“Unknown Blockbuster Getting Ready to Double” (Zambell)

By Travis Johnson, Stock Gumshoe, January 13, 2011

It’s been a little while since I wrote about a Nancy Zambell teaser — she writes the Buried Treasures Under $10 newsletter, and in the short history of that letter she’s apparently had pretty good performance … and, one expects, makes it sound even better than it was (the letter launched two years ago, almost at the very bottom of the market crash doldrums, so returns from then have been pretty remarkable for everyone).

And she says that this year, you can “Pocket five times more profit than even the bulls expect this year, or I’ll pay you back!”

By which I’m sure she means that she’ll refund your newsletter subscription fee — not that she’ll help recoup your losses if she chooses some bad stocks. Here’s how she says her subscribers are doing, and what she means by the “beat the bulls 5-to-1” bit:

“Yes, even the most sober expectations for 2011 are bullish and the bar is set high, but I’ll still make good on my promise to beat those high-powered bulls five times over. Or I’ll pay you.

“Barron’s expects S&P stocks to gain 10% this year, and that — and all the other good news coming our way — will comfort many, but it won’t make them rich.

“Unlike most investors, my subscribers (soon, I hope, including you) would be horrified if their stocks went up a mere 10%.

“That’s because they’re already averaging 50% profits!”

She says that she does this for her subscribers by picking “carefully selected off-radar small caps just before they surge” and selling when the surge “levels off.”

And, of course, she has identified some new “unknown blockbusters” — and she’ll tease us with a few details to entice us to subscribe to her newsletter. I’m going to take a look at the first one of these today, but there are two teased (will get to the other soon if there’s some interest). Here’s how she introduces ’em:

“I’ve just uncovered two new unknown blockbusters getting ready to double.

“These bull beaters make the Internet better, but in vastly different ways.

“One is a pioneer in Internet security. The other makes life much easier for all of us, as my exclusive new report, Double Your Money Twice on the Hidden Internet Pioneers Of 2011 makes clear.”

OK, so whether we get returns of 50% or a double, either way that sounds quite lovely … right? So just in case she’s right about these, let’s check out the clues and see if we can name that stock!

Bull Beater #1: Profit from a huge threat facing the world: Internet security ….

“Corporations — and governments — worldwide are worried sick over IT security. And they should be. Data breaches are enormously expensive and dangerous.

“So what happens? Budgets for Internet security get beefed up across the board. They’ve already shot up from 3.1% of the total tech budgets in 2001 to a hefty 5% today.

“What was a $60 billion market in 2009 is exploding at a rate of 12% through 2013, making global IT security one smoking red-hot sector.”

Interesting — I’ve been meaning to learn a bit more about some of the tech security firms, they do indeed seem to be in a sector with built-in growth (though that doesn’t, of course, guarantee profits for anyone), and we have seen tech security stocks teased a few times before.

She also throws in the “smart phone” buzzword, noting that this brings in a whole new world of security threats and business.

How about some specific details to help us nail down this particular Zambell favorite?

“Company sales doubled to $6.3 million in 2005. In 2010, sales are estimated to come in at $29.6 million. That’s quite impressive growth!

“The industry is growing at a 21.47% clip, but Bull Beater #1 is growing sales at a 42.79% pace — nearly double industry peers, and nearly five times faster than the 9.04% growth rate of S&P 500 stocks.

“As you read on, you’ll be amazed that this behind-the-scenes IT security pioneer is yours for $4. Talk all you want about super bargains. I’d rather talk about profits!”

OK, so a $4 stock and sales of only $29.6 million — we can guess that it’s probably quite tiny. Some more details for our tease?

“The company is estimated to make $0.04 per share for 2010, and in 2011 earnings per share estimates are a whopping $0.21 — more than fives time more!

“My technical indicators are screaming BUY NOW too!

“And those proven indicators don’t even take into consideration one of the company’s most valuable assets: The TCG.

“TCG stands for Trusted Computing Group, an industry standards organization made up of leading computer and device manufacturers, software vendors and other computing product manufacturers. Its goal is to make all computers less vulnerable to viruses and malware that can shut down entire networks.

“Bull Beater #1 is a permanent member of this powerful group, meaning this little unknown has a direct line into not only the latest school of thought on IT security but also a very powerful tool to create lucrative relationships with many of the most important and biggest corporations in the IT security sector.”

OK, so that’s what we get by way of clues. Let’s toss ’em into the hopper of the mighty, mighty, Thinkolator, shall we? Just me? OK, I’ll do it for you … there we go, and our answer comes spitting out the other side:

This must be: Wave Systems (WAVX)

The clues are nearly a perfect match, though that sales number that she teases from 2005 is actually from 2007. And the stock has been on a tear for the last couple days, perhaps in part because of her teaser ad, which I started seeing on Tuesday, and in large part, probably, because the company has been on a PR tear — their CEO, Steven Sprague was on CNBC this morning and must have said something awfully optimistic (I didn’t see it, but they pitch him as the man who wants to “change the internet forever,” so he probably wasn’t shy), and they’re speaking at an investment conference this afternoon.

So the buzz has certainly been building for this stock, which has gone from a $4 pick to a $5+ pick in short order, I don’t think I had ever heard of them before today, and though they are of a reasonable size (market cap now closing in on $400 million) they don’t really have any analyst coverage to speak of. There must be at least one analyst, since I have seen enough to confirm that someone predicts four cents in earnings for 2010 and 21 cents for 2011, as Zambell teases, but I think it’s just one analyst, who put a “buy” rating on the shares and a $6 price target back in June.

Here’s how the company describes itself on their website:

“Wave Systems is a leading provider of client and server software for hardware-based digital security, enabling organizations to know who is connecting to their critical IT infrastructure, protect corporate data, and strengthen the boundaries of their networks. Wave’s core products are based around the Trusted Platform Module (TPM), the industry-standard hardware security chip that is included as standard equipment on most enterprise-class PCs shipping today.”

Which, frankly, does not mean all that much to me. If you’d like to see what they’re saying now about the business, their presentation at the Needham Growth Conference at 2:50 this afternoon will probably be online and archived, you can link to it from their presentations page here if you like (or see their older ones, including their last quarterly call). They are an internet security company, and they seem to be focused primarily on hardware security that’s built into, for example, corporate fleets of laptops.

There was an article a couple weeks ago at TheStreet.com about WAVX and a new contract expansion, and in that they speculated about reasons for the stock languishing in recent years, including the need for a lot of capital raising that has diluted shareholders — though not diluted earnings, per se, since if they end up showing a profit for 2010 that will be their first profitable year. You can see their third quarter earnings press release here, which includes some chatter from the CEO about the importance of their participation in the Trusted Computing stuff and about the importance of reinvesting in R&D (which also helps explain why they didn’t turn a profit, despite a pretty nice revenue increase in that quarter).

Since a lot of their revenue comes in from licensing fees when systems are sold with their security solutions built in, that would indicate that there is at least some potential for turning this into a high-margin business if they have some sort of valuable intellectual property that is in demand — but I don’t know anything about who their competitors are in this specific product line (I’m assuming there are some). The shares are certainly really, really expensive compared to the big, established internet security companies like Symantec (SYMC) and Verisign (VRSN), but their business isn’t necessarily directly comparable to those — and they are, of course, far smaller so a bump up in business could more easily turn into growth that delights shareholders.

So, this is a small internet security company focused on hardware solutions and receiving quite a lot of buzz right now — not just from Zambell, but from the more mainstream investment media, too. Do they deserve it? Worth some of your money? That’s your call, but let us know if you’ve got an opinion on the shares — or if you are one of the probably very large group of folks who understand the data security business far better than I do and can share an opinion on Wave Systems’ products or potential. The friendly little comment box below awaits your input!


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27 Comments on "“Unknown Blockbuster Getting Ready to Double” (Zambell)"

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Marc P
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Marc P
January 13, 2011 11:59 am

I have been a subscriber to Nancy's newsletter for just over a year and she has had a pretty good record of picking winners.
That said, I lost a lot of money on WAVX during the tech boom, when George Gilder was pushing the stock because he was on the board. It has never been profitable, but things change, so on Nancy's rec I dipped my toe back in and made a small purchase. So far, it's been up, but that could be because of her rec.
Due your DD before diving into this one.

Mike
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Mike
January 13, 2011 12:07 pm

WAVX looks like a pump and dump to me. Huge run up in the first 30 minutes of trading today, amature hour. Will see what happens later today.

streek53
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streek53
January 13, 2011 12:33 pm
Has this one got anything to do with the Chinese hackers hitting American (and other) banks, grocery chains, etc, to hack credit card numbers, reportedly billions of times a day? There's a "video" (which these days seems to mean that there won't be any video involved, just a sales pitch that lasts up to a half hour or more… although more are allowing you the "stay on this page option," although more and more this amounts to a much shorter and to the point place where you can enter your contact/payment right there and go on to join whatever) about… Read more »
Chuck
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Chuck
January 13, 2011 1:20 pm

This was a hot stock during the internet boom. It just never turned into a profit-maker and the price languished. Their hardware focus puts them in their own category, and that's the attraction. If they start making money, with recurring revenue from each transaction, they could make big bucks at some point. We'll just have to wait and see if they can accomplish that.

achten_s
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achten_s
January 13, 2011 1:30 pm
Here's a"teaser" from Agora's "5-Minute Forecast" Anyone have a clue??? [Paste-in follows] " “At long last,” Patrick Cox wrote his Breakthrough Technology Alert readers yesterday, “we can begin to view the No. 1 cause of death — aged hearts and vascular systems — as a preventable disease. “The ability to restore the heart, vascular and immune systems to full youthful health, using the donors’ own cells, has so many enormous implications.” One of the tiny companies Patrick follows unveiled plans last week to accelerate the development of a revolutionary treatment for both heart disease and autoimmune disorders. How much will… Read more »
Lisa
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Lisa
January 13, 2011 3:17 pm

Hi,
I'm not a US citizen and working in Kuwait. I'm trying to open a brokerage account. Can anyone recommend a good and reliable broker please.
Thanks in advance.

Myron Martin
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Myron Martin
January 13, 2011 3:35 pm
One has to wonder how crazy the "medical cures" for preventable diseases is going to get. How many average working people could afford to spend anywhere close to $100,000. for a treatment that at best would extend their life by 4 months. Of course the drug companies are probably hoping that the cost gets "socialized" by Obamacare picking up the tab, whether it bankrupts the country or not. Oh, I forgot, the country is already bankrupt, they just haven't made a formal declaration yet. I f they spent half the money on nutritional education, taxed all junk food (and drinks)… Read more »
John Charles Aruzian
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January 13, 2011 4:43 pm
This is lengthy, and probably boring, from a new paying Member: In the "old days", there was always the "wild card" which could adversely affect any decision, and it probably had a 10% probability of causing some effect on your decision. Thanks to technology (especially communications), that probability, in my opinion, is now 50%! You invest in a profitable company where all the fundamentals say, GO", and then the CEO falls off his horse (literally), or a Wall Street Analyst wakes up grumpy and takes it out on the company, or a disgruntled employee posts some negative data on facebook,… Read more »
Shuey
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Shuey
January 13, 2011 5:25 pm

John Charles:
“KISS” is great, but please don’t overdo it by (apparently) leaving out at least one sentence in your last paragraph.
Cheers.

hedy1234
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hedy1234
January 14, 2011 9:58 am

For those that get distracted, just hit the "Print this Article" link at the top and you will have a nice clean page to read. Most handy!

Mark
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Mark
January 14, 2011 5:52 pm

To John Charles Aruizian:

For a "clean" read, go to this site and then keep the link on your bookmarks bar.
http://lab.arc90.com/experiments/readability/

You'll be able to read Travis' commentary only with nothing else plus the font will be bigger and the margins can be very wide if you like.

streek53
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streek53
January 16, 2011 3:51 pm
Fab lyrics to a Warren Zevon ("Werewolves of London") song that I ran up while searching for verification of Lenny Bruce's line (apparenty Dylan borrowed it on down the road; then again, Dylan wrote "Highway 61," which Johnny Winter perfected… and I'm good with that): money doesn't talk… it swears (didn't use the line, but still enjoyed the ride): For My Next Trick I'll Need a Volunteer I can saw a woman in two But you won't want to look in the box when I do I can make love disappear For my next trick I'll need a volunteer I… Read more »
james moylan
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January 17, 2011 11:06 pm

I have a web site where I research stocks under five dollars. I have many years of experience with these type of stocks. I am so glad that their are more and more investors that are learning that penny stocks can be very profitable. newsletters like nancy zambells drive home this point. I have had great success with stocks under 5 dollars. I bought a stock called overhill farms 14 years ago that traded at 25 cents a share when I bought it. today the stock trades at 6 dollars a share and I still own the stock.

frank
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April 23, 2014 4:21 pm

This is crazy how this thread keeps going, these stock tip sites no no more than the person next to you, stick to the buffet method long term baby

http://www.originalbakersdozen.com

jkreming
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jkreming
January 13, 2011 1:54 pm

Add it to the forum and lets see…

Ann
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Ann
January 15, 2011 6:53 am

I think it's ACTC Advanced Cell Technology. They have a patented process to remove stem cells without effecting the embryo. They are the only company that has 2 fda trials approved to put stem cells in the eye to improve eyesight in patients with staargaarts and dry macular degeneration. They also have generated blood platelets made from embryonic stem cells. The LA Times just did a story on them http://www.latimes.com/health/boostershots/la-heb
and they presented at the JP Morgan Bio conference. The stock closed Friday at .172.
The bottom seems to be .16. Be kind this is my first post.

Steve
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Steve
January 13, 2011 5:33 pm

Hi Lisa: I use Scottrade, have used it for over 10 years and am and always have been very happy with their service. Steve

Robert Berke
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Robert Berke
January 13, 2011 7:05 pm

There aren't any.

Lisa
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Lisa
January 13, 2011 7:23 pm

Thanks a lot Steve. I'll take your advise and open an account tomorrow.

Lisa
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Lisa
January 13, 2011 7:28 pm

advice rather

streek53
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streek53
January 16, 2011 3:42 pm

But Scot sure screwed us with their new and NOT improved stock charts, huh? They trashed a perfectly good system for this crap. Apparently designed by their worst enemy… or, at least, that would explain everything…

Let me count the ways…

1, 2, 3,… eleventy-seven…

John Charles Aruzian
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January 13, 2011 10:51 pm
Hi Shuey My System seems to be dropping and re-arranging lately…it started immediately after I paid an "expert" to make it run faster…. The sentence should read, "Web site designers are no more designers than rough carpenters are Architects". There are several areas of knowledge necessary to deign sites including, but not limited to, "Mental" Ergonomics (MY term for it) and Sales Psychology (Or whatever term you like for motivating people to an action). Site Designers, who are, in my opinion, just low level HTML coders and/or people who know their way around site building databases, appear to be like… Read more »
Gravity Switch
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January 13, 2011 10:56 pm

Hi JCA — I do need to get around to cleaning up the site a bit, it's been a couple years since it was redesigned, (though I'm sure no layout will please everyone). If you just want a clean copy of the text, you should be able to click on the “print” link for any article and get a plain copy of that article without the bells and whistles formatted for clean printing (though you don't have to actually print it if you don't want to).

Jimmy Dunn
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Jimmy Dunn
January 15, 2011 6:31 am

Brasilians are not much for suing – it's a difficult and complex process there and they have almost no ambulance chaser John Edwards type contingency sleazeballs.
I like Brasil! Also, I highly recommend Embraer(ERJ) the manufacturer of 90-120 passenger regional jets.

streek53
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streek53
January 16, 2011 3:39 pm

Hey, Ann,

You seem to be part of the solution, not the problem, so more power to ya.

Have a lovely day.

Andrea
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Andrea
January 25, 2011 10:32 am

Would you mind sharing the website? I prefer small caps myself. Check into PLUG I think it has potential. They already have a contract with Walmart in Canada and chances are they will get one with Walmart in the US.

Bruce
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Bruce
January 28, 2011 1:50 am

James,
kindly post your website address

wpDiscuz