Friday File: Debt Ceiling, Gold, Fairfax and Ligand
by Travis Johnson, Stock Gumshoe | March 10, 2017 11:42 am
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Source URL: https://www.stockgumshoe.com/2017/03/friday-file-debt-ceiling-gold-fairfax-and-ligand/
So did Fairfax divest itself of all it’s bearish bets and is now a risk on portfolio or is it still somewhat bearish in makeup?
Watsa got rid of most (not all) of the hedges and deflation bets as of the end of December, though the portfolio may have changed since. It’s not necessarily “risk on” all the way, it’s still an insurance company that manages for liabilities and total return.
Nothing to do with this article, but Kapersky and Firefox have both said that logging into Gumshoe site is not secure as “Cannot guarantee authenticity of the domain to which encryted connection is established.”
What’s the problem, what should i Do? Cant do without my Gumshoe fix!!!!
Not sure what that could be, we do get flagged erroneously every now and then — thanks for letting us know.
My security coverage does the same thing. I found out from my coverage the URL address (Stockgumshoe) does not have http:// in front of www. The site is not secure is what I got from my security. I have had to quarantine many items after visiting Stock Gumshoe. If a person doesn’t have security I don’t know what happens. But if your on line you have to have security and is fee in APPs from where you buy online games for tablets and iPads are encrypted the government can’t even get into it. Remember when the guy and his wife shot up his work place in California about a year or so. Just trying to shine some light. FYI just came across this here Long term – Use HTTPS everywhere eventually, Chrome will show a Not Secure warning for all pages served over HTTP, regardless of whether or not the page contains sensitive input fields. Even if you adopt one of the more targeted resolutions above, you should plan to migrate your site to use HTTPS for all pages.
Any thoughts on smaller, more conservatively run NWLI? Price to book is half of Fairfax and has steadily grown book value for the life of the company. I have no positions but am considering. I would love thoughts on this one.
It’s a very different kind of insurance company, they sell life insurance and annuities as opposed to property and casualty or other insurance. My impression is that life insurance is generally less profitable than other forms of insurance because claims are more predictable, but certainly there’s money in annuities and other structured products and they would probably benefit from rising interest rates. Haven’t ever looked at that company specifically.
Thanks, Travis.
March 15, 2017 DEBT CEILING time. Have read several different insights on this. And have noticed from my style of playing in the DOW Jones. The last couple weeks the stock market has been moving in ways I haven’t seen in years.causing me to take 77% out. Should be an interesting week. Oh yeah Janet Yellen what will she do with interest rates?
Interesting read in one sense, not applicable to my investing style in another, but too each his own. I am sure it has not escaped most Gumshoe readers that Travis and I have very different investing styles which reminds me of the Proverb that says “in a multitude of counsellor’s there is safety” which makes a lot of sense, usually there are more than 2 sides to every story. There are not enough hours in the day, or days in the week, for anyone to be an authority on all aspects of the market, each has their own specialty and may be right or wrong on any given issue. Having spent 2 full days at PDAC in Toronto focused on resource stocks, (my specialty) i was able to visit less then half of the 500 exhibitors booths, but did talk at some length with probably somewhere around 50 executives of stocks I already own and have enough literature to keep me researching new firms for at least 6 months. The mood of 22,000 attendee’s was definitely upbeat after having missed the last 2 years because of health problems during what was generally a bear market.
I agree with Joe Mazunder, (sidekick of geologist Brent Cook) that exploration stocks are the place to be because the mature companies already in production have already experienced most of their growth and to replace their declining reserves they look to the juniors who are doing most of the exploring for buyout opportunities. Over the past few years that demarcation line has become more pronounced, in other words there are seriously successful mgmt. teams who are good at discovering new resources, but are not necessarily mine builders and prefer to sell to an established miner with expertise and capital to build new mines. In other words discovery and takeovers are where most of the money is made in the mining industry.
Working hard to get new reports out ASAP from all the data gathered, but it takes a lot of time to thoroughly vett a companies prospects, check out management history etc. and compare with othersin the sector.
While Travis may be right that a rise in interest rates and raising the debt ceiling may not prove to be a big deal immediately, but long term it does concern me because the level of debt in the world is already well past what can be serviced and defaults are inevitable and the biggest threat that looms is the fact that major banks in BOTH the U.S. & Europe have derivative exposure that EXCEEDS their total capital.
This is a time bomb that famous investor Warren Buffet has described as “financial weapons of mass destruction” and indeed the latest statistics I have seen claims total derivatives outstanding now total 7 X the GDP of the entire world, which can not end well. An economy built on DEBT can not survive long term, it has to be built on productivity and SAVINGS, but with the low interest rate policy of the FED there is no incentive to save, and arguably no ABILITY as people gamble finds trying to obtain YIELD in risky assets.
For all his vaunted business success, and I predicted and applauded his election, I am also on record as predicting that TRUMP will FAIL as a President unless he abolishes or at least drastically reforms the FED with its fractional reserve , debt creating financial system, a day of reckoning is coming and so far all I see is more of the same. More government borrowing and spending at the same time Trump wants to cut taxes, (which is a good idea on its own) but without honest money that holds its purchasing power that combination will end in financial disaster. The “Deep State still holds the Trump Card, (pun intended) because they can pull the plug on the economy and make Trump the scapegoat because it happens on his watch just like they did Hoover, who got the blame even though his policies were not at fault. These people, (International Bankers) are ruthless and will stop at nothing that is necessary to maintain their counterfeit money creating monopoly that enslaves the world to DEBT.
First you create the problem, then when enough people are negatively affected and desperate the bankers can ride in as the “White Knights” offering a solution, re-liquifying the banks with what Jim Rickards calls “WORLD MONEY” using the IMF’s relatively clean balance sheet to issue SDR’s (Special Drawing Rights) as the new reserve currency to replace the dollar. This would just start a new round of debt financing that continues to enrich the 1% at the expense of the average taxpayer, extending the Ponzi scheme in a new form.
The simple truth is that the same thing that makes a BOND to the bankers good (debt financing) would make a directly government created dollar bill good, with the natural resources of the country and added labour of its citizens as sufficient collateral. The difference is that “social credit” could finance all the infrastructure needed by society on an interest free basis instead of doubling the cost by paying interest to bankers for doing nothing more than printing numbers on coloured paper.
Thanks Travis for your comments about gold and the debt ceiling. Brilliant as usual.
Travis whats your take on rccmf. ????????????? new drilling method sounds awesome. keep up good work.
The debt ceiling will be raised on a Friday before a Federal Holiday when hardly anyone will notice. Result; All of these Debt Ceiling Sirens and news letters will fall silent and gold will decline $100 an oz. They will throw in the towel That will be the next buying opportunity.