by Travis Johnson, Stock Gumshoe | September 25, 2013 4:04 pm
I wasn’t intending to write about this particular teaser pick that’s circulating from Dr. Kent Moors[1] for his Energy Inner Circle[2] … mostly because he doesn’t get deep enough into any clues or specifics to let us really focus on a particular company for you.
But everyone’s asking, so I figure we should at least give you a chance to chat about it if you’re interested (and I can make some guesses). So what’s the deal?
Well, Moors says that thanks to a big deal that was signed just a couple months ago his “gag order” has been lifted and the possibilities for South American oil[3] and gas riches are really opening up. Here’s a bit in his words:
“I’m here today to tell you about what I believe to be one of the most important oil deals to come along in over a decade.
“The fact is this deal is one of the keys to unlocking an oil and gas reserve worth more than $175 trillion.
“That’s over 10 times the size of the U.S. GDP in a single year.
“So how do I know so much about this deal? I was one of the people who helped broker it.
“Today, this deal is nearing completion. And it’s going to change the dynamics of oil on a global scale….
“Just weeks ago, on July 16th, one pivotal event kicked this ‘super shift’ in oil into high gear.”
The “pivotal event” was the signing of a shale oil accord between Chevron and the state-controlled YPF (that’s the Argentinean oil company that was seized from Repsol, a Spanish oil company, by the Argentine government). Repsol is still hollering “foul” about that, but it didn’t keep Chevron from jumping in. And I can’t imagine Moors is talking about either of those two companies, his theme is that this is just the enabling deal that will bring South America back into oil prominence (along with a couple other developments, like a big Ecuadoran oil refinery and a large North/South gas pipeline being built, and increased cross-border energy cooperation among big players like Argentina[4], Brazil[5], Colombia[6] and Venezuela.
More on that theme:
“All the big players in oil right now are looking at South America.
“The Chinese, the Russians, the U.S. and others are all making deals and jockeying for position.
“The reason is this:
“There’s A LOT more oil in South America than anyone ever thought possible.
“Couple this with HUGE foreign demand and a large number of fast-growing South American economies, and you’ve got a recipe for red-hot energy profits.
“Now just to be clear, I’m going to be able to show you dozens of ways to play this boom…
“It’s not just the usual oil majors that are going to reap the benefits. It’s also:
- Small drillers
- Pipeline companies
- Oilfield services firms
- Over-land and over-sea shippers
- Environmental and risk management firms
- Distribution hubs, ports and dockside facilities
- Natural gas and petroleum liquids processors
- And so much more…
“As I’ve been saying…
“There’s one super-urgent play I see developing on this global “super shift” to South American oil.
“However, to grasp this company’s potential you’ll need to understand some of the political changes and unlikely new alliances this newfound energy wealth is fostering.
“Brazil, for example, is reaching out to its neighbors – and extending significant capital to forge new cross-country transportation routes for oil and gas to the ultra-lucrative Asian markets.”
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And really, that’s about all he gives by way of clues — it looks like he’s setting this up as the idea that will be behind a handful of recommendations in the South American oil space as he sees the formation of a new oil power that he calls “SOPEC.”
Any more clues at all? Well, sort of … here’s what I could glean from the pitch:
“However, my most urgent play on this incredible “super shift” in South America…
“The one I’ve been saying that you’ve got to get in on RIGHT NOW…
“Isn’t any of these things.
“It’s an under-the-radar powder keg of an investment that got its fuse lit on July 16th of this year.
“That’s when a new energy mega-deal was inked between a major U.S. oil player and Argentine state-owned oil interests.
“That’s the second major catalyst signaling the rise of SOPEC…
“And ushering in a whole new world of money in energy.”
And more on that July 16th deal …
“The “lit fuse” moment happened July 16th of this year.
“That’s when an Argentine state-owned oil company signed a 50-50 partnership agreement with American oil major Chevron.
“The goal of this accord was this:
“To immediately begin tapping into the vast energy reserves locked in the Vaca Muerta shale.
“Now, as I’ve been promising…
“I’ve got a way of playing this South American “super shift” that’s miles away from the obvious move (like buying Chevron).
“A play that’s poised to soar on the strength of this July 16th mega-deal.
“But I repeat: If you want the biggest gains from this play, you’ve got to move on it RIGHT NOW.”
Presumably if it’s “miles away from the obvious” then he’s also not talking about buying Chevron’s partner, YPF (YPF)[7], which did shoot ahead on the strength of that deal and is up 40-50% since … but that’s a possiblity. It’s the obvious play on this Argentinean shale gas, it’s clearly got better ties with the government than most companies, and it’s big and profitable — roughly an eight billion dollar market cap, and it trades at about 10X earnings.
What about if he’s really looking for something that’s less obvious? Well, Argentina seems to be allowing some profit again for private oil companies — they’re allowing exports of up to 20% of production to relax the impact of their price controls for companies that are doing meaningful investment in oil production, or something along those lines, so maybe that and the Chevron/YPF deal will spark further development in that same area?
This is all Moors says to give any hinting about his teased pick:
“Let me GIVE you my hottest, most urgent pick on the “Rise of SOPEC” right now.
“It’s a somewhat under-the-radar South American company, one that a lot of folks don’t realize they can play on safe, familiar U.S. exchanges.
“There’s definitely some “smart money” action brewing on this company right now, though.
“In fact, its shares are up 40% in just the last 120 days – a pittance of where it’s headed.
“No doubt much of this action is coming from in-the-know energy insiders looking to bank some hefty “sure thing” profits on the side.
“And if you move fast, you can join them for the BIG returns to come.
“As SOPEC’s fortunes rise as swiftly as I believe, you could be looking at a score of six times your money.”
So … that does kind of sound like YPF (YPF), which is a South American company that’s listed in New York and very actively traded, and I suppose it’s “somewhat under-the-radar”, though not as much as it was before that deal was made.
Well, it looks like Vaca Muerte is a hot zone of potential shale production … but if we’re talking just about that area then there aren’t really any other South American companies that are US-listed beyond YPF. He could easily be talking more generally about some other South American company that’s going to profit from the general development, though, but YPF has gone up by 40% in 120 days, so on that, at least, it matches.
Any other potential plays? Well, there are a lot of Vaca Muerte plays — but not many pure plays or other companies that are heavily levered to that particular development. Big, familiar, North American companies like ExxonMobil (XOM)[8], EOG Resources (EOG)[9], Apache (APA)[10] lead that pack, but EOG is the only one that’s up by 40% in recent months and they’re certainly not South American … and there are some South American/Canadian companies that have substantial exposure like Azabache (AZA.V in Canada[11], AZBCF) and Madalena Energy (MVN.V, MDLNF), both of which are teensy.
And there are some other solid South American oil companies that have fairly wide exposure in different countries and that have gone up by roughly 40% in the last four months — I certainly haven’t scoured them all, but probably my favorite among the relatively small ones is Gran Tierra Energy (GTE)[12], which is profitable and reasonably priced (forward and trailing PE in the 10-11 neighborhood, much like YPF) in Colombia and does have a bit of Argentina exposure, though not primarily in the Vaca Muerte region. GTE’s a $2 billion company, and they’re really Canadian, not South American, but well, just throwing some names out there to get the guessification going for you.
So what do you think? Excited about YPF now that this deal gives a spurt to the Vaca Muerte region, or do you have any other favorite South American energy plays, or a better match for Moors’ tease? Let us know with a comment below.
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my guess is Ecopetrol, from Colombia, state controlled, down about 40% and NYSE listed as EC
It never ceases to amaze me how some newsletter publishers who go out of their way to offer Double long term guarantee’s and “can’t lose pitches” to entice people to subscribe manage to survive charging such outrageous fees like $1295. for mediocre results. They must have a high level of refund requests unless subscribers are complete idiots. Guess it just underlines what a bargain the Gumshoe services are. In respect to Dr. Moors, his braggadocio about being an insiders, “insider” that allows him to charge such outrageous fee’s SHOULD mean he rarely misses, but the consensus seems to be that he has more winners than losers. Only an actual subscriber could bear that out.
Maybe the problem is that his HYPERBOLE attracts people who are focussed on “quick” profits who do not have the patience to allow a pick to play out profitably. In the last few years of very volatile and manipulated markets there has certainly been a great deal of “wild swings” on a wide array of stocks. The only one mentioned I have any experience with is Grand Tierra Energy which was an early pick of mine many years ago and I recently have been thinking of getting back in. The other ones that have hit my radar in recent months are Madalena, which is on my watch list and I am considering as a timely pick in its own right, even though it does not match the sparse clues as well as American Petrogas. It also came to my attention in the past few months BEFORE the Dr. Moors teaser and would get my vote as the BEST of the lot as matching the clues and a reasonable risk/reward profile for a small speculation play. My strategy as always is to take a small position to monitor progress and only add to my holdings when I am fully convinced management knows what it is doing and delivers on its promises. Of course company strategy no matter how well managed and financed is still subject to actual drill results and that can be hit or miss as we learned with the offshore Namibia play by the well financed Brazilians. I made good money with UEC that originally owned the concessions and only had a hundred shares at risk when the Brazilians came up dry, so my take is that “blaming the analyst” is the cheap and easy shot a lot of subscribers take instead of analyzing their own risk management and “timing” skills.
I FOLLOWED THIS FROM THE MAIN PAGE IN search of information regarding 770 Accounts, and found nothing here. Where are your comments?
Lucy Baker-Dickey
The main article and discussion on 770 Accounts is here: http://stockgumshoe.com/reviews/palm-beach-letter/secret-770-account-or-the-presidents-account-explained/
TRAVIS,
You are absolutely unique.
I think the company may be Apco Oil & Gas, (APAGF)
You should be very careful when investing in South American countries. Some of their politicians have very deep pockets. Greed is rife in that part of the world. I would never invest in African mines as well. Don’t take my word for it. Just turn on your tv & watch the news. The camera’s never lie.
GOLD IS MONEY YOU CAN TRUST.
travis thx for ur help u rock!! gotta love the “thinkolator” thx 4 using it!!!
This is awesome. Just too many choices and in some cases too much risk on this one. There are better deal out there than getting involved in Argentina at this time.
I enrolled at $1295 in Moors’ Energy Inner Circle and followed his 3 recommendations of LNG, YPF and WDGJE (YPF being the Dead Cow shale). So I bought LNG at an average of $28.82 and on Fri it closed at $33.58; I bought 500 YPF at $19.14 and on Fri it closed at $20.60; I bought WDGJE at $13.15 and on Fri it closed at $13. In one week’s time the increase in my YPF and LNG purchases have virtually paid for my subscrption in one week’s time.
timbit says;
I believe your rendition is true because you say you paid for your sub. I bought the $40 letter last year, & reading his commentary over that time period, I have found he likes to move out of positions quickly with an email notice. When he first started, his record was bad for anyone wanting to wait for a position to profit, but if you are a trader and you read his letter as soon as it came out and kept your finger on trigger after you place a trade. He likes to trade a lot of options and I presume he is hedging his rec’s with them. In his cheapo letter he also rec LNG which is a nice winner so far, but to be fair he also rec’d some refinery stocks that did great. I cancelled my letter because a couple other letters also did LNG and they were the reason I bought the shares. I didn’t think a person in the room consulted by a King, President, and countless CEO’S etc. is telling the little guy (ME), the important trades that he does, for fear of damaging his rep. ergo his mediocre rec’s.
Dr. Kent Moors has an obvious agenda and can never be trusted. Anyone who says they have a rolodex full of world class energy players and has sway with many of them yet peddles a get rich quick scheme is lying. And if what he alludes to has a basic undercurrent of truth about it, that’s only due to an ability to follow the sector and be fed mostly valid news items from AP, Bloomberg or Reuters.
Being a persuasive entity in the multi-trillion dollar world energy game AND being a pusher of trite energy stock breaking-news innuendo, are mutually exclusive. He’s either one or the other. If the latter the real energy players would never let such a rube in on there meetings much less their rolodex. If the former then why would he ever risk losing credibility by publishing pump-and-dump type stock schemes?
Hi,
in the last 16 months I invested in 12 stocks recommended by Dr. Moors.
5 are down, 2 of them more than 50%,
5 are up, 2 of them more than 20%,
and 2 are flat.
In addition I lost all in an “options play” about Iran last year.
Not a positive record, so I quit this subscription after one year.
His investment reports make good reading, but the timings of
his investment recommendations are just awful.
Madalena (CVE:MVN) : http://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/companies/news/61484/dow-ypf-wintershall-deals-highlight-disconnect-with-madalena-energys-valuation-61484.html
In addition to YPF, which most people have heard of, what about PZE a smaller Argentinian Company which has acquired a 59% stake in Petrolera Entre Lomas, SA.
See below newswire. I got it from PZE. Wonder just what is the relationship with PZE and YPF and PBR????
BUENOS AIRES (MarketWatch) — Petrobras Argentina SA (PZE, PESA.BA) said Thursday that it will pay $249.4 million to increase its stake in an oil and natural-gas company owned by its controlling shareholder, Brazil’s Petroleo Brasileiro SA PBR -0.32% .
In a filing with the Buenos Aires Stock Exchange, Petrobras Argentina said it will acquire a 39.67% stake in Petrolera Entre Lomas SA, raising its total ownership in the company to almost 59%.
Petrolera Entre Lomas produces about 14,000 barrels a day of oil equivalent from fields located in the Neuquen basin, which straddles the provinces of Neuquen and Rio Negro.
“The acquisition of this stake will allow Petrobras Argentina to optimize its portfolio of assets as part of its strategy to prioritize its activities in Argentina,” the company said.
Up until now, Petroleo Brasileiro, better known as Petrobras, held a direct and indirect stake of 52.6% in Petrolera Entre Lomas, according to its latest 20-F filing with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
Travis
can you please check out Dr Kent Moor’s latest tease on Artic Oil or Ice Oil?
What company is he talking about? Is he suggesting ExxonMobil or maybe the russian company partner? Or another company?
I just got email about Artic Oil, and asked me joint Energy Inner Circle. I am checking this now.
Always go with what you know as stated earlier this is “latin america” and the true meaning is volatility better to take a measured approach with what works not what someone speculates about.
He is teasing John Wood Group- a British company that manufactures pipeline for underwater drilling.
Re Gumshoe article on Energy Inner Circle and Dr. Kent Moors
Why do peiole leave out important data:
I don’t see any date. What’s the date of all this stuff?
I do not know whether “Dr.” Moors is a fraud (as WSO asks), but in the case of LNCGY, whose stock I bought because of a massive barrage of good news he offered in its favor, he is clearly an incompetent fool.
The stock’s value went down and down…. and died. Wikipedia explains: “On 16 April 2016 the company was placed into voluntary administration [26] with some claims in the media this has been done to avoid fines from the Queensland Government [26] PPB Advisory has been appointed as the administrator.[27] On 13 May 2016 the administrators announced that in their opinion the company should be liquidated.[28]. At the second creditors meeting on 23 May 2016 the unanimous vote was for the company to be liquidated.[29]”
Congratulations, “Dr.” !!! And to all investors: BEWARE!