by Travis Johnson, Stock Gumshoe | July 11, 2011 12:30 pm
Today’s little tease comes to us from Hilary Kramer[1], who I briefly wrote about way back before the Gumshoe Vacation (that was the “Apple Killer,” which inspired a bit of discussion[2]). This time she’s telling us that she’s got a “Cancer[3] Killer” that’s ready to break out — and yes, killing cancer certainly sounds more important than killing Apple, regardless of how you feel about black turtlenecks and Adobe Flash … so who is it?
Here’s the intro:
“SPECIAL ALERT
“July 7, 2011“The last time I recommended this stock, it rocketed 38% in just 3 days.
“I expect even bigger returns this time around.
“In an epic breakthrough, this little-known biotech company has developed one of the most exciting medical advances of the last 30 years.
“The treatment is so revolutionary and the impact so far reaching, it will blow you away.
“And today, the company sits on the cusp of receiving a coveted approval. After months of closed-door meetings, a crucial decision being released by the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services before the end of the month could cause this stock to soar literally overnight. You must get on board before this happens.”
Yeah, I know — July 7 was a few days ago … but even your favorite neighborhood Gumshoe needs a vacation now and then. And if it makes you feel any better, that “crucial decision,” as I read it, came out the week before Kramer’s “special alert” and the stock didn’t really “soar” just yet. Maybe she actually wrote this back in June and the ad folks just keep using it, since the “crucial decision” came at the end of last month, on June 30.
So who is it? One more bit of the hinty spiel:
“Welcome to the Era of Personalized Medicine….
“We’re ushering in an era of personalized medicine that will see doctors and scientist will develop drugs specifically tailored only to you. The company I’m recommending today is far ahead of its competitors in doing just that.
“In an epic breakthrough, after decades of research, this small, little-known biotech company has developed one of the most exciting medical advances of the last 30 years—the first ever cancer vaccine.
“This is no ‘gee-whiz, someday in the future’ kind of thing…this drug is already approved and in use.
“The treatment takes a patient’s own cells and teaches their immune system to attack cancer cells the way it fights a virus.
“The company already has FDA[4] approval to use the drug for a specific type of cancer today. But they are using the same proven technology to develop treatments for other types of cancer, including breast, ovarian and colon cancer.
“There is no doubt that when we look back ten years from now, this will be one of the biggest game-changers of the decade. And the company will deliver windfall profits to investors who get on board at the right price.”
This must be Dendreon (DNDN)[5], maker of the FDA-approved Provenge for prostate[6] cancer. This is indeed the cutting edge of cancer treatments right now, a personalized cancer vaccine that is created for each individual and delivered intravenously in a few doses over the course of a month … for $93,000.
Which is why the big issue had been, for many people, whether Medicare and Medicaid would cover the drug — those insurance programs are not allowed to consider cost in their coverage decisions (which is also why they can’t negotiate for better drug prices), and a preliminary decision had been made to extend coverage to Provenge for some prostate cancer patients several months ago, so the final decision on June 30 was expected by the market and didn’t impact the stock price much at all.
There’s a pretty good AP article about the Medicare/Medicaid decision here[7] — basically, the drug will be covered for the indicated use (prostate cancer patients whose disease has progressed very far and who haven’t responded to other treatments), but might not be covered for “off-label” use, which as I read it would include “early” use in prostate patients as well as use against other cancers.
That still leaves a large market, with analysts estimating that revenues next year will come close to a billion dollars — and they do have other drugs in the pipeline, with the potential boost that some of them are using the same basic “personalized vaccine” technology as Provenge to fight colorectal, breast and ovarian cancers, which are among the biggies in terms of numbers of sick people. The fact that they’re using the same vaccine doesn’t necessarily mean that Provenge will be safe or effective in fighting these other cancers, but perhaps it will speed up the approval process somewhat compared to the extremely long and drawn out ordeal that Provenge had to go through as a “first of its kind” treatment.
And yes, that billion dollar revenue number does sound impressive — but this is a company that continues to have very high R&D costs and a market cap of nearly six billion dollars, so the expectations for Provenge are arguably “priced in” to some degree. Analysts are probably being conservative about revenue and earnings expectations, I would guess, since Provenge is still ramping up and, as a personalized medicine that needs fast turnaround, requires more production facilities (which each have to be FDA-approved — as some of them have been so far). So there could easily be hiccups, which may be why analysts are predicting that billion dollar (or nearly) sales number for next year, but not predicting growth after that. The prostate cancer patient pool is absolutely going to grow pretty quickly, with an aging[8] population and extended lifespans that will make prostate cancer treatment more important for larger numbers of people, so you can probably justify making your own growth projections that might be a bit more ambitious for Dendreon if you like.
And yes, if the same basic technology and treatment turns out to be a powerful way to get after breast or colon cancer, that could potentially also drive much higher revenue. The other risk that you’ll often see noted is that it will also continue to drive politicians and regulators to look at the cost-effectiveness of health care, particularly cancer treatment. The impulse is to cover everything that can possibly be justified for cancer, since it’s such a terrible disease with such painful and harsh treatments, but as more and more drugs that cost $80-100,000/year (or per treatment) come out and inspire hope among patients (which also helps to drive off-label use — like that of Avastin, for example, which is still covered for off-label breast cancer use under Medicare despite the recent FDA decision that it was ineffective for breast cancer), and as the brutal necessity to control health care costs becomes more critical in the years ahead (we are, after all, out of money), it’s hard to imagine that we won’t have a more public debate about these expensive and designer drugs. That’s not to say that this debate will turn on a dime, or that it will hit Provenge specifically, but I bet we’ll hear pundits talking it up in future health care debates as folks grapple with the concept of how much an extra few months of life is worth, if only because Provenge and Avastin are among the more high-profile high-cost treatments.
So has the market failed to take into account the potential of a $1 billion+ sales year for Provenge, and future growth from that number, or is it priced in? How much are you willing to pay for that potential growth, and for the “maybe” of applying this cancer vaccine to other large populations? Let us know with a comment below.
And if you’ve tried out Hilary Kramer’s GameChangers[9], we want to hear what you think — share your opinion by clicking here to tally your rating over at Stock Gumshoe Reviews. Thanks!
P.S. Yes, for those who are asking, we’ve also written about Kramer’s “Stock of the Decade” — that’s the one that’s supposed to revolutionize the plastics industry, you can see the article here.[10]
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I believe Northwest Biotherapeutics (NWBO) has a drug currently in trials that has shown to be much more effective than Provenge, easier to produce, and cheaper.
ADXS is another similar play that I feel has great promise to become and surpass DNDN in the near future …
do you really think that with the way things are , unless your wealthy to begin with , you can actually pull this off ? where do you live ?
A "magic bullet" that will actually CURE cancer and restore health is a pipe dream that will likely never happen despite all the hype and propaganda to extract millions from gullible suitably frightened citizens to support drug company research.
The answer to cancer is PREVENTION, which means eating a sensible natural foods diet focussed on fruits, vegetables, nuts and whole grains while avoiding ALL forms of junk food, particularly processed meats, chemically preserved, artificial colours and flavours and other chemicals foreign to the body. If you don't have enough respect for your body to AVOID things known to be harmful and the discipline to eat healthy then indeed you should fear cancer and all the other PREVENTABLE lifestyle diseases that are filling our hospitals unnecessarily.
The answer is better nutritional EDUCATION, not more poisonous drugs, and in case you are wondering, there is no such thing as a "SAFE" drug with no side effects, they are ALL to some degree detrimental and in the longer term produce more harm than help.
here, here.. well said!
There will never be a medical cure for cancer. There is too much money in it for the big pharmaceutical companies. There are natural cures for cancer, but that information is being kept from the general public.
Cancer docs say that each type of cancer is, in effect, a different disease, so there will never be a single “cure for cancer”. There are some cancers whose rates would likely drop with a healthy lifestyle — eating as you suggested, but also avoiding excess body fat and staying physically active. There are other cancers that have little to with diet and are instead inborn (bad genes). Infection with certain viruses can cause cancer, stomach infection with Helicobacter is thought to increase risk of stomach cancer, exposure to sunlight or other UV sources increases risk of several skin cancers, occupational X-ray exposure is thought to increase risk, smoking of course, and there are plenty of substances that naturally occur in foods that can damage DNA and hence increase risk. It’s a complex picture.
Ahh the gumshoe is back!! We can all rest easy again :-))
goog to hear from you hup-e u had a wondwefall vacation WEICOME BACK U WERE MISSED
Myron, you have obviously never watched a cancer patient suffer or, worse still, lost a relative to this frightening illness. So until the cancer free generation, who has lived according to your preventative measures, emerges these patients will be grateful for every advance in this field and will trade the side effects for the desperatively hoped for pain relief. I certainly hope your organic production keeps you cancer free.
ONTY P3 results this fall, NSC Lung Cancer DNDN like drug…DYODD and GL
While I agree with Myron that we should all lead a healthier lifestyle which will prevent many diseases, it will not necessarily prevent all diseases, including cancer. Sometimes these diseases are hereditary. Eating yourself to 500 lbs. will cause diseases such as high blood pressure, high cholesterol, diabetes, heart attack, organ failure, and stroke and these are preventable if you don't eat yourself to death. This doesn't mean if you maintain a reasonable weight you won't get the above mentioned diseases . . . it means you won't get them from overeating. You could still be hereditarily dispositioned to get the diseases. Same with cancer. NOBODY wants cancer, although yes, some do things to promulgate it (smoke). I say bring on all the research and types of medication possible so that the cost goes down.
I also want to say how horrible a battle cancer is and nobody ever should have to battle it. My sister lost her battle after 3 years. She had ovarian cancer. She suffered. None of the drugs worked for her.
Has anyone have any insight to this newsletter i received this am?
Dear reader,
When the history of cancer research is written, I'm confident Oncosec Medical (ONCS) will be the greatest unknown winner. Here's why…
ONCS has developed a new way of stopping cancer cells using a small field of electricity that makes the cancer cell absorb Bleomycin, a potent cancer killer.
Healthy cells are left unharmed! It's a breakthrough in treating devastating cancers of the neck, head and skin without resorting to painful and risky surgery that's now standard.
HERE'S WHAT ONCOSEC'S ASTOUNDING TECHNOLOGY OFFERS:
The ability to wipe out deadly cancer cells…Drastically, if not completely eliminating scarring and disfigurement… Surgery that took two hours can now take 15 minutes with this new technique…It costs up to 67% less…Healthy cells are saved, sick ones are destroyed.
These 4 spectacular benefits alone make OncoSec Medical, Inc. (ONCS) at around $1 a share a spectacular takeover candidate like Cougar Biotechnology that was purchased at $43 a share! I believe that OncoSec Medical could attract a $38 a share bid
Acquisition In the Biotech Field Are Going Through the Roof.
"We Expect This Trend to Continue. Small Biotech Companies
Are Game for Such Deals," Says Daily Markets
Daily Markets then says, "Companies have been looking towards biotech companies to build their product portfolios. Prime examples include Johnson & Johnson's acquisition of Cougar Biotechnology, Inc." Precisely. I'm predicting that this can happen to OncoSec Medical, Inc. (ONCS).
Do yourself a favor. Call your discount broker now and secure some of OncoSec Medical's stock before the word gets out. I'm predicting that this breakthrough will sweep the Internet.
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Profit Potential Is Absolutely Astronomical
Don't wait – the two most important words that can be said about this undervalued gem. At about a buck it is a screaming steal considering how bright its future is. Come join us!
When I was looking into DNDN, I found it gave a 10% improvement in 3 yr survival vs a placebo (32.1 percent vs 23.0 percent). One of the stocks discussed back in March, PRWP, now GALT has a drug that is starting trials in Belgium to be combined with another vaccine used to treat Melanoma. Initial results show a 300% improvement in non human studies. If it shows similar effectiveness in human trials it could be something used by many of the new cancer vaccines showing up and may improve the effectiveness of DNDN's Provenge as well.
the best place that i have seen for cancer is sunridge medical center they have a great handle on medacine they only use what seems to work they cured 3 friends and my wife of cancer when they were all told 6 months or less
Could this teaser be about the Australian company Prim Biomed, ASX: PRR.
They are currently working to get FDA approval and a US release.
??
WOOPS.
I meant to write PRIMA Biomed.
Prostate health – I recall one of the studies done on a few thousand soldiers concluded that those who ejaculated 22 times a month had significantly less chance of developing prostate cancer. That would certainly flush out the old walnut eh?
Now, I don't know about 22 times, but waht about perhaps 12 times?! -:)
Did you recive something that looks like a 12 page comic book? Its called a paid advertisment to scam you into buying a stock. The “comic book” promises you the moon! This $1.50 stock will rocket to $38.00 a share!! On and on goes the paid B.S. Sure, the “comic book” has a tiny disclaimer (use magnifier to read) and tells you they are an advertising firm and were paid to tout the B.S. BUT, the thing is written in a way to make the average person believe the “comic book” is the real deal in regards to the “stock.”
Here is a quick example: oncosec medical “a potential gold mine waiting to zing to $38.00/share, but right now is only $1.50/share—according to the paid “comic book” B.S. pusher! They even told you to invest $10,000.00 or you will be sorry! Well I only paid $1.69/share for $2000.00 worth (I did not buy $10,000.00 worth!!) 3months later, we are now at 33 cents /share! How is that for real B.S.!!!!
my mom’s oncologist just shared a new piece of information about a week ago
everolimus is the drug under trail study
it is to replace nexavar when it no longer works
and he sounded very excited about it
the maketer if NVS for everolimus
Note on ONTY (Oncothyreon)
Look like they finally have some results in from their Phase III trial of Stimuvax (Trial conducted by Merk/EMD Serrano in Germany) – two trials, START & INSPIRE, Mrk. Germany has been up this past week, and ONTY is poised to explode like DNDN or stronger since a cure for lung cancer is more applicable than just prostate. Rating anywhere from $30/sh to $202/sh – if you consider $6B market cap or more, this is entirely possible, plus 3 other drugs in the pipeline, PX-866 and ONT-10.
This might be your last time to buy under $9, and no, I don’t work for them. If it goes, I can retire. Just thought I would try and spread the news. Do some DD, figure it out and go from there. GLTD. This might be the start of a cure.
-osgo