This article originally appeared on July 22, 2015, and the bulk of it has not been updated or revised since. The meat of the ad is essentially the same, and if Lichtenfeld really “bet his paycheck” on this stock (which was and is Alnylam) on July 22 he’s so far lost about 65% of that paycheck… though he would have had similar results with betting on any biotech stock at that time, since 7/22 was only about a week removed from the all-time peak in the biotech index.
A second version of the ad back in November had a different intro, implying that the company would surge because of an announcement at a “billion-dollar facility” in Orlando in the first week of November — the “billion-dollar facility” is the Orange County Convention Center in Orlando, where the American Heart Association meeting took place from November 7-11. The shares didn’t really move based on anything that happened that week, the data was more or less positive but it wasn’t a key moment for that particular drug (ALN-PCSc). The stock has generally been acting like a 2X leveraged play on the broader IBB biotech index in recent months, since November it’s down about 40% while the broader biotech group is down 20%.
There is a lot of data coming this year, so the story of Alnylam’s attempt to get RNAi drugs approved is likely to continue to evolve — they’ll have data released mid-year for a few of their programs, and the stock is down a bit over the last few days mostly because (as I interpret it) one of their earlier-stage drugs is not proving to be as effective as some investors had hoped and might be a complementary therapy instead of a first-line therapy. They posted an update and summary of the “data rich” year to come with their quarterly update here.
So with that intro, I’ll send you back to our original article about Lichtenfeld’s teaser, which started running almost a year ago… I still have never owned the stock, and don’t personally intend to get involved in this kind of multi-billion-dollar long-term science speculation. Enjoy!
—from 7/22/15—
A lot of readers have chimed in with questions about this latest ad from Marc Lichtenfeld — it’s a pitch for his higher-end newsletter service called Lightning Trend Trader, published by the Oxford Club, and he’s got a nice big promise to get your attention — not only does he “guarantee” that you’ll have (the opportunity to) double your money in his favorite pick soon (“starting August 30”), but he’s also “betting his paycheck” that this double will happen.
None of which really matters, of course, it’s just a way to get attention by demonstrating his conviction that the stock will be a big winner. Nearly every newsletter company of any size offers at least a short-term money-back guarantee, and many of them use these kinds of “I’ll guarantee you a 100% return by X date” promises in their ads, and that feels comforting… but they do not, of course, guarantee to “make good” on that guaranteed double. In this case, Lichtenfeld’s publishers will, if he fails to generate a 100% gain for you in this stock (or give you a few chances at 100% gains in the next year), give you… another year of the newsletter for free.
Which, of course, is no skin off their nose — if you’re calling out of anger and looking for a refund, you’re not going to renew anyway, and adding another free subscriber adds no marginal cost to a newsletter’s business… nothing wrong with making the guarantee, and Lichtenfeld may end up being right, but don’t make the mistake of assuming that these “guarantees” mean it’s a surer bet than any other investment idea — it’s just a marketing tactic, and every stock needs to be understood and evaluated on its own merits before you can think about buying it.
OK, lecture over — what is the stock Lichtenfeld is pitching? It’s in the hot RNAi space but he doesn’t use that term, since it would perhaps make it too easy to identify the stock — he renames this and calls it “Gene Mutation Silencing (GMS)” and says that his favorite GMS stock is “the most profitable stock opportunity I’ve found in my 20 years in the markets.”
Here’s a bit from the ad:
“It’s a business that just picked up seven different revenue streams that could be worth $329.8 million each… It just received favored legal status that gives it a monopoly for over seven years…
“It’s sitting on a mountain of cash (more than $1 billion) and has ZERO debt.
“I calculate revenues are set to jump as much as 3,733% (or more).
“And beyond all that, the company is in control of what is perhaps the biggest development in medical history.
“Dr. Phillip A. Sharp, Nobel Prize-winning MIT biologist and ‘Senior Statesman’ of biotechnology, called the initial discovery of the technological breakthrough being utilized by this company ‘the most important and exciting breakthrough of the last decade, perhaps multiple decades.’
“This thing is so good…
“I’m going all-in, betting my paycheck that it will give you the chance to – at minimum – double your money starting August 30.”
Sounds exciting, right? He gives lots of examples of biotech stocks that he says he picked for his subscribers, generating 100% plus returns in recent years on big short-term stock moves — presumably most biotech-focused newsletters have had at least a few such winners, given the incredible 400% return the average biotech stock (as represented by the biotech index ETFs) has generated over the past five years.
And, as with all exciting biotech ideas, Lichtenfeld has a couple catalysts in mind for this one that he thinks will spike the price higher…
“The fact is, two key events are quickly approaching that could send this stock doubling in the year ahead.
“The first catalyst will occur as early as August 30, the second in early 2016.
“I’m essentially guaranteeing you’ll make money.
Are you getting our free Daily Update
"reveal" emails? If not,
just click here...“I’m so confident in this that I’m offering to WORK for FREE if you don’t see the opportunity to make a certain amount.”
OK, so I can see why the biotech investors who’ve found a home here at Stock Gumshoe are excited about the idea of this one — what is it?
I’m not going to force you to sit through my examination of the entire ad, which got awfully long and involved in trying to describe his “Gene Mutation Silencing” science without actually mentioning RNAi, but you can check out the whole “presentation” here if you’re curious. The big push is that he sees them making huge earnings from each of what are mostly orphan drugs treating rare diseases, seven drugs that it has in clinical development now (plus eight more in preclinical development), but then he goes on to pitch this “August 30” catalyst for what he implies might be the “Most Lucrative Drug of All Time” (OK, he used a question mark at the end of that… but still).
“Breaking News Coming August 30…
“The GMS company is expected to make a very important announcement on that day.
“It involves a drug that treats a cholesterol condition that directly affects more than 71 million Americans.
“Now… to give you some idea of how important cholesterol drugs can be… consider that Pfizer company’s Lipitor is the highest-grossing drug of all time.
“It’s made $131 billion for Pfizer.
“So there’s a lot of money to be made in this field… if you can produce a drug that truly works.
“And that’s what has me so excited.
“On August 30, our GMS company is set to release the data on its drug.
“And let me tell you, I’ve already seen the numbers… and they are impressive.
“Levels of low-density lipoprotein cholesterol – or “bad cholesterol – are down as much as 57% for patients taking the drug.
“And tests show ‘no serious adverse effects.’
“On August 30, it’s going to release this positive data….
“… the company might have THE premier drug in a $19 billion-a-year market.”
And just in case that wasn’t enough, he tosses a few more clues on the pile — that it might get get bought out by one of the giant pharma companies, and that Genzyme bought 12% of the company, and the CEO has been buying shares, adding $950,000 worth to his holdings in January.
And the second catalyst, coming in “early 2016” he thinks, is that the stock could be added to the S&P 500. That’s possible, I suppose — I haven’t checked to see whether it meets the basic criteria for public float and liquidity, but it probably does, and it’s definitely big enough with a market cap over $10 billion.
So yes, we do know who this is — Lichtenfeld is teasing Alnylam (ALNY)
I know, again. ALNY is the poster child for RNAi and “fountain of youth” stocks, and has been an irresistible target of teaser campaigns for years, from the Oxford Club and others. We recently re-posted an article from 2013 about the “Magic Keys to Immortality” when the Oxford Club first started touting this company, and Michael Robinson teased the stock for his Nova-X report a couple months ago as well.
That first pitch, from the Oxford Club two years ago, was nicely timed — the stock was around $30 now and it’s now at about $130, so that’s a 300%+ gain during a time when the broad biotech index, as represented by the IBB ETF, was up “only” 125%.
And yes, the clues still match perfectly in the ad, though the short-term impact from their cholesterol drug is likely to be quite muted compared to Lichtenfeld’s excitement over the “August 30” news. They do have a drug that has shown a very powerful ability to reduce cholesterol levels, but that’s in patients who have Hypercholesterolemia, extremely high cholesterol levels that almost guarantees heart problems. This is an area where there’s critical need for treatment, but a small number of sufferers, typical of orphan drugs (I didn’t check to see whether this particular drug, ALN-PCS and the subcutaneouo ALN-PCSsc, has orphan status from the FDA). When Lichtenfeld tosses out the 71 million number and the Lipitor sales numbers, and dreams of blockbuster drugs surge in your head, that’s assuming that this drug moves on from their very small-scale orphan treatment of people with extremely high cholesterol and gets used more broadly at some point in the future — 71 million is the number usually tossed around for the number of people who have “high cholesterol” … the kind of folks who are told to maybe take a statin, exercise, and improve their diet, not the folks with Familial Hypercholesterolemia (there are other varieties as well) who live in fear of having their first heart attack before they become teenagers.
There are other drugs that are far ahead of ALN-PCS in treating Hypercholesterolemia, particularly the monoclonal antibody PCSK9 inhibitors that seem to be on the doorstep of getting approved by the FDA (Sanofi/Regeneron’s Praluent, which will probably be approved this week, and Amgen’s Repatha, which was approved in Europe yesterday and is looking for an FDA response in a month or so). I don’t know if they’ll turn out to be better or not, but they’ll probably be in use several years before ALN-PCSsc since that drug is still in Phase 1 trials. It’s true that they expect to have some results available from that trial by “mid year” as of their last announcements, so perhaps that’s what the August 30 date points to, but that’s not going to generate real revenue immediately. That particular drug is partnered with The Medicines Company (MDCO), and it did indeed achieve excellent results in the first Phase 1 trial of ALN-PCS back in 2013 (that’s where the 57% reduction in LDL cholesterol number comes from)… presumably Lichtenfeld (or his copywriter) is implying that he already knows the results of this current trial because the prior trial was successful — I can’t imagine he actually has any inside information on the trial results of the ongoing trial, since that would be illegal. Even implying that he knows how the trial is going in the ad is pushing it a bit, frankly.
Not that ALN-PCS is the most important drug for Alnylam — I don’t want to imply that this $10 billion company is trading just based on one Phase 1 trial. They’ve been pioneers in RNAi and have partnerships with several big pharma companies — their lead drugs, including one in Phase III trials, are aimed at TTR-Mediated Amyloidosis and you can see the full pipeline here.
Beyond that, you’re on your own — folks here have looked at ALNY many times over the past couple years, our biotech columnist Dr. KSS commented on their progress and valuation back in May and the stock comes up in his discussions about RNAi from time to time. I’ve learned to avoid getting too detailed with biotech companies because the valuations have little to do with financials or business prospects and everything to do with science and sentiment — and I am not going to become an expert on the science, so the more I write about these stocks the more I make mistakes. I’ll leave it to you to discuss. Enjoy!
P.S. So… are the folks who subscribe to Lightning Trend Trader for $1,495 because they’re excited to learn about this stock going to be mad when they learn that it was previously a special report stock heavily touted by the $149 Oxford Club Communique for most of the past two years? Seems a bit odd that they’re using the same stock to push these two different letters, and that the $149 Communique promo has still been circulating as recently as last month.
Gummy,
I’m not dummy. How many shares at $130 per share do you think that I can buy?
TJ
I’m not urging anyone to buy, of course, but unless you either can’t afford a single share or insist on using options (and therefore need round lots of 100 shares), the share price is more or less irrelevant. If it makes you feel better, just imagine that each share you buy is actually 10 shares at $13 each.
Thanks Travis, I suspected you confirmed. Too cheap for lightning trader. Oxford recommends a tight stop.
Huh… interesting, I wonder whether Lichtenfeld had a “tight stop” on these ALNY shares? Seems unlikely, since he was pitching them pretty aggressively both in the $120-130+ area in mid-2015 and a year later in the $50-70 range a few months ago.
Excellent writeup, a bit lengthy, & helpful.
We have indeed seen quite a few pro ALNY pieces over the past year or so. I did my own followup reading and concluded that there is something here. The only problem is the valuation and that it is already a momo stock, so volatility reins. If you’ve got the stomach for it, I think it’s worth a small position until something more concrete occurs.
I found it interesting that Lipitor gets mentioned as one of the most profitable drugs ever generating $131, Billion. Interesting because I have done considerable research on statins and came to the conclusion that cholesterol is not as big a problem as the medical profession makes it out to be, except for those whose diets are really terrible and their high levels could be controlled by changes in lifestyle. The clincher for me was when ads began appearing on Canadian television for a class action lawsuit against Pfizer because women taking Lipitor were becoming diabetic, a disease I was diagnosed with myself 7 months ago.
This is a typical situation of “unintended consequences” brought about by use of drugs designed to interfere with the bodies natural functions. It so happened that I was prescribed Crestor (another statin) along with high blood pressure medication and blood thinners, but I have managed to get my blood sugar levels stabilized with less and less insulin, (strict diet of natural foods) and since I stopped taking Crestor my energy level has greatly increased and the “itchy skin” common side effect for diabetics has completely disappeared. I do not claim to know what difference in formulation exists between Lipitor and Crestor, but for me I do not believe the risk/reward is favourable for statins except in extreme cases of super high cholesterol, and then only temporarily until lifestyle changes can mitigate the situation. Of course the medical profession will claim such anecdotal experiences such as mine are irrelevant and will continue to prescribe drugs as long as they are not taken off the market because of undesirable side effects as so many are after many years of damaged patients who place undo trust in their pharmaceutical oriented and trained doctors.
Lots of debate about statins, here and elsewhere — though in this particular case the actual drug being tested is starting out with hypercholesterolemia, which is often familial and life-threatening (heart attacks in your 20s and 30s are common) and has nothing to do with a person’s diet or exercise. I assume they’d love to also create a colossus of a drug fighting “regular” high cholesterol, but that would be well off into the future.
Being in the medical field, Anatomic Surgical Pathology to be specific for many moons it is a documented fact that “Statins” over a period of time, which is shorter or longer depending upon ones physiologic makeup are also murder on the joints and related to many other orthopedic issues. And if everyone could, or I should say had the discipline or the means to eat better and more natural then we wouldn’t have the needs for a lot of medications then where would the biotech industry be. Most medications are developed for those who aren’t able or willing to do the things which would eliminate or greatly reduce their symptons for which they’re taking the medication for in the first place. In fact the pharmaceutical and biotech industry is counting on us not to so they can develop a medication to do it for you and is also why there’s been an ongoing debate over whether or not they truly want to find a cure for cancer, etc. Approximately 60%-70% of employment is tied to healthcare in some way or another so imagine what the negative implications for unemployment would be should cancer or any other chronic or fatal disease actually be cured. Think about it…..
Nice to see a medically trained professional willing to candidly admit their are problems with certain drugs and their side effects. My doctors never warned me about potential side effects of any drugs they prescribed so I could make an informed decision whether to take them or not. I had to do my own research to determine that on my own, so thank you for pointing out the motive is MONEY, not patients best interests or long term health. I hope you are not suggesting that we should tolerate a corrupt system simply to keep more people employed instead of teaching them how they can take responsibility for their own health with changes in lifestyle”
I have high cholesterol, 320 level if I don’t take any meds was diagnosed back in the mid 90’s. Me and statins don’t get along. My current doctor has been trying to see if something will work to get me below 200. Been at it for the last five years. I’ve been through pretty much every statin on the market. My problem is;it does nothing or it lowers my cholesterol level but raises my liver ALTs/ASTs or something of the sort. I just know it’s not a good trade-off. Currently, I’m on Crestor been a 2 months go back to my doctor in about 2 weeks and see how its performing. This will be the last statin we try. If its a no-go, I’ll just completely off statins and monitor my other health factors. Luckily, my doc gives me credit for being his healthiest high cholesterol patient ever. I have no other health issues as far high-blood, risk of diabetes, etc. Though, my knees are shot and cervical disc degeneration…C6&C7, I think. And similar issues in lower back discs…but nothing too serious…just slowed me down in competitiveness type sports. I simply exercise to stay healthy. Oh and I eat great…don’t indulge in anything. And just for gee-whiz info; I once dieted for 6 full months and participated in some heavy exercise routines during this time about 5 yrs ago. Breakfast: bowl of oatmeal w/raisins, 2 boiled eggs whites and 1 slice of wheat toast, coffee with cream. Lunch: large salad no dressing & some type of fruit, water/Gatorade. Dinner, baked chicken(no skin) or baked fish veggies and a starch (either brown rice and/or potatoes), water/Gatorade. No sodas, no red meat, no fried anything, no desserts. Drank alot of water, gatorade, sugarless tea in-between meals along with those cliff energy bars. I literally did this for 6 months…returned home, made an appoint to have my cholesterol check. Because, I did this specifically to see if I could bring my cholesterol to under 200 through diet and heavy exercise, while taking a daily statin. And I have to tell you I was in great shape, probably better or just as good in my mid 20’s. Still, clocked in at 223. I don’t ever recall having my cholesterol under 200 in my adult life…just thought, I share.
wheat is very bad for you. i have family members that were diabetic and stopped all wheat . within 2 months they were tested and removed from all medication . There cholesterol has fallen steadily as well and now there weight. Wheat is in white floor and many products watch out.
I began taking Red Yeast Rice (400-600 mg/day) when Lipitor began giving me problems. My bad Cholesterol went down, and the good went up. Red Yeast Rice, available over-the-counter (I get mine at a mail order vitamin site) does contain a natural statin-like substance, so you should take CoQ10 with it, just like you should with statins. It was recommended by my doctor, who stopped his Lipitor and began the Red Yeast Rice. Don’t know if it could help you, but it sure helped me.
My wife is the same way, her diet is that of a rabbit yet her Cholesterol is over 300. I made her stop taking statins and changed her diet, now her cholesterol is 170.
extet@aol.com
You sound like a proactive person and your heart and motivation are definitely in the right place but you’ve been misled by a corrupt medical system and a doctor who may simply not know any better. You’re cholesterol at 223 is actually quite acceptable. One of the greatest myths foisted on the American people in the last 4 decades is the myth (and big pharma $$ generator) that cholesterol levels below 200 are healthy. Simply not true! Stroke and heart attack occur with increasing frequency as cholesterol levels drop below 200. The further below 200, the higher the frequency becomes. Cholesterol is a vital component in our bodies and we can not function without it. That cholesterol has nothing to do with the advent of heart disease has been known and suppressed since the early 60s. I’m not talking about extremes…folks with hypercholesterolemia. That’s another issue entirely. My advice for you is stop relying on your MD to give you your health information. Start researching alternative systems (naturopathic, holistic, ayurvedic ) and consult a naturopathic doctor instead of a “conventional” MD who only knows big pharma sponsored allopathic medicine…a methodology that simply does not work for “chronic” conditions. Most (not all) MDs know nothing about nutrition and unfortunately they look with suspicion and derision at any other form of medicine outside of their Big Pharma promoted allopathic system that has done incalculable harm to our population. That has been thoroughly suppressed by big pharma, aided by our own government (also sponsored by Big Pharma unfortunately). There are indeed natural ways to maintain healthy cholesterol levels at proper ratios. They do exist but they don’t generate the billions in profit that our corrupt medical system thrives on so you’ll never ever hear it from a big pharma sponsored/maintained allopathic M.D.
Unfortunately TRUE, the pharmaceutical industry is focused on PROFIT, not health and since medical doctors are steeped in traditional so called medical science they are not for the most part open to safer, cheaper natural cures. As an earlier poster admitted, the profession really thrives on ignorance and lack of discipline of people who have never studied nutrition and its primary role in promoting good health, they simply offer “quick fixes” that are often worse than the disease itself. As my own doctor admitted to me, (didn’t even have one until I was in my 70,s) “ALL drugs have undesirable side effects” they are unnatural, interfere with normal bodily processes and technically poisons that can damage the liver and kidneys that have to deal with them as they contribute nothing to building healthy cells and tissues. For the record, diabetes is 100% curable (and preventable) through a natural as opposed too processed food diet, tens of thousands of informed people have proven that to be true and I am happy to report that I have now been totally off insulin for nearly a month but still check my blood sugar level every other day (formerly 4 times per day under doctors orders who started me on 10 units of Lantus at night and 4 units of Humalog 3 X during the day which I was able to progressively reduce and now my numbers are better than they were while still taking them , much to my doctors surprise.
Let me also confirm other posters observations that high cholesterol is NOT a problem needing a pharmaceutical remedy, it can be controlled by a healthy diet, in fact Co Enzyme Q10 has far more heart protective properties than any statin’s will ever have, in fact statin’s INHIBIT the bodies production of Q-10 which is essential to the beating of the heart. The other key factor not recognized by the medical profession that insists everyone can get all the vitamins and minerals they need from their diets is a fallacy that borders on the criminal. There are numerous peer reviewed and published studies that defiiciences are actually common based on the Standard American Diet appropriately abbreviated as “SAD” case in point, preventing heart attacks. The issue here is not cholesterol clogging the arteries but the bodies lack of Vitamin K2 that is necessary for the proper metabolism of CALCIUM which instead of ending up in your bones to prevent osteoporosis instead ends up producing plaque that narrows and hardens your arteries leading to high blood pressure, another common but preventable problem for which drugs are prescribed that DO NOT solve the problem, just mitigate the symptoms.
Bottom line, it is very difficult to get enough Vitamin K2 from your diet unless you eat cruciferous vegetables daily such as Kale, broccoli,cabbage and other greens etc, which most people do not do. K2 is also not included in most multi-vitamin formula’s, particularly the synthetic versions sold in most drug stores, it is a specialty product produced by only a few firms and should also include Vitamin D. Bottom line, what the average medical doctor dosen’t know, consider or test for would fill a small library and take years of dedication to studying the available literature, and the best compilation of information I have found is a Natural Cures Encyclopedia published by the Natural Health Institute which is comprised of 10’s of thousands of the most enlightened medically trained doctors and researchers who only use drugs in emergencies and desperate situations where patients are unwilling to change their destructive lifestyles. For the average doctor, writing a prescription is just easier (and more profitable) than trying to educate people on how to take care of their own health as they should be doing.
Do you have familial hypercholesterolemia? It’s typically in the 300+ range.
I don’t want to repeat what the other replies said, but the crux of the matter is not the cholesterol per se, it is the oxidization of LDL. Statins are a very brute force approach to reducing LDL particle count. Until PCKS9 (or ALN-PCS which I know nothing about) comes out, I don’t believe there is any targeted approach available for reducing LDL particles. However, if you focus on preventing the oxidation of LDL then the whole LDL count issue may become moot because OxLDL and Nitrous Oxide have an inverse relationship effect on the endothelium. Once the endothelium becomes dysfunctional, that is where all the trouble commonly associated with cardiovascular disease beings. There is no doubt PCKS9 will become a blockbuster drug assuming the unintended consequences are not too severe, if only because fat f**ks want to continue to stuff their pieholes with toxic nonfood instead of being responsible.
Very funny! I meant NITRIC oxide. 🙂
And I forgot to add that all cause mortality is lowest with total cholesterol around 220. So total cholesterol below 200 is a misguided and indirect attempt to lower LDL particles.
I was same, it is genetic, also had hypertriglyceridemia, 800 or more. Poisoned by statins, CPK level went through the roof, like 5K or more.
Ended up having bariatric surgery 3 years ago, Duodenal switch. Now at 63 I take nothing except a vitamin daily and have for the first time in my life cholesterol and triglyceride levels at 120/130. Would never have found out about this but was at a party and a guy had this done. His bloodwork had been exactly like mine. Don’t understand why more people don’t look at this.
Amazing
Cholesterol and its role in human health is still badly misunderstood. There is respectable medical research that puts lie to the idea that dietary cholesterol plays any role at all in cardiac health. (Look for yourself by googling “cholesterol myth”. You will be a convert before you reach the bottom of the first page.) The companies creating drugs to treat “high” cholesterol are no different than the snake-oil salesmen of old, but behemoth drugs like Lipitor are already ingrained into consciousness. And it certainly does lower your cholesterol! But it didn’t need lowering in the first place. If and when this becomes common knowledge, what happens to the companies pawning off panaceas for nonexistent diseases?
I just found out that I was guaranteed to(have the opportunity) to win the Publishers Clearing House Sweepstakes.
Since Ed McMahon passed away I lost the excitement of checking the envelope, so it goes file 13.
Jan,
With your PCH winnings and my share of the Nigerian prince’s money he’s giving me just to use my checking account, we are going to be REALLY RICH !!!!
Statin drugs, one of the biggest money makers for Big Pharma ever! Just remember, It is all about the money, and not about what is best for you. If I go to my doctor and complain about an illness, you can just see him going through a list of drugs in his head to dispense. A few drugs will help, such as knocking out an infection. But overall, drugs do more harm than good, and cause you to need more drugs to counteract the negative effect of the first drugs taken. It is better to not let yourself get in such horrible shape in the first place, and then expect the Medical profession to pull a miracle out of the drug bag. Eat nutritiously, avoid sugary drinks, limit wheat products and soybean oil which makes you put on weight, and above all, keep moving, and ditch the couch!
Most Doctors are wonderful people and very caring. We clearly have several here but unluckily just like everything else the brainwashing kicks in pretty heavy. I assume most doctors on this board recall their days as residents and the no sleep routine they were put through. Similar to military training. This had to have an effect in your unconscious mind.
We do not know when the media is training us to think a certain way if we are always watching. Nuff said I already sound like a looney to most I assume. I stopped watching commercial TV 5 years ago and it is still having an effect I am sure.
Doug
This one’s being pitched pretty aggressively again today — lots of comparisons to Lipitor again, hinting that ALNY’s drug for cholesterol could someday be that kind of hit ($131 billion in total sales). That’s hogwash, not only is ALNY’s RNAI cholesterol drug in the very early stages but it’s also not for just “lowering cholesterol”… it’s for hypercholesterolemia, dangerously high levels of cholesterol, usually a familial condition.
That’s also largely what the just-approved PCSK9 inhibitors Repatha and Praluent are being approved for, to start, though everyone hopes that their hypercholesterolemia drug will eventually become a “give it to everyone to get cholesterol down” drug like the last generation of statins (Lipitor, etc.). Not going to happen fast, and there is, of course, a very good chance that it won’t happen at all — Alnylam’s drug is at least three years from approval, if we think it will follow a similar pathway to Amgen’s Repatha (which started Phase II about three years ago and got approved a couple months ago), but I would suspect that there’s a very high risk that Alnylam’s drug will require more or longer safety-focused clinical trials than Repatha or Praluent.
I have just now joined your service and am excited to see all of these interesting comments. I was just about to fall for Marc’s Lightening service, when I began to dig a little on google and found you! You’ve all saved me! Looking forward to your service and future light and knowledge. : )
Invest in Altria, but don’t smoke. Double your returns, good health and money on the backs of the stupid. Politely, it’s ironic, less politely, it’s criminal.
Certainly not criminal to invest in Altria or my 95.5 year old mother would have been in jail long, long ago.
$MO #WTF? http://www.stockgumshoe.com/2016/07/microblog-w-t-f/ David B, Your mother and mine were born within a month of each other. 🙂 http://investor.altria.com/phoenix.zhtml?src=topnav&c=80855&p=irol-irhome #RuleOf72 #Income
#8thWonderOfWorld ~@H0U3
Just saw this Ben as I don’t follow the Gummune as closely as you. My Mom born 12/24/1920 and smoked from age 18 to 83. She is still alive and in good shape. I need a good retirement plan : )
Lichtenfeld has raised his head again with this same pitch for Lightning Trend Trader. He has taken a different approach this time by tucking the link to his promo in an e-mail from Investment U (an arm of Oxford Club) with the headline “What Happened With This Biotech Could Happen Again in 2016.”
Includes a word for word repeat of “Dr. Phillip A. Sharp, Nobel Prize-winning MIT biologist and ‘Senior Statesman’ of biotechnology, called the initial discovery of the technological breakthrough being utilized by this company ‘the most important and exciting breakthrough of the last decade, perhaps multiple decades.’
“This thing is so good…
“I’m going all-in, betting my paycheck that it will give you the chance to – at minimum – double your money . . .” in the newer version received March 31, 2016. What has happened to all the growth since its original “discovery” since last July?
Just speed read the comments. Take a look at the 2016 insider trading. It seems to be perculating in 2016.
I just check ALNY and it is at $58, did it split?
No, it dropped about 60% over the last 10 months.
I got “The Pich” in the mail yesterday. Rather than plunking down $1.475 Kilodollars, I hit Google, and did find ALNY as the most likely target, before I found this site. Interestingly, as of today, 25 May 16, ALNY is up sharply, $4.79 to $62, and it makes me think… the Pitch went out in a mass mailing in the last 2 days or so. I wonder how many people did in fact sign up, pay big $$, and pushed the stock higher, with no other news whatsoever on it.
I think that after Thursday’s key reversal “bear” bar….it looks like an appealing short term put option play to me.
Now they are charging $1750/yr – glad I checked with stockgumshoe first!
And… what was one of the better-performing teaser picks for a couple years now becomes among the worst. That’s life with biotech, especially when investors get “overpromised” about the fantastic things to come and something changes the story overnight and the stock gets cut (in this case) in half.
This might also serve as a reminder of something we try to talk about every now and then: that “tight stops” sometimes don’t mean anything for news-driven stocks like Alnylam, and stop-loss orders can give you a false sense of security (“I can only lose 10% or 20% because I’m keeping tight stops”). Most investors know the risks in biotech, of course, but if you let the notion of stop losses as your “risk management” tool get too ingrained in your psyche you might forget that it doesn’t always work — with biotech stocks and similar news-driven investments that have hugely binary results (as in, succeed or fail — there is no middle ground), then your actual “capital at risk” is ALL OF IT, not the 20% or so you might think of as the loss you’re willing to take before you “stop” out of the shares.
If you’re counting on a FDA decision or clinical advancement that could be advanced or derailed in the space of a single press release, then there’s a pretty good chance that a company’s value in the eyes of other investors can move instantly, often when the market isn’t open. As the market was coming to a close yesterday, there were plenty of investors lined up ready to pay you $70 for your ALNY shares… today, the moment the market opened, no one was willing to bid much more than $37 for a share. Sometimes there isn’t a line on the chart, just a blank space between lines.
This can happen to any stock, of course — you never know when a genuine scandal or something shocking could happen to a company in any industry. But it’s far more common in the news-driven, “hit or miss” areas like pharma/biotech and mining and, to a lesser extent, “emerging” technology stocks.
GOOD ADVICE: certainly needs to be taken into consideration in mining stocks as well which is WHY I am very selective in what mining stocks I invest in. When you stick with Mgmt. teams with previous success and track records, promising initial drill results, adequate financing for further exploration with permits in place you have considerable protection against “black swan” events and IMO less volatile than bio-techs depending on FDA approval which to me is the ultimate speculation. Persona;y I will not touch bio-techs with a proverbial 10. ft. pole because of my disdain for the whole pharmaceutical industry. SURE, if you ar lucky you may hit the ocassional winner, but at what cost? Just do some research on the number of drugs that get approved, (the FDA is funded by the industry to the tune of billions, so where is the objectivity and checks and balances. and then years later get taken off the market because of horrendous side effects, thalidomide anyone?
I wonder how Mark feels this week after to stock dropped 50% ?
Probably thankful that it was only one paycheck 😉