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Million-Dollar Contrarian Portfolio
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348 Subscriber Reviews of Million-Dollar Contrarian Portfolio
Review by Dave, April 13, 2009
I have recently subscribed to the million-dollar portfolio because it offered a 90-day money-back trial. I have noticed a few disturbing things: (1) Responses to the “blog” are moderated, and 2 of my recent comments [mildly critical of the negative returns thus far considering that stops were not specified] were filtered out. (2) The investment returns are not honestly presented: only 10% of the $1M has been invested at an overall loss of about 12-13% last time I calculated it, but because the other 90% has been “invested” in short-term treasuries, that 90% (with minimal or no loss) is included in the calculation of the over-all investment return, and greatly dilutes the loss from the 10% of actual investments. (3) There is no attempt to make use of the current rally, and instead Martin is still advising selling virtually all of one’s holings. I had followed his advice in early March and hence have since missed most of the very substantial gains of this past month. (4) Within the Weiss Research camp, there are substantial differences in opinion about where the market is headed–not all are in agreement with Martin that we are heading for a depression; yet that scenario seems to more or less be a prerequisite for making money in the Contrarian Portfolio.
I worry that Martin (as others here have alluded to) is intent on re-living his father’s experience in the ‘29 crash, and is unable to be objective about the current market. It is all very troubling.
I have also just subscribed to Larry Edelson’s service, and he has kindly sent a batch of “reports” that were published in Feb, 2008. Incredible.
Review by Dave, April 18, 2009
Update: now down about 15% in current positions (no gains in any of the current investments), and having ignored a 25-30% INcrease in the market, the MCP will need to appreciate substantially just to get back to where we would have been (had we not followed Martin’s advice a month+ ago to exit the market) and to recover current losses. The hype for subscribers is, in part, the intention to stay “flexible”, but flexibility was not in evidence during the current very substantial run-up in the market–not one iota of advice to gain from the run-up (the advice was to sell) — no investment in even an S&P 500 ETF, which would have been rather better than nothing, and certainly better than the current losers. As Dr. Weiss makes clear from his freebie pubs, he expects DOW = 5000 in the near future, and that is the bet we are asked to make with the MCP.
Review by momzilla, April 27, 2009
Dave, I am sorry to hear about your experience. I was very interested in the million dollar contrarian portfolio because it sounded so good and I wanted to make up for some of what we had lost in our accounts. But after talking it over with my husband I did not do it. After reading the blogs, I was glad I didn’t. It was a too good to be true scenario for me. But my spouse broke it down for me like this. (I am NOT stock market savvy. Just a stay at home mom that saw Martin Weiss’ ad on GlennBeck.com) He said that if Weiss just got enough people to join at $1500 or $2500, it would cover his cost, no matter what the market did, he wouldn’t lose any money. He has your membership dollars. And he had Claus spouting out that they were looking at “long term” that was key. If they said that, long term, meaning 5-10 years, they were off the hook because most of the investors thought they would recoup their losses within 30-90 days. But you [members] have to hold onto your gains for over a year or you would get screwed on taxes if you cashed out before the year was up. The bear market is a tricky one to play and that was why he was only going to allow me $5000 to invest with Martin. But when the market had the gains it did, I was glad I did not join and listened to my husband. We didn’t lose as much as most people did since we pulled out at 14000, but it still hurts to lose money you work hard to earn. I am sure you are a very intelligent fellow and know a lot more then I do about the markets. I hate for anyone to get taken advantage of, but at least you have the 90 day money back guarantee. I was reading the Weiss contrarian blogs for awhile and it broke my heart, but as of today, I can’t access it unless I have a usernam and password. That says a lot to me. I wish you luck.
Review by UnderstandWeiss, May 5, 2009
There are some misunderstandings of this Weiss portfolio.
The portfolio has apparently been gingerly dipping its toes in the short side (i.e. negative expectations) which turns out to have restrained the portfolio from larger losses.
Weiss and Vogt’s expertise is understanding the big picture, the economy, and looking past the fluff presented by the dominant media. They are not week to week market timers, and they are sure to get that wrong like anyone else.
There is no reason to expect them or anyone to have predicted that the last few weeks period would be a sudden melt-up in the markets. (People that predicted that also predicted a lot of rises then never happened, so forget them.)
There are few people, if any, that can “time” any given period of a few weeks or a few months (maybe Jeff Clark of Stansberry Research can do that, and even he is very choosy as to when to venture a prediction).
So far this should all be obvious — even to the whiners who expect perfection from everybody except themselves. So lets get to the less obvious.
The tragic flaw in the Weiss portfolios is that they use inverse ETFs that recalculate and reformulate on a daily basis.
They love these products because they are convenient and because unlike with classic shorting, their subscribers cannot lose more than they invest, even in the worst case. (The alternative of stop-lossing can cause whiplash so it is no magic bullet either.)
The inverse ETFs have the built-in flaw, with examples given in their prospectuses, that they inexorably LOSE MONEY over time caused by daily fluctuations and rebalancing, even if their underlying indexes come back to their starting value over a period of time.
So buying these ETFs only makes sense for quick in and outs, like intra-day trading or a few days or maximum a few weeks. Weiss uses these inverse ETFs as long-term short positions, a no-no. That’s hoping that a crash will come soon enough and sustained enough to rescue this kind of shrinking instrument.
Finally, before whining about Weiss honesty and lashing out, Dave, look into the mirror.
Wiess includes ALL positions, from what you describe, which is the correct and fair thing to do. Their accounting/reporting job is to be objective and not to focus on your personal pain but on the net result of the portfolio, whether it is bad or whether (hopefully in the future) it is good.
Review by Bob S, May 14, 2009
I am a charter subscriber to the Million Dollar portfolio. I have invested in some of the recommendations, but with all of them in the tank, have stopped doing so. I have to echo many of the critical comments above. It is likely I will cancel in the next several weeks. I am looking to unwind from some of these positions.
I, too, think I finally understand how inverse ETFs work and now agree that we have no business investing in them for long term plays. Thanks “UnderstandWeiss” for noting this. There was an excellent analysis of the dangers of EFTs done recently in a mea culpa mailing by Justice Litle of Taipan
http://www.taipanpublishinggroup.com/taipan-daily-051309.html
However to say that the portfolio has restrained losses by “gingerly dipping its toes in the short side” makes no sense to me. The shorts cannot be considered an offset to either its small long positions in gold, or certainly not the bulk of the holdings, which are in T-bills. If the shorts were meant to offset long positions in the general market (gold related stocks are really a special case), then I’d agree with you.
When this service was marketed - they had produced a video that showed hundreds of positions supposedly recommended by Claus in the past year scrolling by, all with huge gains. Of course you couldn’t read the symbols in the video. Now, with a huge bear market opportunity missed, subscribers will need to wait for the next big drop to recover some of their losses.
The other thing that was a big selling point to me was the blog. Some of my comments have been ignored, and to see that this has also happened to others - the apparent censorship now has become a big irritant to me.
Overall, I don’t see any different strategy with this service so far than with Weiss’ $99 Safe Money Report. So I’ll plan on getting my $1500 back.
Review by stars1234, May 15, 2009
I signed up only because of the 90 day money-back if I don’t like it. I’m about ready to request the return of my money. Hopefully, I will get it and without any hassle.
So far all the rally opportunity has been missed.
One of the stocks recommended seems to be doing okay, although that’s only because I bought more after a substantial decline after originally purchasing it on the recommendation–somewhat of timed, dollar-cost average. The same thing is true for a reverse ETF in the S&P 500. The initial buy turned out bad. With my own research, I picked up more at a buy point I thought was good. Since then, that has gone up enough that the loss from the 1st buy is offset, barely.
The service has just not performed, yet, as the tape has moved against it. Even though I think the fundamentals as well as technical, market is overbought is sound, the rule is to not fight the tape. The market’s going to do what it wants to do. –wait for it? Well, yes. That usually works, but there are lots of lost opportunities along the wait.
The only way I have made money is by averaging the loss by buying more on the way down. The good thing I can say is that I’m pretty good at cyclical market day trades. And that’s what has saved me, to break even.
Today, I will ask for instructions as to how to unsubscribed and get my money back. I noticed that the fine print says such a request must be made in writing. I hope that should I decided to ask for the money back, they won’t say they never received my request. –oh, I’ve sent in comments to his blog, asking hard questions. they were never published.
Review by MikeW, May 16, 2009
Thanks everyone. I too get Martin’s free email service. His MCP was too dear for me @ $1,500. Some people however, did catch this rally, notably Peter Grandich (his service is free) and Chris Weber. Incidentally, both Grandich and Weber have turned bearish again as of this past Friday (so maybe Martin will make up some lost ground).
Review by SnoopyJC, May 18, 2009
I answered his ad by asking what is their performance to date, and he wrote back that he is “down by 2.05%, but mostly still in cash”, so he must be down a pretty penny on the investments that he DID make!!
He’s excellent in his Macro views, but not in playing them properly in a dynamic portfolio - this is a very challenging market, though, especially with his self-imposed rules of giving his subscribers 2-days notice before he makes the trades!!
–joe
Review by Dave, May 18, 2009
>>So far this should all be obvious — even to the whiners who expect perfection from everybody except themselves. So lets get to the less obvious.<<
As a non-stop whiner about Martin and Claus’ failures in the MCP [and BTW I regularly whine about my own lack of investing smarts, nicely exemplified by my much-regretted decision to follow Martin's advice and divest at the recent market bottom; and actually I do expect both Martin and Claus to be better at this game than I an--otherwise why would I fork over $1400 to get their advice?], I’ll continue the whine by pointing out that Claus did rather precisely predict the current bear market rally–to within less than 2 days! Very impressive. What is less impressive is Claus’ lack of interest in playing that rally, or in playing the rally in China that seems at least partly disconnected from the Wall St. rally. I would (selfishly) love to see another serious Wall St decline, as I would then recover some of my losses in Weiss-recommended inverse ETFs and have another chance to buy companies for “pennies on the dollar” (a Martin phrase), as I stupidly missed the recent chance to do just that.
Re what appeared to be blog censorship: to their credit, they have substantially loosened up and are allowing comments which question the wisdom of the current investments. Those comments are now outnumbering the sycophantic comments.
Review by capcdoc, May 23, 2009
Another charter subscriber here. I have also been disappointed in the total miss of the recent 30% run-up in the market. Our short positions are still under water, the stock picks are barely positive (finally), and now they are recommending another short ETF. In the past I jumped on the recos (and paid the price), this time I will wait to get a hint on the the market direction before grabbing this short. If things don’t rapidly improve in next 2 weeks, I will bail.
Review by Sam, May 27, 2009
First off, I would like to say Martin is a genius for calling the crash way before it happened. However, the new MCP that started in March 2009 was misleading and has cost me a lot of money for the following reasons:
1) One of his first war-room/free 1 hour marketing webinars (11 laws to bear market trading) was like screaming fire in a crowded theater when there was no fire. His first war room meetings took place when the Dow and S&P were at the bottom (around beginning of March). This scared me so much, I sold all of my longs.
2) Afterwards, I started buying his reco’s and each one went down after my purchase (2 days before him). However, MCP is losing less because he waits 2 days while it is lower. All of the ETF picks are in the red (some double digits).
3) During the initial 2 webinars, the advertisement said they had 66 of 68 winners in this portfolio with the average return being double digit. Not sure if these are actual or backtested results. Backtested results are tweaked and look great but than once applied in theory, the methodology blows up and everyone quiet. People on the blog keep asking but no answer. Maybe he did if he was short from August to March but doubt it. This is what should have told me to stay away. How can you be 66 winners out of 68 trades and now be 2 for 6 in the actual portfolio (this is unrealized losses so far)???
4) MCP missed the 35% to the upside. Originally, he said he was an opportunistic trader but missed this run??? How did that happen??
5) I believe MCP is a bear market trading strategy. I can’t believe the long term outlook is going to be down for the longer term. There are no targets on exit strategy.
6) Usually subscriptions that charge this price should introduce winners at some point. This was like Crisis ETF Trader by Martin Weiss. A lot of hype and I took a bath on that one as well. This was the 2nd high priced MOM service that I have paid for and have taken a bath on it.
All in all, Martin has great call on the overall market but I believe he is just one big marketing machine. The MCP subscription does not take into consideration when people started investing. He starts off saying sell everything now the next shoe is dropping. That comment was said at the end of February. Now it is the end of May and the market is up huge. Not helpful to scare people after they already lost 50%. Some of us could have recouped our losses. The only way to cover my losses in the portfolio is to get my subscription money back before the 90 days expires. Also, in his initial advertisement, he said this service would be locked out for a long time. Well I guess a long time was a month and a half. That tells me so many people dropped out that he had to reopen it again and recover some of the $1M he put in the portfolio. Hope this was useful.
Review by Patrick, May 28, 2009
I too am a charter member of the M-D C P. Unlike most of the people commenting above I’m not ready to pronounce judgement after only 2 short months. I do believe that Claus makes educated, well thought out recommendations and backs up his selections with great analysis and support. If your idea of a market trend is 1 week, 1 month or 90 days then this service isn’t for you. It was never touted as a trend trading program (whether day or swing) but an investment program based on fundamental research and the macro economy. If you disagree with Martin and Claus then get a refund and go follow the talking heads on CNBC and get whip-sawed 5 days a week. Just don’t come back crying when the bottom falls out and you lose your a.ss.ets. For me, I’ll stick with the program a full year and then decide whether to renew or not. I’m satisfied that when Claus sees the fundamentals of the economy recovering he will switch gears and suggest long positions in the appropriate companies, industries, currencies, commodities, etc. Most people these days have the attention span of a 30 second commercial and the investment track record to prove it. Claus won’t ever pick the exact bottom or the exact top but over the long run I think I’ll be able to sleep better at night knowing I’ve got a professional reading the tea leaves of the economy for me and that my money has been properly diversified and protected. Just my 2 cents.
Review by Koko LaRue, June 8, 2009
I subscribed on March 16′th 2009 and am currently still a member but am re-evaluating my subscription as I have 10 more days remaining to qualify for my 100% refund.
Martin is very intelligent and perhaps a macro economic genius. He’s excellent at informing the subscriber in layman’s language what’s happening to and with the economy and what the probable economic and market scenarios will be as a result of actions taken by the government and others. That said he peddles his goods (stock market subscription services) in a Chicken Little ‘The sky is falling’ manner. Each new email bringing even worse news than the last with the usual need for one of Weiss’ services to protect your money. The truth being that in the second largest bull rally in US history since the 50% bull run of the early 1930’s the MDCP is nothing but a sea of red ink. My portfolio of Claus Vogt’s picks is down over 17% not counting the cash position which he does so it makes his portfolio performance appear significantly better than it is. Even the portfolio’s long positions are all down….. despite the fact that some major market indicies are up nearly 40% in 12 weeks! This kind of performance on Wall Street would lead to the portfolio manager being escorted from the building by security guards.
Their response is always dismissive of the questioner and is that they aren’t a timing service. However I say “If it looks like a duck, quacks like a duck and walks like a duck…… well by golly it’s a duck! In my way of thinking unless you’re systematically investing equal amounts of money at and in equal time frames in both good and bad markets, you’re trying to time the market. Timing of equity purchases at the MDCP has to this point been nothing short of appalling to date. However to be fair this could change, seems Martin Weiss has come up with a new market timing scheme…. for a little extra money of course. Where was this market timing for profits scheme when the MDCP was sinking faster than the Titanic? Like a broken clock that’s right at least twice a day this portfolio is still waiting for its first time to be right. I sold almost every stock I had, at a loss, at Martin’s behest only to watch them rise to levels higher than I had originally paid for them. Let me tell you the truth…. that hurts, that really hurts to see. How does anyone loose nearly 18% in a market that’s up 160% on an annualized basis? I didn’t think such a thing was possible, but folks it’s possible here at the MDCP (at least to this point of almost three months after inception). Martin’s biggest problem is he’s like a kid who knows he’s going to Disney World someday but wants to go today, so badly indeed he can taste it. His desire to be right skews data and accepts only information that confirms his views and where balancing information appears to be tossed aside. The site’s blog was never really participated in by either Claus or Martin in the beginning but the blog’s sentiment had turned so negative by the end of May that Claus seems to have felt compelled to address concerns that had been raised by members for months that they had failed to respond to.
Review by Damien, June 8, 2009
Original member still with the program for now. I paid for lobster and got bottom feeding suction eel. Martin’s emails are like reading a horror story in National Enquirer. The only thing missing are the aliens. I can’t afford one of those family size underground nuclear bunkers he almost infers we’ll eventually need when society breaks down and the banks all close down with our money inside. You know, they’re called banking holidays. I don’t think I’ll be with them past Thursday. Not a single pick making money, not a one. 9 picks /9 losers and a 38% market gain. I didn’t realize that contrary meant loose money to these people.
Review by Capcdoc, June 8, 2009
Finally gave up on this one last week. All the picks are negative now except for the Treasuries! Yikes, how do you miss a 3 MONTH trending up market? The inverse ETFs are of course all down big, took a bath when I dumped them. As mentioned above, no specific price targets or stop loss levels have been provided, so the hits just keep coming. Claus is quite educated & very interesting, but the markets have their own logic and they have been almost 100% opposite of his vision.
Review by Tom, June 8, 2009
This service wins the award for losing the most amount of money in the shortest time in strongest bull market in over 70 years. All this in under three months, thank you Martin and Claus. Edward Scissorhands would have done less damage to my money than the MCP did. If red is your favorite color than this service is right up you alley cause that’s all you’ll see for as far as you can see.
Review by John H., June 9, 2009
I am an MDCP subscriber and like the others that have posted here have incurred losses. After initially investing in the first 5 recos, I have not invested in the last 3.
While I can accept that no one can get everything right almost all have gone south at least at this point in time. Because of the long term strategy MDCP failed to take advantage of bear rally which if done would have helped mitigate the other losses and probably would have not caused such a reaction by many. Note I am not stating that he is wrong in his view of what will happen in the long term, but I don’t believe the portfolio was managed in the best way possible. It seems he and Claus were convinced that the downturn was imminent and did not have a contingency plan.
The thing that I find very unacceptable though is the selective omission of blog responses that have been critical of what is happening. I have had at least 5 of my blog entries not posted. IMO, they were not written in an offensive manner, did not contain any offensive language, name calling or any other such things that blog entries often contain. However, there were some tough and challenging questions that in my opinion deserved answers.
I have now taken to posting under a pseudo id and fake email address. At least my entries are now indicated as “awaiting moderation” as opposed to being deleted upon entry indicating that my name/email address have be flagged. We’ll see if they get posted as the content hasn’t changed from my original entries.
That really rots especially since Martin claims to want to hear comments that are “critical” of the service.
Review by Kevin, June 9, 2009
Don’t know what to say as others above have nailed it with their reviews. How do you miss the biggest rally in 70 years!!!! Martin scares the heck out of you in the webinar and war rooms about the sky is falling at Dow 7,000 and to SELL SELL SELL!!!! Claus tells you how the world is coming to an end and that he is not concerned about short term blips (bear market bounces) in the market and to trust his approach and strategy. So far, all of my inverse funds are in the red big time. What is the strategy, I have no stop losses, just his mental ones. I AM NOT A MIND READER, WHAT ARE THEY!!!!
They call it a contrarian portfolio but he bought inverse funds after the largest drop in the market already happened. He bought gold after 6 year bull market and reaching new highs. He just bought FDO and AAN after they just hit their 52 week high. WHAT IS CONTRARIAN ABOUT THAT??? Usually contrarian’s buy out of favor sectors before they rebound not after they had a huge run and people are selling. That is a losing strategy. So far, the portfolio is 20% lower than the S&P and 40% since he scared me at S&P 670 saying to sell before the index hits 500.
Plus one of the members above brings up a great point, in his initial war room he said he was 66 out of 68 wins (incredible if it were true). Now when we join he is 1 for 9 and that one is breakeven at best. I think those were backtested results and a bunch of marketing hype. A couple of members have asked the question but no response for Martin and/or Claus.
All I can say is Martin is a marketing machine. I have lost 20X the subscription price by cashing out of the market and buying inverse funds. This subscription couldn’t have came at a worse time. To add insult to injury, Martin is having a 1 hour session on how to profit on short term market swings next week for free because his members on the blog asked for it. WHAT ABOUT THE PAYING MEMBERS THAT PAID $2K TO LOSE A BUNCH OF MONEY IN MCP!!! WHAT ABOUT MAKING A PROFIT FOR US!!! That is just another marketing ploy for another big subscription service with a hefty fee. His goal was to help preserve capital (his motto and rule #1 in a bear market). Well I got news for you, you did more harm to my portfolio than I did to my own all last year. I WOULD NOT RECOMMEND THIS SERVICE AS I THINK IT WAS FALSE ADVERTISMENT AND PLAYED ON PEOPLES EMOTIONS. There is another war room on Thursday which I will attend and then cancel my subscription before the 90 days is up for a full refund. If he says the sky is still falling, I am going to do the opposite of his suggestions!! By the way, for those who think this is an educational experience, just read the newspaper and watch CNBC for free!
Review by Diane, June 9, 2009
Just look at my satisfaction reviews for this service and you’ll know exacly what my experience and feelings have been and are. Even from Germany almost everybody, except for Claus, realized that we had a serious bull market upswing in a bear market. Not after one month, not after two months, not even after three months did we participate in the upswing. I’d like to see Claus’s own personal portfolio compared to this Nightmare From Hell portfolio I currently own thanks to the MD-CP.
Review by Barry, June 10, 2009
Well from what I hear from other members and see for myself the censorship of the MCP has started again. This sort of thing is NEVER good for either side. Has Kim Jung IL taken over from Claus?
Review by j.t., June 11, 2009
I was eager to get into MDCP so as to preserve capital, trade the trend DOWN (Claus and Martin were mistaken here as trend headed UP the week before service began)and buy “down-trodden companies for pennies on the dollar” at the bottom. That was the strategy at the outset and I was all for it. But Claus and Martin, keeping their eyes straight ahead on the collapse to come, hugging their charts and statistics that supported the collapse theory, ignored the reality of the rally. I believe in the collapse theory too but all Claus’ choices, especially the inverse ETFs, are weird for a contrarian portfolio in an up-trending market. I expected, since we were told we would trade the trends, that we would trade this rally, but we didn’t. Does this constitute false advertising? I fail to see the value in spending $1500 for market analysis that may come true “any day now” when much of it is available for free in the Money and Markets emails and in Martin’s $99 Safe Money Report. Another thing, Martin has been recommending inverse ETFs in SMR for months, and ALL of them have declined substantially in value so I’m mystified as to why he’d stick to this failed policy. Doesn’t experience teach him anything? I didn’t buy Claus’later recommendations because I was beginning to doubt his market prowess, so I haven’t lost very much to date, but I intend to exit next week anyway and get a refund. Too bad this didn’t work out. Sincerely yours, Disgruntled
Review by Barry, June 12, 2009
Yet another day where the 8 positions, not counting cash, are down again. 8 for 8 down. However Claus has mental stops! I must have been mental for subscribing to this service. I’ll be calling them on Monday to request my refund. We now have 3 positions down double digits, one that was only recommended less than 10 days ago. The market is up 40% and rising and the portfolio’s performance is worsening. Even the long selections are losing money. This outfit wouldn’t last more than one week at Goldman Sacks or even AIG for that matter.
Review by Lou, June 12, 2009
What a complete waste of money to be down on every single pick. Just had a war room and said he would buy the same exact portfolio today. Later he says that if the S&P holds above 961, he would have us sell some of our inverse ETFs. How does that work, we can’t do both. He just got done watching the market go up 40% and now he is think about selling our inverse funds? Great call there Claus, your timing is horrible. Also the only thing contrarian about this portfolio is they bet against the government and all of their efforts. I remember a rule “don’t fight the Fed”. Maybe MAM should go back to old basics. Avoid this service if you want to preserve your wealth!!!!
Review by dan, June 12, 2009
The members above describe it best, this is not worth the money. Also Safe Money is another subscription which I am in the hole with all of its inverse ETF’s as well. They may be right from a macro prespective but they don’t know how and when to execute trades and make money. You don’t need to pay $1,500 to lose money, I can do that on my own. Actually, I would have won huge by not joining.
Review by j.t., June 13, 2009
Martin sent an email yesterday saying the 100% full refund period is extended an additional 30 days … a smart business move on his part as this will halt the stampede for the exit that was staring him in the face. They sure are confident the sky will fall so I’m staying to watch them prove it. Buy any more of their hot recommendations? Not me. Anyway, I don’t need my $1500 this very minute and I’m pretty sure Weiss Inc. is not going bankrupt before the refund period is up. Forgot to rate the service on previous post. Don’t want my rating to fall into the positive category so I wont give 5 stars for ‘educational value’ of their gloomy prognosis … brainwashing is more like it. Consistent? You bet. In both message and losing picks.
Review by Koko LaRue, June 14, 2009
As for the 30 day additional 100% money back guarantee I’ll say if it’s anything like the first 90 days performance I don’t know if I can afford to sustain another thirty days of losses on top of the current portfolio losses PLUS the loss of the MDCP’s $2500 2-year subscription fee PLUS the massive losses I realized on the stocks I sold at Martin’s behest in mid March of this year. Those stocks he had me sell are all higher than when I initially purchased them.
Review by jonny, June 15, 2009
Hi!
I cancelled my subscription 2 weeks ago! It’s a waste of time- NOT cause they don’t earn money! It’s because there’s no strategy behind! You buy inverse ETFs which ONLY are for short term trading, then buy consumer stocks and then you’ve mental stops!!?? I think Martin ignores anything except his doomed macro view…It’s not contrarian, it’s idiot….
Review by j.t., June 16, 2009
Maybe this comment belongs on the MDCP Forum? Anyway…
MDCP has a blog … one of the benefits of membership as well as a selling point in their solitation literature. But the blog is censored!! My posts are not getting onto the board…bummer. Numerous complaints about censorship incidents are posted. Why does the censor post complaints about being censored but not the censored post that led to the complaint? But now that 4 of my posts were dumped and one was edited…the nerve !!…I have proof. Then, there are so many (80% maybe) angry posts about the portfolio’s poor performance…why aren’t these being censored? All murky and very confusing. Of course, there wouldn’t be much of a blog left if the negative posts were dumped. Plus I have to assume there are plenty more in this censored boat that we haven’t heard from. How can we members wrest control of our blog out of the authoritarian fist of Weiss and his control squad? Any ideas? Signed, More Disgruntled Than Ever
Review by Koko LaRue, June 16, 2009
*********** I have decided to quit this service.************ The confirmation email I received when I joined says cancellations must be in writing. Has anyone here canceled their service to the MD-CP and did you need to do it in writing or will they let you do it over the phone? If a written notice to withdraw is need did they say an email or FAX was acceptable? Was anyone given a hard time by Weiss when they quit and did anyone have a problem getting their money back in a timely manner? Any problems anyone had please tell of your experience as I want to leave ASAP without any problems, just my refunded subscription money and the portfolio losses, that’s all I wish to leave with. Thanks kindly for any helpful info
Koko
Review by jonny, June 17, 2009
Hi Koko!
I left at the end of May/beginning of June! It took me 3 mails to get my refund! But I never got a confirmation from Weiss regarding my cancellation! That was a poor performance as well (not only the portfolio)!!! Just give an email notice via the MDCP email link…
Regards,
Jonny
Review by j.t., June 17, 2009
Read today’s blogs and it seems that not all subscribers are getting a 30-day trial period extension. Hold the phone!!There’s something fishy here. Just what is going on within the gold-plated walls of the Weiss machine?
Review by Capcdoc, June 17, 2009
If you want a refund, just CALL them. Support people are polite and efficient, no problems.
Review by Dave, June 18, 2009
Capcdoc is right–call them. I have talked to them twice, and the “in writing” cancellation req’t is gone. I was extended for 30d as well. I would suggest calling them to find out exactly when your cutoff date is–they are happy to tell you.
I will hang on thru the extra period just to see what moves Claus (the “Teutonic Titan”–thanks to the blogger who came up with that one) makes. It’s getting to be quite a comedy show. Poor guy. Well, we’ll love him if the market heads far enough south.
Oh–and the latest! Weiss et al are now claiming to have come up with a very special tool to improve the timing of stock purchases/sales (one assumes therefore that Claus has not been using it—perhaps he constitutes the Control Group in a Weiss testing protocol for the new tool?). There is no end to the Weiss marketing hype. This new tool will surely be a major breakthru, as no one else has ever been able to come up with such a tool (that works, anyway) in the history of the stock market. I expect to be significantly underwhelmed when it is unveiled.
Review by C. D., June 18, 2009
With some regret, I called in to cancel my membership earlier this week. The refund showed up on my credit card within a few days as promised. The Weiss Group people were cordial and professional.
Time will tell what the economic landscape looks like in six months, and whether the MDCP will have the last laugh. So the verdict really won’t be in until then.
My reasons for unsubscribing:
1) It was difficult to see myself writing a $3500 check on my present credit card statement, paying 2 years in advance.
2) Knowing that earlier memberships cost $2500 for the same period.
3) The marketing of a timing tool would cost more money - and why didn’t the MDCP make use of it?
4) The marketing of another membership club with another name - after the MDCP was promoted as the “most important decision” of your financial life.
5) Limitations of ETFs should have been explained.
6) Questions were invited. My questions on ETFs weren’t answered.
My regret is in missing the MDCP viewpoint and blog participants during the upcoming rollercoaster ride. At any rate, I posted a question on stockgumshoe at: http://bit.ly/4ojc8
Review by Mark, June 18, 2009
Today I have four of eight picks down between 10% to 18%. For those with poor math skills like Claus that’s 50% of the portfolio. Another pick is down 9.2% so I suspect that by the close tomorrow I’ll have 5 out of 8 in the red. Every long position is DOWN and every short is DOWN and I don’t mean down in a good way for the shorts because that implies a good thing, like I shorted XYZ at $10 and it’s down to $8 giving me a 20% profit. No, I mean ,the price on the shorts are now higher than the price we shorted them at. As a clarification I,m referring to inverse ETFs as shorts in this example. Martin or Claus if you read this I feel you have snukkerd me into Martin’s dream to be his father. Martin this is not 1929 but 2009 .and Martin Weiss you are not J. Irving Weiss. I don’t say this to be mean or cruel but this 1930s plan doesn’t seem to be working in the present.I can not afford to loose any more money. I turned to you for help and since joining I’ve lost nearly $38,779.02 in twelve weeks of membership. I’m 94 years old and I don’t think I can get a job because of the recission. When do you think I will be able to make my investment back. I remember the Great Depression like it was yesterday and I remember it took people 10 years to get back their money.
Review by j.t., June 18, 2009
CD,
4) The marketing of another membership club with another name.
What’s this? Didn’t receive my special email invitation so I’m in the dark. Can’t find anything on his website. Enlighten me, please. BTW, we blog participants will miss you too. Hope they miss me when I’m gone.
Review by C. D., June 18, 2009
j.t. ~~ correction ~~
4) The marketing of [the Weiss Wealth Event] - after the MDCP was promoted as the “most important decision” of your financial life.
There was a webinar, The Weiss All Weather Investing Guide, and Weiss Capital Management, Inc. referenced on this page:
http://www.moneyandmarkets.com/dont-buy-the-wall-street-spin-more-financial-storms-on-the-horizon-34214
Review by j.t., June 18, 2009
CD,
Thanks. Missed that little sponsor window and the ‘click here for replay’ button. Click the button and open Pandora’s box? No thanks. Seems this page is becoming a second home for us MDCP-ers. Soooo glad to be blogging without a censor slapping my wrist.
Review by Frank, June 19, 2009
The to-be-announced “Tool”
I think I have figured out the both the origin of this tool and how it got to be offered by Weiss Research. I attempt to get the text below posted on the MDCP blog site but it got cut by the moderator. I am believe that there is a high probability that I am correct otherwise why would it have been cut? See below.
As I mentioned in a previous post Larry Edelson mentioned about 6 economic cycle models developed over the years by various people, one of which was Martin Armstrong. It seems that Mr. Armstrong is now in jail, accused of various “crimes”. It seems that he has been incarcerated for 7 years for contempt of court without ever having been officially charged or have gone to court. I’m not sure if he is still in jail because of that charge or for a different one as there were several “charges” against him. While in jail he was permitted to type (not electronically) one article which is dated April 9th, 2009 which is a must read.
The document is entitled “Looking Behind the Curtain 4/09/09″ and the link to the article is:
http://www.scribd.com/doc/14227076/Looking-Behind-the-Curtain4909?from_email_04_friend_send=1
If you don’t believe in conspiracy theories or that the financial markets are somehow being manipulated and controlled then you need to read this document.
Anyway, it seems that Mr. Armstrong developed a computer model and had or has refused to turn over the source code to the U.S Attorney, which appears to be at least part of the contempt charges against him. So, what does all of this have to do with Martin Weiss. We’ll it seems that Martin Weiss (I’m not sure whether this is Dr. Martin Weiss or his father as I don’t know his father’s first name and the title “Dr.” never appeared in the article) “had offered to rent Princeton Economic Institute (Mr. Armstrong’s company) to keep its staff in tact and the publication and forecasting operating”.
Alan Cohen, (I’m uncertain what organization he was working for at this time but later he became an Executive VP in Goldman Sachs, a company whose name is scatter throughout this document and not in a good light) was appointed the receiver of Princeton Economics. Cohen plead Princeton Economics guilty of some trumped up charges without allowing any defense or counsel. Cohen then seized evidence that was gathered by Mr. Anderson to be used as a defense against the charges being brought upon him by National Republic Bank. Cohen’s counsel then insisted that the source code be turned over in order to protect Martin Weiss from being in a position of being black mailed by Anderson. I deduce from this that Martin Weiss now had access to the computer model developed by Anderson albeit without the source code and that Cohen was attempting to get it for his own purposes and using the guise of protecting Martin Weiss as an excuse to do so.
He further states, “Never would the Government ever admit that they were holding me publicly until they forced me to turn over the model to them. I also believe that Alan Cohen gave every stitch of programming materials he could uncover to Goldman Sachs. Of course, neither would ever admit to that one. Mr. Weiss made it clear, they did not require the source code, and that a compiled version of the model had been running well for years and did not require routine repairs.”. Based on that last statement and Larry Edelson’s statement that “I’ve run extremely complex mathematical models and developed computer programs …” I would be extremely surprised if Mr. Anderson’s computer model and at least the analytical part of the tool are one are not one and the same.
Mr. Anderson’s document should be read in its entirety to completely understand what might be going on in this market today, how it came about, who is involved, and to get the full meaning of what I wrote because it is out of context. Should only half of what Mr. Anderson wrote in his document be true, it is unforgivable what has and is being done to him by our government. Martin Weiss should be proud that he is able to preserve at least some of the work of this man that is obviously an economic genius. I’m sure there is a lot more to this story and it certainly would be intriguing to know more. If you want additional information on Mr. Anderson do a search on “Armstrong Cycle of Economic Confidence” as there is a lot of information available.
Review by Frank, June 19, 2009
j.t.
YOU are correct that this is becoming the second blogging site for the MDCP because of the censorship going on. I wrote to the support person and told him that unless they stopped the censorship that I would be posting the things that were cut somewhere else and in fact told him that was going on already. The support supervisor told me that my comments were forwarded up-the-line but that he didn’t think that anything would change. He also stated that Claus and his term was doing the moderation.
I think that we, as a group, should somehow get more of the people that are blogging on the MDCP site over here too and then let Weiss Inc know in no uncertain terms that this is not in his control and if he doesn’t want this to continue they need to stop censoring the MDCP blog. I don’t like the idea of airing the dirty laundry to the outside world however, I dislike the censorship more.
Review by The Greek, June 19, 2009
j.t.
None of my post contained fowl or derogatory language to or about any one, and yet 5 of my last 8 were not posted. It was strictly content.
This is what I did to try to get this resolved. The “Contact us” will allow you to compose a letter that goes to the support people. I specifically noted that it states that someone will get back to you which I quoted directly. I sent them an email on one other occasion and no one got back to me.
This time the message was handled by a supervisor and he did write back and even gave me his phone number. He informed me that he had nothing to do with the moderation and did not even see the posts, and also stated that Claus and his team handled that. He did state that he would forward my email up the chain (whatever hat means) but also said that he doubt that any policy related to the moderation would not change.
Not finding that response acceptable to me, I did send him another message outlining what my concerns were about the censorship and what people were starting to do. I did not receive a response and really didn’t expect one because of the way I worded it.
I later had another idea as this has been bothering me and sent him the message below. I think if they get enough of these it will cause them to rethink their policy. If you decide to sent one please change the enough of wording so that it doesn’t appear as a cut and paste as a more personalized message would be more effective. IMO, they would not want this happening and certainly do want information to get outside of MDCP (Actually nor do I). It’s also probably best that we don’t give them any information that will allow them to get to this sight easily.
Agent:
Please forward this to your supervisor.
Supervisor:
I think that you would do a service to Weiss Inc. if you past this email up the chain of command.
To whom it may concern:
An increasing large number of MDCP members have now taken to blogging about MDCP issues on an alternative site due to the consistent and incessant censoring by the MDCP moderators by whatever rules they choose and refuse to make known. The MDCP is not a blog where people are prone to cursing, swearing , or are otherwise rude to other members or to Weiss folks. We are mature adults, many are highly educated professionals and we don’t like doing this, but we don’t like being censored a lot more. Weiss Research leadership needs to realize that it can not (and should not) attempt to control the opinions, statements, or remarks of its MDCP membership through censorship. Governments with far more capabilities and influence then Weiss Inc has have tried and failed. It is not in your best interest to having this going on “behind your back” and visible to others outside of MDCP however, you give us little choice. If you will stop censoring we will stop blogging outside of the MDCP site.
Please don’t take this as a threat or any such thing by me personally or others, but as information. Although those that have chosen to leave the MDCP after the trial may continue to use the site, those of us that will stay in it will have no reason to do so if you stop the censorship. I strongly urge to reconsider your censorship policy.
I have no doubt that we all consider the success of MDCP our success too otherwise we would not have invested and I don’t think any of are self-destructive.
Review by j.t., June 19, 2009
A blog on yonder MDCP Forum page alerted me to some shady shenanigans in Martin’s past. This aroused the bloodhound in me so I ran to google. OK, I wouldn’t want anybody looking under my petticoats either, but this is business related. Cease & Desist Order - U.S.Govt & SEC vs Martin and Lawrence Edelson in 2006. http://www.sec.gov/litigation/admin/2006/ia-2525.pdf
Review by j.t., June 19, 2009
The Greek,
We know that Martin knows about this site and that’s why we use aliases over here. I’ve sent emails to issues@whatever and been ignored…boy does that hurt! I’ll use the ‘contact us’ route next. I note a contradiction in your post. First you say “It’s also probably best that we don’t give them any information that will allow them to get to this sight easily.” and then you say “An increasing large number of MDCP members have now taken to blogging about MDCP issues on an alternative site”. Holy smokes!! Oh well. The cat was bound to get out of the bag no matter how crafty we try to be. The worst that can happen is they give us our money back, a little sooner than we planned on.
Review by The Greek, June 19, 2009
j.t.
Nice work. Think you might be able to get that link posted on the MDCP blog (yeah, right). I was particularly interested in Paragraphs 27-30. Paragraph 28-30 essentially reaffirm that he will honor Paragraph 27 and that the Commission has taken that into consideration as part of this “proceeding”.
Paragraph 27 is stated below, some of which I seem to recall him mentioning previously. Now I can see why the MDCP is structured the way it is and why they have disclosed Claus’ previous performance.
This, the tool, and maybe some other things that people have not been able to post that we are unaware of are the real reason for the censorship. All the more reason why we need to get the censorship removed or somehow get more people over here.
I got a 30-day extension too so I need to decided whether or not to continue with this venture within the next 25 or so days. In spite of all the things going on I believe their right in their projections of what is going to happen. I just need to determine whether or not they can deliver on their “promises” if things go they way they anticipate.
SEC Proceeding text below:
Weiss Research’s Remedial Efforts
27. Weiss Research has taken the following voluntary remedial actions:
A. Ceased facilitating auto-trading for all subscribers and undertakes not to resume facilitating auto-trading unless it registers as an investment adviser with the Commission, or, if appropriate, a state securities regulator; and
B. Made available to current and potential subscribers the performance histories for each premium service; and
C. Established an internal compliance department to review marketing materials and procedures; and
D. Established internal procedures for monitoring the accuracy and performance of trading recommendations.
Review by j.t., June 19, 2009
Frank,
Wow! And you’re surprised the censor cut this? I have a real hard time following these kinds of stories…one long tangled ball of taffy…but I’ll give it a try…tomorrow.
Review by j.t., June 19, 2009
The Greek,
Since the SEC socked him in the nose there’s been an improvement in the solicitation literature. Now there are more conditional words such as ‘if’
‘could’ ‘might’ ”but’ ‘not always’ etc and yet he still manages to reel em in. You say they’ve disclosed Claus previous performance, but have they? One blogger has asked 10 times already if Claus 66 of 68 bulls eyes were back tested (not sure what that is but it sounds suspicious) and he’s still waiting for an answer. Or maybe not. Depends on whether he got a 30-day extension. Another one of the taboo subjects we can’t blog about.
Review by The Greek, June 19, 2009
j.t.
Sorry about the confusing way I wrote that entry. It was way past 2 AM when I wrote it, was operating on 4 hours sleep, and I hadn’t had my milk and cookies yet (the most limiting factor in my intellectual level at that time). If you think my entry was confusing wait until you read the article. After several readings I still haven’t made complete sense of it and it was written by Anderson who lived it.
Review by The Greek, June 19, 2009
j.t.
He disclosed the results of Claus’ prior investing (when he was with a small bank in Germany) in one of the early MDCP marketing emails (to the extent that one calls that a disclosure)which might still be on the MDCP site. It included the number of investment made, the number of successes and failures (the 68 out of 68 trades), and the percentage lost or gained of each. All of this was supposedly done just prior to first collapse back in Oct. One can deduce from that he successfully timed the collapse, went short, and maybe pick up on some of early part the recovery, although I don’t think so.
FYI, back testing is a method of running ones stock purchase choices backwards against the historical stock data and getting gain/loss stats. Many e-brokers make this software available to registered users for testing their strategies.
Just curious, how do you know for sure that Martin knows of the site? I suspect you are correct as it is not had to find, but if so then there was nothing lost by my seemingly inconsistent message about giving out the site information (I meant the URL and not the fact that it exists and that people blog here).
Concerning using aliases, if Martin knows of this site I’m sure he can easily figure out what aliases belong to whom.
Review by j.t., June 20, 2009
Frank,
You say “I think that we, as a group, should somehow get more of the people that are blogging on the MDCP site over here too” Don’t worry. The malcontents will find their way over here. We did and nobody told us. Another thing I like about this site is our blogs are posted instantly while back home we have to wait for the censor. And when the censor goes home or to lunch or has to make a phone call the board shuts down. What worries me is that we’ve usurped this site and might get booted out. Then we’d be homeless.
Review by j.t., June 20, 2009
The Greek,
Now that you’ve cornered me I have to admit I don’t know for sure if Martin knows as he hasn’t spoken about this to me personally. But for someone as interested in safeguarding secrecy as Martin is… hence the censor…I assume that he keeps himself informed of what is being said about him and his empire. It may be one of the censors duties, in between dumping blogs, to go into cyberspace and ferret out dissenters. Don’t worry about your little slip of the pen…Martin doesn’t know where I live. And you’re right about the aliases. If we can figure them out so can Martin. Although we try to keep our masks on straight, our thumbprints are all over these blogs.
Review by j.t., June 20, 2009
Frank,
Still haven’t read the Anderson story…but midnight’s not here yet. Though I’ve got an inquiring mind, I’m not an investigative reporter so I was thinking the ball could be passed to the Forum sleuths…let them evaluate the story’s merits. Don’t want to step on your toes so I’ll leave that
decision to you. And this info absolutely belongs in the gumshoe archives. I further think we can discover just who and what this tool is without Anderson. Operation Tool Attack moves from barking to biting…or barking louder…next week.
Review by j.t., June 21, 2009
Got an email … sent Sunday! … from Weiss support (no jobs contraction here) saying he couldn’t do a thing but would pass my squawk up the line. Said he’d called (!) but I wasn’t home and invited me to call back and cry on his shoulder. Thanks but … why call him when he just told me he can’t do a thing.
Frank,
I read the Anderson report and … think it’s too nebulous to pursue. But! At your suggestion I googled and this link is what the Forum sleuths should evaluate. See you in the lion’s den on Monday.
http://www.contrahour.com/contrahour/2006/06/martin_armstron.html
Review by Dana, June 22, 2009
I have only stayed on because of the 30 day extension. So far, I have lost 10x the subscription price since I sold everything back in March since the sky was falling. I lost even more because I am in the MCP recos which are all down. This service is horrible. I could have thrown darts at the WSJ to pick my stocks and been up over the last 3 months. That I can do for free! This service is horrible and not worth spending any money on. I just looked at the blog and there are hardly any original members. I will probably cancel this week and hope they don’t give me a hard time. In the past, they never gave me a hard time for cancelling other subscriptions. However, since there is a stampede leaving, maybe they will change the rules. If they do, I will cancel my other subscriptions with them and move on.
Very upset member,
Daniel
Review by Finn, June 23, 2009
This has to be the most expensive and worst subscription I have signed up for to date. Usually, the portfolio has some winners. So far MCP is 0 for 9!!!! How can you pick this bad. I at least had some winners on my own and now I am paying someone to be down on ever single pick!!! I must be insane!! I could have had my dog paw the paper for a good pick. Now MAM is introducing “Mystery to solving the timing of the market”!!!! The only mystery for me is when am I going to make some money with this exepensive subscription. So far, I should have shorted everything he has done and I would be up 40%!!!! Beware, MAM is a marketing machine and the actual performance will cost you dearly. They have a lot of great info but they do no know how to use it for trading purposes.
Review by disgruntal, June 23, 2009
If you want to lose money like there is no tomorrow when everyone else is making some… subscribe to Safe Money or this service. The recommendations are horrible.
I got an extension as well and I am sticking around for that period just to see.
Like everyone else my comments were censored… the interesting thing is that in one of my censored comments, I said to Martin/Claus… you should give us the subscription free til we recup our money… and that was taken out but then we got an extension.. Looks like he took the cue
Review by rob, June 24, 2009
Yes, I got an extention as well but am going to dump it today. They are now showing a new product offering to MCP members who have lost a lot of money. Plus Claus is no where to be found. What is going on??? This is an expensive subscription, Claus is missing, no stop losses, a new product offering, and every position is in the red. The market is up 35%+ and we are down on all positions. Even the ones on June 1st are down close to 10%. This subscription is terrible and a complete waste of money. I am going to cancel before month-end because I can’t take it anymore.
Review by Bill, June 24, 2009
I don’t think I have ever received more inaccurate advice, or lost more money, in such a short time. Incredibly bad deal.
Review by James, June 25, 2009
Well, I cancelled this week because I was getting more aggravated that MCP has done the following:
No stop losses (except for the mental ones in Claus’ head – doesn’t help me any)
1) Consistently lose money (currently 0 for 9 wins);
2) Continually panic people into selling long positions;
3) Didn’t post all of my blogs and is now removing the ones posted in the last couple of days
4) Diverting attention by offering “Solving the Timing Mystery”??? It is the new fad and the back tested results are off the chart (3,000%)!!! That is like me saying I have the secret formula to pick the next MSFT, DELL or CSCO and I can get you the same returns those stocks produced from 1990 to 1999. This is a lot of fluff and marketing at its best. Just like the original MCP webinars when they were 66 for 68 wins! How do you have an almost perfect record and are now 0 for 9, (come on people- wake up)
5) Claus is nowhere to be found lately
6) Poor execution and timing of trades (most trades are approaching or exceeding 10% losses, even the ones given on June 1)
7) No real answers
9) Everything is a “LANDMARK” event – I have followed 3 other landmark events by them and have lost a ton of money. MAM cannot not time the market at all. They are only good for research.
10) The last thing that really aggravated me was to see members with all of their life savings (401K, brokerage account, etc..) banking on Claus saying they hope he can deliver otherwise they can get wiped out. These members are like sheep being led to the slaughter house. They are so thankful for the information that they accept being down on all 9 positions. WAKE UP PEOPLE!!!!! Common sense needs to kick in or you will be homeless. These types of investors don’t belong on the site and were sucked in by the hype.
MAM is a first class marketing machine and cannot deliver. I have joined 4 premium subscriptions and have taken a bath on all of them. New potential members should beware. The only good thing about MAM is the pro-rated money back guarantees and their friendly customer service (which I rated a 5).
Good luck and hope this helps.
Review by Dave, June 30, 2009
Although the subscription was horrible and completely missed every major market move in the last 4 months (0 for 9). I cancelled before the additional 30 day trial was done and received a prompt refund within 3 business days. They were no hassle. I would have kept the subscription for the next 3 weeks but it was messing me up with how negative their view was on the market. I think Claus and Martin are bear market traders.
Review by James, June 30, 2009
Well, solving the “Solving the Timing Mystery” has been solved. It is another high priced subscription that shows backtested results. They show huge wins (of course - otherwise, why would you pay for a subscription). The marketing seems to be the same when I purchased MCP (huge gains with not much detail behind it). I can also look back at a chart and draw lines and get good conclusions out of them as well. This does not require any skill be a revisionist (it is the “what of, could scenario”). I guess Claus used it for his June picks and they were all down 5 to 10%. Not to encouraging return for 30 days. I don’t think you can actually predict stocks based on cycles (commodities..maybe). I wonder what other members think.
Review by Mark, June 30, 2009
Martin Weiss, HOW DARE YOU! $3,303.00 SAVINGS ON A NEW $5500.00 SERVICE! WHAT BIG BRASS BALLS YOU HAVE. Every position is down, your trying to stem the near mass exodus of unsatisfied investors from the MDCP’s and its abysmal track record. At times it seems to me that you care about your client’s money as much as Bernard Madoff did. I’ve contacted the SEC and the Florida Attorney General’s office. I have furnished a copy of the 66 of 68 (back-tested I’m sure) marketing video as well as other materials requested of me. I just received my money back and now I will move on. Good luck to those unfortunates souls whose life and investment decisions are guided by fear. Weiss uses fear as its secret marketing agreement I believe. You read his material and you decide.
Review by James, June 30, 2009
Mark,
I agree 100%. I am glad you are turning this over to the SEC. 66 out of 68 wins was BS. Also, they are hyping up this one by showing they can turn $10K in hundreds of thousands (this is like the 66 out of 68 wins - not likely). PEOPLE, when you back test, you can make the theory fit a chart every single time and have a 100% average… that is easy because you are looking at historical data. There is no way you can apply this on a prospective basis and hit a 36x return. No one has done that!!! That is like me saying that I got the secret formula to the next Dell, MSFT or CSCO during the bull runs. WAKE UP!!! Plus I just re-listened to the video and they said they have data going back thousands of years???? What data goes back that long? The markets have only been around the last hundred years or so. That has to be one of the dumbest comments I have ever heard and members believe this garbage. Like I said above, members that believe this story 100% are sheep going to the slaughter house. WAKE UP ALREADY. I noticed Claus was no where to be found and they had to use Larry Edelson for credibility. I think he is the only one left with credibility. I hope that doesn’t go down the tubes for you Larry. I don’t see Claus or Mike Larson anymore on these videos.
Mark - thanks for taking this info to the SEC and state attorney. This type of marketing hype is BS. They never show as if they lose money in these hyped up marketing events. But once they apply the theory like MCP, they loss 100% of the time. What happened to Claus and being the ultimate investor being ahead of the curve??? Now he needs to use cycle thoery to help him. If he really went 66 for 68, he wouldn’t need someones help that soon. Plus what is his strategy, I can’t tell anymore. He is definetly not a contrarian just a poor market timer.
Potential members BEWARE!!!!!!
Review by Portfolio Man, July 1, 2009
I to cancelled and thank you Mark for taking the initiative to do this for all the members that suffered.
Martin… you are a marketing machine with a lot of data but cannot execute. I noticed that the last 3 blogs on MCP was removed. Claus used this Mystery product for both AAN and FDO and they are down close to 10% but the video for the new service says it has 2% stop losses. Maybe they need to teach Claus how to put in stop orders since he keeps them in his head (”mental stops”). I am not a mind reader and would have like to known about them.
Members of MAM and MCP - I can’t believe the people thanking Martin and MAM for this new Mystery product for $1,800. Are you crazy or just stupid. This cycle theory works great on historical data and to say they have thousands of years worth of data is no true. Even my wife last night who knows nothing about the stock market heard that one comment about having a thousand years worth of data and said that doesn’t even sound right and it doesn’t. Plus they only showed their wins (invest $10K and get back $350K, invest $10K and get back $168K). That is not realistic to time the market that well and get back a 36x return. Remember the old saying “if it is to good to be true, it is”. This is just marketing gimmicks just like they did for MCP and ETF Crisis Trader and both of them are losers as well.
As for cycle analysis, that has been around for years but no one heard about it until it becomes the flavor of the day. It is just like the “Black Swan”. You didn’t hear about the book or the person until last year. I invested for 15 years before that and never heard of the book. But the once in a lifetime event happens and that is all you hear about. Than came the Elliott Wave Theory and others. You always hear about what works afterwards and then you are the last one to the ponzi scheme and/or pyramid scheme and you get left holding the bag of rocks. Don’t be fooled and use some common sense. Like MCP, anyone that goes from 66 to 68 wins to 0 for 9 doesn’t make sense… move on and save your hard earned money.
Good luck and hope this helps
Review by j.t., July 1, 2009
The door to the MDCP blog board has been slammed shut on me… the censor is not even editing my posts anymore…just sending them into deepest, darkest outer space. Any connection between the introduction of Martin’s cycles timing service or tool or whatever this new and improved product is (special discounted price of $1800 that expired midnight yesterday)and the fact that my posts, and maybe certain other members, have been given the heave-ho? However, since there’s time remaining on my 30-day extended refund period, I’m not leaving my ringside seat to the Weiss circus until then.
Review by Cris, July 1, 2009
July 1 and that’s right folks the MCP is down down down and sinking like the proverbial Titanic.Well not quit, even the Titanic didn’t sink this fast nor this deep. Today brought an email from Weiss telling me they will help me cycle my way to wealth. The cost of the cycle is around $1,600.00. Well got to go now, I’m off to Walmart where they just rolled back the cost of their cycles to under a hundred bucks.
Review by Portfolio Man, July 1, 2009
JT, I still have 2 positions left to wind down SEF and the gold ones. I would like to sell SEF but it never gains any ground and I actually like the gold plays. You are not going to sign up for the Mystery one…are you???
Review by NoSale, July 1, 2009
Perhaps this was a perfect example of why winning in the financial markets should never be attempted as a Group Sport!
That said, I absolutely love the newsletters from the Weiss Group - and their customer service is off-the-charts wonderful. They always seem to try REALLY hard to get it right.
Other folks associated with Weiss are quite adept at picking good trades - and what may be more important, not missing Golden Opportunities as the Million $$$ Contrarian Portfolio seriously did.
Mostly I just observed ( with horror!!! ) at the MDCP’s antics over time. Never placed a trade based on their reco’s…and thus suffered no loss from them. Truly sorry for all those who faithfully followed the MDCP’s downhill path.
Wouldn’t be surprised if the MDCP eventually turns positive - but to have missed the entire runup this Spring is unforgiveable.
Best of luck to the Weiss Group in general - they are a bunch of really good folk…and anyone can make mistakes.
Review by j.t., July 1, 2009
Blog update…there is now a lengthy legal document that posters must agree to before submitting post…agreeing that it’s OK for the censor to dump “inappropriate” posts. Click “I Agree”? Not me. I prefer to retain my rights rather than surrender them to the censor. Checked Martin’s blog…the same legal document is there too…seems I wasn’t singled out for special attention after all. Martin doesn’t know how to help us make money, but he does know how to protect his dignity…by muzzling guffaws. Signed, As disgruntled as it is possible to be on an otherwise fabulous day in Tinkertown, USA
Review by Portfolio Man, July 2, 2009
NoSale,
Glad you didn’t get hurt. But realize if you listened to Martin Weiss in February and March on these webinar and war-room hype, he was creating such a dire picture for the economy that he was even telling members to sell everything from your portfolio to your home to coin collection and so on. He scared the heck out of everyone that listened including me. He was an alarmist when the market fell for 9 straight weeks starting in early January 2009. No all of a sudden, you don’t hear that same level of panic. I think what Martin did was a tremendous dis-service and a crime and harmed a lot of people. That is why I am glad Mark turned this stuff over to the authorities. Martin needs to be accountable for his words and false advertisements using fear and hype to sell you new product offerings. He was preaching how the market was going to tank to Dow 5K now and you would be buying stocks like GE for pennies on the dollar. He was so far from the truth. Now he wants to offer a timing service to investors.. only a fool would buy that service for $2K.
Review by Kate, July 2, 2009
I agree with all the critical remarks made about Martin Weiss. Martin alarmed us that the DOW would reach 5,000, and told us to sell everything. To add further injury, he advised us to buy inverse ETFs and leverage inverse ETFs. I made a huge mistake taking his advice that I regret for life. I bought several leverage inverse ETFs positions. While the market was climbing +35%, Martin kept preaching the imminent collapse. All the while, in fear, I kept holding the inverse positions. He was right about the collapse; all my inverse positions collapsed. Many of my positions collapse over 70%. Martin did tremendous harm to people and he needs to be accountable.
Martin uses fear and hype to promote his Million Dollar Contrarian Portfolio and in other marketing. He’s more concerned about getting memberships and enriching himself.
Review by Kate, July 2, 2009
Here’s my rating. BEWARE OF MARTIN WEISS!!! He can collapse your life.
Review by flower_man, July 2, 2009
Censorship on private blogs?
What’s next Martin? Numbers tattooed on our arms? Pink triangles on members hands? Getting legal disclaimers in place at this stage of the game is akin to closing the barn doors after the horses have gotten out. At least you’re stimulating the economy with your ill timed purchases of and payments for legal fees.
Review by dogstar123, July 2, 2009
I agree with all the above posts. I also, bought into the doom and gloom that Dr. Weiss were e-mailing everyday before the initial signup. When the first picks were made, I suspected something was wrong. After spending 1600, the first pick was GLD. What a einstein pick that was. My 10 year old could of pick that one. (still down from March). Claus was sold to us from a global perspective. Of all the stock in the world to pick from, he picks Rent-a center and Dollar Store. you got to be kidding. He picks them off the 52 week high, very extended from their 50 day moving average. I cancel the next day and received a prompt refund.
How could one be so wrong so often. He buys gold stocks at the 52 week high and went down from there. My saving grace was not getting out of positions I already owned. The best I did was to break even from all the losers claus picked.
If I would have listened to him 100%, I would have invested the remaining money I had left in my 401K at 55% loss going into March then invested with MCP loss even more and wouls have sold all my winning stock. I would be spitting blood. Now he has the nerve to come up
Review by dogstar123, July 2, 2009
with another scheme about timing the market. He had always said, you can not time the market and invest for the long term, until Claus says his mental stops has been reach. Which I believe, you would have lost 100% of your money. This was the first time I had pay a fee for “sound advice from an expert”. I am going back to my 10 year old for advice. She just moves her fingers at the page and picks them. Sadly, I did not listen. She was up 32% since March.
Thank you all for this blog. i feel better
Review by carodox, July 3, 2009
I have subscribed to this service from the beginning and have lost money. True, it’s only been a few months, but this tells us that they have no better chance at entry points than we do. So why do we need them?
What really offends me is the that he pretends to offer a blog which is actually censored to include only those who congratulate him. He asks us what we think, only to turn it around and use it for marketing purposes to offer another premium service to a captive market. The lastest is just too blatant for words. Now he has new timing service out for short or medium term gains no doubt in response to the criticism that this portfolio has not been able to make money on a short term rally.
I had a great win with him when I bought SKF and SRS in Spring of 08. They both promptly lost 30% and I was disgruntled, but did nothing. In September 08, they both soared and my investment tripled. It made up for some other losses. So you can use these ETF’s longer term if you’re wiling to ride the bumps.
His offer for his book for FREE and then he raises the price on all his subscriptions is particularly noxious because it insults our intelligence.
What are we to make of this Dr. Goody-Righteous-Safety? He does have it partly right — let’s give him that — but predicting the market is another thing, especially when they are fighting those who make public opinion. It’s a losing battle. They have been surfing the wrong way waiting for a tsunami. They got one in fall 08 and may get another if a recovery doesn’t materialize. But anyone who follow him has to realize that you are insuring against catastrophe, not investing.
I’m sure Weiss and Claus would like to make scads of dough for us in order to get more $1500 subscriptions and create more subscription services…but look at his track record. I wish I had looked at it carefully before investing. That’s all you need to know.
Review by j.t., July 5, 2009
Hi one and all,
For those of us who have submitted our Review and Ratings but just can’t shut up about what’s happening Under The Big Top, I started a FORUM page for Weiss MDCP. Travis emailed me that the forum on oneguysinvestments went kaput and I should start a new one on stockgumshoe. So I did. Had a little, OK a lot, of trouble cut & pasting, but I finally got something up on the board. Meet you ‘over there’.
Review by Portfolio Man, July 6, 2009
The real problem with Martin and Claus is that they do not know how to trade based on the news and their research. They have a lot of good data but don’t know what to do with it. Hence, just panic everyone now!!! However, in his new product offering for $2K, you can time the market with some trends and waves. In that model, they show an up market this year. However, if you look at MAM today, Martin is saying the sky is falling again and to follow his safe money picks. MAKE UP YOUR MIND ALREADY!!! His latest natural resource play is down 13% from the beginning of June when he recommended it. I guess that is par for the course once again. He recommends and you lose 10% in the first month just like MCP. I think I am going to short all of their picks when recommended, I would be up huge. I don’t understand how his picks can be so bad and people on his blog keep thanking him. For what??? Do they like losing money or are they shorting everything he says??? Wish I knew.
Review by Portfolio Man, July 7, 2009
JT, what is the website for the forum?
Review by j.t., July 7, 2009
Portfolio Man,
Follow the yellow brick road:
>stockgumshoe.com
>click ‘Forum’…one of several buttons in top of home page
>2 search boxes appear…can click either but I use ’select forum’
>drop down menu appears…click ‘Newsletters’
Review by Dave, July 7, 2009
Re Solving the Timing Mystery, ugh. People bitched about the lousy timing in the MCP and kept mentioning Edelson’s better record, so Martin dutifully brings in Edelson and claims to NOW have the timing key. Great, except Edelson is calling for the market to RISE for another month or two (and then fall) while Martin is still screaming his head off about an imminent crash. The difference may be due to Martin’s not wanting (understandably) MCP subscribers to bail out while waiting for the end of the summer, so he has to keep up the bear fear-mongering even while his cohort is bullish. What a mess. Actually, even Claus now seems to say (latest blog) he thinks the market won’t be heading down immediately. If the MCP had been a much more reasonable $199 instead of $1400, I’d probably stay in it.
Review by Portfolio Man, July 7, 2009
Dave, The best move is to bet against Claus. He is 0 for 9. I got out already because I couldn’t take the loss anymore.
Review by Dave, July 9, 2009
The current sales pitch by Weiss et al for their pricey “cycles” timing product is EXTREMELY annoying—they have the gall to tease us with how much money could have been made during the March-June rally if only we had had this timing tool; but of course during most of that period Martin Weiss was squawking incessantly that everyone should sell everything because of the imminent market crash to DOW 5000. Shame? What’s that?
Review by Portfolio Man, July 9, 2009
Dave,
Everything is back tested. So I bet you and I could have came up with similar results by taking all of the high flyers over the last couple of year and put some overlay chart on it. Drawing lines on historical charts and watching their movement is easy. If the stock you pick doesn’t work, throw it out and find another one that will. He gave us the same hype when we joined MCP. I just wish for once, his service would actually deliver something of substance (ie return on investment). He is just a marketing machine with no follow through. Very disappointing.
Review by Dave, July 10, 2009
Wandering just slightly OT, but IMO another Weiss timing GENIUS is Ron R. who just talked me into selling their loser SRS (having dropped 35% from when I bought it—yeh, my own stupid fault for not having a stop for this dog, but the forecast for real estate has been very bad and it seemed reasonable to hang onto it) and of course Ron’s advice to sell was very close to the recent bottom (19 or so)—SRS is up 20% since then. Kicking myself…
Review by NoSale, July 10, 2009
Portfolio Man,
You’re correct, of course, in that great harm has been suffered by those unfortunate enough to have actually FOLLOWED the untimely advice offered to MDCP members.
As far as accountability - well, you know as well as I that performance is never guaranteed by those offering such advice.
And you’re also right in that it would probably be a very poor idea to join the newest ‘timing’ offering. Timing is precisely what went so very wrong with the MDCP.
That said, I still really enjoy reading the gloom & doom coming from So. Florida - but one does have to put a reality filter on it or else suffer some losses. If nothing else, it’s a interesting counterpoint to the PermaBull BS that emanates from other sources.
Once again, truly sorry for all the losses suffered by those who followed the untimely advice.
Review by Dave, July 11, 2009
Latest from The Contrarian Show:
Dang…..we have a Contrarian Cyclic Divergence. Our two cycle-enriched dudes, Larry and Claus, have opposing views. Larry still sez all his market indicators point up, but now Claus wants to increase the inverses! How can this be?? What does it all mean?! Stay tuned for the next exciting episode…
Review by Portfolio Man, July 13, 2009
I hope Claus didn’t double up on SEF on Friday! It has fallen from $62 to $57.64 today. Did they give you another 30 days of free trial? I can’t imagine anything is in the black yet.
Review by Igor, July 13, 2009
***ALERT*** Sources from within the Weiss Organization are reporting to TMZ.com that their joint venture agreement with the Foundation for the Study of Cycles is not panning out as expected. Despite statements to the contrary, sales of the FA’s market timing product have been abysmal and ongoing talks at Weiss, we hear, are realizing a major price reduction might be the only viable option remaining. Did Richard Mogey miss the “all a board” call for the Weiss timing cycle?
Review by Igor, July 13, 2009
To all of you former members who left the MCP comedy show just wanted to let you know that we’re still in the red. The only difference is the red is getting redder. It’s a proverbial blood bath of losses and the fun keeps coming. The latest reco lost over $3.50 within one (1)day of being recommended!
Review by Dave, July 13, 2009
Hey PFM, nope, no more free trial extensions that I am aware of. Too bad, as I’m going to miss watching the show. Gotta try to suppress that let’s-gawk-at-the-train-crash impulse and get my $$$ back. I just hope the exit doors don’t get logjammed by late in the week. Re the new inverse choice, no, he’s staying with the broader pick. It could have been much worse–imagine if he had chosen double inverses.
Review by Portfolio Man, July 14, 2009
I just got his new Charter Enrollment for The Foundation Alliance and it will CLOSE FOREVER (just like MCP which equates to 2 or 3 months after the poor performance). I can’t believe he put “you could have turned your $10K into $58K, $351K or $373K”. What a bunch of bull. Yeah, if I would have invested in EMC/Dell/Cisco or MSFT in the early 1990’s and sold in March 2000, I would have made $5 million. I don’t need to pay Martin $2K to look in the rearview mirror for me and tell me something I already know. Hopefully, people are reading this site for the real truth about Weiss subscriptions. He did the same hype for MCP and Crises ETF Trader. Both subscriptions marketed it to “turn $10K into hundreds of thousands”. That is funny because I took a bath with both and lost more with them then I did on my own.
Just like Dave said above, his services is like watching a train crash. Unfortunately, I was in the rear car and suffered some injuries but luckily jumped out before the crash happened.
Review by j.t., July 14, 2009
Dave, Igor, Portfolio Man etal,
There’s a forum for MDCP now…you can get to it via stockgumshoe.com Come on over!
Review by Portfolio Man, July 15, 2009
JT, I will flip over to the forum shorlty. I just want to make sure people see these postings as I am strongly against MCP and other MAM product offerings. By the way, his inverse funds are getting smashed this week. Someone above said he wanted to increase his inverse holdings again, glad I am not around to suffer any more. He was so wrong on the inverse plays it is a crime. Plus he used the Foundation research for his June and July picks. Supposedely, those picks were train wrecks as well. STAY AWAY NEW MEMEBERS!!!!! Preserve your capital.
Review by Elmer Fundd, July 15, 2009
Every recommendation has been dire.
Every chance to make a profit has been missed.
Every entry point seems to be the wrong way at the wrong moment.
Couldn’t have been worse.
Capital preservation or suicide?
Buy low, sell high. Disastrous.
Review by disgruntal, July 15, 2009
Well… I got smarter and stopped buying klaus suggestions….
i decided not to buy the last one even if i missed the up swing… boy.. am i glad?!.
The show is very entertaining… but i want my full refund back. If they do not extend it… I will have to find entertainment elsewhere….
Thanks guys!
Review by Portfolio Man, July 15, 2009
disgruntal,
I got rid of the subscription in late June because reading his monthly summaries are toxic and kept me out of the market. Did his July picks join the 10% loser club?? His inverse funds are getting hammered this week, especially SEF. Plus his inverse on the NASDAQ has to be taking a beating as well. I don’t know why they just don’t cancel the service and give everyone’s money back. This is a crime to keep convincing people the market is going to tank. They cost me more than 10x the subcription price. This is the worst service that I have ever encountered in my lifetime and they could never get me to buy another subscription.
Review by disgruntal, July 15, 2009
Hi PortfolioMan,
Not sure when the online portfolio is updated at MDCP but SEF is down 16.38%, and the inverse on nasdaq is almost 7.
My guess would be that updates occur at night since this is a fairly static portfolio so these numbers may be higher. There are a couple of positions that are on the plus side…
So.. out of the 9 positions in the portfolio…. 2 on the green but obviously that does not compensate for the rest.
I am wondering if he is going to tell members to get out of the inverse etfs…. as he has been alluding to given where the S&P is today. There is a special war room session on Monday to be moderated by someone new…. may be that is the news.
The ranks are not happy as you can easily imagine and I believe most people like me that were lingering around will jump ship cause everyone is afraid of losing the opportunity to get a full refund. It is like adding insult to injury as you well know. If Martin was smart and he really and truly believed what he is preaching, he would extend the full refund period a little longer cause once a customer is gone.. that is it!!… but it does not look like that will be the case
I will give them credit on one thing…. their customer service is very good and they do give prompt refunds. I subscribed to one of their premium services and given cost/performance I jumped out and I got a full refund right away.
I fully agree with you…. any of their services would cost people a pretty penny.
Review by LarryG, July 15, 2009
After losing (so far) several thou–and am still holding some of the duds–hoping for a recovery,I cancelled today and hopeful for a full refund of $1500. Martin’s customer service gal, Sherry is a very sincere, capable employee–trying her best to keep me as a subscriber. She talked me into staying on for another week or so to await the implementation of the “Mystery Timing Cycle” thang for which Martin paid $5 million–it would be sure to improve the MDCP performance. Then the other shoe dropped; Martin now wants $1600 dollars for my participation in the “Mystery Timing Cycle” fiasco…and Sherry said it would enhance the MDCP (premsumably for no extra charge). Is there no end to Martin’s greed? You know the old saw, “adding insult to injury” by twisting the knife after stabbing me in the heart–asking for another $1600. I have also lost in Safe Money Report(cancelled) and also in Crisis Opportunity ETF (still hanging on in the face of lots of losses). Martin is the ultimate Medicine Man of old–but goes even further. He doesn’t just sell you his Snake Oil and moves on. He keeps coming back with more and better Snake Oil at ever increasing prices! Perhaps we should induce the SEC to issue another injunction & fine as before.(see one of the earlier postings with hyperlink to the SEC action agains Martin & Larry Edelson). According to the SEC one of his MANY newletters had 10,000 subscribers @ $1000 per which equals $10 Million (before cancellations–if he gave such). So don’t feel sorry for Martin & Larry Edelson if you ask for your paltry $1500 return, they can well afford it.
Review by Dave, July 15, 2009
It’d be interesting to see what new picks Claus comes up with if he sells the inverses and crosses over into bull territory. A little late to that party, unfortunately, since it started 4 months ago. Still lots of opportunities, though.
Review by Portfolio Man, July 16, 2009
Hey disgruntal,
Thanks for the note and I agree, MAM’s customer service is excellent at the “no hassle” cancellation policy with prompt refunds. I received my credit within 3 business days. This was my 3rd subsription cancellation with the various services he offers. All three cost me a lot of money for being free. The only one I still have is “UN-Safe Money” and I am going to let that lapse once it expires.
If he replaces Claus, that would be like saying he was dead wrong!! In Martin’s words more or less - “Claus is the man, Claus is the visionary, Claus preserves peoples weatlh, Claus has an uncanny ability to pick stocks” This must be really hurting Martin in the pocket book. But than again, Martin always said he agreed with Claus’ veiw everytime. Also, if you stay a member until Monday, you are past the expiration date and will only get back 8 months worth of refund. This is a ploy to keep people guessing as to what is new. Please get a full refund, nothing he says is worth losing 4 months of subscription fee. THIS IS ANOTHER GIMMICK!!
I stopped the free daily newsletters because they were toxic as well. Some headlines were back in March/April as the rally began “SELL SELL SELL everything”, “the next big failure, the US Government”, “Next big bear market leg down happening now”, “Home prices to fall again”, ETC… Bottom line, Martin had a great call for the 12 months preceding August 2008 (when I wasn’t a member) but like most research firms, they don’t change their mind that easily. Martin made a great call with Dow 7,200 and once it hit, he moved his target to DOW 5,000. If he would have stayed with DOW 7,200 prediction, he would be a market genius and a stock pickers guru. But he didn’t know how to be happy with his original prediction.
Review by Ian.A, July 16, 2009
I’m glad I heard about this site. I wish I had known about it before I hooked up with the MCP and Martin Weiss. Who is Tom Essaye the VP of Products and Publications? Is he some type of damage control person for the MCP? If so he’s going to need the help of Jesus, Mohammad, Buddha, Mosses and God to get this mess back on solid ground. I’m exiting tomorrow on Friday the 17TH. Another day of more horrendous losses! This is not what you sold us Martin Weiss. You sold me and a lot of people a bill of goods. Dad’s gone now and tomorrow I’ll be gone from this terrible experience. Google The Foundation for the Study of Cycles for the many truth Martin and Mogey never mentioned. Wiki them also for a list of free software and free services that use timing cycles, stocks work on a 40.68 month cycle. This Weiss exclusive isn’t so exclusive as he would have one believe. Watch out for this guy, he is a slick operator who should be working for Goldman Sachs.
Review by Portfolio Man, July 16, 2009
Ian and others,
If I recall correctly, your cancellation date is July 19. So if you stay a member until Monday to listen to the special war room, you are past the expiration date and will only get back 8 months worth of refund. This is a ploy to keep people guessing as to what is new. Please get a full refund, nothing he says is worth losing 4 months of subscription fee. THIS IS ANOTHER GIMMICK/MARKETING PLOY!!
I know I seem obsessed with this but I have lost a ton of money with this guy and it still burns me up. Sorry, if I seem to be going overboard with Martin and MCP but I don’t want anybody to get burned anymore.
Review by disgruntal, July 16, 2009
PortfolioMan,
I agree with you PortfolioMan. I would like to share with you this video… what he is saying is really good and actually apply to all of us
(http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eT_MO7Z6HyE)
All the things he said is exactly what Martin & Claus have not done, etc.
1) Claus is always early and wrong. He does not accept it. We are all entitled to be wrong.. even 50% at times.. but they cut loses early and move on.. and hopefully the other 50% make up for it but
2) He never sells when the market is telling him that he is wrong… basically he is losing money
3)… and while he is very smart… does not change when everything change because he thinks his academics make it right.
But above all… I think the problem is us… we should have walked away once we saw the loses but hoped it would change.
Review by Portfolio Man, July 16, 2009
disgruntal,
I agree, we should have been smart enough to move on. However, his data points and the way it was marketed it was very compelling. Plus Martin was right last year about the market tanking, so he had credibility. As for Claus, everything about him was Martin building up his credibility. I never knew who Claus was before MCP. Thanks for the youtube video link above. I will listen to it today. I like Dennis Gartman and believe in him. I just wish his newsletter was more affordable. By the way, Dennis doesn’t believe we are anywhere near or going to be in a depression (especially a Great Depression). Complete opposite view of Martin and Claus.
That was Claus big fault, no stop losses, purchased SEF 4 days before the stress test results were announed (very reckless), purchased the S&P and NASDAQ inverse in the midst of their bull runs (or bear bounce per Claus). Either way, he was either very late or very early. Either way, he lost. He broke a lot of trading rules that Dennis probably mentions.
thanks again,
Review by disgruntal, July 16, 2009
PortfolioMan, I am with you. I love Gartman but his letter is too expensive. want to join forces and buy a group subscription?
After the market closed Claus sent a note saying that for those who bought the 20% additional shares of SH, that they need to sell it. The S&P has stayed above 920 for 2 days. Finally the man acts and speaks.
Can you believe that I got a call from Weiss Research to see if I want to join the timing tool?. I told the person ‘NO’ because I have already lost too much money with them and he says… this may be better than the other… something sort of like Larry is better than Claus, Mike and Martin as he is more technical, etc…unbelievable!
Review by Portfolio Man, July 16, 2009
disgruntal,
Wow, they actually called you!!! They must really be hurting after the MCP fiasco. If he has any MCP member left, I would be surprised. I thought 80,000 people saw that Mystery Timing viewing. He must have had a bad take rate if they are calling you. Not to mention a lot of pissed off MCP members. I wouldn’t even think about joining it. He is just a marketing machine. Plus he paid $5M for a portion of the foundation. I don’t think he is recouping his investment anytime soon. Here is a hint Martin — use your cycle theory to make up for your lack of membership. If you can turn $10K into $360K, you don’t need members, you have the secret sauce and can keep it all to yourself. Good Luck Martin!
I can’t believe Claus doubled down on SH, he is clueless. Is he still holding SEF and PSQ as well?? Both of them are getting crushed as well. He said he started using the cycle information for his June purchases and they are all down. This should be a big red flag to new people “DONT BUY THE NEW SUBSCRIPTION”. If he gets new members based on people viewing this wonderful website, then you should lose your money!! I hope this is helping people.
By the way, I am up 12% on my overall portfolio since leaving at the end of June. Now I got rid of the toxic readings and am doing much better. He really made a dent in my portfolio since I lost 40% just before I joined him, he lost me an additional 15% with MCP and ETF Crisis trader and now he says he is wrong and you should sell the inverse funds after a 40% run up in the market because he sees more upside. This is just reckless and wrong. Like I said on his blog, if I just sat on my hands and did nothing, I would have only suffered a 10% loss in total (versus the 50%+ that I have to dig out of at the moment). I wish I never received any emails from MAM.
By the way, Intel and JPM both called a bottom to the economy this week. If that is not a powerful indicator, I don’t know what is. Martin better get a clue otherwise he will lose more members. Eventually he will be right again but I can’t afford to listen to him because I would be insolvent before he is right.
Review by Dave, July 16, 2009
I just called to cancel my subscription before the Friday deadline and was told (you’ll never guess!) that the deadline for a full refund has again been extended, this time until July 23rd. The idea is of course to allow current subscribers to attend the War Room this Monday. I am happy to stick around for a few more days, and look forward to Claus’ latest pow-wow, although I think I can already imagine what he will say—most of it is probably contained in his latest alert.
Review by Portfolio Man, July 16, 2009
Dave - keep us posted on the war room briefing. If he changes his mind (meaning turns bullish), members that lost a lot of money should blast him with questions and blast him on his blog!!! The bloggers knew more than him and we paid him for that bad advice. That is terrible and unethical. He is a joke and should apologize to all members for his lack of ability to pick stocks. Claus has no proven method. The 66 out of 68 wins he referred to was bs and only Bernie Madoff did better and you see where that landed his investors. Sad day that Madoff and Weiss are used in the same phrase. Maybe that is cruel but how do you go from 66 wins out of 68 trades to 0 for 9. It doesn’t happen unless you lie and do false advertising.
Thx again Dave
Review by Grey Geek, July 16, 2009
text removed by admin for copyright concerns.
Review by Grey Geek, July 16, 2009
@ Portfolio Man, on July 16, 2009 said:
Dave - keep us posted.
here is the answer
Claus wrote in his latest ALERT that he will SELL the complete last addition to the portfolio (Intent to Sell (SH): 48-Hour Head-Start Alert!)
Review by Portfolio Man, July 17, 2009
disgruntal,
Great clip. You need to post it on MCP’s blog if you are still a member. Claus and Martin need the lesson. He does the complete opposite of Dennis:
1) Claus and Martin never admits he is wrong (basically in denial). He made members double down and now he issued an alert to sell.
2) I don’t think he was early but was late. The Dow went from Dow 14K to Dow 7K and started to bounce. So he bought inverse funds. Probably 1,000 more points to drop to the downside and probably 3,000 points of upside. Not a good risk/reward.
3) The charts were all going against him.
4) Bought SEF 4 days before the stress test and his only answer was “they were rigged or bogus”. Regardless of what he thought, it restored some level of confidence and banks started to pay back the TARP. He still said he thought banks were going down with no reason behind it. Once again he was wrong.
5) Dennis is not calling for any depression where that is Martin and Claus big claim to fame! So far, Martin and Claus are on an island of their own.
By the time Martin and Claus are right, we will be insolvent and bankrupt. They are fighting government stimulus from around the world. They can keep beating the drums and they may be right at some point, but we cannot be foolish and wait for that day. My goal is to make money not lose more because I have an opposing view to everyone else. I hope other members wake up.
Thanks again disgruntal
Review by Addy, July 17, 2009
I find the reviews very informative. I too came very close to subscribing to the Million Dollar Contrarian Portfolio but could not justify the expense. Martin appears to be a knowledgable analyst but maybe too smart for his own good. His investment advice is driven by fundamental analysis without any regard for the best market indicator available, price. Many people try to use complicated and technical information to predict where the market will go but I’ve found that complicated does not imply better. If everyone on this site used a simple 50/200 day EMA crossover to enter and exit the market, they would have preserved 30+% for their investment capital in 2008. This is a fact. We would be waiting patiently for the market to recover and for the “golden cross” to occur. That has happend in certain ETF but guess what, they are not inverse funds. If you are investing in inverse ETF’s during this market rally, you have zero regard or trust in the market which already contains all available information. My advice is to NOT listen to the Doomsday Naysayers but to use simple technical anaysis in designing your investment portfolio. All of your investment buy and sell decisions should be based one the price only. Predictive analysis is good to do but as a forecasting and analysis tool only. The price never lies. For a fraction of the price, one could have subscribed to http://www.fibtimer.com with very little risk, and plenty of reward to their portfolio.
Review by disgruntal, July 19, 2009
PortfolioMan,
I called to cancel MDCP and they extended me a few days so i could hear what Claus has to say monday…. I decided to wait til then just to see what he was going to say. I will let you know and cancel after.
BTW - I have an acquaintance that subscribes to TGL and he told me that Dennis believes that things are changing and the recession is over. That does not mean that data coming out of the economy will not be bad for a while and that unemployment will not surge to 10 or even 12… but the tides are changing. Not sure about any details as this is something this guy mentioned to me at a party this weekend and all second hand. I do not have access to the letter so I don’t know but I thought you would find it interesting.
Review by Portfolio Man, July 20, 2009
disgruntal,
Thanks for the update on TGL. I watched that video and Dennis eludes to it as well and does not believe we will go into a depression. I am starting to gain some ground again in my portfolio. However, I am tyring to figure out another newletter or 2 to have as reference for stock picks.
Please keep me posted on today’s war room. If Claus turns bullish, I am going bearish. We could have made a lot of money betting against him.
Thx
Review by Ian.A, July 20, 2009
How can anyone call Claus smart? Please look at your portfolio’s performance. Does it look like a smart man put it together? Are you satisfied with the ’smart’ mans picks?
Review by disgruntal, July 20, 2009
Well PortfolioMan…. I can honestly say, you did not miss anything. I would have expected Martin & Claus to be more convincing about having people stay…. not really. There was nothing on what he said that made me change my mind at all.
Claus outlook is the same. He will only change his mind about his investing strategy if the S&P makes it above 950 and stays there. Same with the 200 average for the Dow.
I have to imagine that anyone that decided to hold until this session will leave.. but I may be wrong
Review by Dave, July 20, 2009
I agree with disgruntal—the meeting did not reveal anything new in the pipeline and much time was spent shoring up the rationale for the original contrarian assumption that the market will be going down sharply one of these days or weeks. I guess they don’t want to give away any of the short-term plans as they need to give people a reason for staying. Larry E is now saying gold is likely heading down to 800, while Claus suggests the recent gains may be the start of the move to 1000. Martin casually dismisses the differences in opinion of these people who are BOTH USING the cycle theory: “I don’t tell them what to say.” OK, but again, what does it say about the precision of the cycle-based predictions? Wasn’t precise timing the WHOLE POINT??
Review by Just another sheepeople, July 20, 2009
Does anyone have any rational commentary on how Larry Edelson’s just released “Peek Into The Future” with plainly states that the DOW is heading up (with possible small down move) fits in with Claus’ hanging on to his inverse ETF positions until/unless the S&P 500 goes above 950 and stays there.
It seems to me that Weiss Research is playing both sides so that when the market breaks either way at least one of their major “services” will be correct. (Side note: with Martin’s recent track record the market will probably go sideways making all their subscribers lose money; with one still claiming to be right in their newly updated sales pitch when the market finally does move.)
It appears to me that Martin does not strongly believe in either of the two services which if true means he does not believe his own marketing. Unless I am missing something Martin is just another charlatan out to make a buck off of the sheepeople.
Review by Portfolio Man, July 20, 2009
disgruntal and Dave,
Thanks for the update. I am surprised they just don’t close the service. Maybe after this round of people leaving, they will. That service is no different than Un-Safe Money with a couple of more picks and a lot more money for the subscription. Yeah, Larry called for a gold to go down and it has not looked back. If he losses his touch, MAM has no credibility. I just picked up Larry’s subscription for the 30 day trial when I cancelled MCP and I am not sure what to think so far. Once again, I followed another MAM suggestion which was to hedge gold and it is down. I guess I should not be surprised as every subscription I bought from them, my first trades were down.
Also, I cancelled my UnSafe Money right after the latest subscription came out because all they did was advertise the cycle thoery. Well guess what, so did Larry’s edition on Friday. I don’t really think MAM know what direction to follow. This cycle analysis is great at predicting longer term trends in the market. However, they are tyring to use them for short term trends which doesn’t work. Supposedly, MCP and Real Weatlth is using them and the picks are losing. I have no confidence in them anymore or anything they say. However, they do cover themselves by someone always being long, someone in between and the perma bear. So they can always say, MAM nailed it. No kidding that is like saying I think the market will go up and down tomorrow. I will be cancelling Larry pretty soon if he picks like this.
Thx again
Review by disgruntal, July 20, 2009
PortfolioMan/Dave,
Larry is much better than the others and he does set stop losses. The reality of it is, nobody will get it right all the time.
The interesting thing is that I have been reading a few other analysts and they are all for gold as of late. Same with investing in other currencies like australia (FXA), canada (FXC) or Brazil (BZF). The gold does contradict Larry’s forecast for the short term for gold. The currencies do not.
Martin, Claus and Mike are terrible pickers. Timing is everything and so is control of loses…. a concept that they do not seem to comprehend. I find the whole thing disturbing.
Time to join JT on his newsletter site where we are likely to get a little more insight into other things.
An expensive lesson for all of us that tried these guys.
BTW - the S&P is at 950 …. will he change his strategy?. Of course, NOT!
Review by scott, July 20, 2009
I finally got short the market today.. July 20th as Klaus got out of his. He has been the ultimate contrarian pick as he has a perfect record of being wrong. I let my own green and bearishness override good trading principles and a plan. These guys should go to jail and Weiss needs to stop trying to be his father.. Let it go Marty.. this is not your fathers recession.
Review by Portfolio Man, July 21, 2009
disgruntal,
Thanks for the update. I will join you over there. By the way, that cycle analysis shows a complete 180 from Claus. Glad he is using it. I feel bad for anyone that signed up. Also, I hope they open up this on Gumshoe so we can see those stories.
By the way, everyone is beating earning left and right. I am sure Claus and Martin says beware and that this is a farce/scam. They are full of it. While the market is up 45% since the lows, oil has doubled, banks in some cases have tripled, we were sitting there with inverse funds losing even more. They are terrible stock pickers and very toxic to anyones wealth. Also, if you look at when he scared you the most, they were always nearing a bottom in the market. Look at Martin’s posting (on MAM) back in late October, the week of Thanksgiving and end/beginning of March. He sent out emails (free of course)saying the next huge bear market leg is taking place right now, sell everything. He markets using fear of you losing everything and he is the biggest violater.
Review by Kate, July 21, 2009
Portfolio Man/disgruntal,
“Look at Martin’s posting (on MAM) back in late October, the week of Thanksgiving and end/beginning of March. He sent out emails (free of course)saying the next huge bear market leg is taking place right now, sell everything.
He markets using fear of you losing everything and he is the biggest violater.”
Martin shouted - to get the heck out of the stock market. He uses fear to have us sell everything. And you wonder why? To keep our money in safety? Now, I realize his sole and ONLY purpose - is to position us into cash TO HIS ADVANTAGE - to have the cash to SUCK us into his expensive subscription services - back into the stock market. He is a self-serving marketing machine. And I agree, a Big Violator.
He spins one scheme after another purportedly to help us keep our money safe and to help us make money. He bombards us with hypes for great promises, but deliver poor results. Just look at his poor track records (I wish I had). His “team of experts” help people to lose twice as fast - and to lose twice as much - as what we can do on our own. What kind of help is this?
Before leaving MCP, hundreds of MCP site blogs have voiced frustrations and hinted Martin’s intention, character, and credibility. Martin’s action is like a snake oil salesman and not too far off a swindler like Madoff. One of my biggest mistakes is coming across Martin Weiss. He violated my trust for him. A very expensive mistake.
I too canceled the MCP service. I also unsubscribed the daily MAM emails.
Review by Anthony, July 22, 2009
I subscribed to the service in or about May of 2009. Their ability to time their stock transactions is simply horrendous. The most significant example was an urgent update indicating the subscribers should increase their short positions in the market by a whopping 20% in mid July. The justification being a head and shoulders technical analysis indicating a breakdown of the market. Immediately after, the stock market began an 800 point bull market run (that is still going as of the writing of this review). They bought Family Dollar Store (FDO) after it had just ran up by almost 50% already. Of course, it immediately broke down and has made no headway since. Their doom and gloom approach makes for interesting reading. In fact, they may be correct about their predictions at some point. However, they are horrible about converting their theories into making money, which, was my main point in buying the newsletter in the first place.
The most disturbing point was that after buying the newsletter for a subscription price of $2,000.00. Subscribers were bombarded by advertisements for a “stock market timing” newsletter. The cost was another $2,000+ for this service. Funny I thought I already paid to receive the proper stock market timing advice. Moreover, if their timing research actually worked, why was their other newsletter losing money on virtually every trade?
Ultimately, these guys are good at one thing…marketing their newsletter. This is how they make money, not off their stock market prowess. I cancelled my subscription.
Review by Ron K, July 22, 2009
The only thing Weiss is effective at is a prompt refund at least for now.
Review by Ian.A, July 22, 2009
Congratulations Martin Weiss and Claus Vogt. Our last pick, a retailer(A**) collapsed today. Down 18% today alone!!!! Does anyone at the Wacky Weiss World have a f**k*ng clue as how to manage money? The market is up over 2000 points since March and this portfolio from hell just keeps getting worse. Martin time to dump the Clausmeister and get someone who knows what the hell they’re doing. I lost enough money with Mike Larsons “ETF’s: The Fastest Way To Lose Your Money” service and now this. ENOUGH IS ENOUGH MARTIN WEISS. Maybe it’s time for a class action suit to make Martin put our money back into our pockets and out of his.
Review by Ian.A, July 22, 2009
P.S.
NO NO NO for the LAST TIME NO. I’m not interested in your “cycle yourself to a fortune” service so stop hawking it like a snake oil salesman. Try using your efforts to improve the MCP’s awful performance. This MCP started off as a short/mid term service nows it’s long term? When did this happen as I don’t ever remember getting the email announcing the change and God knows you know how to send out emails! The SPAM email laws were written for companies like yours in my opinion.
Review by devoquilla, July 22, 2009
Fully agree with all the comments above.
I am truly disgusted by the performance of the portfolio. These people have no idea what it is like to make money other than taking your subscription money even if it is for a while…. and of course, they know how to make you lose money.
Stay away from their services and their constant claim that the world is falling or that they can make you money. They will NEVER EVER make you money… they dont know how.
It will sound good… dont let them lure you.
They can’t time anything and their tools are bogus… if the tools were good… how come all their subscribers lose money.
Ian… I am sure if you took them to task… people would follow
Review by devoquilla, July 22, 2009
By the way…. where are Martin and Claus every time things get ugly?. Counting our money and laughing at us!.
I remember reading somewhere when I used to look at Money and Markets (I do not anymore of course).. that if your advisor made you lose this much money, you should fire him….
obviously Martin does not drink his own kool aid.
He put $1M… that is probably short change for the man….
Review by disgruntal, July 22, 2009
Kate… could not agree more with you!!!
Sad day indeed, the day we all came across Martin Weiss….
Come to show us all that while the internet is a fantastic way to get information, it is also filled with unscrupulous people…
An expensive lesson… for sure. Lets hope we all learned something from it
Review by Capcdoc, July 22, 2009
SO glad I dumped this service! I agree with Kate, I became so disillusioned with Weiss because of the MCP that I dumped ALL his Emails, even though I had received them for years. It is too painful to read his weekly (sometimes daily!) messages about how the market is about to crash… yet it doesn’t.
Review by Ian.A, July 22, 2009
Well after todays fiasco of a nearly 20% loss in a single day on top of an existing loss makes Claus and Martin look clueless. They stopped posting blog entries today at 11:31AM trying to contain yet another disaster. Closing the blog only makes me come here to post so Martin you aren’t hiding anything from anyone. Tomorrow the 23′rd is the last date to bail and I will. I was going to stay after Monday’s War Room because Claus made sense. But Claus also said in the War Room Monday that todays disaster du jour was a good pick. I have lost all confidence in Claus and this upsets me to no end. I keep giving them the benefit of the doubt and each and every time they disappoint me and the other MCP members. Martin I believed in you and it seems like you don’t care about anything but yourself.
Review by Dave, July 22, 2009
Inadvertent humor from Weiss Inc: in the latest e-mail from Unca Martin he says he has just read a new book on coping with low investment income in tough times!! Yeh, there’s a lot of that going around, at least among Weiss MCP subscribers. He’s interviewed the author and is sharing the interview. I haven’t listened to it yet, but no doubt the author will be saying that even the most brilliant stock-picking wizards can at times be slightly off in their timing.
I am no longer an MCP subscriber as of today, but I have not been an active participant for a couple of months when I sold all the picks and adopted a wait-and-see approach to each new pick before buying. So, no new buys since then.
Review by disgruntal, July 22, 2009
Well…. i am happy to say that I am officially done with MDCP.
I had stayed to listen to the War Room and see what Claus had to say.. of course… all of this before the full refund expired. The war room was useless and his silence today after one of his favorite picks dropped over $4 was unbelievable. No acknowledgement of any form….. just a copy of the transcripts from the war room….
The funny thing was that one of the people on his blog was suggesting that we should leave Claus alone because we were pressuring him…. ha ha ha!.
Claus and Martin.. total disregard for his customers… but then… why should we be surprised?!.
Review by Elmer Fundd, July 22, 2009
I cancelled my sub by mail last wednesday - thanks be.
I can only see a disaster for anyone who continues.
Every buy was at the wrong time.
The inverse ETF’s were insane - buy low??? to ditch at a loss.
There were great chances to make money and I missed every one because I was watching to see if the MDCP had credibility.
Missed the rally, missed the lovely volatile month where every short from peak earned well, missed the final 8% decline, and then we get to short a 9% rally.
It couldn’t have been planned any worse.
If you sold stock as advised by the doom scenario and went down 20% to 30% compared to staying in then God help you.
If I had followed my own feeble logic I would have made a good sum of money.
Cannot read another word from them as every time it stops me from doing what I know I should.
Play with tight stops on the few high probabilities there are coming our way….
Cannot wait to see them fall off the magic cycle machine.
Review by Mike, July 22, 2009
Yea, I’m a “Charter” member of the MDCP, frustrated as anyone about how very poorly their recommendations have performed, thus far, and what a shyster Martin Weiss is. Sadly, I truly believe Claus is right, that we ARE on the brink of a very real and significant financial decline. The problem, I think, is that our government and markets are extraordinarily lacking in integrity. Honesty seems to take a distant back seat to making enormous amounts of money. Who can believe that our nation’s largest banks, saddled with toxic debt levels never seen before, are earning such enormous profits?! Wasn’t it Goldman-Sachs who reported that their first quarter earnings set a company record? I might have believed that a few years ago, when the economy was stronger, but to have them try to pass that off now says nothing to me but corruption (Enron accounting standards) in the highest circles. Who lets these criminals get away with this?! Doesn’t anyone believe in fair anymore? I have very little faith in our government, including Obama, and even less in the fairness of our markets, which I feel are being terribly manipulated. I also believe that I’m watching the economy slowly collapsing around us. I sincerely think Martin ought to be wearing a red & black checkered jacket and black bowler hat because he is nothing short of a snake oil salesman. On the other hand, I believe that Claus, even though significantly more wrong than right so far, will prove to be right in the next nine months or less. I realize that tomorrow (7/23) is the last day for a full refund of the MDCP, but perhaps very foolishly I think I’m going to trust Claus for a few more months. He seems very sincere and has what I think is a solid grasp of market fundamentals and a sound interpretation of available data. Even though I’ve lost many thousands of dollars, I think I just may give Claus yet another chance. Who knows, if I lose enough money maybe I’ll qualify for TARP money and can turn around and pay myself a multi-million dollar bonus, just like AIG’s criminals, er executives.
Review by Sammy, July 22, 2009
All,
I cancelled today as well. By the way, thanks to people like Portfolio Man, disgruntal, Dave and others, I did not buy any of his last recos. AAN lost 15% today alone… WTF. By the way, they are pumping their cycle thoery subscription left and right and supposedely the subscription is closed forever. This tells me he is nowhere near recouping his $5M investments in the Foundation. Martin has lost any and all credibility he gained last year. Everything out of his mouth is toxic to my investments. He is a disgrace and his picture should be posted with other frauds like Bernie Madoff. As for Claus, he is clueless. I will go broke by the time his picks come through. PSQ is getting slaughtered as well. Claus, the NASDAQ is up 11 days in a row.. HELLO MCFLY, wake up!!! YOu are supposedely a pro. My first grade child pointed to to stocks in the WSJ the last 4 months and picked all winners. You are clueless.
Mike,
Glad Claus is sincere to you. He is clueless to me. Hopefully, him being sincere doesn’t land you in the poor house anytime soon. He is a researcher and not a stock market timer. Plus he used the cycle theory on his June and July picks and they got hammered. Good luck Mike, I wish you all the best.
Review by jonny, July 23, 2009
Hi Mike! Nice try….since when are you employed at Weiss Inc????? Better stop these idiotic statements! I cancelled in April this mess and anyone out there should do the same! Imagine the money you lost by selling all the long stuff at 6800/7000 in the DOW than going short and seeing the market skyrocketing to nearly 9000. For amateur mathematics- that you make back the money the dow has to fall a minimum to 5000!!!!!!! What a embarrassing mail you sent…MIKE!!!!!!!!!
Review by disgruntal, July 23, 2009
PortfolioMan… check this site out http://www.chartingstock.blogspot.com/
It has some interesting info… including a potential pullback in the market as it seems overbought but who knows. An opportunity for those that still have toxic assets from MDCP portfolio to get rid of them?
Review by Elmer Fundd, July 23, 2009
MDCP recommended shorting on SP - many bought at 870 or about.
MDCP bought 2 days later at 900 ish - don’t have exact figure.
After 3 days they tell us to sell. MDCP approx 945.
Now it has just reached 975 on 23 July 2009….
Spectacular! A 12% rally and the members who took part lost thousands. Some clever fules might have made six figures if brave enough to use potentially dangerous CFD’s.
Even positive ETF’s at 870 would have earnt loads.
This Great Recession is a roller coaster ride with opportunities for the bold requiring fast trades in both directions. MDCP may have given the impression that the great slide into the abyss would start from the lows of Mar 09 and waiting for the perfect storm was the thing to do.
A contact made through Weiss mentioned that gold might decline and I have seen it go from 908 to 956 in under two weeks.
I might start selling the ultimate wealth preservation vehicles on e-bay. Mattresses!
Review by Ian.A, July 23, 2009
Why do people think and keep saying that they think Claus will be right? Seems to me that many of the posters and Weiss members are perma bears. Claus and Martin have done nothing but loose money for over four months in a market that’s up 2500 points and yet some of you still say ‘I think Claus will be right’. Why then did many of the people who now say this about Claus eventually being right leave the MCP? It seems like you’re contradicting yourselves or are living in a land of fear. Fear is what Weiss uses to sell his snake oil. Stop being afraid, do your homework and move forward. Bottom line is Claus and Martin have totally gotten this huge rally wrong. Those are the facts plain and simple. Some people could never accept that John Smith was wrong also. Saying Clause may be right in the long run is akin to saying even a broken clock is right twice a day. That my friends simply isn’t good enough for me and my hard earned money. How do you think the rating agencies would rate Clauses performance?
Review by Portfolio Man, July 23, 2009
disgruntal, thanks for the site. I agree. I still have some DOG Unsafe Money that I got hammered on. I am so pissed at Weiss, the market is now up 46% from the low when he scream to SELL, SELL SELL!!!! I have only recouped about 12% from my low. I am getting daily emails on Cycles. They probably had low amount of subscribers for this service. Martin’s credibility is shot. I think he and Claus are scammers and there should be some type of recourse against them for false and hyped up advertising (ie turn $10K into $150K by following their theory). I am glad one of the members above turned it over to the DA in Florida. I actually rejoined Action Alerts for some ideas. I have had a better track record with Cramer for the last 4 years. I don’t buy everything he buys. I wait until pull backs and then buy. so far, it works for me.
For those sheep still following Martin, here is a little caveman story. Years and years ago, a caveman (uneducated simple person) rubbed 2 sticks together to start a fire. He tried to touch the brigth light and pulled his hand back because he burned himself and never did it again. Fast forward to today. The member is a caveman (sophisticated and well educated individuals) and the fire is his Martin’s and Claus stock picks. You have now gotten burned 9 times and trying for more. Moral of the story… A CAVEMAN IS ACTUALLY SMARTER THAN THE MCP MEMBERS THAT HAVE STAYED ON PAST THE FULL MONEY BACK REFUND! I have no clue why there are any members left.
For those that left MCP, congrats and good luck investing. I hope you get back on track to prosperity.
Review by disgruntal, July 23, 2009
PortfolioMan….. Martin turns 10K into -150K…
They forgot the minus sign in front of it.
I am so disgusted by the whole thing. I bet you money that he has not said a thing about the market today….
Review by Sheepeople, July 23, 2009
I got from one of you above that Claus Drew a line in the sand at around S&P 500 958+/-, it is at 976 today and I do not see a 48 hour alert to sell on the latest activity section of the MDCP site.
Further, Larry Edelson said on todays free video that he expects the market to go up and up.
I guess the best course of action is to go 50% Claus and 50% Larry then you will only be down transaction fees, ETF holding costs, and of course the subscription fees going into Martin’s pocket.
Come on Martin two of your major services saying to do pretty much the exact opposite both using your timing tool.
Review by skeptical-by-nature, July 23, 2009
I was a charter MDCP subscriber but proscratinated (in characteristic fashion) from acting on the first recomendations. Once I saw them go down, I never invested and just hung around to watch the show. The final exit cue for me was the attempted hawking of the even more expensive cycle service and I happily got my refund in full. I cannot add anything to the previouly made criticsms but am obviously in total agreement. Perhaps if the service were free I might read it, but would not be likely to act on it.
Review by Ian.A, July 23, 2009
Actually Claus drew a line in the sand at 920 not 958. Also today the 23′rd was the last day for a full refund…. for now. Things at the MCP are in a mess as one pick is down nearly 25% actual number = -24.86% so please Martin don’t call me a liar over a 00.14% roundoff so please Dad, no more wire hangers. Another is off over 18% my personal favorite is off nearly 16% but that’s ok because stop loss orders are useless when your picks gap open to the downside overshooting your stop by $2 or $3! For those who don’t know WHAT a stop loss overshoot is I try to explain. It happens when you put a stop loss order (sell order when stock hits a certain price it become a market order unless otherwise specified) in say for $25 on a stock and say the stock is trading at $26 the price you happened to pay for it. You place a stop loss order in at $25 because all you want to loose is $1 if the stock goes down. When it gap opens down and overshoots your stop loss price, in this case $25, the stock might have closed at $26 but after the market closed the company reported awful earnings. The following day people only want to pay $23 and not the $25 you wanted so your loss is three times greater than you thought that would be ….. you wanted $25 but only got $23 loosing an additional $2 per share you own. Sort of what’s happened twice at the millionaires portfolio for chronic losses. Our motto is:
“WE NEVER LET A LOSS GET AWAY FROM US” or our older motto: “YOUR MONEY IS OUR MONEY AND DON’T YOU EVER FORGET IT, MAGGOT”. or our beta motto: “CYCLE YOUR WAY TO ENDLESS FORTUNES ON OUR TIME MACHINE”
No word from Claus or the uber Martin. Two days since the A** disaster. Seems like these people hide every time there is a problem. Err, Come to think of it I almost never see these people. Do you think there might be a connection there?
Well tata for now fellow MCP masochists.
Review by disgruntal, July 23, 2009
Ian… he may have drawn the line but never told his members to sell…
Review by Ian.A, July 23, 2009
Only once did he tell us to sell a stock he had us buy just days before. You’re right he never has given much of anything right up to this day. disgruntal are you still a member also?
Review by disgruntal, July 23, 2009
No Ian, I am no longer a member….
I stayed through yesterday before the full refund was upon us. I wanted to see what they said not that I was planning to stay …. had lost all faith in them.
While I did not buy his last miss when it came to shorting the market, I do have some of his other positions and have had to leak my wounds. I would not add insult to injury.. no way.
Until yesterday, there was no selling and we had hit that mark.
These guys never say they are wrong and make a change or reposition themselves… they just remain stubborn in their positions…
Seems from your note that you are still there…. keep us in the loop. For your sake, I do hope that things turn around enough to recover the loses.. or minimize them.
Review by Portfolio Man, July 23, 2009
disgruntal,
That is true, supposedely Claus and Larry are both using cycle theory and they have completely opposite opinion on which way the market will move. This is just another joke and the only person going to get hurt is the members joining. By the way, I just got another invitation to join cycle theory. What happened to this was going to be closed forever!!!!! I guess not many people joined. There has to be some law against false advertising to this magnitude.
By they way, MCP has 150 postings on this website. I believe they now have the most postings by a landslide. I hope this ruin Martin’s subscription services as he is the typical used car salesman. You cannot sell hype and never deliver, that is not right and/or fair for members. He needs to feel the frustration and aggrevation that we all have.
Review by disgruntal, July 24, 2009
PortfolioMan,
I am sure they waited until all those that had decided to leave, left to tell everyone to offload some stuff and buy some new one. My guess is that it is either the inverse etfs or the stock that lost so much money this week.
You would have thought that they would have done the dropping before we left as a courtesy to those that had put their faith in them… but nope… that is too much to do for your “subscribers”.
You know, the interesting part is that when I was looking at TGL, they offered a free subscription for a month as you may know. I really liked it but it was a little more than I wanted to pay. Well, Dennis had changed his strategy shortly after the trial period. Guess what he did…. well, he sent all the people in that trial period the newsletter to let them know that he had changed course. I was quite impressed.
Martin should have learnt from Dennis…. but then again, I do not know if he changed strategies….
Ian.. did he?
Review by Portfolio Man, July 24, 2009
What is funny, is all the Leading Economic Indicators are all starting to turn positive. Claus hung is hat on this as his benchmark. Claus, maybe get some reading glasses, the chart is getting better. I see Martin is not sending emails out saying Dow 5K anymore. What a joke, these are professionals and have gotten this all wrong. I actuaully blame myself as all of my friends are bragging that they are back to their pre-crash portfolio levels. My friends were buying the GS, BAC, AAPL, F, FCX, BHP, etc (ie brand name companies) during this downturn by following the buffet theory of buying when everyone else was scared. Martin made it sound like there was going to be a complete destruction of the system. Wow, where they off and I was buying into it because of fear factor. I hope others read this site and cancel MAM.
Review by disgruntal, July 24, 2009
They are professional researchers and analysts.. not traders or stock pickers… even his terms and conditions say that.
Of course I am telling you this in hindsight as I have had time to think about my mistakes.
I can fully appreciate what you are saying in term of where your friends are and where you are. In the same boat almost.
I had hoped a lot more from the service… oh well. My own fault.
Need to look forward.. as they used to say in an old show (Hill Street Blues)… be careful out there.
Review by Lisa, July 25, 2009
Portfolio Man,
Thanks for pointing me to this review from Money and Markets. I had no clue since I just joined MAM a month ago. They keep sending me emails on cycles and was thinking about doing it because they were so convincing. Based on you and others on the site, you are pretty clear to stay away. Thanks for everyones honest because I really can’t afford to lose money like this.
Thank you Stockgumshoe for letting people post as this is very helpful. AFter seeing the 150+ comments above, it is pretty clear on members views and the poor stock picking of MAM.
Review by AlanH, July 25, 2009
I too am a member of Weiss’ MDCP. It’s brilliant that the above blog is far more open than their own blog. But lets get some perspective.
1/ read Martin D Weiss wickopedia. This says he and Larry had a run in with the authorities. So they are v careful since, to say that they dont offer advice, they simply publish expert opinion and leave it to YOU to decide whether to follow it or not. So anyone using their service expecting guarantees got it wrong.
2/ Their blog is HIGHLY censored… v unamerican. Its getting better these days but…. censorship is censorship. Unacceptable for me.
3/ If you had shorted all of their picks, you’d be well ahead. Sticking a pin in the list would average standstill. MDCP has scooped the market for failure. Why??
4/ The published info has been typo’ed twice… v sloppy.
5/ The info from various Weiss publications are at odds… v confusing.
6/But if the sky was really gonna fall, their tactics were right. No question. However, the sky didnt fall (at least hasn’t yet) so the strategy has proven wrong ie if you subscribed, YOUR STRATEGY at that moment when you typed in your CC numbers WAS WRONG.
7/ everyone needs to blame someone else for their own mistakes: Martin can retire to Florida on your blame.
While I dont like backing a loser and losing $…. I backed it. Who should I blame?? All past history said the sky really was gonna fall…. I beleived in that before I signed up… so its me that been proved to be the fool. Cant blame Weiss for escorting me down the road I chose to tread.
I still believe there will be a major fall…Maybe tomorrow I’ll be crowing about my gains…. Hope so!!
AlanH
Review by Dave, July 26, 2009
I am surprised that MAM got in trouble with the feds because virtually ALL investment newsletter services do exactly what MAM was doing—they provide stock or other investment advice/picks to their subscribers. That’s what we pay them to do. How anyone could misconstrue such advice as being PERSONALLY TAILORED investing advice I cannot imagine, but that’s what they got in trouble for. Hence Martins’s OH-SO-CAREFUL video a couple of weeks back where he differentiated their money management investment service (where they actively manage your portfolio for you) and their various newsletter services such as MCP, where you make your own investment decisions.
We all know that in theory there is no guarantee associated with any of these paid-for services (even when they manage your account), but there was something about the stridency of Martin’s articulate and apparently fact-based warnings and his calm self-assurance (Claus’ too, for that matter) that *felt* like a guarantee. But yes, it is always our choice to follow their advice or not. I wonder, if the market never tanks and Martin’s grim scenario is never realized, whether there might be some sort of class action lawsuit by the people who bought his book and followed his recommendations to sell everything but the life essentials.
Re blog censoring–this is a very common practice in private blogs. It happens routinely and daily in the reader “comments” which follow online newspaper articles, and happens routinely in several forums that I have subscribed to. In fact, registered participants can be booted out of (ie, un-registered from) newspaper comment sections or forums. I am no lawyer, but what I have heard is that it is legal consorship because it is not public speech when the site is owned by a person or a company. It seems to me that the MCP blogs got progressively less censored over time. There were some very critical comments published in the last few weeks.
Review by j.t., July 26, 2009
Alan H and Dave,
Thank you for your excellent posts. In the next day or two I’ll comment on the SEC ruling and blog censorship over on the MDCP Forum page. Membership in MDCP has been an invaluable experience for me and well worth continuing the discussion, even for those of us who are now out of it but who might be contemplating joining some other advisory service (the grass is always greener on … fallacy).
Review by Ian.A, July 26, 2009
Another long buy issued Friday. This one has me as concerned as much as the last two “loosing longs” did. This new pick has already doubled in price in the last 12 weeks and it seems like we’re getting in on this “winner” far too late in the game. It’s one that I may not get right away. As you MCP members know Claus hasn’t been very good in the timing department. I’m hoping he’s right this time as he’s using Martin’s new $5 million dollar Time Machine.Hopefully Claus is cycling the portfolio to riches beyond anyone’s dreams. I’ll keep you informed as much as I can legally.
Review by disgruntal, July 26, 2009
Alan & Dave - Good points. I blame myself for following Claus and Martin. I let their stuff get the best of me as they were so convincing… so shame on me. I just think it is important for people to know that their services are not what they are hyped up to be. A word of caution to all out there is important. In the end… we can always make up our own mind.
I can tell you this much…. had I read a blog like this, I would have been more weary of joining them or buying any of their services or recommendations.
Ian - I am curious…. if you do not mind me asking. what did he have you sell?. Inverse ETF or his other 2 loser retail related stocks. You do not have to name, names… just general idea. Thanks
Review by jonny, July 27, 2009
Have a look here…nothing more to say…
http://www.sec.gov/litigation/admin/2006/ia-2525.pdf
Review by Portfolio Man, July 27, 2009
disgruntal, Alan and Dave,
I am in the same boat and should have made up my own mind as well. I guess we put a lot of credibility in his call last year about the market crashing. However, Martin and Claus didn’t know when to stop calling for a bottom. I am sure if we would have hit Dow 5K they would have changed it to Dow 4K. Martin did have the right call initially when he said Dow 7,200 back at Dow 12K but got to greedy for his own good. In the end, the choice is yours (and I agree disgruntal).
I just hope forums/reviews like this will let future members know if a subscription can:
1) consistently deliver profit while protecting ones wealth. Haven’t found one that I can follow trade for trade yet. If you know of one, please share:) OR,
2) if the subscriptions are good and/ok but need to do your homework after every recos. For example, I subscribe to Action Alerts by Jim Cramer. You can’t follow his suggestions trade by trade. I take his picks and wait for pullbacks as he is buying in over time. This has worked well for me since I buy below his basis and sell when it goes above his initial entry price. He has a portfolio of 15 or so and I pick a couple to trade. This takes time and homework but can be profitable OR
3) If they outright lie and hype up their results and cannot follow through like Martin Weiss does. Every subscription that I have purchased (ETF Crisis Trader, MCP, World Currency Alerts, UN-Safe Money) had advertised turn $10K or $50K into millions, just follow us, we got the secret sauce. I guess that should have been the first red flag. All four have resulted in HUGE LOSSES. This type of advertising should be illegal unless you actually can back up the performance with statements and not backtested results like MAM. I can perform my own backtested results and turn $10K into $1M as well but that is not reality. My Unsafe Money and Real Wealth are running out shortly and will not renew. Unsafe Money just sold 2 of biggest losing inverse ETF’s on Friday (the bank and the emerging market one). I can’t believe he can advertise like this and get away with it. But hopefully future members will not join or at least think multiple times before joining. 160 unhappy reviews on this site cannot be wrong. If I saw this many bad reviews I wouldn’t even consider joining any MAM subscriptions!
Review by Portfolio Man, July 27, 2009
Jonny,
Thanks for the site but he was acting as an “investment advisor” by executing trades on the customer’s behalf. That is what got him in trouble. But it did mention he was unethical regarding his marketing hype (points 12 - 14). Since then, he has segregated Weiss Capital from Money and Market’s subscriptions. Everyone should know since I get daily emails from both of them wanting me to give them $100K to invest in one of their brokerage accounts under Weiss Capital (that was a big NO). I wish he would get sued for false advertising on his subscription services. This is why I have the problem with them. If the justice department won’t do anything about this type of unethical advertising (meaning all hype around returns), than the only thing we can do is voice our frustrations on this site in hopes that less people join and hurt Martin where it counts the most (in his pocketbook by less people subscribing).
But if anyone has the time, please read this link that Jonny provided on July 27.
Review by Ian.A, July 27, 2009
disgruntal, we sold around half of the ETFs, all of the two letter one and half of the money handlers one. Tech stocks are benefiting everyone except those who are still 100% short them waiting for the day they will go down enough to recoup whatever losses they have and the losses that continue to grow daily. As I write this blog our latest purchase, the one from last Friday is DOWN, now there’s a suprise…..! NOT!
Review by Portfolio Man, July 27, 2009
Ian,
Thanks for the update and I haven’t been a member since end of June so I am not bound by anything. When he purchased the inverse QQQQ, that is when I called it quits. He got the banking one wrong and purchased SEF 5 days before the stress test results were announced and it hasn’t looked back. So after that debacle, he said the NASDAQ was overvalued but mutual funds were purchasing those companies hand over fist. This did not make sense. Luckily I did not buy *SQ but it also stopped me from buying AAPL, RIMM, INTC, and others that are up 25% or so since that reco came out. Claus is clueless. What scares me now is that Martin and Claus believe the market will continue to go up. So now I don’t know what to do. We must be nearing a top if they are convinced to reduce the inverse ETF’s and go long on some other positions. Glad it took 40%+ rise in the market to convince them to be long. What a joke these 2 are.
Are the handler ones the precious metal ones that we initially purchased?
Review by Elmer Fundd, July 27, 2009
After a (false?) rally lasting since early March they announce that a multi week rally is about to start. Only a couple of weeks since chicken licken saw the sky falling down.
New recos to be announced, new wrecko’s to be born?
What’s next? A cycle repair kit for another……
Review by Ian.A, July 27, 2009
No, we still have all the same metal ones, the handlers I refereed to were the short-side money companies. It was one of the triplets. Today’s MDCP blog is so nasty and rotten to both Martin and Clause I can’t believe the censors even allowed them to be published. Someone’s going to loose their job when M or C read what was written about them and then published on their own blog. The blog is now so negative I find myself laughing at some of the things said, however I never loose perspective of the fact that good people have lost a lot of hard earned money. I feel badly for those people. Clauses latest pick is being questioned intensely by the members before they act on the alert.
Review by Portfolio Man, July 27, 2009
Ian,
Thanks for the update. It was pretty brutual when I was there posting back in May and June and people would tell me to leave because I was so negative and Claus was only doing his job keeping us safe (I was actually losing money and not safe). They told me I didn’t have a stomach for his approach and I ask to many questions. Well, I hate to see people lose money but that will be one of the most costly lessons ever for people. Missing 10% run is ok but not 40% and than sell the inverse funds for a loss and buy some longs. That is BS. To me, being short the market is short term hedge and not a long term strategy. I kept asking that question amongst others. That is when I started to question him and his strategy (whatever that was-it surely wasn’t contrarian). But in the beginning he called himself an opportunistic trader which he is not. If possible, someone should post this website again to the MCP blog so they can post here and not be censored.
thanks again
Review by disgruntal, July 27, 2009
Ok… I will share a good one with you guys.
I was talking to a friend today who works for one of the top brokerage firm (the likes of ML,etc.. one of the big ones) and he told me that as of today, they have been told that they have to tell their clients to get rid of these inverse etf within the month as they will not be among the list of items the company will allow to trade… mainly because they are very bad for people’s wealth. How about that?.
I am glad that those guys were looking out for us.
BTW - how do those guys expect anybody to believe anything they say after the last 4 month disaster…..
Review by disgruntal, July 27, 2009
Elmer….. multi week rally…. may be, I should have kept my inverse etfs. Whatever they suggest, we need to short!.
Review by Portfolio Man, July 27, 2009
Thanks disgruntal, I heard the same thing from a friend of mine but they are restricted from buying any of the leveraged ETF’s 2:1, 3:1 (ie SDS, DXD, SRS, SCC, etc..). They are allowed to only use 1:1 only (SH, DOG, etc..). I am sure it changes firm to firm but is great information to know. Hopefully, no one is holding the 2:1 levarage to the downside, they have to be hurting at the moment.
We should do the opposite of M&C because they have a perfect record of losing money. I many join another subscription and short all of their picks. I bet we will make a killing:)
Review by jonny, July 28, 2009
Hi Portfolioman,
I know that this SEC filing was because of the “investment advisory” subject. The most interesting thing was that L. Edelson was not doing the the portfolio anaylsis and picks but othere employees from Weiss Inc.
I tested the MDCP for 6 weeks or so but I admit I only subscribed to see what style they do! My first comments on the MDCP blog where censored as well so I thought I better leave this thing (thanks god)! After a fall in the DOW of more than 7000 points these guys wanted to get the last penny from the short side!!! This advisory has nothing to do with money preservation or risk reduction, it’s a stubborn perma bear, I am right and the rest are idiots western trading…
I had a look at the premium services trading history- it’s a tremendous loss game! I’m from Europe and admit I’ve never seen such a marketing and doom machinery like this!!!
By the way: Klaus Vogt wrote a book (which is ok and interesting) with Roland Leuschel (a seasonable crash prophet) in 2004 called “the Greenspan Dossier” which is messing around with Greenspan’s bubble approach! Klaus is NOT an opportunistic trader as it’s nearly not possible to miss a 40% move (and even more in emerging markets)without being 100% stubborn and ignorant….
It’s a bit of a shame to me that he’s from Germany!
Review by Portfolio Man, July 28, 2009
Jonny,
Thanks for the note. I came to the conclusion that Martin Weiss and group are perma-bears as well. He always eludes to earlier calls and says “see, we called it!” (even though he made the call 5 years earlier and the market skyrocketed to Dow 14K first before falling in half). But like others and myself have said, we won’t be solvent following his picks by the time he is actually right. Martin and MAM were very toxic to my personal wealth and I wish I never heard of him. I am just glad for sites like this that offer honest reviews from members.
Thanks again,
Review by jonny, July 28, 2009
Cheers Portfolio man!
I suppose you know of Casey Research! If not have a look at caseyresearch.com! I subscribed 1 year ago and I flew over to their Crisis conference in mid March! It was fantastic to see people like Peter Schiff, John Mauldin, Doug Casey, Robert Friedmann, etc.
I can only recommend this service by 10 stars as it is unbiased AND opportunistic….
All the best from Germany
P.S. I’m also a subscriber to shadowstats.com, gloomboomdoom.com from Marc Faber and leap2020.eu which is a French think tank (but including Anglo-American macro views…
Review by disgruntal, July 28, 2009
PortfolioMan…. we should short anything they pick… look at the market today.
They told people to sell the inverse etf… the market is down.
Amazing!…. just amazing!
BTW johnny & PortfolioMan - Do you get the plain casey report or any of the other?
Review by Portfolio Man, July 28, 2009
disgruntal,
Martin and Claus have the worse timing. They really do not have a clue. The market goes up 40% in the opposite direction of their calls and the light clicks on. Now tells you to sell and the market is down almost 1%. Simply…amazing that they could be so bad!!! I wonder what their blogs look like today:) I could only imagine.
Jonny,
Thanks and I will take a look at those websites…Cheers
Review by Ian.A, July 28, 2009
True to form, the latest stock recommendation is already down over $1 from the intial alert buy price. If there is one thing that Claus is is consistent. Oh I forgot to mention……. it’s a LONG pick NOT a SHORT!
Review by Dave, July 28, 2009
Well, to be fair, stocks do normally fluctuate in price quite a bit, so whatever long Claus has picked (IIRC he had his eye on a few China stocks) still may go up unless the bigger picture (bull market) is wrong. Several of my China stocks are down today, as is almost everything else, but these little pullbacks are normal. I have become so skittish about losing money that I have been setting too-tight stops and keep getting shaken out of my positions; then I miss the start of the next upsurge which usually happens in a day or three. What a masochistic game this all is.
Review by Portfolio Man, July 29, 2009
All,
I really think Claus is clueless. I just looked at MAM out of curosity today and he is talking about white and black marbles. If he is always looking at data that has happened, the news is already baked into the stock prices. Hence, he waits for good news to confirm a movement and misses a 40% run up in the market. Thanks for confirming that Claus (Master of the obvious). The problem with Claus and Martin are: they are telling us news that has already been published. For example, for months Martin was saying GM was going bankrupt (no kidding) and commerical real estate was the next shoes to drop to crater the market. Guess what, GM did go bankrupt and the market has not looked back. I don’t even think they are good researchers because they are not telling us anything new unless you don’t look at the newspaper or WSJ. Basically, they are worthless. What a joke.
Btw, Claus now thinks the market will run up for the next 2 quarter or so. Thanks Claus, you miss 40% and this is your insightful and thought provoking prediction!!! You are quite the contrarian (not). This is like buying inverse funds at Dow 7K, all of the easy profits have been made already! Some people still think he is a genius while I think he is an idiot. There is no way this man could have have made winning trades in the past using this strategy (remember his 66 wins out of 69 trade). Impossible!!!! Martin and Claus are reckless and unethical in their advertisements.
Review by Ian.A, July 29, 2009
This new pick in not a China stock and it’s down down down again today. One of our shorts is down -32.17%, yes you read that right down -32.17% and that’s up today because the market is down. Our second to the last long is down -20.07% and it’s down today also. We’ll have to see how the day goes. The blog at MCP is becoming very nasty between members defending Claus & Martin (very few of those people around) and mostly everyone else on the opposite side (attacking Claus & Martin. This is not what Martin or Claus were expecting of the MCP when they conceived it I’m sure.
Review by Elmer Fundd, July 29, 2009
I have seen Claus’s new chart showing a head and shoulders pattern indicating a rally for several quarters. Three weeks ago there was another head and shoulders pattern the other way up indicating a collapse. The chart must have been the wrong way up all along! And the wally was going up instead of down I fink. This is too much for me - I’ll go back to hunting wabbits.
Review by Dave, July 29, 2009
>This is not what Martin or Claus were expecting of the MCP when they conceived it I’m sure.<
Yep, but it is doubly galling (after both losing money and missing large gains in the bull market) to then be told that for only another few thousand dollars you can get a NEW service from the same group of clowns that RILLY RILLY RILLY will make you some money! So you end up feeling like an idiot for falling for the MCP hype and suffering losses and missed gains, and then they make you feel like an idiot yet again for NOT falling for their pricey new gambit. A real lose-lose.
Review by disgruntal, July 29, 2009
Hello All…..
I thought I would share with you an interesting article I found in thestreet.com
http://www.thestreet.com/story/10553720/3/kass-updating-the-model-portfolio.html
Ian - you may still have a chance
Review by Portfolio Man, July 29, 2009
disgruntal,
Thanks for the link. See, Doug knows what is contrarian play right now: depressed HMO’s.
Claus,
I know you have to be reading this site for reviews (or at least someone from MAM). So here is a lesson on being a contrarian investor by Doug Kass (read this link), buying after a 40% run up is not contrarian. Please look at any dictionary for a definition and get a clue already. You should be holding your head down as you are a disgrace and I don’t believe you have managed money in the past. You couldn’t have with your type of strategy. Your trades are all based on known information. Claus does not provide a forecast unless some indicators are showing it is moving in that direction for confirmation. That is a losing recipe. You actually waited for the 100 and/or 50 day MA to go above the 200 day MA to make this call. That is BS and you missed a 40%+ run up.
Review by Ian.A, July 30, 2009
Well this morning brings even more losses for the MCP. Our financial short is now down nearly -35% YES you read that right -35%. Yesterday it was ONLY down -32.17% and still nothing from Claus. He’s probably on holiday in the south of Spain. The portfolio is going down faster than the Titanic and the only thing Martin is doing is pushing his Time Machine to Cycles of Riches. This is the worst situation I have ever put myself into. I have lost all faith in Claus and Martin is nothing but a snake oil salesman. I’ve grown to really dislike Martin and like Madoff he’ll have his day in court I suspect. As the market is up 160 points at the moment I dread to see how the day will end up as even some of the longs are down today also. YES you read that right also! The market is up over 160 points and some of our longs are still down. Unbelievable, just unbelievable.
Review by Portfolio Man, July 30, 2009
Ian,
I am sorry to hear you are taking another hit today. That is why I got rid of them in late June and refused the additional 30 day extension. Everything I received from Martin and Claus was toxic to my personal wealth. I am doing much better now because I have gotten back on track. Just a side note, I looked at all of my last 12 months worth of UnSafe Money issues and noticed that everything he told us was to make us more fearful of the market and he was going to be some type of self proclaimed GOD by saving us. This is classic unethical marketing scam: make everyone completely fearful by instilling panic after a huge market crash and compound it with the end of the world is coming EXCEPT Martin and MAM will save the day and preserve your wealth. This is unethical and reckless disregard for the truth. Martin preys on everyones fear (which is a lot stronger of an emotion than confidence in a downward spiraling market). Martin needs to be brought to justice for false advertising. As of this past Monday, I cancelled my UnSafe Money because I do not want to give Martin any more of my hard earned money.
By the way, the large banks that supposedely make up the SEF are not going to crash. JPM, BAC, GS, MS are all announcing better earnings and are paying back the TARP. So I do not believe the banks will pull back in the near term. Since I left MAM, that is where I have been buying into since they still own SEF. Also, his PSQ call in late May, if he still has it, has to be getting crushed by now. They are terrible people not to respond to this market reaction.
Another side note, I am so glad my broker at a major institution talked me off a ledge in March. He told me not to sell everything as they believed the market was going to get a bounce. So I told him to protect 25% of the assets he had under management for me and let the other 75% run. Thanks to him, I would have even made a larger mistake. I showed him Martin’s UnSafe Newletter and he said while some of it may be true, Martin preys on peoples fear of losing everything and wants you to feel like he is protecting you. My broker was right. However, everything I directly controlled (401K’s and my brokerage account all went to cash and inverse funds). HUGE MISTAKE THANKS TO MAM.
Review by Ian.A, July 30, 2009
Portfolio Man, YOUR observation of PSQ being crushed is right on target because guess what… we still own that “honey” and it’s a crushing away! You know what shorts we bought and you know which way the market is gone. A blogger today suggested that Claus is on a holiday in the south of Spain. I still have 3 weeks left of my extension and looking forward to the show that’s quickly becoming a bad episode of the Twilight Zone. Even CNBC is talking about the shorts being crushed today.
Review by Portfolio Man, July 30, 2009
Ian,
I am not under contract with any MAM services so him buying SEF, SH, and PSQ were complete debacles and had no “stop losses” like UnSafe Money recos (which he sent a notice to sell last week). I don’t believe in anything MAM says at this point, there credibility is shot with me. I just keep posting here in hopes people will wake up and not join their premium services in the future. He has cost me a lot of money based on his unethical marketing hype and I don’t feel obligated to respect him after I cancelled the membership. MAM is garbage in my eyes.
Ian - I hope you get out of MCP and start to make money again and use MCP as an expensive learning experience that will never be repeated again. That is what I did. Just remember Dennis Gartmen’s saying “the market can remain irrational a lot longer than you can remain solvent”. Don’t fight the market!
Review by Portfolio Man, July 31, 2009
All,
I heard the best comment today that always rings true. If you waiting for the economy to turn and confirmation with LED (which Claus loves to look at all day), you will have missed the initial rally (in this case 45%). By the way, there is nothing that says you cannot sell at this point either. I was a March member and kept asking Claus on his blog the following (even though others were saying I was toxic and should leave because Claus was protecting us):
1) it seems things are getting better and the Dow just fell from Dow 14K to Dow 7K, are we just chasing the last couple of % down? The easy money appears to be made already. Claus never responded.
2) I also said, LED were stabilizing and getting slightly better. Claus response was in 2 newletters/war room responses “they are just less negative, don’t let that fool you.” Either way (glass half empty/glass half full), to improve, things need to get better (or less worse if you are a pessimist). The numbers weren’t going from negative (5%) GDP to positive the next quarter (which is what Claus was looking for). So they were negative (3%) and improving. The whole point is for stocks “it was getting better. Like I said above. Claus waits until he recieves full confirmation of a bull market rally to go long and that is way to late. Once again, the easy money has been made and he is trying to find the last couple of percent. However, he had no problem preaching the downside for the last year or so (hmmmm… sounds like a perma-bear to me).
3) He purchased the SEF 5 days before the stress test results. He waits for confirmation per my bullet point #2 above but then he buys the inverse fund before the results??? Then his only comments were “these test were a farce and manipulated.” Guess what, the stocks never looked back. Plus he still has the position today at a 35% loss and gaining.
4) Then he said the NASDAQ was overvalued in May and purchased PSQ. That was a good one as well. The first half of this year has been the best in NASDAQ history. No comment again from Claus or Martin. They switched the focus to their new product offering “Cycle Timing.” What about the people that paid for MCP???? That is right, he already has your money!!
Claus and Martin’s strategy doesn’t make sense to me because they don’t have one. Second, they are perma-bulls and they only make money once every 10 years or so due to a major market correction. If anyone stays with Claus and Martin you will suffer dearly. Please save yourself and your money by cancelling today. You can’t afford not to.
By the way, those looking to waste money by signing up for Cycle Timing should think about this. If MAM staff were working with the foundation for years than why are their picks so poor all the time?? All this is going to result in is high trading cost and you getting stopped out at 2% everytime because they are choosing high flyers that probably move 2% in a given day. If they really turned $10K into $150K+, why are you know just hearing about it??? It is called Martin needs to recoup his $5M investment that he keeps mentioning in his advertisements for the foundation. Think about that prior to wasting your time and money.
Hope this helps
Review by disgruntal, July 31, 2009
OK PortfolioMan….. I had a friend of mine as a joke share this with me
http://www.moneyandmarkets.com/flexibility-breeds-opportunity-5-34931
I could not resist and share it with you, Dave, Ian and company. Are these guys for real?…. flexible… ha, ha, ha.
Yeap.. after leading sheeps to the slotter, they are flexible… urghhh
Review by disgruntal, July 31, 2009
So Ian…. how are you holding up?.
Did Claus and Martin finally give MDCP members the famous 200-day later… we have finally confirmed this is a rally with staying power ?….
I think of those guys and my stomach turns. I sure hope they get their piece
Review by Lisa, July 31, 2009
disgruntal,
That is pretty funny about staying flexible to receive more profits. I thought Mike Larsen was decent until I joined Crises ETF . I couldn’t wait 90 days to cancel because he was that bad. That was my first experience with MAM’s high paid subscriptions until MCP that sealed the deal forever. Now I just want others to know I was taken to the cleaners with MAM high paid subscriptions. People need to stay away.
Keep up the good postings.
Review by Dave, August 1, 2009
Disgruntal, yeh I saw that too and was laughing because it seemed to me that he was taking a little jab at poor down-trodden and brow-beaten Claus (and perhaps Martin, too). This rally has got to be Claus’ worst nightmare.
Review by Portfolio Man, August 1, 2009
disgruntal,
This is a joke with Claus, Martin and Mike. All 3 are perma bears and Mike was the first to convert to being less bullish followed by both Martin and Claus because they are not buying inverse funds anymore. I posted on Martin’s blog back in May asking him why he wasn’t scooping up these inverse funds hand over fist since I was down 20% with UnSafe Money picks. Now he has sold some since and is going long on his last 3 picks but never mentioned he was DEAD WRONG (with his trading/recos)!! Martin.. be a real man and owe up to you don’t know how to trade and make money other than these high paid subscriptions. Mike Larsen’s record sucks as well. Just check out http://www.martinweiss.com under trading history. I noticed they don’t post MCP’s performance under there. Probably because it is so bad and off the charts. If he is still holding SEF at a 35% loss, what is he waiting for (50%)??? You don’t need to pay $1,500 a year to help you lose money. I hope members figure this out. A lot of this is common sense and you should have learned your lesson during the tech bubble crash.
Review by disgruntal, August 1, 2009
Hello All…. Great comments. I do hope that others do come and read this side and stay away from these guys… even their so called free subscription….
We all know what it is going to happen now that they have joined the camp of the rally… so let’s be careful out there!.
Check this video of Marty Whitman on Graham and Dodd/Risk/Wall St. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Hlj3fMUx73c
Also… a great interview by the Financial Times with the CEO of Caterpillar
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/ad281592-7d48-11de-b8ee-00144feabdc0.html?nclick_check=1
PortfolioMan…. i think those “pundits” at Weiss - that is such a Martin word - do not post things in their history until they have sold. Since they have only done that twice (and this is a guess since i am no longer part of the service….. the huge S&P short the second time and the sell financial one), you wont see anything listed there.
Review by Ian.A, August 1, 2009
Thanks disgruntal for the “Link ‘n Laugh”. These people are simply unbelievable. Mike ‘bad picks’ Larson should have given this analysis to Claus. Actually it looks like it WAS written for Claus. Martin doesn’t seem to realize how poorly his subscribers feel about his picks as well as him. There are always some fools on the blogs thanking him, Claus, Mike, etc. Thanking them for what……. being down money based of the rotating Chicken Little spinning atop the Cycle through all the cash from your wallet into his wallet Time Machine?
Listen, if Mike Larson was so market smart he wouldn’t have to wear those God awful buy 1 get 1 free polyester suits from Marshall’s. He’d be wearing hand made Italian designer suits from all the money he was making.
Review by Portfolio Man, August 3, 2009
disgruntal,
That is true on only seeing the sells. I guess if Claus does not sell, it won’t show his poor record. I peaked at MAM today and Martin is full of it. All of a sudden he doesn’t mention the imment crash and now says buy Brazil because he grew up there and knows the market???? This is new news to me. He always comes up with some type of new experience that we never heard of. I think he tries to relate to how the market feels that month. This is just more sincere marketing hype garbage showing how he relates to us and tries to build up his credibility. Martin… give it a rest already. You are a fraud!!
Review by disgruntal, August 3, 2009
PortfolioMan…. it must have taken all those unhappy members, some serious departure from the service and of course 200 days of confirmation for Martin & Claus to finally decide to change their minds…. of course, after all of us.. lost plenty of money… which seems to be the way to go with them…
So, now… the name of the game is Brazil (which I think he is right). I seem to recall that his wife was from there… so he does have perspective there… and he did educate in Asia…. too bad, he did not apply this earlier. Oh well… it is what it is
Ian - Glad I could bring a smile. Hopefully, Claus had you sell all those inverse ETF and you are seeing some green. How are things in MDCP land?
Review by Portfolio Man, August 4, 2009
disgruntal,
Thanks for the insight as I have only been tracking MAM since last year. It seems he tries to relate to the current situation (ie Great Depression II with his dad, now Brazil with his wife, etc..). I bougth the Brazil ETF last month and am now worried when he mentions it as he is always near the end of a call/great run. Martin wants to come across as sincere and helpful as his marketing ploy but doesn’t understand how to trade.
By the way, if he cannot pick stocks in the U.S. and lives here than there is no way he knows anything about Brazil other than what he reads. Another distractor since he missed the train at home.
Review by Ian.A, August 4, 2009
Congratulations Claus, we achieved a new mild stone. Our inverse financial stock is now down 38%! (37.8% for accuracy’s sake) and still falling. I’m starting to think that by this time next year I’ll be living in a Tent City thanks to the MCP. The MCP should rename itself to ” Aspiring Tent City Dwellers Fulfillment Fund.” God forgive me as I have also started praying for a mini crash just to get some of my money back. I can only hope the tent city I end up in is in Rio de Janeiro as Martin now likes Brazil. Says he grew up there…… really, read his last blog. The SEC or FINRA can’t get you for BS’ing on where you’re born. Next month he’ll be telling us he was born in China. EWZ he likes so that means we’ll buy it just in time for the downward correction. It’s already up over 60% and you all know Clauses uncanny market timing ability.
Review by Ian.A, August 4, 2009
How about “The Edward Scissorhands Money Handling Portfolio” or “The Freddie Kruger Contra Profit Fund” ? Couldn’t use the little Leprechan dude as he has gold and that’s gone up.
Review by John, August 4, 2009
What can I say. The first and only time I decide to follow a stock guru and market forecaster after all the barrage of “last chance” emails and how it’s going to not only preserve my capital but make me a ton of money. Horrible timing. A classic case of someone thinking they knew more than the market, forgetting that the market always knows more than anyone and doesn’t car what it “should” do, only that it does what it does. If you do not think “the trend is your friend” this is the portfolio for you.
I resented all the hype and all the “last chance” stuff only to find they kept letting others in even after the absolute deadline. I got burned bad by actually buying their recommendations and lost more money than I EVER had on my own.
Stay away from this and all the hyped Weiss products. It’s the same thing he’s been preaching since his old book in the 1980’s on the money crash and it’s made him a millionaire many times over I’m sure. I found myself hoping the economy would crash just so I could get my money back. That’s the day I knew I had to get out.
Review by Portfolio Man, August 5, 2009
All,
I don’t know whether to laugh or cry by looking at MAM posting today for Claus (http://www.moneyandmarkets.com/the-stock-market-signals-a-medium-term-rally-2-34971).
Claus,
ARE YOU ON DRUGS OR REALLY THAT STUPID!!!! Today you finally realize we are in a medium-term bullish rally!!! REALLY!!! This comes back to my point that he waits until confirmation to determine a direction (ie the 200 day moving average). There is no way he can/could have been a successful trader because he is always behind the curve trying to squeeze out the last couple of % of profit. He just let 45% of upside go and was/still in inverse funds than just realizes the market is on an uptrend. This is just as bad as buying inverse funds at DOW 7K after it just lost 50%. Wow, and people are still following both Claus and Martin as some type of GURU???? For anybody still in MCP, if this isn’t a sign of a poor trader with no strategy, than you deserve to lose money. If he were at a brokerage house (MS, Merrill, etc..), he would have been fired in late May/early June because clients would be exiting quickly.
Now for those who are going to tell me he is not a trader and is an longer term investor, here is a big clue…. shorting the market is not a long-term play it is only a hedge/short-term play to the current market conditions. If you short something, you can only double your money since $0 is the best price you can achieve. Claus and Martin do not have a strategy. Even their investment in T Bills got you zero return and you missed out on 45%. That should make you mad as it did me.
For those that want to understand how to trade, see the link above that digruntal provided. It is a youtube video from Dennis Gartmen. Claus violates so many of the rules to successful trading, he should hold his head down low and resign and give everyone back their money in full for the subscription. Martin, you should do the honorable thing if Claus doesn’t have that authority to refund everyone’s money back and fire him and stop sending out this marketing hype garbage. YOu are no better than Bernie Madoff!
Review by X, August 5, 2009
They are really consistently bad. Is the market going down now that Clause become bullish. I really should stop reading them, the only value is entertainment right now.
Review by Portfolio Man, August 6, 2009
Sad to say I still held my UnSafe Money for another month to only see Martin go from bearish on the S&P, NASDAQ, and most foreing markets to neutral on 2 of them and bullish on the last one. WTF.. if you are not changing your mind on your outlook, than why are you not bearish still. What changed. He should just admit he was wrong. Misses a 45% run up and now he changes his mind just like Claus but does it quietly. Glad it took both of them so long. The easy money has been made at this point.
Review by disgruntal, August 9, 2009
PortfolioMan,
If you have bought other things that are within the same categories of those inverse etf you hold (i.e. stocks that reflect Nasdaq or DOW), then think of them as a way of hedging if you do not want to sell just yet….
I got rid of my inverse etf with the exception of my hedge for gold… couldn’t stand the thought of wishing thinking to go south to recoup my loses.
Review by Portfolio Man, August 10, 2009
Hey disgruntal,
Thanks. I got rid of all of my inverse funds with exception of DOG from my unsafe money pick. What burns me up is my cash sitting there since I sold back at DOW 7K (remember.. before the next big leg down and to sell everything). I would have recouped most of my losses if I just held and did nothing. I did the math this weekend and if I did nothing, I would be 15% down from the peak in August 2007. I did well managing my own money because I parked it in bonds and gold when the sub-prime slime was the theme and got back in around Dow 11K because the market fell from Dow 14K not to long before that. But than I sold all of what I controlled at Dow 7K and started buying inverse funds per unsafe money and MCP. HUGE, HUGE, HUGE MISTAKE. I lost more than if I just bought and held throughout this whole time (Aug 2007 to present). I would have been down only 25% from my peak. Now I am down 45% because I sold and purchased the inverse funds. This is 30% more in losses than what I would have done. This is BS because I listened to his garbage. BTW, I am just venting and I know you understand but want to make sure others that are just reading the review understand as well.
All,
Now Martin puts a note out yesterday and today about Brazil and China like he knows the trend ahead of time. He doesn’t because he made it sound like the world was coming to an end a couple of months ago (new leg to bear market, sell everything including your house, buy T=Bills only, etc…). By the way, if he was really working with Cycle timing back then, than the product really doesn’t work. He mentions Brazil and China after a 100% run-up??? With Martin and Claus, the easy money is already made well before they jump in trying to get the last 10%. They will never be successful traders. I just hope people stop wasting their money on all of his products (maybe with exception of Larry Edelson but my opinion is still out on him at the moment).
My guess is, the Cycle offering will result in minimal gains with large trading fees because the stops are at 2% on high flyers that have 2% moves in a day. Plus they were using it this past year and missed the 45% run-up in the market. So this product is not any good and is all just hype with backtested data. BEWARE MEMBERS.
Review by Lisa, August 10, 2009
Portfolio Man,
I sold all of my stocks around S&P 680 (14 points from the bottom) because of his email alerts and Claus saying that last year was just a dress rehearsal for this year’s catastrophy. They said banks would be folding left and right, major corporate bankruptcies at record pace, commercial real estate collapse, and my home value going down another 20% or so. So far, it has been the complete opposite. Banks have led the rally, not as many bankruptcies, commercial real estate was able to roll their loans and my house value has been stable. Martin and Claus are horrible people by marketing with the “FEAR FACTOR”. It does not take much to scare me after a 50% drop. You are right when you say they are always behind the curve. I have cancelled all of my subscriptions with MAM because they are unethical and terrible people. There should be some justice for us. Hopefully new subscribers will read this and not join. MAM are a horrible group of people.
Review by disgruntal, August 10, 2009
PortfolioMan, Lisa, et al…. Martin gets away with making people lose money and making himself a millionaire at our expense because we allow him to do so…..
I say that because we don’t take him to task other than this forum… and cancelling our subscriptions. He got our money.. he does not care …..
Review by Portfolio Man, August 11, 2009
Disgruntal,
I am just hoping other potential members read this before joining. I was looking at another newletter and reviewed the ratings on this site and they were not that good; hence, I didn’t bother joining. If this deters some members, than this is working. I tried to post on Martin’s blog but my postings get blocked and they are not even that bad (just direct questions regarding his bad calls, timing, being late on all calls/recos, etc..). If you have another place (ie website) to take him to task, I have the time. I really don’t want people to be taken by him in the future.
Thx
Review by disgruntal, August 11, 2009
PortfolioMan, I am sure that we are making a difference with these comments. I was just thinking that we could do more but have not given it much thought.
Review by Portfolio Man, August 12, 2009
disgruntal,
I think the more people learn about this website, the more the word will get out. I was lucky enough to be the 2nd posting under Money and Markets ratings on this website referring people to this review of MCP and Martin. If I read the reviews posted here, I wouldn’t touch a Martin Weiss product ever. I hope it works in order to get some kind of justice.
Thx again
Review by Dave, August 12, 2009
Hey guys who are still in the MCP, I am wondering what Claus the Bull intends to do that’s in line with the Cyclic projection of a rising market for the next few quarters. Any hints? I am not asking for any specifics to be given away here, but it’d be nice to hear about the general approach. Is he heading for China and Brazil and India like everyone else? Has he dumped the inverses yet? Has he gotten on his hands & knees and begged for forgiveness for taking more time/space than a supertanker to do a 180-degree course change? And what does a Contrarian do in a rising market? Actually, he was already a near-perfect Contrarian for the last 5 months–he mostly did exactly the opposite of what should have been done. Let’s hope he’s done with the Contrarian game for the sake of the remaining subscribers.
Review by Elmer Fundd, August 13, 2009
It’s a few weeks since I left MCP and the effects are slowly wearing off. I am now trusting my own judgements more instead of waiting for, what?
This thing has clouded my judgement and taken away some of my confidence.
When a rally happens I will take advantage of it. When a correction occurs I will be in quick and not wait hundreds of points for the call to go in, just as it rockets in the reverse direction.
I will be selective and careful to preserve my wealth.
This 48 hour thing is no good if you can see your pile of cash on fire….
I know it was a long term strategy - but this market is no longer a buy and hold market. The game has changed for the time being.
Best of luck to those who lost money, hope you get some back now, but take care to lose no more!
Review by Portfolio Man, August 13, 2009
Elmer Fundd,
I got rid of the subscription at the end of June even though they offered me the additional 30 days. Their newsletters were toxic. It took me almost a month to de-tox as I was afraid to invest on the long side. So I missed the initital move from Dow 8K to Dow 8,800 when I quit the service. So i have been dribbling funds in up to Dow 9K. They really messed up my way of thinking since I was never a fearful investor until I joined MAM. BTW, shorting the market is not a long term strategy. You only do that as a hedge during volitile times. Good luck and hope you get back on your feet quickly. I am up more than 10% because I have been lucky with some high flyers lately. BTW, I still have a long way to go to get my portfolio back on track from MAM destruction.
Review by Ian.A, August 14, 2009
Were still doing nothing but loosing money. One of our retailers A** is down now nearly 20% while the other F** is down around 10%. This is quite an accomplishment in a market that is up about 3000 points. Even the new FA is performing poorly with an overall loss of 3%. Oh yea, we’re still holding some inverse ETFs in this bull market. Claus is a masochist I believe.
Review by Portfolio Man, August 14, 2009
Ian.A,
That is horrible. Hopefully, you don’t own to many of his positions. Like I said numerous times, he is alway very late on his calls trying to squeeze out the last couple of percent and misses the first 50% move upwards. FDO and AAN were fine when the market was crashing but discount stores don’t go up in anticipation of a market recovery. By the way, I am not a member anymore but remember the symbols. As for his cycle subscription theory, all that is going to do is rack up the trading fees for your broker. I actually can’t stand MAM anymore and what they stand for. They are not traders, just look at their performance.
I hope you get back to prosperity soon!
Review by geoff, August 14, 2009
i’ve been (until today) a subscriber of the MCP for 5 months — since march 15th, 2009. when i called in to cancel (today, august 15th, 2009) i was given a FULL REFUND. i canceled because of: loss of money, loss of confidence, loss of sleep and a realization [after having lived though the experience]: the Weiss Group are fantastic at macro-economic analysis but their INVESTING track record is totally unproven, except for what i have experienced. And that is pretty grizzly, for their best call has been leaving stuff in cash. most everything else has lost value. lesson learned: professional researchers and analysts are of a very different DNA and do not necessarily (and probably will not make for) good traders, stock pickers or portfolio managers. i also found the “precision” and “execution” of the service lacking with multiple corrections issued due to mistakes, a censored/highly screened blog (among “members” no less who PAID a 4 figure price to “belong”), not providing an investments horizon nor stop loss coupled with a “just trust me attitud. IF ONLY claus’s picks, trading, communications and portfolio management skills were in the same league or nearly as good as dr. weiss’s marketing and salesmanship skills, i believe it would have been a real winner. if there are any current MCP members reading this, you should know i was told i would receive a FULL REFUND (even after being a member for 5 months now). perhaps you might post that on the MCP blog (if it will get by the screens/censors?) or at the very least, let them know they can/should get the rest of their sign-up fee refunded — but i didn’t need to even ask for a partial/pro-rated refund — i was offered (unsolicited) a FULL REFUND. for that i give them 5 *’s in the customer service dept.
Review by Dave, August 14, 2009
Geoff, the full refund this late in the game (well after the deadline) is good of them. Seriously. I suppose they feel it is the least they can do after the miserable performance of the MCP. I doubt most other services would do the same unless they had offered that deal from the outset. Well, come to think of it, I have been seeing a bunch of ads for newsletters that now offer a full refund if their performance is lousy. Nice consolation after losing much more in the market.
Review by disgruntal, August 15, 2009
Hi Everyone,
Martin has a deadly machinery…. and the incredible part is that people still follow them….
Review by Portfolio Man, August 17, 2009
disgruntal,
Since he is always so late to the party, I am thinking of using him for a hedge. For example, now that he is not as bearish, I started to sell some of my metal stocks last week including some of my ETF’s FXI and EWZ. So far, I did well exiting. Martin is a terrible stock/market timer. He waits until confirmation happens before he trades which means he will miss every major move (also the easy money has been made) and only jumps in once the trend is confirmed. If we can’t trade with him then trade against him. So far, we would have a 98% win rate going against him. Just a thought.
Review by disgruntal, August 17, 2009
PortfolioMan… that is great. I think that is a very very good idea.
Review by TJ, August 19, 2009
I’ll make this short and sweet. I am a member, unfortunately. I listened to what they said, unfortunately. I wish I had seen a blog like this b 4 I invested. I did not, unfortunately. I’m out a lot of $, unfortunately. Hope others read this b 4 they invest and heed the warnings.
Did you know Weiss was fined over 2 million dollars for “distribution of materially false and misleading marketing materials”. The details are below.
“On June 22, 2006, the Commission instituted settled administrative proceedings against Weiss Research, Inc., Martin Weiss, and Lawrence Edelson (collectively, “Respondents”) for violations of the Investment Advisers Act of 1940 in connection with their operation of an unregistered investment adviser and the production and distribution of materially false and misleading marketing materials. See Order Instituting Public Administrative and Cease-and-Desist Proceedings, Making Findings, and Imposing Remedial Sanctions and a Cease-and-Desist Order Pursuant to Sections 203(e), 203(f), and 203(k) of the Investment Advisers Act of 1940, Admin. Proc. File No. 3-12341 (Investment Advisers Act Rel. No. 2525) (June 22, 2006) (“Order”). Among other things, the Commission ordered the Respondents to pay a total of $2,166,142 in disgorgement, prejudgment interest, and penalties, and authorized the creation of a Fair Fund to distribute this money to the harmed investors. The Commission has since issued an order approving the proposed distribution plan. See Order Approving Distribution Plan, Admin. Proc. File No. 3-12341 (Aug 23, 2007) (Exchange Act Rel. No. 56310).”
This guy is no better then a snake oil peddler and is very good at it. Did not know this b 4 I invested, again, unfortunately.
Review by Elmer Fundd, August 20, 2009
I notice that the current sales ploy is perhaps of the nature of - doom is at hand - you are about to run the risk of losing much that you have - so let me advise you so that you can negotiate a passage through the storms to the promised land.
Fear of loss and the veiled promise of riches is a powerful emotional inducement to follow the piper.
If you look at the experience that Weiss snr went through, after the first crash there was a powerful bear rally before a more deadly crash.
There was no attempt to profit from the rally - the investors could have been given the choice of - stay out - or, take part with care, set stops and be ready to run if it turns.
The crash - phase 2 - that is going to happen in the Autumn? and some time next year, and we don’t know when or how deep - and are the things that we are all interested in so we don’t get caught out.
Claus’s supertanker vehicle is not suited to this environment.
Running to Martin was not a good experience for me and I fear the supertanker is headed for worse….
It was the people who went bullish late in 1930 who suffered the most damage.
Take care fellow beings, dangerous times, desire to recover losses, dreams of gains. Listen to people who talk sense, admitting that they could be wrong, who stress the dangers, who do trade for themselves (not showy little $1M’s), and avoid things that are obvious sales pitches.
The advice you come across the easiest on the internet, with a sales edge could be the most dangerous?
Good luck. Be SAFE.
Review by Portfolio Man, August 20, 2009
TJ,
Instilling fear is more powerful than confidence and he does both. Hence, he starts off by telling you the next big leg in the market is going down starting right now but I can save you. He uses last year’s bear market call as credibility but doesn’t have any follow through. If you see Martin speak now, he is talking about Brazil and China being good. However, the very next couple of days, China went down 15%. Here is a terrible market timer and he has no real strategy for trading. I have adopted going opposite of his calls. So far, I subscribe to UNSAFE Money (with my subscription running out next month). By the way, he bought UNG at $14 last month. Well, I shorted it at $14 and am up $2K (up 14% versus his members being down 14%…28% difference in performance). So you just have to find out what he is doing and do the exact opposite. Now I wouldn’t waste my money subscribing because I hate him and his whole team and think they are complete garbage and very unethical. I wish he would get sued again for false advertising because he is. He is a researcher and not a trader.
Review by disgruntal, August 20, 2009
PortfolioMan… i bet you if someone sued him, I am sure we would all join……
…
Review by Portfolio Man, August 21, 2009
disgruntal,
I wonder what happened when Mark turned the info over the the attorney general. See “Mark, June 30, 2009″ posting above.
Mark,
If you still look at this site, please give us an update.
thx
Review by Portfolio Man, August 26, 2009
All,
For those of you that were in MCP, Claus kept eluding to how bad the LEI’s were. However, here is his comment today:
“After getting better three months in a row and rising above the zero line during the fourth month, the LEI is telling us that this severe recession will be over soon. That’s a positive message.”
Now, I asked the question back in late March on his MCP blog about them being at a bottom and each month thereafter got slightly better. He called it less bad where as I said improving (steps to getting better). I can’t believe it took him a full 5 months to figure out the LEI’s rose above zero. I also said, the indicators would take time to get to zero as it does not go from -5% to zero in one month but he demissed it.
Bottom line: He is clueless and waits for confirmation. As you can see he is 5 months late on calling the market turnaround and missed out on a 45% rise from the bottom plus lost a bunch of money because he was in inverse funds during that time. Does anyone still belong to the service? Does he still own the inverse funds like UnSafe Money by Martin? If anyone does, I feel very bad for subscribers that couldn’t just walk away for whatever reason other than just enduring more pain and believing that civilization will cease in the near future per their predictions.
Review by Axclr8, August 26, 2009
FInally, I threw in the towel today and exited MCP. Basically, never go into investing service without researching their track record. And WHO IS CLAUS????
When I joined I did not actually trade any of theire recomendations. I waited 3 months and today was it after the last Video. OMG, you need to see the BLOGs on the ContrarioanPortflio.com site!!! Everyone is giving Claus and Martin CRAP!! And nobosy responds to these poor souls! It is very sad as some people invested 100K in the portflio and have no chance of making it back becuase they are locked into inverse ETF’s that LOOSE VALUE over time!!! I mean CLAUS WTF!!! YOU CAN’T PLAY WITH PEOPLE!! I am shocked that nobody has taken them to court for losses. I mean c’mon …. they did a perfect job of hauling in investors with the gloom and doom story in March, April, May. These people distracted me so much with their adversting that it made me miss the bottom or even entering the Naz at 1500!! This is the market for a trader … not a BUY and HOLD INVERSE ETF BUNCH OF ASSHOLES!!!! The reason why people fall for Weiss and his Ponzi staff is because they make it appear sooooooo easy …. INVESTING IS NOT EASY!! Everyone loves EASY …. but you pay for what you get … their are far better services out there … BigTrends.com etc.. In the end I blame myself for not taking action earlier. Now I have to wait for the next bottom or selloff in the market before being comfortable to enter again …the opportunity COST IS HUGE!! That is the loss … because I could be sitting on 50% to 100% gains if invested in some low price stocks at that time … like ARM that went from less than a buck to $10+!!!!! Ah well, damn, another lesson learnt …
Review by Portfolio Man, August 27, 2009
Axclr8,
I feel your pain. I was an original member of MCP and voiced my concerns on that blog when no one else questioned Martin and Claus and people told me to take my negativity and leave. The reason for my questions was because I lost a ton of money listening to that garbage. I even tried to dollar cost average in and that didn’t even work since the positions fell so fast. They are terrible and unethical!!
All,
On another note, the Weiss Forum Global garbage I receive on a daily basis is another marketing ploy. The way he sucks you in is by saying “you could have got 4x your money by investing in BRAC countries”! No kidding Martin!!! He says it in a way that makes you think that is what he ACTUALLY MADE MONEY ON BUT DIDN’T HAVE A CLUE UNTIL THOSE MARKETS PEAKED. He watches the market ramp up, tells you about it like he called it and you follow him like a cow going to the slaughter house. He impresses you with big numbers/percentages like he already owned the picks when he didn’t. This attracts new members that don’t know any better. I am glad for sites like this.
BEWARE MEMBERS: THIS IS YOUR WARNING, STAY AWAY FROM MARTIN WEISS AND COMPANY AS THEY WILL DESTROY YOUR WEALTH. IF FOR SOME ODD REASON YOU STAY WITH MARTIN AND FOLLOW HIS TRADES, YOU DESERVE TO LOSE AFTER SEEING OVER 200+ TERRIBLE POSTINGS ON THIS BLOG. WE (THE REVIEWERS) ALL CANNOT BE WRONG!!!!!
Review by Portfolio Man, August 28, 2009
All,
For those even thinking about joining any MAM subscriptions after reading the 200+ postings above. I just wanted to give you Martin’s predictions earlier this year and you can decide for yourself how close he really was to calling this years market:
1) Massive Surge in Job Losses – up to 16% (real unemployment) if people weren’t taking part time roles to make money and the people falling off of unemployment with no jobs.
Nationalization of many banks.
2) An Unstoppable Chain Reaction of Bankruptcies – Auto, banks, retailers and various supply chains associated with them. A GM bankruptcy will cripple the market!
3) More Big Declines In Home Prices (another 10 to 20%) – more job loss and lack of credit worthy buyers. Total housing debt market is $20 trillion and the TARP is only $750 billion.
4) A New Plunge in Commercial Real Estate - due to retail and business closures/downsizing,
5) Depression – Deflation and corporate bankruptcies will kill stock prices. MAM feels it is not in anyone’s forecast because they have never witnessed an environment like this in the past.
6) Wall Street Meltdown Inevitable – The government at some point will have to backstopping everything at some point otherwise they are the next victim of the great crisis.
7) BRIC and EU countries are in worse shape than the US–
9) Trailing P/E’s are at 125 (yes this is not a mis-print 125). Stocks are grossly overvalued per Claus’ war rooms webinars in February and March of 2009.
10) The 2008 stock market losses were only a dress rehearsal for 2009 losses your will incur!!! Much more losses to come!!! Get out now before the new bear leg of the market kicks in.
If you look at every prediction above, you would have pulled all your money out of the market and the bank and bury it in your backyard (not to mention you would probably have a mental breakdown as well as the world was coming to an end). Please note #7 contradicts all of his new emails saying to buy BRIC countries. This group is a bunch of idiots and are clueless. They market using the fear tactic. They couldn’t pick a market direction and/or stock pick if they tried. Everything they predict is wrong and all of their stock trades are based already known news which means it is already baked into the stock price. That is not a winning combination on how to trade. Actually, that is a sure fire way to lose money and he has almost everytime.
PLEASE STAY AWAY FROM MAM PAID SUBSCRIPTIONS!!!!! IF THIS DOESN’T CONVINCE YOU, I DON’T KNOW WHAT WILL.
Review by WiseGuy, August 28, 2009
I don’t know about all that in the last post. I’m an MDCP member, and I’m not very happy either, but I’ve only lost about 8% YTD in the service, so I wouldn’t call it a “ton of money”. I’ve looked at MDCP as a longer term thing with not too much risk, and I am frustrated that they have missed this rally so badly. But, at the same time, if you’re looking for someone with a crystal ball and are disappointed when they can’t tell the future, you’re going to be frustrated by every service out there. So, I’ll give MDCP a “C”, bad market timers maybe……………………..crooks bent on putting me in the poor house, I don’t think so.
Review by Elmer Fundd, August 29, 2009
I would not call ONLY 8% down after a 5 month, 50% rally - just like 1929 that they keep on about - anything other than a disastrous result. Are you in denial?
Remember July when they called for a correction only to see another 15% gain in the next few weeks.
When a correction comes it may be very swift and at short notice. They are very likely to call too soon or too late. A 48 hour notice may be of little use.
I felt uneasy after seeing comments from different experts saying exactly the opposite thing to each other.
Good traders - TRADE, those who can’t, advise for a fee???
If I could trade succesfully I would be accumulating wealth, not grinning into a camera suggesting things like ‘Clear Vision’ and ‘Profit from my advice’
Why haven’t Goldman Sachs snapped them up long ago (if the claims made in the ‘Cycles’ video had any substance)?
Review by Portfolio Man, August 29, 2009
WiseGuy.,
At least your name fits. Please don’t take this as a personal attack as I am just stating facts. First off, your rating is higher than a C. Second, do you really think MCP marketing hype lived up to or even close to what they said they would do (ie 66 out of 68 wins prior to opening it up and than all losses afterwards… one cannot be that bad unless they did not tell the truth). Third, the portfolio has to be down huge and missed the single largest market move since 1930’s. By doing absolutely nothing would have got most of your money back. Everyone has their own opinions and I respect them. But your comments above are not reflective of your ratings. While I did not end up in the poor house, I did lose much more money with Weiss than I did without Weiss.
Here is a scenario (close enough but you will get the point): I guess you wouldn’t be mad if someone sold you a high performance 1967 GTO sports car (decked out) at top price over the internet with a bunch of promises (as to speed it can achieve, condition, etc..) and than shipped you that car in the picture with no motor and said they shipped you what you saw in the picture. You would probably be like WTF, that is not what I paid for. I thought I bought the whole car. Now I have to go find a custom motor somewhere in the world to fit a 1967 GTO and pay even more. Well I paid for at least 5 custom GTO show cars at this point and don’t have a car much less the motor. That is how bad they were. They were unethical and sold me a bunch of lies and I believed them. I thought there were laws against that type of advertising. Like Elmer said, if they were that good, someone would have purchased them by now.
Also, if I know you, you will say I wouldn’t buy a car over the internet but I was using this for illustrative purposes. However, you signed up with MCP without really meeting Claus one on one or understanding his background (only based on Martin’s word). Plus his war rooms were canned questions and that subscription cost you thousands??? At least you would have the car…. There is something to think about.
Good luck in the future,
Review by Axclr8, August 30, 2009
I love this BLOG! This just goes to say that crooks are everywhere!!! Before leaving MDC, I made PDF files of each and every blog entry. While I could not read the 600 or so entries, I can safely say that 98% of them were extremely frustrated. Now suppose the markets go down in the month of Sept … these bastards at MDC will have a video update patting themselves on the back and telling everone that this is jsut the beginning … please hang, the correction is jsut gettting started … and poor current subscribers will once again be like deer in the middle of a highway frozen by cars headlights comming at them!!!! Now, suppose the markets go up for another 6 months after the Sept. correction (and we ARE having a correction now) .. we get the usual rally into Nov/Dec … Claus says “BUY” everything … then in Feb the correction starts again … OMFG … can you imagine the pain then … ??????? I only subsribed to them for knowledge … I never traded a SINGLE trade using MDC or Safe Money report .. Do you know he still had INVERSE ETF’s such as Short Dow 30 Proshares and Short QQQ ProShares in there!!!!! 6 Months into a Rally and these inverse ETF’s are still there? Makes a lot of sense … all I can say is that MAM are taking advantage of the common investor problem … trading paralysis … people who simply place their trust in some stupid web site story … I mean has anyone learnt ANYTHING???? Most of the people out there are SCAM artists!!! These people take advantage of the one principle that this contry was formed on ….. TRUST ….. and now, that trust is gone …. HOW MANY BUBBLES HAVE WE GONE THROUGH … 1987, 1997, 2000, 2009 … DO PEOPLE HAVE such SHORT Memories …. WALL STREET IS A GAME … People like Martin, Clauss are predators that prey on people to give them HOPE … hope to make up for losses through a veil of “You can trust us, we will be there for you” … WTF!! Everyone! Investing is the MOST difficult game in town! The odds in Vegas are better for that matter … I suggest if you do not have done your own independant research then do not do play this game … With all the Macro-Economic changes going on, who knows where to invest and when? Learning and understanding what makes the market tick is not an easy task … Good Luck to all … until my next rant .. forgot to end with … Weird markets for sure but my sense is that we have seen all this before and we will see it again. Bubble after bubble keeps on getting created and burst … more money is printed to inflate and the cycle goes on … all the while, people lose their shirts and are asked one more time to come back in for one more bumpy ride (usually at the TOP of a Bull run) … lemmings … lemmings. The pain is forgotten as those who lost swear off the markets forever, but the newbie’s come back for more with a dose of bravado thinking they have figured out the markets until they too lose it all … I think the odds are better in Vegas no than on Wall Street for the common person? Enter at your own risk … ahh, welcome to the Casino!
Bottom Line to me: We are to blame for signing up for MDCP because as idiots we never checked the independant TRACK record of Clauss’s profile … simple … if it smell’s like a rat … it is a RAT …
Review by Dave, August 31, 2009
I am wondering whether the MCP serves any purpose at this point and whether it has occurred to Martin to dissolve it. The guidance within MCP is probably competent in a bear market, but a bear market hasn’t happened during the life of the MCP.
Review by Axclr8, August 31, 2009
Real TRADERS would have know that March 9th was the SENTIMENT BOTTOM!! Damn Martin and Clauss’s strategy was just to suck you into their world and keep your subscription(s) alive. That is all …
Review by Dave, August 31, 2009
I’m not that cynical–I believe that Martin and Claus were, and are, sincere in their efforts to do well by their subscribers. Their failing is, IMO, their idealogue mentality (despite opposing views within the Weiss group by some pretty smart folks!) which led to self-blinding about the reality of the market. Perhaps Martin’s thinking slipped into the well-worn groove of his father’s epic story of the ‘29 crash and in his eagerness to reprise the role of dear old Dad, he tossed aside his objectivity. Of course Martin is also a businessman but I don’t think this was a conspiracy intended to deceive anyone. I think he genuinely wanted to help people survive the bear market, and was sure he could deliver that help. He was a little too sure of himself. He and Claus mainly managed to deceive themselves. Of course I may be wrong and it was all a dastardly plot and actually both Martin and Claus were heavily invested long and made a killing in the March-June rally….but I doubt it.
Review by Portfolio Man, August 31, 2009
Dave,
I don’t think he intentionally wants to lose you money but they presented themselves as professional opportunistic traders that can make you money in any market(ie showed a winning record of 66 out of 68 wins…than strung up 9 consecutive losers after the service opens????). They don’t have the skill set or strategy to trade succesfully, just see my other postings. They tell you news that is already baked in. For example in March, the Dow crashes from 14K to 7K and he is screaming SELL, SELL, SELL right now or you will lose everything!!!! Or his latest one 2 weeks ago in this new forum: BRIC countries are on a roll and up more than 100%. No kidding. The BRIC play would have been more helpful back in March 2009 and not August 2009 when they peaked. Right after that webinar, they China index lost 12%. His calls are way to late and you cannot win at trading if you wait for things to double, than notice, than buy. You will be in the poor house quickly. But when he presents these things like the global forum, he makes it sound like he knew about this 6 months ago and was ahead of the call. Just for clarity, I subscribed to both Safe Money and MCP at the same time and there was never no mention of buying BRIC ETFS. I do think his marketing hype is intentional to make more sales and hopes his team of clowns can deliver. So far, none of them can live up to his marketing hype/bs. Like I said above, there has to be laws protecting consumers from false and deceitful advertisements.
Just some thoughts.
Review by Axclr8, August 31, 2009
Portfolio Man and Dave:
Martin and Co. started to recommend BRIC stocks precisely at the time they were at a TOP and massive imbalances / greed started to enter the market. Most of China’s stimulus money was going into buying stocks:
http://benbittrolff.blogspot.com/2009/08/china-stocks-going-into-free-fall-mode.html
Look, these guys are simple Marketers!! Even their forum vidoes that they are LIVE are pre-recorded. Heck, one one video Martin interjected and said “that it is 12:41 and that we are running out of time but we will go beyoind the 1PM cut off” and it was exactly at 12:41 …. that is how manipulative they are … who can trust these folks … they jsut paint a good story … nothing else … I am just glad I never followed any of the recommendations .. oh yeah, one day the Safe Money Report sent an e-mail on Saturday to purchase stocks in “GROW” … but they never gave the correct ticker symbol … finally Monday AM they send out an e-mail with the correct ticket at 10:30 but by that time the stock has surged from 7 to 9!! Ummm c’mon guys … this smells like a RAT to me …
Review by Dave, August 31, 2009
The Weiss service called “International ETF Trader” is the one that has been including BRIC picks.
I agree that Weiss et al misrepresent their trading success and do a mighty fine marketing job, but just about every other service does as well. Sort of comes with the territory, no? I have lost far more money following Robert Hsu’s and Louis Navellier’s picks than I did following the MCP picks.
And yes, Claus’s approach was certainly not “flexible” as we were promised at the outset.
Review by Goldbug, September 1, 2009
After this recent rally, I learned that the stock market has nothing to do with fundamentals but stock pricing and value which is part of technical trading. I have missed out on most of this rally because of this service telling me that the stock market will fall when in fact the stock market is based on the herd mentality. I had another service that also traded on fundamentals called the Red Flag Insider by Andrew Gordon and he too believed the market was going to fall back in March. Larry Edelson from Martin Weiss’ other service Real Wealth Report was more accurate when he pointed out that the stock market was going to rocket to 9,000 in March and it did! Claus and Larry ironically works in the same firm Martin Weiss and has opposing views of the market in which I now believe Larry to be the more accurate trader because he uses cyclical trading. I too believe the economy is in the crappers but your emotions and fundamental sentiment has no place in trading the stock market.
I cancelled the Million Dollar Contrarian Portfolio and joined the Real Wealth Report Instead which I highly recommend over this service. I had lost a ton of money from Claus’ recommendations but gained it back with Larry’s. The customer service was great with my switch over and I give Martin Weiss that much. i also submitted a separate review of Real Wealth Report and gave it 5 stars.
Review by Axclr8, September 1, 2009
All: Please note that the pay structure at Weiss Research is based primarily on how many subscriptions each Analyst has. So, if 100,000 people sign up for on average in a year for Real Wealth, Larry will get 100,000 x .47 as a bonus + regular base pay which is at the min. 150,000. Thought everyone should know this fact. Larry has made Money for some people but he got lucky IMO. Wait till you see what happens to China’s currency: http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2009/09/how-will-china-handle-yuan.html
MAM / Larry et all have not even mentioned what is going on. THEY ARE JUST BUY THE BRICS’s BUY THE BRICS BUY THE BRICS!! Well, let’s see what happens … Markets never do what you expect them to do … and the Shanghai Index is down from 3600 to 2600 …. hummm, that’s a BEAR Market to me … it’s crossed BELOW the 200 MA:
http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=000001.SS#symbol=000001.SS;range=1y
and is trending down … but anyone at Penis Research saying anything?
There is a lot more but you need to do your research ..
Review by Portfolio Man, September 2, 2009
Axclr8,
If you want to know when a top of a market or a top of a stock has been put in, just check MAM. When the market crashed in March 09, they said to sell everything and buy inverse funds. At the peak of the rebound, they said to buy FDO and AAN (after a 100% run-up), they said to buy them. If you did indeed bought the inverse funds and/FDO and AAN, you are at least down 10% or more and some even around 35% loss. Martin in UnSafe Money 2 months ago said to buy UNG at $13.81 and today it is around $10.60 or so for another 22%+ loss. I got rid of them because they were losing me money hand over fist. After their China webinar, the index went down 12% over the next 3 days. These guys are terrible. If you use their research, do the complete opposite and you will profit.
Review by disgruntal, September 2, 2009
Portfolio Man…. today Martin will tell you that all the other loses are compensated by telling you about Gold!.
Review by Axclr8, September 2, 2009
ALL: Regarding Gold, whenever the Fed lowers short term rates so far that the 3-Month T-Bill Yield is below the Inflation rate, that is tremendously BULLISH for Gold …. But is MAM aka Ponzi Research telling ANYONE that in Unsafe Money Report? NO! We are in Deflationary Cycle until MId next year … and then Inflation will creep up ….. Look, each and every day I see TV ads telling you to be Bullish on Gold … that is a contrariran indicator …. MAM is SOOOOOO bullish on Gold … Guess what? Whatch Gold bottom into December as Deflation becomes more mainstrain …. the Dollar surges etc…. There you go … another theory debunked against MAM!!! Dangit! Understaning the Markets takes a long time … MAM just is great at Marketing …. and each Analyst makes 250K a year. Why would they invest in stocks????
Review by Dave, September 2, 2009
Larry E. is very bullish on gold, but has actually said recently that he suspects gold will decline before it breaks out. But that was before today’s move up. I’m buying.
Review by Elmer Fundd, September 3, 2009
Are we in the realm of less worse news is…. good news? lol.
Every recession is a unique child and I think this one will be so hard to call in terms of timing. There will be corrections, plunges and rallies based on sentiment more than intrinsics. With our debt levels and toxic pools we may be in for a volatile L shaped recovery with room for one or more moderately severe falls. A cousin of Japan’s lost decade rather than 1929 with the consequences of our problems dragging us back for many years. I don’t see that it will be easy to find the gems for pennies in the pound, or time the big ups and downs. I wouldn’t act on any adviser at this time - just study what others have to say and take my chances - and at some point when I clear a few losses and make a bit (I hope)- just enjoy every day for what it is and stop spending so much of my time and mental energy on this game.
Review by Portfolio Man, September 3, 2009
disgruntal,
I agree, everything is old news by the time they tell you and want to trade it. They can never be successful traders.
Review by disgruntal, September 4, 2009
Elmer.. could not agree more with your comment!!!
Review by Goldbug, September 8, 2009
I have learned to dislike fundamental traders as they are set in their ways and never change. They are really perma-bulls or perma-bears and Claus missed the great March rally. He was so blinded by fundamentals that he didn’t see that cost-cutting meant profits and traded down. He also reinforced my opinion that I received from another fundamental trader. Follow the fundamentals and you’ll lose big!! I traded this fundamental service for Larry’s Real Wealth as he is more flexible about gold and is willing to change his opinion based on cyclical charts. Claus would have stuck with his bad trade ideas to the end when the value of Martin’s portfolio goes to zero. When you see a fundamentalist trader, cancel your subscription and don’t follow the trades.
Review by Axclr8, September 9, 2009
Gold has TOPPED: Clauss loves it ….
http://www.moneyandmarkets.com/gold-breaks-1000-an-ounce-what%e2%80%99s-next-%e2%80%a6-3-35386
Review by Goldbug, September 9, 2009
Of course. Claus is happy when the markets go his unflexible ways. At least Larry is willing to see a pullback. The world according to Martin or Claus is a world in which stocks are always down because the Leading Economic Indicators says it’s down. Well the stock markets can care less about the LEI!! They want to make money even when the markets are down. Trading stocks is their bread and butter and they won’t stop just because the LEI is down. Fundamentalist trader are losers.
Review by Portfolio Man, September 11, 2009
All,
Just curious if Claus is still sitting on his ETFs from June when I left (SEF, PSQ, etc..). What a disaster if he has. They have to be down about 50%+ if he does.
Review by disgruntal, September 12, 2009
PortfolioMan…
You forgot to ask about his terrible choice of AAN and FDO?!!!!
Review by Portfolio Man, September 12, 2009
disgruntal,
Oh yeah, I guess Martin and Claus forgot rule 1 of their 11 rules which was PRESERVE CAPITAL/KEEP YOUR MONEY SAFE!!!! 50% down on their calls in 5 months WTF!!! That is what happens when he has no strategy and/or stop losses. These guys are terrible traders. they need to shut down their service.
Review by Dave, September 13, 2009
Surely Claus is out of the inverses by now………..right? He’s belatedly reinvented himself as a bull. The two consumer stocks are sort of neutral, and the gold-related stocks are up rather nicely. And the other ~half of the portfolio was not invested as of when I got my refund. Overall, not doing that badly if we ignore the missed March-June rally.
Review by disgruntal, September 13, 2009
Dave…. I agree he is doing much better because of gold but the 2 consumer stocks are down 20%.. so not that great.
Wonder about the inverse….
May be now that he is a bull, he has fund a series of stocks that have make up for all the loses…
Review by IanA, September 14, 2009
Two retailers/ #1 = -23% the other #2 = -18.82%
Short ETF = -18.37%
Gold stocks up, but what gold stock isn’t? Remember they are only 2.5% of the portfolio so the portfolio losses are still much greater than the gain in gold. The three loosing positions represent over 30% on the equity money invested. There’s no money being made when all looses and gains(gains, what a joke that is) are added together.
The latest pick is a Blue Chip that even a 10 year older would know is probably a good company to own for 15 years or more to get a payoff from it. Again the timing in this pick is really scary. Just coming off a nearly 7 month bull rally.
Review by IanA, September 14, 2009
Here’s the link to http://www.martinweiss.com, it shows the performance of the recommendations (with disclaimers and modifiers)of the publishing services offered by Weiss LLC. It’s funny they list the performance of The Foundation Alliance but not the MDCP. Maybe the SEC and FINRA might be interested in this “oversight”. I’ll call the local SEC office in Miami tomorrow and inquire. I hope for his sake he’s not making a 2006 for himself all over again. Here’s the link:
http://www.martinweiss.com/publications/performancehistory.asp
Review by Ginvestor, September 14, 2009
I stuck with this service for 5 months hoping that the returns would start to go positive but finally I decided enough was enough. The timing on shorting the market was terrible and the war rooms were addressing questions that were for the most part neutral. I had only part of one of my questions answered. From the blog comments I read most subscribers questions were ignored. Claus seems to be good at analyzing the market but he is a lousy stock picker in my opinion. It is too bad that so many put trust in this program only to incur losses. The gold mining stocks were good picks and are doing very well but they represented a whopping 5% total of the portfolio. The other bad picks easily erased all of those gains! Weiss customer service is first rate and handled my refund request promptly.
Review by Dave, September 14, 2009
Thanks, Ian. I am surprised that there is still an inverse holding. Sorry to hear about the new lame pick—Claus seems to have a real knack. Re the performance page, it is odd that they exclude the MCP. Larry E’s Real Wealth service is also not there…must be the nature of the connection with Weiss Inc. FA is doing somewhat better than reported there, due to current metal gains. Performance is non-impressive so far.
Review by disgruntal, September 16, 2009
Ian… so, he is still holding his loser retailers… interesting… hopefully, they will stage a come back soon.
If you check the performance of all their services… ALL LOSERS.. all of them… urghhhh. They only post what they have sold… may be they are holding tons of winners <>
I don’t think we see Larry’s Real wealth or “Unsafe Money” because they are not full blown services…. just a guess
Review by Portfolio Man, September 16, 2009
disgruntal,
They don’t disclosure the newsletter performances. Also, I kept Real Wealth and his first reco was short gold. Another great call when I first join the service. I really don’t think these guys know how to trade (including Larry to a degree). Lucky he was long because no matter what you owned, you were up. I still cannot believe there are members on MCP. I am sure FA will be a as well. Martin doesn’t really have any succesful trading services, just good marketing hype. I hope people read this and stay away!!
Review by IanA, September 17, 2009
What a waste of time today’s War Room was. The acting was like that seen in a middle school play as done by 12 year alders. Tom, Weiss’s damage control dim whit and Claus, no Dr. Chicken Little at today’s show. Everyday our 2 retailers are down. A went from $36 where we bought it to $26 today and F went from $35 where we bought it to $25 today. both down around 20% and he still likes them! Claus I will buy das glasses for you to see what you are doing to my money. Our latest pick Joan Crawford would have loved as it….. (hint)
I’m so angry and disgusted at the mess this Weiss company has caused me. I have to stop for know as I am so pissed at todays waste of time War Room I don’t even want to think about it right now. I’ll return when I cool down.
Review by Portfolio Man, September 17, 2009
IanA,
I am sorry to hear. Weiss is toxic and thier marketing hype cannot live up to any performance standards. At some point, you need to leave Weiss and start to make money again. It took me a good month to de-tox myself because I thought the market was a bear market rally which it has been more like a bull run. I am not saying go hog wild on the long side but I think the market going down 50% last year from the peak was overdone and right now is about the right level (around Dow 10K). Good luck on your decision and hope you get back to making profits soon. I hate seeing people lose money and having Wiess being the cause.
Review by Tadp, September 17, 2009