First Hour Trading

Day trading system focused on repeated small gains in early-day trading.

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    1. Kim
      Aug 16 2010, 11:38:06 am

      First Hour Trading

      You probably have seen those ads:

      Genius chess player with a certified I.Q. of 157 unveils his ‘sneaky’ (and 100% legal) trading system which can…
      … secure net profits up to $1250
      … not in days or weeks
      … but just 59 minutes or less”

      I took the free trial to see what it is. The site is run by Manny Backus, who was already shut down once by SEC –

      The system is simple. He trades 1-2 stocks within the first hour of trading and claims for 1% profit per day. Of course having 1% per day would give you about 250% per year non-compounded.

      There are few “small” problems with his system. Most of the stocks he picks are smaller and significantly less liquid (market cap of 1-2B, in some cases less than 1B). His normal profit target is 1% (10 cents on $10 stock), and the one-way slippage could be around 0.5%. Imagine Manny buying stock like PNFP, LIHR, HS,CAGC, HANS or MCRL (those are real examples) with average daily volume of few hundred thousand shares. Then all his followers (about 100-200) trying to buy 1,000-2,000 shares each. In many cases, that’s 20-30% of average daily volume. As a result, the stock goes up 1-2% in matter of seconds – but how many got the same fill as Manny? And what do you think would happen when they all try to sell at the same time?

      No historic track record is available of course, so I tried to do my own tracking. The goal is 1% per trade. The winning rate is about 70%. The average gain is 0.35% per trade. Assuming allocation of 20k for his system (10k per trade), you would make a whopping $35 per trade before commissions. Assuming $20 for two way commissions (and most people pay more), it will leave you with $15 net profit per trade. If you make 30 trades per month, it gives you ~$450 return. Subtract $297 subscription fee – and you have $150 return on 20k investment (a whopping 0.75% per month). This return assumes that you are able to duplicate his results, which is impossible by definition.

      His chat room is run by a moderator and is heavily censored. The moderator only allows positive posts. Private chat room was available but has been blocked to avoid free exchange of information between members. When I tried to post my tracking results (based on official fills) or just some questions regarding his performance, I was censored.

      The problem is that the more people who believe the hype and sign up expecting to become millionaires due to the power of compounding 1% a day, the more impossible it actually is as increasingly large numbers chase the same one or two illiquid stocks.

      Manny is a talented internet entrepreneur whose business model is clearly will make him rich. The service is a complete scam, like the rest of his services. Be aware.

    2. Sakura
      Sep 21 2010, 01:34:06 pm

      Thank you Kim. The other day I recieved an invitation to join this newsletter. Of course it sounded too good to be true. However I thought about giving it a try. Thanks to you now I know better. Keep up the good work.

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