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23 Comments
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Scott Fife
Guest
April 15, 2009 3:41 pm

Fibtimer… I really wanted to love Fibtimer and maybe I didn’t make money because I didn’t give it enough time. They apparently posted some low double digit returns for all of 2008 but I started my subscription about the end of October. They offer a lot for their $300 per yr subscription price. You can follow their ETF timer, REIT timer, small cap timer, currency time, stock timer or all the above. I followed the ETF timer and I lost money – there are a lot of recommended trades and I think you must have the won tons to do all the trades and hope that the winning trades outnumber the losing trades. Probably if I “re-up” one of my subsciptions this would be in the top three choices.

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JoeSchmoe
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JoeSchmoe
August 17, 2009 4:56 pm

The site is nicely designed and has a lot of gadgets which gives it the “feel” they know what they are doing. However, I found their timing to be slow and after-the-fact. For the average investor who knows how to use Google and a few charting tools, I would think you would do just about the same on your own.

Fluke Smith
Guest
Fluke Smith
September 3, 2010 11:30 am

Dishonesty is the hallmark of the site. Neither TimerTrac nor any other service reports their results to subscribers on a monthly or quarterly basis. Their free newsletter omits the last quarter’s results if their are poor but touts them if they exceed the benchmark. their use i.5 times leveraged funds for S&P and small cap which can results in substantial losses since these are mutual funds and you sell the afternoon after a bad day, typically. So many investors use tight stops that the damage has already occurred before this service issues a sell signal. I was whipsawed so many times (repeated losses in the same asset class) that I discontinued. Since the market has spent so much time around its 50 and 200 day moving averages, the sell and buy signals are very frequent and results in trading costs as well as losses. This system could only be used by someone with accumulated tax losses or inside an IRA since nearly everything is short term. Plus you have to worry about the 31 day rule if non-IRA–you are in and out of the same funds all the time and never know if there will be a gain. If the market stays basically flat for a long period (as in the 70’s), the whipsaw losses will kill you in a system like this. There must be something better.

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sjp1
Member
sjp1
December 3, 2013 1:11 pm

Fibtimer states that TimerTrac.com rates their stock market timing as number one.

However, buying and holding a S&P 500 Total Return Index Fund or Exchange-Traded Fund, like SPDR, would generate a profit that is essentially the same as using the Fibtimer S&P 500 buy and sell signals, switching to a money market fund upon a sell signal. This performance comparison covers the period from May 2004 until December 2013.

If TimerTrac rates Fibtimer as number one, then every other service that it tracks performs worse than the S&P 500 Total Return Index! Hence, neither Fibtimer or TimerTrac provide any tangible investment value.

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👍 3
Mark Belami
Guest
Mark Belami
December 15, 2016 12:43 pm

I have been a FibTimer Subscriber since 1/1/2011. I traded every buy/sell alert in 2011 (about 150 of them) only to end the year with a 9.5% loss.
After that, I lost faith in their system, but stayed subscribed. I tried my own approach in 2012,13,14 only to break even after those 3 years. FibTimer at the same time raked in 250% profits. (I know because I stayed subscribed).
I decided to start trading according to FibTimer again starting 1/1/2015 but once again finished 2015 after 100+ trades with another 10% loss. I decided to continue trade with FibTimer in 2016 and to date (12/15/2016) I have a loss of 5%. Will 2017 with FibTimer recover my losses? – There is no way to tell. I will keep trading their Alerts and see what happens.

Ed Schenlli
Guest
Ed Schenlli
April 5, 2017 1:38 pm
Reply to  Mark Belami

Mark, I had the same experience with Fibtimer. My percentages almost match up exactly with yours. I switched to Mechanical Market Timing… much better service and their gains are real.

Kevin Durham
Guest
Kevin Durham
June 21, 2018 11:22 pm
Reply to  Ed Schenlli

I switched too! I subscribed to mechanicalmarkettiming.com shortly before the huge market dip in February 2018. They nailed the down turn, and I ended up using their signal to short the market until their next long came out. I’ll never use another service. I don’t know what their algorithm looks like but it is right on. Gains all day!

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Pipppy
Guest
Pipppy
November 15, 2018 8:09 pm
Reply to  Kevin Durham

How has mechicalmarkettiming.com done for you folks in the last few months? Have your results matched theirs? I ask because in looking at their published trade history I found some price discrepancies. For example on 3-Aug-2018 the PDF file with results says they went long SPY at 279.5. The problem is that all the sources I looked at (Yahoo, TradingView, Investing.com, TD Ameritrade…) show the low for the day as 282.33. So how could MMT or their subscribers get an entry price of 279.5? I checked about a half dozen published trades and all had this type of issue. Maybe it all evens out in the long run, but I have looked at enough services to know that transparency is everything. Anyway, looking for what you have experienced. Thank you.

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Bill
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Bill
February 27, 2019 5:47 pm
Reply to  Kevin Durham

Are you still with mechanicalmarkettiming.com? How did your fair during the December 2018 correction?

Kevin Durham
Guest
Kevin Durham
July 10, 2019 6:24 pm
Reply to  Bill

I am still with Mechanical Market Timing and their shots have been spot on. You won’t catch the peaks, but you will catch every trend. Once in a while they will issue signals back to back, but it always keeps you with the trend. They post all of their latest trades on the members page which you can check out with the free trial. Even with this year’s bull run they are ahead.

Kerry
Member
Kerry
July 23, 2019 8:45 pm
Reply to  Kevin Durham

Hi Kevin:

Your results with mechanicalmarkettiming.com sound encouraging.

Have you been able to enter/exit trades at the same or similar prices as they document in their published record?

The website owner, David, explained to me that he sends out signals during the trading day and for his documented trades he uses entry/exit prices that he feels the subscriber could get.

A subscriber will have to react quickly: not wait until end of day or until next day open.

I’ve been doing an extensive evaluation myself. I put all their signal dates and entries (for SPY) into a spreadsheet. I also downloaded SPY prices from Yahoo. This is for end of 2012 to June 2019. They went live in October 2012. Using their documented results the “what happens to $1.00” graph looks fantastic. If I use the next day open or signal day close prices to enter/exit, the results are not good at all. The end result for 7 years of trading is to lose a little or to have about the same as you started. The drawdowns are not too bad though.

Like Pippy mentioned there are IMPOSSIBLE trades in their documentation. I found 20 out of the 205 signals I examined had entry prices that were outside of the high/low range for the day.

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Alvin
Alvin
April 18, 2020 10:31 pm
Reply to  Kerry

I have joined http://www.mechanicalmarkettiming.com for the past 3 years which I have stop in 2019. All I can said that it is impossible to enter and exit and the price released by their signal. When I receive the alert signal, the price already shoot up or down by a few percentage points, and if your order is not executed at the same day the signal is released, then the return is negative.

In summary, market timing is about exiting at the right price and entering a the right price. Overall my portfolio return is negative during my 3 years subscription period. Maybe someone has better luck and can respond fast enough to execute the order at split seconds.

Mark Pendar
Guest
Mark Pendar
June 24, 2020 11:59 am
Reply to  Alvin

How are you doing this year with MMT? I signed up about 2 years ago but did not start trading their signals until last year. I am up almost 40% this year alone. Did you get in on the big Feb short? Even if you got in the next day you did very well, although they did not catch the very bottom of the dip to go long again. I don’t think you have to execute the trades right when you get the alerts. I wait until the end of the day when I get home from work.

Anthony Lennox
Guest
Anthony Lennox
September 23, 2021 11:27 am
Reply to  Mark Pendar

I’ve been with Mechanical Market Timing since 2018. Here is how to get the most out of it:

1. Only trade QQQ
2. When a buy signal comes out, buy 3X leveraged QQQ
3. When a short signal comes out, exit the leveraged long and buy PSQ.
4. Set stoplosses!

If you believe the direction of the stock market is up over the long term (which is obvious), you can’t lose with this strategy. You will maximize the long up trends, and still make some profit during the corrections. I wrote a script that automatically executes my trade when I get their e-mail signal, and it has been working great.

Tony

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Greg Pfeifler
Guest
Greg Pfeifler
May 8, 2023 10:22 pm
Reply to  Anthony Lennox

This is very similar to a system that I have automated using MMT with pretty good results. The only difference is I do trade SPY along with QQQ because they seem to average each other out. For example. if QQQ has a loss, SPY losses will be smaller. If SPY has a big gain, QQQ gain is usually bigger. The MMT charts use the daily timeframe, so I always check the weekly to make sure I’m not trading against it. Overall, very glad I found Mechanical Market Timing.

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Gabriel
Guest
Gabriel
August 27, 2023 4:36 pm
Reply to  Anthony Lennox

you are either in a long or short signal, how can you then set stop losses??

Mark
Guest
Mark
April 7, 2021 10:32 am
Reply to  Kerry

Do NOT join Mechanical Market Timing. I was a member of Mechanical Market Timing for a year, from 2020 – 2021. I did the same thing – created a spreadsheet with their data from 2012 to the present and compared that with Yahoo data. I found a few discrepancies but not many. However, after joining I figured out the scam. They send out alerts for buys and sells, but the prices they report are different than what they send out. For example, they will send a trade alert out at say 1 pm, saying to ‘buy SPY’. Then in their history they will put in the price of SPY that day at the low of the day! Not at 1 pm when the alert comes out. I have several examples of this on the buy and sell side. So that is the trick on how they do it. You will *never* be able to duplicate their returns since they fudge their entries and exits. Also as an aside, their customer service is non existent. If you have any questions, they will not answer you. At least once you start pointing out their inconsistencies, they cut off all communications. This website is a scam and should be reported to the SEC. I’m considering doing that so others don’t get duped by their dishonesty.

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Last edited 2 years ago by Mark
Mark Pendar
Guest
Mark Pendar
April 16, 2021 2:01 pm
Reply to  Mark

I find it hard to believe you lost money with MMT in 2020. Even if you traded the signals hours after they came out like I did, you would have been in profit and ahead of the market due to the large dip in Feb/March. Sorry theres no way you followed their signals.

Greg Pfeifler
Guest
Greg Pfeifler
May 8, 2023 10:26 pm
Reply to  Mark

@ Mark When the system looks like it’s about to change, just pay closer attention to it. You can ignore it during boring times when it’s trending for a long time (and making gains).

Herbert
Guest
Herbert
October 9, 2023 1:53 pm
Reply to  Kerry

Were the dates you looked at a bit older? Read the Trading Statistics page on the MMT site where they address that issue. It has something to do with how these stock price sites come up with the numbers and over time they can shift slightly. I’m a long time member and they always send out the signal during market hours, usually in the morning or an hour before close. They added autotrading a couple of years ago so I don’t pay much attention to the charts anymore myself. Happy with the service as it usually beats the market, especially during down trends.

William Boyett
Guest
May 14, 2017 10:53 pm
Reply to  Mark Belami

Mark, I am amazed. After losing for 6 years you continue to keep paying for their service. I would love to have you as one of my subscribers. There is no guarantee, but I’m willing to bet you’ll be better rewarded for your loyalty. As of this writing, up 21% for the last two months. Up over 2,000% since 1/1/2011. More info here: http://stocklocater.com/indextrading/

Money Down The Drain
Guest
Money Down The Drain
January 13, 2019 5:20 pm

Stay away from that service to save you from losing your hard earned money.
My 5 Years with FibTimer ended with a Loss of over $40,000 or 20% of my portfolio.
They send great analysis every weekend but fail to deliver profits.
Their trend following kept getting us in at resistance and got us out close to bottoms making losses year after year.
I don’t think they even care. They are very polite and quick to reply to emails, but even at only $149/year their service is not worth it.

geoff witt
Guest
geoff witt
May 13, 2020 2:49 pm

He replies quickly by email to individual questions. He essentially runs the JoeDuarte site as well so he seems to access to others views. Nice guy. The writing is good, but he tends to post the same banner write-ups throughout the months. Performance varies depending on the cycle.

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