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Very Interesting Gold Article that Changed My Perspective

UserPost

9:56 am
November 2, 2009


shredmonster

Member

posts 154

http://seekingalpha.com/articl…..ull-market


Be interested to know what the gold bugs think.

10:17 am
November 2, 2009


Will

United States

Member

posts 290

Interesting post!

A couple of observations:-

1. The writer assumed that the US dollar is going to recover….This is a big "IF"

2. When gold reaches $thousands/oz, it becomes a liability…This is a liability I would love to have. I just need to augment my gold collection with a bunch of UzzisSmile

11:04 am
November 2, 2009


Darrell

Member

posts 310

I disagree with this article. I believe the Daily Bell has reported that a new trading currency is already being used, SDR's, I think, and it is even being used by the US on oil trading with the OPEC nations, along with China and the Saudis. I do not see this dollar being respected for a lot longer, what with our trade policies, our economy, our manuf. output, our unemployment situtian or our admin.'s attempt at corp. takeover. They might be looking at the next Vermerk republic in their minds and/or working to bring down the US as the only World Superpower.

11:20 am
November 2, 2009


stockcrazy10

Moderator

posts 481

Another opinion….


"Gold Stocks: The Ultimate Options Strategy"

http://seekingalpha.com/articl…..b_articles

11:52 am
November 2, 2009


Will

United States

Member

posts 290

Stockcrazy:

This is the strategy I  had been advocating for the longest time. Instead of stocks, I buy physical gold and just hold them. I am also augmenting my gold collection with some mining stocks.


11:21 am
November 3, 2009


Will

United States

Member

posts 290

Gold hit 1080/oz today, an all time high. I was wondering why all the gold mining stocks were up 5~10% today.

11:24 am
November 3, 2009


optimism

New Jersey

Member

posts 152

Here is one of the big reasons Gold is soaring today.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/…..m.roGyeOR0

11:38 am
November 3, 2009


Will

United States

Member

posts 290

Yup! I saw this article too. India just bought 200 metric tons of gold from the IMF and other countries poised to do the same.

11:51 am
November 3, 2009


Darrell

Member

posts 310

India uses gold for the common citizen much more than most and I still believe the buying in Germany and now China is still going to drive the price higher. Has anyone heard the results, so far, from Herrods in England ?? Don't you love the fact that common everyday workers in many parts of the world can insert a EURO or whatever, into a ATM and buy a piece of gold ???

1:19 pm
November 3, 2009


Darrell

Member

posts 310

I did a little more reseach on India's buy and discovered the the central bank of India paid cash for their purchase. They did not use the "Special Drawing Rights" program, they paid for the gold with…US Dollars and some reports that the rest of the IMF bullion for sale, might be purchased with US Dollars…With China, OPEC, Russia and others using SDR's for oil, gas, metals trading, what does this mean for the dollar and our economy ?  It seems that as many folks that can, are turning dollars into gold, something holding more value, even with Buffet's action, the market has not shown confidence.

1:21 pm
November 3, 2009


Will

United States

Member

posts 290

That's bad news for the US dollar.

Lebed has this to say about gold:-


Jonathan Lebed to me
show details 11:07 AM (11 minutes ago)


FOX showed me last night during the 9th inning of the World Series in Philly!
 

 
I am not a true Yankees fan… I am a Mets fan… and as a Mets fan I hate the Phillies. I decided that cheering for the Yankees would be the lesser of two evils.
 
Ben Bernanke also had to choose the lesser of two evils. He had a choice of either allowing the U.S. to endure a much needed recession or lower interest rates to 0%, monetize the government's deficit spending, and create hyperinflation. He has clearly chosen the latter, which I believe was the wrong decision.

 
Gold hit a new all time high today of $1,085 per ounce. I have been telling you to sell Real Estate and buy Gold since mid-2005 when Gold was in the mid-$400s.

 
The financial crisis is playing out almost exactly like was predicted in the documentary I helped produce "Hyperinflation Nation", which has now surpassed 283,000 views. Just remember this is not the 9th inning of hyperinflation, we are only in the second or third inning. We have not yet felt the wrath of Bernanke's destruction. The damage being done to our economy underneath the surface is getting worse with each passing day.
 
We had everybody on Wall Street cheering positive GDP growth last quarter, but in order to achieve this phony number we had to spend billions of newly printed dollars on "cash for clunkers", which took perfectly good cars and destroyed them while getting Americans deeper into debt.
 
Bernanke is worried about the rising price of gold, but he knows if he raises interest rates the financial markets would collapse. He is intent on keeping our economic house of cards propped up, but it won't last for long.
 
A decade from now there will be two classes of people in the U.S., those who got rid of their U.S. dollars and bought gold and silver today, and those who bought into the false hope that an "economic recovery" was here.
 
There is no economic recovery. It's stunning that there could be so many analysts on CNBC who got so quickly back to talking their books and recommending retail stocks, housing stocks, airline stocks and other sectors that nobody in their right mind should invest in. They act as if everything that happened last year was some sort of a once in a lifetime panic and now everything is back to "normal".
 
When stocks collapsed last year, it was the market trying to correct the imbalances that have been building for decades. By bailing out financial firms that deserved to fail and wasting billions of dollars on temporary non-productive stimulus jobs, we have created the appearance that things are back to normal, but the dollar bubble has gotten bigger than ever and the real collapse has yet to come!
 

—–

 
Never invest into a stock we discuss unless you can afford to lose your entire investment. For our full disclaimer go to: http://www.lebed.biz/disclaimer.htm

Jonathan Lebed
Lebed.biz
Staff

1:27 pm
November 3, 2009


Darrell

Member

posts 310

I didn't get the Lebed post but he appears to be spot on !! The article I just commented on was posted on : mineweb.com and I don't sense any politics in the article.

12:41 pm
November 4, 2009


stockcrazy10

Moderator

posts 481

Confused India may have used SDRs to pay for the gold…


From the Financial Times:

http://ftalphaville.ft.com/blo…..confirmed/

12:50 pm
November 4, 2009


Darrell

Member

posts 310

Stockcrazy, yesterday,"minewb.com", reported that the currency used by India was in fact, US Dollars. Reread your post and the read theirs and see if you reach the same conclusion, please.

1:55 pm
November 4, 2009


Will

United States

Member

posts 290

Here is the other article:

One says US $, the other says SDR.Confused

http://www.mineweb.com/mineweb…..;sn=Detail

2:26 pm
November 4, 2009


stockcrazy10

Moderator

posts 481

Post edited 2:28 pm – November 4, 2009 by stockcrazy10


The mineweb.com article describes the payment this way…


"Reuters reports that an IMF official said that the sale was concluded at an average price of about $1,045 an ounce and that the transaction would be paid in hard currency and not in IMF Special Drawing Rights.  This effectively means US dollars as India's reserves are reportedly mostly held in U.S. Treasuries." 

http://mineweb.com/mineweb/vie…..;sn=Detail


There's an assumption by the author that this means US dollars.


According to the transcript of the conference call announcing the IMF's Sale of Gold to the Reserve Bank of India…


"In terms of payment, the payments are in currencies, not in SDRs. So the payment will be settled in the major currencies that make up the SDR basket."

http://www.imf.org/external/np…..10209a.htm


This is open to interpretation, but it suggests that the payment will be settled in a combination of ALL the major currencies that make up the SDR basket.   I think the IMF official would have specified dollars if the payment was going to be settled in dollars alone. 

I would have asked a followup question, but I wasn't there.  Wink 

My conclusion…we don't know!


There's a lot of contradictory information floating around, like this from Agora's The Daily Reckoning


"Also of note, India bought the IMF gold with SDRs — special drawing rights currency that is a combination of dollars, euros, yen and pounds."

http://dailyreckoning.com/behi…..-gold-buy/


3:22 pm
November 4, 2009


Will

United States

Member

posts 290

The pertinent question is what is the significance if it was paid with US$? LIkewsie with SDR?

3:40 pm
November 4, 2009


Darrell

Member

posts 310

I don't understand why the newsletter is reporting two different stories, but 11/03/09, mineweb reported that India used "Cash, US Dollars to buy the gold.  I read it twice and reffered "Will" to the article and it also hinted that other buyers would be using some US Dollars.  I couldn't raise yesterdaus article but today is a hint not a firm statement.  Sorry.Confused

3:50 pm
November 4, 2009


Will

United States

Member

posts 290

If it were up to me and I have tons of US$ to spend, I would rather get rid of the US$ rather than draw on the SDR. Against every other currencies, the US$ is tanking.

8:55 pm
November 4, 2009


smiling2bank

Member

posts 87

Will said:

The pertinent question is what is the significance if it was paid with US$? LIkewsie with SDR?


India's action was to "Sell dollars" and to "Buy gold." 

That should make a gold bug happy.

11:25 pm
November 4, 2009


Will

United States

Member

posts 290

shredmonster said:

http://seekingalpha.com/articl…..ull-market


Be interested to know what the gold bugs think.


Shred:

You never told us how this article changed your perspective. I reckon that it turned you away from buying gold.  But you did end up buying some gold stocks, right?

The Kitco article has a totally different point of view though. I am sure it is frustrating trying to figure out gold. I had a really hard time deciding whether to get back into the market after March 2009. There are those who swear that the worse is yet to come (they might still be right, just wrong about the timing) and then there are those who jumped right back in with both feet and caught the perfect wave. I ended up missing most if not all the March rally.

With gold, I was debating buying physical gold coins since 2004 (gold was about $600 an oz then) but was discouraged by the extremely high premium charged for those numismatic rare coins (pre 1933). I only found out about bullion coins this year and bought a bunch between the price of 850 to 940. According to Kitco, I am probably one of those trying to cling on to the rocket ship travelling to Pluto  with suction cups Smile

10:57 am
November 5, 2009


shredmonster

Member

posts 154

I have been visiting Kitco often lately – just reading the forum.  It is very interesting and there are guys making money trading the swings in the market.


I am not sophisticated enough to know half of what they are talking about.


Figure I will read a lot more of the posts and then join and start asking questions.


Right now I can only go by common sense – I think the gold markets are manipulated but they cannot hold the price down permanently.  With the way the US is going gold may be a good long term investment – both mining stocks and physical.

I have not purchased any physical yet – that is why I am spending time over at Kitco – to learn what and when to by.


In the end I don't agree with the article stating gold is not in a bull market.  In the 1970 Carter admin the money supply was increased by 13% according to Glenn Beck the other day.  This resulted in interest rates of 20%.   Now the money supply has been increased by something like 120%.  Common sense tells me something is going to hit the fan and from what I read it should start about 2012.  So I have some time to figure out how to protect my money.   So I have some learning to do.

6:44 pm
November 5, 2009


Will

United States

Member

posts 290

Ckeck out the guys at CMIGS. They are pretty good people and they do not try to push numismatic coins on you.

1:10 pm
November 11, 2009


stockcrazy10

Moderator

posts 481

India-IMF Deal: Tipping Point for Gold

Has a new floor been set at $1,000 per ounce?

Author: Frank Holmes
Posted:  Tuesday , 10 Nov 2009

http://mineweb.com/mineweb/vie…..;sn=Detail


Cool

1:17 pm
November 11, 2009


Will

United States

Member

posts 290

Great article! I just wish my gold miner stocks will move in tandem with the price of gold. I am surprised like most people that gold miner stocks are lagging behind the gold.Surprised


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