixnuzzles

Arch1…BCEKF…long BCEKF
Not trying to pitch this company. I have a small position but it was an outlier to my core strategy.

But Rules point is that the uncertainty and long lead time to get anything produced are actually to the investor’s advantage, because no money is being spent on operations, the present day prices are very depressed, and the ultimate value of the deposit is there and will eventually be realized.

I forget the exact reserve quantity, but the Corani project at Bear Creek has proven reserves of a couple hundred million ounces. No operations, no mill, no production. Just a couple of hundred million ounces in the ground.

For the sake of illustration let’s say the Corani deposit has 250 MM ounces in silver reserves. At $20 per ounce, this asset has $5 billion worth of silver in it.
Well, the market cap of the company is under $50 million. So you are buying an option on silver that does not expire, and the option has a real asset behind it that is worth 100 times the investment.

In other words, you can buy 250,000,000 ounces of silver for 50 million dollars. That is 20 cents per ounce.

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arch1
May 3, 2016 8:45 am
Reply to  hendrixnuzzles

In the long run that has a better than even chance of paying off. I am looking less for the the long run as I age. IMHO

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gard
Guest
May 3, 2016 8:59 am
Reply to  hendrixnuzzles

I am 67 will be 68 in sept. the 29th. the scales. And I am still looking 4 the long run

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gard
Guest
May 3, 2016 9:01 am
Reply to  hendrixnuzzles

bear creek looks like a p&d sor t of thing. Look 4 it to short be4 it moves back up

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hendrixnuzzles
May 3, 2016 9:05 am
Reply to  hendrixnuzzles

SOME FACTS ON BEAR CREEK…long BCEKF
Figures in example above overstated. Here are the facts:

Bear Creek has two Peruvian projects, Corani and Santa Ana. Altogther there
are 290 million ounces of silver reserves. Market cap is $192 million at $1.64 stock price.

The Santa Ana project has been subject to a legal dispute with the government, so let’s ignore it, value it at ZERO, and focus just on the Corani project.

The Corani project has a 2015 feasibility study showing 18 years of production at 8 million ounces per year= 144 million ounces. With $20 silver this asset will produce 2.88 billion in silver, plus substantial income from lead and zinc. Let’s call it $3 billion.

You are getting an option on $3 billion in silver, lead, and zinc for $192 million.

Bear Creek states in their website that for every $1 price increase in the price of silver,
the NPV of the company increase by $ 120 million. So an increase in silver prices of $1.50
will generate value equal to the present market cap of the company !!

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arch1
May 3, 2016 9:20 am
Reply to  hendrixnuzzles

… 68 is still young in today’s world. There is still time to learn many things.
After all what is life about except learning.

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gard
Guest
May 3, 2016 11:35 am
Reply to  hendrixnuzzles

c u @ 69 if ever a lol

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investor101
Irregular
May 3, 2016 11:32 am
Reply to  hendrixnuzzles

Hendrix, thank you for the expertise, I certainly do appreciate it. I really have always liked Rick Rule, think he has a lot of experience and guys in the field are going to approach him with their projects to finance, or Casey, or First Mining. FFMGF is one of my holdings as a long value play. I believe Marin Katusa owns a lot and I like him too.

Now BCEKF I also have that position. You are going to smile over this one…I bought because of the lady that had such a mining background and her friend the older miner, I
forgot his name. Well respected pair and the people sitting on the board too.

Watched Robert Quartermain last night and Thank You for that link. I hope to watch more as time permits. Agree with you, I need to sell some of these small miners I bought early and bank with him.

Keep up the great work and keeping us informed. Karen

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gard
Guest
May 3, 2016 11:45 am
Reply to  investor101

ffmgf 1st mining apr 8th took off. mktc 168M
Vancouver gold mining/finance flagship is “springpole” Dr. Chris Oberman ceo phd geogology, bs, ms. engineer geo.

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gard
Guest
May 3, 2016 11:48 am
Reply to  investor101

r u karen?
and her friend the older miner, I
forgot his name. Well respected pair and the
this might be a P&d du your du diligence

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gard
Guest
May 3, 2016 12:04 pm
Reply to  investor101

fell from 67 to 57 sense i.e. since this am

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hendrixnuzzles
May 3, 2016 12:22 pm
Reply to  investor101

Hi Karen, early on my DD for Bear Creek I saw an interview with Seltzer Mcleod.

I thought she must be one sharp woman to succeed in the mining business.
Then she started talking about the Peru projects and their problems. She seemed objective about them, the issues are real. But then she casually mentioned the fact that the net cost of producing silver in one of the projects WAS GOING TO BE A NET CREDIT from the sale of the lead and zinc. In other words the net production cost was going to be LESS THAN ZERO. I checked the pro formas and sure enough they have a 2015 feasibility study that shows the first years of silver production should show profit on the production side from the sale of the lead and zinc.

On their legal issues in Santa Ana, they have obtained a favorable Peruvian court decision and they have gone to international arbitration to get their license back.
So I think getting this back on track is a matter of time although I suppose the locals might continue to give them a hard time.

A clincher for me was the presence of Nolan Watson on the board. I went long at 60 cents and have added at 1.00, 1.25, 1.60, and 1.90. Got more today at 1.65.

If one applies Rick Rule’s idea here, you can pick up an option on $ 3 billion in silver (at $20 oz) for $ 192 market cap. And that just for the Corani project, it puts no value on the Santa Ana project. And every $1 increase in silver prices adds $ 120 MM in asset value to the deposit.

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faz
Irregular
faz
May 3, 2016 12:15 pm
Reply to  hendrixnuzzles

Rick has semi-superstar status and I have been an avid ‘fan’ for about 3 years now. However a little voice whispers to me that his very stature means that he can use speaking engagements and presentations to ‘talk his own book’ – most ‘mining’ people in the public eye will be doing that even while they seem to be giving us something ‘for free’. So, while I do respect his knowledge, it’s important to note that he is very very careful with his words – and it maybe for good reason.
In other words, always ask yourself (not just in Rick’s case – doubly-so for eg Brent Cooke!) :-
-what will most people have understood from what he just said?
-what did he actually say?
-what aspect did he omit and could there be a reason?

As an example, Rick gave a really good talk back a few years ago (on YT somewhere still) in which he gave out some ‘disclosures of conflicts of interest’ (some wording like that) which were basically free tips, one of which was Toscana Energy Income (TEI) who are apparently a bunch of really clever oil/gas streaming guys that Sprott ended up buying.. it was yielding about 11% at the time and I bought some. No surprise, they dropped with the recent oil/gas crash from the early teens down to about 2.5. NOW recently Sprott came out with a podcast ‘for their clients’ – but also sent to their mailing lists subscribers, in which Rick gave out a whole load of info about why there is going to be a massive crash caused by bad lending, in the oil sector, and how Sprott are going to clean up in the coming second half of the year or early 2017. In passing he also mentions how Toscana are experts at picking up good oil/gas assets in distressed markets.

So I kind of concluded that TEI is going to be a stock to load up on at some point, and I’ve put in some stinky stinkbids to try and get some cheap…. Maybe that will work out and TEI will drop to under 1 and then in a few years go back to 15.
But MAYBE Sprott guys are already loading up, because what they really think is that we’re at the bottom already…If THAT is the case, it certainly worked to their advantage because I for one have lost the opportunity to pick up some TEI when it was down just above 2. Who knows – I am dead sure tho’ that Rick’s analytical data is amongst the best there is, and I hope he is as genuine as he comes across as.

There’s one scenario where I do believe Rick is completely sincere with his tips – that’s when there is a horrible bear market like the last few years in Uranium and it doesn’t matter if he lets the cat out of the bag – when sentiment is so bad, he won’t be worried about his tips causing him to lose the opportunity to buy low. But, if the market is on the verge of turning around, and an investor who knows this, is still busy accumulating, he would not want to tip off the rest of the world, right ? Quite the opposite, he might want us to hold back while he’s loading up..
I hope this is somewhat overly cynical.. but fear it is not.
Best regards.

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hendrixnuzzles
May 3, 2016 12:33 pm
Reply to  faz

I agree that one must be very careful with specific stock recommendations from Rick Rule. He has potential conflicts all over the place. But there is nothing wrong with applying his ideas as a lens for looking at investments.

I am not touting any of Rule’s picks. I am just considering his ideas as I understand them, and as they apply to my own gold and silver strategy.

In the present instance I reallocated gold and silver assets from big cap miners to smaller mines and developers, based on the idea that buying resources in the ground cheaply enough will pay off dramatically with rising rising prices.

Rick’s observations were very astute insofar as administrative costs and efforts of large miners to produce when prices are low is ultimately dilutive to existing shareholders and harmful to future profits. Best to do nothing until prices go up.

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