Mutual fund market timing service.
Fibtimer… I really wanted to love Fibtimer and maybe I didn’t make money because I didn’t give it enough time. They apparently posted some low double digit returns for all of 2008 but I started my subscription about the end of October. They offer a lot for their $300 per yr subscription price. You can follow their ETF timer, REIT timer, small cap timer, currency time, stock timer or all the above. I followed the ETF timer and I lost money – there are a lot of recommended trades and I think you must have the won tons to do all the trades and hope that the winning trades outnumber the losing trades. Probably if I “re-up” one of my subsciptions this would be in the top three choices.
The site is nicely designed and has a lot of gadgets which gives it the “feel” they know what they are doing. However, I found their timing to be slow and after-the-fact. For the average investor who knows how to use Google and a few charting tools, I would think you would do just about the same on your own.
Dishonesty is the hallmark of the site. Neither TimerTrac nor any other service reports their results to subscribers on a monthly or quarterly basis. Their free newsletter omits the last quarter’s results if their are poor but touts them if they exceed the benchmark. their use i.5 times leveraged funds for S&P and small cap which can results in substantial losses since these are mutual funds and you sell the afternoon after a bad day, typically. So many investors use tight stops that the damage has already occurred before this service issues a sell signal. I was whipsawed so many times (repeated losses in the same asset class) that I discontinued. Since the market has spent so much time around its 50 and 200 day moving averages, the sell and buy signals are very frequent and results in trading costs as well as losses. This system could only be used by someone with accumulated tax losses or inside an IRA since nearly everything is short term. Plus you have to worry about the 31 day rule if non-IRA–you are in and out of the same funds all the time and never know if there will be a gain. If the market stays basically flat for a long period (as in the 70’s), the whipsaw losses will kill you in a system like this. There must be something better.
Fibtimer states that TimerTrac.com rates their stock market timing as number one.
However, buying and holding a S&P 500 Total Return Index Fund or Exchange-Traded Fund, like SPDR, would generate a profit that is essentially the same as using the Fibtimer S&P 500 buy and sell signals, switching to a money market fund upon a sell signal. This performance comparison covers the period from May 2004 until December 2013.
If TimerTrac rates Fibtimer as number one, then every other service that it tracks performs worse than the S&P 500 Total Return Index! Hence, neither Fibtimer or TimerTrac provide any tangible investment value.