Canadian Oil — Hsu’s “Big Surge”?

By Travis Johnson, Stock Gumshoe, August 8, 2008

This is a little weekend refresher, for folks who might have missed the writeup the first time around. Robert Hsu has been touting a Canadian oil sands stock that is a play on China, since China is interested in buying their product or partnering with them.

And the company is a better buy now than a few weeks ago, since the fall in oil has brought a bargain buying opportunity … here’s what Hsu says in this latest email campaign, an ad I received yesterday, about the “urgency” of buying now, with oil dipping:

“Hold on to your hat because oil’s headed back up, and our Canadian tar-sand stock is first in line to profit. This stock shot up 70% in the last few weeks, but now it has pulled back as crude oil prices ease. This gives you a rare second chance to get in on this summer’s most surprising double.

“Don’t Wait For Oil’s Next Big Surge!

“I told my Asia Edge subscribers they’d kick themselves if they didn’t get into this Canadian tar-sands stock at $57. It’s now at $73 and we’re refueling for the next leg up to $150.”

He also sent out his ads touting this when the stock was at about $100 near the end of June, so it’s down about 25% from those levels (it’s at $75 today).

Still the same stock, though, and if you believe in the long term case for oil there’s still some value in their holdings — whether or not it’s worth the current price is up to you to decide, of course. And don’t ask me if oil is going to $140 or $100 next, I have no idea … though I tend to think it will be “expensive” for many years to come.

The shares are down markedly with oil falling, and trade at a current PE of about 14 and a forward PE of 8. I don’t know what oil price assumptions they make in estimating profits for these folks, but most analysts seem still to not model future oil prices much above $100 for their estimates, to be conservative, so there may be some potential there. The forward valuation is pretty similar to other large oil companies, and the dividend a bit smaller.

In case you didn’t remember the name of the stock, it’s Canadian Natural Resources (CNQ), and the full writeup is still available here from about six weeks ago.

Enjoy your weekend … and happy investing!

Related Gumshoe Articles

“Facebook of China to Deliver Your Next Double” (Robert Hsu)

Uncovering an Asia Edge tech teaser

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22 Comments on "Canadian Oil — Hsu’s “Big Surge”?"

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A.Nony Mouse
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A.Nony Mouse
August 9, 2008 1:06 am

In Hsu’s latest Asia Edge update, He has a SELL reco on, CNQ, RIO, & BVN, has downgraded MOS to hold.

spreadtrader
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spreadtrader
August 9, 2008 9:05 am

Good recommendations….except sell stops in BVN should have been hit 4/23, 6/10 or 7/23 at the very latest; RIO should have been sold 7/2 and CNQ should have exited the portfolio on 7/3. MOS should have been sold 8/4…..it’s likely headed to 93.00 or lower. The alternative to selling these stocks is buy puts.

Paul Yoquelet
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August 9, 2008 9:20 am

Please use Visa nd Mastercard along with your Paypal.

Gravity Switch
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August 9, 2008 9:30 am

Been seeing this a bit more from Investorplace (Hsu and Navellier, at least), teaser stocks being touted in ads after they’ve already been sold — when was that last Asia Edge update?

victork
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victork
August 9, 2008 11:55 am

Although I’ve been an “irregular” member for a while, I never post just read. Between Traviss’ sage wisdom, and member comments, I’ve learned more in a few months than the last several years.

This is the best site I’ve ever found “hands down”. Used to be a Motley Foll member, but just couldn’t stand the constant bull any longer!!!

Apparently I’m not alone. Follow the link to their latest teaser and read the member comments. http://www.fool.com/investing/small-cap/2008/08/01/the-next-stocks-you-should-buy.aspx

It’s pretty ugly.

Thanks you Travis and all that contribute!

Gravity Switch
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August 9, 2008 12:08 pm
Just FYI, there’s a solid article in Barron’s this weekend that mentions the haircut that almost all oil stocks have taken as oil has dipped 20% or so — and speculates that this might be a good buying opportunity, with a lot of them trading at forward PE multiples of 6-8. CNQ was one of those mentioned, along with Suncor in Canada, and most of the other big majors (ExxonMobil, BP) and a few others (Marathon, if memory serves). These companies are almost always fairly cheap, compared to the market, but to be this cheap the market has to be… Read more »
Carlo
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August 9, 2008 12:40 pm

A quick analysis about latest Hsu’s sells (BVN CNQ and RIO) can be found here: http://investorcrap.blogspot.com/2008/08/latest-mr-hsus-performance.html

John Sloan
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August 9, 2008 1:01 pm
Hi Travis and all. Interesting to me is that when oil future dropped Friday my Exxon, Chevron, Marathon and Valero all went UP. Marathon and Valero especially are hurt, not helped, by high crude prices. And while Exxon and Chevron of course profit from high crude their refining margins are hurt. For instance – latest Exxon report shows that their upstream earning went from $6,041 million in first quarter 2007 to $8,785 million in 2008 while their downstream earnings went from $1,912 million in 2007 to $1,166 million in 2008. At same time net production of crude and NGL fell… Read more »
SageNot
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SageNot
August 9, 2008 2:36 pm
FWIW Jude & others, the buying of options is much less risky than if you write (sell) options. The buyer only risks the premium paid. Don’t overlook the sharp dollar reversal, it’s knocking out some of the premium built into crude oil contracts. Note that Russia messing around with Georgia hardly dented the fall of crude last week, not to mention how many old Soviet Bloc countries now have that concern to put up with. Natural gas has fallen even faster & with fall/winter on the horizon, I’d focus more on the stocks that supply (& service) natural gas once… Read more »
Denby45
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Denby45
August 10, 2008 2:23 am
I fully believe that this drop in commodities will be short lived and a great oportunity has presented itself. I have been following one tar sands stock for a long time now and have loaded up every time it has been shorted down. The stock is CLL.TO Connacher Oil. They are in the process of ramping up to 10,000 barrels/day at their great Divide project and are about to release earnings on 12th Aug. There is also a pending approval for their second 10,000 barrel SAGD project ALGAR. They also have some conventional oil and gas and a refinery in… Read more »
spreadtrader
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spreadtrader
August 10, 2008 6:48 am
How “short lived”? For whatever reason, the markets are telling us that the boom in oil is at the very least in a corrective phase for now. The charts are saying it is not yet over with; therefore, the question is: HOW LONG must you hold stocks like Connacher that are somewhat speculative, pay no dividend and (at least for Connacher) has traded in a range of 3.00 for almost three years? At least a company in the same sector like FDG, Fording Canadian Coal Trust (not a recommendation because I don’t know enough about its fundamentals) is still in… Read more »
spreadtrader
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spreadtrader
August 10, 2008 8:37 am
OK………now I’m revved up about FDG as a potential trading vehicle and the comment about how selling premium is risky. Here’s a trade you should do on paper if you have little or no experience reading charts. It’s called a “collar”. Buy FDG (or any optionable stock you REALLY have to own) at 85.00 in 100 share lots. For every 100 you buy, also buy 1 January 2009 75.00 put for about $2.00; and sell 1 January 2010 95.00 call for about $4.00. You should get a credit for this trade that will more than cover your transaction costs. IF… Read more »
Denby45
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Denby45
August 10, 2008 11:25 pm
Spreadtrader, That looks to me like good advice and I guess some of the others might use the technique you have pointed out. Unfortunately I am not a trader of any sort and do not know enough about that game to participate. Maybe one day I will do the necessary to learn more but these days I am just too busy. It is more of a hobby for me although I have done OK so far and after three years still consider myself in a learning curve. Thing is I am not sure we should be comparing CLL to FDG… Read more »
spreadtrader
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spreadtrader
August 11, 2008 7:27 am
Hey, I’m still learning too, especially when it comes to stocks. However, the older I get the less it is a hobby. As someone else said in the forum…….your retirement may be at stake. I’m comparing CLL to FDG as members of the same broad energy sector. Both supply energy commodities. Certainly, there are major differences in the companies but after I get beyond the sector analysis, a chart is a chart; and in this unfavored sector FDG is the clearly better choice for me. After all, there are lots of stocks. Why bulk up on the wrong ones? Excellent… Read more »
spreadtrader
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spreadtrader
August 9, 2008 9:47 am

Yes, that will be interesting to see, because while CNQ is at major support on the DAILY chart, the WEEKLY chart says it will likely see 70.00, 65.00 and then 57.00 again before it ever sees 100.00. 57.00 is a mere 50% retracement over five years. These guys never give up on that “gotta buy it now” mantra….makes them look silly.

A.Nony Mouse
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A.Nony Mouse
August 9, 2008 3:38 pm

Latest Hsu update was this past Wednesday. Now Asia Edge is geared for stock picks to trade every 3-6 months unless momo indicates otherwise. China Strategy is for longer term. Rio, (the only stock in both portfolios) is rated a hold in China Strategy.

Gravity Switch
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August 9, 2008 10:51 am
If you mean for the Irregulars membership payments, you are more than welcome to pay with Visa or Mastercard, but Paypal is the only credit card processor I can use at the moment. You do not have to set up a balance with Paypal or use them for anything else, you can just pay with a credit card through their secure interface, but I understand that some folks don’t like it or can’t use it for whatever reason — and I am sorry to cause inconvenience if that’s the case. I’m happy to take checks if you prefer, address and… Read more »
Gravity Switch
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August 9, 2008 12:10 pm

Thank you, Victor, and thanks to everyone who reads, contributes or comments. Running this site and sharing my thoughts with a wonderful group of readers is a joy.

jude
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August 9, 2008 1:59 pm

Thoughts…China shut down hundreds if not thousands of industries for the Olympics because of the air quality. This is one of the reasons that oil usage went down along with it’s price….But afterwords….I’d say it’s going to be “balls to the walls” as far as future and continuing growth…ergo my guess [along with the armada of battleships going to Iran]would be that oil will not go down much more and in fact will start going back up again…I stayed long so will either cost avg. or do some puts[although at this stage of the game that would be dangerous]…jmo

spreadtrader
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spreadtrader
August 10, 2008 7:06 am

Just to give the devil his due, the chart in FDG, while “excellent” compared to CLL may still be flashing a warning of a decline to 68.00 and then 59.00. Anyone holding or contemplating the purchase of FDG should strongly consider the purchase of put options to protect their position. Stated otherwise, please don’t misunderstand my comments above. The energy sector is not in favor.

surferonice
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surferonice
August 11, 2008 9:37 am

Thought tck bought out fdg

spreadtrader
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spreadtrader
August 11, 2008 10:46 am

Oh yeah. I thought it was just a bid. Apparently there’s a deal now.

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