#4_z$FLKS_ShoezThis thread is dedicated to shareholders of http://www.flex-pharma.com/index.php Enjoy!
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Seven Reasons to Be in Flex Pharma ($FLKS) http://www.stockgumshoe.com/2015/02/microblog-seven-reasons-to-be-in-flex-pharma-flks/ was originally presented to the Gummune on February 23, 2015 by Dr. KSS MD PhD.
This thread shall focus on the “Six Honest Serving Men” by Rudyard Kipling – https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WIn5CQ_XH1Qthe serving men of FlexPharma as it continues forward…
$FLKS…thanks for getting things going again on FLKS, Ben. And it’s best to have the seminal notes from Doc at the masthead. Re-reading good stuff is a habit of mine and Doc’s introduction sure seems as good as it did over a year ago.
So what has happened that changes the scenario ? Well, it doesn’t seem like a while lot, other than the typical investor impatience after the IPO. “The darned thing hasn’t made
me rich and I’ve been waiting six, maybe even seven months now. I’m going to go invest in Turkish put options, I don’t have time for these guys to take on Gatorade and Coke.”
So for me, first things first. Monday I have to get out of my Turkish put options and re-establish a small position in FLKS. Will look at the charts and report back.
Then I’ll serve as referee for the thread, unless someone else wants the job.
Thanks for the idea, Doc.
$FLXN, long, The Gummune is much like a shark, constantly moving, watching, listening. These are the comments behind the veil related to FLKS in the last several hours: Dr. KSS MD PhD, author of this article, says: April 23, 2016 at 1:09 pm
Lannas: remember it’s rather questionable whether Gatorade makes much physiologic difference for athletes, i.e., a difference that fruit juice wouldn’t make. Not so with Flex’s product, which really does tame the muscle cramping associated with extreme exertion followed by rest. And it does so without causing sedation or muscle weakness or interfering with any good metabolic process like lactate clearance.
Long $FLKS.
Lannas says: April 23, 2016 at 1:27 pm
$FLKS, Doc: I was mainly referring to Brand recondition and advertisement to the masses. If the NFL signs up FLKS as drink of choice then shelf space in stores will open up because all the kids will be wanting it. I understand that shelf space is hard to come by for a new product. Long FLKS and Dr. KSS
hendrixnuzzles says:April 23, 2016 at 9:46 pm
Beverage competition for shelf space is brutal. You need some really strong allies or really strong pull on a national basis that forces people to carry it.
hendrixnuzzles says: April 23, 2016 at 5:27 pm
Is FLKS of sufficient potential to warrant its own thread ? I ask because at this point the issue seems to be one of marketing and merchandising, not medicine. If this has really big potential like a Red Bull or Gatorade, maybe it deserves space outside biotech ?
Just a suggestion. I think the separation of the $ARTH thread worked beautifully.
alanh says: April 23, 2016 at 5:32 pm
It would be a disaster to start a thread for every ticker, but there are exceptions. This may be one. Its easy to start, and worthy IMOTO.
hendrixnuzzles says: April 23, 2016 at 5:45 pm
We’ll leave it to a Flex Fanatic if there’s one out there. I have no position, sold it.
alanh says: April 23, 2016 at 5:54 pm
Then your impartiality is best suited as referee.
Dr. KSS MD PhD, author of this article, says: April 23, 2016 at 6:04 pm
It’s reasonable to farm thread it, I agree. It’s neither a science nor medical play from here forward, but one of the dumbest things I did in the 90’s was sell shares of Hansen, the beverage maker, when they had appreciated 300 percent. It went on to triple again, at least, as I recall. Now I get a re-do of that story, I hope.
alanh says: April 23, 2016 at 6:07 pm
History repeating itself or woulda coulda shoulda trying to make amends?
sharonschreiner says: April 23, 2016 at 6:22 pm
Or just learning from mistakes…like selling Apple at 80 to take the nice profit from 20, not realizing it was about to go 10X that. Yeah, that was me.
alanh says: April 23, 2016 at 6:28 pm
Or buying RGDO as the down payment on my private island…. that’s bio
alanh says: April 23, 2016 at 6:30 pm
Ya cant win em all….in fact you’re a genius if you win 51%
frankw17 says April 24, 2016 at 12:13 pm
Sharon, I’ll go you 1 better, I got 40 shares
of the $AAPL IPO at $15 and sold it at $25 about 3 weeks
later. The broker wanted his commission for getting me
IPO shares. You talk about woulda coulda shoulda. Those
40 shares would have been worth a small fortune today!
Regards,
Frank
stephencmyers says: April 24, 2016 at 1:30 pm
For those complaining about selling Apple stock early, go read about Ronald Wayne. He co-founded Apple with Jobs and Wozniak. He was given a 10% stake in the company for solving a disagreement between Wozniak and Jobs. He also wrote the partnership agreement, made the first Apple logo and first Apple 1 manual. However, he was in his 40’s and was worried that since Jobs and Wozniak were both broke at the time, was worried that the partnership would result in him being responsible for the partnership’s finances if it went belly up.
So, Wayne sold his share back less than 2 weeks later for $800 dollars. I’ve seen estimates that his share would be worth between 35 – 60 billion today.
hendrixnuzzles says: April 24, 2016 at 3:11 pm
A senior exec in a company I was with was in an early round on Apple at ten cents. Eventually ran a VC fund largely with his own money. It can happen.
hendrixnuzzles says: April 23, 2016 at 9:49 pm
FLKS…if someone wants to start a FLKS thread, I’ll follow when I’m long. If no one does and there’s interest, I’ll float a thread out there if I go long.
Hendrixnuzzles says: April 23, 2016 at 9:51 pm
Here’s a nutty idea. Maybe NIKE would be interested in FLKS.
hendrixnuzzles says: April 23, 2016 at 9:54 pm
Can’t you just see Tiger Woods gulping down FLKS, supplanting Arnold Palmer’s iced tea and lemonade, and all the 7-11s falling over themselves to carry the stuff ?
A lot easier than doing a deal with Coke or Pepsi and gets Nike into a new sector
alanh says: April 24, 2016 at 7:03 am
Excellent. As you say, getting shelf space is key. So the thread wont be about the science, it’ll be about the marketing moves. That would be a nice change to study coz marketing eventually affects every FDA approved bio we follow and it would be good to understand it better.
dan62 says: April 24, 2016 at 7:43 am
FLKS I can and will give first hand reports from the field. Ha if it works with lineman we are good to go.. Pole climbers would be a good group to check..Half of them show up dehydrated as it is..
arch1 says: April 24, 2016 at 8:01 am
It is all in how you say it…. You get an entirely different response from a lady when you tell her she has a certain timeless beauty,,, when you are really thinking she has a face that would stop a clock……………. IMHO frank,ly
DLH says:
April 24, 2016 at 9:17 am
Timing and a tag line are key with celebrity product launches. Elin missed a golden opportunity to launch her own line of golf clubs… “Clubs you can beat Tiger with!”
arch1arch1 says: April 24, 2016 at 1:56 pm
BRILLIANT!
telcomonster says:
April 24, 2016 at 10:25 am
Bottom line is if it does not taste good then people will not buy it no matter how well it prevents cramps.
joschelble says: April 24, 2016 at 10:39 am
Tele- I disagree. If it prevents cramps, every pro sports team, university and high school in the US will have it stocked regardless of taste. It would be like not having tape or ankle braces as part of trainers gear for routine, pregame prep- readily available. Then as always, what is good for the sports stars will be seen as good for everyone. JMO – Joe
alanh says:
April 24, 2016 at 10:49 am
But if it doesn’t taste good, it changes it from a mass selling soda into a sports first aid kit.
alanh says: April 24, 2016 at 10:53 am
As a matter of interest, does anyone know if this needs to be taken in advance to prevent cramps or is it intended to relieve cramps by taking a slurp once youve got them. How fast does it act?
Anamorph says: April 24, 2016 at 11:45 am
You drink it before activity and it prevents cramps. And it has a ‘kick’ to it (from a kind of pepper) which is not only part of its mechanism, but I bet is ramped up so you can ‘feel’ that it’s working.
I am long $FLKS from last year, so still underwater. Have not sold as the product is not on the market yet. May add a bit more while it’s still pre-market.
I have to admit that this is a more cynical calculation than usual for me. I have filmed marathon and Iron man events and that research shows me that elite athletes *and those who aspire to be* will spend ANYTHING that it takes to feel they’ve got some edge. If you can come up with a running shoe that costs 100% more and offers a 1% (perceived) performance advantage, it’ll sell. (I am that way with prescription glasses: if Zeiss has a new lens coating, I’m in, take my money!)
Gatorade is old, old news. Flex is new and has a great marketing angle (‘created by a Nobel winning scientist!’), as well as seasoned marketers behind it. I’m quite confident they’ll be able to create a mystique around it.
Plus, in contrast to Gatorade…Flex’s drink apparently actually works!
SoGiAm says: April 24, 2016 at 11:58 am
FLKS long; PENC, following for years, Zeiss owns a large %age of PENC… funny Phil Knight was just on Sunday Morning NIKE… Best2U4U-Ben
alanh says: April 24, 2016 at 12:05 pm
Ana: I share your cynicysm (but we already established that eh!). Still prevention is better than cure from a sales point of view. I will watch the marketing and sales figs before risking my $ especially as I don’t do sports. But I do do night leg cramps….now there’s interesting….a bedtime slurp?
JohnM saysApril 24, 2016 at 1:25 pm
$FLKS, alanh, or you could try my grandmother’s cure for night leg cramps – an unwrapped bar of soap between the sheets. About at calf level, as I recall.
alanh says: April 24, 2016 at 1:30 pm
John: Yep, I heard something like that before but had forgotten….thanks for the reminder. Will try.
Lannas says: April 24, 2016 at 2:50 pm
telcomonster: You are right about taste in the long run, but short term every kid that is 18-10 years old will buy and drink it even if it taste bad if their sports hero promotes it. IMO Long $FLKS
SoGiAm says:April 24, 2016 at 1:04 pm
#4_z$FLKS_Shoez discussion available: This thread is dedicated to shareholders of http://www.flex-pharma.com/index.php Enjoy! 🙂 🙂 Thank U ZKSS 4 Z Best 🙂 long
>>>—Benjammin’—–>
https://www.google.com/search?q=sports+drink+market+share+2015&rlz=1C1SNNT_enUS540US540&espv=2&tbm=isch&tbo=u&source=univ&sa=X&ved=0ahUKEwiQpbH2pKjMAhXC5CYKHTqtA-IQsAQILg&biw=1366&bih=667#imgrc=QlAXlDTuKYZJrM%3A
This is a good shot of the landscape. 60 Billion sports+energy drink market, plus an equally large tea market. In sports/energy, Coke and Pepsi have about 46% of the market with another 20$ split among Monster, Red Bull, and two others. Leaves about 1/3 or
20 Billion per year up for grabs among the smaller players.
In the trade there is often a split between the sports drinks and the energy drinks.
I would think there is no reason for FLKS not to make a drink that goes after both.
In passing, I saw that FLKS has cinnamon as an ingredient. This is one of the flavoring components in cola drinks. No reason not to make it taste good.
It’s pretty encouraging that Red Bull and Monster have carved out 5% + market niches in a short time in the $ 60 billion dollar sports/energy market. These guys were non-existent a while ago and now have pretty important places. So it can be done.
If FLKS were to earn 5% share, this is $3 billion per year retail. Call it $ 1.5-2.0 billion wholesale. Say the margins are between 20% and 35%. This implies margin revenue of
$ 300 million on the low side, $ 700 million on the high side. Obviously a lot of possible slips between cup and lip…but not bad potential for a company that has a market cap less than $ 250 million.
Beverage industry…a few other things from the charts…
–the sports/energy class is a small subset of the beverage industry. Carbonated beverages are 350 billion, sports/energy is 60 billion. Water, teas and juice are bigger than the sports/energy group.
I think the things I like best about FLKS is first, the pure simplicity of their product, and the amazing team they have to make it a success. They just don’t seem to be the sort that takes defeat as an answer. Dr KSS also pointed out that “Legendary Fidelity Magellan Fund manager Peter Lynch put personal funds into $FLKS.” We’re in good company. Long FLKS.
Oh, and I meant to say thank you to HN for taking on the responsibility of this thread.
$FLKS…some basic stock data for those who have not been following along closely:
FLKS closed last week @ 12.43.
opened on January 15 @ $ 7.46 high 12.10, low 6.48, closed at 10.97
Since then:
hit a lifetime high of $ 24.82 in April 2015…MC about 500 MM
hit a lifetime low of $ 6.48 MC about 100 MM
slightly less than 18 MM shares outstanding
Institutional interest 60%
Short interest low single digits
Company pedigree per Doc’s article
Unnamed beverage not on market yet
FLKS…long now twelve and change…whatever. Money and mouth are in synch.
FLKS…http://www.flex-pharma.com/
Anyone thinking about FLKS or in it should see the website.
Doc and Sharon have alluded to the quality of top people in the company.
Both have understated the case somewhat. You’ve got a board chock full of successfull and high-profile people in research, consumer beverages, high tech, medicine, and Wall Street.
$FLKS – alanh says: April 28, 2016 at 5:10 am http://www.stockgumshoe.com/2016/04/barcelona-hot-type-will-gs-4997-make-gild-golden-again/comment-page-2/#comment-4775496
FLKS: Do children get leg cramps?
arch1arch1 says: April 28, 2016 at 5:20 am
Yes. At least I did. A bit of hot mustard applied externally or ingested would make them disappear. Folk medicine often works,,,that is why it remains. IMHO
OK, I read through the above list. Sounds good. Somewhere the Doc talked about a presentation to be made between April 18-25. Does anyone know anything about that?
Also, I did find a negative article about the stock. Has anyone seen this? This guy makes fun of the simplicity of the product: http://www.thestreet.com/story/13027146/1/the-absurdity-of-flex-pharma-ipo-2-spices-and-a-veg-net-86m.html
It was written way back when the stock had it’s IPO. So far, the guy seems to have hit the nail on the head, although I wish I would have invested back in January of this year!
Flex Pharma (FLKS) news today. Apr 20 2016
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/flex-pharma-positive-human-nlc-200100066.html
Cheers,Glenn
Feuerstein’s jaundiced view may have some validity and he may even prove to be correct. But I doubt it.
For one thing there are lot of FLKS backers besides NBA and NFL owners who are way more concerned with integrity, their own reputation, science, ethics, and other good things. Do you think a Nobel prize winner, a Harvard neurosurgon, Peter Lynch, the former CEOs of Apple and Pepsico are going to get sucked into and lend their names and reputations to a get-rich-quick quack enterprise ?
For another thing, a year later FLKS has actually engaged in an succeeded in a CLINICAL TRIAL for their formulation. They actually have provided an effective solution for a an UNMET MEDICAL NEED, albeit it is a need without the drama and urgency of pancreatic cancer or congestive heart failure.
As far as Westphal’s interest in promoting food as curative and beneficial, this is precisely the type of thinking we need to promote low-cost health solutions. The fact that the compounds are natural, hence unpatentable and “unprofitable”, is not not Westphal’s fault; but this is a root cause the medical industry must innovate with ever more expensive machines and compounds…they cannot profit from
folk remedies that may be more cost efficient to the end user and to society at large.
Last, let’s assume the worst and hypothesize that Feuerstein is essentially correct.
His interpretation does not rule out the possibility that FLKS may still wind up being a great success commercially. Gatorade, Monster, Pepsi, and Red Bull are all pretty successful in the beverage industry and do not have scientific pedigrees that come close to what FLKS is going to have.
Long FLKS. Concerning Feuerstein, when you take as many opinions in public as he does, some are going to be right and some are going to be wrong. On FLKS we just have to wait and see.
$FLKS #CEO, #insiders + one fund control 56% of the float via biotech 2050 @Biotech2050
:large
I took profit @ $12.80 . Have stink bid in to re-enter. $FLKS. Now @ $10.49 and dropping.
OK, I’m thinking about taking the plunge and getting in. I will look at the presentation tomorrow. Looks like a very low share count and rich in cash. Good science behind it and people backing it. Product coming out soon which hopefully will begin to bring in revenue. It’s sounding pretty good. THanks guys for the information.
I have a question. Doc said: ” It’s neither a science nor medical play from here forward….”
But looking at their website, it looks like they are actually doing phase 2 trials and have more things planned. Anyway, I didn’t get the impression that it is no longer a science or medical play.
So perhaps the drink aspect of it is what Doc was referring to? Aren’t there still science/medical aspects to this stock?
The pipeline sounds like it too could produce some real value in time if they prove medically sound. Any comments?
They are pursuing real medical trials for cramping. But remember the stuff they are trialling is a “proprietary” compund, it may not be subject to patents. And the application is not exactly for a blockbuster disorder, though they do classify it as “an unmet medical need”.
The scientific and medical results, if they come, would give huge credibility to the consumer product and it will augment the value of FLKS. But the consensus is that FLKS can be a tremendous commercial success, without proven clinical evidence of the effect of their compound, and that the key issues will be in areas other than science and medicine.
Gatorade, Monster, Red Bull, and many other beverages have had success in the sports/energy drink market, and they have done it without Phase 3 clinical results better than placebo.
Thanks. I certainly understand that the main upside here is the drink.
However, I listened to their recent conference call and they talked about applying for patents on their treatment protocol in the future and doing more trials.
It seems to me that they would not be wasting time and money on further trials if it is for things they cannot patent. Maybe a longer term thing, but from their conference call, it does seem like there is a medical part to the play.
one thing I was not very happy about personally is the price of the drink. I think they mentioned somewhere north of $5! Monster, Gatorade, and Red Bull have carved out a nice little market, but not with a $5 drink. I really question how popular such a drink will be among athletes. Only the rich professional athletes/college teams etc are going to use this. I think they need to make it more accessible to the every day athlete who also suffers from muscle cramps.
How do the rest of you feel about that pricing?
I did go long but looks like one day too early and am down almost 10% already!
If $5 was to high for a drink then Starbuck’s would be out of business. IMO
Long FLKS
I hope you are right. It’s just that you don’t see $5 drinks in the soda machine. Perhaps they are never planning on selling it like that or on the shelves of grocery stores. $5 is not too high for Starbucks drink, that’s true, but I doubt this is the type of drink you will buy at Starbucks either. Long $FLKS
My opinion is that with legitimate scientific justification for their product, the target market will support at higher prices than we are used to seeing. The drink will have prestige and the cache of something that really works. The target market spends huge money on expensive sneakers, tennis rackets made of space age materials, and loads of other overpriced stuff.
They can always lower prices if it is a problem. But they can’t raise them.
This is not your grandmothers tea and tennis drink. This is for those who push the limits, win the medals set the records. Those that exert to the limit and seek an edge to keep playing through the pain. The winning edge.
For weekend warriors you too can be weekend heroes without the pains you would normally experience. The WILL for that five yard sprint Thanksgiving afternoon to make cousin Clyde eat crow. Does it cost more than alligator wash ? You Bet but it is worth it if you want to win. What price for Bragging rights?
Stock up now. Normally $24.79 for the Six Performance Pak, Buy One Get One more for the same price!!
Just a sample ad of how this might be marketed.
Now do you think $5 per can could be sold?
Let’s hope it works! I’m not against a high price if it sells of course.
$FLKS – Serious, painful nocturnal leg cramps are something many of my family members are plagued with. As my mother aged, her cramps got even worse and near the end, and I was up night after night with her, trying to do anything that might bring relief. In our search for a remedy (she took quinine pills earlier in life but that has been banned) I realized that she was not alone in “nocturnal” pain. Nocturnal cramps coupled with restless leg seemed to run rampant among the aging population. We would have shelled out plenty for a true remedy. Will Flex’s drink not address this sector as well? Long $FlKS
From the biothread: Author: Lannas Comment:
$FLKS – Long http://www.trilogyei.com supplier web site
There is a new comment on: The Bedlam in Young Goliath
Author: arch1 Comment:
=Are you saying that Trilogy is the supplier of the flavors and aromas in compounding $FLKS? I just received the annual report for2015 and the company states they will begin trials in MS { Multiple Schlerosis) and ALS (AMYyotropic Lateral Schlerosis some time in 2016. This is in addition to sports use and nocturnal muscle cramps going on.They are using electrically induced cramps to establish a baseline to test their compound against..Plan to launch consumer based athletic cramp product line in Los Angeles CA Boulder CO and Boston in 2nd quarter 2016 so should be imminent. Info on page 5 thru 9 of report.
There is a new comment on: The Bedlam in Young Goliath
Author: arch1 Comment: twitter site for twitterites
https://twitter.com/flexpharma long $flks
$FLXN http://stocktwits.com/sales_js/message/55592062 … Joey Sales @sales_js 22s22 seconds ago