Gold and Silver and Hard Assets after Trump’s Inauguration…2017MAKE YOUR PORTFOLIO GREAT AGAIN !
This thread is a continuation of several threads posted previously by the author on gold and silver and hard asset investments. I am still a believer in hard assets. I also believe we are entering a period of inflation with continued dollar devaluation, higher interest rates, and a sluggish economy with chaotic dislocations. I believe there will be a lot of uncertainty and high volatility.
PURPOSE My intent is to find and discuss good mining and commodity ideas. Gold and silver remain a focus, but I want to achieve a more balanced approach still based on tangible commodities.
STEEL and IRON ORE…I believe Trump’s programs will benefit iron ore and steel. Stocks in this sector have been beaten down terribly but are rebounding. I am long VALE, a Brazilian company which is the world’s largest iron ore producer. I have been long Arcelor Mittal but do not have a position at the moment. Anybody know anything about cement and asphalt ?
COPPER, ZINC, PGM METALS…My very best conviction stock is Ivanhoe Mines IVPAF. I am completely comfortable with a large single position in IVPAF to cover these metals. However other investors may be uncomfortable with a small cap in sub-Saharan Africa. So I think it is beneficial to introduce other names even though I myself am not interested. Rio Tinto, Freeport-McMoran, Teck, Turquoise Hill, BHP and others come to mind. Travis, our host, is long Altius Minerals, and I have been also.
URANIUM…I’m bullish but the choices seem pretty limited. My top three investment-grade choices are Cameco first, then Cameco second, or my third pick would be Cameco. After that, you are speculating on small caps, or buying ETFS or funds comprised of Cameco and some small caps. At the moment, I am long Cameco and UEC.
LITHIUM…I am considering a long position in lithium. I have nothing to recommend at the moment, although I am strongly considering Galaxy, an Australian company. And I like Neometals, also an Australian, but it is difficult to get from my broker, who hates it when I want to buy obscure 50 cent companies on small foreign exchanges. If anybody’s got a great battery play, I am interested.
POTASH/FERTILIZER…very interested but they all seem pretty expensive. There has been consolidation but I have considered Agrium, Mosaic, and there is a German company whose name I forget at the moment (K&D? K&S?).
OIL AND GAS…I would like some very good conviction picks accompanied by strong reasons and decent research. This field is so big, we could get completely lost just tossing names around. I am somewhat worried about price weakness in the energy sector but feel that it is worthwhile to develop a point of view on a few companies. I have little experience although I made very good money in the past on XOM and CVX. Currently I would be interested in pipelines, LNG, or any other sector that someone knows something about. In natgas I like OGZPY.
SOLAR and WIND…really not too interested. The results depend too much on politics, the time frames seem too long. But I am not completely closed-minded on it if you have conviction on something.
COAL…same opinion as solar and wind, but the prices are low and depressed instead of hyped and high-flying. I am still stuck with some defaulted Arch Coal bonds that my financial advisor recommended. They went to ZERO. Now they are worth a Starbucks latte and a pastry. And no espresso shot in the latte, either.
AGRICULTURE…very interested. A large sector but really not too many choices if you rule out futures, like I do. I have a few obscure favorites, but no positions at present:
WHGPY (Chinese pork processor who bought Smithfield)
LAND (Gladstone Land, California farmland)
INCPY (Input Capital, a Canadian canola, streaming model).
Open to more conventional picks like ADM and DBA.
GOLD AND SILVER…my picks have been discussed at length previously. I follow these pretty closely. I am long royalty/streamers SAND, FNV, SLW, and OR; miners PVG, MAG; developers SA, CLASF, MRDCF, BALMF, KNTNF, and LXVMF; and I own PSLV and physical bullion. I swing trade big caps ABX and NEM.
****
DISCLOSURES. I am a retired executive and an amateur investor. I like both fundamental and technical analysis. I am a medium-term to long-term position player and prefer to discuss stock investment in that context. Please no minute-by-minute reports that oil is now 52.50 down 10 cents and the Iranians may suspend Ramadan next week so you are going long until the afternoon bell.
I am not an expert in any of the commodities discussed nor am I qualified to give advice.
Everyone makes mistakes and I make more than my share.Sometimes I change my mind.
When I post, I express my opinions and my positions. These are just that…they are my opinions and my positions. They are not advice or recommendations, which I remind you I am unqualified to make.
Opinions and positions are subject to change at any moment. That is quite unlike the pig-headed and foolish political convictions everybody carries around adamantly, and which change only rarely for unpredictable reasons that have nothing to do with logical thought or reasoned discussion.
Because of this, political developments can be introduced on this thread only when they have a clear bearing on the commodities or companies under discussion.
You are responsible for your decisions, and I am responsible for mine. Caveat emptor.
I would like to operate in a friendly, honest, and constructive atmosphere.
As thread moderator I reserve to myself the role of referee, censor, arbiter, and Grand Poobah, subject to the over-arching authority of Travis, who owns the site and who has on occasion exercised his right to ruthlessly censor and suppress my radical blatherings.
This is a discussion topic or guest posting submitted by a Stock Gumshoe reader. The content has not been edited or reviewed by Stock Gumshoe, and any opinions expressed are those of the author alone.
For the aspergers number obsessed types like me, gold was $1234 at the close of trading today, and JNUG closed at 12.34. Not just the matching numbers, but the numerical progression makes it outstanding. I also hit a very important and actionable target today in my master plan, so harmonic convergence at its finest.
I’m starting to wonder if investing in $JNUG takes away from the actual investing in junior miners and explorers. Perhaps the way that investing in $SLV takes away from investing in silver bullion. The volume in JNUG is huge. The volume in the juniors, not so much.
Long JNUG, HL, CDE, and …………………………….some deplorables.
Nothing makes us feel like a genius more than gold heading sharply up.
It’s true. But remember the dictum: Never confuse a bull market with brains.
When CleanTeQ goes up, our heads will swell to the size of watermelons
and we can apply for MENSA membership.
If i knew you bought on the same day as me, I may have waited a bit for the hendrixnuzzles effect to wear off, and saved a few cents on the price.
$CTEQF – Clean TeQ has today featured in an article in The Australian newspaper. The article is copied below and is also available at http://www.theaustralian.com.au/business/mining-energy/robert-friedland-promotes-nations-role-in-electric-car-future/news-story/e419d49d8cd59b192cf045fde01cc508
Unfortunately this link require subscription and there doesn’t appear to be another door to it I could find. Here is the rest of the email I received from CleanTeQ;
Robert Friedland promotes nation’s role in electric car future
Matt Chambers
The Australian
12:00AM February 7, 2017
Robert Friedland is talking up the Syerston mine.
The $900 million Syerston cobalt and nickel project in central west NSW will be in the spotlight at the world’s biggest mining investment conference this week as billionaire mining explorer and promoter Robert Friedland talks up its potential to help feed accelerating electric vehicle demand.
Mr Friedland, the US-born, Canadian founder of Ivanhoe Mines, was the driving force behind the establishment of Rio Tinto’s Oyu Tolgoi copper and gold mine in Mongolia and was last year appointed co-chairman of Melbourne-based Clean TeQ, which owns Syerston.
The renowned mining entrepreneur is now making the mine the focus of his famously infectious briefings, telling delegates at the African Mining Indaba conference in Cape Town that Syerston will be the first mine developed to exclusively supply the global lithium-ion battery industry with nickel and cobalt.
In slides lodged with the Australian stock exchange before the conference, Mr Friedland said lithium-iron batteries were essentially cobalt and nickel batteries, with the two elements making up about 20 per cent of the cost of the batteries — compared with about 4 per cent for lithium. “Syerston is uniquely positioned as one of the largest and highest-grade sources of cobalt outside Africa,” Mr Friedland, who owns 19.35 per cent of Clean TeQ, said in the slides.
Cobalt prices are up 65 per cent this year and trading at a five-year high of $US37,500 a tonne on the back of their exposure to growth in battery demand. Yesterday, Clean TeQ shares rose 4c, or 6 per cent, to a fresh high of 72.5c, up 42 per cent for the year and giving the company a market value of $347m.
Syerston, about 50km northeast of Condoblin in the central west of NSW, will average 18,730 tonnes of nickel and 3222 tonnes of cobalt over its first 20 years, making its cobalt content a lot higher than what is traditionally found in nickel and cobalt deposits.
Mr Friedland said a global move to electric vehicles, driven by carbon pollution concerns, was likely to be hastened by a move away from diesel, which has high nitrogen oxide emissions that are significant contributors to air pollution.
“Electric vehicle drivetrains are forecast to become competitive with combustion engines within five to 10 years,” he said.
The growing trend towards electric vehicles has spurred graphite and lithium booms in recent years.
But Panoramic Resources managing director Peter Harold, who is studying restarting the Savannah nickel and cobalt mine in Western Australia’s Kimberley region, said electric vehicles were also expected to boost demand for nickel and cobalt.
“People have been focused on graphite and lithium, but cobalt and nickel are going to play a big part and I think demand could come on a lot quicker than everybody thinks,” Mr Harold told The Australian yesterday.
“There are forecasts the cobalt market will grow substantially and electric cars could account for 200,000 tonnes of annual nickel market growth, or 10 per cent of the global market.”
He said there were some forecasts a tipping point, where electric vehicles were competitive with petrol and diesel, could come in three to five years.
According to Clean TeQ, Syerston is the biggest cobalt deposit in a listed vehicle outside of Africa, with all key permitting complete and a definitive feasibility study scheduled for the fourth quarter of this year.
The company says about two-thirds of the world’s cobalt comes from the Democratic Republic of Congo, including much that is mined by hand, sometimes by women and children.
This is putting pressure on battery users, such as Apple and carmakers, to be seen to be cleaning up supply chains or using alternative sources.
Regards,
Investor Relations
Clean TeQ
$UEC – Shareholder letter and CEO presentation, “A corner is turning in the uranium market. You can see this in the improving price for spot uranium which is up over 40% in just two months. Several factors are contributing to major change:”
http://www.uraniumenergy.com/news/releases/2017/index.php?&content_id=619
no pos
Thnaks, Griffin. I hope he’s right. I’ve been long $UEC and just gritted my teeth and re-entered $CCJ Cameco. One big cap, one insanely leveraged optionality play.
$KLGDF Closed out my position with Kirkland Gold today. Purchased on 1/5/17, I thought their recent merger was good for a re-valuation maybe 30% higher, up 39.89% in one month. That’ll work every time, no strong reason to own the company at this price, so we’ll just cash that one in, and move on to the next opportunity. Great luck to Kirkland and appreciate the business.
In pretty much the same period of time, IVPAF +57%, CLASF +38%, SSVFF +34% in the 7 days I’ve owned it, AG +31%, all these positions opened this year. No intentions on selling any of these any time soon.
Long, in order of position:
SAND, RGLD, FNV, SA, IVPAF, CTEQF, AG, CLASF, SSVFF, MWSNF, TLRS
$CTEQF – Clean TeQ Holdings Limited (CLQ:ASX CTEQF OTCQX) announced today that its ordinary shares will begin trading on the OTCQX ®Best Market in the United States under the symbol CTEQF on Monday 13 February 2017.
The company’s ordinary shares will continue to trade under the symbol CLQ on the Australian stock Exchange
https://gallery.mailchimp.com/6b234a59bc4b0bc555986937a/files/26b4d36a-adf7-4557-95b6-ee0b37490a56/20170208_OTC_Listing.pdf
pos soon
.
That’s good news since I couldn’t trade it on CLQ!
Enormous global demand on way for copper, platinum, zinc – Friedland
http://www.miningweekly.com/article/enormous-global-demand-on-way-for-copper-platinum-zinc-friedland-2017-02-08
By: Martin Creamer Creamer Media Editor
CAPE TOWN (miningweekly.com) – Enormous global demand is building up for copper, platinum and zinc, driven by new technology, mitigation of health risks in hospitals and agricultural augmentation, Ivanhoe Mines executive chairperson Robert Friedland said on Wednesday.
In a comprehensive address to the Investing in African Mining Indaba, Friedland used statistics from credible global institutions and well-recorded technological advances to highlight major looming copper shortages, strong upcoming platinum demand for hydrogen fuel cells and the practice of adding zinc to soils to grow food, which promotes good health and renders the metal nonrecyclable.
He flashed on to a big screen graphics of platinum-catalysed fuel cell vehicles needed to do the main job of stopping particles as small as beach sand in the air of major urban cities, which enter people’s lungs, get into the blood stream and then go permanently beyond the blood brain barrier.
“In fact, the closer you live to a major urban road, the higher the chances of dementia and air pollution particles are definitely linked to higher cancer and death risk,” Friedland told the Investing in African Mining Indaba, attended by Creamer Media’s Mining Weekly Online.
He outlined how ten times more platinum a vehicle will be used in the move from catalytic converters to the fuel cell vehicle and showed a picture of a Honda Clarity fuel cell car engine that uses one ounce of platinum per car.
He provided details on four of the world’s top car makers bandying together to build super-fast electric car charging stations across Europe.
Friedland spoke of copper being used increasingly in hospitals to mitigate against the acute risk of antibiotic-fighting super bugs, citing bed rails, tray tables and door knobs as high-risk items that will in future have to be covered in copper.
He calculated that copper-coating call buttons over hospital beds lowered the bug risk by 527% and copper-coated bedrails by a percentage many times higher, resulting in all US military hospitals changing to copper.
“I can’t possibly emphasise enough how important this particular issue is because we haven’t invested in a new antibiotic in 35 years and this is the simple, passive way to deal with this,” he said.
FUEL CELL ELECTRIC VEHICLES
Friedland told of Daimler Chrysler, BMW, Ford and Volkswagen setting out to electrify Europe by installing hundreds of extremely fast charging stations for fuel cell vehicles.
Each charging station will have a capacity of 350 kW, which will be 140% more powerful than the super chargers proposed by Tesla.
In January, Ford introduced a programme in Europe and America that also allows cars to charge wirelessly.
They pull up to a parking spot and the cars are charged without plugging in.
Some 380 000 people have paid deposits of $1 000 to reserve Tesla Model 3s, which has a reduction motor as its only moving part.
The $35 000 car is extremely copper intensive.
Simultaneously, platinum-catalysed hydrogen fuel cell vehicles are entering the fray, particularly in the larger vehicle ranges and in cold climates, owing to fuel cells having proton exchange membranes that provide heat.
The Toyota Mirai fuel cell car has a range of 312 miles and refuels in less than five minutes and the Germans are following the Japanese.
Daimler Chrysler, BMW, Audi and Volkswagen are all working on fuel cell automobiles.
Large cars, like the Mercedes S Class variety, are more likely to be fuel cell driven, while small cars not required to drive far are likely to be battery driven.
Both are electric cars, except that the fuel cell generates the electrical energy for all-electric drive trains and bigger vehicles will all be fuel cell driven.
The Chinese are building trams that run on hydrogen fuel cells that take 30 seconds to refuel, emit only water and the Chinese are spending $32-billion extending the tracks over 1 200 miles.
He flashed up a picture of a German passenger train with a hydrogen fuel cell that gives it a 500-mile range.
“These sorts of zero-pollution mass transportation vehicles will rely on the platinum that comes from South Africa,” he said.
The Japanese will begin selling fuel cell buses in Japan this year and there will be a fleet of 100 of them in operation for the 2020 Olympics.
He sees platinum as holding the key to hydrogen’s potential, with a typical small car using about 30 g of platinum.
COPPER
Wind energy uses five times the quantity of copper per unit of electrical energy than the conventional burning of coal and photovoltaic solar power uses six times more copper per unit of electrical energy.
China, which will be investing $361-billion into renewable power generation in the next three years, is already the world’s largest consumer of copper, with almost half of it going into power generation and the rest into appliances, transport, construction and electronics.
Friedland said under traditional technology, before the advent of electric cars and renewable wind and solar energy solutions, his grandson was going to consume 971 pounds of copper in his lifetime and 521 pounds of zinc.
In 2016, the world had a population of 7.4-billion, which is scheduled to grow to 9.6-billion people in 2050.
Currently, copper production is less than 20-million tonnes a year.
The introduction of electric cars to clean the air will require 120-million tonnes of copper a year.
In the last three years, the world has increased copper production by an average of 328 000 t a year.
From now on, the world would need 6.4-million tonnes of new copper production a year just to maintain where the world is headed.
But the mining industry was not even close to finding the copper to clean the air.
The industry is mining about 16% of the copper required.
RAMPANT URBANISATION
Friedland regards the phenomenon of urbanisation as the greatest social and economic transformation in the history of our species and sees it as set to continue for many decades, with profound implication for metals markets, miners and investors.
He flashed on to the screen pictures taken in 1990 and 2010 of the same Shanghai district in China to show the massive urbanisation that has taken place “in a mere 20 years, the blink of an eye”.
By 2030 – “which in mining time is tomorrow morning” – there will be 8.5-billion people on earth, with five-billion in urban areas – a billion more urban residents than currently.
In China, as of two years ago, 56% of the population lived in urban centres, compared with a lot less than 25% not that long ago.
By 2020, 60% of China’s people will be in cities, which is an additional 100-million people, rising further to 76% by 2050.
“So China is spawning gigantic cities, many of which you have never heard of, but all of which are major consumers of certain metals.
Many of the world’s cities have been enveloped in toxic smog, which is clouding the future of the urbanising earth.
Outdoor air pollution is linked to three-million fatalities a year.
Ambient air is now the greatest environmental risk to health, according to the United Nations World Health Organisation.
In Asian cities, one in seven children live with high levels of outdoor air pollution and they are frequently plagued by asthma.
Air pollution deaths, according to the World Bank, are costing the global economy five-trillion dollars a year.
Friedland provided BBC video footage of giant toxic air-pollution clouds in Beijing and noted how this results in tiny 2.5 micron particulates entering deep into the respiratory system of people.
He cited most recent studies as revealing increasingly greater danger from prolonged exposure to air pollution, with links to the incidence of strokes, and mental illness in children.
Tiny magnetite particles from motor vehicle pollution are now reported as having a direct link to Alzheimer’s disease and dementia in older people, according to research published in The Lancet British medical journal.
This is generically related to the problem of global warming but not just something that will make lives more unpleasant in 20 or 100 years when the temperature of the earth rises two or three degrees.
“This is a related problem that will kill you right now if you live in a city that has this air pollution,” he warned, adding that this is not limited to China, but is basically a global phenomenon that implicates cities across the world.
Long Ivanhoe.
Long Clean TeQ.
Couldn’t find this on their website so as to provide a link.
$NMEKF –
Nemaska Lithium Inc.
February 8, 2017
Nemaska Lithium Successfully Commissions the Electrolysis Cell at its Phase 1 Plant
QUÉBEC CITY, QUÉBEC–(Marketwired – Feb. 8, 2017) – Nemaska Lithium Inc. (“Nemaska Lithium” or the “Corporation”) (TSX:NMX)(OTCQX:NMKEF) announced today that it has successfully commissioned the electrolysis cell of its Phase 1 plant in Shawinigan. Nemaska Lithium continues to make significant progress on construction and commissioning of the Phase 1 Plant. Below are the steps that have been completed to date as well as upcoming steps:
Step 1 – Pressure Testing and Electrical Systems Start-up
The auxiliary systems, piping, holding tanks, etc. have all been pressure-tested using compressed air and water. Systems have performed as expected. Electrical systems have been commissioned.
Step 2 – Membrane Electrolysis Start-Up
The Corporation has begun feeding the electrolysis cell with synthetic lithium sulphate in a closed loop system. The electrolysis cell is successfully converting lithium sulfate solution into lithium hydroxide solution on a continuous basis.
Step 3 – Phase 1 Plant Ramp-up
The next step is to produce lithium hydroxide from lithium sulphate solution provided by a client. This will test the impurity removal systems and the electrolysis cells’ handling of this material, as well as the crystallization process.
Step 4 – Lithium Hydroxide Samples to a customer
Initial samples of lithium hydroxide are expected to be sent to a customer in Q1 2017 for quality control purposes and evaluation.
Step 5 – Lithium Hydroxide from Whabouchi Concentrate
The Corporation intends to start processing spodumene concentrate from the Whabouchi Mine into lithium hydroxide samples in Q2 2017 after the commissioning of the calcination and roasting section of the process. These samples will be sent to numerous potential customers globally.
“The successful commissioning of the electrolysis cell clearly demonstrates the core patented technology that we developed to produce lithium hydroxide using commercial scale equipment,” said Guy Bourassa, President and CEO of Nemaska Lithium. “We are using a synthetic lithium sulphate solution to begin the commissioning as we believe it is the best way to start the system. As we log hours on the electrolysis cell we will expand the commissioning to include the other sections of the Hydromet plant, including our patented impurity removals systems. This step will use commercial lithium sulphate solution and should demonstrate the system’s ability to produce lithium hydroxide monohydrate from a less pristine material.”
For an up-close look at the progress being made at the Whabouchi Lithium Mine and Shawinigan Phase 1 Plant, join Guy Bourassa, President and CEO, as he gives you a tour of the facilities under construction and discusses the Corporation’s milestones for 2017. https://vimeo.com/202417527
$CTEQF – BW Equities has updated their research report on CLQ to a BUY with a price target of $1.31 per share.
https://gallery.mailchimp.com/6b234a59bc4b0bc555986937a/files/0b3a51bd-ec25-442f-9ff1-e2ff9e4ab985/BW_CLQ_update_7th_Feb_2017.pdf
no pos
The quote on Scottrade today was bid $.57 and the ask was $.335
What’s up with that. And when I put in a $.57 bid the site freaks warning I am over5% of asked!
what ticker?
CTEQF
You could run a small order at “market” and see if it fills. My guess is it will not fill…the ask is probably their last ask from a few weeks ago when it was in the 30s.
CTEQF closed around 58 cents today.
I did give that a try:) to no avail.
On a side note, I just got my first thumbs down! I feel I belong!!
$CTEQF…it is a pretty obscure ticker, my main broker
RW Baird could not even call it up on their terminals til this week. It is now appearing as of yesterday, I suppose because CleanTeQ is graduating from the pink sheets on the OTC. I purchased through Schwab.
There, there, wn, wipe your tears; I made it all better.
Mumsie
You are the bees knees! DD
You are the bees knees Mumsie
$CTEQF: I had the same issue with Scottrade on Monday, but I was able to confirm my order anyways and make the purchase. Hope you were able to pick some up.
Louis James “Red Gold” Teaser…Pretium Resources…one can tell in a few minutes it is Pretium PVG. For the heck of it, I decided to listen to the pitch, which for the most part is accurate. However some interesting points were made by James.
First, James claims he was at the mine, and in one of the shafts saw with his own eyes a vein of gold that started thumb width, but widened out to be as thick as his thigh. This supports my speculation that Brucejack will exceed published estimates on mine life, quantity, and grade.
Second, in his subscription offer he teases s small explorer with claims near to the Brucejack/Pretium mine. This probably refers to either
SA Seabridge, or CLASF Colorado Resources, or Skeena. Of these I am long
SA and CLASF. No position on Skeena, although since he refers to a “sliver”, Skeena cannot be ruled out.
Cash into Ivan.
https://mail.google.com/mail/u/0/#inbox/15a1fe005e317e85
A couple of years ago the Chinese gold miner Zijin Mining acquired an equal position to Ivanhoe on the Kamoa project for $ 400+ million. Looks like a pretty astute deal for them, since Ivanhoe now has a market cap of $2.5 billion.
SAND http://seekingalpha.com/article/4044052-sandstorm-gold-excellent-news
Reading between the lines…Louis James on the Pretium teaser…
As members of the general public, we are at a disadvantage compared to insiders and professionals on a lot of pertinent information. To compensate, we have to look and listen very closely at details, and try to understand their meaning.
I have found myself looking very closely at what people say and what they do, not only in public statements, but when they are in situations where they are not as rigorous as they would be when making formal public statement. And voluntary action is very meaningful. Of course, one must be on guard against wishful thinking. But one must also be a detective. After all, this site is called “Stock Gumshoe”.
My analysis and due diligence on PVG has several such inferences from observations, which could not appear in public “hard”
information. An example of this was an interview with Robert Quartermain, who in a casual setting, said that the Brucejack mine life was going to be way longer than the 18 years in the formal PEAs. He said, paraphrasing: “The mine is going to be around a lot longer than 18 years. We are going to be mining there a long time.” Now Quartermain cannot say this in an official release; but there are his true feelings, he is credible, and he is the one who ought to know.
So, data or no data, I came to the strong opinion that Brucejack was going to be better than the published studies.
Quartermain did not say, “It might be better than we think.”
He did not say, “We are hoping, there is a chance it will be better. ”
He did not say, “We have a lot of other promising targets.”
He said flat-out that Brucejack was going to exceed the mine life figures in PEA.
Such an incident has arisen from the Louis James teaser.
Here are some known facts about Pretium:
**The underground work at Brucejack has mostly been done.
**They have stockpiled a large amount of ore; they are ready with a three year block plan.
**They came in higher on their initial costs, but are opening months early. They are full speed ahead, after being very vague
through January on exactly when in 2017 they would be operational.
**Pretium has been inviting guests in the investment community
up to Brucejack for presentations.
OK. These are facts. Then this week I see the teaser on PVG by Louis James; and he says he saw underground, with his own eyes, a vein of gold as thick as his thigh.
Now Pretium did not happen to discover this vein after Louis James arrived on his junket. Pretium knew about the vein beforehand,
though we cannot be sure when exactly they discovered it, or how. For all we know, it was an accident when they were digging the access ramps. . But it was long enough ago that they had time to invite Louis James and Van Eck and god-knows-who else up to British Columbia; there was enough time for invited ones to schedule and make the trip; then James et al came back and wrote promotional pieces, which it got edited and proofread, and then we got them in our email in-baskets.
My conclusion is that Pretium has known they have a bonanza for several months. They did not need to announce it. What for ? They already have the PEA, the mine plan, everything is in place.
They are not going to do a revised resource estimate.
I speculate that they discovered that the mine is going to exceed published expectations. They knew the mine is going to be an outrageous home run. They decided to invite the key opinion makers up there, and most importantly they decided to go all-out to get the mine operating as soon as possible, even though it was going to cost them another $150 million and put them over their long-standing cost forecasts. They did not dilly-dally waiting to see if gold went up. They just floored the accelerator to get open…cost overruns be damned.
All together, I believe that there is an excellent chance that Brucejack will exceed expectatons and forecasts.
Long $PVG, pouring gold in the next 10 weeks.
Do you know how exciting it is, commissioning the mill and pouring the first gold bar? (rhetorical question) Takes me back to our Newmont Mining days at Telfer in the Great Sandy Desert of Western Australia.
How do we get an invite to the mine site to witness the big event when we’re not investors?
Penny – also long $PVG
just got this going to read now
$PVG – Pretivm Prices Offering of Convertible Senior Subordinated Notes
http://www.pretivm.com/news/news-details/2017/Pretivm-Prices-Offering-of-Convertible-Senior-Subordinated-Notes/default.aspx
Convertible at $16.00. Wonder what they need the money for.
This was sent to me this morn by Uranium Energy Corp.
$UEC –
Uranium Energy Corp.
UEC: Price: $1.58; Market Cap (M): $214
Rating: Buy; Price Target: $4.20
Heiko F. Ihle, CFA
Jake Sekelsky
2017 Outlook; Gearing Up for Higher Uranium Prices; Reiterate Buy
Click here for complete report and disclosures
On February 7, 2017, Uranium Energy Corp announced its 2017 outlook. We note that over the last few months uranium prices have rebounded strongly from lows of below $19.00 per pound to over $26.00 per pound. Given that UEC remains fully exposed to spot prices, this price improvement should have a direct impact on earnings once the firm restarts production. That said, for now management has committed to preserving its uranium resource in the ground during this period of historically low prices. We remain supporters of this strategy, as UEC has significant infrastructure in place to quickly ramp up production as prudent, including a full suite of assets such as a fully permitted processing plant and well-advanced projects.
Strong balance sheet to allow for opportunistic approach. On January 20, 2017, UEC closed an oversubscribed $26.0 million equity raise. We highlight that the capital raise was upsized from $10.0 million due to high demand. We view the upsized placement as not only a vote of confidence for the uranium sector, but also as a testament to the investment community’s support for UEC’s management team and strategy. Given the firm’s strong balance sheet, we feel further opportunistic acquisitions could be made for the right price. As an example, in March of 2016 the firm purchased a titanium asset in Paraguay, which we expect to receive greater visibility over the next few quarters. In short, we think management’s track record of purchasing assets for minimal cash outlay and extracting value from the neglected properties should continue to manifest itself while the uranium price recovery continues.
We believe a perfect storm could be brewing in the uranium market. In our view, supply, demand, and political forces could contribute towards continued positive price movement for uranium. The first major production cut came in 1Q17-and we believe this may be followed by more cuts. Kazatamprom, which accounts for approximately 40% of the world’s uranium output, announced a production cut of 10%, resulting in a decrease in worldwide uranium supply of approximately 4%. Moreover, the demand side of the equation remains strong as a total of 60 new reactors are being constructed. In our opinion, the driving force behind the nuclear renaissance here in the United States may be the recent change in Administration that appears to be focused on sourcing energy needs from within our borders. Given that the United States imports approximately 95% of its uranium, we think UEC is well positioned to potentially serve as a strategic source of uranium for U.S. energy requirements going forward.
We are reiterating our Buy rating and $4.20 per share price target on UEC. Our valuation is based on a DCF of future operations utilizing an 8.0% discount rate. To this, we add in-situ value for UEC’s significant resources in the ground coupled with a flat $25.0 million valuation for the firm’s exploratory-stage assets. We continue to view UEC as a leveraged play on increasing uranium prices and expect management to maintain its proactive stance with respect to further expanding its portfolio of assets.
Risks. 1) Uranium price risk; 2) operating and technical risk; 3) political risk; and 4) financial risk.
Uranium…I’ve read that most uranium producers cannot make money with uranium under $40.
So at $26 there will some relief for the miners; but even here there could be reductions in output and closures.
It is been a very long down cycle price wise, the curve up may be long and drawn-out. I will wait and see.
Small positions in UEC and CCJ, not looking to add just yet.
$KNTNF – K92 Commences Major Exploration Program
http://www.skanderbegcapital.com/k92-mining/k92-commences-major-exploration-program/
$KNTNF long
Would you buy a Electric Vehicle from China? Are you going to have a choice? China now has 46% of the global EV market by volume. Chinas only EV competition maybe who has the better battery. Tesla has the longest range EV this year, I would start watching the ads for miles per charge and time to recharge. All this is a lead up to another article by Matt Bohlsen @ seeking Alpo;
http://seekingalpha.com/article/4044471-chinese-electric-vehicle-boom-may-soon-accelerate?app=1&uprof=46&isDirectRoadblock=true
x post
Do electric bikes count as EVs? If so, the numbers are deceptive.
I do not know about the data cited, but electric bicycles are an important transportation factor in
Asia. They will contribute to the overall demand for batteries.
I did a quick search on electric bicycles and couldn’t find any numbers that told me what I wanted to know. China makes a lot of bicycles but only 4% use Li-ion batteries. I think an electric trike would be a better asset than a bicycle. All electric vehicles though EVs are required to be under some number of watts to be exempt from hi way transit regulations. I don’t see the Chinese middle class trading in their bicycles for electric ones.
Not with you on that. In a land with a billion bicycles, how many millions of EVs can you sell? For many of these people, it would be the equivalent of your first car.
I was in Hanoi a few years ago. A beautiful city; however, it was suffering from the 2 cycle Hondas and Yamahas that were the proletariat vehicle of choice. Actually, they were all that most could afford. Not chinese made, fwiw. I wonder if evs are making inroads there.
A link: https://www.alibaba.com/trade/search?fsb=y&IndexArea=product_en&CatId=&SearchText=li+ion+battery+bike&isGalleryList=G
I think that “In a land with a billion bicycles” works both ways. There are a lot of Chinese that are probably happy with there bicycle. I think a little manual effort doesn’t make a difference to most of them. There is not much difference between a bike with an electric motor and one with out. Your still out in the weather and they arn’t that fast. I rode a bicycle for quite a few years. I commuted 4 miles to work, beat commuter traffic with out a problem. One of the numbers I did see for electric bikes is a top speed 20-25 mph. I think I would have left a electric bike in the dust. One of the numbers I didn’t see for an electric bike was range how far would it go on a charge. Bicycles are limited on what they can carry with out buying bags to mount on the bike. I think an electric tricycle would have a better market in China than a bike. There are 2 things that need more information the EV Credits that China is changing this year and next year and the restrictions on electric powered vehicles. The production figure I saw for 2015 bicycles made in China was 28 million and the percentage that use Lithium was 4%. More numbers need more numbers.
Electric bikes will be a contributing factor in the coming battery bull market. They are not a make-or-break factor; it is just a factor that tends to be overlooked in conversations on electric vehicles.
In terms of vehicles, the category should be thought of as “transportation”., All forms of transport, whether two- or four wheeled or otherwise, will count. Bikes, cars, scooters, trucks, and busses. Gyroscopic cruisers. Anything that moves and uses a battery.
CDE is now down 21+% on missed earnings largely due to sales not completed in the quarter. Anybody buying? $9.41
SOFTWARE for tracking real-time metal-prices
Can I ask if someone can recommend me some good light-weight Windows 10-software for this? I’ve been using Kitco’s Kcast for ages, but it’s just too unstable for my plattform. Constanly freezes and doesn’t work well with my Microsoft Surface PC. Now I’m using Lear Capital’s tracker, but it’s VERY limited.
I would also like the possibility to get updated prices on all the “regular” base metals + Uranium.
Thanks
Why not just use kitco.com for free?
You mean in the web-browser? I want software that is constantly running with auto-update, and inside web-browser is not good enough. Like I wrote I’ve used Kitco and their kcast, and I’m on the look-out for something similar like this.
Hi chrizcringle –
Thought you may be interested in this site: http://www.infomine.com/
as an additional source of mining information.
Best2You&All
Thanks, Sogiam! Appreciate it! Will check it out.
$MRLDF, $SA, $CLASF…I bring your renewed attention to these exploration/develop plays. I have discussed them extensively in past posts but I think they are timely speculations now.
Long all, conviction picks.
MRLDF has a high degree of certainty, as the deposit is proven and a mine will be built there. After a roller coaster up, down, and back up, let us remember that Mariana has a tremendous proven copper-gold deposit, Hot Maden. It is under active development with a strong Turkish industrial. and Sandstorm Gold is deeply involved. Financing is no problem, they are full speed ahead. The stock has been quiet recently in its new home at a dollar or so.
I think the recent settlement of the price around a dollar is a great level to accumulate before more announcements or a spike in the spot price. Of course it would be great to get it at 80 cents but I don’t think it is going back there.
One reason I bring it up again is because I have become increasingly bullish on copper. One forgets that there is an ungodly amount of copper in Hot Maden, and when the gold mine is built the copper will be a major factor in the profits.
$SA Seabridge Gold…Seabridge has major claims with proven reserves very close to Pretium’s Brucejack. In my opinion, this is the Cadillac of development plays.
They will get more attention because of the ballyhoo over Brucejack and Pretium. I expect a “halo” effect, at the very least. The stock is near the top of its recent range, around $12 or so. Seabridge has a big resource, 50 million ounces, a prime location, and great management. Permits and preliminary studies are done. Major potential for a transaction in the not-too-distant future.
Seabridge is the proud owner of the highest Hendrixnuzzles Optionality Grade (“HOG”), which is my proprietary measure of optionality value
for developers and explorers who aren’t producing anything.
$CLASF Colorado Resources…Microcap speculation: After entering in the 20-25 cent range, the stock tanked to 16 cents but has recovered on no news and I am in the black at 25-26 cents. With the recent discussion on PVG, it is worth considering that CLASF has its own claims in the BC Golden Triangle. But what really gets my attention leverage-wise is their option on a large adjacent claim held by Seabridge. In the event of a major discovery on it, Colorado can exercise for $4 million the right to acquire a big portion of the find. Both Colorado and Seabridge are actively exploring the area. Colorado has a miniscule market cap and could go really crazy with a good find. Rick Rule and Sprott were into this big-time.
This is a real speculation. Colorado might never amount to anything. They might not find anything. But I think they will.
Long, full positions on Colorado and Seabridge, oversized position on Mariana.
Reader bonus: $SAND Sandstorm Gold…if you have made it this far, you get a bonus. You should know that Sandstorm Gold has a major, major position in Mariana Resources: 7.5% of the company , a royalty, and a Board seat. What is good for Mariana is good for Sandstorm. Check the Sandstorm website for details.
Large position in Colorado Resources Ltd CVE:CXO.
I have faith they will find something very interesting….