“A Big Yield Hunter’s Dream Pick” (Roger Conrad)

By Travis Johnson, Stock Gumshoe, July 26, 2011

Here’s the promise from Roger Conrad, in a teaser ad for his Big-Yield Hunting newsletter:

“11% Yield… AND a 27% Profit Gain, Too!

“It’s a Big Yield Hunter’s Dream Pick. Bad news baked into the price… a sustainable high yield… and a big price surge right around the corner!”

And I gotta tell you, that sounds pretty frickin’ enticing in these uncertain times — “sustainable high yield” just has a nice ring to it. So what’s he teasing us about?

Propane, mostly. This is apparently a company in the propane distribution business, which has long been a steady eddie business for some Master Limited Partnerhips (MLPs) that have gradually started to consolidate the still-very-fragmented US propane distribution and delivery business.

But it sounds like this isn’t an MLP — you can find MLPs with 11% yields, but they’re not the steady propane or pipeline groups, the most reliable of which tend to have distribution yields in the 5-8% range these days. So who is it?

Here’s the rest of our cavalcade of clues:

“This company is in the propane distribution business, and margins are pretty strong—about 40%. First-quarter 2011 numbers are looking way better than a year ago.

“It’s also in the specialty chemicals business, and its earnings actually grew 56.5% in the fourth quarter of 2010. I see a lot of value here, and the market simply overreacted to the dividend cut.

“I hope you won’t do that… because you now have the rare opportunity to tuck a real gem into your big yield portfolio. One that sports an impressive 11% yield and could easily see a 27% gain in 2011.

“Now its energy services division accounts for a lion’s share of the revenue. It’s definitely the workhorse. But the little show pony right now is its specialty chemicals division. It delivers chemicals needed in the pulp and paper industry, fertilizers and water treatment facilities, just to name a few.

“In fact, it’s the second-largest manufacturer of a number of these vitally-needed specialty chemicals. Management’s recent decision to expand production facilities is proving to be a very profitable one and sets the company up for greater profits in 2011 and 2012.”

Roger Conrad tells us that this is a stock that has “bottomed out” and that this is a great buying opportunity while the stock is down, with potential for capital gains to go along with that 11% yield.

So who is it? Well, I threw all that info into the mighty, mighty Thinkolator. It required a bit of rejiggering of the internal compass, because this pick is actually North of the border … but today Conrad is teasing … Superior Plus (SPB in Toronto, SUUIF on the pink sheets).

Superior Plus was, like many high-income Canadian investments, a trust — but unlike most of them, it converted to a corporation a couple years ago, on December 31, 2008, well before the trusts lost their tax protection. They do indeed distribute propane, though that’s not all that they do.

Superior is the biggest propane distributor in Canada, and has over the last couple years been expanding and trying to build up the Eastern Canada and Northeastern US businesses, mostly in propane but also in heating oil distribution and other energy services. They also do operate a specialty chemicals business, which includes US and Canadian assets as well as a production plant in Chile, and, a bit less sexily, a large North American building products business (construction materials like ceiling panels, and their own brand of insulation). For many years a bit more than half the profit has come from the energy distribution business, and that hasn’t changed — it has actually gotten more pronounced lately, so we’re now seeing more like 60% from energy distribution and 30% from chemicals, with the construction products and distribution business almost becoming marginalized in the last year or so thanks to the awful construction environment.

And yes, Superior Plus did cut their dividend when they announced the 4Q 2010 earnings — you can pick the date pretty easily on a chart, that was the day in February when their share price dropped by about $1.50. They’ve actually had several similar trading days in the last year, with some big spikes and collapses in the share price — I haven’t researched them all, but I would assume that they correlate with past earnings disappointments or projections.

This is a corporation, but it’s also true that they operate much more like an MLP or a trust — they consistently pay out far more in dividends than they earn as “accounting earnings” (meaning, after all the non-cash charges like depreciation, etc.), and they appear to base their shareholder dividend payments on their adjusted operating cash flow.

In that regard, they ought to be able to keep up the divvies — in cutting the dividend they also projected that they this adjusted operating cash flow number would come in between C$1.40 and $1.75, which means they ought to be able to sustain the dividend at the current rate. The current dividend is 10 cents per month, so C$1.20 per year — and yes, that does give us a yield of almost 11% on the current C$11.12 share price (OK, 10.7% if you want to be a non-rounding stickler).

And they see to want to continue to operate this way, here’s the verbiage from that same report when the dividend was cut:

“Superior is committed to paying out a substantial portion of free cash flow to shareholders and remain a high yield corporation. We have conservatively assessed our cash flow, capital requirements and balance sheet requirements in establishing this new dividend level.”

The things that caused them to project lower income and lower that dividend are principally a weak US housing market that’s cutting even further into their construction products and distribution business, and higher oil prices that are cutting demand for their energy products (remember, they’re mostly a distributor — they get a fee that’s probably largely volume-driven regardless of the price of oil or propane, but folks tend to turn down the thermostat and buy less when prices are high).

So is it worth buying? Well, the last quarter did show some signs of life — thanks largely to cold weather, it appears. And the outlook remains the same, so it does seem reasonable to expect the dividend to continue at the current rate — I don’t know whether or not we should expect to see a revaluation of the stock that would bring a 27% return, but it’s certainly possible … if the stock traded at C$14 it would have a yield more in line with US propane MLPs that are perceived to be a bit riskier like Ferrellgas (FGP) or Inergy (NRGY), which yield 8-9%, and still above the more stable AmeriGas (APU) or Suburban Propane (SPH), which pay out a bit less than 7% right now.

Superior Plus, not being an MLP, does not give you the same kind of tax-deferral bonus that many MLPs can, and it also presumably wouldn’t give you the dreaded (by some) K-1 form for your taxes — though I assume US investors would have to deal with the Canadian withholding tax (oughtta result in a foreign tax credit in most cases, though for a long time there was trouble when US investors earned Canadian dividends in tax-deferred accounts like IRAs — I hear that’s cleared up now but don’t really know, I’m no tax expert).

And they also carry more debt than most MLPs I’ve looked at, so that might be an additional item to look at — but from what I can see, I’m intrigued … I like the big propane/heating oil distribution business that has a brand name and entrenched customers, and it sounds like the chemical business is helping them to grow cash flow, there are definitely worse things you can do than collect an 11% yield while you wait for construction recovery and/or organic growth or accretive acquisitions (propane distributors on the US side, at least, are still mostly small local companies — lots of room for bolt-on acquisitions if they’re interested). I Don’t know the company that well yet but, my antennae are tingling just a little as I start looking it over — if you’ve got info to share or an opinion to throw out on Superior Plus, I’m sure we’d all like to hear it … that’s why we have that friendly little comment box below.

P.S. I’m obviously not specifically recommending Superior Plus to you, but yes, to answer the question that almost always comes out when I write about foreign listed stocks: I’m fine with buying companies like these on the pink sheets.

There are lousy pink sheets stocks out there, to be sure, and lots of pump-and-dump operations, but the companies that have a full listing elsewhere (Canada, Hong Kong, London, etc.) and just happen to have a pink sheets listing for the convenience of US investors who want to buy the stocks are largely fine in my book — as long as I like the underlying company, of course. The key to remember when trading stocks like these, if you so choose, is that you get better liquidity (more trading volume) on the home exchange, so you’d probably save a couple cents buying and selling in Toronto over the pink sheets shares. When trading stocks with London or Hong Kong or Australia home listings it can be tougher to get a fair price or to make a trade, since the fair price is unknown for most (or all) hours that US trading is active, but for Canada it’s easy as pie — just check the fair price in Toronto (TMX.com is one source), convert the currency (xe.com is one source), and use a limit order for the pink sheets shares if you decide you want to own a share of a Canada-listed company. It’s the same share of the same company, just carries a different trading symbol so you can hold it in your US brokerage account.

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8 Comments on "“A Big Yield Hunter’s Dream Pick” (Roger Conrad)"

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Mike
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Mike
July 26, 2011 4:00 pm
Mr. Conrad also has a monthly report called Canadian Edge, which covers many Canadian high yield companies. Superior Plus Corp (SPB/OTC: SUUIF) Retirement of CEO Grant Billing shouldn't affect stabilization, long-term growth prospects. Extension of credit facility, steady results in most operations should ensure decent numbers for Q2. 11.82 10.8 0.11 Monthly 07/27/2011 44 49 3 Buy @12 The above #s are: Price, Yield, Monthly payment (should be 0.11), Paydate, %of EPS paid out, %debt/assets, Rating (6 is best, 1 is riskiest). and lastly the Buy@US$12 or below. I like this report, and have made some very good investments based… Read more »
RootiePEI
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RootiePEI
July 26, 2011 5:27 pm

Superior Propane was owned as part of the Irving group of companies . Irving name is well respected in eastern Canada for Cavendish Farms, Irving Oil, etc.

EDIT: Sorry, i posted too quick. I should of checked my facts, actually Irving sold it in 2008.

mike
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mike
July 26, 2011 9:03 pm

There was a good reason for Obama to oppose raising the debt ceiling in 2006. We were not in a recession then and there was no excuse for the deficits Bush was running up. The 2008 recession changed drastically the need for deficit spending to arrest the thing.

Lorne
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Lorne
July 27, 2011 9:24 am

An added bonus from investing in Canada is if the US doesn't get its budget act in order, the U.S. dollar will continue to drop against the Cdn. dollar and U.S. investors have an opportuntiy for added income from Cdn. currency appreciation. Then again, perhaps Congress will come to its senses and the U.S. dollar will stop its collapse.

Nmcampbell
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Nmcampbell
July 30, 2011 8:03 am

I have a test case going with merrill Lynch as to foreign tax witholding on this stock.

Robert
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Robert
September 29, 2011 6:27 am

So anyone know the canadian withholding tax percentage ? Thanks.

Gravity Switch
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July 27, 2011 9:34 am
True enough, a declining US$ versus C$ generally makes the shares look better for US investors — though some of their business (some construction materials and their Northeast energy distribution biz) is in the US and they're trying to grow the US business, so for Canadian investors that's a slight drag (it's still a pretty small part of their business). For US investors, that part pretty much comes out in the wash (they earn US$, it's worth a little less when they translate it into Canadian$, maybe drives the shares lower, then US investors translate the Canadian$ share price back… Read more »
nmcampnbell
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nmcampnbell
July 30, 2011 8:05 am

When no one will will give us any more credit Obama and all the free wheelers will get theirs!

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