“Tiny Oil Stock That Could Transform $1,000 into a $144,400 Windfall”

By Travis Johnson, Stock Gumshoe, June 29, 2009

Now that’s a good tease — a tiny oil stock catches attention right away, since with oil prices having recovered we’re all pretending that we were never scared of what $30 oil would do to our energy investments. And $1,000 to $144,400, well, that just speaks for itself, no? I’ve got $1,000, and I’d much rather have $144,400.

So shall we figure out what the heck this is?

The teaser ad is from Colin McCabe of the Elite Stock Report — and of course, he would dearly love it if you’d subscribe to his newsletter. Apparently it’s $200 a year. You can subscribe if you like, I’m all for checking out whatever interests you … but if you just want to find out what this stock is, read on — I’m sure the mighty Gumshoe can figure this one out.

First, the pitch: The basic argument here is that the rising price of oil will create a demand imbalance, because so much of the supply from expensive sources (like deepwater rigs and oil sands projects) was taken offline, or exploration postponed, when oil prices collapsed last year. That imbalance will create a spike in the oil price (beyond what we’ve already seen, apparently), and will be a huge boon to those who have early-stage projects in high-cost areas. After all, when prices rise it’s the high cost producers who see the biggest boost to their bottom line, they go from money-losers to profitable producers almost overnight.

So here’s how this company is teased:

“A few hundred miles north of the Montana border, a tiny oil company has made a massive 2.25 billion barrel oil discovery…

“Independent analysis concludes the discovery is economically viable, capable of producing 56,000 barrels a day…

“And a pre-feasibility study determined the stock is worth $19.39 a share… yet, right now shares are trading for less than $0.50.

“Simply put, this is the greatest profit opportunity I’ve seen in years.”

Nice, eh? But there’s more!

“You see, this company is sitting on part of a vast oil discovery that is larger than the entire state of Florida. It contains more oil than the sheikdoms of Kuwait, Bahrain, and Dubai… combined. And it could satisfy all U.S. demand for the next 100 years.”

Then they start to talk just a little bit about exactly where this company’s land is — and yes, this is an oil sands company. The “north of Montana” bit should probably have told us that, no? And they quote that same old CBS story about the oil sands, which reflects the conventional wisdom that this source of energy will eventually be the largest foreign source of oil for the United States.

“And this tiny oil company… whom almost no one knows about… is smack-dab in the middle of it all.

“56,000 barrels a day… for 18 years

“This company’s beaten the majors to the punch, scooping up a massive swath of land in the heart of a huge oil zone that could fuel America for decades to come.

“Its property package — totaling over 100,000 acres — sits right next to Shell’s enormous thermal complex, where over 7 billion barrels of oil have been discovered. This facility currently pumps out 12,000 barrels a day, and is the crown jewel of Shell’s operations…

“But 12,000 barrels a day is nothing…

“The tiny company I’m telling you about has made a monster 2.25 billion barrel discovery of its own. And one of the most respected independent engineering firms in the business — whose clients include Chevron, Exxon, and Shell — estimates it could be capable of producing 56,000 barrels a day… for 18 years.

“A pre-feasibility study confirms this stock is worth $19.39 a share

“A pre-feasibility study completed by the same independent engineering firm confirms this company has a value of $1.2 billion at $65 oil. That works out to a whopping $19.39 a share.

“Let me repeat: $19.39 a share… that’s a 4,748% increase from today’s price.

“But you know what? $19.39 a share may be far too conservative…

“You see, the engineering firm based their study on only about 20% of the company’s massive land base.

“There are still tens of thousands of acres left to explore. And most of this land is in the SAME area over the SAME deposit with the SAME geological setting. So the likelihood that this company is sitting on a far greater amount of oil than we now know (possibly double) is extremely high.

“And it gets better…

“Every $1 increase in the price of oil adds $1.29 to the share price…..

“at $95 oil, each share could be worth a staggering $58.16.

“That’s a massive 14,440% increase from where the stock is trading today, enough to turn a $1,000 investment into a $144,400 windfall.”

OK, so I’ll admit — I’m jaded from reading these promises every day, but I still can’t help but do a little bit of drooling when that kind of return is dangled in the face of my decrepit portfolio.

So what is the stock?

Well, you may have noticed that the real clues were not exactly legion — but this is what we have: Worth $19.39 a share according to the feasibility study, could produce 56,000 barrels a day for 18 years, priced under 50 cents, has a project near producing Shell mines.

Throw all that into the mighty, mighty Thinkolator, and I can tell you that this must be …

Strata Oil and Gas (trades over the counter in the US at ticker SOIGF)

Now, before I get any further let me warn you: There are a lot of Stock Gumshoe readers, and volume, though already up about 200% from the recent average, is very low — so be aware that if the price shoots up it’s probably just because lots of folks heard about it here (or from Colin McCabe) and are driving the price higher. That doesn’t mean the stock is any better today than it was last week, or that the move in the shares is necessarily sustainable — caveat emptor. Or maybe caveat commodator, or however the ancient Romans would translate “investor.”

Who is Strata? They are a small exploratory oil sands company with properties primarily in the Peace River area (that’s the smaller oil sands zone West of Athabasca), near some producing properties, including Shell’s. The map of their properties is here. They’re not producing anything right now — and in fact, from the lack of word from the company it doesn’t seem like they’re doing much of anything. Maybe they’re just sitting on their assets, hoping for better prices and a buyout or a better opportunity to raise money to begin producing oil, I don’t know … their annual report is delayed but should be out later this Summer, so soon we’ll at least know what they were doing last year.

And their pre-feasibility study for their main project (called Cadotte), which was released over a year ago, did put the “net present value” of the property at $1.2 billion. If you divide that by the number of shares currently outstanding (not counting the warrants and options), you get … exactly $19.39, per the teaser.

Of course, you may not be comfortable with the assumptions that went into that pre-feasibility study — you can read Strata’s press release about it here, or get the official SEC filing of the full study here (it’s a long one).

So … will Strata turn into a barnburner for your portfolio? That’s tough to say — from what little I’ve learned so far it seems that these guys are very new players — the corporation used to be a software company called Stratabase, and it was only four years ago that they changed their name, and changed their focus to oil and gas exploration, and two years after that they made their big oil sands discovery.

The big things that seem likely to move the stock are a significant move in the share price (many oil sands projects are on the verge of profitability now, with oil near $70 — if it spikes further they get very profitable, if it falls the producers are in real trouble.); a takeout by a reserves-hungry oil major or an oil sands competitor; or a real step toward production on their Cadotte project, which would probably require some dramatic new level of financing. They haven’t issued any financial filings for about a year, as far as I’ve seen, and they recently filed an extension for their 20-F (annual report), so we should see that in a matter of weeks. They do have a huge accumulated deficit from acquiring land, and since they’re not producing they have no earnings. It looks like they’ve been financing their exploration and acquisition projects through share sales, and they do have those assets that should remain valuable as long as oil is expensive.

So whaddya think? Like this speculation, or do you prefer the bigger oil sands players, or other energy investments? Or do you think oil’s about to fall? Share your thoughts with a comment below, if you please. And if you’ve ever subscribed to the Elite Stock Report, by all means, please click here to review it for us. Thanks!


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39 Comments on "“Tiny Oil Stock That Could Transform $1,000 into a $144,400 Windfall”"

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SageNot
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SageNot
June 29, 2009 10:44 am

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=SOIGF.OB&t=1y&l=on&z=m&q=l&p=m50,m200&a=m26-12-9,r14,ss,w14&c=

Off sharply from a recent high. This is a potential Shell Oil takeover if the Yahoo data stream is accurate.

john sanders
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john sanders
June 29, 2009 10:45 am

love your articles and what you do it gives me great insight and helps me to not make the big mistakes i used to make by jumping in those rip offs im holding several now that will never do a thing but go broke. thank you again. love reading every one of your pieces.

Dave
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Dave
June 29, 2009 10:50 am

Check out this dudes experience Mr. Brisset is a Calgary-based finance and marketing professional. During his career he has worked for such multi-billion dollar corporations as Coors and Molson. His knowledge and experience in business operations and team development is of specific importance to Strata. Mr. Brisset is fluent in English and French, and received his Business degree from the University of Quebec at Montreal.

One of the board members of the oil sands boondoggle

Coors and Molson make beer don’t they?

dlst
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dlst
June 29, 2009 11:02 am

How does a company morph from software to oil-sands?? Reminds me, very unpleasantly, of Eden Energy (EDNE) which also was previously doing business in something very unrelated to oil.

Chris Fitzgerald
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Chris Fitzgerald
June 29, 2009 11:05 am
I would proceed with great caution, I invested in a company that sounds almost like the mirror image of what was pitched for this company. That company’s name was Eden energy resources. So I bought into it, why because the prices going up quickly. And I bought into it some more, the stock reached five dollars from $.50 wow! And then the investors who pitched the deal who I speculate had a major holding in the shares from the beginning sold in the stock took a nosedive. It’s now worth six cents anybody want to buy it? Ha ha Ha… Read more »
Derf
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Derf
June 29, 2009 11:13 am

What’s the deal with the forum? Is there a new one available?

dlst
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dlst
June 29, 2009 11:39 am

The new forum is here:

http://www.stockgumshoe.com/forum

Bob M.
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Bob M.
June 29, 2009 11:53 am

This souds suspiciously like a MYRA.PK,Myriad Entertainment. Founded by a guy up in Canada,premise was to build & open a resort in Tunica,Ms. However,it has never happened. I bought 10,000 shares & later sold them at 70 cents/share.To this day ,this outfit can’t even buy the land needed due to lack of funds.It was to have a domed golf course & grounds,making it weatherproof.Currently,its going for 6 cents a share.The guy who started it skipped long ago.This “oil” outfit sounds like a perfect investment for those who believed in Bernie Madoff.

AlanH
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AlanH
June 29, 2009 12:07 pm

I received something v similar looking today http://www.eajune3.com/TAMO_090629.html#JR

note particularly the legal disclaimers at foot.

Anyone know anything. Stock price certainly has been affected by this article. Most educational.

AlanH

SnoopyJC
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June 29, 2009 2:01 pm

I see what you mean about the hype here possibly driving the price up, as it’s up over 53% today (and the day’s not over yet)!!!

I’m not gonna chase it.
–joe

MikeM
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MikeM
June 29, 2009 3:12 pm

I am soooo thankful for this report and forum. With all the teasers and ‘skeptical’ info out there, I always look here for a sanity check.

JerriyA
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JerriyA
June 30, 2009 12:38 am

Take a look at a long term chart..someone must have teased this company in Oct’07 as the stock jumped from about 30 cents to $2 in a matter of days…any idea what happened at that time?

Monnie
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Monnie
June 30, 2009 4:37 pm

Does anyone knpw which junior gold mining stock Byron King is touting now,, the one that will make us all “miserable rich”?

ponce
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ponce
July 1, 2009 8:29 pm

I was watching SOIGF since 12/06 initially @$2.29. slid to as low as $.13. I did not catch the falling knife. I was afraid it might be like BQI which I chased up to $6 and lost money. BQI at the time had the biggest sand oil land holding but could not develop it. SOIGF has not done much since then but I will keep it in my watch list. Buying now? I don’t think so.

Myron Martin
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Myron Martin
July 1, 2009 8:51 pm
In response to Monnie’s question, Byron King is touting not ONE junior gold mining stock but a total of 8 related to the industry in some way, a royalty company I had never heard of and some producing more silver than gold. In actual fact when I read his report I found that I already owned SIX of the 8 and a 7th was on my buy list and I have since bought it. I have had difficulty responding to Byron through the Energy & Scarcity Newsletter by which I obtained the report, the e-mail given does not work, at… Read more »
Barbara
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Barbara
July 13, 2009 1:20 pm

I am so grateful to “The Gumshoe”. Years ago, when I started investing seriously, guys like Navalier were great. After these market ‘corrections’, I find that everyone has gone haywire and pumping and dumping just doesn’t stop. Since the BQI debacle, I started reading the Gumshoe faithfully. I have avoided some major investing pitfalls not to mention hideous newsletter costs by just reading the column. Thanks Gumshoe!! Your thinkolater rocks!!

darrell
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darrell
July 14, 2009 12:01 pm

Sorry folks, I missed this thread of a promo. I have owned this for awhile as a land position, oil in the area type deal and after the latest news, I have watched price rise, I’m holding for a run up or possible buyout by their neighbor, Shell Oil.

arthur
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arthur
November 19, 2009 1:06 pm

I would like to ask myron martin what he thinks about the beard co.ticker brco they claim to have a huge gold play in the alaska tar sands

Dean
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Dean
February 5, 2010 2:56 pm

If you are looking at the oil sands for a company already producing while continuing to develop their acres, Connacher is a good prospect. CLL.TO They use the environmentally friendly SAGD process and are finishing projects ahead of schedule and under budget. They also have conventional plays, 24% of a S American Oil company and a heavy oil refinery near the action. Not bad for $1.16.

J fREUDENBERG
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J fREUDENBERG
February 5, 2010 3:12 pm

Mr. Johnson;

I am surprised you are reviewing such old news. Their geological report came out March 29, ’06, and yes they are on the tar sands. Yes they are close to Shell, who are backing off much new investment in their project.

Timing is good with nat gas (a critical component) low, but tar sand heavy crude oil will never compete with lite oil from the huge Bakken deposit with their lower costs and emissions, even if they have to drill horizontally and fract the shale.

JSF

Rod - Drilling in the Amazon
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Rod - Drilling in the Amazon
February 5, 2010 4:41 pm

If one is looking for a small $0.40 CDN oil play with buy out potential look into RYD on the Canadian Venture exchange. they are a Bakken play, have producing wells, the private company that they were partnered with that paid the costs to drill the wells for 50% working interest was just sold to Crescent Point at the end of last year.
a stock that I hold to see where it may go.

Myron Martin
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Myron Martin
February 5, 2010 7:10 pm

In response to Arthur (Nov. post) I had not heard of BRCO so can not comment until I do some research.

I am still holding BQI and have lost money on it, I gave up on Connacher recently but have has some other winners in the oil patch.

who noze
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February 8, 2010 5:43 pm

brco rigs some deep water rigs etc also dwog oil sands peace river w// asmelter being built on thir prop.ne big knowledge investor you you a russian millionare has beu coup shares and is still buying hes also on bd.of directors anyway worth a look 11cents

who noze
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who noze
June 13, 2010 7:54 am

russian millionare NAME IS YOU YOU ALL THEIR RPORTS UP TO DATE STOCK NOW AT 7 CENTS STILL WORTH A LOOK

Rick
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Rick
July 16, 2010 6:24 pm

Link to Strata website; http://strataoil.com/news.php?id=26

Rick
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Rick
September 29, 2010 2:29 pm
Our Team Ron Daems President, CEO and Director Mr. Daems brings extensive financial and resource industry experience to Strata Oil & Gas. In the span of his career he has focused primarily on business development, strategic planning and financial analysis, while serving as project manager for numerous capital ventures. From 2000 through 2003, Mr. Daems was a portfolio manager for a multinational investment firm. In 2004, Mr. Daems founded and became the CEO of Emerging Business Solutions, a privately held business development company focused primarily on assisting startup companies in the resource sector to develop their land acquisition strategies and… Read more »
Rick
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Rick
September 29, 2010 2:31 pm
Mr. Barndollar is an experienced geophysicist who has served as senior geoscience manager and interpreter for large and small oil companies during the span of his career. He has broad US and international experience in prospect evaluation, operations and planning. Mr. Barndollar is currently Exploration Portfolio Manager at Talisman Energy. Mr. Barndollar served as Vice President, Exploration of Napa Energy between 2006 and 2008, Chief Geophysicist and Exploration Portfolio Manager for Devon Energy between 2002 and 2005, Senior Geophysicist for Samson Canada between 2000 and 2002, Chief Geophysicist for Apache Canada between 1997 and 2000, and Senior Explorer and Project… Read more »
Rick
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Rick
September 29, 2010 2:33 pm
Mr. Perity is an experienced oil sands Geologist who has worked for large and small oil companies during the span of his career. He is currently engaged as an independent contractor providing geological consulting services to the oil and gas industry. Recently, Mr. Perity also served as a Senior Geologist for Calgary based Terracon Geotechnique, working on a range of oil sands projects in the Fort McMurray region from 2005 to 2006. Prior to that, Mr. Perity served as Hydrogeologist for both Lifewater Resources and AGC Woodward-Clyde in Australia, after running an Australian technology company as Managing Director from 1995… Read more »
Marty
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Marty
July 5, 2012 3:43 pm

Stickin with Strata I’ve been in for the 2 splits its just a waiting game and I’m waiting Strata will be ready to POP by the time I retire. It will just be a bonus! The OIL is THERE so just wait for them to get it out of the ground or a buy out by a Monster company either way its a no brainer. 🙂

Tom Little
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Tom Little
October 25, 2012 10:46 am

You are way too soft on these Elite Stock Report congenital liers. Do not put money into penny stocks!!! They are 99% plus shams as you will see if you do objective analysis.

Krush
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Krush
June 29, 2009 6:24 pm

Amen to that. Since when does working for a beer company make a person an expert in the oil industry? This is just another pump and dump stock. Oilsands Quest (BQI) was pumped like Strata Oil & Gas a few years ago. The last I looked, BQI has yet to produce a single barrel of oil, and the stock price has gone on quite the roller coaster ride. It ended today (06/29/09) at $0.98.

Sniper
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Sniper
February 5, 2010 10:25 pm

After a six-pack of Molson’s, whatever you say can be taken to the bank, can’t it? :-))

vaag
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vaag
July 4, 2009 12:10 pm

HEAR! HEAR! And the best advice i ever got was from my 8th grade Sunday School teacher (had a PhD in Econ.) who told us,”Stock markets are little more than legalized gambling.”

ponce
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ponce
July 14, 2009 2:01 am

Your mention of BQI struck a chord in me. I lost on that too. I chased it to $6 and sold portions but not early enough when it was sliding down. I still own some but can not even sell it for tax deduction because it is in my IRA. Oh well.

stockpicks
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stockpicks
January 11, 2010 4:09 pm

I think $.13 was a good price. It is now over $2

Gravity Switch
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February 5, 2010 3:23 pm

I don’t necessarily disagree, though I expect we’ll eventually be using up a lot of the tar sands — but as for timeliness, I’m largely reactive: if the marketers are sending it out and my readers are asking about it, chances are I’ll write about it. That’s often a pretty good contrarian indicator, as the performance of teaser picks in the past has shown, but certainly not always.

Jim
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Jim
February 5, 2010 4:23 pm

I also think CLL is a good bet – I bought just under $1.00. It was recommended last fall by an Alberta oil patch legend writing in Investor’s Digest as Wildcat Willy. He’s got a great track record. I scored big on one of his recommendations a few years ago – Duvernay Oil, starting out very much like Connacher. It’s down in the last couple of weeks so I think it’s a good buy again, right now.

StockGumshoe
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StockGumshoe
February 5, 2010 5:08 pm

Interesting to hear about Connacher again — I remember looking at that one three years ago when Tobin Smith was flogging the stock, though at the time oil sands enthusiasm was far higher and the shares were above $3.

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