Author/Editor
Tom Essaye
Publisher
Weiss Research
Description
Real-money portfolio of Martin Weiss’ million dollars, previously managed by Claus Vogt, promises to alert you 48 hours before trades are made, with monthly update newsletter and phone helpline.
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I’m glad I heard about this site. I wish I had known about it before I hooked up with the MCP and Martin Weiss. Who is Tom Essaye the VP of Products and Publications? Is he some type of damage control person for the MCP? If so he’s going to need the help of Jesus, Mohammad, Buddha, Mosses and God to get this mess back on solid ground. I’m exiting tomorrow on Friday the 17TH. Another day of more horrendous losses! This is not what you sold us Martin Weiss. You sold me and a lot of people a bill of goods. Dad’s gone now and tomorrow I’ll be gone from this terrible experience. Google The Foundation for the Study of Cycles for the many truth Martin and Mogey never mentioned. Wiki them also for a list of free software and free services that use timing cycles, stocks work on a 40.68 month cycle. This Weiss exclusive isn’t so exclusive as he would have one believe. Watch out for this guy, he is a slick operator who should be working for Goldman Sachs.
Ian and others,
If I recall correctly, your cancellation date is July 19. So if you stay a member until Monday to listen to the special war room, you are past the expiration date and will only get back 8 months worth of refund. This is a ploy to keep people guessing as to what is new. Please get a full refund, nothing he says is worth losing 4 months of subscription fee. THIS IS ANOTHER GIMMICK/MARKETING PLOY!!
I know I seem obsessed with this but I have lost a ton of money with this guy and it still burns me up. Sorry, if I seem to be going overboard with Martin and MCP but I don’t want anybody to get burned anymore.
PortfolioMan,
I agree with you PortfolioMan. I would like to share with you this video… what he is saying is really good and actually apply to all of us
(http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eT_MO7Z6HyE)
All the things he said is exactly what Martin & Claus have not done, etc.
1) Claus is always early and wrong. He does not accept it. We are all entitled to be wrong.. even 50% at times.. but they cut loses early and move on.. and hopefully the other 50% make up for it but
2) He never sells when the market is telling him that he is wrong… basically he is losing money
3)… and while he is very smart… does not change when everything change because he thinks his academics make it right.
But above all… I think the problem is us… we should have walked away once we saw the loses but hoped it would change.
disgruntal,
I agree, we should have been smart enough to move on. However, his data points and the way it was marketed it was very compelling. Plus Martin was right last year about the market tanking, so he had credibility. As for Claus, everything about him was Martin building up his credibility. I never knew who Claus was before MCP. Thanks for the youtube video link above. I will listen to it today. I like Dennis Gartman and believe in him. I just wish his newsletter was more affordable. By the way, Dennis doesn’t believe we are anywhere near or going to be in a depression (especially a Great Depression). Complete opposite view of Martin and Claus.
That was Claus big fault, no stop losses, purchased SEF 4 days before the stress test results were announed (very reckless), purchased the S&P and NASDAQ inverse in the midst of their bull runs (or bear bounce per Claus). Either way, he was either very late or very early. Either way, he lost. He broke a lot of trading rules that Dennis probably mentions.
thanks again,
PortfolioMan, I am with you. I love Gartman but his letter is too expensive. want to join forces and buy a group subscription? 🙂
After the market closed Claus sent a note saying that for those who bought the 20% additional shares of SH, that they need to sell it. The S&P has stayed above 920 for 2 days. Finally the man acts and speaks.
Can you believe that I got a call from Weiss Research to see if I want to join the timing tool?. I told the person ‘NO’ because I have already lost too much money with them and he says… this may be better than the other… something sort of like Larry is better than Claus, Mike and Martin as he is more technical, etc…unbelievable!
disgruntal,
Wow, they actually called you!!! They must really be hurting after the MCP fiasco. If he has any MCP member left, I would be surprised. I thought 80,000 people saw that Mystery Timing viewing. He must have had a bad take rate if they are calling you. Not to mention a lot of pissed off MCP members. I wouldn’t even think about joining it. He is just a marketing machine. Plus he paid $5M for a portion of the foundation. I don’t think he is recouping his investment anytime soon. Here is a hint Martin — use your cycle theory to make up for your lack of membership. If you can turn $10K into $360K, you don’t need members, you have the secret sauce and can keep it all to yourself. Good Luck Martin!
I can’t believe Claus doubled down on SH, he is clueless. Is he still holding SEF and PSQ as well?? Both of them are getting crushed as well. He said he started using the cycle information for his June purchases and they are all down. This should be a big red flag to new people “DONT BUY THE NEW SUBSCRIPTION”. If he gets new members based on people viewing this wonderful website, then you should lose your money!! I hope this is helping people.
By the way, I am up 12% on my overall portfolio since leaving at the end of June. Now I got rid of the toxic readings and am doing much better. He really made a dent in my portfolio since I lost 40% just before I joined him, he lost me an additional 15% with MCP and ETF Crisis trader and now he says he is wrong and you should sell the inverse funds after a 40% run up in the market because he sees more upside. This is just reckless and wrong. Like I said on his blog, if I just sat on my hands and did nothing, I would have only suffered a 10% loss in total (versus the 50%+ that I have to dig out of at the moment). I wish I never received any emails from MAM.
By the way, Intel and JPM both called a bottom to the economy this week. If that is not a powerful indicator, I don’t know what is. Martin better get a clue otherwise he will lose more members. Eventually he will be right again but I can’t afford to listen to him because I would be insolvent before he is right.
I just called to cancel my subscription before the Friday deadline and was told (you’ll never guess!) that the deadline for a full refund has again been extended, this time until July 23rd. The idea is of course to allow current subscribers to attend the War Room this Monday. I am happy to stick around for a few more days, and look forward to Claus’ latest pow-wow, although I think I can already imagine what he will say—most of it is probably contained in his latest alert.
Dave – keep us posted on the war room briefing. If he changes his mind (meaning turns bullish), members that lost a lot of money should blast him with questions and blast him on his blog!!! The bloggers knew more than him and we paid him for that bad advice. That is terrible and unethical. He is a joke and should apologize to all members for his lack of ability to pick stocks. Claus has no proven method. The 66 out of 68 wins he referred to was bs and only Bernie Madoff did better and you see where that landed his investors. Sad day that Madoff and Weiss are used in the same phrase. Maybe that is cruel but how do you go from 66 wins out of 68 trades to 0 for 9. It doesn’t happen unless you lie and do false advertising.
Thx again Dave
text removed by admin for copyright concerns.
@ Portfolio Man, on July 16, 2009 said:
Dave – keep us posted.
here is the answer
Claus wrote in his latest ALERT that he will SELL the complete last addition to the portfolio (Intent to Sell (SH): 48-Hour Head-Start Alert!)
disgruntal,
Great clip. You need to post it on MCP’s blog if you are still a member. Claus and Martin need the lesson. He does the complete opposite of Dennis:
1) Claus and Martin never admits he is wrong (basically in denial). He made members double down and now he issued an alert to sell.
2) I don’t think he was early but was late. The Dow went from Dow 14K to Dow 7K and started to bounce. So he bought inverse funds. Probably 1,000 more points to drop to the downside and probably 3,000 points of upside. Not a good risk/reward.
3) The charts were all going against him.
4) Bought SEF 4 days before the stress test and his only answer was “they were rigged or bogus”. Regardless of what he thought, it restored some level of confidence and banks started to pay back the TARP. He still said he thought banks were going down with no reason behind it. Once again he was wrong.
5) Dennis is not calling for any depression where that is Martin and Claus big claim to fame! So far, Martin and Claus are on an island of their own.
By the time Martin and Claus are right, we will be insolvent and bankrupt. They are fighting government stimulus from around the world. They can keep beating the drums and they may be right at some point, but we cannot be foolish and wait for that day. My goal is to make money not lose more because I have an opposing view to everyone else. I hope other members wake up.
Thanks again disgruntal
I find the reviews very informative. I too came very close to subscribing to the Million Dollar Contrarian Portfolio but could not justify the expense. Martin appears to be a knowledgable analyst but maybe too smart for his own good. His investment advice is driven by fundamental analysis without any regard for the best market indicator available, price. Many people try to use complicated and technical information to predict where the market will go but I’ve found that complicated does not imply better. If everyone on this site used a simple 50/200 day EMA crossover to enter and exit the market, they would have preserved 30+% for their investment capital in 2008. This is a fact. We would be waiting patiently for the market to recover and for the “golden cross” to occur. That has happend in certain ETF but guess what, they are not inverse funds. If you are investing in inverse ETF’s during this market rally, you have zero regard or trust in the market which already contains all available information. My advice is to NOT listen to the Doomsday Naysayers but to use simple technical anaysis in designing your investment portfolio. All of your investment buy and sell decisions should be based one the price only. Predictive analysis is good to do but as a forecasting and analysis tool only. The price never lies. For a fraction of the price, one could have subscribed to http://www.fibtimer.com with very little risk, and plenty of reward to their portfolio.
PortfolioMan,
I called to cancel MDCP and they extended me a few days so i could hear what Claus has to say monday…. I decided to wait til then just to see what he was going to say. I will let you know and cancel after.
BTW – I have an acquaintance that subscribes to TGL and he told me that Dennis believes that things are changing and the recession is over. That does not mean that data coming out of the economy will not be bad for a while and that unemployment will not surge to 10 or even 12… but the tides are changing. Not sure about any details as this is something this guy mentioned to me at a party this weekend and all second hand. I do not have access to the letter so I don’t know but I thought you would find it interesting.
disgruntal,
Thanks for the update on TGL. I watched that video and Dennis eludes to it as well and does not believe we will go into a depression. I am starting to gain some ground again in my portfolio. However, I am tyring to figure out another newletter or 2 to have as reference for stock picks.
Please keep me posted on today’s war room. If Claus turns bullish, I am going bearish. We could have made a lot of money betting against him.
Thx
How can anyone call Claus smart? Please look at your portfolio’s performance. Does it look like a smart man put it together? Are you satisfied with the ‘smart’ mans picks?
Well PortfolioMan…. I can honestly say, you did not miss anything. I would have expected Martin & Claus to be more convincing about having people stay…. not really. There was nothing on what he said that made me change my mind at all.
Claus outlook is the same. He will only change his mind about his investing strategy if the S&P makes it above 950 and stays there. Same with the 200 average for the Dow.
I have to imagine that anyone that decided to hold until this session will leave.. but I may be wrong
I agree with disgruntal—the meeting did not reveal anything new in the pipeline and much time was spent shoring up the rationale for the original contrarian assumption that the market will be going down sharply one of these days or weeks. I guess they don’t want to give away any of the short-term plans as they need to give people a reason for staying. Larry E is now saying gold is likely heading down to 800, while Claus suggests the recent gains may be the start of the move to 1000. Martin casually dismisses the differences in opinion of these people who are BOTH USING the cycle theory: “I don’t tell them what to say.” OK, but again, what does it say about the precision of the cycle-based predictions? Wasn’t precise timing the WHOLE POINT??
Does anyone have any rational commentary on how Larry Edelson’s just released “Peek Into The Future” with plainly states that the DOW is heading up (with possible small down move) fits in with Claus’ hanging on to his inverse ETF positions until/unless the S&P 500 goes above 950 and stays there.
It seems to me that Weiss Research is playing both sides so that when the market breaks either way at least one of their major “services” will be correct. (Side note: with Martin’s recent track record the market will probably go sideways making all their subscribers lose money; with one still claiming to be right in their newly updated sales pitch when the market finally does move.)
It appears to me that Martin does not strongly believe in either of the two services which if true means he does not believe his own marketing. Unless I am missing something Martin is just another charlatan out to make a buck off of the sheepeople.
disgruntal and Dave,
Thanks for the update. I am surprised they just don’t close the service. Maybe after this round of people leaving, they will. That service is no different than Un-Safe Money with a couple of more picks and a lot more money for the subscription. Yeah, Larry called for a gold to go down and it has not looked back. If he losses his touch, MAM has no credibility. I just picked up Larry’s subscription for the 30 day trial when I cancelled MCP and I am not sure what to think so far. Once again, I followed another MAM suggestion which was to hedge gold and it is down. I guess I should not be surprised as every subscription I bought from them, my first trades were down.
Also, I cancelled my UnSafe Money right after the latest subscription came out because all they did was advertise the cycle thoery. Well guess what, so did Larry’s edition on Friday. I don’t really think MAM know what direction to follow. This cycle analysis is great at predicting longer term trends in the market. However, they are tyring to use them for short term trends which doesn’t work. Supposedly, MCP and Real Weatlth is using them and the picks are losing. I have no confidence in them anymore or anything they say. However, they do cover themselves by someone always being long, someone in between and the perma bear. So they can always say, MAM nailed it. No kidding that is like saying I think the market will go up and down tomorrow. I will be cancelling Larry pretty soon if he picks like this.
Thx again
PortfolioMan/Dave,
Larry is much better than the others and he does set stop losses. The reality of it is, nobody will get it right all the time.
The interesting thing is that I have been reading a few other analysts and they are all for gold as of late. Same with investing in other currencies like australia (FXA), canada (FXC) or Brazil (BZF). The gold does contradict Larry’s forecast for the short term for gold. The currencies do not.
Martin, Claus and Mike are terrible pickers. Timing is everything and so is control of loses…. a concept that they do not seem to comprehend. I find the whole thing disturbing.
Time to join JT on his newsletter site where we are likely to get a little more insight into other things.
An expensive lesson for all of us that tried these guys.
BTW – the S&P is at 950 …. will he change his strategy?. Of course, NOT!