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Update: Casey’s “Lawyers canceled our trip to a secret oil drilling site”

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[update: Yeah, as of late September we're taking back this admission of a mistake -- we were right all along, the Casey folks just threw us off with a red herring, as is clear in the subsequent ads that they are now using to pitch this same idea, now looking at mid-October as the time when results will come in after the initial drilling hit some trouble and delays. I still don't own the stock as of September 26 and haven't traded it, and won't until at least October]

I originally wrote an article about this Casey Energy Report tease following the first wave of teasers from the Casey folks, on August 20 — since then, they added some more detail to the teaser pitch that made my solution not fit, so we’ll take a mea culpa and accept this as our mistake for 2013. I’m willing to release one incorrect teaser solution each year before I begin the process of self-flagellation, so we keep our 99%+ accuracy rate but, as always, we are not infallible.

So what’s the story? The Casey folks had a pitch for their Casey Energy Report about the “Next Bakken” — a very early stage exploration company with a large land position and expected drilling results in mid-September. These are the clues they gave initially in their first teasers:

“Over the last year this little company has quietly assembled a 2-million-acre concession in a region whose geological conditions for the production of oil and gas are actually far more promising than those in the Bakken….

“In July, one director of the company, who is also the CEO of a major Canadian oil player, bought 200,000 shares at the market – bringing his holdings of the company’s stock to a total of 1,235,237 shares.”

Which pointed the Mighty, Mighty Thinkolator directly at PRD Energy (PRD.V, PREGF) — they’re working on rejuvenating oil production on about two million acres, using unconventional technologies (horizontal drilling, etc. — I guess we have to start calling those “conventional” now). And more importantly, we had an exact match on those shareholders, here’s what I wrote three weeks ago:

Irregulars Quick Take
Paid members get a quick summary of the stocks teased and our thoughts here. Join as a Stock Gumshoe Irregular today (already a member? log in at top right)

And yes, they are expecting to have short-term results from their first well, which they call Boerger 7A, in mid-September — so the September 16 projected catalyst fit as well. That well is a farm-in they’re earning on a GDF Suez property, and they hope to use this drilling to acquire more data about these kinds of reservoirs as well as earning in their 50% share of the project by spending the money required to drill and get seismic data.

So … sounds like a perfect match, right? Marin Katusa, a Casey analyst, has even recommended them in the past, and he has written in the last six months that he’s looking at “next Bakken” opportunities in the heart of Europe, which would also connect us to PRD. I was convinced.

But then some versions of the ad changed up a bit. The original version is still the same, you can see it here — the same ad they pitched started on August 20, as far as I can tell. Still a perfect match for PRD Energy.

(Back in April, Katusa said: “we believe that we have a company in our portfolio that is just as good: a junior exploration company that is sitting in the heart of Europe. By applying new technology to old fields and old wells, it may very well be sitting on the next Bakken.”)

But dammit if they didn’t throw in another clue in a separate letter that was sent out several days later — that second letter took away the reference to the insider buying but kept the two million acres, and added a clue that conflicted with my first answer. You can see the second version of the teaser pitch here, it’s not up on Casey’s site but someone else published the email. Here’s the offending paragraph:

“Until the company has completed its flow tests and made a public announcement, other than saying it’s in the Southern Hemisphere, we can’t share any details about the company – or even the country where the ‘next Bakken’ is located.”

And, um, no — Germany (where PRD’s fields are) is not in the Southern Hemisphere.

So, resisting the urge to be petulant forever, we went searching for another match.

There are plenty of places around the world who have big potential shale oil deposits, there’s been precious little shale exploration (and even less exploitation) anywhere outside of North America — so if we assume that these two ads are touting the same little stock, what’s another candidate?

A refresh of the clues?

  • An insider, who is a CEO of a different Canadian energy company, owns 1,235,237 shares after buying 200,000 in July.
  • They have a concession of roughly two million acres, acquired over the last year or so, in a “region whose geological conditions for the production of oil and gas are actually far more promising than those in the Bakken”
  • They are expected to have flow test results from a well sometime in mid-September, on or near the teased September 16 date.
  • And for the second version of this tease, they now say the drilling is in the Southern Hemisphere in a “resource rich” country (and they don’t mention that insider buying bit in the second version).

Need to hear some of the rest of the tease, just to refresh your memory? Here’s a bit:

“Just a few days ago, a hastily assembled team including Chief Energy Investment Strategist Marin Katusa and Casey Research Managing Director David Galland were preparing to fly to a secret location. A location where a small oil company is about to drill the first oil well into what appears to be a massive new oil bonanza.

“But at the last minute, the oil company’s lawyers canceled the trip and imposed a total communication blackout. They did so out of concern that regulators would think having the Casey Research team on site gave our subscribers an unfair advantage…

“… our energy analysts believe the company may have as much or even more potential than those companies that made billions in the now legendary Bakken formation….

“Be Ready: We Expect the Initial Drilling Results on or Around Monday, September 16″

Now, the very nature of small exploratory stocks like whatever this one turns out to be, and like Africa Oil before they hit oil in their first hole, means that you have to accept a pretty high likelihood of failure and stock volatility. That’s likely why they’re waiting on results before they send this special report to their subscribers, or at least that’s my impression from the ad — though they also say that members of the Casey Research team are invested in this stock through an investment fund, so it seems someone believes it’s worth a flyer before they make that expected announcement next month. Who knows, maybe they’ve already mentioned it to their subscribers and they’re just holding off on a glowing recommendation until the drilling results come in.

So there you have it. What’s the stock?

Well, there isn’t one. Not in the Southern Hemisphere, and not that can be found by even a fully refreshed and awake Thinkolator — you can’t match all of those clues and the Southern Hemisphere together and come up with anything particularly interesting.

So … I still suspect that they’re following PRD Energy (PRD in Canada on the venture exchange, PREGF on the pink sheets)… but I can’t say I’m sure anymore, not with that Southern Hemisphere red herring in there. Think of this as a decision in a civil trial, not a criminal one: I’m going with the “preponderance of the evidence” decision here, not the “beyond a reasonable doubt.”

It could be someone else, to be sure — Tag Oil (TAO in Canada, TAOIF on the pink sheets) in New Zealand comes close on some fronts, but they don’t have any CEOs of Canadian companies on their board, nor have they had any insider buys to speak of this Summer (and no one owns that exact number of shares). The other oft-cited possibility is New Zealand Energy (NZ.V in Canada, NZERF on the pink sheets) — but they don’t have any CEOs of large Canadian companies on the board, either, nor have they had that specific insider buying behavior (they do have over two million acres, and they are expecting some flow tests to give them more data about their potential in the unconventional basins on the east side of the North Island — the same area where Tag is also looking for future growth. Tag has had concerns about declining production of late, and New Zealand Energy is trying to make a pretty big acquisition so they need to raise some money, but I haven’t monitored them all that closely otherwise.

PRD Energy shares have gone up by about 50% since the Casey teaser campaign started on August 20, probably in part because our coverage amplified the impact of their teaser ad on the stock (we didn’t charge $800 to tell you the solution to the clues, so we probably had a few more readers). PRD is a company that’s exploring for oil and gas in Germany on just under two million acres, largely in areas with known past-producing or past-explored oil fields that haven’t yet seen horizontal drilling or other new extraction technologies (they say they don’t require fracking to be profitable, which may be important), and it has a market cap of now about $90 million.

The director who recently upped his stake to 1,235,237 shares is Grant Fagerheim, who is also CEO of Whitecap Resources, a much larger ($1+ billion) Canadian producer that’s profitable and pays a dividend. They also have some folks on the board and in their technical team who have Bakken and Alberta experience, and they specifically compare the opportunity to the Bakken in their promotional materials (the New Zealand guys do that, too, as does anyone with any kind of shale prospect around the world).

And yes, they are expecting to have short-term results from their first well, which they call Boerger 7A, in mid-September — that’s a farm-in they’re earning on a GDF Suez property, and they hope to use this drilling to acquire more data about these kinds of reservoirs as well as earning in their 50% share of the project by spending the money required to drill and get seismic data. Here’s the pertinent bit of their latest operational update about this potential catalyst:

“Mobilization of the drilling rig is well underway and PRD expects to begin drilling on August 2 or 3, 2013. Drilling will start from a depth of 680 meters and continue to a total vertical depth of approximately 1,800 meters with a 300 meter horizontal leg. Drilling is expected to be completed in August. Depending on drilling results, the Company expects to announce short-term production test results in mid-to-late September.”

That news has not yet come out. Don’t know if it will really hit on September 16 or not — and, of course, it might not be good news.

Their investor presentation is pretty compelling in making the case for the opportunity in these old German oil fields, many of which haven’t produced for 20 years, but, of course, it’s an investor presentation — its job is to be compelling. And as is teased in the pitch, they have indeed built up this portfolio of concessions relatively quickly and quietly, the vast majority of their acreage was added over the past year.

I’m not buying or selling this one (or either of the New Zealand companies), and of course I’m not telling you to buy or not to buy it, but it’s still the best match for the stock the Casey folks say they’re going to analyze for Casey Energy Report subscribers following the drilling results next month, and the version of the ad they’re sending out these days again fails to mention the Southern Hemisphere clue that threw us all into a tizzy on August 26.

I can’t explain why that teaser pitch about the Southern Hemisphere got added on to make the clear and specific match no longer a match, but coincidences are certainly possible — maybe there is another company that matches all of those disparate clues from the two different teaser pitches … or maybe the ad that mentioned the Southern Hemisphere was a mistake or an intentional red herring (remember, the ad with the Southern Hemisphere did not mention the insider ownership specifics).

So I’ll toss it out to you — If any of the other Gumshoes out there can find a match for us of a company that is sitting on roughly two million acres of oil exploration concessions with some drilling or flow test results expected in the next couple weeks, that has a board member who is also CEO of a Canadian energy company, who bought 200,000 shares in July and now owns 1,235,237 shares, and is drilling for oil somewhere in the Southern Hemisphere, I’ll upgrade you to a lifetime membership in the Stock Gumshoe Irregulars for free (just in time! I’ll be reporting for the Irregulars from the Value Investing Congress next week). If you’re already a lifer, I’ll find something else to give you.

I’ve kept all of the comments from our original August 20 article below, including some speculation about those New Zealanders and some other commentary — feel free to add your notes to the pile.

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101 Responses to Update: Casey’s “Lawyers canceled our trip to a secret oil drilling site”

  1. Classic. What person is up at this hour, reading newsletters and sober?
    BTW the surest way to lose money in the markets? Drunk trading.
    Keep up the work good. lol

  2. I’m up reading it, and I’m sober! Of course I’m on the graveyard shift, but that’s besides the point. If Fagerheim has a huge stake in this company, isn’t that a pretty good endorsement for where he thinks the potential of this play is going?

  3. I find it very , very interesting, since the germans NEVER let’ anybody even build a farmhouse on their oh so precious land , even today hell has to start freezing before anybody gets permission to break open new land, let alone for such a ” dirty’” company.BUT , could it be that germany ( pressured by being euro -land’s financier) is pressured into letting this go ahead ? Hard to tell. but apparently they are ” exploring ” old wells, and that is in essence not ” new land” .I will keep my eye on this one, since no one would suspect Germany to have large oil field in their backyard, specially these days , what with all those German tree huggers, LOL. very interesting , Thanks thinkolator, i read this teaser just yesterday! and was wondering when you’d jump on this one. And how about Africa oil, is it still worth jumping on? Or how does one acquire royalty interests on those?

    • Das Konsortium führt das Projekt Börger 7a unter berg-
      und fachbehördlicher Aufsicht entsprechend den sehr
      hohen Standards zum Schutz von Mensch und Umwelt
      durch, die für E&P-Projekte in Deutschland gelten.

      high standards for environmental control

  4. I’m glad you covered this, not because I care for Casey’s stuff, but this one had one of the best pitches I’ve seen in a while. So thanks for the heads up. Casey is always entertaining but not always such a great idea.

  5. I lived in Germany for several years while serving in the US Artillery. You can’t even wash your car at home because they are worried about pollution. It is very hard to believe they will let anyone even utter the word hydrofracturing much less let them do it.
    Then again I was the one that said Tesla would not do very well so .

  6. I was one who bailed on Africa Oil when the price started to recover after seeing large paper losses shortly after purchase, still licking that wound.
    Casey’s energy newsletters have been pretty much sleeping material for several years, so if this is the real deal it’s no wonder they’re putting the PR machine to work.
    Then again, it could be just the PR machine trying to get things moving after a multi-year slump.
    They’ve been looking for Uranium (and the stocks) to start recovering for quite a few months too, who knows, maybe after the Summer doldrums?
    Not being an expert on Germany, I too would be hesitant to invest if it turns out that’s where it is. Everything I hear from them is way to eco-minded to allow even the smallest of drills but maybe the promise of black gold can change things.


    • Germany is down dramatically from its peak production years, but they still do produce some oil — not really a meaningful amount, given their huge consumption, but some. For what it’s worth, the company’s presentation says they don’t require fracking to be profitable — don’t know if that’s really true, or how they can know at this point when they haven’t even gotten their first flow test, but that’s what they say.

  7. It’s already jumped 16% from yesterday’s 60 cent close. Was thinking of making this my annual gamble but will now wait a week or so to see what happens with this recent activity.

  8. Drilling in Africa is one thing, and I bought Africa Oil when Gumshoe presented it and sold half for a great profit some months later and hold the other half- somewhat down from its high but still way higher than bought. But in Africa you can do what you want without much constraint. I would worry about Germany in contrast and even if they can get some flow without fracking, (and be barely profitable) the comparisons to the Baken (huge profits) are not likely to prove real without fracking. If the Germans don’t allow fracking you will be hard pressed to change their minds. As a joke I heard says, “you can always tell a German, you just can’t tell them much” (ok it is a joke, and in a way a compliment to the German intellect so don’t get upset – just laugh)

  9. Well done Travis and the mighty thinkolator! There seemed so little to go on to crack this tease but you did it.! I am not a big fan of CER after being a subscriber from 2010 to 2012(you can see my review to the right!) and this tease irked me a little by name dropping Africa Oil as a great pick of Marin Katusa’s. It’s true he did pick this stock well before it hit a home run but what they don’t tell you is that he had a sell on this stock for CER subscribers at just over 2usd. It was already a risk free position at that point having advised subscribers to recoup their original investment. All the more satisfying that Travis cracked the “Casey Code” on this one!

  10. ps as an aside the Casey team must have a high conviction on this one to tease it so aggressively. Trying to get CER a better reputation?

  11. Interesting, and thanks as usual for your research to uncover these typical hyped up secret deals, job well done as usual. Although interested, especially given Europe depends largely on Suez Canal oil, and the past pulling the plug by Russia, the tree huggers in Germany just might be silenced over homeland oil exploration.

  12. Very detailed presentation, so I just bought some PREGF at $.6812 — maybe too much. Looks like the field of interest is close to the North Sea, maybe near Meppen where I did some work many years ago. Yes, they say fracking is not necessary, but I wonder if that is because the German regulator won’t allow it? And I wonder if this is the first application of horizontal drilling in that field?

  13. I read from an article on 8/20 that “the Next Bakken” will be the Niobrara Shale Formation, and the company is ETKEF. This is from the “Energy Strategist”. I don’t know who the author was. I guess there are a few “Next Bakkens” around. They’re trying to sell subscriptions, after all…..

  14. Hello everyone! I am a brand new member..
    I did some research through the German media (I ‘m fluent in French & German). The federal government was working on a fracking draft law. One of its restrictions would have been that gas reservoirs above 1000 meters should not be pierced in order to maintain the distance to the groundwater. In May 2013 the proposal has been cancelled/postponed to post-elections (22.09.13). That could be a reason why the secret meeting was cancelled. However, at the federal government assembly it was stressed that fracking is not going to happen in Germany in the years to come.
    In that case I doubt that the country in question can be Germany, they wouldn’t have allowed to drill deeper than 1000 meters (Casey mentions 680 to 1600) and Casey expects drilling results Sept. 16th.
    I hope this can help.

  15. I like Tag oil . Oil market up &down lately. Doubled in price and I will Buy more when the market corrects. NZ oil is Also in New Z., has some problems. Tom Dyson teased,770 tax free retirement acc. also Bank code way of investing and third wave oil investing.Any clues? Sound great. I hope it is. Have any clues? Many oil co. to choose from . I wouldn’t worry about Germany. Keep an ear open. I love Tag oil& gas tao.if . Get on their email I thank everyone for their comments.

  16. On a email I got from Casey todays says the only clue the will give is that is in the the southern hemisphere. Germany is not in the southern hemisphere

  17. Indeed, the “southern hemisphere” is a new clue … And at the same time they took away the one clue that had really sealed it in my mind, this quote:
    “In July, one director of the company, who is also the CEO of a major Canadian oil player, bought 200,000 shares at the market – bringing his holdings of the company’s stock to a total of 1,235,237 shares.”
    (The original teaser pitch with that quote and without the southern hemisphere is also up here, if you’re curious: http://www.proactiveinvestors.com/columns/casey-research/4763/lawyers-canceled-our-trip-to-a-secret-oil-drilling-site-4763.html)

    So perhaps there’s another company where a Canadian oil CEO sits on the board and has exactly that number of shares, including exactly 200,000 purchased in July at near 50 cents, and they have a two million acre oil exploration footprint. Didn’t run across it personally yet, but occasionally there’s a crazy coincidence — and I do get one wrong every 12-18 months. Or maybe they changed stocks in midstream.

    • I suppose if you drill deep enough you can get anywhere you want to. If you do any type of search on this, it’s fairly obvious the company being referred to is PRD Energy.

    • Or maybe it’s a temporary diversion. Surely the director was Grant Fagerheim, who has just those # of shares and is CEO in a Canadian oil company. Plus Doug Casey recommended PRD Energy in a convention last year so it’s on their radar. (Bummed about the stocks continued rise though. Makes a casual jump-in for fun more daunting.) On the other hand Doug Casey and group are very keen on South America so maybe there’s something hidden there.

    • Perhaps “Southern Hemisphere” is not exactly a red herring, but a cutesy way of saying “the southern half of Germany??

  18. It seams to me Petro Frontier co fits the profile they have 2 mil acres in souther hemisphere Austalia south Georgina basin ,they hooked up with statoil and are to 9 hrs from nowhere by car. PFC.

  19. Wow…you are all way off!…. This is why people LOSE money investing/speculating because stupid forums talking about clues to what’s the next hot stock!! and you’re not even close to which stock it even is!! haha I love investors like you guys!….why?! Because I take all your money!! :)

  20. Craig,
    I think perhaps you meant to post that comment on YAHOO or some other lame site where morons spends hours flaming each other and pumping/bashing stocks that they have all of $300 invested in. This site is for grownups.

  21. I read it was 7,000,000 acres …but new Zealand energy DOES have 2,000,000 acres and I think its in the southern hemisphere BUT high production costs and possible dilution coming (need to raise 6 mil by sept 30th)..may be a good entry point after that date?

  22. oh yeah….and it IS a Canadian company so there you go…it IS New Zealand Energy but the question is buy now or wait to see how they are gonna get the 6 million to buy the Origin oil acerage ??? possible dilution coming?..or is it already factored in????

  23. I’ve noted the Doug Casey guesswork and I have decided that the real victor at trapping the pumpers and IR paid promoters is not Jason Cox but our own beloved Travis Johnson. With rigorous discipline you could use stockgumshoe to buy and sell heavily promoted stock ideas from known publications and make a steady gain of c10-15% without having to pay buckets of bucks for subscribing. Maybe Travis should be creating a fund?
    Anyway my own theory based on paranoia is that Doug Casey changed the target company as soon as he saw that Travis was on the case and the Canada millionaire link is now a red herring and the stock is somewhere south of the Equator.
    Or maybe it is still in Germany. And the southern hemisphere is the red herring.
    Old coal dumps and abandoned oilwells could be turned over to finding shale and fracking without tree-huggers getting in the way, especially now that Germany has to find an affordable replacement for the nuclear electricity plants Angela Merkel, a physicist no less (!), shut down to toady to greens after the Fukashima disaster. Between Maggie Thatcher who was a chemist and Merkel the physicist you can see why Larry Summers is right about female scientists not shaping up to their male colleagues…

    • Though I have no alternative solutions, I do believe that you are correct in assessing the “Red Herring” as a deception aimed at throwing the gumshoe off the scent.

      Travis, I have been a “free” gumshoe addict for several years. I just recently joined the irregulars. You are by far the most interesting, analytical, humble source of information that I have ever encountered in the the investment arena. That is why I joined. Your unbiased analysis, and your obvious joy of sleuthing out the teaser adds that would cost hundreds to thousands of $ per year in subscription fees are well worth the nominal fee that you charge. Keep it up, I enjoy all your work.

  24. Could be Tag Oil. Check this out:
    Keith Hill, Director @ Tag Oil
    Mr. Hill is the Chairman of Black Pearl Resources Inc. (TSX: PXX) and ShaMaran Petroleum Corp. (TSX-V: SNM), and is the CEO of Africa Oil Corp. (TSX-V: AOI).
    I believe he has shares, but I don’t believe he holds 1,235,237 shares. Tag is due to announce their drilling results on the NZ east coast shale soon.

  25. ”But dammit if they didn’t throw in another clue in a separate letter that was sent out several days later — ”

    Separate letter?….separate reco?………..especially as his first wont look so good now its 50% more expensive. Travis, I think you may have stolen the poor chaps thunder. Its getting hard for an honest tipster to scratch a living with GS out there.

  26. Marauder has got a fair bit of land in NZ. It could become a big buyout company. From the research that i have done on them. They seem be sitting on alot of black gold from what i have been reading. Another little beauty is East West Petroleum. They have partnered with Tag Oil in NZ & also have alot of land stakes in other countries as well. I also think EW has alot of potentional.

  27. Travis, can you take a look at Casey’s email teaser from 10/11 Sept titled “3 Stocks to Own When Gold Recovers”? He mentions three companies that are worth looking into.

    • Hi Cinarra,
      I will take a shot on Travis’ behalf. I do follow the gold market some, but these are not guaranteed to be right, as I don’t really have a professional grade Thinkolator – just a do-it-yourself-kit assembled version, and I think I may have put it together wrong (had a few left over pieces). Also, even if I can identify the stocks, doesn’t mean that they are good ones to own right now. Entire gold market has had a rough few months since April (or perhaps a rough couple of years, depends on how you choose to look at it).
      #1 – Explorer Turned Producer – I think this one is Carpathian (CPN on Toronto). They have a mine under construction in Brazil, and it is was scheduled to begin production really soon. I think their second quarter financial statement (released in July? But this is from memory, so go back and do your own research) said they were 82% done with construction. That means they should be about finished now – but I haven’t heard that it is completed yet. They also have a large gold / copper resource in Romania that is a few years away (if ever) from becoming a mine, so that fits the few clues given. They also (last couple of weeks) have diluted by issuing more shares at below market prices. They issued shares at 0.14 cents – stock had recovered from its lows (near 0.14 cents) to around 0.18 cents / share prior to dilution announcement. It is a little disappointing that CPN diluted so much just before they should begin getting cash flow from Brazil, but maybe they ran into some cost overruns, or perhaps it will take time to ramp production up and I guess they needed the money.
      #2 – Takeover Candidate – I think this one is Bayfield Ventures (symbol is BYV). Their property in Canada is basically surrounded by New Gold’s property (New Gold has been (or still is) taking over the Rainy River project – that project surrounds Bayfield’s Burn Block project in Canada). I haven’t followed this one that much, and don’t own shares. The gold does cross the property lines, but may just mean that no one else is interested in taking over the resource (can’t expand). Although logically New Gold should want to take over the Bayfield project, they will also likely want it for as cheap as possible, so if Bayfield doesn’t have other options – properties to explore, etc. – New Gold may try to wait them out.
      #3 – Holy Grail – large and high grade deposit in South America – I think this one is Almaden Minerals (AMM on Toronto, or AAU). They have a large (millions of ounces likely) resource in Ixtaca Mexico. Currently about $1.59 US. Many of their intercepts are hitting several grams / ton, and the overall size is quite big. But this one is still drilling and delineating their resource. Long way from building a mine, and I don’t know how much more dilution would be required to get there.

      Anyway, these are my best guesses …
      Best of luck.

  28. Could it be: Arckaringa Basin surrounding Coober Pedy which is said to have oil reserves ranging from 3.5 billion to a mind boggling 233 billion barrels of oil?
    Australia is in the Southern Hemisphere.

    • Hello Walter. I live in Australia. If their right about how much oil is in Coober Peddy then that would be one of the biggest finds any where in the world. They say it could even dwarf what they have found in the Bakken Shale. Their is a very small company that has been buying out rights to mine the land. This companies share price could easily go up 400% and even more in 1 to 2 years. Link Oil or AU:LNC is the ticker symbol. Their is one small catch. Because this is only a small company it needs alot$$$$$ to mine the land. But if a big player steps in with the Funds. If even less then half of what their saying is true & a big Mining firm steps KACHING$$$$$$

  29. I just started with you people yesterday so that I was not aware of any of the “promo” that you seemed to be hung up on. But I am an old (90 years) oil man and I would hazard a guess, from the size of the leased acreage, that it is in Australia. You should check with them for drilling permits, etc.

    • If it were all in one block, that would be a square about 55 miles on each side. Huge by US standards, considering all the tiny blocks cobbled together in Texas and the Bakken, but not so big for exploratory concessions in new territory in many countries.

  30. looks like new Zealand energy came up with a creative financing solution to the origin blocks requiring no loan or dilution…now if they can get production costs down I believe this horse has a shot at running!…and considering its selling below book value I jumped in today with 5000 shares!….I think its a good bet not perfect but worthy of risk!…and it has considerable institutional ownership for such a tiny stock

    • As far as I can tell their driling results have been bad, worse, and lousy. I speculated on that one for the first offshore Namibia drill, but sold when that result was disappointing (and the company was looking like a mess in other ways as well) — the subsequent two results have driven the stock down even further. You can argue it’s a “lottery ticket” if anything works out, but either they’re not very good at finding drill targets or the string of luck has been quite bad, and they aren’t flow testing their wells — particularly that last one announced earlier in the week, which was a dry hole.

  31. Hard to see how this can’t be PRD, well besides being located in the Southern Hemisphere.
    I noted Grant Fagerheim to be a Director of the following companies: Escavar Energy,
    Barrick Energy Inc, PRD Energy Inc, & Sintana Energy Inc., could it be one of this companies operating somewhere in the Sthn Hemisphere.

    I live in Australia and recently started following the shale gas/oil play here. The industry is in its infancy stage. The most de-risked Basin in Oz is the Cooper Basin. In terms of unconventional (tight shale) play, there are currently three companies who are actively drilling. Beach Energy & Icon (ASX: BPT & ICN) are based in the Cooper Basin (JV with Chevron). They are in the process of undertaking horizontal fracture stimulation, one of the first of its kind in Oz. Also in northern QLD, Armour Energy (ASX: AJQ) is currently undertaking fracture stimulation of the its first horizontal well. Results from flowback testing will come out early October. Apparently their holdings are bigger than Fort worth n & Eagle Ford basin combined.

    None of these Oz companies have a current Canadian CEO as a director, although the market caps of ICN & AJQ are closer to the teased stock.

    Perhaps we could do a continental process of elimination to arrive at the touted stock.

  32. My daughters boy friend has a friend of a friend that might get him on at haliburton, When my college educated son heard this he decided he is all in, He will quit his job as a lab tech, to try to get just an interveiw. from 35k to 40k to 90k a year job. Maybe you should be telling people how to land a job. This is a good goal for the young. It is a north Dakota job, however next time it might be the montery shale. Less cold. This should work out very good for everybody. I’m pushing 60 so I won’t go there myself. I’m tempted, But just got to let this one go.

    • Linc Energy lacks a Canadian CEO on its board of Directors & Tag is full of Canadians :-) but Grant Fagerheim isn’t one of them, or is this the red herring?

  33. http://www.marketwatch.com/story/prd-energy-announces-operational-update-2013-09-16-61733055
    press release
    Sept. 16, 2013, 6:31 a.m. EDT
    PRD Energy Announces Operational Update

    CALGARY, ALBERTA, Sep 16, 2013 (Marketwired via COMTEX) — PRD Energy Inc. (“PRD” or the “Company”) CA:PRD -22.62% announced an operational update for the drilling of the Boerger 7A well.

    After setting a whipstock at 660m, PRD encountered directional drilling challenges in soft sediments requiring changes to the well plan. The decision has now been made to mill the existing casing, set the whipstock point at approximately 1,200m and then drill to a depth of approximately 2,024m followed by a 400m horizontal leg. Operations to remove the existing whipstock will commence the week of September 16 whereafter plans to complete the balance of the program will be finalized.

    The information gained to date on this first program will prove valuable to the Company’s future drill design and operations on its other blocks in Germany.

  34. The report? Maybe it’s just underwhelming.

    PRD Energy Announces Operational Update

    CALGARY, ALBERTA, Sep 16, 2013 (Menafn – Marketwired via COMTEX) –PRD Energy Inc. (“PRD” or the “Company”) announced an operational update for the drilling of the Boerger 7Awell.

    After setting a whipstock at 660m, PRD encountered directionaldrilling challenges in soft sediments requiring changes to the wellplan. The decision has now been made to mill the existing casing, setthe whipstock point at approximately 1,200m and then drill to a depthof approximately 2,024m followed by a 400m horizontal leg. Operationsto remove the existing whipstock will commence the week of September16 whereafter plans to complete the balance of the program will befinalized.

    The information gained to date on this first program will provevaluable to the Company’s future drill design and operations on itsother blocks in Germany.

  35. So it is PRD after all, what’s the Southern Hemisphere thing all about if PRD’s fields are in Germany?

    Or, since everything else we were ever taught the government says now isn’t true, has Germany’s geography changed too?


    • Sorry, my bad, didn’t read the entire email.
      The Southern Hemisphere “hint” was admitted by them to be an intentional misdirect, purportedly to prevent subscribers from “chasing” the stock and paying too much.

      It was indeed – as Travis said – a red herring

      • Though the stock briefly touched 63 cents post the Sept 16th announcement it hasn’t looked back since. Those who missed that dip must be sweating now. Still there’s time I suppose before this story changes materially and plenty of chance for more volatility I bet though personally I have my full position in this stock. Good luck to all!

    • Lets keep our mouth shut in the future until we are proven wrong. Turns out you were right. Wasn’t a big winner but is was a winner if you wouldn’t have scared us back out. May be more damage done here than you know. If gumshoe has actually become that much of a threat that newsletters are posting false or misleading information knowing that you will pass it on to your subscribers than we have nothing here. Very disappointed about this.

      • As you probably know, I have never told anyone to buy or sell this stock. I’m just doing my best to describe what the newsletter folks are talking about — if they want to be sneaky, I’ll still do my best to solve their riddles but sure, they can work around me to some extent and try to game the system.

        That’s one of many reasons why each of us has to make our own decisions.

        I know that our coverage of small stocks sometimes helps to move the market or to sway people’s decisionmaking, but all I can do is try to honestly analyze and write about what I see.

      • Actually, I think if you take a look at the board of directors of TAG Oil (ca:tao) you will find the main thing that links all the other clues together. Keith Hill, a director of TAG, is also the current CEO of African Oil Corp, another company Casey has plugged massively and hints at in the tease, and more than likely the director who purchased shares on market. One other thing, TAG Oil also lists Casey Research as an active analyst covering the stock.

  36. Can anybody come up with an explanation for the 11,300 shares of PREGF that supposedly traded at .0811 on 9/17? Did somebody really sell them by his own typo accident? Or is it a typo error from Yahoo?

  37. In my inbox Sept 24 an update to this teaser from Casey confirming it’s in Europe.

    ” Hidden deep below Central European soil may be one of the largest oil deposits in the world, comparable in size to the legendary Bakken formation in North America. I call it the “next Bakken.”

    The full extent of this oil colossus is still unknown, but the final result could be one for the record books. And a small company with 2 million acres of land in the “next Bakken” is hard at work to prove up the reserves and make itself and its shareholders rich in the process.

    This is not a stab in the dark; there’s no doubt that the oil is there. In the past, 93 million barrels of oil have been produced on the land the company owns now. But thanks to the company’s state-of-the-art technology, management expects to be able to unlock many more millions or billions of barrels of to date inaccessible or uneconomical oil.”

  38. Maybe they are just teasing two separate companies? PREGF and either TAOIF or NZERF?
    They could be recommending several and just intentionally chose two very similar ones to tease.

  39. 9/26/2013

  40. Er???? Who’s going to burn all this stuff. If you guys have ID’d so many HUGE prospects on virtually every continent, they will be giving a life time supply away with every car that’s sold. What value then?
    Maybe it was the southern hemisphere of Germany :)

  41. I’ve received 2 email promos now from John Mauldin and seen this heavily promoted elsewhere. Casey Team are really pushing this one hard. I guess they have to resurrect the lousy Casey Energy report after such a terrible last few years. When was the last time they pushed something this hard? Meanwhile PRD.V keeps climbing. 1.05CAD last time I checked. If the drill results of the 16th are exciting I might be tempted to try and trade around my position a little. Might even take some profits before…..

  42. Any news on this stock? There has been no posting for a long time and the stock is moving sideways still. For some reason there is no volume traded either on this stock, any update?

  43. People fading the hype…… ? Looks like a bit of interest into the close though. Up 3.77% @1.10CAD . I just missed my sell limit to take my original stake and let the profits ride last week – Oh well, maybe tomorrow?

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