Post edited 4:35 pm – July 20, 2009 by j.t.

dist,  Sure, they extend it to everyone … even to little 'ol bad mouth me … IF you ask for it in a timely manner.  Missed the War Room due to tech difficulties again … that makes me 0 for 4 … so I have to wait for the transcript.  Only 2 blog reports so far and neither answers my Big Question…what is Claus plan to make all 8 recos profitable no matter what the market does?  Just before I picked up the telephone to call the Oracle, eureka!…he's going to hedge each and every one of them.  Am I right?  Or am I half right, or half wrong, or off the cliff?  I'd give a whole dollar to know and since you were there … what'd he say?    

Say…did you get an extension without calling support? 

Post edited 5:36 pm – July 20, 2009 by ex-mdcp

Welll Scotckcrazy10… the call was boring as hell.  As I said to PortfolioMan, he did not miss anything.

I had expected Martin & Claus to be more convincing about having people stay…. but that was not the case. There was nothing he said that made me change my mind about cancelling pass this extension to listen to the war session.

Claus outlook is the same… market is going to tank any day now… He will only change his mind about his investment strategy if the S&P makes it above 950 and stays there. Same with the 200 average for the Dow…. which happened today.. but we all know, he wont.

I have to imagine that anyone that decided to hold until this session will leave..

The interesting thing is that Larry says today in his website that you should not be in inverse ETF which is exactly what Claus has people on…. financials, S&P, nasdaq…..

What a waste.

I would laugh if I had not put some of my money in his recommendations.  I got smart and did not buy his last recommendation!… at least I have that one…

>dist, you can send a Private Message to j.t. if you want to keep the War Room discussion private.

There’s nothing much to report—same old same old; no indication of how we will now, according to Martin and unlike in recent months, make profits in both up and down markets. I’ll be quitting MCP today so I’ll be out of the loop.

He’s still fundamentally bearish. BTW, the MCP hit a milestone of sorts today–losses now exceed $50K as one of the stocks tanked. Poor Claus. I bet he’s wishing he’d never agreed to manage the portfolio.

I’m sure Claus is well aware of the $$$$$ being printed; how it affects his strategy I don’t know.

Not sure what you are asking w/ your 2nd question. There are a couple of stodgy stocks (betas of 0.7 and 0.6) in the portfolio which were allegedly chosen because they might increase in value as the market rises and may be safer than other stocks if the market heads lower. I think these were added for only one reason: to appease people who wanted *something* other than the market inverses and gold-related picks. Neither has done well; one is down 5%, the other is down 17%.

Big-picture-wise, what is astonishing is the failure over these 4 months to invest in China. There have been dozens of Chinese stocks that have doubled or tripled or more since the start of the MCP. The Chinese index ETFs have also increased hugely. The “flexibility” that was to characterize Claus’ investment strategy has not occurred at all, IMO.

asafp,  among the select group of MDCP holdings, none are Canadian, nor is Canada on Claus jackpot list.

One member's opinion of Monday's War Room … refried beans.  What??!!! No meat?  No soup?  Just vegetables?  The pre-War Room teaser said Claus would discuss his plan to get the portfolio off its back and on its feet.  What did we know about this plan BEFORE the War Room? 1. Martin is impressed with Claus plan  2.  The plan is 3-pronged  3. The prongs are a. US Treasury bond prices will fall  b. China will rise  c. US stocks will fall.  What do we know about this plan, besides the fact that we've got prong 'c' well covered, AFTER the War Room?   Bloggers aren't talking.  The transcript isn't typed.  Anybody care to discretely spill the beans? 

It has become apparent to many bloggers that Martin's expertise is not in stock picking but in marketing, i.e. create a need (via his books and free ezines) and then fill that need with services.  If one service doesn't work for you, try another.  And at this very moment he has a full dozen or more available along the entire bear-bull spectrum and new ones being added as quickly as Martin can create the need. And what valuable lesson has Martin learned from his MDCP experience?  He's learned that his next grand experiment, “Son Of The $1 Million Dollar Contrarian Portfolio”, will have NO BLOG.

martins_son said:

Post edited 3:53 pm – July 22, 2009 by martins_son

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Yes there is a Canadian gold stock investment in the portfolio. To be honest there aren't any good positions in the portfolio. Not a single one, zip, zero and nada. The only thing close to good in the portfolio is the cash and one could reasonably argue that the US Dollar is not the best currency to currently own. The Canadian gold stock the portfolio has isn't even a good one like Yamana but one that another Weiss analyst sad was a dog and to sell it. Really, I couldn't make this stuff up. I am still a current member and today one of the longs tanked nearly 20%. I believe that company has locations in Canada too.  Kind Regards

WHY???  (are you Martin's son? ) 

dear son,  You're right!  The golds are Canadian and I OWN THEM BOTH (2 of my 3 MDCP holdings).  Am I sitting on a potential goldmine of profits? 

Left Camp Martin yesterday.  After I said thanks for the memories, I was dumb-founded to be asked to stay longer.  The offer was so generous that … I had to say No.  The last 4 months spent waiting for the DJ to collapse to 5000, which every day Martin and Claus assured me would happen tomorrow, kept me from joining the bulls full time and making big profits …though I did make a few scaredy-cat call option trades that paid the rent.  It's difficult to be a confident bull when 2 bears have their bicuspids firmly on your biceps.  Then today I got an email from support asking very valuable me (their words) to take my very valuable time (their words again) to complete their exit survey.  Seems that Martin wants my suggestions on how to improve MDCP and since I was in a happy mood brought about by visions of $1500 soon to be safe and snug back in my bank account where it belongs, and since I did actually have a few suggestions, I shared them. 

As of today's close, 3 of the 8 open holdings … the 3 that I own … are up 5%.  Sounds good … until I compare that 4-month gain to the 2-week gain in my 2 open call options …112% in one and 40% in the other (details on another thread). With option profits like these I could move from my shack across the tracks into that just-built high-rise condo downtown with an unobstructed view of Mount Snow-On-The-Top. 

The remaining 5 MDCP holdings are down from 4% to 19%.  The total loss, including reco #9 sold this week, is 9%.  To me, a 9% loss is too small … as well as maybe temporary … to lose any sleep over.  Speaking as an options veteran, accustomed to frequent wipeouts, I don't start chewing my nails until I'm down 30%.

Got a Flash Alert at noon from Martin saying to sell at market, presumably today, one of the Safe Money Report holdings which is also held by MDCP.  Wonder if Claus gave a sell alert to the MDCP members?  Now that I'm out the door, someone else will have to assume the duties of tactful informant and keep we ex-MDCPers up to date.

I have no clue as to why you didn't receive a generous offer to stay.  I have no clue as to why I got a generous offer … one I found oh so easy to refuse … as I thought I was on Martin's off-with-his-head list after the last email I sent him.  And I too miss the blog.  I miss the bloggers.  I miss the routine of stopping by to see what my favorite 'regulars' were thinking … can't name names since Martin owns the copywrite, but I saw that one of them visited the Reviews page a few weeks ago, so maybe he'll find his way here someday.  We knuckleheads recognize and admire the deep thinkers … the thoughtful, the earnest, the serious minded who look at an issue from 18 different angles … while the shallow jjust ump in and bray hee-haw.  Is it too soon to skip down memory lane?  I remember lots of terrific posts about that goofball, the Oracle, from its first tantalizing mention in M&M, to its final moment when it fell off the cliff … or was it pushed? … soon after we saw its pricetag.

As for a possible pull-back in China positions … Larry's been talking to the Oracle again.  Of course a pull-back is coming.  That's the way it is with stocks.  First they go up … and then they go down … and then they go up … and then they … Where did I put the Oracle's phone number? 

Gumshoe wants to know how much is 11 +12 … usually they're easier than this … I don't have enough fingers … if 10 + 10 = 20 then add the remainder and that makes 23 … OK, I'm ready now …

Friday brought several sell positions as well as one new long position. The long has nearly doubled in the last three and a half months and is up near its high. Just like the last two longs positions that turned out to be real looses. The very last long buy has joined the -20% down club in just a matter of weeks. Our first short position is now down -25%!   Our retail long that is now down -20% in under a week neither Claus nor Martin has had the ballz to address

Today is my second full day in withdrawal … from MDCP.  Science says it takes 21 days to break a habit … any habit … good or bad … no matter.

Got an email from Larry today … if it's Monday it must be Larry … and today he's revealing his entire open portfolio of precious metals and natural resource stocks and ETFs.  All 8 Chinas are Up … from 6% to 50% in the past 4 months.  Of the 11 non-Chinas, 10 are Up … as much as 23%.  So … Larry is 18 for 19.  MDCP is 0 for 9.  Larry is a bull.  Claus and Martin are bears. 

Larry said that normally he would keep all this good news strictly between himself and his paying subscribers, but he's so full of himself he just can't resist bragging.  Excuse me, what he actually said was he doesn't want us to miss out on these profits.  But Larry, we already missed out.  Are you saying it's not too late?  There's still lots more profits to come?  Find out at uncommonwisdomdaily.com.

Must be plenty of teeth gnashing on today's MDCP blog and buckets of rotten tomatoes splatting Martin and Claus in the puss.  It does hurt just a wee bit to be reminded of how well SOME stock pickers are doing in the real world … while MDCP is stranded on the isle of The Way It Ought To Be If Only There Was Some Justice In The World. 

And the Cycle Boys (Larry and Richard) are now declaring a multi-week rally! Better get on board, ’cause the Cycle Train is pullin’ out of the station real soon now!

j.t., your Larry analysis looks about right.

j.t. said:

Got an email from Larry… and today he's revealing his entire open portfolio

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****CORRECTION****

Actually, Larry is not revealing his entire open portfolio … just those recos made in his common wisdom emails since mid-March … recos which may or may not be in his Real Wealth Report.

Oh boy. 1 post and 2 corrections so far.  Something Dad used to say …measure twice, cut once … comes to mind.  Well!  I refuse to look at either Larry's email or my post again … lest I find more errors.

dist,   About getting on board … I got on. Just bought another China call option.  And today I find out that Larry likes China too. Why didn't I look at his emails last March?  Why did I delete them as soon as they hit my inbox?  Why didn't …oh, well, water under the bridge.  Ever since Larry became buddy-buddy with the Oracle, he's been on a winning streak. Is the Oracle talking to Claus?  Is Claus listening?  Maybe Claus doesn't like the Oracle.  It's hard to like a know-it-all, but Claus should make the effort.  MDCP members are depending on him and getting along with the Oracle may be just what Claus needs to turn the corner and make MDCP profitable.

ex-mdcp,  I am checking the Reviews  … the alternate Forum site.  What are they doing over there anyway?  Their noble efforts to save the investment world from the wicked machinations of Martin belong over here, IMHO.  Of course, it would be helpful if there was a neon billboard with flashing arrows and whistles and free coupons at the top of the Review page that would direct alll those who, after reading the reviews and ratings, wanted to know more.  And we do want to know more, don't we? 

dist,  As they say over on the Reviews page “I couldn't agree with you more.”  Nobody, and especially we ex-MDCPers, needs to pay $1500 ($2000 for new members) for investment guidance that can be had for free via Martin's M&M daily ezines.  And for just $99 one can purchase a full year of Martin's advice and recommendations in Safe Money Report, some of which recommendations are duplicated in MDCP.  And, since it's helpful to know what the big bad bears are thinking in order counter the wild enthusiasm of the bulls, supporting the Martin machine to the tune of $99 can be justified.  And lastly, don't forget that 35% of the cost is tax deductible.  And absolutely lastly, don't ever forget that realized capital losses help reduce the capital gains we are earning … somewhere outside MDCP.

While I was looking at MDCP Reviews yesterday, I noticed on the sidebar, in the midst of a string of MDCP 'Not Rated' Reviews, this one for Stock Gumshoe:

“Travis, your site is the only one I use.  I started with $50k last Nov, and using your advice only, the little “mutual fund” I created closed last Friday at $496k.”  

Lots of capital gains for Farmer John to worry about shielding.  Not even Larry is doing this well.  Just goes to show … there is gold em them thar hills if you have a pick and shovel and a burro.