by DrKSSMDPhD | December 15, 2016 8:06 pm
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Source URL: https://www.stockgumshoe.com/2016/12/the-twelve-biotechs-of-christmas-one/
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Dr KSS, do you have an opinion on AXON or ABUS? I saw a limited partnership QVT took down 25% of AXON in October, and I noticed from the Insider Trade disclosures that some holders of more than 10% of that limited partnership are some big names in biotech. Both stocks appear to be stuck in a zombie flat-line pattern.
Hi: we’ve covered those in prior threads and there may be annotations about them on spreadsheets here.
AXON, in my view, is bluster of the most craven kind. What does better mean? What does improvement mean? Would you think much of my ascertainment skills if I told you, hey, as a result of an errand I ran for someone this morning, I am closer to being a millionaire…..but you count only $12 in my pocket. Something that infuriates people with common sense who follow the Duchenne muscular dystrophy space and wretched stocks like Sarepta is that the most nugatory improvement in a clinical trial (“pt can now walk 6 more steps in 150 seconds”) sets of a tickertape parade even though this is drug development at its most cynical.
“Tis the same with Alzheimer dementia. The real drugs that we need are those that interfere with its pathophysiology, slow its progression and reverse or abate its cognitive impairments. Instead, the FDA has been bestowing marketing authorization on drugs that do for Alzheimer patients what a cup of coffee does for me in the am…..perks me up, but does not actually alter my IQ. At best, AXON’s agent will fall into that category, but there is no reason to believe it slows AD progression or interferes with the pathophysiology. And thus to me it’s utterly uninteresting. Gamesters may make some money, but they won’t be able to sleep at night. I take pride in what I own and would not want this rubbish in my portfolio.
ABUS is wasting its time in HBV and other pursuits, Lackluster company in what is, for now, a space (RNAi) that has turned scary spooky.
Okay, what just happened to Argos (ARGS)??? [Down 66.48% today!]
Is this a “buy when everyone else is terrified” moment — or an “Ooops — looks like we got taken” moment?
The ongoing discussion has moved on to ‘The Rest of The Twelve Biotechs…’ thread.
As for $ARGS, the independent monitoring committee for Argos’ currently running trial recommended stopping the trial, for what is known in the field as ‘futility.’ As in: the drug is doing nothing. This is likely an end of their entire program.
KSS posted about this early today in the other thread, pre-market I think, when the stock had already tanked. It can be hard to catch those individual comments as they go by, but honestly this information was easily available online just by googling ‘Argos.’
-very small position $ARGS, down 70%, oh well!
Likewise, Trevena (TRVN)?? [Also down almost 43% in the last two days!!!]
Just wish to state a fact…Doc reduced his original enthusiasm for $TRVN ever since May 2016, when the failed AHF trial was announced. I believe he has repeatedly stressed his modified views to make sure all Gummies holders are aware of his altered perspective. I exited TRVN at his first warning, thus incurring only a small loss.
Those who continued to keep TRVN on their rosters must have had their own conviction and a willingness to take on extra risks. My sympathy for you still….
Hi, Dr. KSS: Do you have any opinion on the ARGS decline? Unfortunately, almost all of my investment fell today, and I’m not sure if there is enough optimism in the company to hold tight or not. If there is enough pipeline, etc., perhaps it’s a good time to buy more at a low price?
See the current thread over here, specifically page 5 of the comments.
http://www.stockgumshoe.com/2017/02/the-rest-of-the-12-biotechs-of-christmas/comment-page-5/
Thanks Scorpio for noting that for sicilia. I would add someone was commenting yesterday that of our recent long ideas, about a quarter have blown up, another quarter been static, and half done well. We adjust the “picking” algorithm and have tuned it to be the way it is, and if readers agree I am tempted to leave it there. First we cannot tune the algorithm to pick only winners…this is biotech and that’s impossible. But second, I want the selection mechanism to allow in a few wild cards, a few left field possibilities. So, even though one of our 12 Biotechs of Christmas has clearly bitten the dust early in the running, I am OK with that. My goal is to be excellent and not perfect, because perfection cannot be attained and because you waste time and make yourself miserable chasing it. At least Argos spun out at one fell swoop and did not do a Benitec. Remember folks, OUR LONG IDEAS ARE NOT RECOMMENDATIONS. I HAVE NO IDEA WHAT’S BEST FOR YOUR PORTFOLIO AND ONLY SOMEONE WHOSE SEEN YOURS CAN HELP YOU IN THAT WAY. In the case of Argos, we put a lot of weight into how the company is building a massive new facility, almost as if success in its immunotherapy biz was a foregone conclusion to its elders. I personally think it would be utterly foolish to buy more here expecting a reprieve. Argos is in a death spiral. And we truly never again will espouse consideration of a biotech with a Nobel laurate behind it: QRxPharma exploded, and so did Intracellular $ITCI. Benitec is based on Nobel-winning ideas, and was helmed at one time by a near Nobel laureate. David Baltimore’s CalImmune is failing at an HIV cure. Robert Lefkowitz’s Trevena is about to detonate in a negative way.
Doc For far too many history began when they were born. Your reference to Semmelweis and his persecution by the establishment over such a simple thing (to us) as sanitation, gives some perspective as to how far and fast medical practice has moved in the last century,,, a mere eyeblink in time. I was born at home in my mothers bed, as most were at the time. It was not until the 1940’s that most births
took place in hospitals,,, or that hospital births had fewer morbidities.
Your point about Nobel winners is well taken, as it seems a curse for future success. Everything is seen
through that screen of superiority and failure is incomprehensible to a laureate,,, which leads to many failures. ‘Pride goes before the fall” or whom the gods would destroy they ,first make crazy.
i think most who follow this blog do not realize how far advanced in thinking this represents,,, we are truly seeing tomorrow today , through your explanations. The future is impossible to predict with certainty and detail, but you have given us a chance to peek forward ,,, which is a tremendous advantage in seeing where medical care is going.
I view ANY monetary gain as a bonus for the knowledge you share. Thank you for your kindness and aid in our becoming better investors.
frank
frank – your last sentences alone qualifies this as an Honor Roll Post.
“I view ANY monetary gain as a bonus for the knowledge you share. Thank you for your kindness and aid in our becoming better investors.”
frank
re; stockpicking performance.
Doc–Just to clarify, some of the picks currently in my “implosion” category aren’t permanently dead in the water and may still recover–thinking of $TGTX here. $SCYX ran down and recovered, for example. It’s partially a matter of timing of purchases; for instance, for me $CUR is in the “outperform” category after just a few weeks because I stepped in at $3.00, but for others it is within the +/- 10% band. I suspect that long-term, your success rate is/will be higher than 50%, which is truly remarkable in an industry where it seems like 85-90% are priced for failure. But if we knew for sure that of the 12 Christmas biotechs, three would fail, three would putter along, and six would make money, everyone would be ecstatic and buy them all in fistfuls. And that’s where I think we will end up, statistically (currently counting $AXSM as in the first category from when you first mentioned it a few months ago).
Thanks. Ja, $AXSM is really misbehaving. Tempted to dump it until a bottom is CLEARLY in. It is NOT a junk stock, but certainly has bad manners right now. Long $AXSM, $TGTX, $SCYX, $CUR.
Doc I’m utterly convinced she has finally bottomed. It hasn’t moved in a few days after relentless downward spiral to $4.20 long $axsm
I had been waiting a bit, and was thinking the same thing as you, and bought a starter position at that price. Oops.
I went to the doctor and the doctor said, no more laureates jumping on the bed.
Ok, i am confused or something has moved. Just signed on to read the posts of the day, start at the bottom and go up and noticed the last one being 9:49am over a hour ago, so refresh nothing. So i start reading anyway and then i am into yesterdays posts, then Feb 12th. Im on page 19 of “the 12 Bio of Xmas:one”, so i go back a page then i am in Jan. Is there a glitch in order of posting, seems like jumping all over the place. Has anyone else notice this? Or did i miss we moved to another thread or started a new one. Thanks. Trying to find out before i let Lynn know if there is something going on . Thanks John
Johncolt – – welcome to SGS when a post/comment is deleted. The deletion throws everything off and what you are experiencing is the end result. It will remain this way until a new thread is started.
JohnColts and ALL the current biotech tread is: http://www.stockgumshoe.com/2017/02/the-rest-of-the-12-biotechs-of-christmas/ If ever in doubt of current, most recent thread, click on ZKSS’s avatar at ANY post of his, which lists all articles by the author in descending chronological order. Best2ALL ~ Ben 🙂
Thank you Kenny and Ben, was racking my brain for the past couple days trying to figure it out before i said anything. Thanks for clarifying. Didn’t know a comment could be deleted was it was posted. Don’t know why since it was already read by the all. Thanks again, love it here.
EDIT: Woops. Wrong thread. Comment deleted.
UNC study of prefrontal cortes, decision making, addicction,depression role.
http://news.unchealthcare.org/news/2017/february/research-shows-how-2018nearby2019-brain-cells-start-and-stop-reward-seeking-behavior
Incyte turns to Penn for a collaboration on next-gen cancer combos
http://tinyurl.com/goxukm7
This discussion has been closed to additional comments. The conversation has moved over to Dr. KSS’s latest article, which can be found at the top of the list on his Stock Gumshoe page.