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Financial Forecast Short Term Update

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Steven Evans
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Steven Evans
February 1, 2009 4:11 am

This review will cover as one package the Elliot Wave International’s three packages, Short-Term Update, Financial Forecast, and Elliot Wave Theorist. The reason is that just buying the Short Term Update (at $39/month) is like looking up close at a Monet Painting (e.g., London. The Waterloo Bridge). You see every stroke and line but can’t really tell what the big picture is all about, while the Financial Forecast gives you the big picture, but you will miss far too much of what this service has to provide if you are just getting commentary once a month. However if you buy the Short Term Update and just one of the others, you get all three for the same in their bundled price — so you might as well think of it as $59 (bundled price) for one package that comes in three parts. So just what is this package?

The answer to that requires some commentary. The Elliot Wave Theory essentially says that all the commentary you get from all the talking heads on Wall Street is just that — made-up drivel that tells you little. Rather, the market is not a rational reaction to the daily economic news but is driven by an overall social mood (positive to negative), reflected in a subsequent herding behavior, and is essentially fractal (any part is similar to the larger part at any size you select). The market moves in determined and predictable waves, and if you properly identify the direction and status of the wave, you will have a very good picture of the ongoing trend. The Short Term Update gives you this “local” view of the trend, although they do show it in context of the Big Picture, but the other two publications focus on the Big Picture to be sure you understand the overall market direction. Thus this service is offering a compass to ascertain the ongoing direction of the market, both short term and long.

Although the service may seem initially like a kind of technical charting analysis, it differs significantly from this by being grounded on an underlying theory about how human behavior operates and postulates an underlying wave theory that structures all the ongoing market moves. Virtually without exception, there are no individual stock recommendations whatsoever. It is a compass on where the market is in its cycle, and as a result, where it is likely going. It is actually an order of magnitude more subtle and sophisticated than merely technical charting since it operates with what can be called “a normative theory;” that it, it both describes and explains the markets ongoing moves through these built-in wave cycles being reflected, daily, weekly, monthly, yearly, and even over centuries.

With all that being said, so what use is it? I can tell you that it has bailed my fat out of the fire for more than two years now — with its compass reading on where the market is and where it is going. For example, gold was predicted to move up (so I profited both with an ETF and specific gold miners I obtained from other regular stock-recommending sites), and as gold reached about $1000/ounce, the Elliot Wave analysis indicated we were through. I sold around $950 using the Short Term Update, and rode gold back down. Using their Big Picture, I turned bearish at the end of 2007 although they called the actual top within a month of it, and the service has served me in good stead all these many months. If you had embraced the Elliot Wave compass, you could easily have avoided most of the bite of the bear. So I am a very happy camper.

The reason for this long review is that you can see that this service is a bit more cerebral than others, and does not, like most others, itemize a good stock buy this week or a good short. However, now that there are ETF’s, I can in fact short the DOW or S&P or go long on gold, etc. by connecting my purchases of ETF’s with the trends. I should note they have a lot of specialty additional services if you want to focus on commodities, for example, and other areas. Then you could trade specific ones since they track wheat, corn, oil, etc. In my opinion, this service which for my tight budget is somewhat expensive ($59/month) is extremely valuable, gives me what I think is a very good, tight, and remarkable accurate handle on where the overall market is going and where it is likely to go, and then when I couple that with either ETF’s or some individual stock recommendations (for example, Travis’ sleuthing brings us specific stocks that can be good insights), I have been doing utterly embarrassingly well for some time. I will keep with them.

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troppo32
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troppo32
February 7, 2009 6:49 pm

What a joke – “Steve Evans” reviews three of Robert Prechters offerings and uses the same commentary for all three. This smacks of a marketing flack shilling his pubs and is not something I would expect from Stock Gumshoe.

I hope they screen the reviews to keep them honest.

And, yes, I will post this on all three “reviews”.

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kelly russell
February 14, 2009 9:49 am

Hello all ! I’m just adding a “ditto” for Steven Evans’ descriptions of the ElliottWave offerings ( well done enough that I’ve nothing to add to give you a better picture of what the services do or what potential value they have).
To “Troppo32” – read Steven’s descriptions again. He’s not “shortcutting” by reviewing all three as a “package” – they offer the broadest perspective as a group, though if you only had an interest in a very specific time frame you might want to pick only one of the bunch.
I’ve been most impressed with the perspective that this body of work offers- I’ll keep subscribing to their “bundle” for the forseeable future.

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jbb
Guest
jbb
March 23, 2009 8:32 am

By no stretch of the imagination is this a “short term” newsletter. Although he does give himself an out in each letter by stating that if it goes beyond or below a certain number that he will change his mind but by then most of the move is over.

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Chuck
Member
Chuck
June 20, 2009 9:28 am

I’ve subscribed to EW Financial Forecast since 2001. Additionally, I’ve subscribed to other newsletters (EW Theorist and Short Term Update) off-and-on since 2001.

Overall, I find the newsletter(s) valuable and I’ve continued to subscribe. My experience is that EW has been accurate about the major tops/bottoms and calling the inflection points that change trend of the market. They use a variety of indicators as supporting evidence for their Elliott Wave interpretation. Sometimes the wave will evolve over time and a top is predicted multiple times (at progressively higher levels).

The newsletter has guided me into several counter-intuitive moves — including the rally from 2003 to 2006, the Fall/2007 top and the renewed decline in early 2008. Remember that in early 2008, the consensus was for a shallow recession and everyone was picking a bottom in January and March 2008.

To be honest, they began calling the 2007 top far too early. That’s the “wave evolving” comment I made earlier.

Overall, it’s valuable for me.

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WARTHOG 1
Guest
WARTHOG 1
July 11, 2009 6:26 pm

I have followed Elliot Wave via their free Club EWI updates since before the dot com crash. Having evaluated their projections against what actually ocurred in the markets /commodities / forex I was taken by the accuracy of their predictions. Although not always right, the beauty of this methodology is that it provides quantifiable and objective threshholds to determine when you are wrong.

From a “Macro” point of view I have not found anything that comes close to the accuracy of their predictions. Thankfully I took a paid subscription in 2007 and took their advice to get out of my equity positions and preserve cash prior to the 2008 crash. When my aquaintances were playing the hold and hope card during late 2008 and early 2009 watching their stock holdings cut in value by half, I was actively shorting the indexes based on the information from these services for profits that exceeded 100%. They called the real estate crash, the Fannie and Freddie implosion and have many other great market calls that have been extremely profitable.

If you are doubtful, please read Elloit Wave guru Robert Prechter’s book “Conquer the Crash”. Written in 2002, his market predictions based on Elloit Wave theory are unbelievable in their accuracy.

Although I have many other paid subscriptions, this is far and away the most valuable. I cannot overemphasize how profitable this information has been to my personal investment strategy.

I feel Elloit Wave is as close to the “Holy Grail” of predictive investment information as there is.

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Al
Guest
Al
October 14, 2009 9:41 pm

Well, I have only been a subscriber (EWT + EWFF + EW STU)since Aug. 24 2009 and was still reviewing their archives when the call went out, by an early issue of Bob Precters’ EW Thoerist, that the odds favored the end of PrimaryWave2Up and the start of PrimaryWave3Down: the longest and most destructive wave down, according to EW Principle.

Anyways, I’m not a novice, and have my own trading system, so I merely observed the market going down but did notice that it failed to break major support at SPX 992 on 9/2/2009 so I went long.

In my experience when major support holds, the market rotates back up to test major resistance, which is what happened as the market rotated up and finally neared SPX 1070. Granted, the upsurge was typical PrimaryWave2 behavior, in that there was no let up after major support held, so I give EW FF and STU credit for alerting me about various wave “personalities”.

Anyways, that was their first and failed call to the end of PrimaryWave2Up and start of PrimariWave3Down. Their second call, also a failure, I will add, happened on Sep. 23. 2009 first by STU(short term update) then later “confirmed” by FF STU. However, once again, the market decline was stopped by major support holding in the area of SPX 1020 which resulted in the recent rally propelling DJIA to 10,000.

I expect it to continue until it hits the next major resistance, or fibonacci 50% retracement off the Oct 2007 highs and subsequent decline to 666 (March 2009 lows). I will add that once again I followed my own system and went long when I saw major support hold. In both cases, STU did not recommend going long and only had an opinion after the wave structure was complete: that is, after the move was done.

In summary, though they have had two major market turn calls fail, I will still keep them. EW does provide a sense of the strength of the particular wave underlying the trend and reasonable expectations for its end. In other words, if you don’t already have a trading system to work alongside EW, then it likely won’t benefit you much.

For an investor with no such system, one solution could be going long Put Leaps of at least 6 months duration for the major market calls. Such a strategy would not require much capital and could pay off handsomely if they are right.

To be fair, in reading the two books that they sent as a free gift (you pay shipping) for subscribing, they clearly state that their Elliot Wave analysis, by itself, is not a trading system. To this, I most heartily concur. Good luck to all.

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Wolfgangus
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Wolfgangus
March 4, 2010 6:25 pm

Long time subscriber as much for the stimulating view of how the (investment) world works as for the advice. I once sent an excerpt to a friend whose wife saw it and wrote to me wanted something actionable. I wrote back the following: “I did not send this excerpt as any kind of investment advice. Prechter is a brilliant, self-assured iconoclast and his deeply contrarian, outrageous views fascinate me. Sometimes he’s right; sometimes he’s wrong, but he always has a unique perspective”.

That undersells him a bit. He has made some incredibly timely contrarian calls, most recently calling the bottom on the dollar. Everybody says “oh, sure” now, but when he made it, the dollar was the currency NOBODY wanted. That was only a few short weeks ago, but how quickly we forget. He has been less accurate on the stock market, but again, he called the bottom (a little early) last February, and is now calling for an imminent top (also early). That said, he missed most of the 2003-2006 and 1995-2000 rallies in equities. His most controversial call currently is for a top in the precious metals – in the face of George Soros and all the brilliant hedgies who love gold. Plus he is a confirmed deflationist despite all the money printing, stimulus, QE, etc. And finally, much to my liking, and unlike literally every other newsletter writer around, he cautions that making big money in the markets (and keeping it) is extremely rare and difficult.

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Jenn
Member
Jenn
May 1, 2010 2:48 pm

I am a long term subscriber to the three EWI newsletters – The Theorist, The Financial Forecast and Steve Hochberg’s Short Term Update. I agree with reviewer, Steven Evans, each gives context to the others and all three are needed to get a full picture. They don’t offer an infallible crystal ball, however the EWI team often serves up fascinating and uncannily timed insights. Robert Prechter’s article on Goldman Sachs late in 2009 was stunningly prescient, in the light of all that has transpired since. At the time it prompted me to adopt a highly bearish stance on GS stock, which has paid off big.

Mr. Prechter and Mr. Hochberg routinely state the obvious – that if market action does contradicts their preferred wave count scenario, then the count must be relabeled accordingly and the probabilities then change for the next best count. This shifting canvas can certainly be frustrating. The Short Term Update tackles the challenge, reinterpreting current counts in various markets three times a week, confirming or ruling out patterns in play, and offering alternate scenarios for emerging wave counts. I think Steve Hochberg does it well. I also check in on The Evil Speculator and Daneric’s blog for all the EW a girl can chomp on.

IMHO all three EWI publications I receive are an excellent value. The educational content has added greater depth to my investing philosophy and sharpened my trading skills. Like another reviewer, I cherish Mr. Prechter’s unique and often ironic take on the markets. He also makes some brilliant calls. Kudos for the US dollar low and sharp rally, which I took to the bank, and for his call on the 09 bottom of the crash. His calls of a top in Primary Wave 2 up have been premature; it took some cojones to urge his readers to enter short 2x on the last one he made. Fortunately he provided the target levels that would confirm or rule out his view. No one gets the major calls right every time and I would rather have an analyst risk making a wrong call than keep quiet to avert possible ego damage.

My real gripe about the EWI calls this past year is GOLD. Its imminent demise has been Prechter’s constant refrain virtually throughout this crazed rally, and this determined bear bias has not been very constructive for the bottom line. Sure, in the end the price will fall, but it’s not worth missing a major rally in the meantime. Robert McHugh has been a much more bullish day-to-day EW analyst of Gold and Silver, and his perspective made money for me.

The EWI newsletters are not aimed at novices; the authors seem to take for granted a pretty advanced understanding of EW principles. No newsletter can be all things to all people, and a “dumbed down” version would defeat the purpose, however I don’t think it would kill Prechter and Hochberg to add the occasional clarification for the benefit of newbies. For the more experienced investors among us, more frequent discussion of Fibonacci time frame alternatives could be useful. I appreciated the discussion of cycles in the last issue. Another plus would be to open their archives to subscribers for education – I hate that they don’t do that.

I recommend The Short Term Update and other EWI publications for people with some understanding of Elliott Wave principles, and I strongly suggest using a range of technical tools for trading decisions, not just EW.

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GenuineReviewer
Member
GenuineReviewer
June 1, 2010 10:22 am

I have subscribed to EWI Short Term Update/Financial Forecast/Theorist for quite a few years.

The latter two are excellent analysis/advisory. The STU is only published Mon/Wed/Fri so you can’t use it for trading. The problem with Elliot Waves in general is that there is always an alternate view. So the top view is the market will go up. The top alternate view is that the market will go down. That is about the size of it. The monthly Financial Forecast works better because Elliot Waves work better over the longer term.

Elliot Wave International is definitely genuine and honest.

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Danpar
Guest
Danpar
November 4, 2010 10:48 am

Steve Hochberg could not find his way back home with a GPS even if his life would depend on it.

For months now he is predicting the big move down. Not only it did not happen but since the beginning of September the market made quite a strong move up; 10 weeks now and still counting.

Hochberg analysis relies, amongst others, on factors like bull/bear sentiment. He tries to pinpoint a major reversal on extreme readings. In my opinion bull/bear sentiment are no different from overbought/oversold signals. A market can be overbought for weeks or months before reversing.

Hochberg mentioned many time that the internals don’t follow the uptrend of this market. As I write this the delta of new 52 weeks high minus new 52 weeks low is at 1143, the highest number since Sept 1 the beginning of this rally.

I gave Hochberg five stars for his consistency. He is consistently on the wrong side of the market. One market strikes me amongst others. Silver was around $17 in the middle of summer. It is around $25 as I write this. During all these weeks Hochberg analysis was for the precious metals to pull back hard anytime soon. Not once he mentioned that he has been wrong.

What is the value of a predictive technical analysis system that takes months to get fulfill? None! I don’t know any timing system that would let you on the wrong side of the market for that long. The problem with EWI is that under the cover of highly sophisticated technical analysis their system is no more that wishful thinking. You might as well see a fortune teller. EWI gives you the impression that you get an edge because you are not part of the herd. But you get no edge with EWI. In fact you will get stuck in trades that make you lose money because you don’t want to take a stop loss. You won’t take your loss because you read their analysis predicting that the next big move down is around the corner. And you wait and wait hoping of a reversal that will eventually come. Meanwhile they will drag you on the wrong side of the market for moths and make you lose money, lot of it.

There are several factors that don’t speak in favor of Hochberg.
• He does not have a model portfolio. You won’t find any track record anywhere on the site. How does he make money? Selling subscriptions!
• Impossible to reach by email. If you have a question or a comment you have to send to the customer’s service and good luck to get an answer.
• There is no archive for the “Short Term Update”; simply because it is too revealing.

I have been using IBD and Vectorvest timing systems. None of them is perfect and sometimes you get whipsaw. But none of them ever missed a 10 weeks bull market.
To those who mentioned that EWI opinions are very entertaining because of their contrarian point of view I respond be very careful. To be part of the contrarian crowd can lead you to ruin.

The Elliott wave system is a complicated form of technical analysis that is supposed to predict major tops and bottoms and reversal points. Most of the time it does not work and then they explain to you that they have to reset and recount the waves; s* happens. I have to admit that I have been seduced by the idea that one can predict the future with mathematical precision. But after more than one year of subscription to EWI products I lost all my initial hope for a truly different edge. It was about time that I cancelled my subscriptions; while my trading account still has some value left.

Do yourself a favor; study the trend. The trend is your friend; witchcraft technical analysis is not.

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regretful
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regretful
November 11, 2010 12:15 am

I have been a successful trend follower until i read conquer the crash during the crusis in 2008. I was very impressed and went on to subscribe their news letters. I was very memerised and impressed and decided to subscribe. Although they did call it right to close shorts, their long call was a little late but still ok. Heres the real damage.

Their constant bearish call makes it impossible to go long. Many short term trading opportinities will be lost. Their news screws with your head. No one should be predicting the market. Miss Trend Following i am sorry i got distracted.

I give them 5 starts for consistency – being wrong.

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Ernie
Guest
Ernie
December 7, 2010 10:10 am

Their service should be illegal and exposed for what it truly is, a ripoff. I too read conquer the crash, and then subscribed to this crap. Initially they seemed to be right. I went short @ S&P 1090 in July, after their warnings of a severe downturn. I’ve been watching my money disappear ever since. Every week, they would issue the same prediction that the market is going south next week in a very big way…..unless it goes up! I lost the entire summer rally, and lost over 10% by being short. What this does is suck you in, and keeps you subscribed because you start hoping for better news. And as another reviewer said, it keeps you from ever going long. According to Prechter, we’re in this bear market until 2016. So keep your money in cash, buy canned foods, fill your house with gold bullion, even though its going to crash, and be prepared to live in caves.

Bottom line is that you CANNOT trade or even invest based on their service. It’s pure and simply a ripoff.

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Fred
Guest
Fred
December 31, 2010 1:44 pm

How long has it been since the last good silver forecast? They completely messed up on that one.

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Jim
Member
Jim
January 15, 2011 11:53 am

I’ve subscribed to the Short Term Update and the Theorist for a year or so. Following Prechter has led to absolutely horrible results. I’m embarrassed to even say how much I’m down. “The market is going south very soon!” “Double down on your shorts.” “The coming calamity will be the worst in your lifetime–in a century–in a thousand years!”
Over and over, the same incessant message. And I’ve kept believing it, shorting and shorting. But Prechter called the prevous top and then the bottom–as he keeps reminding us. So he has to be right at some point. The market, for sure, will decline, and, I hope, sharply. If you keep calling the same direction, you have to be right at some point. Previously, Prechter was right within a month or so. Now he’s missed it by a year or so–and cost many of us so very much–in losses in the shorts and in profits foregone in alternative investments.
So the dilemma continues–to sell the shorts now? No way, as surely that will be the week–the day–even the hour– that the market turns. Holding and waiting and hoping to break even.
Whatever you do, do NOT subscribe.
Just go short. This is a beautiful time to do so, or so it appears; certainly a lot better than a year ago. And soon Prechter will be saying, “See, I told you so!” At least I hope I get to hear him say this, rather than, “Hmm, the market should have gone down. Slow torture as it defies what my charts tell me what it should have done.”
Now you can stop wondering why I gave Prechter and Hochberg the highest mark for consistency–they haven’t swerved from their message. Highest grades for being consistently wrong.

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PWConnelly
Guest
PWConnelly
February 8, 2011 3:32 pm

I subscribed to EWI’s short term update after reading the the book “Elliott Wave Principal” Since June of 09, the STU has been bearish and have claimed dozen’s of times that the top was in, ready for the next major Wave 3 down, etc. I cancelled my subscription in the late fall of 2010, and emailed the company a few questions regarding an alternative wave count. I never heard back from them. The short story is that these guys have been MAJOR Bears since June of 09. All you need to do is look at a chart to see why they’re not worth a dime.

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trader
Guest
trader
April 22, 2011 10:41 am

they have interesting materials & stories and calling tops everytime it is easy for them.I have been glued for over 2 yrs at their works,like an addict. Now I m paying the consequences of an addiction. they should be more precise with entries and exit and when things go wrong they should say “time to sell and get the loss, we wait for the next support”. the work it is fascinated with a good sense of what it can happen in the future but if you are a long or a swing traders or even a day trader the services is not for you. I like your work and how you present it, but it is a losing money services and not the one for growth.

busguy
Guest
busguy
July 28, 2011 1:26 am

The EW theory is intensely interesting and “should” be the premier trading indicator in the world. Unfortunately…

I have subscribed to the Elliot Wave Financial Forecast, EW Short Term, EW Theorist, EW Traders Flash Alerts (ETFs and Futures trades to make at once) and EW Intraday Index Forecasts (every hour a new forecast for the S&P, Dow, Nasdaq).

I had them for 6 mos. In May + June 2010, they were great. I was raking it in. They call you at home and email you when there would be a flash alert . Their messages “This is Elliot Wave announcing a new Trader’s Flash Alert…” were like exciting music! They were around 75-80% good trades. But starting in July, the average started going down, and I started losing money. They were at 35.7% good trades for all of Aug, Sept, Oct 1st 3 weeks, when I cxld. (Market was going up then)

Looking back, they are bears. Lots of predictions for market downturns. In May-June 2010, the trend was down. So their forecasts were very accurate. When the market went back up, not accurate. I could not successfully use the intraday forecasts to day trade. I spent many hours tracking them, and they were around 50-55% , not enough to trust my money on.

They seem to take the internals, and say the market SHOULD go down. Often they would keep saying that the big correction is just around the corner.

I kept reading their gold and silver forecasts that they would have big corrections. Gold at $1200, would go to $1000. Silver would go from $18 down to $12. I waited for these to buy more bullion. And waited, and waited. But the corrections never came, and I did not buy all the bullion I wanted. Now gold is at $1600, silver over $40.

One could give the excuse that there were and are a lot of bad internals, volatility, manipulation, Plunge Protection Team, market going to crash, due for a crash, trading ranges, difficult to time today’s markets, etc, etc. But the Elliot Wave Theory is supposed to account for all this, as EWI said in so many words on their website.

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anon
Guest
anon
November 12, 2011 7:20 am

If you like to lose money, this is a 5 star service. Great charts, but very bad in market timing, very bearish since I have signed up. The end of the world is always around the corner. Maybe one day after millions of bad calls they will be right.

Greg
Member
Greg
May 31, 2018 2:54 am

The short-term update is probably one of the weakest services available. Considering the high level and long-term nature inherent in the EWI’s service offering this short-term update is nothing short of fraudulent.

I’ve been using it for 6 months now and Steven Hochberg has quite literally not made a single correct call. He is however very quick to boast when something appears to be correct and they even advertise it on the homepage of their site. I find it incredibly unprofessional and a desperate attempt at trying to make money. My own personal wave counts have been more correct dozens of times. He simply doesn’t understand or refuses to do the work to make short-term wave counts accurate. He simply pulls up his hourly chart and has a quick look and the shape of the patter and writes a paragraph. It’s a joke. He flips flops 3 times a week in an attempt to cover his ass. Leaves one spinning with rage at this so called industry expert. He’s a copy and paste fraud who spends no more than 30 minutes each time he puts this together.

To be clear however I think the long-term Global perspective service is excellent and unique. I use it as a basis to identify trading opportunities and build trades. I would subscribe to this service and all Elliot Wave Theory if you’re interested in an alternative view of the history of markets. They package the short-term update with the EWFF and EWT so be careful not to dragged into that. You will lose a ton of money on the short-term update because not only is it incorrect but it is full of hubris to make it more exciting and sexy. Really blows my mind that somebody can be so consistently incorrect and still believe he’s doing the right thing constantly. Perhaps he simply thinks markets are that unpredictable and that everybody gets it wrong like that. Perhaps he just loves cashing those EWI cheques.

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