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Short term speculation

UserPost

12:44 am
November 21, 2009


spreadtrader

Member

posts 361

Folks with some extra "play money" may want to consider the following short term speculation.

Rather than write a book about it here, you can go here and knock yourself out:


http://www.stockgumshoe.com/20…..group.html


The deadline by regulation for the FDA pre-market approval decision is December 4, 2009, however the company reports as of November 11th that there is no guarantee that the approval process will not extend into 2010. Anyhow, the markets are not so much about "what is" as they are about what "may be". So you may be able to make dough on the fluffy impending December 4th "deadline" whether the approval decision is announced at about that time or not.

So the speculative trade is an option straddle in MELA and here's a way to play it. The market closed Friday at 9.74 so the put will be more expensive than the call since it is a tad ITM. Buy the December 10.00 put and call for 1.60 or better, combined debit. You may want to wait a week or so to do this trade to see whether you can buy the options more cheaply, however, volatility may rise (propping up option prices) as we count down to December 4th. Whether and to what extent there is an announcement on Friday, December 4th should govern your conduct on Monday, December 7th.

If you do this trade think through your strategy and have a detailed trading plan anticipating each "what if" scenario you can think of. Generally, I would imagine that if there is an announcement the market may move hard in one direction or another. On the other hand, if there is no announcement/decision or the market has already anticipated it (which it has a nasty habit of doing) nothing may happen to the stock price, in which case you may want to simply fold your tent on the 7th. Remember, the December options expire December 18th.

Have fun. Laugh


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