Hi Travis, I think your newsletter is great and like your general analytical approach – I don’t agree w you on this group of stocks, mostly because you are effectively outsourcing on a high fee basis when you yourself are a good stock picker – as old Warren says, tough to make money long term […]
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Posted on December 15, 2020
Posted on October 25, 2019
This is a tough one - as I see it Nokia has two very good businesses, Software and licensing, and one really bad business, network/telecom equipment, which has always been a bad business. The hope would be as 5G margins lift it eventually becomes a merely [...]
Posted on October 25, 2019
You should check out TPB - don't know the names you mentioned, but TPB way down on vape worries, is a very well run company and has other good businesses that will be fine regardless of outcome on vaping.[...]
Posted on August 30, 2019
Hi Travis, what gives you confidence on Nokia that the current operating levels are a sustainable base, as opposed to already reflecting high telecom spend which will later decline? Cable capital intensity for example is steadily falling, and why wouldn't [...]
Posted on June 29, 2019
AGN has been a perpetual R&D disappointer. Botox SB ok, but the pipeline is mediocre at best, and stock is not that cheap when you normalize r&d (they underspend and compensate w M&A which they then exclude from p&l by adding back amortization exp.) Only s[...]
Posted on June 21, 2019
I still think there is a decent chance KERN options start trading over the next week or two, which would permit some more hedging - I think the stock volume could make it interesting to options market makers - one point I'm not sure on is whether it satisf[...]
Posted on May 20, 2019
On UPS - aren't their economics somewhat worse on ecommerce than on traditional drop off / delivery? Won't that mix shift be a long term burden on growth? Any particularly reason UPS over Fed Ex? Valuations are similar. PS - sorry for all the editorial to[...]
Posted on May 20, 2019
With Tencent, how do you get comfortable with the China ADR structure, where you don't really own an enforceable interest in a company, rather you own an interest in an offshore vehicle which owns an interest in a China based company that depends on the mu[...]
Posted on April 27, 2019
Nice summary on qcom and xilinx. With Nokia, are the sales recurring like qcom, or is it more boom/bust cap equipment cycle like the old lucent (or the old ericsson). If boom bust, won’t sales just fall once 5g buildout finishes? Or will buildout be so b[...]
Posted on April 19, 2019
Nice summary. Wish I’d followed you into QCOM. Doh.[...]
Posted on April 13, 2019
Fwiw, mktx, goog, msft, adbe, pypl, visa, amzn, nflx, pro, ttd, avb, tmo, CSU.to. I’d throw unh on there but think you can buy that today.[...]
Posted on February 4, 2019
Fwiw, this stock does screen cheap on ev/ebitda, and if they focus on free cash flow and share repurchase (as opposed to m&a), there is a fairly clear path to $2+ fcf /sh over the next couple years. That's obscured by very high depreciation, which is typic[...]
Posted on December 17, 2018
Thanks, I have followed you into this trade. There is a small borrow cost on the short, so that has to be considered. In general, what I think you are taking advantage of is the fact that the warrant underprices the likely eventual volatility once the SPAC[...]
Posted on December 16, 2018
Hi Travis, do you short MTEC and buy warrants in equal quantity (1 warrant to buy 100 shares long, 100 shares short?)[...]
Posted on December 18, 2012
BUD is number 10? If it is, his clues are off - isn't up 137%, and the price is too high for the Morgan Stanley 2 mil shares, $140 mil mkt cap - and Fidelity doesn't own that large a position as best I can tell...HSIC is a good guess, except it doesn't[...]
Posted on December 18, 2012
I'm pretty sure it's ONXX - would have to be in the $70-$80 price range to fit the market cap clues.[...]
Posted on December 18, 2012
Nice Job! I plugged clues in for number 10 - ONYX Pharmaceuticals (ONXX) is pretty darn close - recession resistant. I don't know if Morgan Stanley owns 2 mil shares, but Fidelity has owned between 5 and 8 million over the last few months, share price is i[...]
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Any particular reason you're buying Brown&Brown and AJG but not AON? Seems like AON/Towers Watson has a lot of synergies and going to be pretty powerful as it competes for multi-national business -[...]