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Steven Evans
Member
Steven Evans
February 1, 2009 4:16 am

This review will cover as one package the Elliot Wave International’s three packages, Short-Term Update, Financial Forecast, and Elliot Wave Theorist. The reason is that just buying the Short Term Update (at $39/month) is like looking up close at a Monet Painting (e.g., London. The Waterloo Bridge). You see every stroke and line but can’t really tell what the big picture is all about, while the Financial Forecast gives you the big picture, but you will miss far too much of what this service has to provide if you are just getting commentary once a month. However if you buy the Short Term Update and just one of the others, you get all three for the same in their bundled price — so you might as well think of it as $59 (bundled price) for one package that comes in three parts. So just what is this package?

The answer to that requires some commentary. The Elliot Wave Theory essentially says that all the commentary you get from all the talking heads on Wall Street is just that — made-up drivel that tells you little. Rather, the market is not a rational reaction to the daily economic news but is driven by an overall social mood (positive to negative), reflected in a subsequent herding behavior, and is essentially fractal (any part is similar to the larger part at any size you select). The market moves in determined and predictable waves, and if you properly identify the direction and status of the wave, you will have a very good picture of the ongoing trend. The Short Term Update gives you this “local” view of the trend, although they do show it in context of the Big Picture, but the other two publications focus on the Big Picture to be sure you understand the overall market direction. Thus this service is offering a compass to ascertain the ongoing direction of the market, both short term and long.

Although the service may seem initially like a kind of technical charting analysis, it differs significantly from this by being grounded on an underlying theory about how human behavior operates and postulates an underlying wave theory that structures all the ongoing market moves. Virtually without exception, there are no individual stock recommendations whatsoever. It is a compass on where the market is in its cycle, and as a result, where it is likely going. It is actually an order of magnitude more subtle and sophisticated than merely technical charting since it operates with what can be called “a normative theory;” that it, it both describes and explains the markets ongoing moves through these built-in wave cycles being reflected, daily, weekly, monthly, yearly, and even over centuries.

With all that being said, so what use is it? I can tell you that it has bailed my fat out of the fire for more than two years now — with its compass reading on where the market is and where it is going. For example, gold was predicted to move up (so I profited both with an ETF and specific gold miners I obtained from other regular stock-recommending sites), and as gold reached about $1000/ounce, the Elliot Wave analysis indicated we were through. I sold around $950 using the Short Term Update, and rode gold back down. Using their Big Picture, I turned bearish at the end of 2007 although they called the actual top within a month of it, and the service has served me in good stead all these many months. If you had embraced the Elliot Wave compass, you could easily have avoided most of the bite of the bear. So I am a very happy camper.

The reason for this long review is that you can see that this service is a bit more cerebral than others, and does not, like most others, itemize a good stock buy this week or a good short. However, now that there are ETF’s, I can in fact short the DOW or S&P or go long on gold, etc. by connecting my purchases of ETF’s with the trends. I should note they have a lot of specialty additional services if you want to focus on commodities, for example, and other areas. Then you could trade specific ones since they track wheat, corn, oil, etc. In my opinion, this service which for my tight budget is somewhat expensive ($59/month) is extremely valuable, gives me what I think is a very good, tight, and remarkable accurate handle on where the overall market is going and where it is likely to go, and then when I couple that with either ETF’s or some individual stock recommendations (for example, Travis’ sleuthing brings us specific stocks that can be good insights), I have been doing utterly embarrassingly well for some time. I will keep with them.

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Bob Brown
Member
Bob Brown
February 7, 2009 12:55 pm

I’ll begin with a couple of caveats. First, I subscribed to Prechter’s newsletter in the mid 1980’s (I think it bore the same name as it does today, but I’m not certain), when I started investing. So, it’s been long time, which means that I don’t remember details, and that I can’t speak to Mr. Prechter’s performance now. However, since my experience was most memorable, I feel that I should relate what it was.

Something always seemed true about larger patterns working themselves out, and, being of esoteric mind, I was very interested in Elliot Wave Theory. I still check on it from time to time. But in the summer and early fall of 1987, Mr. Prechter waffled. I remember clearly that he said a downturn might or might not happen, but that it could be ridden out; the choice was ours. Unfortunately, I chose to ride it out, and quite a ride it was. Being an inexperience investor, I sold most of what I had at the wrong time and lost quite a bit.

In a subsequent appearance on Louis Ruykeyser’s PBS show (where Ruykeyser emphasized Prechter’s shortcomings and viciously tore him apart), Prechter tried to say that he couldn’t be blamed if his subscribers didn’t take his advice. I have never fully trusted him since. However, he may well be much better at what he does now. I don’t know.

troppo32
Guest
troppo32
February 7, 2009 6:49 pm

What a joke – “Steve Evans” reviews three of Robert Prechters offerings and uses the same commentary for all three. This smacks of a marketing flack shilling his pubs and is not something I would expect from Stock Gumshoe.

I hope they screen the reviews to keep them honest.

And, yes, I will post this on all three “reviews”.

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hank
Guest
hank
February 16, 2009 6:16 am

a very good overall summary of the market and general direction of the future. they state that they called the current crash and depressive atmosphere but unfortunately at that time i believed in the “fools” and got smashed. only later i found their site.as of late-about 2/3 months- they called for gold dropping to 650, therefor i closed my long positions only to witness the current rise to over 900. for silver it could be that they scored positively. also they can not really predict tomorrows market until it is over. they constantly state- like all the others -that it could go up but still may drop etc.but overall it gives a good feeling of the present state of affairs.

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Steven Evans
Member
Steven Evans
February 16, 2009 6:14 pm

This is a comment about other comments to my review and this investment service. No, Mr “troppo32,” I am no shill, and I explained that I saw all three services as essentially one total package, hence the same comment for all three. So save your snide and cynical remarks for yourself. As for “hank,” who sold his gold and now it’s at 900 [and he is unhappy), well good buddy this service pulled my “gold” fat out of the fire in my case. With gold at a litle over a $1000 an ounce, Elliot announced a little while later we had hit the high of the 5th wave. So I sold around $950 — pretty close for government work. Then they indicated that it would move down in a series of waves [up-down-up-down … with lower downs than ups — until we hit $650 as hank noted]. Look at the chart, my friend. So I can tell you I escaped quite a number of sucker [ie., bear-market] rallies since I have been waiting to get back into gold It is quite foolish to say gold is at $900 now so the service didn’t help. You have to understand the move in cycles; if you can’t work with the complexity, the service is not for you. So quite frankly I am waiting for gold to finally come to $650 or a little lower, and then I will buy in if the service declares we are now going to see a significant [probably 5 wave]rally.

In summary, this is a sophisticated service and requires careful attention — that’s why I think all 3 together make up just one “service package” of advice. And clearly it is not for everyone unless you are able to watch the waves unfold, and if you wish, ride them as a trader, or just wait patiently for the really major turning points.

And no, I’m not a shill — I’m a full-time researcher that is comfotable with complexity. So since this service has kept me from shooting both of my knee caps off the past 16 months, I took the time to write the review for other readers. So do whatever you want; I am a happy camper so far.

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SLW Iowa
Guest
SLW Iowa
February 28, 2009 10:19 am

I subscribed to Elliot Wave in the mid 80’s and have recently subscribed again. In the mid 80’s their general predicted trends were quite accurate and yet I lost over $100K in the futures market. I was young, newly rich, very ambitious, and not very experienced as an investor. This is to say: no matter how accurate the calls are, you still need the basic skills of a good investor to make money.

This is NOT to say all his calls are correct – they are not. But Elliot Wave does not hesitate to go way out on a limb years in advance and predict – sometimes with stunning accuracy – where the market will be.

I re-subscribed because I am disturbed about the economy and have re-entered the investment world to protect what wealth I do have. Elliot Wave was the lonely voice predicting deflation for many years, and has been very accurate about the Dow, accurate about silver, and not too accurate about gold. Right now (March 2009) he is calling for more deflation, with lower Dow and lower precious metals – with corrective waves (bear rallies) along the way.

This means he could be right on his calls and the timing can kill you – which is what happened to me in the mid 80’s.

So how useful is it? I’m very happy to have a picture of what is happening – a picture described back in the early 2000s that seems to be coming true. Mostly that means I am expecting a longer deflationary period rather than Weimar inflation scenario over the next couple of years.

I want to add: I get a sense of genuine concern from Mr. Precther about his subscribers. Maybe he’s just a good writer, or just wants his subscribers to keep subscribing, but I sense he really cares that we are well. And I suspect that’s why he is suggesting, despite his prediction that gold is moving down, that we all own some physical gold – out of the country is a plus.

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SageNot
Member
SageNot
March 8, 2009 8:17 pm

I just found out that my subscription to the Elliot Wave Theory from the 80’s/90’s is still in Prechter’s customer list. In those days Mr. Prechter’s advice was often iffy & I do remember the “trap” that Lou set for him on Wall St. Week. No matter what you think of wave analysis, it wasn’t one of Lou’s best works. He was actually viscous, & mean, which I thought was uncalled for on a staple like WSW, but that’s history.

For real long-term wave analysis I prefer the Kondratieff Theory which I believe measures the actual “working age” of man vs. his expected lifetime. But I really don’t have the patience t/b a buy/hold affectionado & at my present age, “buy low” is still the best system, w/trailing stops of course.

Eric Balkan
Guest
March 11, 2009 12:42 pm

Awful, awful, awful. This is a stopped-clock service. If you subscribe when the market is moving with their specified direction, i.e., down, it’ll look like a good service. If not… I subscribed for about 9 months in late 2002 – early 2003. At the bottom of the market in Feb-Mar 2003, the weekly service was calling for a waterfall decline taking the market much lower. They had a stop set for about 10% higher on the S&P, which was eventually hit. All during that time, and it took several months to play out, they would change their wave count so that their bearish prediction would still be the most probable outcome. Totally subjective. The classic example of thinking that you’re right and it’s the market that’s wrong.

The longer term monthly service, written by Prechter himself, was also bearish. For some reason, Prechter got it into his head that the market could not go up because the dividend ratio was too low. And that the speculation of the 90s hadn’t been worked out, so that the market needed to be punished further. And the country become more libertarian.

I had also subscribed to Prechter’s Elliott Wave Theorist back in the early 80s and thought it was useful then — except for when he said he was leaving the business because the Grand Cycle from 1776 had just ended.

I think, just personal opinion, Prechter has surrounded himself with people who agree with everything he says, so that even his most bizarre prediction doesn’t get challenged. That’s about the only answer I can come up with for how someone can mistake a bottom for a top.

Richway
Guest
Richway
March 28, 2009 1:24 am

I just took another 3 mos. after being gone a few years, and it is like a time warp; same old perma-bear mantra from Prechter. He still claims he called 1987 perfectly, but he has been a bear ever since, and every few years he can say he was right.

I do like Steve H’s commentaries, and they are useful for El Wave learners to study.

INVESTOR606
INVESTOR606
April 23, 2009 10:04 am

I HAVE RECIEVED THE ‘THEORIST’ FOR SEVERAL YEARS. I HAVE TO AGREE WITH TROPPO32 THAT THE EVANS REVIEW AND EVEN HIS REPLY SOUND LIKE PURE HYPE. MY EXPERIENCE IS THAT IT DOESN’T REFLECT PRECHTER’S RECORD OR VALUE. I HAVE FOUND TOO MANY TIMES WHEN I AGREE WITH ERIC BALKAN THAT THE PREDICTIONS ARE CLEAR WHEN GIVEN BUT BLUR TO APPEAR MORE CORRECT THAN THEY WERE, LATER.

YET PRECHTER DOES OFFER AN INVALUABLE SERVICE.

HIS OVERVIEW OF MARKET OPINION AND THE REAL WORLD AFFECT ON THEM AS WELL AS THEIR EFFECT ON THE FUTURE CAUSES ME TO SEE THINGS DIFFERENTLY THAN I WOULD BY MYSELF. HIS LOGIC IS EXCELLENT FOR THE BROAD BRUSH LOOK AT THE WORLD ECONOMY AND WORLD MARKETS.

HIS SPECIFIC FORECASTS HAVE NO VALUE TO ME. I FIND HIS CHARTS ARE UNREADABLE AND CAN BE READ ANY WAY ONE WANTS. I HAVE AGREED WITH THE INFLECTION POINTS HE PICKS ABOUT 50% OF THE TIME. I CANNOT USE HIS MARKET PREDICTIONS.

BUT, AS AN EDUCTIONAL TOOL AND AN OBSERVER OF THE WORLD, A SUBSCRIPTION TO THE ‘THEORIST’ IS MORE THAN WORTH THE PRICE.

William
Guest
William
May 15, 2009 4:37 pm

Sorry but Prechter is the Conman of Conmen. His 2000 forecast of DOW 400 and Gold to 103.50 were dead wrong. Gold went the exact opposite direction and Dow never even came close and later soared in 2003.

Prechter always extends his “5th wave”, changes his counts, etc.

He’s a scammer and wil lose you money, big time!

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Tony
Guest
Tony
July 24, 2009 5:46 am

I have been subscribing to EWT on and off for many years.
I can say the EW experts are more like lawyers. They always tell you what might happen if this and if that but they never state what WILL happen.
They are too guarded and won’t commit their knowledge to the ultimate test. There is always a get-out clause.
They are unable to be positive about any the outcome of any chart movement; there always has to be a double check and then another.
While that is happening of course, any profits are running away from you and you might well end up opening a position far too late in the move.
I think EWT has got far too technical over the years with so many wave degrees to contend with it’s become mind numbing.
That’s OK if you are a techie nut but not much help to the ordinary trader who just wants to know what is hot, where it is going and when will it peak or bottom.
Anything beyond that is pure cotton wool stuffing to me.

They have a sort of hot line that feeds key market movers but they want another 200 bucks per market per month on top of the standard subscription to do that.
I suppose the acid test is “if it really is that good, why are these guys writing for a living and not trading for a living?”

EWT is really just another traders tool in the bag along with SMA,MACD,RSI, etc. and it should be treated that way.

sheeple123jump
Member
sheeple123jump
July 25, 2009 11:34 am

I’m a recent subscriber to one of the ‘Elliot Wave’ packages….and mostly for the purpose of educating myself on the elliot wave.
I think many of the comments here from reviewers are on target,both positive and negative…. these newsletters from elliot wave are centered around the elliot wave …and as a recent poster mentioned….really benefits a teckie analyst who is studying the elliot wave, and using it as part of a complex examination of the markets, the big picture, the world picture, etc….just as it requires reading a number of other newsletter advisories if you want specific stock picks, the elliot wave letter doesnt give any…
I cant speak about Prechter’s past performance but the comments of old subscribers are …not encouraging…I’ll have to keep a skeptical eye open for shortcomings to this type of ‘market vision’…but I have studied elliot wave enough now to feel strongly that there Is something to it… it is worth studying,as a tool that may in fact work well somehow. Is it the ‘holy grail’ …probably not…but I use it now, in combination with other indicators,like MACD,CCI,SMA’s, etc….and they all afford me a good vision of what I’m looking at.

One of the reviewers mentioned the assorted packages of these Elliot Wave newsletter …and that it’s incomplete to just buy one of them, you really need to have a more complete package deal…and I’m finding this to be true. The package deal I have is incomplete for me now, and I may need to add to it,which means more money…I’m not sure if I will renew it.Finding the right package deal is key with this newsletter.
In general, I would say it has good value for anyone interested in learning to become expert at Elliot Wave analysis,it would be useful to study as far as it will take you.
Beyond that, it’s just one section of the vast library of investing education I feel I need to learn.

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cautious
Guest
cautious
August 24, 2009 8:34 am

I have followed Elliott Wave since the early 60’s but only as a subscriber for a few years. One might say that Elliott is good at very very long perspectives but stinks at anything resembling investment time periods. In 87 with the “crash”, Prechtor was basking in having called the top – though as you will see that probably needs to be questioned. He then went into end of the world mode, calling for the end of stocks and recommending people hunker down and never invest again. I pretty much ignored them until the 9/11 crash at which time, unfortunately, I bought into their claim to have called not only the crash but the attack. And, I subscribed. For the next few years I read week after week how the dow was going to triple digits, etc. They missed the huge head and shoulders bottom in 02/03 continuously saying go short. Sell all. End of the world. I watched even the most novice of investors kick my butt because the market relentlessly rose as each week EW made excuses such as extensions, or unusual wave patterns and again called to go short. Had I actually followed their advice to the top in 07, I would have been broke with no money to go short when the top actually appeared. Fortunately I “only” missed one of the biggest rallies ever. By the top I had dropped my subscription, but was not surprised to start to see emails that they had called the top! Yes – for decades! Only someone who was fortuitous enough to subscribe for the first time just before the top would make money – all others would be killed by their continuous call for a crash for year after year. I suppose I could call every day for a mammoth snow storm in Phoenix and one day it might occur and I could tout my great predictive knowledge. But the other 99.9% of the time, like Elliott, I would be wrong. Elliott Wave has been for the past three decades the smokin Joe Granville of their time. But at least smoking Joe admitted he was wrong!

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kim
Member
kim
September 22, 2009 8:57 am

According to CXOAX http://www.cxoadvisory.com/gurus/Prechter/ Prechter’s accuracy rate is 33%. According to Hulbert, from 1/1/85 through 5/31/09 Prechter’s trading advice would produce an annual loss of -15.4% compared to 9.7% gain in Wilshire 5000 index – http://www.erictyson.com/articles/20090616.

I asked them to comment on the data, but they said the data is not correct. I cancelled my subscription. I don’t see any reason to pay hundreds of dollars per year for a service that underperforms the market by 25% annually.

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San Diego Investor
Guest
San Diego Investor
May 6, 2010 9:16 pm

I subscribed to Elliott Wave International’s commodity newsletter for awhile and tracked their recommendations before I invested any money. I don’t recall the exact numbers, but the majority of their recommendations would have lost money.

a year and a half later, after the market bottomed in 2009, I subscribed to their 3 stock market newsletters. EWI is pretty brash about claiming how they accurately call market tops and bottoms. Looking for an edge, I wanted to believe they were it. Then starting in sept or oct ’09, EWI was calling for a market top and recommended going to “maximum leveraged short positions.”

They maintained this for months inspite of a relentlessly rising market. This same scenario was been reported by other reviewers at other time periods. EWI has all kinds of interesting facts, perspectives, explanations, analysis, justifications, graphs, wave counts, fibonacci ratios, etc about why the market is “now” at a top. The only time they were right during the months I was a subscriber was in feburary 2010 when the market declined. At that time, EWI was pretty emphatic saying that OK, wave 3 down has started, and now finally the major downturn has started.

But then after that, the market continued to rise. After awhile, the pattern in their newsletters came clear: they essentialy would state the market will probably go down, but it might go up. They have perform detailed elliot wave analysis, and say they can predict where the market is going. But when they are wrong, they say the wave count (the price patterns) have changed and now there is a new count.

So they continually modify their wave count and structure to conform to what the market is doing/has done. Not impressive from a forecasting prospective. They I’m sure are going ape shit after today (5/6/10).

It seems Prechter and gang are severe bears, as evidenced by their statements about the market rise from early 2009 such as “a scary rally” “a frustrating rally” and so on. This tells me that they really want to see a big market meltdown, a new depression actually, and that is exactly what they have predicted will happen. It’s a known fact that a biased researcher will consciously or unconsciously search for, view and interpret data that supports their favored position and downplay or disregard data that doesn’t support their position. I believe this is true for EWI.

In his book, “how to survive the crash” prechter makes extreme recommendations, such as selling your business, cashing out your retirement funds and other recommendations that if he is wrong will be very costly. Likewise, in an EWI newsletter from about a month ago, EWI is forecasting that 2010 will see a huge drop in the financial markets, and the US will be in a depression worse than the first one other other extremely pessimistic predictions.

So as some other reviewers have said, I don’t see how you could make money following EWI’s advice. EWI is either wrong, or way to premature calling downturns. I finally cancelled my subscription lest I get seduced by them once again.

On the plus side, Prechter’s discussions are often interesting, and his perspectives unique. The best advice by Prechter? “making money in the market is hard, and losing it is easy.” “only invest with money you can afford to lose.”

In summary, EWI’s publications are often interesting and provocative, but based on my experience, they don’t seem to be a reliable market forecast service.

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Terry
Guest
Terry
April 11, 2011 10:34 am

Nice silver call. When does wave C begin?

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WishICouldTrustIt
Guest
WishICouldTrustIt
July 26, 2011 12:04 pm

Basically ditto San Diego investor. I remember the spectacular calls made pre 1987 crash. But at that time Prechter was already calling for Dow 400 and doomsday. I subscribed again in 2001 and made some money on the short side. However, when the market made a large head and shoulders bottom in 03/04 I got nervous as they continuously called for much more downside. And SD is correct, they just kept changing their wave counts relentlessly and recommended short all the way up the rally. Had I followed their advice I would have been wiped out. I didn’t, but then I did not go much long either. But I quite the subscription. Thus, i missed the huge drop beginning 2008, so maybe to their credit they save my bacon. I have been long the the current rally since the beginning but have been the victim of the huge real estate bust they rightfully (but early) called. So now I am subscribing again but the letters look no different – Dow 400, huge recession/depression, etc. The problem is occasionally they are big time correct, like with real estate, and then you start to believe or at least are cautious. They feel a little like smokin Joe Granville who decided a bear was coming and went short losing 98% of his subscribers money only later to state he misinterpreted his data. It is an interesting service and if they are correct but just absolutely terrible at timing God help us all!

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joe longwill
Guest
joe longwill
December 26, 2011 1:14 am

i followed elliotwave short term update and prechters theorist from 1997 into 2009-2010
and ill sum it up as best i can .
if they were calling for the 3rd of a 3rd very powerful wave down in 1997 and again in 2000 and again in 2007 and are now doing the same
then can they be considered right in any of the calls they have made over the past 13 years ???
think about it .
lastly i learned alot about elliott wave theory from the years reading and researching and now use my own thoughts when i risk my own money ..

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ns2000
Member
ns2000
February 26, 2013 2:23 pm

I find Mr. Prechter’s commentary interesting, but not necessarily tradeable. Most of his commentary is more applicable to trends in social mood than trading. The basis of his commentary, the Elliott Wave Theory, is presented as a nice neat set of rules, but in practice it is not near so neat. Some waves are counted others aren’t. Change the bar interval and the waves change. Today’s price action will change yesterday’s wave count.

It seems to me that EWT and its associated newsletters (Short Term Update & Financial Forecast) have a tendency to have an alternate view that will allow them to always be right. They will say things like: “The market may have another sharp move up, but its not necessary to complete the wave count. But if it rises above X then it raises the odds that the alternate wave count is correct.” How are you supposed to trade that advice? It allows for the market to go up or down. There just seems to be a lot of wiggle room in their analysis which makes for interesting reading, but doesn’t make a profit.

Much of the EWT analysis is based on extreme readings in social mood. The EWT will recommend a position opposite of extreme crowd sentiment. Basically if the crowd is 90% bulls then EWT is a bear and vice versa. While there is statistical data to support such positions, you can also get trampled by the bulls and mauled by the bears.

EWT also relies heavily on Fibonacci ratios. Observing Fib ratios in time and price. I find these quite interesting but again not necessarily tradeable.

To be fair to Mr. Prechter he readily admits that stock predicting is problematic. And he is humble in his presentation. He does not come across as some arrogant know it all. And he admits when he is wrong.

Some traders may do very well with EWT. Maybe it is just not a match to my personality or the way my brain processes information. I will still subscribe just because I find his insights into social mood interesting.

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