Maybe if Marty and Claus ate a box of Alpha-Bits, they could crap out better stock picks.

j.t. said:

spreadtrader,  what does this mean for the MDCP holdings?  Good news for some?  Bad news for others?

Not knowing all of his picks, but being able to make a reasonable guess, it means that his gold shares will likely do well into the end of the year. However, he had better be nimble with his inverse funds because he was way too early on buying them. They may do well for a few more weeks, but I believe they will hit new lows as we move into the late fall of the year. No crystal ball here, just my hunch.

Yes, but I don't think the rise will be gradual. There is a LOT of money that has been sidelined in cash or in bonds since last November. Once we have a breakout to the upside, pension money, hedge fund money and what I refer to as “stray sheep” money will flow back into stocks for fear of “missing” the next great bull market and that inertia will carry the S&P to maybe 1250 or so………….but this isn't 1984, 1995 or 2002.

I've said this before (about 6-8 months ago I think). After we get this sucker's rally (which is really very impressive, not to mention profitable for traders), the market will grind down making new lows over a period of several years………until almost nobody wants to talk about or know about stocks. It will then be time to buy again. Remember that the markets will reward only the few…….and will punish the many. It is why it is critical for you to recognize what the majority is doing……and do the opposite.

So Dr. Weiss may be right……..he's just off on his timing. If he wanted a simple precedent in history, he should have asked Edward Dewey (the Cycle Foundation guy) about 1930, when nearly an identical scenario played out. In 1930 the market made one of its strongest advances in history…before it promptly dove lower than the lows in 1929. Human behavoir, especially behavior governed by the emotions of fear and greed definitely repeats itself.

The biggest trouble maker for MDCP the past 4 months has been a stubborn market that refuses to collapse to 5000 like it's supposed to. Not everyone, however, is miserable and dejected over the market's lack of cooperation. Some members are long-term investors with a corresponding long-term perspective and they have chided the rest of the group for our impatience while we wait for the inevitable. They reassure the doubters that our portfolio is perfectly positioned for the doomsday scenario about to strike. Therefore, to worry is to misplace one's energies. You don't see Martin sweating bullets, do you?  And he's been waiting 37 years so what's another month or 6 or 12 or 60 or …  But other members have discovered they don't want to be long-term investors just yet.  They want profits from short-term rallies.  They want the timing Oracle. But they don't want to pay for it.  They think Martin should give them a free Oracle just because they lost a whole bunch of money they weren't expecting to lose.  But I don't think any of us are entitled to a free Tool.  I know it's a bit pricey right now but … there's a War Room Monday and the 3 War topics are market direction, portfolio performance, and timing errors.  There is a strong likelihood … and here I'm about to make a prediction … that at the end of the presentation the Oracle will be offered at a special unbelievable low price available only until midnight to the first 1000 respondees who still have some credit left on their credit card but they must act quickly on this once in a lifetime, never to be repeated, don't miss out offer made by Martin for no other reason than to show his appreciation for our steadfast loyalty. Of course, I could be wrong.  I'm no oracle.  And I do want to know what happens.  So perhaps someone still on the inside on Monday will be so kind as to keep us updated on the Cycles thingamabob and Claus and Martin and anything and everything else going on in MDCP.

Welll.. nice to see that I am in good company…

Could not agree more with all the comments about MDCP and the majority of the Weiss Services.

If you go to the Weiss website http://www.martinweiss.com and look at the performance of their services.. they are all losers in a big way.   Larry, Tony and Sean seem to do better but still.

Recently Larry said to his Real Wealth members that there was going to be a pull back in gold to hedge it….. guess what has happened since……. gold is up…

Friday…. I am exiting the horror show for good as the full refund period expires and i can not add insult to injury… by paying someone to help me lose money.  I am glad I ignored his last recommendation!…. 

If Klaus used the timing tool for his last recommendation….. I feel for all those that have bought this thing. Urggh

go to http://www.martinweiss.com

click on premium services on the left nav bar

select any of the services (it does not really matter)

and right above the “click here for special discount!”, click on the 'Trading History' link.

Scroll down to the bottom and you will see all the premium services… you can select whichever you like and see it.

They do not show MDCP…. i believe that it is because all positions are open. 

JT… I am curious… are you going to stick around?

I don't think Klaus has been fired…. he is Martin sidekick and he posted his usual article in MAM today.

I did not read it but after i read your note, decided to go and check.

They may just want to appear more impartial hence the moderator

If they’ve only lost $43,000 out of a million dollar portfolio, that’s less than 5% if my math is correct. I’m going to assume they are still 90% in short term treasuries.

I wonder how many of the subscribers sank only 10% of their money into the portfolio. I wonder if Claus and Marty emphasized this while they were building the portfolio. If I were listening to a lot of bitching and moaning, I certainly would have pointed out the loss is less than 5%.

They’re about 62% invested (remainder in treasuries), so the way I figure it, it’s a bit under a 7% loss ignoring the treasuries. It certainly isn’t the worst that an investment newsletter service has ever done for its clients, but alongside the market increase over the same span of time (with Martin’s seriously fear-mongering advice to sell one’s prior portfolio which resulted in missing the run-up), the losses are more felt.

j.t. said:  One blogger just asked a profoundly shocking question … wants to know if Claus is being fired and if the War Room Moderator is taking his place.

dist and ex-MDCP,

This question was asked by a blogger who had one too many beers under his belt.  After reading 43 whiny blogs, my attention was attracted to the above and I passed it along for whatever it's worth, which is zilch.  While to me it has giggle value, it's not to be taken seriously since Claus and Martin will be co-anchoring MDCP for as long as Martin's $1 million holds out and, more importantly, as long as defectors can be replaced.  Include me among the defectors, as I'll be departing on Friday. Might have stayed but the censorship shoved me out the door.  Why should I entrust my financial destiny to advisors who feel compelled to control communication among members?  Advisors who won't answer questions until their backs are against the wall?  etc. etc.  Gumshoes want to know how the portfolio is doing.  Here's how:

62% is invested in 8 assets (the 9th reco is an add-on to one of the

2 are Up and 6 are Down   G/L ranges from +5% to -16% and overall is -7%

The S&P500 is +17% since inception and MDCP is -24% accordingly

As stated in post #1, performance is lackluster and after 4 months shows no signs of improvement. Fine tuning or timing refinement or diversification or a bribe to Bernie or something is required to get this contrarian, semi-contrarian, anti-contrarian portfolio to stop acting like a chicken with its head cut off and start producing the profits that members were promised.

This article is a review of the work of someone named Michael Murphy, and oddly enough, a stock picking newsletter that focuses on high tech. The relevant question is “got it right when?” Brimelow points out that Murphy has had losing binges as well: http://www.marketwatch.com/sto…..rs-of-2007

My point in mentioning this is that context is everything. I don't quarrel that “inflation is coming” and I've sounded the alarm repeatedly in comments in this forum over the past year as I bitterly disparage the very existence of politicians of every spot, stripe scale and feather.

However, (since this is posted in this thread) it is also evident that most traders/investors want to see profitable results in their invested dollars NOW, not sometime in the future. Ask Martin Weiss. (By the way, doesn't Martin see inflation on the horizon; and how does that mesh with heavily investing in inverse stock funds?) Not to digress, but why didn't Martin start this MDCP thingy a full year or more ago?

So if you want to buy and hold for the coming inflation you can certainly do that. If you do, here's probably how you should invest (quoting Murphy from the article):

 ”To survive a great inflation, you need to own assets — stocks, real estate, commodities, gold, silver, farms, water and exchange-traded funds in those areas. You need to carry as much low interest, fixed-rate debt as you can stand.”

But again……….the trick is WHEN to buy them. Personally, I think it is too early to buy real estate. Why? First, it hasn't bottomed and won't until interest rates are back at double digits; and second, it isn't liquid enough for me to take a chance that it has presently bottomed so that I can quickly sell if I've made a mistake in my timing.

Buy stocks? Well, I am (and have been since December), but not because I see long term inflation (which I do). I'm buying stock because markets rally with a vengeance after a big reaction sell-off (which happened last fall). But I don't think that sell-off will last (and it hasn't). Still, does that mean it won't return? I think it will return.

So really what I think I'm telling you is that my investing/trading horizon is something like 4-6 months, or something less than a year (I think it comes from my experience trading commodity futures and their spreads). In the next four to six months I see the stock market rallying (and if the market corrects down 5%-10% in the next month, that is still my view). Afterwards, the exercise of last fall will repeat itself, but over a significantly longer period of time as the stock market digests the reality of the wealth contraction that has occurred over the past year.

As for “nominal” or “real”, unfortunately, I have to spend dollars. So I have to try to accumulate as many greenbacks as possible, as fast as I possibly can. Can you have inflation while the stock markets grind lower? I think so. Will commodities be a good hedge against lower general equity values? I think so too. My strategy will be to exit general equities near the end of the year or shortly into 2010 and buy inverse funds and hard assets, especially foreign assets in emerging economies.

…..and having said all that………I still have no crystal ball. 

spreadtrader, thanks for your post, I'm trying to assimilate it.  

Marty's latest offer: “Final 24 Hours to Save $3,003!”…(before) Charter Enrollment for The Foundation Alliance CLOSES FOREVER.

What he doesn't say….

You'll save far MORE than $3,003 if you don't subscribe! 

Post edited 8:46 am – July 17, 2009 by dlst

Yeh, I wonder if Claus will want to hedge the gold positions as Larry is doing. I just sold my single (recently purchased) gold position at a slight loss, so I now own none of the MCP picks.

I asked Chief Gumshoe to delete my last post as I was unable to “fix” it before the edit function expired. Now I'm reposting. Thanks Chief.

FRIDAY   Received an email from Martin today saying HE called Claus on the carpet because he is unhappy with HIS reco #9. HE…HIS…WHO?   Does HE think WE think HE gave HIM power of attorney to buy whatever HE wants to buy for HIS account without consulting HIM first?  Well, it's possible some members think so.

The censor has gone awol, been given a pink slip, or sent to Timbuktu for R&R, for no sensible censor would let 95% of these posts onto the board. Today 4 optimists spoke up … 3 more than yesterday … to counter the Wagnerian outcries of the pessimists. Optimist #4 advised all members to read Martin's latest book “The Ultimate Depression Survival Guide” and follow the suggestions therein.  Pssst!  HEY #4!! Our portfolio IS Martin's Guide.  Theory is now actuality.  Unfortunately for Martin, his Great Experiment was doomed from the start by bad timing. The hornet's nest that MDCP has morphed into could have been avoided if only he had consulted the Oracle in February; for the Oracle, had it been asked, would have told him to wait until 2012 … the revised date for the Ultimate market collapse … before initiating the Million Dollar Ultimate Depression Survival Guide Contrarian Portfolio.

Thank goodness I was still a blog reading member today or I would have missed Jill's post in which she told us sheep how to hang onto our wool while dodging the wolves. She bought none of Claus 9 recos because after checking her charts against his recos she saw that his indicators were all wrong for this market.  But Claus has finally figured out how to conquer Bernie, TARP, PPT, FED, GM, GS, Mr. Market and all the rest of the portfolio's enemies, and in Monday's War Room he will reveal his plan to get the 8 remaining recos to produce a solid profit regardless of future market direction. Has Claus been talking to the Oracle? Or taking lessons from Jill?

I called support to cancel and [sorry, but my blabby lips are sealed.  I took a second look at the email confirmation and this time looked hard at the coiled, hissing, tail rattling Confidentiality Notice in paragraph 2 and ... prudence prevailed].  Anyway, I've marked the date in giant red letters on my calendar and put a yellow sticky on my laptop and the refrigerator and left a wake-up call with the front desk.  At midnight Sunday the pro-rated refund period takes effect, I do believe, so staying over to catch the War Room showdown on Monday … without having made prior arrangements … will cost members $500.